Daily Archives: December 28, 2022

In the 4th century BC, the Greek philosopher Plato theorised that humans do not perceive the world as it really is. All we can see is shadows on a wall. In 2003, the Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom published a paper which formalised an argument to prove Plato was right. The paper argued that one of the following three statements is true:

1. We will go extinct fairly soon

2. Advanced civilisations dont produce simulations containing entities which think they are naturally-occurring sentient intelligences. (This could be because it is impossible.)

3. We are in a simulation

The reason for this is that if it is possible, and civilisations can become advanced without self-destructing, then there will be an enormous number of simulations, and it is vanishingly unlikely that any randomly selected civilisation (like us) is a naturally-occurring one.

Some people like me find this argument pretty convincing. As we will hear later, some of us have added twists. But some people go even further, and speculate about how we might bust out of the simulation.

One such person is Roman Yampolskiy, a computer scientist at the University of Louisville, and director of a cyber-security lab. He has just published a paper (here) in which he views the challenge of busting out of the simulation through the lens of cyber security. The paper starts from the hypothesis that we are in a simulation and asks if we can do something about it. The paper is a first step: it doesnt aim to provide a working solution. He explains his thinking in the latest episode of The London Futurist Podcast.

Roman is pretty convinced that we are in a simulation, for a number of reasons. Quantum physics observer effects remind him of how in video games, graphics are only rendered if a players is looking at the environment. Evolutionary algorithms dont work well after a week or two, which suggests that engineering is required to generate sufficiently complex agents. And the hard problem of consciousness becomes easier if you consider us as players in a simulation.

Some people think the simulation hypothesis is time-wasting and meaningless because it could never be tested, but Roman argues it is possible to bring the hypothesis into the domain of science using approaches from cyber security and AI safety. For instance, the idea of AI boxing isolating a superintelligent AI to prevent it from causing harm is simply inverted by the simulation hypothesis, placing us inside the box instead of a superintelligence. He thinks we should allocate as much intellectual effort to busting out of the simulation as we do to the hypothesis itself.

Most people who have looked at it in detail argue that AI boxing is impractical, but Roman speculates that analysing the hypothesis might either teach us how to escape, or how to prevent an AI from escaping. That is probably not a true parallel, though. The AI in a box is much smarter than us, whereas we are presumably much less smart than our simulators.

An AI in a box will plead with us, cajole us, and threaten us very convincingly. Can we do these things to our simulators? Pleading doesnt seem to work, and the simulators also dont seem to care about the suffering within the world they have simulated. This makes you wonder about their motivations, and perhaps fear them. Lots of possible motivations have been suggested, including entertainment, and testing a scientific hypothesis.

We do have one advantage over the simulators. They have to foil all our attempts to escape, whereas we only have to succeed one time. This makes Roman optimistic about escape in the long term. But perhaps the simulators would reset the universe if they see us trying to escape, re-winding it to before that point.

To paraphrase what Woody Allen once said about God, the trouble with the simulators is they are under-achievers. Either they dont care about immense injustice and suffering, or they are unable to prevent it. Some people find this existence of suffering (what theologians call the Problem of Evil) to be an argument against the simulation hypothesis. One (perhaps rather callous) way to escape the Problem of Evil in the hypothesis is to posit that the people who we observe to be suffering terribly are actually analogous to non-player characters in a video game.

In fact, if we do live in a simulation, it is likely that a great deal of our universe is painted in. This can lead you to solipsism, the idea that you are the only person who really exists.

The simulation hypothesis may be the best explanation of the Fermi Paradox. Enrico Fermi, a 20th century physicist, asked why, in a vast universe with billions of galaxies that is 13.7 billion years old, we have never seen a signal from another intelligent civilisation. An advanced civilisation could, for instance, periodically occlude a star with large satellites in order to send a signal. Travelling at the speed of light, this signal would cross our galaxy in a mere 100,000 years, just 0.0007% of the universes history. So why dont we see any signals?

One suggestion is that we are being quarantined until we are more mature like the prime directive in Star Trek. But it seems implausible that 100% of civilisations would obey any such rule or norm for billions of years. An alternative explanation is that the arrival of superintelligence is always fatal, but if so, why would the superintelligences also always go extinct?

The Dark Forest scenario posits that every advanced civilisation keeps quiet because they fear malevolent actors. But in a sufficiently large population of intelligences, some would surely be nonchalant, negligent, or just plain arrogant enough to breach this rule. After all, we ourselves have sent signals, and there are still people who want to do so. Other civilisations might send signals because they are going extinct from causes they cannot stop, and they want to broadcast that they did exist, or to ask for help.

It is not hard to conclude that the universe is empty of intelligent life apart from us, which would be explained by the simulation hypothesis.

It may be that the purpose of our simulation, if indeed we are in one, is to discover the best way to create superintelligence. The current moment is the most significant in all human history, and the odds against having been born at just that time are staggering. Of course, somebody had to be, but for any random person, the chances are tiny. So maybe the simulators have only modelled this particular time in this particular part of a universe, and all the rest both time and space is painted in.

In which case, the purpose of the simulation may be something to do with the run-up to the creation of superintelligence. Perhaps the simulators are working out the best way to create a friend, or a colleague. Maybe there are millions of similar simulations in process, and they are creating an army, or a party. I call this the Economic Twist to the simulation hypothesis, and you can read it in full here.

Elon Musk is on record saying that we are almost certainly living in a simulation, so perhaps Roman should pitch him for funds to help bust us out. We may never find out what is really going on, but perhaps the answer is provided by Elons Razor - the hypothesis that whatever is the most entertaining explanation is probably the correct one.

Roman concludes that if he disappears one day, then we should conclude that he has managed to bust out. If he reappears, it was just a temporary Facebook ban.

The London Futurist Podcast

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Are We Living In A Simulation? Can We Break Out Of It?

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Macau – United States Department of State

Posted: at 9:51 pm

Transparency of the Regulatory System

The GOM has transparent policies and laws that establish clear rules and do not unnecessarily impede investment. The basic elements of a competition policy are set out in Macaus Commercial Code.

The GOM will normally conduct a three-month public consultation when amending or making legislation, including investment laws, and will prepare a draft bill based on the results of the public consultation. The lawmakers will discuss the draft bill before putting it to a final vote. All of the processes are transparent and consistent with international norms.

Public comments received by the GOM are not made available online to the public. The draft bills are made available at the Legislative Assemblys website (http://www.al.gov.mo/zh/), while this website http://www.io.gov.mo/ links to the GOMs Printing Bureau, which publishes laws, rules, and procedures.

Macaus anti-corruption agency the Commission Against Corruption (known by its Portuguese acronym CCAC) carries out ombudsman functions to safeguard rights, freedoms, and legitimate interests of individuals and to ensure the impartiality and efficiency of public administration.

Macaus law on the budgetary framework (Decree 15/2017) aims to reinforce monitoring of public finances and to enhance transparency in the preparation and execution of the fiscal budget.

Macau does not owe debt to any countries. The public can retrieve up-to-date data on public finance from the Financial Services Bureau website https://www.dsf.gov.mo/financialReport/?lang=en at all times.

International Regulatory Considerations

Macau is a member of WTO and adopts international norms. The GOM notified all draft technical regulations to the WTO Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade.

Macau, as a signatory to the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), has achieved a 100 percent rate of implementation commitments.

Legal System and Judicial Independence

Under one country, two systems, Macau maintains Continental European law as the foundation of its legal system, which is based on the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary. The current judicial process is procedurally competent, fair, and reliable. Macau has a written commercial law and contract law. The Commercial Code is a comprehensive source of commercial law, while the Civil Code serves as a fundamental source of contractual law. Courts in Macau include the Court of Final Appeal, Intermediate Courts, and Primary Courts. There is also an Administrative Court, which has jurisdiction over administrative and tax cases. These provide an effective means for enforcing property and contractual rights. At present, the Court of Final Appeal has three judges; the Intermediate Courts have nine judges; and the Primary Courts have 33 judges. The Public Prosecutions Office has 38 prosecutors.

Macau passed a National Security Law in 2009 that prohibits and punishes crimes against national security, including treason, secession, sedition, subversion, theft of state secrets, and collusion with foreign political organizations. Preparatory acts leading to any of these crimes may also constitute a criminal offence.

Macaus courts still have jurisdiction over all local cases except those related to defense and foreign affairs. The 2009 National Security Law did not affect this jurisdiction.

Laws and Regulations on Foreign Direct Investment

Macaus legal system is based on the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary. Foreign and domestic companies register under the same rules and are subject to the same set of commercial and bankruptcy laws (Decree 40/99/M).

Competition and Antitrust Laws

Macau has no agency that reviews transactions for competition-related concerns, nor does it have a competition law. The Commercial Code (Law No. 16/2009) contains basic elements of a competition policy for commercial practices that can distort the proper functioning of markets. In response to public outcries of price-fixing schemes in the Macau oil and food retail industries, in March 2019, the GOM commissioned Macau University of Science and Technology to conduct research on how to optimize market institutions to help foster healthy private sector competition. The research results were released to the public in May 2020. Based on this research, the GOM claimed that a legislative solution such as an anti-monopoly or anti-trust law would not necessarily bring about lower prices. Rather, the GOM appointed the Macau Consumer Council to monitor the local market prices and determine when the need for new legislation on market competition is warranted.

Expropriation and Compensation

The U.S. Consulate General is not aware of any direct or indirect actions to expropriate. Legal expropriations of private property may occur if it is in the public interest. In such cases, the GOM will exchange the private property with an equivalent public property based on the fair market value and conditions of the former. The exchange of property is in accordance with established principles of international law. There is no remunerative compensation.

Dispute Settlement

ICSID Convention and New York Convention

Both the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States (ICSID Convention) and the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards (New York Convention) apply to Macau. The Law on International Commercial Arbitration (Decree 55/98/M) provides for enforcement of awards under the 1958 New York Convention.

Investor-State Dispute Settlement

The U.S. Consulate General is aware of one previous investment dispute involving U.S. or other foreign investors or contractors and the GOM. In March 2010, a low-cost airline carrier was reportedly forced to cancel flight services because of a credit dispute with its fuel provider, triggering events which led to the airlines de-licensing. Macau courts declared the airline bankrupt in September 2010. The airlines major shareholder, a U.S. private investment company, filed a case in the Macau courts seeking a judgment as to whether a GOM administrative act led to the airlines demise. The Court of Second Instance held hearings in May and June 2012. In November 2013, the Court of Second Instance rejected the appeal. Private investment disputes are normally handled in the courts or via private negotiation. Alternatively, disputes may be referred to the Hong Kong International Arbitration Center or the World Trade Center Macau Arbitration Center. The Arrangement for Mutual Service of Judicial Documents in Civil and Commercial Cases between the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macau Special Administrative Region came into effect in August 2020, significantly accelerating the service of such judicial documents between two regions.

International Commercial Arbitration and Foreign Courts

Macau has an arbitration law (Decree 55/98/M), which adopts the UN Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) model law for international commercial arbitration. The GOM accepts international arbitration of investment disputes between itself and investors. Local courts recognize and enforce foreign arbitral awards. The GOM in May 2020 enacted the New Arbitration Law, which unifies the laws governing domestic and international arbitration in Macau. This arbitration reform incorporated best international practices with effective dispute resolution techniques for investment disputes, including the introduction of emergency arbitrator mechanism, limitation on rights of appeal, procedure for courts assistance in taking of evidence, recognition and enforcement of interim measures, and publication of arbitral awards.

Macau established the World Trade Center Macau Arbitration Center in June 1998. The objective of the Center is to promote the resolution of disputes through arbitration and conciliation, providing the disputing parties with alternative resolutions other than judicial litigation.

Foreign judgments in civil and commercial matters may be enforced in Macau. The enforcement of foreign judgments is stipulated in Articles 1199 and 1200 of the Civil Procedure Code. A foreign court decision will be recognized and enforced in Macau if it qualifies as a final decision supported by authentic documentation and that its enforcement will not breach Macaus public policy.

Bankruptcy Regulations

Commercial and bankruptcy laws are written under the Macau Commercial Code, the Civil Procedure Code, and the Penal Code. Bankruptcy proceedings can be invoked by an application from the bankrupt business, by petition of the creditor, or by the Public Prosecutor. There are four methods used to prevent the occurrence of bankruptcy: the creditors meeting, the audit of the companys assets, the amicable settlement, and the creditor agreement. According to Articles 615-618 of the Civil Code and Article 351-353 of the Civil Procedure Code, a creditor who has a justified fear of losing the guarantee of his credits may request seizure of the assets of the debtor. Bankruptcy offenses are subject to criminal liability.

There is no credit bureau or other credit monitoring authority serving Macaus market.

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Macau - United States Department of State

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Daily Archives: December 28, 2022

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Derek Carr’s benching kicks off the 2023 QB carousel (and why Tom Brady to the Raiders makes sense) – Yahoo Sports

Vikings have won NFL-record 11 one-score games. Here’s how 5 other teams with similar luck fared since 2010 – Yahoo Sports

Are We Living In A Simulation? Can We Break Out Of It?

Macau – United States Department of State

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