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Daily Archives: September 7, 2022
NFL betting preview: Mahomes, Herbert and the rest of our favorite passing props – Yahoo Sports
Posted: September 7, 2022 at 6:18 pm
Quarterbacks get most of the attention in the NFL. That's why they always win the MVP awards.
There are passing props on just about every starting NFL quarterback at BetMGM. Our Yahoo Sportsbook team takes a look at our favorite overs and unders for passing yardage and touchdowns:
MARK DRUMHELLER: Unders on QB props (passing yards and TDs) hit at a 74% clip last season per Betsperts Connor Allen. There isnt a QB in the league in a worse position than Justin Fields. Chicago has the worst OL in the NFL and the second-worst set of receivers. Fields under 3,299.5 yards are as good as gold.
NICK BROMBERG: Patrick Mahomes has thrown for over 4,700 in each of the three full seasons hes played the NFL. His only season as a starter with fewer than 4,700 yards came when he missed time because of a knee injury in 2019. Thats why I really like Mahomes to throw for over 4,649.5 yards this year.
Patrick Mahomes is looking for another big season with the Kansas City Chiefs. (AP Foto/David Banks)
PETER TRUSZKOWSKI: Justin Herbert to go over 4,699.5 passing yards. He eclipsed 5,000 last season and I expect him to be near the top of the league again. The Chargers will need to throw the ball to keep up in games against their loaded division. My only concern would be injury, but thats a concern with anyone.
GREG BRAINOS: Kirk Cousins over 31.5 passing touchdowns. Hes cleared this in each of his seasons with Justin Jefferson, and that was in Mike Zimmers vanilla offense. I see Cousins tossing 40+ scores under Kevin OConnell this season, which is why Im also putting a taste on him to lead the league in passing touchdowns at 18-to-1.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Baker Mayfield cruises over 3,600 yards (-115) if he simply stays healthy. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore can drag him there. And dont be spooked by 2021 Mayfield; he wasnt healthy for most of the year and the Browns set him up to fail. All is forgiven.
FRANK SCHWAB: Id rather bet unders than overs, because more can go wrong in an NFL season than can go right. Theres a trio I like: Jameis Winston under 3,749.5 (he wasnt a high-volume passer last season and is an injury risk now), Mac Jones under 3,949.5 (another low-volume passing offense) and Matt Ryan under 3,899.5 as my best bet. The Colts threw for 3,588 yards last season, not that much has changed around the quarterback position and I expect them to be good and protecting a lot of leads. Ryan will be efficient but not a 3,900-yard passer.
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NFL betting preview: Mahomes, Herbert and the rest of our favorite passing props - Yahoo Sports
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Projected top picks Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson to square off in exhibitions in Las Vegas – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 6:18 pm
NBA fans will get an early look at the potential top two picks in the 2023 draft next month.
European star Victor Wembanyama, the projected No. 1 pick in next years draft, will travel with the Metropolitans 92 from Paris to Las Vegas for a pair of exhibition games on Oct. 4 and 6, according to ESPNs Jonathan Givony.
Wembanyamas team will take on the G League Ignite, which will match him up against projected No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson.
The games, which are set to be broadcast on an ESPN network, are sure to draw plenty of scouts and attention.
Wembanyama is one of the most anticipated players out of Europe in recent memory. The 18-year-old stands 7-foot-4 barefoot and has an 8-foot wingspan, and he was named the French LNB Pro A Best Young Player for two straight years.
Yahoo Sports Krysten Peek described him as Rudy Gobert mixed with Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis. Or more simply, hes a larger Giannis Antetokounmpo without any weaknesses. Wembanyama is easily the most talked-about prospect since LeBron James.
Henderson is entering his second season with the Ignite this fall, and is one of three players on the team projected to go in the first round of next years draft. The 6-foot-3 guard averaged 14 points, five rebounds and 3.6 assists last season, and hes been turning heads for years.
"I think what separates me from the rest of the players in my draft class is I just played an entire season in the G League," Henderson told Yahoo Sports. "I'm basically a pro. I've been around pro settings and pro development and that's really helped prepare me for next year."
The Ignite will open their season officially on Nov. 4, and the team will play a full 50-game schedule for the first time. Metropolitan 92s season will start later this month, and theyll have three games before they travel to Nevada.
Victor Wembanyamas Metropolitans 92 and Scoot Hendersons G League Ignite will play a pair of exhibitions in Henderson, Nevada, next month. (Oscar Gonzalez/NurPhoto/Getty Images)
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NFL odds movement: Bills weren’t always favored to beat the Rams – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 6:18 pm
One more sleep. The NFL season is finally upon us. Many have spent the past few weeks preparing for the upcoming season and have just recently started diving into the betting market. However, BetMGM first released its betting lines for Week 1 of the NFL season all the way back in April. These lines have been molded by transactions, injuries, hype, sharp money and a collection of other factors, and the result is what we see now.
How has the betting market changed over the fast few months? Only three games currently have the same spread as when the market opened, and two of those games saw the line moved earlier in the summer before moving back. Let's take a look at the bigger line moves that we saw this NFL offseason.
As you're getting ready to start your NFL betting season, you're probably starting with the season opener on Thursday night in Los Angeles. Currently, the Rams are 2.5-point home underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. However, when this line opened, the Rams were actually 1-point favorites.
There's plenty of hype surrounding the Bills. They are the Super Bowl favorites. They have the highest win total in the league. Josh Allen is the preseason betting favorite to win MVP. It's no surprise that bettors have sided with Buffalo in the season opener. At BetMGM, 74% of bets and 90% of the money is backing the Bills to cover as 2.5-point favorites.
Josh Allen and the Bills open the NFL season as favorites over the Rams. (Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
There are some questions surrounding the Rams. The biggest question is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow. The Rams say there's no limitations, but there's also concern it could impact him all season long. On top of the health of their quarterback, this team is missing some key pieces from last year's Super Bowl winning team. Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr, Robert Woods, Andrew Whitworth, Austin Corbett, Sebastian Joseph-Day and Darious Williams are gone. They've been replaced by Allen Robinson, Joseph Noteboom, Brian Allen, Bobby Wagner and Troy Hill.
Story continues
The Rams should still be very good. They have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds. However, bettors and the market just like the Bills more, and it has been reflected in the line movement throughout the summer.
A year ago at this time, many felt the Cleveland Browns finally had a franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield. However, Mayfield attempted to gut through injuries last season and had a putrid year. The Browns acquired Deshaun Watson in March, signaling the end of the Mayfield era in Cleveland. Now as we get ready for Week 1, Mayfield is a member of the Carolina Panthers and preparing to face his old team in Week 1. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is suspended and the Browns are going to start Jacoby Brissett in his place.
When the market opened, the Browns were 4.5-point favorites. Baked into that line was the chance Watson would avoid suspension, or Mayfield might stick around and suit up for Cleveland. However, with everything shaking out how it has, the Browns are now 1.5-point underdogs in Carolina.
Mayfield is an upgrade for the Panthers over Sam Darnold, while Brissett is a below average starting quarterback in the league. There's also no denying that the majority of the football world outside of Cleveland is rooting for Baker Mayfield on Sunday. At BetMGM, 87% of bets and 91% of the money is backing the Panthers to cover the 1.5-point spread.
The six-point line movement is the largest we've seen in any Week 1 game this offseason. It looks like bettors are expecting Baker to stick it to his old team. No matter how it goes, it's must watch.
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 3-point road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Rather quickly, that line moved to 3.5 points. However, it was stuck there almost all summer until just this week.
Over the past few days, the line has ballooned up to 6 points. Overall, 76% of bets and 89% of the money is on Kansas City. The Chiefs have been a popular bet throughout the offseason, so the sudden and massive line movement is rather surprising.
The Cardinals were the best team in the league through the first half of last season. However, things fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyler Murray missed some time, as did DeAndre Hopkins. They laid a complete egg in the playoffs against the Rams. Arizona is one of the harder teams to read entering the season, but it feels like bettors are deciding to fade them to start the season.
Kansas City isn't without questions themselves. They traded Tyreek Hill to Miami in the offseason. It'll be interesting to see what this offense looks like now that Patrick Mahomes no longer has his most explosive weapon. Bettors think the Chiefs will do just fine and beat the Cardinals comfortably on the road.
The Ravens opened as 4.5-point favorites against the Jets. However, an influx of Ravens bets (93% of money) and a Zach Wilson injury has the Ravens currently favored by 7 points on the road.
New Orleans is now a 5.5-point favorite against the Falcons after opening at -4. At BetMGM, 81% of bets are on the Saints.
The line movement in the Dolphins-Patriots game has been interesting. The Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites. However, for most of the offseason, the line was Miami -2.5 as early support favored New England. Now as we approach kickoff, the line has moved the other way and the Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites.
San Francisco opened as a 6.5-point favorite against Chicago on the road. That line is now up to 7.
The Eagles are 4-point road favorites in Detroit currently. The market opened with Philadelphia as a 3.5-point favorite. At BetMGM, 76% of the money is backing the Lions to cover as an underdog.
There's been movement through a key number in the Jacksonville-Washington game. The Commanders opened as 3.5-point favorites, but now Washington is just a 2.5-point favorite.
Denver opened as just a 3.5-point road favorite against Seattle in Russell Wilson's return. However, the Seahawks are planning to start Geno Smith and the betting market isn't a fan of that. The Broncos are currently 6.5-point favorites.
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NFL odds movement: Bills weren't always favored to beat the Rams - Yahoo Sports
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Making sense of the Dodgers’ and Astros’ sustained success is rather simple – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 6:18 pm
Last week, the Los Angeles Dodgers went to New York for a midweek series that was imbued with extra-special stakes for its potential as a postseason preview: a chance to find out how the top two winningest teams in the National League would fare against each other. The Mets took two of three to walk away feeling more triumphant than Timmy Trumpet pantomime riding his namesake instrument.
The games were great, hard fought and close, and the results speak to the possibility that the Mets will make a deep postseason run come October. But they do not upend the existing hierarchy or dislodge from the top spot the Dodgers, who can add their one win in Flushing to 92 others, plus a whole backlog from recent seasons.
The top of their lineup boasts rings from three other clubs: Mookie Betts, who won in 2018 with the Boston Red Sox; Trea Turner, who won in 2019 with the Washington Nationals; and Freddie Freeman, who won last season with the Atlanta Braves.
They know how it feels to play on a championship-caliber team, so what makes the Dodgers different?
I think that was a little bit more of a cultural thing, Turner said about the Nationals team that went from 19-31 to wild card to World Series winners.
We all liked each other and hung out with each other and we were really close. So I think talent, plus how much we enjoy one another was the success there. Here, we definitely enjoy each other and I think we've come together a lot in the last few months, which is really important and cool but I just think we would have won regardless, whether we liked each other or not. Just cause of the talent and everything.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' Max Muncy gestures as he heads to third after hitting a solo home run during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Insofar as the Dodgers have a secret sauce, this explanation does little to illuminate it. Which makes sense. Their secret part is how theyre able to turn 31-year-old below-average pitcher Andrew Heaney into a sub-3.00 middle-of-the-rotation regular on a staff with the best ERA in baseball. Acquiring guys like Turner practically an afterthought of the Max Scherzer deal that brought him to L.A. last summer thats the fun part of being a behemoth.
Story continues
The answer has stuck with me ever since anyway. Not because it says anything especially revelatory about the inner workings of a specific organization, but because it reflects a funny sort of paradigm in the sport. To win a World Series you need a mercurial magic thats hard to define and impossible to predict. Sustained excellence is something much simpler. Not easier, just simpler.
MLBs postseason is one month away. Down the stretch, teams will jockey for a berth that erases the previous six months. In October anything can happen. And in the end well crown a deserving champion that every baseball season requires the last team standing to both run a marathon and then survive a sprint is a feature, not a bug. But since were to the part of the year where the superlatives start to really mean something, it just feels worth mentioning that we already know the best team in each league. Its been the same two for the past five years.
The Dodgers got a head start. Including 2022 (and I feel pretty good about doing so), theyll have finished first in the NL West nine out of 10 seasons. The one year they didnt, they matched a franchise-high with 106 wins and came up just short in a division race that deserves to have a book or maybe an epic poem written about it. So just keep that in mind for your own sense of awe the Dodgers have been doing this for nearly twice as long as we tighten the time frame to include the ALs best: the Houston Astros.
Since the start of 2017, the Dodgers have won 544 games, the most in MLB. The Astros are second with 522. Only one other team clears 500, the Yankees with exactly that many.
(Their continued success in the years since does not excuse the Astros sign-stealing, but it provides a compelling, if complicated, case that they would have been good without it. Three years after the sanctions, theyre on pace for 104 wins. Youd have to think they stole 22 wins to undermine this argument.)
This is no fluke: Houston has scored the most runs in that span; L.A. is second. L.A. has given up the fewest runs in that span; Houston is second. They have the highest two team wRC+ in that time and the lowest two ERAs. Defense is harder to distill into a universally accepted metric, but they also have the lowest two opposing BABIP in that time, a testament to the ineffectiveness of putting the ball in play against them.
Both their championships come with caveats, shall we say, and each would likely need another to entertain dynastic consideration. But even the rings they have are notable: The other three winningest teams in that five-year span Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians have all failed to win a World Series. Consistently dominating the regular season and peaking in the postseason is a tier of two.
Well, we werent good for a lot of years, obviously, Lance McCullers Jr. said recently of the Astros run of success. And thats certainly part of it. They did this on purpose, and being bad was part of that plan. But the cyclical sacrifice required to tank is precisely why sustainability is considered the ultimate achievement. And including 2017, neither the Dodgers nor Astros have selected higher than 15th in the draft since.
The Houston Astros' Jose Altuve (27) celebrates his solo home run with Yordan Alvarez during the third inning against the Texas Rangers on Tuesday in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
McCullers drew the connection between the Astros front office and disgraced former general manager Jeff Luhnows career start with the St. Louis Cardinals, a club that has managed to stay similarly relevant if not quite as fruitful with a smaller payroll and for far longer. St. Louis has had only one losing season this millennium, reliably turning middle-of-the-pack draft slots into homegrown talent that learns to win together in the lower levels, expertly complemented by a select few high-profile acquisitions.
And to that blueprint, the Astros added early adoption of advanced analytics.
It's not only here's the information, it's here's the information and here's how you should try and apply it, Astros third baseman Alex Bregman said recently.
McCullers said the Astros have always used data to simplify players processes, rather than complicate them. Bench coach Joe Espada, who coached for the Miami Marlins and Yankees, added: Its just part of our DNA, its who we are and it's part of our process. It's actually the best I've seen on the teams that I've been with.
Of course all good teams rely on data. Beyond that, Turner distills the Dodgers particular strengths down to depth and matchups.
Well, that and relatively unmatched financial might.
They do a really good job putting people in a position to have success here, he said. So not only do they have the depth from development, spending the money and all that, but then also I feel like the matchups and the way they use people is really efficient.
This is all a pretty long-winded way of saying look at the cumulative standings. And a pretty cursory look at the machinations behind the scene that make them possible. But since the whole point is to determine the top teams, its worth considering that at a certain scale, the answer and the evidence is incontrovertible. There will be plenty of good stories in October this year, mostly premised on long droughts and skin-of-their-teeth finishes. Plus two teams with the best cases to be there and that can be fun, too.
Just ask Trey Mancini, whose career with the Baltimore Orioles involved a lot of losing in service of what is hopefully an Astros-esque future before getting traded to Houston at the deadline. Recently, he provided a compelling assessment of the vibes inside a clubhouse thats used to winning.
It's great, he said. "I mean, it's awesome.
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Making sense of the Dodgers' and Astros' sustained success is rather simple - Yahoo Sports
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College football betting: Don’t be afraid to lay the points on big spreads – Yahoo Sports
Posted: at 6:17 pm
The start of the college football season is a mixed bag. The excitement is palpable as everybody is ready to have their Saturdays filled with college football again. However, most of the games are non-conference games. While there are some intriguing non-conference matchups every week, there are also a lot of one-sided matchups on the schedule. Some teams use the first few weeks as a preseason and don't want to take the risk of an early season loss ruining their season.
As a result of the scheduling, the first few weeks are littered with large spreads. For every marquee Notre Dame vs. Ohio State matchup, there are two or three Alabama-Utah State matchups. Large spreads scare off a lot of bettors as it's hard to judge how willing a team will be to run up the score. There's also the possibility of backups playing a lot of the game. Some bettors don't want to mess around with that stuff. If you're one of those bettors, you might want to rethink your stance as you left some money on the table in Week 1.
In Week 1, FBS teams that were favored by at least four touchdowns against other FBS teams went 8-0 against the spread. Those results included:
Alabama 55 - Utah State 0 (Alabama -42)
USC 66 - Rice 14 (USC -32.5)
Michigan 51 - Colorado State 7 (Michigan -30.5)
Texas 52 - UL Monroe 10 (Texas -37)
Oklahoma 45 - UTEP 13 (Oklahoma -31)
Tennessee 59 - Ball State 10 (Tennessee -37)
Minnesota 38 - New Mexico State 0 (Minnesota -36)
Tulane 42 - UMass 10 (Tulane -28.5)
A lot of people are cautious when it comes to big spreads. Some try and get cute and bet first-half lines or first-quarter lines to avoid any late-game shenanigans. Others avoid the game all together. However, at least in Week 1, it was as simple as just laying the massive number with the favorite for the whole game.
There's no denying there's a wide gap in talent between teams at the college level. These spreads are massive for a reason. The lesser teams have little chance of keeping up. Most of these teams have backups better than the other team's starters.
Story continues
Jim Harbaugh and Michigan covered as massive favorites in Week 1. Can they do it again in Week 2 of the college football season? (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
However, the narrative becomes different when you look at FBS teams going up against FCS teams. In those scenarios, the FBS team was just 11-11 against the spread when laying at least four touchdowns. Maybe those teams are lesser known and harder to gameplan for. Maybe teams have a harder time getting up for games against little-known FCS schools.
Will the trend of FBS teams covering large spreads against other FBS schools continue in Week 2? Here's a list of games that meet the criteria in Week 2:
Ohio State's offense looked a bit lethargic in their opener against Notre Dame, though you have to give some credit to the Fighting Irish defense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn't play much in the opener, and he's expected to miss 1-2 weeks with a hamstring injury.
Arkansas State is coming off a 55-3 win in their opener against Grambling State. It's hard to take much out of that game, but former Florida State quarterback James Blackman was efficient, going 15-of-20 for 210 yards and two touchdowns for the Red Wolves.
Ohio State is a 44-point favorite on Saturday.
Western Michigan was within a score of Michigan State in the third quarter, but two fourth-quarter touchdowns from the Spartans got their backers a rather undeserved cover as 21.5-point favorites. On the other side, Akron needed overtime to knock off St. Francis PA in their opener. Michigan State is a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday.
Brent Venables' coaching debut went rather well, as Oklahoma covered as 31-point favorites against UTEP. UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel was efficient, averaging over 10 yards per attempt and throwing two touchdowns. The Sooners averaged nearly 7 yards per carry on the ground. They are back in the massive favorite role this week, as Oklahoma is a 33.5-point favorite against Kent State. The Golden Flashes failed to cover as 23-point underdogs in a 45-20 loss to Washington in Week 1.
Michigan rolled in its opener, winning 51-7 as a 30.5-point favorite against Colorado State. However, there are still question marks surrounding Michigan. J.J. McCarthy will take the first snap for the Wolverines this week as he and Cade McNamara continue to split quarterback duties. McNamara started last week and was far from impressive. He went 9-for-18 for 136 yards, 61 of which came on a bubble screen to Roman Wilson. Despite the quarterback questions, the defense was dominant and Michigan pounded the ball on the ground.
Michigan is a 51.5-point favorite against Hawaii this weekend. Hawaii has been putrid to start the season, getting outscored 112-27 combined by Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky. The defense hasn't stopped anyone and the offense isn't doing much either. It feels like Michigan will be able to pick its score here, and we know Jim Harbaugh has no issue with bullying lesser teams.
Toledo beat Long Island University by a score of 37-0 in their opener, but failed to cover as a 47.5-point favorite. UMass projects to be one of the worst FBS teams again, as it failed to cover as a 28.5-point underdog against Tulane in Week 1. Toledo is a 28-point favorite this week.
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College football betting: Don't be afraid to lay the points on big spreads - Yahoo Sports
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3M Announces Final Proration Factor of 7.346065 Percent for Shares Tendered in Split-Off Exchange Offer – Yahoo Finance
Posted: at 6:17 pm
ST. PAUL, Minn., Sept. 6, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- 3M (NYSE: MMM) announced today the final proration factor of 7.346065 percent in its split-off exchange offer to 3M stockholders in connection with the separation of 3M's food safety business and merger of Garden SpinCo Corporation ("SpinCo"), the 3M subsidiary holding the food safety business, with a subsidiary of Neogen Corporation.
A total of approximately 203,610,687 shares of 3M common stock were validly tendered and not properly withdrawn in the exchange offer, including approximately 1,114,015 shares tendered by odd-lot stockholders not subject to proration. All tenders by odd-lot shareholders were fully accepted in the offer. The remaining validly tendered shares of 3M common stock were accepted in the exchange on a pro rata basis using the final proration factor of 7.346065 percent. Shares of 3M common stock that were validly tendered but not accepted for exchange are expected to be returned to tendering stockholders on or around September 8, 2022.
Under the terms of the exchange offer, 108,269,946 shares of SpinCo common stock were available in exchange for shares of 3M common stock accepted in the exchange offer. The final exchange ratio for the exchange offer was set at 6.7713shares of SpinCo common stock for each share of 3M common stock validly tendered and not properly withdrawn. In the merger, each share of SpinCo common stock automatically converted into the right to receive one share of Neogen common stock. Accordingly, 3M stockholders who tendered shares of 3M common stock in the exchange offer will receive approximately 6.7713shares of Neogen common stock (subject to the receipt of cash in lieu of fractional shares) for each share of 3M common stock tendered and accepted for exchange. 3M accepted approximately 15,989,536 shares of 3M common stock for exchange in the exchange offer.
About 3M
3M (NYSE: MMM) believes science helps create a brighter world for everyone. By unlocking the power of people, ideas and science to reimagine what's possible, our globalteam uniquely addresses theopportunities and challengesof our customers, communities, and planet. Learn how we're working to improve lives and make what's nextat3M.com/newsor on Twitter at@3Mor@3MNews.
3M Media Contact:Jennifer Ehrlich(651) 592-0132 or 3Mnews@mmm.com
3M Investor Contact:Bruce Jermeland(651) 733-1807
Diane Farrow (612)202-2449
Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This release includes "forward-looking statements" as that term is defined in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding the transaction between Neogen, 3M and SpinCo. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words "believe," "project," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "forecast," "outlook," "target," "endeavor," "seek," "predict," "intend," "strategy," "plan," "may," "could," "should," "will," "would," "will be," "will continue," "will likely result," or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. All statements, other than historical facts, including, but not limited to, the expected benefits of the transaction, including future financial and operating results and strategic benefits, the tax consequences of the transaction, and the combined Neogen-SpinCo company's plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, legal, economic and regulatory conditions, and any assumptions underlying any of the foregoing, are forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are based on Neogen and 3M's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from Neogen and 3M's current expectations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those indicated or anticipated by such forward-looking statements. The inclusion of such statements should not be regarded as a representation that such plans, estimates or expectations will be achieved. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from such plans, estimates or expectations include, among others, (1) unexpected costs, charges or expenses resulting from the transaction; (2) uncertainty of the expected financial performance of the combined company following completion of the transaction; (3) failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the transaction, including as a result of delay in integrating the business of Neogen and the Food Safety Business, on the expected timeframe or at all; (4) the ability of the combined company to implement its business strategy; (5) difficulties and delays in the combined company achieving revenue and cost synergies; (6) inability of the combined company to retain and hire key personnel; (7) the risk that stockholder litigation in connection with the transaction or other litigation, settlements or investigations may result in significant costs of defense, indemnification and liability; (8) evolving legal, regulatory and tax regimes; (9) changes in general economic and/or industry specific conditions; (10) actions by third parties, including government agencies; and (11) risk factors detailed from time to time in Neogen's and 3M's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including Neogen's and 3M's annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with the SEC, including Neogen's registration statement on Form S-4 (Reg. No. 333-263667) that includes a prospectus relating to the shares of Neogen common stock issued in the transaction, as amended and supplemented (the "Neogen Registration Statement"), which was declared effective by the SEC on August 4, 2022, and SpinCo's registration statement on Form S-4 and Form S-1 (Reg. No. 333-263669) in connection with its separation from 3M that contains a prospectus relating to the shares of SpinCo common stock issued in the transaction, as amended and supplemented (the "SpinCo Registration Statement"), which was declared effective by the SEC on August 4, 2022, in each case, filed with the SEC in connection with the transaction. The foregoing list of important factors is not exclusive.
Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this communication. None of Neogen, 3M or SpinCo undertakes, and each party expressly disclaims, any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or development, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements.
3M (PRNewsfoto/3M)
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Here’s everything Apple announced today at its "Far Out" iPhone event – Yahoo Finance
Posted: at 6:17 pm
It's Apple event day, which means new hardware galore. New iPhones! New Apple Watches! New AirPods! Didn't have time to tune in live? Don't sweat it we've summed up the most important parts for easy skimming.
Apple came out swingin' with not one, not two, but four new iPhones: iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max.
The iPhone 14 will have a 6.1" display, while the iPhone 14 Plus display will come in at 6.7". Both will run the A15 Bionic chip first seen in last year's iPhone 13 Pro. There's a 12MP rear camera (which Apple now refers to as the "main" camera) with a larger sensor on the back, while the 12MP front facing camera is getting a fancy new auto-focus system for better/faster selfies.
iPhone 14 will start at $799, while the iPhone 14 Plus starts at $899. Pre-orders start September 9th; the iPhone 14 will ship starting September 16th, while the iPhone 14 Plus will ship starting October 7th.
Notably, both models will drop the physical SIM tray in the US they'll be eSIM only, preventing your SIM card from beingpopped into a different phone if it's lost or stolen.
Like those models, the iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Max will come in at 6.1" and 6.7" respectively. So what's different?
Both Pro models will run on an all new chip, the aptly named A16 Bionic.
Apple has shifted the front-facing camera notch away from the edge and into the display itself with a design it calls the "dynamic island", which is meant to let the pill-shaped camera cutout sort of blend into darker elements of the interface like so:
For the first time in an iPhone, the Pro models will have always-on displays.
2000 nit outdoor brightness for greatly improved outdoor visibility.
The rear side of the phone has 3 lenses: a 48 megapixel main camera, a 12MP telephoto lens, and a 12MP ultra-wide lens that Apple says is capable of much sharper shots than before.
iPhone 14 Pro will start at $999, while iPhone 14 Pro Max will start at $1099. Both go up for pre-order on September 9th and start shipping on September 16th.
Story continues
As for the reason behind the "Far Out"/space theming of the event: iPhones are getting emergency satellite connectivity. Should you end up in danger in a spot with no wifi/cell connectivity, these new iPhones will be able to connect to satellites to send compressed emergency messages and alerts. Apple says the satellite service will be included for free for two years, but hasn't yet mentioned cost after that.
At a glance, the Apple Watch Series 8 looks a whole lot like the Series 7 that came before it. Under the hood, though, it's got a few new tricks:
A pair of temperature sensors can track changes to your body temperature over time. This can, for example, help wearers more accurately track ovulation cycles.
More capable sensor suite that can detect if you're in a car crash and begin the process of contacting emergency services.
Apple Watch Series 8 will start at $399 for the GPS model, or $499 for the GPS + Cellular model. It'll ship starting September 16th.
For the last few weeks, rumors have suggested Apple was working on a more rugged Watch tuned for athletes. Sure enough, today they announced Apple Watch Ultra. Here's what's different:
A dedicated "action button" that lets you do things like instantly start your workout, or mark the next segment of a race.
A larger digital crown meant to be usable while wearing gloves
It's louder, thanks to a second speaker and its got a built in 86db siren mode for situations where you need someone to be able to find you, fast.
Improved compass functionality to keep you heading in the right direction, allowing you to track direction/distance to custom-set waypoints.
A quick-toggle "night mode" that shifts the screen to red to limit how much your eyes need to constantly readjust in a dark environment.
36 hours of battery life (or 60 hours of battery life on a "new battery optimization setting coming this fall")
It's certified for "recreational scuba", allowing you to take it down to 130 ft underwater
New sports-focused bands, like a woven "Alpine" loop for climbers and an "Ocean" loop meant to fit over a wet suit.
Apple Watch Ultra will start at $799; shipping begins on September 23rd.
apple airpods 2nd gen apple fall event
Image Credits:Apple
Three years after the launch of AirPods Pro, version two is here. So what's new?
A new, low distortion audio driver and amplifier for improved sound
If you've got an iPhone with a true-depth camera, you'll be able to use it to make a "personalized spatial audio profile" based on the shape of your ear.
Touch-based controls on the stem, instead of the squeeze-based controls of V1.
Noise cancellation which is now, according to Apple, twice as effective.
Up to 6 hours of listening time per charge, with up to 30 hours of additional charge in the carrying case.
There's a speaker built-in to the bottom of the case that can be triggered to help you find it when it slips into your couch
The charging case can now be charged with an Apple Watch charger, in addition to a lightning cable.
The new AirPods Pro Series 2 will sell for $249 starting on September 23rd.
read more about Apple's fall event, September 7, 2022
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Here's everything Apple announced today at its "Far Out" iPhone event - Yahoo Finance
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West reluctant to put Putin on trial, say Ukrainian officials – The Guardian
Posted: at 6:15 pm
Ukraines major western allies have yet to sign up to establish a tribunal to try Vladimir Putin and his inner circle for the crime of aggression, wanting to leave space for future relations with Russia, according to Ukraines top officials.
Its big politics. On the one hand, countries publicly condemn the aggression but on the other, they are putting their foot in the closing door on relations with Russia so that it doesnt close completely, said Andriy Smyrnov, deputy head of Ukraines presidential administration, who is leading the countrys effort to establish the international tribunal.
They are attempting to keep some space for diplomatic manoeuvres, said Smyrnov. We know that agreements with Russia are not worth the paper they are written on.
His claims come as the US president, Joe Biden, said on Monday that Russia should not be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism, something Ukrainian officials and some US politicians had pushed for. Russia had previously said such a designation would mean Washington had crossed the point of no return.
Ukrainian officials say that since April, they have been trying to convince their western allies to establish an ad hoc tribunal which would hold Russias senior leadership responsible for the crime of aggression for invading Ukraine. Aggression is viewed as the supreme crime under international law because without the transgression of borders during an invasion, subsequent war crimes would not have been committed.
So far only the Baltic states and Poland have pledged support for the tribunal, said Ukraines officials. We are expecting broader support, said Ukraines prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin. For us, the support of the UK and the US is very important as well as the rest of the civilised world, said Smyrnov.
The UKs newly elected prime minister, Liz Truss, told Times Radio in May, when she was foreign secretary, that she would consider supporting the tribunal. The Council of Europe is due to discuss support for such a measure on 13 September.
At an event in Brussels on Monday, Andriy Yermak chief adviser to Ukraines president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy asked why there was a delay in creating the tribunal and said some European officials seemed convinced the international criminal court (ICC) was enough.
At the same event, the European commissioner for justice, Didier Reynders, said he was open to the idea, but talked mainly about help the EU is giving to compile war crimes which can be referred to the ICC.
Ukraine favours a one-off international tribunal to try the Russian leadership for aggression, which is not within the ICCs jurisdiction. The court is set to bring cases of war crimes which require prosecutors to identify the direct perpetrators of a crime and then trace the command structure upwards, making it difficult to reach the top echelons of the Russian regime.
Western allies have, however, been reluctant to move to try Putin and other senior figures, an act that would probably end all relations. Ukraine believes this is an indication that, despite the scale of atrocities and public declarations against Russia, some of its allies envisage possible negotiations with Russias current leadership.
It will be like trying the concentration camp directors and letting Hitler and his team walk free, said Oleh Gavrysh, part of Smyrnovs team in the presidential office. During the Nuremberg trials after the second world war, Nazi leaders were tried for the crime of aggression, which was then known as the crime against peace.
Ukraines officials say the case would not need much investigation and would act as a straightforward mechanism to ensure the Kremlins decision makers face responsibility since the fact that the act of aggression took place was overwhelmingly accepted by a vote at the UN general assembly and has been supported by a resolution of the European parliament. It has also been repeatedly admitted by Putin and his circle.
The legal arm of the Open Society Foundations has drawn up a preliminary indictment of Putin and seven of his closest allies for the crime of aggression. It said it hoped the document can demonstrate the feasibility of such a tribunal.
When you help the ICC, you donate to the independent judicial authority and you are not linked somehow to the result, said Kostin, Ukraines chief prosecutor. When you support [a] tribunal, you act as a state, its a political act and not all of them, at the moment, are ready to politically support this.
He added: Russia is like terra incognita (unexplored territory) for many of them and some of them want to keep some room to, if not be friends again, but to have some relations, which I dont understand and no Ukrainians will understand.
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Some states have viewed the idea of the tribunal with scepticism because Putin and his men would probably be tried in absentia, said Smyrnov.
The main thing I want to say to the sceptic countries is that the creation of this tribunal is not a question of symbolism, said Smyrnov.
It makes no difference if Putin is personally present at this tribunal. [If] the majority of civilised countries in the world sign this international agreement to establish the tribunal we will narrow down and limit the international allies of Putin.
If Putins circle is narrowed down to North Korea and Syria that will be very good and if [Putin] dies in his own country labelled as an international criminal, that will be concrete punishment.
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Exiled Russian calls on those still in country to sabotage Putins war – The Guardian
Posted: at 6:15 pm
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian businessman, has called on Russians still inside the country to launch a wave of sabotage against state structures, with the aim of derailing Vladimir Putins war in Ukraine and destabilising his government.
Khodorkovsky, who spent a decade in jail between 2003 and 2013 and now lives in London, said Putins invasion had completely changed the agenda for Russias political opposition, and claimed that armed resistance may play a role at some point in the future.
We need to explain to people what they can do, persuade them that they should do it, and also help people if as a result they end up in a dangerous situation, Khodorkovsky told the Guardian.
He said potential actions should depend on each persons tolerance for risk, and could range from painting anti-war graffiti in the streets to sabotaging railway deliveries linked to the war or burning down conscription offices.
But we are very clearly against terrorist methods that harm unarmed people, he said, criticising the killing of Darya Dugina, the daughter of a Russian imperialist ideologue, last month, which was claimed without any evidence by a hitherto unknown group of Russian partisans.
Khodorkovsky was speaking in his first interview about his new book, The Russia Conundrum, which is out later this week. Part memoir and part analysis of Putins years in office, the book lays out a template for western states on how to deal with Moscow.
Khodorkovsky has one of the most remarkable personal stories of post-Soviet Russia, rising from economic beginnings in the Youth Communist League during Mikhail Gorbachevs reforms in the late 1980s to become Russias richest businessperson through his chairmanship of Yukos oil company.
In the book, Khodorkovsky describes his early meetings with Putin, which he left convinced that the new Russian president was an ideological ally. His technique is to look at you and mirror what you are saying Hes a chameleon who leaves everyone thinking hes on their side, he writes.
Looking back, he admits he completely misread Putin. I wasnt sharp enough to see it. He has that professional KGB skill of adapting to his interlocutor, but he also just has a personal talent for it Back then, he didnt feel stable in his position and he didnt want to create enemies who would unite against him. Of course he never had any liberal views.
In 2003, Khodorkovsky was arrested on charges widely seen as political, after he publicly criticised government corruption during a meeting with Putin, and promised to fund opposition parties. His arrest was seen as one of the first milestones in Putins gradual tightening of the screws over the past two decades.
Khodorkovsky said Putins decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine had shocked him anew, and completely changed his views on how best to oppose the regime.
Of course, [the invasion] was an absolutely fundamental moment. My impressions and feelings before and after 24 February are completely different, he said.
All four of Khodorkovskys grandparents were either Ukrainian or spent time living in Ukraine, and as a young child, he used to spend summers at his great-grandmothers house near Kharkiv. Nevertheless, he always identified as Russian.
It always felt normal, nothing to be ashamed of to be Russian. Now every time you say youre Russian, there is an internal discomfort, he said.
Like many Russians, Khodorkovsky has had arguments in recent months that have ended longstanding friendships. He said even among friends who supported him through his years of imprisonment, some had turned out to be fans of the Ukraine invasion.
Imagine, you know people since you were both seven years old, and now youre both nearly 60 and you just cant speak to them, he said.
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However, he also said it was important for the west to focus on the many Russians who did not support Putins regime or the war in Ukraine. He is strongly against the policy being floated in some European capitals of a full ban on tourist visas for Russians.
The west has ideological allies inside Russia, who think that Russia should develop on a European path, he said.
If Putin lives another 10 or 15 years it would really lower the number of European oriented Russians, and I dont think this is good for anyone except Putin.
During his decade in London, Khodorkovsky has remained an active commentator on issues inside Russia, and funded various civil society movements through his Open Russia foundation, which was ruled an undesirable organisation by Russian courts back in 2017 and ceased operations.
He was one of many opposition figures to address the so-called Congress of Free Russia, which took place in Lithuania last week and aimed to come up with a coordinated platform for opposition to Putin. But critics say much of the opposition is now disconnected from life inside the country. Associates of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny declined to take part in the Lithuania congress, dismissing it as a meaningless talking shop. For now, it is hard to see a mass opposition movement being possible inside Russia.
Khodorkovsky said that, sooner or later, Putins regime would fall. One key element in this will be Ukraine winning the war, he hopes. Then, Russia should be reformatted as a loose parliamentary federation. There was a path to this outcome that did not involve bloodshed, he claimed, but its rather unlikely.
The most important thing, he said, was for the west not to write Russia off completely, so that when the crunch moment did come, there would be more chance of post-Putin Russia being liberal and pro-western.
This is a nightmare, but this nightmare does not mean that Russia and Europe have separated for ever. Its extremely important that in this difficult emotional background, we keep a sound mind, pragmatism and a vision of the future, of a democratic, European Russia, he said.
The Russia Conundrum: How the West Fell for Putins Power Gambit and How to Fix It by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, with Martin Sixsmith, will be published on 8 September by WH Allen, 20
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Six Months of War: What Putin Wanted; What Putin Got – The Moscow Times
Posted: at 6:15 pm
Declarations
In the early morning of the first day of the war on Feb. 24, President Vladimir Putin defined the objectives of the countrys "special operation" as "protecting the inhabitants of Donbas, demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine," and "bringing to justice those who have committed innumerable bloody crimes."
Continuing a Soviet tradition the invasion of Czechoslovakia in August 1968 and Afghanistan in December 1979 Putin said that he had "decided on a special military operation" in response to a request from the leaders of Donbas. And he stressed that "Russia has no plans to occupy Ukrainian territories.
Two and a half months later, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov complimented his boss, saying that the special military operation was designed to put an end to the reckless expansion and the reckless course of total U.S. domination." Four months later he corrected Putin: "the geographical objectives of the 'special operation' have changed. Now it is not only the DNR and LNR [Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics], but also a number of other territories." And one of the generals even issued the enigmatic statement that "control over the South of Ukraine is another path to Transnistria [a Moldovan break-away state supported by Russia], where facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are also being observed."
Ultimate goals multiplied in the statements of various Russian officials, from security chief Nikolai Patrushev and parliament chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, Sergei Lavrov and presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, and Putin himself. Now they included "preventing war from starting on the territory of Ukraine"; "restoring the statehood of the LNR and DNR within the borders of 2014; and "achieving a guarantee of Ukraine's real neutral status."
The "demilitarization" of Ukraine? In the six months of war Ukraine has received the most modern Western-made weapons worth tens of billions of dollars that it did not have before. Just the latest tranche for weapons, air defense systems, surface-to-air missiles, radars and artillery from the U.S. government was valued at $2.98 billion.
Denazification of Ukraine? It seems that no one except the Russian Chekists doing reconnaissance has seen them, and if someone else did see some Nazis, there were about as many of them in Ukraine as there are on Moscows Pushkin Square on Adolf Hitler's birthday. None of the dozens of journalists from around the world who broadcast their reports from Ukraine have met any Nazis or fascists. But the rhetoric from various Russian official and quasi-official speakers makes us think that some of the thousands of recordings of Hitlers speeches were put to good use.
Protecting the Russian-speaking population of the eastern and southern regions? Where were they protected in the almost completely destroyed city of Mariupol, where more than 89% of the population considered Russian their spoken language? Or in Kharkiv, which has been mercilessly bombed for week after week, killing civilians, and where 95% of the population speak (spoke?) Russian? Or Mykolaiv, where over 50% of the population, according to the census, speak Russian as their mother tongue, and which is being destroyed by cluster bombs, according to a Philadelphia Inquire reporter who was just there? A curious defense strategy: pile up the corpses of the people youre defending.
Putin, and Peskov after him, called the goal of the military operation the restoration of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk republics to their 2014 borders. Today Russian troops control almost all of the Luhansk region and less than 60 percent of the Donetsk. Judging by reports from the fronts, this situation is not going to change any time soon.
It certainly doesnt look like it. A year before the war, in February 2021, there were 4,650 soldiers and officers under NATO command, and now there are almost ten times as many 40,000. In the near future, the number of NATO troops will increase to 300,000. This, military analysts say, is the largest increase in NATO strength since the end of the Cold War. The border between Russia and NATO countries also doubled after Finland and Sweden joined the alliance from 1,207 to 2,575 km.
And now the cost. According to American intelligence, the irrecoverable losses of the Russian Armed Forces in the six months of the war amounted to 70-80,000: 15-20,000 dead (during the 9 years and 2 months of the Afghan war about 15,000 Soviet soldiers and officers were killed), and 60,000 wounded and captured (in Afghanistan over 110 months about 35,000).
Over the six months of war, the Russian army has lost 3-4,000 tanks and armored personnel carriers. Almost all the countrys high-precision weapons have been used, and the production of new missiles is held up because they cant get microchips and semiconductors, which are under sanctions. Anti-ship missiles and Soviet Grads, which have a range of several hundred meters, are being used for strikes.
The shortage of hardware has forced the Russian army to scavenge for weapons, transfer them by quasi-trade ships from the military base in Syria, buy drones from Iran, and even consider North Korea's offer to buy artillery from them.
The situation with manpower is even worse. Due to their heavy losses, Russia is carrying out voluntary mobilization. According to various estimates, 30-35,000 volunteers have been sent to training camps with subsequent deployment in the active army. Soldiers are also being recruited from high-security prisons and deployed in private security companies. Battalions that carried out peacekeeping duties in Nagorno-Karabakh and troops from de facto annexed South Ossetia are also being sent to the front.
Each day of the war costs taxpayers about $500 million. In July, Finance Ministry statistics showed a federal budget deficit of 892 billion rubles, a drop of 22.5% in oil and gas revenues despite high energy prices, and a nearly 30% drop in revenue from tax collection. The expected loss of GDP by the end of the year is 8%, with a further contraction of the economy over the course of a year and a half or two years. These are the calculations for the summer of 2022, when many private Russian banks can still to conduct transactions with the rest of the world and the country is not cut off from SWIFT. But there can be no doubt that the West will choke the Russian economy before it begins to be choked by its own declining level of technological development, and the Russian military-industrial complex will no longer a threat to Europe and the world.
An investigation by Washington Post journalists indicates that Putins initial goal was to totally occupy all of Ukraine.
This seems strange, given that Stratfor military analysts played out five or six scenarios for Russia's war with Ukraine back in 2015 and concluded that the Russian Armed Forces would need between 91,000 and 135,000 troops just to seize the so-called left bank of Ukraine and an equal number to hold the occupied territories. The total is 182,000 to 270,000 troops needed. Military analyst Alexander Goltz wrote in a 2014 article for The New Times that Russia would need at least 100,000 troops to hold southeastern Ukraine alone. Note that both analyses came out before the Ukrainian Armed Forces were reformed and equipped with the most modern weapons.
Today there are approximately 170,000 Russian soldiers and officers on the Ukrainian fronts, and 20% of Ukrainian territory is occupied. A simple extrapolation shows that Russia would need about a million men to occupy and hold the entire country. Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin signed an order to increase the army by 137,000 starting on January 1, 2023.
My Moscow sources who met with Putin on the eve of the military operation do not believe that the Federal Security Service deceived the Russian president by convincing him that everything was ready by Feb. 24 for a quick capture of Kyiv or a blitzkrieg. This was much discussed in the first months of the war and recently covered by the Washington Post.
First of all, they said that in the week before operation began, Putin listened to a variety of people, both those who supported the war and those who opposed it. It is highly unlikely that Chekists or army officers gave him false information, but they probably gave him the information that he wanted to see.
Secondly, they say that there was no plan for the army to occupy the entire country. The goal was to eliminate President Vladimir Zelensky (or force him to leave the country), and then, the KGB officers thought, there would be a domino effect: mayors and regional leaders would either run or swear allegiance to Russia in droves. The logic was as follows: Yanukovich, a "tough guy" with experience of prison and gangster capitalism, was so frightened by the Maidan demonstrations away in 2014 that he fled the country. So what could anyone expect from "that clown Zelensky"? The fact that Zelensky did not leave, did not surrender, did not ask for peace came as a great surprise to Putin: the habit of thinking that the world is run like it is in Russia and that politicians everywhere are a priori greedy and opportunistic has once again let the Kremlin down.
Then what does Putin want? "To tear Ukraine to pieces," said a source at the top of the Russian political elite. "But now I think the Kremlin is ready to codify the status quo," said another. That is, Putin is ready for peace talks concerning a map in which 20% of Ukrainian territory is controlled by Russian troops.
I am often asked why there is no widespread anti-war protest in Russia. My answer is to cite the figures quoted by OVD-Info. More than 16,000 people have been detained and over 20,000 cases were opened under Article 20.2 of the Code of Administrative Offences ("Violation of the established order of organizing or holding meetings, rallies, demonstrations, marches or pickets").
Almost every day the few surviving regional websites report that in one place a man with a "No to War" T-shirt came outside and was immediately handcuffed; and in another place a woman held up a "Putin is a war criminal" banner and was, of course, taken away; or even that in a third place a person held up a Mir (Peace) state credit card and was taken in for protesting.
In recent months 3003 people were convicted of committing misdemeanors under laws of military censorship for "discrediting the army" and hundreds have been charged with "intentionally spreading deliberately false information. What false information did The New Times, for example, disseminate, for which it received four administrative penalties? We wrote about the bombing of Kharkiv, Odesa and Mykolaiv. But since the information the outlet published had not been published on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the judge concluded that it hadn't happened. Besides, according to the prosecution, as early as Feb. 24, the Commander-in-Chief said that a special military operation was being conducted in order to protect Russia from an invasion ... from the territory of Ukraine.
According to lawyer and human rights activist Pavel Chikov, 85 criminal cases have been opened to date for "discrediting the army. A certain unspoken rule has been established for well-known people: first, the authorities provide three "administrative cases," followed by a window of 3-4 weeks for the person to leave, and if he/she does not leave, there is a search just before 6 a.m. and then arrest.
This was the case, for example, with Ilya Yashin, Marina Ovsyannikova, and Evgeny Roizman. Alexei Gorinov, a municipal deputy in the Krasnoselsky District, did not get an administrative conviction. He was immediately sentenced to a criminal offense for "military fakes" and sentenced to seven years in prison.
So, the first and foremost reason for the lack of large-scale anti-war protest is fear, which had been the main tool of the KGB during the long years of Soviet power.
When I asked people at a market in Tver, What do you think of the special military operation, only unequivocal supporters replied. Everyone else either declined to answer or slipped behind phrases like, we don't know everything" or "who knows who started it? People who agree to speak in a pre-arranged place asked not to specify their profession or place of work since "the town is small and theyll figure it out.
In Pskov, Pskovskaya Guberniya journalists and Yabloko activists were beaten up as early as March 5. After that, many well-known people in the city left for the neighboring Baltic states. The ones who stayed behind dont even post on social networks, leave alone take part in any street actions.
In Novgorod, in front of the hotel where I was staying which I had intentionally not booked in advance there was a large black SUV from which photographs were very obviously taken of all the people Id arranged to meet. They don't talk to strangers about the war there, and if they do agree to answer questions, its because they have a relative in, say, Kharkiv, and they speak with horror about what is happening.
In Serpukhov, none of the people interviewed agreed to speak under their real name. They are afraid of losing their jobs, although one said confidentially that he and a friend agreed that if they are forcibly mobilized, they will immediately surrender to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The second reason for civil passivity is the lack of leaders.
Some like Alexei Navalny, Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza are already in jail, while others many tens of thousands went into exile in the early weeks of the war. People live by example: if celebrities and well-known people have left, I was told, then it means "we will be trampled. They try to find Polish, Baltic, or Jewish roots and leave.
Finally, the restriction on access to information plays an important role. Since the beginning of the war the General Prosecutor's Office and the courts have blocked about 7,000 websites on the basis of laws about military censorship; all independent mass media, central and regional, agencies, foundations are blocked without exception; entire editorial boards have emigrated from the country. Hundreds of politicians, journalists, and public figures have been given the vile label of "foreign agent" in my case, for the money earned from a YouTube channel. At the same time, the number of VPN downloads has risen sharply by 25 times! since the beginning of the war. In July 25 million Russians were using VPNs. In other words, Russians dont only have access to propaganda television channels; they can find alternative information on the Internet.
This does not make life any easier: a whole range of websites, services and banks, from state services to Yandex cards to Kommersant and RBC sites, do not work if the VPN is turned on, phones heat up and their batteries drain at an alarming rate. But the main problem is something else.
During the six months of the war, I did not meet a single person who was more or less well-known, or high-ranking, or rich, who openly supported the war. I was told, however, that one former deputy prime minister and now head of a state corporation came to the offices of the Presidential Administration wearing a black T-shirt with a defiant "Z" on his chest. Whether this person was trolling the administration or wearing the T-shirt as a sign of eternal loyalty remains unknown.
Another source began his conversation with a statement: "The election of a retired KGB officer as president was a mistake, it should never happen again. I didnt argue the point, of course, but it would have been better if this realization had come 22 years ago. A third source insisted we talk on a balcony and stand so close that we were practically embracing. The fourth was so afraid that the Chekists would tap our conversation that he suggested we meet in a restaurant a couple of dozen kilometers from Moscow. The fifth repeated several times that "society has completely failed to thoroughly consider the implications of using Novichok against opponents." Apparently the terror that the door handle of your luxury palace or car might be smeared with a military nerve agent never leaves many of the top Russian ruling elite for a moment. That fifth source also complained bitterly that he could not use his private plane. "All planes immediately stopped getting software updates. Of course, we could ask a young man with a black briefcase to come in and hack the software. But I asked the pilot of my plane, Could there be a glitch with the system when we're in the air? Of course, he replied. We have to fly Aeroflot, although even their software was probably updated by the same young man with the same briefcase."
I asked a variety of people what percentage of the top Russian ruling class supported the war. The answers ranged from a low of 10% to a high of 30%. Hundreds if not thousands of people at the top have lost millions and billions of dollars, expensive real estate in delightful European countries and the United States because of sanctions and/or the collapse of the stock market. All they get for their loss is endless lamentations from wives and mistresses that "living in this Russia" was not part of the deal. Children studying at Western universities and boarding schools in Britain, Switzerland, and the United States were forced to return to Russia when their educational institutions refused to accept their parents' toxic money.
That said, people mentioned the names of a couple of billionaires who, despite the sanctions and huge personal losses, called for "striking" Ukraine with nuclear weapons. There is also grumbling in the middle stratum of power brokers, who have lost a lot in mutual funds and especially in cryptocurrency.
No one can predict how the political situation in Russia will develop now. Some give the regime until the spring of 2023, others predict a further intensification of repression in the coming months and are confident that the regime has enough strength to survive another ten years. They insist that the upcoming 2024 elections and the next round wont change a thing.
I'm not so sure. I'm not sure that Putin's ruling class, which is made up of dollar millionaires and billionaires and is used to making money in Russia and spending it all over the world, will agree to live and die in a cage.
But we shall see.
This article was first published in Russian in The New Times.
The views expressed in opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the position of The Moscow Times.
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Six Months of War: What Putin Wanted; What Putin Got - The Moscow Times
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