Daily Archives: October 17, 2022

In considering U.S. strategy for Ukraine, fully understanding what drives Russian President Vladimir Putin is vital.Putin has often mentioned that as a young manin Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), he once cornered a rat.The point of the story is that theratturned on Putin, causing him to beat a quick retreat.

The takeaway is whether the 70-year-old Putin is the young man today who realized that discretion was the better part of valorin confronting the rodent and withdrew.Or is Putin the cornered rat, in this case over Ukraine, that responds aggressively and attacks his enemy?

The second issue isbluff.While Putin did not directly assert that he would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he did promise that Russia would not hesitate to employ all available means in defense of the motherland. Hisproxies,from academics to a former president and prime minister,Dimitry Medvedev, have been more direct in issuing that threat.And the Western press has been flashing warnings that a desperatePutin could resort to the nuclear option as his only way of winning in Ukraine. But would he?

Too often, foreign personalities areregardedas if they were American, behaving as we would and notas they will.Thislack of knowledge of other cultures has often been fatal.Vietnam, the second Iraq War and Afghanistan are monuments to these flaws.

Thepolitical realityis that any effort to understand an adversarys thinking often can be taken as capitulation or appeasement. Thats because recognizing actions on our part that provoked or causedevents that were detrimental to our interests in essenceassigns blame to us, something few administrations are happy to do. But seeking deeper understanding of others should never be taken as excusing adversarial responses merely toexplain them.

From the time Putin becameacting presidenton New Years Day 2000, he felt that the U.S. and the West ignored anddemeaned himand Russia.The U.S.s lack of respect and disregard for Russia explains why, in Putins view, the U.S. took a series of decisions (including NATO expansion; the second invasion of Iraq; and the arbitrary abrogation of theABM[anti-ballistic missile] andINF[Intermediate-RangeNuclear Forces] treaties) that Putin deemed intolerable.

That unease began in 2001, when President George W. Bush began Americas militarytransformation,making space and anti-missile defense top priorities and undoing, in Putins view, the strategic bargain that had been struck between the U.S., USSR and, after 1991,Russia.

But it was Bushs decision to launchIraqi Freedomin March 2003 and then the inexcusable blundermade in offering NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine atNATOs 2008 summitin Bucharest,Romania, that hardened Putins distrust of the U.S.Putin probably knew or assumed that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and correctly reasoned that the war would throw the world into chaos.The NATO summitconvincedPutin that the West and especially the U.S. no longer took Russia as a serious player and would act without any consideration of Moscows interests.

Theintervention into Georgialater in 2008 and thenUkraine in 2014were unmistakable signs of Putins angst and anger over the Wests foreign policy.Further, Putins assessment of political disorder in the West, manifested by the Trump presidency and since, convinced him that weakness in the U.S. and NATO could be challenged with minimal risk.

Russiasmilitary exerciseson Ukraines borders in 2020 and 2021 and his demands not to expand NATO further east, not to offer membership to Ukraine and for a new strategic framework for Europe were rejected in late 2021.Whether his 2022 invasionwas deterrable or not remains unknown.

AsSun Tzucounseled, know your enemy.Clearly, in this case, we did not. So, is Putin the young man or the rat?Is his bluff real or hollow?The Biden White House is wrestling with these questions. Given no clear answer, the solution should be to hedge.

That means providing Ukraine sufficient equipment and support for conducting full combined operations. It means making certain China knows that if Putin were to go nuclear, almost certainly so would Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.A line of diplomacy with Moscow must be opened now. Otherwise, Putin could be the rat. And, worse, we could be the young Putin.

HarlanUllmanis senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of shock and awe.His latestbook isThe Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.Follow him on Twitter @harlankullman.

See the article here:

Rats, bluffs and Vladimir Putin - The Hill

One of Vladimir Putins oft-quoted maxims is that sometimes it is necessary to be lonely to prove you are right. As his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine drags on, he seems to be heeding his own advice.

Putin looks increasingly isolated, not just on the world stage, but inside Russia as well. The longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for him to extricate himself with any credibility, either at home or abroad.

So where does he go from here?

In a recent United Nations General Assembly vote condemning Russias sham referendums annexing chunks of Ukraine, Putin was on the end of a thumping censure, with 143 votes in favour, 35 abstentions and five against (including Russia itself).

If the vote was any indication, Russia has precisely four friends: North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Nicaragua. As the anti-colonial movement Putin announced Russia would lead in his bizarre annexation speech of September 30, it hardly inspires confidence.

And among those who abstained from the vote, powerful actors with influence in Moscow including China and India have publicly signalled their disquiet about Putins war.

In the Middle East, where Moscow has tried building diplomatic clout around its highly questionable support for non-interference, both Qatar and Kuwait two energy giants have called for Ukraines territory to be respected.

Closer to home, all the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States abstained, with the exception of Georgia and Moldova voting in favour of condemning Russia, and Belarus that voted with Moscow.

On the home front, the picture is of a disconnected leader finding it difficult to keep rival factions in check. Recent criticisms of Russias top military leadership have targeted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The chief malcontents appear to be Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group (allegedly a private military company, but in reality a military arm of the state) and Ramzan Kadyrov, currently the head of Russias Chechen Republic.

Aside from their opportunism and naked ambition, such critiques present Putin with a problem. He has previously been comfortable purging lower levels of Russias elite cadres: the military, the intelligence services and other parts of the Russian bureaucracy. But Shoigu is one of the most powerful people in Russia after Putin. While dismissing him would rid Putin of a potential rival, it would also upset a delicately balanced circle of patronage and power. That could end up rebounding on Putin himself.

Its true that Putin has contained rumblings among the population. The estimated 700,000 Russians who fled the country following Putins mobilisation order are no longer a potential hub for disquiet.

But if jockeying for position at the top feeds popular discontent, Putin may find himself trapped between two unhappy constituencies: the Russian citizenry with whom he broke his contract by sending them to war; and Russias elites who are expected to carry out his orders without question, and then take the fall when they fail.

There are signs this is already occurring. General Andrey Kartapolov, a member of Russias parliament, and until recently the head of its influential Defence Council, has called openly for the government to stop lying to the population about its military failures in Ukraine. The people know, Kartapolov observed, adding:

Our people are not stupid, they see they are not telling them the truth and this can lead to loss of credibility.

So how does Putin extract himself from this mess of his own creation? Realistically the only way to do so is to win the war in Ukraine, or at least to win sufficient concessions that would permit him to spin it as a victory.

However, thats now highly unlikely. Putin has broadened the parameters of the conflict by endorsing the narrative amplified by Russias far right that hes at war not only with Ukraine, but with NATO itself.

Putin evidently judged that necessary to rally flagging domestic support. But doing so also redefined his concept of victory. In order to win in Ukraine, Russias armed forces must now not only achieve their stated aims but dramatically exceed them, compelling the West to accept Putins demands for a new security compact in Europe on his terms.

Another problem for Putin is that Ukraine is unlikely to accommodate Putin, either on the battlefield or at the bargaining table. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said he would only negotiate with Russias new president. He has also doubled-down on Ukraines war aims, amounting to the complete liberation of its territory.

The spectacular strike on the Kerch Bridge, sometimes referred to as Putins wedding band to Crimea was a direct insult to Putin, who had personally overseen its construction. In comparison to wilting Russian morale, it also symbolised the sense among Ukrainians that the wars tide had turned.

Read more: Crimean Bridge blast: experts assess the damage

Finally, Russias military position in Ukraine is now looking hopeless. Its forces are exhausted and they continue to retreat.

Putins decision to appoint Sergei Surovikin the general who ordered indiscriminate bombings in Syria and Chechnya to oversee Russias war has been uninspiring.

Indeed, his shift in tactics to mass cruise missile strikes against Ukrainian population centres and power generation facilities has backfired completely: it has made Ukrainians even keener to fight, and been seen globally as a vindictive act of petulance.

Unable to win on the battlefield, Surovikin has so far expended some US$400-700 million in missiles from a dwindling stock in an attempt to cow Ukraines population. This included hitting cities Russia had purportedly annexed, effectively targeting its own territory and people.

The upshot is that unless Putin chooses to escalate dramatically, even by crossing the nuclear threshold (which itself is fraught with risk), his only option is to find a face-saving way out.

Putin has recently tried to do that in three ways. Instructively, theyre at odds with his more customary violence and threats. They also suggest a growing sense that his position is untenable.

Turkish diplomats communicated Putins desire for a new grand bargain with Europe. This reportedly envisaged talks between Russia, the US and the EU. But doing so shut Ukraine out of the process, and little has come of the proposal.

An apparent attempt to weaponise SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who tweeted a peace proposal for Ukraine and warned Russia would use nuclear weapons if its Crimean Black Sea base was threatened. Despite denying he had spoken to Putin, Musks proposal closely matched Putins past demands, including specific details about access to fresh water for Crimea.

An overture from Russias Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, claiming Putin would be open to peace talks with US President Joe Biden at the upcoming G20 Summit in Bali.

Read more: Ukraine war: a desperate Russia defaults to attacking civilians

The West shouldnt react to these Kremlin hints. For one thing, they only restate its long-standing ultimatums. For another, Putin has ignored every previous diplomatic off-ramp offered to him, instead escalating his campaign against Ukraine ever more brutally.

Its also likely Putin will use any ceasefire merely as a pause to refashion his forces for a renewed onslaught.

To his credit, US President Joe Biden has already said he has no intention of meeting Putin, and the recently-released US National Security Strategy paints a picture of continued mistrust of Putins intentions.

Ultimately, if peace breaks out in Ukraine it will be something Putin must arrive at himself. Otherwise, it looks increasingly likely Ukraines armed forces will bring him to that realisation.

And although Putin would find any climb-down unappealing and embarrassing, he has already lost his dignity. It now only remains to be seen whether he can retain his political skin.

View original post here:

Vladimir Putin is increasingly isolated in Russia and abroad. Does he have an exit strategy? - The Conversation

Its easy to forget that Vladimir Putin isnt the only genocidaire in Russia. Although the recently deceased Vladimir Zhirinovsky made a career of expressing outrageously candid remarks about dropping nuclear weapons on Russias neighbors and the West, there are, alas, many more bloodthirsty madmen in Putins crumbling realm.

One of the most distinguished members of this club is Pavel Gubarev, a leading pro-Russia separatist in the Donbas. In a recent video statement about Russias plans for Ukrainians, he intoned: They are Russian people who are possessed by the devil. We arent coming to kill them, but we want to convince them. But if you dont want to be convinced by us, then well kill you. Well kill as many as is necessary: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you. Until you understand that you are possessed and need to be cured.

Like Putin, Gubarev directs most of his venom at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: And the person who is most possessed is that Zelensky. He is the devils spawn. He is Hitler 2.0 with his rabid nationalism and his rabid Russophobia .

Strong stuff, this and crazy, too. Gubarev really uses the Russian words for kill (ubit) and exterminate (istrebit). Hes not speaking metaphorically. Hes evidently dead serious that Ukrainians must be physically destroyed. And he believes that Zelensky, like Adolf Hitler, must be wiped off the face of the earth. No matter that Zelensky is Jewish, that his family survived the Holocaust, and that his policies are both liberal and democratic.

But liberalism apparently is what rubs Gubarev the wrong way. As he goes on to state, Ukrainians are Satanists, as well as anti-systemic liberal consumers and stupid people who cant figure out whats going on.

If you think none of this makes any sense, youre not alone. But Gubarevs unhinged ravings are all the scarier because they typify the historical, political and cultural nonsense that passes for Russian official discourse in the age of Putin. Former Russian president and prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, also talks as if logic and veracity had no place in human speech. And Putins propagandists Vladimir Solovyov, Olga Skabeyeva and Margarita Symonyan can make Joseph Goebbels look and sound like a rational philosopher.

Naturally, the scariest part of Gubarevs statement is the casual way in which he informs Ukrainians that, if they dont change their identity, they will be exterminated. Gubarev should be frothing at the mouth; he should be turning red; his veins should be throbbing. Instead, he speaks of genocide calmly and coolly, as if he were delivering a weather report. Evidently, genocidal thinking has been internalized and normalized and not just by him. Its nothing unusual. Its just business as usual.

Which is why Gubarev counts off the millions one, five, or more as if he were engaging in a simple monetary transaction. Ukrainian have been reduced to numbers in his mind. They have lost their humanity. The only way they can reclaim it is by abandoning their Satanic liberalism and reidentifying themselves as Russians as Gubarevs and Putins and Medvedevs. But since the war has conclusively demonstrated that Ukrainians are unwilling to give up their language, culture, history and identity, genocide is Gubarevs and Putins, and Medvedevs, and Mother Russias only possible response. And genocide is precisely what Russia has been pursuing since Feb. 24, 2022.

The most recent genocidal action took place on Oct. 10, when Russia dropped about 100 missiles and drones on mostly civilian targets, killing at least 14. The shelling continues, and the targets have been and still are overwhelmingly civilian; five to 10 Ukrainians die, on average, per day. Small wonder that the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted to declare the Russian Federation a terrorist regime.

There is no talking to Gubarev, and there is no talking to Putin, Medvedev and their ilk. Given the right incentive, they might be willing to stop just short of killing all Ukrainians, but no more. Genocidaires dont negotiate genocide, after all.

More importantly, the Gubarevs, Putins and Medvedevs dont negotiate period. The persistent entreaties by some Western policymakers and analysts that Zelensky and Putin should please sit down and figure things out are, alas, dangerously nave, because they presuppose that Russias answer to Germanys Hitler actually wants to talk about anything short of Ukraines extermination. As history has shown, genocidaires stop only when theyve completed their bloody work or are stopped.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires and Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.

Read the original post:

Putins puppets who speak of genocide calmly and coolly - The Hill

Conscript-catchers have started conducting shady raids in Moscow and St. Petersburg, despite Vladimir Putin's announcement that his military mobilisation is drawing to an end and that he has no plans to recruit any more people.

At a news conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, Putin stated that the "partial mobilisation" he had previously promised, which the defence minister claimed was intended to bring in 300,000 soldiers, was nearing its conclusion and would be over in two weeks.

"Nothing additional is planned. No proposals have been received from the defence ministry and I don't see any additional need in the foreseeable future," Putin said of his on-going mobilisation.

Also read |Putin's mobilisation chief found dead under 'suspicious circumstances'

"Now 222,000 people have been mobilised out of 300,000. Within about two weeks, all mobilisation activities will be completed."

The news comes at a time when police and enlistment officers have been seen prowling around apartment complexes and on street corners, as reported by the Daily Mail.

Armed recruiters have even gone door-to-door in search of men for mobilisation, and there are rumours that in certain cases recruiting teams are employing facial recognition technology to catch evaders.

"They are acting like dog catchers. It's sickening how they are dragging men away as cannon fodder," said one commenter.

Men of mobilisation age were stranded by the entrance of the Polyustrovo Park residential complex in St. Petersburg while summonses were being delivered.

According to Ostorozhno News, summonses were delivered in bulk at subway stations in Moscow.

Police officers interviewed the men, took their personal information, and then served some of them with summonses, according to witnesses. Some individuals are driven away in police vehicles.

The well-known attorney and human rights advocate Pavel Chikov issued a warning about "growing allegations of raids."

Senator Andrey Klishas of the pro-Putin United Russia party demanded investigations into the legality of removing men from the subway and conscripting them into battle.

To find potential dodgers, the authorities are using databases from the police, traffic police, FSB security service, and residential landlords.

Even though it was promised to Russians that 1 per centof the male population would be deployed to Putin's war, they are also storming offices to remove men of mobilisation age.

The raids to capture conscripts appear to refute Russian assurances that the first wave of mobilisation has ended and that a second round has not yet commenced.

WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

Read the original here:

`Cannon fodder` for Putin`s war in Ukraine: Russia`s conscript catchers snatch men off the streets - WION

So, here we are, living in the greatest country the world has ever known, caught between two world leaders, one of whom is mad and the other sad.

And Armageddon, which is the destruction of mankind, is lurking right around the corner waiting to be unleashed.

What did we do to deserve this?

On one hand you have madman Vladimir Putin, who has wrecked his country, threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons to ward off total humiliation and defeat at the hands of the Ukrainian freedom fighters.

On the other, you have the sad specter of Joe Biden, who has also wrecked his country, stumbling, mumbling and barely coherent, talking about Armageddon and the end of the world in off-the-cuff remarks at a fundraiser.

Someone should tell Joe that Armageddon is not a rock band.

The difference between Putins Russia and Bidens America is that people in Russia are seeking to a get out. In America they are seeking to get in.

Not only seeking, however, they are succeeding

The one thing the two do have common is that they are destroying their countries, Putin by a stupid and reckless war, and Biden by stupid and reckless policy, beginning with open borders and closed pipelines.

It would have been funny, if it were not so pathetic, to hear New York Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, faced with thousands of illegal immigrants bused into his sanctuary city from Texas saying, This crisis is not of our own making.

This is like Joe Biden, in his war on U. S. produced fossil fuel, blaming Putin for skyrocketing gasoline prices after he turned off the U.S. oil spigot.

Adams, who has declared a state of emergency in his city, in 2019 welcomed immigrants into the city, the way Biden waved in immigrants into the country.

Back then Adams, in words he is now eating, said To anyone in the world fleeing hatred and oppression, the ultimate city of immigrants wants you to remember youre always welcome here.

So, the illegal immigrants came. At last count some 19,000 illegal immigrants have recently arrived in New York. The New York school system has been overwhelmed with the enrollment of 5,500 new non-English speaking young students.

Adams welcoming remarks were like Joe Biden signaling to illegal immigrants from around the world that he would halt construction of the wall and open the borders to allow everyone in with few, if any, questions or exceptions. So they came.

Speaking about illegal immigrants at an event in 2019, Biden said, We could afford to take in a heartbeat another two million. The idea that a country of 330 million cannot afford people, who are in desperate need and who are justifiably weak and fleeing depression, is absolutely bizarre.

No. What is absolutely bizarre is the humanitarian crisis, which has now spread to cities like New York, that Biden created by opening the southern border in the first place.

Biden not only got his two million illegal immigrants, but he also got another one million so called getaways who under Joe Biden who are now roaming he country. Nobody knows who they, where they came from or where they are going.

He also got smugglers flooding the country with Chinese initiated deadly fentanyl, which is killing some 150 young Americans a day, not to mention the evil sexual exploitation of children and the racket of human smuggling.

Biden does a lot of talking, but he does not talk about the border, which he has never visited.

He is hiring 87,000 new Internal Revenue Service agents to investigate Americans, but not hiring a single Border Patrol agent to protect the border.

Biden not only deceptively opened the border, he also took an energy independent country and turned it into a beggar nation. He embarrassed America by abandoning our allies and helping our enemies in Afghanistan.

Biden has done more damage to the country than any president in history.

And he does not even know it.

Peter Lucas is a veteran Massachusetts political reporter and columnist.

See original here:

Lucas: No comfort in a world hanging between Putin and Biden - Boston Herald

Russia has lost around 65,000 soldiers since its invasion of Ukraine, officials in Kyiv say, a death toll which would rank well above the fatalities suffered by the US in the Vietnam War.

The general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces gave the figure in its latest war update on social media. As of 17 October, it listed about 65,320 (+320) persons eliminated as among the total combat losses of the enemy since the war began almost eight months ago on 24 February.

If confirmed, it would mean Russia has lost close to 2,000 soldiers a week during the conflict. The 65,320 estimate was up about 10,000 on the previous figure provided by the Ukrainian military on 21 September.

By way of comparison, according to the Defence Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) Extract Files, around 58,220 US military casualties were recorded in the Vietnam War.

The Vietnam Veterans Memorial Fund states that 58,281 Americans died in the prolonged proxy war between the US and Indochina forces in Vietnam.

There is no confirmation of the exact losses suffered by the Russian forces in its war with Ukraine, which Vladimir Putin calls a special military operation to oust the so-called neo-nazi leadership of the neighbouring country. Russia provides few updates and the figures they do provide are inevitably far lower than those maintained by Ukraine.

In late September the Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Moscow had lost 5,937 soldiers in the war with Ukraine between 24 February and 20 September.

The top Russian official also claimed that at least 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war and 49,368 have been injured in the same period.

Another estimate, from Washington, pegged Russian casualties including those wounded at between 70,000 and 80,000 up to August this year.

The Pentagons undersecretary of defence for policy, Colin Kahl, had claimed then that Vladimir Putins forces were taking a tremendous number of casualties.

Theres a lot of fog in the war but I think its safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months. Now that is a combination of killed in action and wounded in action and that number might be a little lower, a little higher, but I think thats kind of in the ballpark, Mr Kahl said.

Nearly eight months into the war, Russia is recording significant losses amid a strengthening counterattack from Ukraine in the besieged countrys northeastern and southern territory.

To further bolster its military offensive in Ukraine, Mr Putin had ordered the drafting of Russian men in a partial mobilisation order last month.

Russian police and military officers have conscripted hundreds of men in the past week, grabbing them from the street without any notice to be deployed in the Kremlins war in Ukraine, reported The Washington Post.

The Russian police officers searched for conscripts in places including a business centre in Moscow where they seized almost every man in sight, the report added.

Last week, more than 200 men were taken away from the dormitories of the Mipstroy1 construction company and on 9 October, officials grabbed dozens at a shelter for the homeless.

Read this article:

Putin has lost more troops in Ukraine than US did in whole of Vietnam war report - The Independent

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 02: Elon Musk attends The 2022 Met Gala Celebrating "In America: An Anthology of Fashion" at The Metropolitan Museum of Art on May 02, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)

Theo Wargo | Wireimage | Getty Images

Elon Musk is denying a report by Eurasia Group founder and political scientist Ian Bremmer that the SpaceX and Tesla CEO recently spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin about "the minimum the Russianpresident would require to end the war." Bremmer's note went out earlier this week to clients. Investor Sven Henrich asked Musk, via his Twitter account "@northmantrader," if the report was true. Musk responded in a tweet on Tuesday: "No, it is not. I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space."

Later on Tuesday, Bremmer doubled down, writing that Musk had told him that he spoke directly with Putin and the Kremlin about Ukraine.

CNBC reached out to Eurasia Group and SpaceX but neither were immediately available to comment.

As CNBC previously reported, Musk posted a series of tweetsOct. 3 seeking support for his opinion on the best outcome for Russia's war on Ukraine.

Musk proposed UN-supervised votes in Ukraine about whether certain regions of the nation under siege should join Russia. He also said Ukraine should hand Crimea over to Russia and that the nation should then remain "neutral" rather than aligning with either NATO or Russia.

Since those tweets, Musk has continued to promote the idea, on Twitter, that some Ukraine citizens would prefer to, and vote to, join Russia.

Kremlin officialspraised Musk for his opinion, but Musk drew sharp criticism from many others, including Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sen.Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., and Russia-born human rights activist and former chess championGarry Kasparov.

Kasparov, who sought to block Putin's rise to power and was jailed and beaten for his activism before fleeing the country, described Musk's plan as a "repetition of Kremlin propaganda."

And Ukraine's outgoing ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, wrote in response to Musk's tweets: "F--- off is my very diplomatic reply to you."

Musk had previously earned hero status in Ukraine because his company SpaceX enabled its Starlink satellite internet service to keep parts of the country online beginning in the early days of the conflict.

Publicly opining on war could prove risky for Musk and SpaceX, said J2 Ventures founder and managing partner Alex Harstrick. Before starting the fund, Harstrickwas an Army intelligence officer who deployed to both Afghanistan and Iraq with special operations units.

"Any company that sells in a significant way to the United States of America, and specifically the Department of Defense, has to acknowledge that its CEO has a responsibility to make sure that what they are talking about in any public disclosure is consistent with the values of the United States," Harstrick told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

SpaceXhas notched federal contractsworth more than $10.5 billion since 2003, according to data tracked by Deltek's GovWin and viewed by CNBC. If the leaders of a defense contractor are seen as interfering with diplomatic efforts by the U.S., government agencies may be hesitant to work with them when alternatives are available, he suggested.

Musk has also recently sounded off, in an interview with the Financial Times, about his vision for resolving China's conflict with Taiwan. Qin Gang, China's ambassador to the U.S.,thanked Musk for the idea in a tweet.

Read more from the original source:

Elon Musk denies report that he talked to Putin recently about Ukraine war - CNBC

MOSCOW, Oct 12 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia could redirect supplies intended for the damaged Nord Stream pipelines to the Black Sea to create a European gas hub in Turkey, or even use the one intact part of Nord Stream 2 to supply the EU.

An investigation is under way into explosions last month that ruptured the Russian-built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea.

Putin said it was possible to repair the pipelines and that Russia and Europe should decide their fate.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

"We could move the lost volumes from the Nord Streams along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea region and thus make the main routes for the supply of our fuel, our natural gas to Europe through Turkey, creating the largest gas hub for Europe in Turkey," he told an energy conference in Moscow.

"That is, of course, if our partners are interested in this. And economic feasibility, of course."

The problem is that European Union countries are trying to end their reliance on Russian oil and gas after Putin sent troops into Ukraine as part of what he calls a special military operation.

Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, speaking at the same conference in Moscow, said the idea was new to him but should be discussed.

"It is the first time we've heard this. Thus it is early to make an assessment," Donmez said. "These are things that need to be discussed."

Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller praised the Turkstream pipeline across Black Sea, noting it was much deeper than Nord Stream.

"As for the hub, there is no doubt that we can consider the issue of a trading platform on the border of the European Union and Turkey," Miller said.

Putin also said Russian gas could still be supplied to Europe through the one part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that is intact, but that would depend on the EU.

"It is possible to repair gas pipelines running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, but this will only make sense if they are further economically justified," he said, adding that the security of the pipeline would have to be ensured.

"And there is one branch of the Nord Stream 2, apparently that survived," Putin said. "Russia is ready to start such deliveries. The ball, as they say, is in the court of the European Union."

Miller said the pipelines could be repaired but that the EU had to say whether it wanted them repaired - and ensure their security.

Three of the Nord Stream pipelines are damaged. That leaves only one line of Nord Stream 2, which has an annual capacity of 27.5 billion cubic metres, functional.

"We are ready to supply additional volumes in the autumn-winter period," Putin said.

The pipelines, which have become a flashpoint in the Ukraine crisis, have been leaking gas into the Baltic Sea off the coast of Denmark and Sweden.

Europe suspects an act of sabotage that Moscow quickly sought to pin on the West, suggesting the United States stood to gain.

Apart from being the world's biggest natural gas exporter, Russia is the second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and a member of the OPEC+ producer group that last week decided to cut output.

Putin said Russia planned to hold oil production and exports at current levels until 2025 and that Moscow would not cede its leading position in the global energy market despite Western sanctions.

"We hope that these decisions will suit both oil producers and consumers," Putin said. "The coordination of the actions of OPEC+ partners will definitely continue to ensure the stability and predictability of the market."

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comRegister

Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Barbara Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read this article:

Putin moots gas hub in Turkey with Nord Stream supplies - Reuters

Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi today met with Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of the IAEAs efforts to prevent a nuclear accident during the current military conflict in Ukraine, stressing the urgent need to establish a safety and security protection zone around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Last week, the Director General met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and they will meet again there later this week, following today's discussions with President Putin in St Petersburg.

In recent weeks, Director General Grossi has been engaging in intense consultations with both Ukraine and the Russian Federation to agree and implement such a protection zone as soon as possible, in view of shelling at or near Europes largest nuclear power plant in recent weeks and months.

"The situation in the region around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and elsewhere has become increasingly dangerous, precarious and challenging, with frequent military attacks that can also threaten nuclear safety and security," Director General Grossi said.

"Now more than ever, during these extremely difficult times, a protection zone must be established around the ZNPP. We cant afford to lose any more time. The stakes are high. We must do everything in our power to help ensure that a nuclear accident does not happen during this tragic conflict, as it could cause even more hardship and suffering in Ukraine and beyond," he said.

Continue reading here:

IAEA's Grossi Meets Russia's Putin to Help Prevent Nuclear Accident in Ukraine, Calls for ZNPP Safety and Security Protection Zone | IAEA -...

The news comes as Russian police launched a murder investigation after a military commissar in charge of enlistment for Vladimir Putins chaotic mobilisation campaign was found dead near his home.

But tonight senior sources in Crimea warned that Russia remained uncowed, and was preparing to authorise the use of chemical weapons as part of a new offensive which will coincide with Novembers G20 summit in Bali.

A female FSB intelligence officer with operational information of Russian troops movements and a high ranking mercenary with the Putin-supporting Wagner paramilitary group are now said to have reached safe exile in France, where they have sought political asylum.

Evidence from the two defectors will both help to build up the dossier of war crimes against Vladimir Putins war machine and help Ukrainian forces in their counter-offensive inDonbas, said Russian human rights activist VladimirOsechkinwho revealed the defections.

The female intelligence officer has reportedly brought serious insider information relating to the invasion of Ukraine, counterintelligence and the Defence Ministry, while also revealing details of corruption schemes of the FSB - the Russian counterintelligence agency once headed by Vladimir Putin.

Despite reports that he was found hanged, relatives of the married father-of-two -a veteran of Russias war in Chechnya - strongly denied he killed himself.

However, his death follows a series of attacks against recruiters for Putins unpopular mobilisation programme, with more than 70 offices hit with Molotov cocktails.

Armed snatch-gangs backed by police, reminiscent of the 18th Century press gangs employed by the Royal Navy, have been operating in Russian cities, grabbing men on underground trains, on the street, and in offices.

Speaking at a summit if Kazakhstan, the Russian premier said the call-up would be over within two weeks and there were no plans for a further mobilisation, though he remains 80,000 conscripts short of his 300,000 target

Senior military sources in Crimea said that Russia was on track to launch its own offensive next month, which would reverse recent Ukrainian gains.

Putin suffered one of his most humiliating actions by Ukrainian forces last week after a kamikaze drone destroyed parts of the 12-mile Kerch Strait bridge linking the peninsula to the mainland and a crucial supply route for the Russian forces who have taken control of most of southern Ukraine's Kherson region.

The 3.3bn bridge, opened with fanfare in 2017 three years after Russia annexed Crimea, will not be completely repaired until July.

Fury over the attack caused Moscow to launch a barrage of deadly missile strikes against Kyiv and other Ukrainians cities.

A statement by Putin that Russia has no need to embark on fresh missile strikes was taken by Western officials to mean that he has temporarily deepened missile stocks.

But last night a recently-retired Russian admiral in Crimea, who still has close links with the Kremlin , warned that Moscow was preparing to unleash more sinister and deadly reprisals.

The admiral, who did not wish to be named, conceded there was "much anger" over last week's brazen attack which "had been anticipated but not efficiently defended against", but said that criticism was being directed towards Nato, and not Putin himself.

He added: The West is embroiled in the fantasy that we will launch nuclear missiles. This is fantasy, and will only happen if the motherland is itself directly threatened by nuclear missiles.

But Russian troops are preparing for their own offensive next month. And I have been told that the use of chemical weapons is being actively discussed. And some are suggesting it should be timed to happen during the G20 summit.

We have used chemical weapons before, in Syria, and we all now know that supposed Nato red lines mean very little in practical terms.

"That is the thinking in the Kremlin today.

More here:

Putin in crisis as 'two top officials defect and reveal more Russian war crimes' - Express