Daily Archives: September 20, 2022

Representative Image (iStock)Nikhil Kamath

There are, without a doubt, moments that leave an indelible mark on every generation. And these are the instances that give it shape and a definition for the coming generation to remember it by. The 70s had Woodstock, Beatlemania, and the moon landing as watershed movements. My generation has the internet, social media, and the birth of celebrity culture.

Unlimited access and high-volume exposure to celebrities' personal lives filtered down into society to shape the culture of the time. And it wasnt long before the market picked up on the fact that celebrity culture is inherently tied to consumer interests where celebrities transform their fame to become products for brands. But its as they say, all things (good or bad), must come to an end!

The name of the game today is conscious consumption. The global pandemic acted as a huge catalyst for the invisible walls between stardom and real to finally become tangible, as celebrities thrived and lived a life of luxury while it was the general populace that faced the brunt of the hardships brought on by the pandemic. As a result, consumers today are entering a phase of democratic media consumption where they choose what they listen to and who they trust. Gone are the days when a company could sell a product just because an A-list star is the one to promote it. People today are more likely to buy products or be influenced by people who have the factor of being like them. It is in these circumstances that the influencer marketing industry grew 40 per cent in 2021 and is estimated to increase its revenue from Rs 900 crore to Rs 1,200-1,300 crore in 2022!

Case in point

More and more brands are becoming cognizant of the fact that they are now marketing to a public that is more interested in an authentic cause rather than just being vehicles for mindless promotions. The famous Pepsi ad starring Kendall Jenner was withdrawn after a public outcry on the claims that it co-opted the imagery of protest movements. On the other hand, movements like the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge, Black Lives Matter protest and the #LoveWins campaign created impact and raised awareness because they were led by a genuine cause, championed by the right people. In the case of ALS, the campaign was able to raise $115 million for ALS organizations worldwide!

(The author is co-founder of True Beacon. Views expressed are personal.)

The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) pegs the social media influencer industry at USD 150 million (approx Rs 1,200 crore).

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Cast away: Surviving the high seas of the creator economy - ETBrandEquity

Boaters off the coast of Spain got quite the surreal sight Friday that might have looked like something from the mind of a Hollywood disaster flick director than Mother Nature: Four waterspouts spinning together in nearly the same spot. (Video courtesy: Anton Adanero Guinea)

MAJORCA, Spain Boaters off the coast of Spain got quite the surreal sight Friday that might have looked more like something from the mind of a Hollywood disaster flick director than Mother Nature: four waterspouts spinning together in nearly the same spot.

Anton Adanero Guinea was boating off the eastern side of the island of Majorca when the waterspouts formed amid somewhat stormy weather in the region.

LEARN: HOW TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A WATERSPOUT AND A TORNADO

Waterspouts are, generally speaking, known as simply tornadoes that form over water, but there are two types of waterspouts -- one more dangerous than the other.

Four waterspouts spin off the Spanish island of Majorca on Sept. 16, 2022.

(Anton Adanero Guinea)

"Tornadic" waterspouts form from severe thunderstorms just like their tornado cousins. They can accompany strong winds, locally high seas, frequent lightning, and large hail, and thus can be dangerous to mariners suddenly caught in their path.

Then there are "fair weather" waterspouts, which form only over open water.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER ON TV

"They develop at the surface of the water and climb skyward associated with warm water temperatures and high humidity in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere," said Meteorologist Bruce B. Smith with the National Weather Service office in Gaylord, Michigan. "They are usually small, relatively brief, and less dangerous."

Despite the storms in that area of Spain, these appear to be the fair-weather version of waterspouts.

"Fair weather" or not, the National Weather Service recommends any boaters who spot a waterspout move at a 90-degree angle away from the waterspout's path.

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Watch: Not 1 but 4 waterspouts swirl in tandem off Spanish island - Fox Weather

A new report from an environmental nonprofit finds that Massachusetts' southern coast will see increased flooding and erosion, as well as more destructive bombardment from storms. The report,from theTrustees of Reservations, says that sea levels along the South Coast are projected to rise over two feet by 2050.

The Trustees is the largest private owner of coastal land in in Massachusetts, overseeing 120 miles of coastline. In 2020, after seeing increased flooding and erosion on their properties, the group began to produce annual reports on the current and expected effects of climate change on the Massachusetts coast.

Their first report looked at the North Shore;the 2021 report covered Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Gosnold; this year's focuses on the 14 South Coast towns that border Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay.

Like previous reports, the latest predicts big climate change impacts on these towns over the next few decades. Here are five takeaways:

After being battered by hurricanes in 1938, 1944 and 1954, engineers built a harbor barrierto protect the Port of New Bedford, the most prosperous seafood port in the country. The barrier keeps water in the harbor at a level that protects infrastructure from flooding; when a storm threatens high water, the Army Corps of Engineers closes the gates. In 2019, they closed the barrier 26 times. With projected 2050 sea level rise, they'll have to close the barrier at every high tide that means 1-2 times a day.

"That's clearly not doable for a working port, it's not sustainable," saidCynthia Dittbrenner, director of Coast and Natural Resources at the Trustees of Reservations.

The New Bedford Port Authority and the Town of Fairhaven are looking at ways to make critical infrastructure in the harbor more resilient to flooding, either by raising, moving or replacing it.

Over the next 30 years, sea levels along the South Coast are projected to rise over two feet. That means that over 25 miles of road and more than 1,400 buildings in the region will flood every day at high tide by 2050. Towns with low-lying critical infrastructure, like Fairhaven, Falmouth and Wareham, are especially vulnerable.

In several towns, low-lying neighborhoods vulnerable to flooding have a large number of low-income or minority residents, who may not have the money to constantly pump out their basements and replace their ruined furniture.

"Municipalities or regional planning associations really need to think about, how do we prioritize helping those communities that don't have the resources to do it on their own," saidDittbrenner.

The cities New Bedford and Fall River also have large environmental-justicepopulations groups that face increased environmental risks because of language barriers, race or income and while those residents aren't likely to get directly hit by flooding, their livelihoods could be. The Port of New Bedford, for instance, supportsabout 39,000 jobs and generates about $1.8 billion in total personal wages annually. If the port can't operate, those jobs go away.

The South Coast boasts 4,900 acres of salt marsh, which filter water, offer wildlife habitat and act as storm buffer to the communities behind them. But South Coast marshes tend to be smaller than others in the state, and are projected to disappear more quickly as they are inundated by rising seas. In addition, years of draining and ditching the marshes for agriculture and mosquito control have compressed the soil, so some marshes are also sinking.

"So at a time when we really want the marsh to be doing its natural thing of building sediment and building organic matter and getting higher to keep up with sea level rise, it's actually sinking," saidDittbrenner.

The report predicts that 23% of the salt marsh on the South Coast will vanish by 2050.

Other states are trying experimental methods like "mud motors" to strengthen marshes by adding sediment, but those aren't allowed in Massachusetts yet.

Some South Coast communities are starting to tiptoe towards the concept of "retreat" abandoning flood-prone residential areas for good. "Retreat is a real conversation the town is going to have to have, and it's not an easy decision when you're talking about people's homes," said Jennifer Lincoln, Falmouth Conservation Commission Administrator, in the report.

The Trustees and other environmental groups are supporting state legislation to create aFlood Risk Protection Program, which would buy properties at risk for flooding, tear them down, and instead of rebuilding, restore the land to marsh or beach that protects inland neighborhoods.

A critical component of any such law, saidDittbrenner, is ensuring that the buybacks are voluntary, and that most investments go to homeowners and renters who lack resources, especially those in environmental justice communities.

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Rising seas threaten Mass. South Coast and prosperous fishing port, report finds. Here are 5 takeaways - WBUR News

See originally posted USCG release

MIAMI The crew of the USCGC Legare (WMEC 912) offloaded approximately 24,700 pounds of cocaine and 3,892 pounds of marijuana, worth an estimated $475 million, Thursday at Base Miami Beach.

The drugs were interdicted in the international waters of the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean by crews from:

"I am proud of the crews continued devotion to duty that made this offload possible, said Cdr. Jeremy M. Greenwood, commanding officer of Legare. Through the coordinated efforts of the Legare, the LEDETs, HNLMS Groningen, CGC James, and the USS Billings crews, we significantly contributed to the counter-drug mission and the dismantling of transnational criminal organizations. The drugs seized through this coordinated effort will result in significantly fewer drug-related overdoses.

The fight against drug cartels in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean, and the transnational criminal organizations they are associated with, requires a unity of effort in all phases; from detection and monitoring to interdiction and apprehension, and on to criminal prosecutions by international partners and U.S. Attorneys Offices in districts across the nation.

Detecting and interdicting illegal drug traffickers on the high seas involves significant interagency and international coordination. The Joint Interagency Task Force South in Key West, Florida conducts detection and monitoring of aerial and maritime transit of illegal drugs. Maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity in the Caribbean Sea is coordinated by the Seventh Coast Guard District, headquartered in Miami. The Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard also coordinates maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity with deployed Royal Netherlands Navy ships and their embarked Dutch Fleet Marine Corps squadrons and U.S. Coast Guard LEDETs in the Eastern Caribbean Sea near the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. Maritime interdiction of illicit smuggling activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean is coordinated by the Eleventh Coast Guard District, headquartered in Alameda, California. The U.S. Navy and allied foreign ships conduct law enforcement missions under the authority of embarked Coast Guard LEDETs from Tactical Law Enforcement Teams based in Miami and San Diego.

The Legare is a 270-foot Famous-class medium endurance cutter stationed in Portsmouth, Virginia. Legare's missions include Law Enforcement, Search and Rescue, Protection of Living Marine Resources, Homeland Security and Defense Operations, international training, and humanitarian operations. Legare patrols the offshore waters from Maine to Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, the Eastern Pacific, and the Caribbean.

For information on how to join the U.S. Coast Guard, visit http://www.GoCoastGuard.com to learn more about active duty and reserve officer and enlisted opportunities. Information on how to apply to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy can be found at http://www.uscga.edu.

-USCG-

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Coast Guard offloads more than $475 million in illegal narcotics in Miami - U.S. Southern Command

Jacksonville, Fl. The Buresh Bottom Line: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (cone of uncertainty) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

** No *inland* impacts expected from Fiona for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.... beaches to be affected by easterly swells, rough seas/surf & a high rip current risk mid through late week.... **

Atlantic Basin:

Tropical wave - 96-L was upgraded to tropical depression #7 Wed. morning then to tropical storm Fiona Wed. evening & to a hurricane Sun. morning with a Cat. 1 (85 mph winds) landfall Sunday afternoon about 3:20pm EDT along the southwest coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon followed by another landfall (Cat. 1/90 mph winds) early Mon. at 3:30am EDT along the coast of the Dominican Republic near Boca de Yuma. The hurricane strengthened into a Cat. 2 late Mon. with the eye becoming more clear & distinct.

Fiona has been battling a narrow - but significant - 30-40 mph - band of westerly shear to its immediate west & northwest but has still managed to organize. The strongest shear is now oriented north & east of the eye & Fiona will remain on the western edge of the westerly shear thereby allowing for further strengthening over very warm ocean water with high humidity. Upper level outflow has improved dramatically & all signs point to a powerful Cat. 3+ hurricane for much of the rest of this week. Of note - the center moving a little south of due west into the face of the shear - as was the case Wed./Thu. & parts of Fri. - has led to eventually powerful hurricanes that had a similar trend. And indeed Fiona will become become the first major (Cat. 3+) hurricane of the season for the Atlantic Basin. As Fiona moves away from the Caribbean, a sharper turn north will occur to near & just east of the SE Bahamian Islands Tue... then northeast to near Bermuda by Thu. night then a turn back north over the N. Atlantic.

FIONA SUMMARY/IMPACTS:

* Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands/nearby Caribbean islands: Improving weather & sea conditions through Tue.

* Most intense impacts for Hispaniola through Mon. night. Strongest winds will impact Dominican Republic along with flooding rains/mudslides... Haiti will escape most of the wind & rain.

* Impacts to the Southeast Bahamas through Tue. night, especially the Turks & Caicos Islands - strong winds, heavy rain & rough seas/surf though the most severe part of the hurricane will stay a little east.

* Impacts for Bermuda Thu. night/Fri. - wind/rain/rough seas/surf.

* Possible impacts for Nova Scotia this weekend (becoming large/strong post-tropical ocean storm)

* Increasing swells/seas/surf + dangerous rip currents for virtually all of the U.S. east coast during the upcoming week (but Fiona well offshore)

Forecast models briefly trended more west Thu. but have trended back east recently which is why one should not become too obsessed with individual model runs. Some of the real time aircraft dropsonde data was used Thu. in the 18Z (2pm) GFS model run *but not* in the 00Z (8pm) model run which is probably why the GFS had a hiccup in the 18Z Thu. run showing a track much more west. I bemoan when real time data is not consistently used within the models as it usually causes inconsistency within the models. Either use it with reach run as long as its available or dont use it at all. The good news is that Gulfstream G-IV research aircraft started consistently flying Sat. & will continue the next several days with the data gathered from the atmospheric environment in & around Fiona then can be used to initialize the GFS for each run. This has helped with better initial analysis for models at the beginning of the forecast cycle which would then - in theory - give more accurate output (forecast). Clustering & consistency of the models has improved dramatically keeping Fiona well east of the U.S. mainland. The GFS remains a little faster & bit more east than the European model... the UKMET appears remains out to lunch.

The steering influences for Fiona are distinct & pretty much locked in place in the form of an upper level trough moving to New England then the NW Atlantic while the Bermuda high is well to the east providing the distinct alleyway across the W. Atlantic for Fiona. The upper level trough should then capture Fiona by next weekend bending the transitioning to a post-tropical low to the north & northwest late in the week/next weekend which has implications for Nova Scotia as the low will remain a powerful ocean storm even after losing tropical characteristics.

Overall - once over the Southwest Atlantic - it looks like conditions (water temps., shear & moisture) will favor strengthening through midweek. There will still be some westerly shear, but Fiona will be moving with the shear + may aid from some mid & upper level ventilation courtesy the upper level trough to the NW Atlantic.

Another interesting forecasting tidbit... a typhoon over the W. Pacific is turning sharply to the north & northeast across Japan (track map at the bottom). This typhoon teleconnection might correlate rather well with Fiona over the W. Atlantic this week & the rather sharp turn north & - in time - northeast. This correlation is possible because of the upper level pattern - troughs (dips) & ridges (upside down Us) in the jet stream - that often (not always) mirror each basin (Pacific & Atlantic). See maps 6 & 7 below.

So to recap: Fiona is leaving the Caribbean ... there will be at least some impacts on some of the Bahamas Tue./Wed. - especially the Turks and Caicos Islands - followed by a move more north & - finally - north/northeast with a close pass to Bermuda late Thu. into Fri. morning. Then there will be the bend back to the north or even a little northwest over the N & NW Atlantic late in the week.

Elsewhere... a couple of active tropical waves are over the Central/Eastern Atlantic with at least some potential for development.

(1) A weak low/tropical wave over the Central Atlantic far to the east of Bermuda & southwest of the Azores will move more north so no chance to move across the Atlantic.

(2) A more southern latitude wave that moved off of Africa late last week is now a little more than half way between Africa & the Caribbean at a much lower latitude than predecessors. Both the GFS & European global models have latched onto this wave now with potential development over the Caribbean by the weekend. Its possible the wave/disturbance will enter the Gulf of Mexico thereafter but most likely not until at least the middle to end of next week. Models had been mostly ignoring this wave over the last several days, but this is a wave to keep a close eye on over the next week to 10 days.

Spaghetti plots including the ensemble (faint lines showing all the model runs which gives an indication of uncertainty):

The alleyway for Fiona is well established as the Bermuda high shifts east & a series of upper level troughs move to the U.S. east coast & NW Atlantic:

Mountainous terrain over especially the Central & Western portions of Hispaniola with some peaks 10,000+ feet. Fiona missed the highest mountains:

The upper level (about 30,000 feet) teleconnection with troughs & ridges between the Atlantic (steering Fiona) & the Pacific (steering W. Pacific typhoons):

Despite the eye of Fiona moving away, very heavy rain bands well to the east of the center are still streaming northward across Puerto Rico where rainfall totals will exceed 2 feet on some parts of the islands!:

Water vapor loop shows some dry air near wave 96-L, but its more moist than past days:

A zone of shear - on the order of 20-30+ mph - remains east/west just north of Fiona. Forecast models gradually take Fiona to the edge then west of the strongest shear.

Sunday morning:

Friday night recon mission:

Thursday recon mission:

97-L:

September origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes wanna be waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, weve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... Gaston is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in 18... Dorian in 19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in 20 & Ida in 21]). In fact, this years list of names is rather infamous with Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan retired from the 04 list (all hit Fl.) & Matthew was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

See the article here:

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Powerful Fiona brushing by SE Bahamas - ActionNewsJax.com

I grew up on the shores of Lake Erie. From a very early age my parents enjoyed boating. Their passion grew from a small (24 wood boat) to larger, pleasure boats (41) as I got older. Nothing made my late father any happier than being out on the water in his boat.

I have such fond memories of being on the boat on nice summer days cruising on the lake with endless sunshine and the wind in my hair. We would go to one of the many islands, Canada, or another fun destination.

However, sometimes the lake was rough, and then it wasnt much fun. I remember getting sick from being tossed around from the rough seas, because

Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes.

As a result, it can get rough extremely quickly when the wind picks up.

I was on some very harrowing trips when the lake whipped up quickly and the lake grew ferocious by the minute. I recall transitions from calm summer fun to the tumultuous chaos of 6-to-10-foot waves taking only minutes.

These transitions resembled the 2022 stock and bond markets, especially when unfavorable news comes out.

This past week started off with a positive Monday. Then Tuesdays August date was released. Instead of the expected pullback in the monthly inflation numbers, the readings were slightly hotter. And the year-over-year inflation numbers stayed elevated at 8.3%.

The expectation was that the decline in energy prices (gasoline) would offset other inflationary prices. Energy has declined but food and rents continued to climb.

After the release of the data early Tuesday morning, the market turned negatively very quickly. Most analysts and market pundits were expecting to see the previous rate hikes begin to soften the rate of inflation. Their thesis was if we saw slower inflation numbers, the Fed would be inclined to pivot and raise rates in a smaller increment next week at their upcoming meeting. With the unexpected new data, all bets are now on that the Fed raises by at least 75 bp. Some economists, like Larry Summers (ex-Treasury Secretary) are insisting that the Fed should be even more aggressive and raise as much as 1.0%. That would be unprecedented.

The stock market went on a severe nosedive (worst since June 2020) and interest rates headed towards new highs (the and US Treasuries hit new highs, the did not)

The lingering inflation picture is captured below.

Then on Wednesday, the , which is the Feds more closely watched index, came out and backed up the higher inflation story from the previous day.

More negative news hit Thursday night when Fed Ex (NYSE:) conveyed to the world that a major slowdown was occurring worldwide, especially in China and Europe. Consumer Sentiment also came in disappointing on Friday morning and exacerbated an already dismal week of news.

Fox financial news anchor Charles Payne recently pointed out that if they were still doing the calculations based on the methodology from the 1970s-1980s, inflation would be around 16% right now. However, the government changed the way it calculates these inflation indices by using different weighting. See below:

It was a rough week in the stock and bond markets. The ended down 5.2% from last Friday, the was down 5.8% and the Small Cap () held up a bit better but still down -4.5%.

We dont know, but our indicators have been Risk Off for several weeks now. Several of our investment strategies (including Mish) are heavily invested in Cash.

As noted above, interest rates have been rising most of the year. In fact, for holders of Fixed Income (bond) funds including variations like Preferred Bonds, Convertibles, High Yield, and even Municipal bonds, 2022 has been a negative year. Historically, this is the worst year for what are typically referred to as conservative and low risk instruments. The returns range from down -6% to over - 15% for most of these bond funds. And for many Americans, these hold a sizable place in their overall portfolio and are supposed to provide the income they rely on. The double-edged sword is that most investors invested in these types of funds are not only losing principal, but the income they produce is less than inflation. Most pension plans are severely underfunded and will not be able to cover their obligations and could default in the next decade.

The Federal Reserve watches the yield curve closely. Today the 2-year US Treasury note is yielding approximately 2.78% and the 10-year US Treasury is yielding 2.44%. That means we have an inverted yield curve of approximately -34 basis points. This has always forecasted a coming recession.

Looking at other areas of the yield curve, we have not seen this big of an inversion between the 2 year and Treasury Yields since 2000. See below:

Are we already in a recession? Many economists believe so, but if we are not, we suspect we will be soon.

In these columns we have frequently discussed earnings contractions coming soon to US companies. This will be due to many factors, these include rising labor costs, health care costs, material costs, transportation, distribution costs and a potential (and real) slowdown of business due to demand destruction and non-affordability factors.

Thursday night Federal Express provided guidance that their business is slowing quite rapidly. They attribute much of their business weakness to China (again shutting down business due to Covid concerns) and Europe, already in a recession. Their concern for a global recession forthcoming (if not already) caused the stock to sell off by 22% on Friday.

FDX Daily Chart

At the beginning of 2022 Federal Express had a market capitalization of $70 billion and was (and is) a staple of American companies providing important shipping for the supply chain. Today this company is worth $40 billion and has seen 40% of its market capitalization evaporate overnight.

This may be one of many shoes to drop from corporate America. Below is a table of Yardeni Research estimates of earnings the remainder of the year as compared to a large universe Consensus Forecasts:

We want to provide you an easy way to calculate the fair value of the S&P 500 and where this market may go if it factors in these earnings estimates. Please note that a favorable Federal Reserve environment is when they are in an accommodating mode. This means keeping rates lower than inflation or lowering rates. This low cost of capital keeps earnings growing with PE multiples staying on the higher side (18-22x earnings typically).

When the Fed is in a non-accommodative mode, raising short-term rates and/or draining liquidity from the system, we would most likely see a contraction of earnings estimates. In that case, multiples would likely fall to a range from 12-16x earnings, or even much lower during recessions.

The chart above shows the Consensus Estimates of analysts and economists on Wall Street. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research does an excellent job of providing his detailed analysis. He shows a much smaller growth projection (3.1%) for the year 2022.

Doing the arithmetic, here are some high-low estimates for the S&P 500 value. Since the market is always looking ahead, this would most likely happen in the next month and certainly prior to the end of the year:

It is safe to say that if there are more companies, like Fed Ex, who will adjust their earnings estimates, we may see the lower side of the above estimates. If, however, we have a soft landing and growth picks up going into 2023, we could see the higher side of the ranges above. The Median of these estimates is about 3600 on the S&P 500 or where we were in June 2022.

On Friday, an important market support line was broken. Many analysts and market pundits have been conveying in their subscriber updates that the S&P at 3900 would likely hold and they felt that was an important point to watch for.

Like a hot knife going thru butter, the market pierced 3900 on Friday and closed below there (and below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages). Notice that support lines below:

We have long commented that when housing becomes unaffordable, it will have a dramatic effect on slowing the economy down further. Today, mortgage rates hit the highest they have been at since midmid-2008. Mortgage applications have basically stopped.

30-Yr Fixed Mortgage Rate

Affordability in housing is determined by ones pay (free cash flow), housing prices and the mortgage rates. Given the escalation of housing prices the past few years (up on average 20%-30% in most parts of the country), purchasing a new or upgraded house has become out of reach for many buyers. And as reported in the CPI numbers last Tuesday, rents have gone up to an average price of $2500 suggesting that now people cannot even afford to rent an apartment. This will further affect earnings of housing related companies and force more corporate revisions downward.

A few weeks back we shared with you that September can be a difficult month for the stock market. This is further amplified during midterm voting years. We want to remind you that beginning September 12 through the end of the month, this period can be a very volatile and choppy period.

Was it a coincidence that this past Tuesday (September 13) that the markets new leg down began?

Please invest carefully during this period.

5 Actions You Can Take for a Smoother Investment Ride Now

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5 Actions To Create A Smoother Ride Ahead Of Rough Seas - Investing.com

Sea Surveyor was a converted coastwise passenger and freight vessel built in 1939. Before Electric Boat bought the ship in 1965, it plied the St. Lawrence River and Gulf for years and also operated between the West Indies, South America, and ports in Georgia, Texas and Florida. (Ed Bailey/AP Photo)

The red X shows where the Sea Surveyor may have gone down while en route to rendezvous with the nuclear attack submarine USS Greenling in January 1969. All 12 aboard the 118-foot Electric Boat research vessel were rescued by a passing Norwegian freighter, the Essi Kristine, after 26 storm-tossed hours in an inflatable life raft. The vessels routes are approximate and are based on coordinates noted in ship logs during the incident.

The 12 Sea Surveyor survivors arrive at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on Jan. 19, 1969, after their rescue. This photo was taken by United Press International. The three men at the top, from left, John Groppelli, Ernest Maxwell and Walter Banzhaf, are the only ones known to be still alive. The two at the bottom are Richard Carlson, left, the first mate, and Adrian Lane, the captain. (Courtesy of John Ruddy)

Walter Banzhaf still has the life jacket he wore when he abandoned Sea Surveyor. (Courtesy of Walter Banzhaf)

The flashlight used by Sea Surveyor crew to attract the attention of a passing freighter, the Essi Kristine. The flashlight was displayed at a banquet in Rotterdam, Netherlands, after the crew's rescue. (Courtesy of Mildred Carlson)

A diagram of Sea Surveyor appeared in an informational brochure for passengers on the ship.

In 1969, an Electric Boat research ship sank in the Atlantic, and even the survivors didnt know why.

Editors note: This story is based on recollections of Walter Banzhaf and research by Scott Ritter and John Ruddy. Ritter, The Days production manager, is the son-in-law of Richard Carlson, Sea Surveyors first mate.

The mission was routine: Sail from Electric Boat, rendezvous with a submarine, conduct tests, return home.

Twelve men from an EB research vessel did return, eventually. But they left their ship at the bottom of the Atlantic and brought back only a question: What went wrong?

Fifty-three years later the mystery remains, and one of the survivors is seeking answers. He hasnt found them despite searching for documents that have to be out there somewhere.

What he has done is resurrect a tale of peril and survival on the high seas in which he played a part. Hes lucky he lived to tell it.

And southeastern Connecticut is lucky to reclaim a chapter of maritime lore after decades in which the story was all but forgotten.

* * *

A thin crust of ice coated the Thames River on Sunday, Jan. 5, 1969, as the 118-foot ship Sea Surveyor prepared to depart from EB. There were seven in the crew, and one by one, five passengers, or observers, arrived and boarded.

Three were company employees, and two worked across the river at the Navy Underwater Sound Laboratory, a sonar research site at Fort Trumbull. Their job was to send radio signals to an antenna on a nearby submarine.

At 10 p.m. Sea Surveyor sailed, crunching through the ice as it moved south into Long Island Sound and beyond.

Twelve hours later, the USS Greenling (SSN-614) left State Pier and followed a similar course. If all went as planned, Greenling and Sea Surveyor would meet at sea and test the antenna.

The Sound Lab employees were John Groppelli, 33, of Pawcatuck, an electronics technician; and a 22-year-old electrical engineer named Walter Banzhaf.

* * *

Two years ago, Banzhaf, now 76, discovered an old pad of paper in his Simsbury home. On it was his handwritten account of Sea Surveyors end, set down just after the fact. The story broke off mid-sentence:

Two people were on watch, and

Summoning recollections from a half-century earlier, he finished the thought:

nothing was seen except waves and spray for several hours.

Between the halves of that sentence lay most of Banzhafs four years at the lab; a stint as a high school teacher; 29 years as a professor at the University of Hartford; and a lengthy retirement.

He added a few paragraphs and set the pad aside. Then, last December, he found something else: an album of photos and news stories about Sea Surveyor.

All of that stuff brought back memories, he recalled, and I said, This is a good story.

Banzhaf decided to write something for family and friends who hadnt heard the details. He produced a 28-page booklet and made 80 copies.

The enthusiastic response led to a PowerPoint presentation called We Are Very Likely to Die, which he has given several times. His next presentation will be Wednesday for the Noank Historical Society.

He also tried to learn how many of his fellow survivors were still alive. He found two: Ernest Maxwell, who lives in the Philippines; and Groppelli, now 87, who spent 37 years at the lab and is still in Pawcatuck.

* * *

The first day at sea was no fun for Banzhaf and Groppelli. Both were seasick and mostly stayed in their cabins. As the ship headed south, the wind picked up and the swells increased. Eventually, Banzhaf was well enough to have dinner, but Groppelli doesnt recall eating on the ship.

At 11:40 p.m., Banzhaf was awakened by a loud, metallic sound.

It was a big noise, a large piece of something hitting a large piece of something, he said. I dont know what it was.

Groppelli didnt hear it, but he noticed vibrations as the ships propeller rose from the water.

The captain, Adrian Lane, heard the engines speed up from his cabin and went to the bridge, where he learned the ship wasnt responding to the helm. With Sea Surveyor listing to port by 40-45 degrees, Lane ordered a life raft launched. The wind was howling.

Banzhaf heard the ships bell ring 12 times, and a chart told him that meant abandon ship. Someone was yelling for everyone to put on life vests and go to the raft.

A wave of extreme fear caused a choking feeling to impair my breathing for a moment, Banzhaf wrote.

Wearing a light ski jacket, he found the port side of the deck awash and the starboard side high in the air.

One by one, the men jumped into the raft, which was level with the port rail. Lane missed and had to be pulled from the water. Then the line to the ship was cut, and the raft started to drift.

The emergency had unfolded in just 20 minutes.

With its port side already submerged, Sea Surveyor slipped beneath the surface at 12:20 a.m. Jan. 7. Its lights were still ablaze, and for a moment they gleamed underwater in the dark.

Then they faded and disappeared.

* * *

When it was built in Canada in 1939, the motor vessel Rimouski didnt seem destined for an Atlantic grave. It spent years as a ferry on the St. Lawrence River.

EB bought the 290-ton ship in 1965 for research on underwater technology. A crane was installed to lower submersibles, hydrophone arrays were added, and oceanographic surveys were planned.

With accommodations for 16 scientists and technicians, the vessel was given a name reflecting its new role: Sea Surveyor.

Its captain had impeccable credentials. Adrian Kingsbury Lane of Noank had made a career of commanding research vessels, most recently the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institutions Atlantis, later the namesake of a space shuttle. He had also been captain of the schooner Brilliant at Mystic Seaport.

The first mate was Richard Carlson of Groton, a Merchant Marine Academy graduate and yacht designer who was working as a naval architect at EB. Rounding out the crew were two engineers, a bosun, a cook and an able-bodied seaman.

Over four years, Sea Surveyor logged 25,000 miles and completed 75 missions. The 76th ended in disaster.

* * *

Cold, wet and stunned into silence, 12 men sat in darkness in a rubber life raft enclosed by a canopy. With a flashlight, Banzhaf found a manual and started to read.

Your situation is not hopeless! it began. He wasnt cheered. Amid waves 15 to 20 feet high, he and the others passed a bucket and took turns vomiting.

There wasnt much to say, but Lane had relevant information he kept to himself: All along the East Coast, longshoremen were on strike. That meant fewer potential rescuers in the shipping lanes.

But in the early morning dark, a ship did come along, so close it almost ran over the raft. By the canopy light, the men could make out rivets on the hull. Then the vessel steamed away, its crew oblivious.

With daylight, the seasickness ebbed as the storm worsened. The wind roared when the raft was atop a wave and ceased when it was in a trough. No help arrived.

Each of us became increasingly aware that our chances of surviving were, at best, slim, Banzhaf wrote.

Darkness fell, and after 24 hours, the men spotted the lights of a distant ship, visible only when a wave crested. Crewman Stanley Olado opened the canopy and waved the flashlight.

The ship seemed to change course, and Banzhaf was told to fire their only parachute flare, which would hang in the air and mark their position.

But just before he could, the wind flipped the raft upside down, spilling most of the men into the ocean.

* * *

There are aspects of the story that remain unresolved. Sea Surveyor sent a distress call, so why wasnt the raft found by a search? Banzhaf said a 10-degree error in longitude may have been reported or heard, the equivalent of 530 miles.

A Navy report says that when Greenling notified EB the ship had failed to reach two possible rendezvous points, the shipyard did not consider it unusual. And the Sound Lab told the Navy none of its personnel were aboard.

The biggest question: What happened to Sea Surveyor? No one had any idea.

When the news broke, Groton radio station WSUB placed a long-distance call and reached Carlson, whose family has a recording of the broadcast.

The information we can give you is zilch because we dont know what happened ourselves, Carlson said with frustration in his voice. The ship simply filled up with water and sank.

Speculation filled the void. One theory was that hull plating had failed. Another was that a piece of equipment left behind during maintenance caused damage when the seas turned rough.

Three weeks after the sinking, all 12 survivors testified in a Coast Guard hearing. Lane said the ship may have struck an underwater object, but he wasnt sure. Banzhaf said the crash that woke him physically shook the vessel, yet only one or two others heard it.

On March 5, 1970, The Day reported the Coast Guard had released findings of fact that only hinted at the cause; the investigating officers conclusions were withheld. No punitive action was taken against the crew.

Banzhaf has been chasing those documents for months. Hes sent many inquiries, and The Day has also searched, but nothing has turned up.

I dont actually believe Ill ever get it, he said.

* * *

Without answers, Banzhaf may never know why he had to stare down death at a young age. In the life raft he had sad thoughts about leaving behind his wife of six months and his cats newborn kittens.

The strange thing to my recollection is I just had a whole bunch of dental work done and I said What a waste of money, thousands of dollars. Its going to lie at the bottom of the ocean. Strange how the mind works, I guess.

If Lane and Carlson had similar thoughts, they never shared them. Lanes son Chris, and Carlsons widow, Mildred, said the two, both professional sailors, were typically mum about their experiences.

Carlsons ship was torpedoed in World War II, and all he would ever say is, I went for a rowboat ride, his wife said. Lane offered little even as he hosted parties for the survivors. In a 1980 profile in The Day, he reduced his thoughts to five words:

Damn lucky to be alive.

* * *

Struggling in the water, the men somehow righted the overturned raft and climbed back in. Banzhaf tried to shoot the flare, but it was soaked. There was fear they had lost their chance to get the distant ships attention. Olado, who had held onto the flashlight, again waved it.

When a signal lamp lit up on the ship, the meaning was clear: We see you.

Soon a large freighter arrived and put itself between the raft and the wind. But the raft blew out of reach anyway. The ship then maneuvered so the wind would bring the raft alongside.

Still, waves tossed the ship so much that one minute its crewmen were in handshake distance, and the next they were out of sight. A line was dropped and the raft towed to the ships leeward side, where a cargo net was lowered.

After drifting 30 miles in 26 hours, the men happily abandoned the raft. Ten climbed the net; two, including Groppelli, were so weak they had to be carried.

They learned they were aboard the Essi Kristine of Norway, 825 feet long and carrying coal from Hampton Roads, Va., to the Netherlands. They were offered dry clothes and fortified with Scotch.

Banzhaf used the ships radio to give the Coast Guard word of Sea Surveyors fate, and the call launched a postscript to the drama.

The cutter Vigilant was nearby, en route to assist with a man overboard on the Bluenose II, a famous schooner from Nova Scotia. But the Coast Guard diverted it to collect the Sea Surveyor survivors and bring them home.

At 3 p.m. Jan. 8, Vigilant met Essi Kristine in still-heavy seas. The transfer would be by breeches buoy: One man at a time would be placed in a harness and pulled along a line suspended between the rocking vessels.

I wasnt about to do that, Groppelli said.

Neither was anyone else, and the idea was scrapped. Vigilant left empty-handed.

With that, the men settled in for a 10-day trip to Rotterdam. It was blissfully uneventful except for pingpong, dinners with the officers and a Hopalong Cassidy movie with Norwegian subtitles.

Upon their arrival, they were met by EB officials who had flown over and brought fresh clothes. A banquet was held where gifts were given and gratitude expressed.

The next day, Sunday, Jan. 19, the men of Sea Surveyor boarded a flight to New York, where the national media photographed their arrival. They quickly transferred to a General Dynamics plane for the short hop to Groton.

At Trumbull Airport, as they stepped into joyful embraces from family members, they fulfilled the most important part of their mission.

Two weeks late but alive and well, they were back home.

j.ruddy@theday.com

IF YOU GO:

Who: Walter Banzhaf, Sea Surveyor survivor

What: We Are Very Likely to Die: The Incredible True Story of the Sinking of the R/V Sea Surveyor

When: 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21

Sponsored by: Noank Historical Society

Read more:

What happened to Sea Surveyor? - theday.com

MUSANDAM, Oman, 16 September 2022: Six Senses Zighy Bay takes to the seas for its latest out-of-the-ordinary escapade. The recently refurbished Dhahab meaning gold in Arabic now offers one- or two-night voyages for the ultimate sea-hotel adventure.

Guests can discover the dramatic coastline and fjords of the Musandam (also known as the Norway of the Middle East) aboard a traditional, hand-crafted Omani dhow.

Once used by traders on epic voyages across the high seas, today, the dhow sets sail to the less-discovered side of Oman. From mornings exploring quaint fishing villages unaffected by the passing of time to afternoons cruising waters boasting some of the worlds most famous diving sites. The90-foot (27.5-meter) vessel features three bedrooms and ensuite bathrooms to accommodate up to six people.

Dining experience

In line with the Eat With Six Senses philosophy, meals are prepared from locally sourced organic produce, incorporating fresh catch of the day. Morning and afternoon snacks are always available, alongside breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Guests who prefer above-water activities can tour the fjords in kayaks (both single and twin), snorkel, hand-line fish, or perfect their tubing skills, says general manager Andrew Spearman. A selection of spa treatments by seasoned Six Senses Spa therapists, as well as fitness and morning yoga classes, can also be arranged on board the Dhahab.

The voyage sails the waters around Haffa, Sannat, Lima, Charia, and Hamra, with tailor-made dive experiences to explore the colourful corals and sea creatures for novices and experts alike.

A Dhahab experience, including all meals and soft beverages, is priced from USD2,250 per person per night. Overnight Dhabab boat rental and crew without inclusions has a starting price of USD1,166 per person per night.

Six Senses Zighy Bay has also recently launched the Stay and Cruise offer, starting at USD7,250 per person. This includes four nights in the resorts Pool Villa, daily breakfast at Spice Market, and one night on the Dhabab cruise. As part of the package, guests will enjoy a private chef on board, with breakfast, lunch, dinner, and soft drinks included, alongside non-motorized water sports at no extra charge. There are many other chargeable activities available on request, from spa treatments to water skiing.

To book one of these out-of-the-ordinary experiences, please e-mail [emailprotected] or call +968 2673 5555.

About Six Senses Zighy Bay

Six Senses Zighy Bay is located on the northern Musandam Peninsula in the Sultanate of Oman. The setting of 82 village-inspired pool villas is a spectacular bay guarded by the majestic Hajar Mountains and a private sandy beach. The adventure starts with an adrenaline-charged paraglide arrival into Zighy Bay, providing a stunning birds eye view of the resort.

(Your Stories: Six Senses)

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Six Senses takes to the seas - TTR Weekly

A scene from 'Project Wolf Hunting' courtesy of TIFF

Project Wolf Hunting is an action-packed high seas adventure that pits criminals against the police against a blood-thirsty monster.

Some people say if two sides want to fight, stick them in a room together, lock the door and see what happens. Whether they talk out their differences or destroy each other, one way or the other the battle will be over. However, introducing a third party to the equation could totally change the dynamics. Perhaps the warring sides unite against a common enemy, temporarily forgetting their grievances and trying to work together to defeat the uninvited guest. In Project Wolf Hunting, a prisoner transfer with a police escort is joined by an unknown sinister force.

After the tragic circumstances surrounding an air extradition a decade earlier, the authorities commandeer a large cargo ship to transfer a group of dangerous criminals from the Philippines to South Korea. There are 20 career police detectives assigned to the mission with strict orders to stay vigilant at all times. Yet, an escape plan is put into play and the authorities prove unprepared to prevent it. Suddenly its war convicts vs. cops as the ships interiors are washed in blood. But theres something else on the ship and it doesnt care who they are its going to kill them all if it gets the chance.

The antagonistic relationship and threat of some of the prisoners is made clear early on as they take attendance and later read the cons their charges. While not all the felons are associated with the incarcerated next head of organized crime, theyre not about to protest the breakout and risk losing their own lives. The lead officer has a long history with the crooked prince and hes not going to give the ship up easily. The escape is reminiscent of Con Air, but far more grisly. Its a very bloody affair as the criminals have no qualms about butchering anyone that stands in the way of their freedom. However, the ominous shape that emerges from the ships lower depths cares even less about any of their lives.

The violence is grisly as they all use anything at their disposal against each other and their mutual attacker who needs nothing more than his bare hands. Geysers of blood gush from their wounds, painting the walls and pooling across the floor. The brutal assassins origins are hinted at before the full extent of the conspiracy behind its existence is revealed, which is an interesting extra layer to the already intense narrative. Theres no telling how anyone might die or who will survive any of the many massacres that occur over the course of two hours. But the time flies by and the conclusion may leave many viewers wishing the movie was actually a little bit longer.

Project Wolf Hunting had its world premiere in the Midnight Madness programme at the Toronto International Film Festival.

Read other reviews from the festival.

Director: Hong-sun KimStarring: Seo In-Guk, Dong-Yoon Jang and Dong-il Sung

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TIFF '22 Review: 'Project Wolf Hunting' is a no holds barred fight to the end - Digital Journal

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September has been filled with all sorts of announcements, and there have even been new games released like Splatoon 3. To celebrate 'Talk Like A Pirate Day' one other title that's now available on the Nintendo Switch is Return to Monkey Island.

Yes, this the next big entry in the Monkey Island point-and-click adventure series has arrived! It sees the return of Guybrush Threepwood, witty humour and a new art style. The critic reviews are now in, so what's the verdict? Read on to find out!

Note: Many of these reviews are for PC, we'll add some Nintendo Switch reviews in time.

Starting off with IGN, it gave the game 9/10 - summing it up as an "adventure gamer's delight":

"Return to Monkey Island expectedly comes packed full of smartly crafted puzzles, funny dialogue, and memorable characters. But as series creator Ron Gilbert returns to the series directors chair for the first time since 1991, it unexpectedly offers a lot of heart, too. It is an adventure gamers delight."

The Gamer gave the PC version 4.5/5 stars, mentioning how it was everything you could want "and more":

"Return to Monkey Island is everything I wanted and more. Daft humour with plenty of dad-worthy gags, puzzles to both frustrate and delight you, lovable throwbacks around every corner, and all while being effortlessly enjoyable. It feels like Monkey Island has fittingly come full circle with this title in many ways, and yet I cant help but be selfish and want more Guybrush from Gilbert. Theres still room in the scrapbook for more adventures, and if were lucky, maybe we wont have to wait 30 years for the next title."

GameSpot awarded it 9/10, highlighting the "fan service" for returning players:

"Returning players will adore the fan service and familiar sense of warmth that permeates the whole experience, yet it still strives to make itself somewhat approachable for beginners. There's no denying that certain elements will be lost without that decades-old connection, but having a history with the series isn't essential to enjoy Guybrush Threepwood's latest escapade. Return to Monkey Island tells a wholesome and compelling tale of swashbuckling shenanigans that should appeal to anyone seeking a hearty adventure on the high seas."

Ars Technica's reviewer said it was a must-play:

"I began Return to Monkey Island thinking this game would merely be a fun, comforting return to a classic, but I left the island believing that I'd played a refreshing and absolutely necessary gameone that employs interactivity to speak to the human spirit in ways that a film or book never could. I love Return to Monkey Island, and I'm excited for you to learn its secrets, too."

And RockPaperShotgun also loved it, noting how it did a "good" job showcasing the point-and-click genre:

"I do think it's one of the best point and click games to give someone in the year of 2022 to prove that point and click games are good. But I'm also self-aware enough myself to know I wouldn't have loved Return To Monkey Island quite as much if I didn't have a history with the series. But I do. So I did. Yo ho ho, and a bottle of fun."

Will you be adding Return To Monkey Island to your Nintendo Switch collection? Tell us down below.

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Round Up: The Reviews Are In For Return To Monkey Island - Nintendo Life