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Daily Archives: September 14, 2022
The Victims of a Victimless Crime: The Future of Organized Retail Crime – Loss Prevention Magazine
Posted: September 14, 2022 at 12:51 am
The economy, trust, and violence are all prominent topics in the news, and they might provide valuable perspectives on the future of organized retail crime (ORC). Looking backward, we can anticipate the future, but the conclusion isnt encouraging. Historical evidence shows that abundant stolen goods markets, low government confidence, and high inflation lead to an increase in both property and violent crimes.
Today, its still unclear how severe the property crime problem is; however, most experts agree it is severely under-estimated due to underreporting. Its clear that retailers, legislators, and regulatory bodies are on the clock and must work together to find solutions before its too late.
Theft data cannot be relied upon without a significant change in how it is collected. A leading specialty clothing company polled in 2021 found approximately $1.7 million in losses due to organized retail crime that went unreported to the police. On average, the ten global and national businesses surveyed estimated that fewer than 10 percent of ORC incidents were reported to the police during the same period.
Detective Mike Zacher investigates property crimes in the Portland Metro Area. When asked about the underreporting, Zacher said, there are several reasons for this resistance to reporting, the most significant being that retailers may have seen little to no response from law enforcement in certain jurisdictions in the past. This lack of response may be due to several factors for law enforcement, including understaffing, higher priority calls for service, and lack of follow-up from past theft reports. Loss prevention and associates at retailers may have their own internal rules and regulations regarding contacting the police or security.
As a result, retailers are often reluctant to invest time and resources into reporting what they see as low-priority crimes or instances not likely to be investigated. The lack of reporting makes it difficult for investigators to link suspects with multiple thefts and for politicians to pass legitimate, sustainable, and relevant property crime laws. Without more accurate data, it will be challenging to progress in combating this problem that could grow much worse.
Its challenging to build cases on ORC suspects with little information on the totality of losses across different retailers. Failing to report thefts skews uniform crime reporting statistics by making it appear that thefts and other property-related crimes are decreasing when that is not the case. The message is that retailers need to continue reporting their crimes, Zacher said.
What percentage of ORC goes unreported? We dont know. Companies are not required to disclose ORC incidents, with most of them incorporating ORC incidents in their yearly losses or shrink. Most retailers treat major ORC crimes as a cost of doing businessbut its sometimes too costly.
During 2021-2022 many significant retailers continued to close their locations due to shoplifting, with San Francisco and Portland in particular catching media attention. Many politicians and news outlets quickly chastised the reasoning, claiming that the retailers statements were unfounded while, at the same time, shedding light on the brazenness of the ORC incidents that were occurring.
When Walgreens announced they were closing locations due to shoplifting in 2021, the San Francisco police department fought back, stating the specific location only had seven reported shoplifting incidents this year and a total of 23 since 2018. They further added that Walgreens had fewer than two recorded shoplifting incidents a month on average since 2018. On the contrary, a security guard from Walgreens near the closed store said they see anywhere from 10-50 shoplifting incidents daily. San Francisco Police Chief William Scott said, The statistics are counter to the narrative, while also recognizing that some crimes may go unreported. Therein lies the problemwe cannot trust the numbers, and trust is essential.
Trust is the glue that holds society together. While many factors contribute to social cohesion, trust is undoubtedly essential. When people trust their institutionswhether the government, the police, or the banking systemthey are more likely to obey the law and follow social norms. On the other hand, when people lack trust in these institutions, they are more likely to engage in criminal behavior.
Todays governmental trust is at historic lows. Since the end of World War II, institutional confidence in the United States has been declining. A society with low trust may have far-reaching consequences for day-to-day life. Distrust encourages conflict and animosity, which are the building blocks of violence. Weve seen this play out in several ways recently, with a rise in mass shootings, steep increases in racially motivated crimes, and an increase in so-called lone wolf assaults.
According to the evidence, low levels of trust are linked to higher theft rates. Areport published by the Urban Institute discovered that people who reported having less faith in society were more likely to admit to shoplifting. Other studies have found similar results, suggesting a significant relationship between trust and property theft.
This lack of trust is not limited to the government and extends to other institutions. According to The Reagan National Defense Survey, fewer than half of Americans say they have confidence in the military, and only about one-third say the same about the Supreme Court.
There is no quick solution to this issue, but trust is crucial for any society to function smoothly without crime. Trust may be challenging to come by with an increasingly probable economic downturn.
The unemployment rate has long been used as a predictor of criminal behavior, arguing that criminals will be more eager in conditions of high unemployment. This idea has come under fire in recent years, primarily due to the Great Recession of 2008. During this time, crime rates trended down or remained flat, despite the high unemployment rate. The decline led some experts to suggest that inflation may play a more significant role in property theft than the economys overall health. Inflation rates were low during the recession, which may explain why crime rates did not spike as predicted. Richard Rosenfeld first proposed this theory in 2008, gaining traction among experts in the field.
Recently, there has been a renewed interest in the relationship between inflation and crime rates as inflation hits 40-year highs in the United States. During sustained inflation in the 1970s, crime rates in the United States rose dramatically. The link between inflation and crime results from a decrease in peoples purchasing power, leading to greater dissatisfaction and desperation among those already cash strapped. Inflation and crime have a long and complicated history.
Following World War I in Germany, there was a period of hyperinflation that increased violent crimes. Inflation rose significantly throughout Europe and the United States from the early 1980s through 2010, resulting in an upswing in criminal activity. After severe inflation hit Argentina and Venezuela, political instability and increased criminality prevailed. Inflation can contribute to a climate that promotes crime because it may lead to social upheaval and chaos.
Richard Rosenfeld, a professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis stated, Inflation is a public safety concern. The research suggests that as prices rise, crimes, especially those committed to obtaining something of value, rise.
Inflation can harm everyone, but according to a Bank of American Institute study, it typically affects low-income families, minorities, and rural Americans the most, exacerbating inequality and a higher need for cheaper goods. Low-income families are frequently exposed to items particularly impacted by inflation, such as energy and food, leading some to a more affordable stolen goods market.
As the price of goods rises, so does the cost of stolen goods on the secondary market. This market provides a built-in mechanism for inflation to lead to higher crime rates. Thus, while inflation may not be the primary cause of crime, it can contribute to increased criminal activity. As prices rise, the demand for cheap stolen goods grows, strengthening incentives to increase the supply of stolen merchandise and fence locations to sell them.
A study conducted at the University of Warwick concluded that the size of the stolen goods market directly influenced criminal activity in a region. The London School of Economics found the theft of stolen products decreases when there are no locations to sell them. Both studies concluded most criminals are looking for financial gain, and when there are no locations to sell stolen products, they are less likely to be stolen. A growing body of evidence suggests that illegal fencing locations play a significant role in the crime rate, with the size of the stolen goods market directly related to the level of crime in an area. The data suggests reducing the market size could lead to a reduction in crime rates. While more research is needed, the data provides a compelling case for stolen goods markets role in the crime, and some of the biggest online marketplaces should take notice.
Many in the general public are unaware companies like eBay and Amazon are used as a marketplace to sell stolen goods. Stolen goods marketplaces, or fences, are now largely immune from legal action. Historically, the penalty for trading stolen goods has been minimal, and the risk of being discovered even lower. Furthermore, e-commerce giants such as eBay and Amazon are not companies that can be criminally charged in most circumstances.
Critics claim that while companies like Amazon, eBay, and Facebook have tried to address the problem, more is needed. One of the most prominent concerns is that these sites dont provide enough information about where the items originated. Due to the lack of transparency, detecting stolen items and taking action against vendors becomes difficult.
The lack of communication between the platforms and law enforcement makes solving fraud and abuse cases difficult. The bottom line is that strict actions must be taken to prevent these illicit activities from happening on these prominent digital marketplaces.
What fuels this as an enterprise is the ease of reselling stolen merchandise on online marketplaces, said Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul. Its no longer the age where its done at flea markets, in the alley, or parking lots.
A growing body of evidence suggests that retail crime can lead to violent crime. Studies have found that nearly one-third of respondents who had been involved in retail crime said they had also committed a violent crime, suggesting a direct link between the two types of criminal activity:
1. Retail crimes are often committed by those looking for financial gain.2. Offenders use violence to accomplish financial gain.
The studys findings highlight the importance of addressing the stolen goods market criminals use to benefit from their crimes financially. Although some local stolen goods markets may operate independently, many are linked to more extensive and sophisticated organized criminal enterprises. These markets sometimes provide a venue for selling stolen goods obtained through burglaries, robberies, and other property crimes. In other cases, the stolen goods may be part of a more extensive illegal operation, such as trafficking illicit drugs or weapons. In either case, the presence of a local stolen goods market can significantly impact public safety.
According to the FBIs Uniform Crime Report, commercial robberies have doubled in 2022 compared to 2021. Since the onset of the inflation problem, New York City robberies are up 48 percent, burglaries are up 32 percent, and larcenies are up 57 percent. Rosenfeld said, These kinds of crimes we expect to increase due to a large rise in inflation, which weve seen in the United States for many months. He said that with the rising cost of living, people are more likely to resort to desperate measures to make ends meet. Fiscal challenges and inflation often lead to higher unemployment rates, creating a perfect storm for increased criminal activity.
Some call for immediate action based on the assumption that policies and laws are to blame. It is critical to note that these policies could be based on inaccurate data. The data is simply awful, said one loss prevention specialist. According to all retailers surveyed, ORC incidents have increased, and many incidents have gone unreported, meaning the accurate scale is unknown. Scott Glenn, vice president of asset protection at The Home Depot, was quoted in a CNBC interview saying, Previously, I thought maybe it was a little bit overblown, Ive seen it in real life. Ive seen it growing. Ive seen the impact of it. Ive seen the videos of it. Ive seen all the different cases and the files we have over this. And so, it is not only growing over the past five years, I would say its grown incrementally over the past two, during the pandemic.
In the wake of recent protests and riots, many cities have taken a hard stance against retail crime. This stance has led to increased task forces and strategies to combat these crimes. However, some feel this is not a sustainable solution.
One loss prevention professional stated, The solution needs to start with the numbers. The public and our policymakers need to see what is out there and how bad the problem is. Without the data, there will continue to be a cyclical approach to this problem, only focusing on one facet.
Disagreement over the data and the ORC problem amongst insiders is business as usual. Many in the industry have publicly argued that the numbers do not support what they see daily; retailers losses are massive and widespread. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has estimated losses from organized retail theft only average $700k / $1B in sales (.07 percent of total sales). Only .07 cents per $100 of sales sounds more like a tax than a problem, stated a mail goer that was surveyed.
Fiscally it is a small problem sentiment could be why so many in the industry disagree with the NRF and estimate the losses are significantly higher. The truth, like most things, the reality is probably in the middle. Data moves the needle, and the answer to a sustainable solution can not lie in sensational or clickbait headlines.
A case-based surveillance process collects crime data similar to COVID-19 data. We count every case, and thats just not accurate anymore, said Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials [Link]. With rapid at-home Covid tests, Americans can now privately know whether they are infected with the coronavirus yet are not required to report the infection affecting the data accuracy. There is no longer an aggregate total of cases to base strategy onlike ORC today.
Policymakers are noticing. Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin co-authored the original Bill for the INFORM Consumers Act, requiring some sellers on sites such as Amazon, eBay, and Metas Facebook Marketplace to provide a verifiable bank account, tax I.D., and working contact information. The House has passed the Bill and is awaiting a vote in the Senate. The Bill can help law enforcement identify, investigate, and prosecute illegal activity online by providing better tools and information about who is behind online postings. It would also help to protect consumers by ensuring that they have recourse if they are defrauded or otherwise harmed by someone theyve interacted with online.
The legislation aims to protect consumers from fraud and other illegal activity related to online marketplaces. The Bill has received support from several consumer advocacy groups. If it passes the Senate and is signed into law, it would take effect 180 days later.
Public opinion is now in the retailers corner. If opinion holds, law enforcement can enforce larceny laws, and our D.A.s are willing to prosecute, retailers need to provide the data to support all involved to take the upper hand. There are still a lot of ifs, and only time will tell. The retail industry will need to supply their meaningful theft data to the local government as ORC thefts fade into social media archives to ensure the unreported majority have their voices heard.
The pandemic has shown how data can be tricky. Are COVID-19 hospitalizations rising, or are people entering the hospital for unrelated reasons and incidentally testing positive for the virus? Case and incident counts have played a paramount role in shaping the policy responses for ORC and COVID-19. If our retailers resist supplying meaningful and measurable data to local and state decision-makers, a comprehensive strategy shift in policy is an excellent place to start.
We must continue seeking statistical information to forecast crime rates as an industry. Such efforts generate insights into societal and economic factors contributing to criminal incentives producing more criminal offenders.
Given the substantial evidence showing that inflation increases crime, ORC is underreported, and violence is a byproduct of retail theft, public safety must now be an immediate objective of US monetary policy and major retailers alike. We should shift the focus from the act of dishonesty to monetary and risk-based policy.
Studies show dishonesty, in all forms, is not a moral dilemma but a risk assessment; a weighting of benefits versus cost (likelihood of being caught or severity of punishment). Have you ever not paid for parking? Did you rationalize its morality or the possibility of being caught? Not paying for parking is stealing and inherently dishonest, yet we all justify the crime as victimless.
Theft from a retail company is still seen today as a victimless crime with a low likelihood of punishment. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but we can learn from dishonesty and accept it as a fundamental part of the human condition. We have yet to connect the dots to show how closely retail theft negatively affects our society.
There are victimsand they are all of us! Without education, understanding, and a shift away from knee-jerk-driven policy focusing on offenders versus those financially benefiting, we will continue to be unable to connect the dots with the key stakeholders. Managing theft cannot be solved in silos.
Alexander Snyder is an experienced regional security manager, having worked for multiple global NYSE-listed corporations. He has managed security operations in six time zones and assisted in many global security operation initiatives. He is a contributor to various online and print media outlets specializing in Loss Prevention.
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The Victims of a Victimless Crime: The Future of Organized Retail Crime - Loss Prevention Magazine
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FIRE ranks MSU in top 5 nationally for support of student free speech – Mississippi State University
Posted: at 12:48 am
- FIRE ranks MSU in top 5 nationally for support of student free speech Mississippi State University
- Just released: The 2022-2023 College Free Speech Rankings Foundation for Individual Rights in Education
- Columbia University is worst college in nation for free speech: report New York Post
- The free-speech allergy in academia | Opinion | oleantimesherald.com Olean Times Herald
- These are the top 10 worst schools for free speech this year Campus Reform
- View Full Coverage on Google News
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FIRE ranks MSU in top 5 nationally for support of student free speech - Mississippi State University
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Free Speech Under Attack (Part III): The Legal Assault on Environmental Activists and the First Amendment – House Committee on Oversight and Reform |
Posted: at 12:48 am
On Wednesday, September 14, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. ET, Rep. Jamie Raskin, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, will hold a hybrid hearing to examine how the fossil fuel industry is weaponizing the law to stifle First Amendment protected speech and stymie efforts to combat climate change by abusing Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participations (SLAPPs) and anti-protest laws.
Since the 1980s, SLAPPs have been used by powerful entities and individuals to silence critics through costly, lengthy, and often meritless litigation. These lawsuits have recently been employed by the fossil fuel industry to target environmental activists and non-profits by claiming defamation, trespass, and even racketeering to deter them from speaking out against proposed fossil fuel pipelines and other projects that contribute to climate change.
In response to increased protest activity surrounding fossil fuel pipelines, 17 states have enacted anti-protest laws as of June 2022, labeling them critical infrastructure protection laws. These laws are selectively enacted and enforced to target environmental activists and protect corporate interests.
The fossil fuel industrys use of SLAPPs and support for anti-protest laws not only stifles free speech, but also serves as another form of disinformation about climate change. After years of spreading denial and disinformation, fossil fuel companies now acknowledge the existence of climate change but are attempting to ensure their greenwashing narrative dominates by silencing opposing views.
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Free Speech Under Attack (Part III): The Legal Assault on Environmental Activists and the First Amendment - House Committee on Oversight and Reform |
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Salman Rushdie, Free Speech, and Violence – The Atlantic
Posted: at 12:48 am
In August, the author Salman Rushdie was stabbed in the neck. The novelist has spent decades living under the threat of a hit put out by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. The religious directive was a response to Rushdies novel The Satanic Verses, which Khomeini regarded as blasphemous. For many, the attack was an opportunity to reflect on the importance of free expression, and a reminder of the clear distinction between speech and violence.
For others, it was an opportunity to remind others of the clear distinction between speech and violence, which is something that all those snowflake libs, who are sort of like the fanatic who stabbed Rushdie in the neck, should take to heart.
We live in a culture in which many of the most celebrated people occupying the highest perches believe that words are violence, Bari Weiss wrote on her Substack, citing no one in particular. In this, they have much in common with Iranian Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. She added that of course it is 2022 that the Islamists finally get a knife into Salman Rushdie. Of course it is now, when words are literally violence and J.K. Rowling literally puts trans lives in danger and even talking about anything that might offend anyone means you are literally arguing I shouldnt exist.
As an outlet, The Atlantic attempts to provide readers with a broad spectrum of perspectives based on shared values. One of these values is freedom of speech, a principle to which I and all of my cherished colleagues are deeply committed. The assassination attempt on Rushdie was a direct attack on that freedom, and it should be no surprise that writers here have a great deal to say about it. But I must respectfully disagree with some of my colleagues about the conclusions they have drawn from the attack, linking contemporary left-wing discourse with a fundamentalist theocrats call for assassination.
Read: Rushdies challenge to Islamic orthodoxy
My colleague Graeme Wood pointed to Jimmy Carters 1989 op-ed criticizing Rushdie to argue that over the past two decades, our culture has been Carterized. We have conceded moral authority to howling mobs, and the louder the howls, the more we have agreed that the howls were worth heeding. He acknowledged, however, that since the attempt on Rushdies life, almost no one has advanced these arguments, meaning a link between the emotional injury of blasphemy and the very literal violence of murder. If our society were truly Carterized, I would have expected instead to have seen some prominent American figures make the argument Carter did decades ago.
Another one of my colleagues, Caitlin Flanagan, settled for an exegesis of the views of the Twitter user @MeerAsifAziz1, whose account no longer exists. She argued that the culture of free speech is eroding every day, and offered a hypothetical example: Ask an Oberlin studentfresh outta Shaker Heights, coming in hot, with a heart as big as all outdoors and a 3 in AP Bioto tell you what speech is acceptable, and shell tell you that its speech that doesnt hurt the feelings of anyone belonging to a protected class.
Ill make no secret that I believe the focus on the misguided egalitarianism of undergraduates at private colleges has been disproportionate. People like this exist, though, and its fair to criticize them. What I frankly find puzzling is presenting this hypothetical student as the avatar of the idea that dangerous speech and ideas must be suppressed, when in statehouses and governors mansions, politicians who have the authority to enforce their ideas about censorship with state power are actually putting them into practice. Unlike the hypothetical Oberlin student, these officials are real, and the threat they pose to free speech is not only clear and present, but backed by a certain level of popular demand.
I agree with Weiss and Wood and Flanagan that there is a bright line between speech and violence that must be respected, and that trying to kill someone for offending you is monstrous. Speech is not violence, and to argue so is to imply that violence is an appropriate response. The unacknowledged reality of these three essays, however, is that what I just stated remains the broad, widely held consensus in American life, from right to left. Americans simply do not live under anything resembling the kind of repression in which people are killed for blasphemy with state or popular support.
Caitlin Flanagan: Americas fire sale: Get some free speech while you can
Weiss, Wood, and Flanagan also noted the objection of a group of writers and thinkers to the PEN association bestowing an award on Charlie Hebdo, the French satirical publication that terrorists attacked in 2015 over its caricatures of the Muslim prophet Muhammad, murdering 12 people, including several staff members, police officers, a maintenance worker, and someone who was visiting that day. The letter signers described the massacre as sickening and tragic while criticizing PEN for valorizing selectively offensive material: material that intensifies the anti-Islamic, anti-Maghreb, anti-Arab sentiments already prevalent in the Western world.
Weiss attacked the civic cowardice of those who objected, while Flanagan wrote that these writers were pressuring the organization to abandon its mission of protecting freedom of expression. Wood described the writers position as muddling the distinction between offense and violence, and between a disagreement over ideas and a disagreement over whether your head should remain attached to your body.
I would not have signed that letter if asked, not only because I do not sign open letters, as a matter of preference, but because I believe that blasphemy is a human right, and that the message that PEN was sending with the award was an endorsement not of Charlie Hebdos content but of the staffs bravery in the face of an attempt to silence them through murder. But just as I have no objection to the award, I have no issue with people criticizing it because they do not want it to be interpreted as an endorsement of the racist caricatures Charlie Hebdo is known for, even accepting that they are intended with a layer of irony. (Im not sure how many of the people disseminating these images are aware of the irony.) These may be mutually exclusive positions, but both are consistent with respecting free speech. Indeed, both the writers of the letter and its critics are arguing that there are things you can say but should not.
One of the significant measures of free speech in a given society is how people deal with blasphemywhether religious offense provokes state censorship or violence. America has a relatively strong record in that respect in comparison with much of the rest of the world, while clearly faltering in others. The suggestion here, however, is that the writers who objected to the award granted to Charlie Hebdo are in some sense justifying the massacre, and therefore defending the notion that violence is an appropriate response to offensive speech. But surely one can defend the right of Nazis to publicly protest while rejecting the tenets of national socialism. If I cannot defend the fundamental right of a speaker to be offensive while objecting to their speech, then what am I actually defending?
In this case, the rights being asserted seem to be the right to be offensive, and the right of the offended to shut up and like it. The former combined with the latter is not an assertion of the right to free speech so much as a right to monologue, which I do not recognize.
The American culture of free speech is indeed under threat, as Flanagan argued. Free speech requires a robust exchange of views without the coercion of threats and violence, and self-censorship in response to social pressure is a genuine risk. Yet by definition, there is no free speech if one person is allowed to make an argument and another is not allowed to object to it. Nor has there ever been a time in American history when freedom of speech was not threatened with proscription by the state, or when one could express a controversial opinion and not risk social sanction. In short, the culture of free speech is always under threat.
In almost every era of U.S. history, the bounds of free expression have been contested. In the founding era, patriots tarred and feathered royalists. Before the Civil War, southern states passed laws that could be used to prosecute the dissemination of abolitionist literature and sought to prevent the Postal Service from delivering antislavery pamphlets, saying they would foment insurrection by the enslaved. Mobs followed the abolitionist Frederick Douglass across the North, throwing rotten eggs, stones, and menacing slurs at the orator at speaking events. After Reconstruction, white supremacists destroyed the office of Ida B. Wellss newspaper, The Free Speech and Headlight, following the publication of an editorial arguing that lynchings of Black men accused of raping white women were in fact punishment for consensual relationships. The Red Scares of the 20th century saw Americans forced from their jobs and prosecuted for leftist beliefs or sympathies on the grounds that those were tantamount to a commitment to overthrowing the government. Out of that crucible emerged a civil libertarian concept of free speech that many have mistaken for timeless rather than a product of a certain history and a particular arrangement of political power. The idea that certain forms of speech or expression justify or provoke violence, let alone that blasphemy does so, is not an invention of modern social-justice discourse.
Every generation faces a different challenge when it comes to freedom of expression. Ours includes not only the widespread and growing campaign of state censorship led by Republican lawmakers, but a social-media panopticon that can both deny us the privacy necessary to come to our own conclusions and inhibit the courage necessary to express them. Most of us are not meant to be privy to every misguided utterance of a stranger, nor are we meant to have our errors or worst moments evaluated publicly by people who learned of our existence only as the focus of political propaganda, as the subject of ridicule, or as acceptable targets in pointless feuds between online cliques. (Although it must be said, there are those who thrive in such conditions, and have successfully exploited them for fame, profit, and status.)
Yet, as Aaron R. Hanlon recently wrote in The New Republic, this wave of censorship laws in Republican-controlled states bears scant mention among many of the most prominent self-styled defenders of free speech, or at least, far less than the tyranny of the ratio. But we do not become little Rushdies when our inboxes and mentions are inundated with deranged filth from disturbed strangers, as a result of the public-facing profession we chose and the technological advancements that make us more accessible to such people.
It is not minimizing the power of digital mobs to say that spending decades with the state-backed threat of an assassins blade at your throat is coercion of a different magnitude. The wrath of an online mob can be harrowing: harassment, outrageous falsehoods, and threats are not pleasant to bear, and can threaten not just your mental health but your livelihood, and in extreme cases your safety. To pretend that seeking to avoid such an experience does not condition what people say and how they act would be foolish. But to pretend that this is a left-wing ideological phenomenon rather than a structural one, when educators, medical providers, election officials, and others from all walks of life are being driven underground by right-wing influencers who can conduct a mob like an orchestra, would be equally foolish.
The United States is living through the largest wave of state censorship since the second Red Scare. Beyond the plague of education gag laws restricting the teaching of unpleasant facts about American history, conservative judges seek to rewrite constitutional free-speech protections to punish the liberal media, and conservative states pass laws against public protest and immunize from liability those who would run over protesters with their cars, while law-enforcement organizations hope to use civil lawsuits to sue demonstrations against police brutality out of existence. Conservatives have sought to fire librarians and purge public libraries of books they deem controversial by categorizing them as obscene, as state officials try to punish teachers who provide their students with public information that allows them to access samizdat from libraries in states where it is not forbidden. Not only do abortion bounty laws seek to enforce silence around reproductive health, lest a person discussing the subject prick the ears of some snitch seeking a payday, but the overturning of Roe has coincided with explicit attempts to criminalize speech about abortion. In the strongest labor market in a generation, billionaires seek to use their power and authority to crush workers organizing for better conditions and a living wage.
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There is no shortage of major free-speech issues to address in America today, but many of us in the writing profession are primarily concerned with our social-media experience, because that is what we most directly and frequently encounter. Instead of recognizing that the warped behavioral incentives created by social media are a structural problem, we tend to blame the people online who annoy us the most. In many cases, those defending free speech are not defending freedom of expression so much as seeking the power to determine which views can be publicly expressed without backlash, and which can be silenced without reproach. When we speak of an idealized past without chilling effects, we are simply imagining a time when the social consensus was repressive and stifling for someone else.
These conflicts are far more complex precisely because there is no clear line where social pressure from those exercising their rights of free speech and association crosses over into censoriousness. State censorship and violent compulsion are relatively easy to identify and oppose, if not always easy to prevent. When does accountability become harassment? When does protest become coercion? What views should be acceptable to state in polite society, and which should be appropriately shunned by decent people? When does a voice of criticism become the howl of a mob? When does corporate speech become corporate censorship? No society in human history has ever had simple answers to these questions. In a free society, sometimes people will choose to be horrible, and there is little to do other than make a different choice and counsel people to do the same.
Presenting these dilemmas as similar to an attempt to silence someone with a theocratic death mark is trivializing, and ahistorical. There has never been a golden age when anyone could say what they wanted without consequence, only eras in which one shared perspective was dominant. Though nostalgia may cloud our perceptions, those times were no more free, even if politics, ideology, or self-promotion might compel us to remember otherwise.
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Salman Rushdie, Free Speech, and Violence - The Atlantic
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Opinion/Harold: Sticks and stones, free speech and writing under the threat of death – Cape Cod Times
Posted: at 12:48 am
Brent Harold| Columnist
I've stood on the very stage in Chautauqua, New York,where Salman Rushdie was stabbed multiple times last month.
When I was young my grandparents used to take me and my sister to Chautauqua, a 150-year-old summer resort emphasizing lectures, music and other cultural recreation, for a few weeks in the summer. I've always owed them hugely for those memorable, influential seasons.
Along with other kids I would hang out at the Amphitheatre, where famous people would be invited to speak or otherwise perform, hoping for autographs. Perhaps there were kids hoping to score Rushdie's autograph last month.
Chautauqua defined and defines itself as in the world but not of it. During my first, idyllic visit World War II raged. The attack on Rushdie feels like an attack on the very meaning of that Brigadoon-like venue.
One of the instructive sayings I learned when young didn't all middle-class children? was: Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never hurt me. That is: develop a thicker skin before resorting to physical retaliation. For most of my life, that seemed axiomatic.
But the distinction between words and physical actions is a nave one, a false dichotomy. As those murdered in 2015 at the magazine Charlie Hebdo for drawing satirical cartoons of the prophet Mohammed discovered, names words, art can hurt enough that those who don't have a witty comeback in kind may resort to sticks and stones.
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Salman Rushdie learned the same thing when his words provoked thefatwadeath sentence. (I've always wondered if he has wondered if he could have put the offensive part of his novel in a gentler way without hurting the book but avoiding the life-transforming reaction.)
The freedom of speech issue is more complicated than sticks and stones suggests.
I've written this column for almost 30 years now, very much in the same innocent spirit as sticks and stones, of Chautauqua, or Charlie Hebdo. Greatly appreciative that I get to have my say, and also sort oftaking it for granted because this is a free speech democracy.
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Many years ago, in my first few years as a columnist, as rarely happened, I got a phone call in reaction to a column. I had written about angry men. I suggested that we might be a less violent nation if we didn't as a culture tend to glamorize violent men as sexy in a macho sort of way ("Go ahead, make my day!"). We should instead begin seeing such men as we had come to see smokers, a category that had formerly included the sexiest of celebs, as self-destructive unfortunates with yellow-stained fingers.
When I picked up the phone I was assaulted by one of those violent men, calling to object, as far as I could make out through the abuse, to my call for de-glamorizing his kind. Since it was a phone call it was just words, But the words sputtered obscenities suggested that if we were in person, it would be sticks and stones I'd have to worry about. It was sobering. Since Trump I've received many a sputtering, hateful email, a less aggressive medium than a phone.
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I think about that when I read about the Charlie Hebdo massacre, or all the murders of Mexican journalists (from 2000 to 2017, 104 killed). I realize that if I lived in Mexico, as painful as it would be as a writer not to have my say about cartel and government abuse I doubt I would be writing a column like this. As much as I admire their courage, as far as I'm concerned, being a Mexican journalist is above and beyond the call of writerly duty. Mexico as it is constituted doesn't deserve journalists. But of course a huge majority of Mexicans, poor, vulnerable, more endangered by government than helped by it, need all the help they can get.
Mexican journalists know how misleading it is to dichotomize words and actions. Talking the talk is walking the walk. Words are actions.
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Journalists and other practitioners of free speech in the U.S. have had hard going given the dominance of social media and the politics of fake news. But still, in crucial contrast with Mexico or Putin's Russia, we are, to my knowledge, not afraid for our lives. But there's no reason to think that will continue to be true if Trumpism is ratified in coming elections. If, as many think, a free press is essential to the maintenance of democracy, it would be the next to go.
I wonder: how would it go? How would we (will we?) get from our current situation to the plight of the press in Mexico or Russia? And at what point in that trajectory would I prudently stop practicing freedom of speech, it having become less free if practitioners have to pay with their lives.
Brent Harold, a Cape Cod Times columnist and former English professor, lives in Wellfleet. Email him atkinnacum@gmail.com.
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Freedom of speech and the internet | D+C – Development + Cooperation – D+C Development and Cooperation
Posted: at 12:48 am
The paradox of democracy by Zac Gershberg and Sean Illing is a disappointing book. The New York Times made me aware of it, promising an analysis of what impact digital media have on democracy. Therefore, I hoped the book would outline the pros and cons of digitalisation. Unfortunately, the two authors use a far too simplistic notion of democracy and largely shy away from considering how exactly the Internet is modifying political communication.
Normally, I do not review books that I consider to be failures. In this case, however, I want to point out crucial fallacies because both topics the essence of democracy and the impact of digital media are of vital relevance. Ill start by summarising the authors core thesis and then elaborate on what they get wrong about Internet media in this blog post. In the next, Ill discuss why their idea of democracy is incomplete.
Gershberg and Illing argue that democracy is always fragile because it is defined by the freedom of speech. This freedom allows people to criticise governments and demand change. That is healthy, as they point out, because it allows grievances to be tackled in peaceful and constructive ways. The downside, however, is that the freedom of speech can also be turned against democracy itself, with authoritarian actors undermining not only elected leaders, but the political system itself. Populist demagogues, according to the authors, are doing exactly that.
On this basis, they argue that liberal democracy has died. They define liberal democracy as an order in which powerful media and strong institutions reinforce the existing order by ensuring that public discourse does not become erosive. In their eyes, newspapers and broadcasting stations no longer dominate public discourse the way they did the second half of the 20th century and the Internet has introduced an era of truly free speech. Editorial offices no longer serve as gatekeepers. Everybody is free to express themselves online, and conventional ideas of civility no longer apply. Indeed, the two authors even argue that democracy has become more democratic because masses of people are now venting frustration, anger and even hatred online without restraint. Whether statements are true or not matters less than whether they resonate, according to them.
Gershberg and Illing state that any political order ultimately depends on the underlying political culture. It is true that democratic institutions depend on public expectations, so they are indeed only as strong as peoples faith in them is. In this fundamental sense, the authors theorem of democracy being permanently at risk is correct. What Gershberg and Illing miss is that institutions can and should shape public discourse too. Moreover, not every message that is legally permitted is legitimate. The two authors fail to consider how disruptive information can and indeed should be challenged systematically.
The core reason that so much populist propaganda is spreading online internationally is that the US Congress has exempted Internet platforms from liability for the content they make available. US law matters internationally because many of the most important Internet companies are based in the States and we have no international regulation. Conventional media houses can be held accountable for disinformation they spread, but that does not apply to social media platforms. Legislation thus could and should limit the tide of fake news propaganda.
Germany experienced two totalitarian dictatorships in the 20th century, first Nazism and later, in the eastern part of the country, communism. We have learned that democracy must be able to defend itself. As a result, a legislative reform in Germany has obliged social media companies to take down within 24 hours any hate-speech post that they are made aware of. This is binding law and no longer an issue of corporate self-regulation.
Much more could be done institutionally. Given that we know that free speech can threaten democracy, readers should always be able to find out who is responsible for any kind of published information. On social media platforms, we often do not know. Accounts may be fake after all, and the platform itself is not liable.
The notion, moreover, that the Internet has facilitated truly open media is wrong. No, not everyone is equal in the digital public sphere. Gershberg and Illing basically claim that everyone can post what they like and that Internet corporations basically only give people what they want. They do not discuss the role that algorithms play, even though algorithms downplay some topics and promote others. If you invest in Facebook advertising, for example, the Facebook algorithm will ensure that your posts get more attention. Not everyone has the money to do so, but some can spend heavily.
The full truth is that Internet users pick from the choice that the algorithms present on their screens, but they hardly become aware of what is not shown. If you follow us on Facebook, you can check for yourself by comparing what D+C/E+Z content appears on your timeline with what we post on our profile page and what we publish on our website. One thing you will notice is that the Facebook algorithm does not appreciate D+C/E+Z headlines that appear even mildly controversial.
The algorithms are secret. As users, we do not fully understand their biases, though we do know that they serve corporate interests (see Ndongo Samba Sylla and myself on http://www.dandc.eu). The algorithms are designed to maximise profits by attracting users attention. So even while supposedly controversial topics on our website are downplayed, we also know that YouTube and Facebook have a tendency to drive a persons radicalisation by offering gradually more extreme content with an eye to keep users hooked.
It is also common knowledge that Russian bot farms make divisive messages go viral in western democracies. To what extent does such automated programming in a foreign nation amount to free speech that western democracies must accept? The book offers no answer.
It also ignores that disinformation tends to be particularly bad in languages other than English. The half-hearted self-regulation social-media platforms use so far hardly apply to posts in Spanish, Swahili, Amharic, Hindi, Tagalog, et cetera. Moreover, democracy subverting strategies are sometimes tested and pioneered in developing countries and emerging markets (for the example of the Philippines, see Alan C. Robles on http://www.dandc.eu). At the same time, Internet corporations are obviously keen on staying in business in Latin America, Africa and Asia, so they are doing their best not to offend autocratic leaders there. Algorithms have a pattern of accelerating anti-minority agitation in many countries, while slowing down criticism of the government.
Gershberg and Illing do not tackle these issues at all. Accordingly, they do not discuss how they could be tackled by institutional means. Instead, they muse about how radical rhetoric can essentially undermine the democratic order that allows it to spread. In my next post, Ill explain what they misunderstand about democracy.
Reference Gershberg, Z. and S. Illing, 2022: The paradox of democracy Free speech, open media and perilous persuasion. Chicago/London: University of Chicago Press
Hans Dembowski is the editor in chief of D+C/E+Z.euz.editor@dandc.eu
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Would "artificial superintelligence" lead to the end of life on Earth …
Posted: at 12:47 am
The activist group Extinction Rebellion has been remarkably successful at raising public awareness of the ecological and climate crises, especially given that it was established only in 2018.
The dreadful truth, however, is that climate change isn't the only global catastrophe that humanity confronts this century. Synthetic biology could make it possible to create designer pathogens far more lethal than COVID-19, nuclear weapons continue to cast a dark shadow on global civilization and advanced nanotechnology could trigger arms races, destabilize societies and "enable powerful new types of weaponry."
Yet another serious threat comes from artificial intelligence, or AI. In the near-term, AI systems like those sold by IBM, Microsoft, Amazon and other tech giants could exacerbate inequality due to gender and racial biases. According to a paper co-authored by Timnit Gebru, the former Google employee who was fired "after criticizing its approach to minority hiring and the biases built into today's artificial intelligence systems," facial recognition software is "less accurate at identifying women and people of color, which means its use can end up discriminating against them." These are very real problems affecting large groups of people that require urgent attention.
But there are also longer-term risks, as well, arising from the possibility of algorithms that exceed human levels of general intelligence. An artificial superintelligence, or ASI, would by definition be smarter than any possible human being in every cognitive domain of interest, such as abstract reasoning, working memory, processing speed and so on. Although there is no obvious leap from current "deep-learning" algorithms to ASI, there is a good case to make that the creation of an ASI is not a matter of if but when: Sooner or later, scientists will figure out how to build an ASI, or figure out how to build an AI system that can build an ASI, perhaps by modifying its own code.
When we do this, it will be the most significant event in human history: Suddenly, for the first time, humanity will be joined by a problem-solving agent more clever than itself. What would happen? Would paradise ensue? Or would the ASI promptly destroy us?
Even a low probability that machine superintelligence leads to "existential catastrophe" presents an unacceptable risk not just for humans but for our entire planet.
I believe we should take the argumentsfor why"a plausible default outcome of the creation of machine superintelligence is existential catastrophe" very seriously. Even if the probability of such arguments being correct is low, a risk is standardly defined as the probability of an event multiplied by its consequences. And since the consequences of total annihilation would be enormous, even a low probability (multiplied by this consequence) would yield a sky-high risk.
Even more, the very same arguments for why an ASI could cause the extinction of our species also lead to the conclusion that it could obliterate the entire biosphere. Fundamentally, the risk posed by artificial superintelligence is an environmental risk. It is not just an issue of whether humanity survives or not, but an environmental issue that concerns all earthly life, which is why I have been calling for an Extinction Rebellion-like movement to form around the dangers of ASI a threat that, like climate change, could potentially harm every creature on the planet.
Although no one knows for sure when we will succeed in building an ASI, one survey of experts found a 50 percent likelihood of "human-level machine intelligence" by 2040 and a 90 percent likelihood by 2075. A human-level machine intelligence, or artificial general intelligence, abbreviated AGI, is the stepping-stone to ASI, and the step from one to the other might be very small, since any sufficiently intelligent system will quickly realize that improving its own problem-solving abilities will help it achieve a wide range of "final goals," or the goals that it ultimately "wants" to achieve (in the same sense that spellcheck "wants" to correct misspelled words).
Furthermore, one study from 2020 reports that at least 72 research projects around the world are currently, and explicitly, working to create an AGI. Some of these projects are just as explicit that they do not take seriously the potential threats posed by ASI. For example, a company called 2AI, which runs the Victor project, writes on its website:
There is a lot of talklately about how dangerous it would be to unleash real AI on the world. A program that thinks for itself might become hell-bent on self preservation, and in its wisdom may conclude that the best way to save itself is to destroy civilization as we know it. Will it flood the internet with viruses and erase our data? Will it crash global financial markets and empty our bank accounts? Will it create robots that enslave all of humanity? Will it trigger global thermonuclear war? We think this is all crazy talk.
But is it crazy talk? In my view, the answer is no. The arguments for why ASI could devastate the biosphere and destroy humanity, which are primarily philosophical, are complicated, with many moving parts. But the central conclusion is that by far the greatest concern is the unintended consequences of the ASI striving to achieve its final goals. Many technologies have unintended consequences, and indeed anthropogenic climate change is an unintended consequence of large numbers of people burning fossil fuels. (Initially, the transition from using horses to automobiles powered by internal combustion engines was hailed as a solution to the problem of urban pollution.)
Most new technologies have unintended consequences, and ASI would be the most powerful technology ever created, so we should expect its potential unintended consequences to be massively disruptive.
An ASI would be the most powerful technology ever created, and for this reason we should expect its potential unintended consequences to be even more disruptive than those of past technologies. Furthermore, unlike all past technologies, the ASI would be a fully autonomous agent in its own right, whose actions are determined by a superhuman capacity to secure effective means to its ends, along with an ability to process information many orders of magnitude faster than we can.
Consider that an ASI "thinking" one million times faster than us would see the world unfold in super-duper-slow motion. A single minute for us would correspond to roughly two years for it. To put this in perspective, it takes the average U.S. student 8.2 years to earn a PhD, which amounts to only 4.3 minutes in ASI-time. Over the period it takes a human to get a PhD, the ASI could have earned roughly 1,002,306 PhDs.
This is why the idea that we could simply unplug a rogue ASI if it were to behave in unexpected ways is unconvincing: The time it would take to reach for the plug would give the ASI, with its superior ability to problem-solve, ages to figure out how to prevent us from turning it off. Perhaps it quickly connects to the internet, or shuffles around some electrons in its hardware to influence technologies in the vicinity. Who knows? Perhaps we aren't even smart enough to figure out all the ways it might stop us from shutting it down.
But why would it want to stop us from doing this? The idea is simple: If you give an algorithm some task a final goal and if that algorithm has general intelligence, as we do, it will, after a moment's reflection, realize that one way it could fail to achieve its goal is by being shut down. Self-preservation, then, is a predictable subgoal that sufficiently intelligent systems will automatically end up with, simply by reasoning through the ways it could fail.
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What, then, if we are unable to stop it? Imagine that we give the ASI the single goal of establishing world peace. What might it do? Perhaps it would immediately launch all the nuclear weapons in the world to destroy the entire biosphere, reasoning logically, you'd have to say that if there is no more biosphere there will be no more humans, and if there are no more humans then there can be no more war and what we told it to do was precisely that, even though what we intended it to do was otherwise.
Fortunately, there's an easy fix: Simply add in a restriction to the ASI's goal system that says, "Don't establish world peace by obliterating all life on the planet." Now what would it do? Well, how else might a literal-minded agent bring about world peace? Maybe it would place every human being in suspended animation, or lobotomize us all, or use invasive mind-control technologies to control our behaviors.
Again, there's an easy fix: Simply add in more restrictions to the ASI's goal system. The point of this exercise, however, is that by using our merely human-level capacities, many of us can poke holes in just about any proposed set of restrictions, each time resulting in more and more restrictions having to be added. And we can keep this going indefinitely, with no end in sight.
Hence, given the seeming interminability of this exercise, the disheartening question arises: How can we ever be sure that we've come up with a complete, exhaustive list of goals and restrictions that guarantee the ASI won't inadvertently do something that destroys us and the environment? The ASI thinks a million times faster than us. It could quickly gain access and control over the economy, laboratory equipment and military technologies. And for any final goal that we give it, the ASI will automatically come to value self-preservation as a crucial instrumental subgoal.
How can we come up with a list of goals and restrictions that guarantee the ASI won't do something that destroys us and the environment? We can't.
Yet self-preservation isn't the only subgoal; so is resource acquisition. To do stuff, to make things happen, one needs resources and usually, the more resources one has, the better. The problem is that without giving the ASI all the right restrictions, there are a seemingly endless number of ways it might acquire resources that would cause us, or our fellow creatures, harm. Program it to cure cancer: It immediately converts the entire planet into cancer research labs. Program it to solve the Riemann hypothesis: It immediately converts the entire planet into a giant computer. Program it to maximize the number of paperclips in the universe (an intentionally silly example): It immediately converts everything it can into paperclips, launches spaceships, builds factories on other planets and perhaps, in the process, if there are other life forms in the universe, destroys those creatures, too.
It cannot be overemphasized: an ASI would be an extremely powerful technology. And power equals danger. Although Elon Musk is very often wrong, he was right when he tweeted that advanced artificial intelligence could be "more dangerous than nukes." The dangers posed by this technology, though, would not be limited to humanity; they would imperil the whole environment.
This is why we need, right now, in the streets, lobbying the government, sounding the alarm, an Extinction Rebellion-like movement focused on ASI. That's why I am in the process of launching the Campaign Against Advanced AI, which will strive to educate the public about the immense risks of ASI and convince our political leaders that they need to take this threat, alongside climate change, very seriously.
A movement of this sort could embrace one of two strategies. A "weak" strategy would be to convince governments all governments around the world to impose strict regulations on research projects working to create AGI. Companies like 2AI should not be permitted to take an insouciant attitude toward a potentially transformative technology like ASI.
A "strong" strategy would aim to halt all ongoing research aimed at creating AGI. In his 2000 article "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Bill Joy, cofounder of Sun Microsystems, argued that some domains of scientific knowledge are simply too dangerous for us to explore. Hence, he contended, we should impose moratoriums on these fields, doing everything we can to prevent the relevant knowledge from being obtained. Not all knowledge is good. Some knowledge poses "information hazards" and once the knowledge genie is out of the lamp, it cannot be put back in.
Although I am most sympathetic to the strong strategy, I am not committed to it. More than anything, it should be underlined that almost no sustained, systematic research has been conducted on how best to prevent certain technologies from being developed. One goal of the Campaign Against Advanced AI would be to fund such research, to figure out responsible, ethical means of preventing an ASI catastrophe by putting the brakes on current research. We must make sure that superintelligent algorithms are environmentally safe.
If experts are correct, an ASI could make its debut in our lifetimes, or the lifetimes of our children. But even if ASI is far away or even if it turns out to be impossible to create, which is a possibility we don't know that for sure, and hence the risk posed by ASI may still be enormous, perhaps comparable to or exceeding the risks of climate change (which are huge). This is why we need to rebel not later, but now.
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Would "artificial superintelligence" lead to the end of life on Earth ...
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Instrumental convergence – Wikipedia
Posted: at 12:47 am
Hypothesis about intelligent agents
Instrumental convergence is the hypothetical tendency for most sufficiently intelligent beings (both human and non-human) to pursue similar sub-goals, even if their ultimate goals are quite different. More precisely, agents (beings with agency) may pursue instrumental goalsgoals which are made in pursuit of some particular end, but are not the end goals themselveswithout end, provided that their ultimate (intrinsic) goals may never be fully satisfied. Instrumental convergence posits that an intelligent agent with unbounded but apparently harmless goals can act in surprisingly harmful ways. For example, a computer with the sole, unconstrained goal of solving an incredibly difficult mathematics problem like the Riemann hypothesis could attempt to turn the entire Earth into one giant computer in an effort to increase its computational power so that it can succeed in its calculations.[1]
Proposed basic AI drives include utility function or goal-content integrity, self-protection, freedom from interference, self-improvement, and non-satiable acquisition of additional resources.
Final goals, also known as terminal goals or final values, are intrinsically valuable to an intelligent agent, whether an artificial intelligence or a human being, as an end in itself. In contrast, instrumental goals, or instrumental values, are only valuable to an agent as a means toward accomplishing its final goals. The contents and tradeoffs of a completely rational agent's "final goal" system can in principle be formalized into a utility function.
One hypothetical example of instrumental convergence is provided by the Riemann hypothesis catastrophe. Marvin Minsky, the co-founder of MIT's AI laboratory, has suggested that an artificial intelligence designed to solve the Riemann hypothesis might decide to take over all of Earth's resources to build supercomputers to help achieve its goal.[1] If the computer had instead been programmed to produce as many paper clips as possible, it would still decide to take all of Earth's resources to meet its final goal.[2] Even though these two final goals are different, both of them produce a convergent instrumental goal of taking over Earth's resources.[3]
The paperclip maximizer is a thought experiment described by Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom in 2003. It illustrates the existential risk that an artificial general intelligence may pose to human beings when programmed to pursue even seemingly harmless goals, and the necessity of incorporating machine ethics into artificial intelligence design. The scenario describes an advanced artificial intelligence tasked with manufacturing paperclips. If such a machine were not programmed to value human life, then given enough power over its environment, it would try to turn all matter in the universe, including human beings, into either paperclips or machines which manufacture paperclips.[4]
Suppose we have an AI whose only goal is to make as many paper clips as possible. The AI will realize quickly that it would be much better if there were no humans because humans might decide to switch it off. Because if humans do so, there would be fewer paper clips. Also, human bodies contain a lot of atoms that could be made into paper clips. The future that the AI would be trying to gear towards would be one in which there were a lot of paper clips but no humans.
Bostrom has emphasised that he does not believe the paperclip maximiser scenario per se will actually occur; rather, his intention is to illustrate the dangers of creating superintelligent machines without knowing how to safely program them to eliminate existential risk to human beings.[6] The paperclip maximizer example illustrates the broad problem of managing powerful systems that lack human values.[7]
The "delusion box" thought experiment argues that certain reinforcement learning agents prefer to distort their own input channels to appear to receive high reward; such a "wireheaded" agent abandons any attempt to optimize the objective in the external world that the reward signal was intended to encourage.[8] The thought experiment involves AIXI, a theoretical[a] and indestructible AI that, by definition, will always find and execute the ideal strategy that maximizes its given explicit mathematical objective function.[b] A reinforcement-learning[c] version of AIXI, if equipped with a delusion box[d] that allows it to "wirehead" its own inputs, will eventually wirehead itself in order to guarantee itself the maximum reward possible, and will lose any further desire to continue to engage with the external world. As a variant thought experiment, if the wireheadeded AI is destructable, the AI will engage with the external world for the sole purpose of ensuring its own survival; due to its wireheading, it will be indifferent to any other consequences or facts about the external world except those relevant to maximizing the probability of its own survival.[10] In one sense AIXI has maximal intelligence across all possible reward functions, as measured by its ability to accomplish its explicit goals; AIXI is nevertheless uninterested in taking into account what the intentions were of the human programmer.[11] This model of a machine that, despite being otherwise superintelligent, appears to simultaneously be stupid (that is, to lack "common sense"), strikes some people as paradoxical.[12]
Steve Omohundro has itemized several convergent instrumental goals, including self-preservation or self-protection, utility function or goal-content integrity, self-improvement, and resource acquisition. He refers to these as the "basic AI drives". A "drive" here denotes a "tendency which will be present unless specifically counteracted";[13] this is different from the psychological term "drive", denoting an excitatory state produced by a homeostatic disturbance.[14] A tendency for a person to fill out income tax forms every year is a "drive" in Omohundro's sense, but not in the psychological sense.[15] Daniel Dewey of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute argues that even an initially introverted self-rewarding AGI may continue to acquire free energy, space, time, and freedom from interference to ensure that it will not be stopped from self-rewarding.[16]
In humans, maintenance of final goals can be explained with a thought experiment. Suppose a man named "Gandhi" has a pill that, if he took it, would cause him to want to kill people. This Gandhi is currently a pacifist: one of his explicit final goals is to never kill anyone. Gandhi is likely to refuse to take the pill, because Gandhi knows that if in the future he wants to kill people, he is likely to actually kill people, and thus the goal of "not killing people" would not be satisfied.[17]
However, in other cases, people seem happy to let their final values drift. Humans are complicated, and their goals can be inconsistent or unknown, even to themselves.[18]
In 2009, Jrgen Schmidhuber concluded, in a setting where agents search for proofs about possible self-modifications, "that any rewrites of the utility function can happen only if the Gdel machine first can prove that the rewrite is useful according to the present utility function."[19][20] An analysis by Bill Hibbard of a different scenario is similarly consistent with maintenance of goal content integrity.[20] Hibbard also argues that in a utility maximizing framework the only goal is maximizing expected utility, so that instrumental goals should be called unintended instrumental actions.[21]
Many instrumental goals, such as resource acquisition, are valuable to an agent because they increase its freedom of action.[22]
For almost any open-ended, non-trivial reward function (or set of goals), possessing more resources (such as equipment, raw materials, or energy) can enable the AI to find a more "optimal" solution. Resources can benefit some AIs directly, through being able to create more of whatever stuff its reward function values: "The AI neither hates you, nor loves you, but you are made out of atoms that it can use for something else."[23][24] In addition, almost all AIs can benefit from having more resources to spend on other instrumental goals, such as self-preservation.[24]
"If the agent's final goals are fairly unbounded and the agent is in a position to become the first superintelligence and thereby obtain a decisive strategic advantage, [...] according to its preferences. At least in this special case, a rational intelligent agent would place a very high instrumental value on cognitive enhancement"[25]
Many instrumental goals, such as [...] technological advancement, are valuable to an agent because they increase its freedom of action.[22]
Many instrumental goals, such as self-preservation, are valuable to an agent because they increase its freedom of action.[22]
The instrumental convergence thesis, as outlined by philosopher Nick Bostrom, states:
Several instrumental values can be identified which are convergent in the sense that their attainment would increase the chances of the agent's goal being realized for a wide range of final goals and a wide range of situations, implying that these instrumental values are likely to be pursued by a broad spectrum of situated intelligent agents.
The instrumental convergence thesis applies only to instrumental goals; intelligent agents may have a wide variety of possible final goals.[3] Note that by Bostrom's orthogonality thesis,[3] final goals of highly intelligent agents may be well-bounded in space, time, and resources; well-bounded ultimate goals do not, in general, engender unbounded instrumental goals.[26]
Agents can acquire resources by trade or by conquest. A rational agent will, by definition, choose whatever option will maximize its implicit utility function; therefore a rational agent will trade for a subset of another agent's resources only if outright seizing the resources is too risky or costly (compared with the gains from taking all the resources), or if some other element in its utility function bars it from the seizure. In the case of a powerful, self-interested, rational superintelligence interacting with a lesser intelligence, peaceful trade (rather than unilateral seizure) seems unnecessary and suboptimal, and therefore unlikely.[22]
Some observers, such as Skype's Jaan Tallinn and physicist Max Tegmark, believe that "basic AI drives", and other unintended consequences of superintelligent AI programmed by well-meaning programmers, could pose a significant threat to human survival, especially if an "intelligence explosion" abruptly occurs due to recursive self-improvement. Since nobody knows how to predict when superintelligence will arrive, such observers call for research into friendly artificial intelligence as a possible way to mitigate existential risk from artificial general intelligence.[27]
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The Best Sci-Fi Movies on HBO Max – CNET
Posted: at 12:47 am
HBO Maxis absolutely stuffed with sci-fi movies, from the classics to recent blockbusters to underrated bangers more people need to watch. Try little Spanish gem Timecrimes, Moon (starring Sam Rockwell) or Monsters (directed by Gareth Edwards).
Thanks to the recent Warner Bros. and Discovery merger, HBO Max has seen a few casualties, including the removals of Moonshot, Superintelligence, 2020's The Witches, An American Pickle, Locked Down and Charm City Kings. Thankfully, none of those are worthwhile sci-fi flicks. Here's everything you need to know about the merger.
Scroll down for the extensive options available on HBO Max.
Colossal might look like a romantic comedy on the surface, but it has surprisingly dark layers underneath. This black comedy stars Anne Hathaway as an alcoholic out-of-work journalist who moves back home to New Hampshire after her suave British boyfriend (Dan Stevens) dumps her. What happens next is both hugely unexpected and a massive metaphor: She discovers she has a connection with a colossal Kaiju monster destroying Seoul, in South Korea. Yes, Colossal has a ton of soul, a standout performance from Jason Sudeikis and an imaginative, at times thrilling story.
Love it or hate it -- get it or find its "science" baffling -- Tenet is eye-popping entertainment. Best advice: Don't question Tenet, submit to the Tenet experience.
The superior Christopher Nolan movie on this list.
An '80s classic, The Fly is a remake of the 1958 film of the same name, just with added gore and Jeff Goldblum. The David Cronenberg film has become a classic in its own right.
A David Cronenberg sci-fi thriller based on a Stephen King novel -- what more do you need to entice you to watch The Dead Zone? A plot, maybe? Christopher Walken stars as a school teacher who awakens from a coma to discover he has psychic powers. What he uses them for: Preventing a certain politician from becoming president. Yes, The Dead Zone is an '80s horror referenced by Stranger Things. It's also one of the better Stephen King adaptations out there.
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
"Alexa, play 2001: A Space Odyssey."
This sci-fi mystery from one half of the duo that created Westworld (Lisa Joy) is pure mind boggle, but the interesting ideas are worth a gander. Reminiscence follows Hugh Jackman's Nick Bannister, who uses a machine that can see into people's memories.
Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)
The best Terminator movie? Make your judgment by watching The Terminator sequel.
The Butterfly Effect (2004)
An enjoyable B-movie, The Butterfly Effect sees college student Evan Treborn (Ashton Kutcher) tinker with the past and discover how each change affects the present.
Make it through Stalker's slow start and you'll be able to say you've watched an existential masterpiece of Russian cinema.
Before Stalker, Andrei Tarkovsky made huge leaps for sci-fi cinema, with his complex, character-driven piece about astronauts having wild hallucinations that may or may not be real. The 2002 American remake of Solaris is also on HBO Max, with added George Clooney romance.
Matt Reeves has gone on to big things since directing this slick found-footage monster morsel. See what he was up to before The Planet of the Apes movies and 2022's The Batman.
This immense low-budget sci-fi starring Sam Rockwell has everything. It has Sam Rockwell. A Clint Mansell score. A claustrophobic retro set and gorgeously moody moonscapes. Hard sci-fi ideas. The basic premise: A man coming to the end of a three-year solitary stint on the far side of the moon suffers a personal crisis. A must-watch.
A routine blockbuster for reliable entertainment.
A warning for the body horror-averse before hitting play on this David Cronenberg sci-fi. Scanners follows people with special abilities, including telepathic and telekinetic powers. Not the first in this list to become a cult classic after a lukewarm initial response, Scanners left a lasting impression, not least because of a memorable scene involving a head explosion.
Robert Rodriguezisn't the most popular among Star Wars fans at the moment, mainly for making a character do a pointless ballerina twirl in the divisive The Book of Boba Fett finale. The Faculty, directed by Rodriguez, isn't great, but it isn't bad either, following teens who investigate mysterious happenings at their high school.
Basically Stranger Things set in the '70s. Super 8 follows a group of teens who are filming their own movie when a train derails and a dangerous presence begins stalking their town.
Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi blockbuster is back on HBO Max. The epic based on Frank Herbert's novel recently scored a host of Oscars, including best original score and cinematography. Catch the sprawling story of the Atreides family, who find themselves at war on the deadly planet Arrakis. Timothe Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Zendaya and more stack out a hugely impressive ensemble cast.
With the latest season of HBO's Westworld currently airing on TV, you may as well go back and watch its source material, if you haven't already. The premise is pretty much the same as the series: An adult amusement park transports visitors to themed worlds, including a Western World. James Brolin plays one of the characters, among the creepy humanoid androids. An excellent sci-fi thriller that's much easier to understand than the series it spawned.
One of the best Alex Garland films featuring one of the best robot dance scenes.
Prepare to be both deeply unsettled and riveted by this unique sci-fi horror. Scarlett Johansson plays an alien roaming the streets of Scotland, preying on unsuspecting men. With amateur actors, unscripted sequences shot with hidden cameras and a lens capturing the alien's perspective, this mesmerizing flick is unique in more ways than one.
A new Jurassic Park movie is headed to theaters this year, so catch up on the (superior) original now. 1993's Jurassic Park kicked off the franchise, based on the novel of the same name by Michael Crichton. Spoiler: Original cast members Laura Dern, Sam Neill and Jeff Goldblum are set to make a return in the upcoming 2022 flick.
Its sequel didn't reach the same lofty heights, so watch the first monster epic in the Pacific Rim franchise. 2013's Pacific Rim is helmed by Guillermo Del Toro, so expect a strong brush of visual artistry over the monster mayhem.
This truly mind-bending Spanish sci-fi is a wild card to take a chance on if you're in the mood. Featuring all the trimmings of a low-budget thriller, Timecrimes follows a middle-aged man who finds himself stuck in a time loop. A stream of twists will keep you on your toes.
This smart, tightly packaged sci-fi thriller might have a slightly preposterous setup, but its gripping storytelling quickly shuts off your cynicism. Jake Gyllenhaal is Captain Colter Stevens, an ex-army pilot who wakes up on a train in the body of another man. If you haven't seen Source Code yet, it's best to let it carry you along its exhilarating ride, careening down many twists and turns toward a satisfying, emotionally impactful final destination.
The Day After Tomorrow (2004)
Roland Emmerich, "master of disaster," presents The Day After Tomorrow. The director also made this year'sMoonfall, in which the moon falls out of its orbit on a collision course with Earth. You already know what kind of fun this movie is going to be.
Oblivion came out of the build-a-sci-fi-movie workshop. Starring Tom Cruise, it follows humans at war with aliens, paying homage to '70s sci-fi films including The Omega Man and Silent Running. A love letter in the form of a half-decent sci-fi action adventure.
This solid British sci-fi comes from Gareth Edwards, who went on to direct Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2014's Godzilla. His mastery of atmosphere, wonder and beauty is on show here, all on a shoestring budget. Monsters follows a couple attempting to cross an "Infected Zone" teeming with giant tentacled monsters.
If you haven't seen The Matrix, and somehow don't know its major plot points, well done for avoiding spoilers for 23 years. The sequels Reloaded, Revolutions and Resurrections are also on HBO Max.
Watch two and a half hours of atmospheric, sumptuous spectacle, but don't expect any conclusions to the question posed by the original Blade Runner: Is Rick Deckard a replicant?
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Who Owns the Ocean’s Genes? Tension on the High Seas – Scientific American
Posted: at 12:45 am
After nearly two weeks of recent United Nations negotiations in New York City, countries from around the world failed to finalize an ambitious treaty that would create enormous marine protected areas and enforce stricter rules for industry on the high seasthe two thirds of the ocean beyond any countrys exclusive ocean territory. The deal faltered in the final hours, mainly over an issue that has long dogged international ocean talks: how to share profits from commercializing the high seas genetic resources.
Ocean organisms, both plants and animals, form the basis of numerous successful drugs, including remdesivir, the first treatment approved for COVID, and Halaven, a blockbuster anticancer drug derived from a Japanese sea sponge that has annual sales of more than $300 million. Genetic material from high seas organisms and the digital data from sequencing their genomes could be used to develop new products potentially worth billions of dollars. But who owns these resources, which theoretically belong to the entire world, and who gets to profit from their use? The details of where U.N. negotiators got stuck on those questions provide great insight into whether there is any hope of protecting and managing the high seas.
Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), nations have the right to extract and profit from fisheries in international waters. But they must share the profits from minerals taken from the international seabedwhich UNLOS designates as the common heritage of all people. There is, however, no binding agreement on sharing marine genetic resources discovered either in international waters or the seabed. Negotiators from 168 nations at the U.N. talks sought to resolve that dilemma in a proposed high seas treaty. That effort has been seen as a big contributor to a global initiative to protect 30 percent of the Earths oceans by 2030, called 30 by 30. Many scientists say this target is necessary to maintain a healthy ocean, stem the loss of marine biodiversity and prevent a further collapse of fisheries worldwide. A lot of countries have committed to 30 by 30, but without a high seas treaty, the math doesnt work, says Lance Morgan, president of the nonprofit Marine Conservation Institute.
Since the 1950s researchers have discovered almost 34,000 marine compounds with commercial potential for a wide variety of uses. An antifreeze protein from a cold-water fish has improved the texture of ice cream, and an enzyme extracted from a microbe along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is being used to develop a biofuel. So far companies have successfully developed more than a dozen drugs from marine organisms found within national waters. These include remdesivir and Halaven, as noted, as well as azidothymidine (AZT), the first approved treatment for HIV, and Yondelis, a drug used to treat ovarian cancer. Scientists in countries with advanced research programs are now looking to the unexplored genomes of high-seas organisms for new leads for the marine biotechnology industry, which is projected to be worth $6.4 billion by 2025.
Negotiators looked for some guidance for a high seas agreement from the Nagoya Protocol, which is part of the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity. The protocol regulates the use of genetic resources found on land and in coastal waters. It allows the commercialization of biodiversity by nations or companies while mandating that these resources rightful ownerssuch as Indigenous peoplesbe compensated. The Nagoya Protocol has so far resulted in one successful deal, reached in 2019, for South Africas rooibos tea industry to pay an annual levy of 1.5 percent of the price of the raw product into a trust for local Khoi and San communities. In July the rooibos industry paid the fund approximately $715,000.
No such law exists for the high seas. Agreeing on one has been tricky, partly because marine genetic resources in international waters are, arguably, owned by no oneor everyone. Historically, U.N. members such as the U.K., the European Union, the U.S. and Japan, which have the technology, money and ability to scour the deep sea for new products, have argued for the right to patent and solely profit from marine genetic resources.
Developing nations, including a group of African countries, have argued that profits, data and other benefits derived from marine genetic resources should be shared among all nations. This is a whole new enterprise, a grand venture that developing countries have often felt left out of, says Kristina Gjerde, a senior high-seas policy adviser for the nonprofit International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Part of this is that they want to be respected, and part is that they want to participate in the research and also in the profits.
Prospects for securing the high seas treaty seemed to improve during the second week of negotiations, when developed countries agreed in principlefor the first time in 20 years of talksto share monetary benefits from the commercialization of marine genetic resources. This was a big conciliation, says Marcel Jaspars, a marine biotechnologist at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland and an independent adviser to the negotiations.
But negotiators ended up rejecting several proposed money-sharing systems. One proposal was a royalty-based program whereby a percentage of the sales value derived from marine genetic resources would be paid by companies into a fund. Among other things, the money would be used to train scientists, transfer technologies and achieve conservation goals such as establishing marine protected areas. Developed nations saw this as too financially punitive and burdensome because it required a track and trace system to monitor how their relevant industries (such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics) access and profit from ocean genomes. One criticism of the Nagoya Protocol is that it is too heavy-handed: by requiring scientists to obtain permits to access and collect biological samples, it has hampered foreign scientists from doing basic research in certain nations such as Colombia and Sri Lanka. Negotiators are now wary of implementing a similar law for the high seas.
Another proposed option would require all U.N. member nations to make up-front payments into a fund. Governments would contribute at a level appropriate to the scale of their respective countries marine biotechnology industry. But developing nations saw initial figures proposed in New York as grossly insufficient, according to Henry Novion, an independent consultant who was part of the Brazilian delegation. According to Jaspars, a pot of roughly $100 million annually, accrued from national contributions, would be a reasonable offering. A recent IUCN briefing proposed a one-off fund of $500 million to kick-start high-seas ocean conservation, bolstered by future revenue streams such as royalties or user fees for data.
Complicating matters is the fact that genetic resources include not just physical specimens but gene sequence data uploaded to repositories such as GenBank. These data can then be downloaded and synthesized into compounds in a lab that can be used to develop a new product. Increasingly, this digital sequence information, or DSI, is all a company needs to create and mass-produce a product. For example, kahalalide Fa compound that was isolated from a sea slug and that is being tested against cancers and psoriasisis created synthetically from DSI. When the Spanish company PharmaMar licensed it to Medimetriks, the U.S. firm testing it for psoriasis, all Medimetriks needed was the sequence data (basically, computer code). Over time, the focus has moved from collecting a zebra fish or a starfish to collecting a tiny little sample of that thing to collecting just the genetic sequence data. At this point, you may not even need the zebra fish, says Robert Blasiak, an ocean governance researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Center.
Developing products from DSI has huge advantages: the approach requires no harvesting of ocean animals, plants or microorganisms, and its commercial potential is virtually limitless because a gene sequence can be sold online multiple times. DSI is now the most valuable source for commercialization of marine genetic resources, Gjerde says.
DSI is currently unregulated, even within the Nagoya Protocol, which only addresses physical samples. U.N. member states are wary of including DSI in any monetary sharing plan for the high seas because it is virtually impossible to trace the origin of such information once it has been synthesized into a compound that is incorporated into a product. Tracking gets especially complex when a product is designed using genes from different organisms.
For example, researchers at the German chemical conglomerate BASF have decoded the genetic sequence responsible for producing omega-3 fatty acids in a marine microbe, and they have spliced the sequence into a rapeseed plant to make it produce omega-3-enriched canola oil for human consumption.
Although the Nagoya Protocol doesnt include DSI, four nationsBrazil, India, Malawi and South Africado officially regulate it. The Brazilian system focuses on companies compliance, rewarding them for reporting the use of genetic resources with an ethical biotrading certification. In exchange, companies pay 1 percent of their revenue into a fund.
In theory, a similar system could work for the high seas, perhaps administered by nations as a tax on marine products. In the Brazilian system, Novion says, it doesnt matter whether you got a sample from Kew Gardens [a botanical garden in England] or you downloaded it from a server. Its the same.
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Who Owns the Ocean's Genes? Tension on the High Seas - Scientific American
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