Monthly Archives: August 2022

A Pair of Supermassive Black Holes Could Be Fated to Collide Within 3 Years – ScienceAlert

Posted: August 29, 2022 at 8:22 am

The weird behavior of a galaxy around a billion light-years away suggests that it might contain one of the most highly anticipated events in modern astronomy.

Fluctuations in light from the center of the galaxy SDSS J1430+2303 look suspiciously like a pair of supermassive black holes with a combined mass of around 200 million Suns destined for an imminent collision with each other.

"Imminent" in cosmic terms can often stretch on for whole lifetimes. Fortunately in this case, astronomers predict that if the signal is indeed the result of colossal black holes they will merge within the next three years.

It may be our best shot yet to see two supermassive black holes collide but we still don't know for sure if that's what is going on at the heart of J1429+2303. Scientists advise that we continue watching the strange galaxy to see if it can be conclusively identified.

The first detection of colliding black holes back in 2015 launched a bold new era for astronomy. Since then, many more detections have been made thanks to the gravitational waves these massive events send rippling through space-time.

To date, almost all of these mergers have been binary pairs of black holes with masses comparable to individual stars. There's a very good reason for this. LIGO and Virgo, the gravitational wave instruments responsible for the detections, are designed for this mass range.

The more ponderous ripples generated by inspiralling and colliding supermassive black holes, in the range of millions to billions of times the mass of the Sun, are in a frequency range too low for our current observatories.

Still, the merger of a pair of supermassive black holes would be a freaking sweet thing to observe. Even without a detector capable of sensing low frequency gravitational waves, scientists expect to see an immense outburst of light across the spectrum.

The data packed into that outburst could tell us so much about how these events play out. We're not entirely sure how supermassive black holes get so big, but there are a few clues to suggest that one mechanism is binary mergers.

We know that galaxies have supermassive black holes in their centers, and we've observed not just pairs and groups of galaxies colliding, but supermassive black holes circling each other in mutual, decaying orbits in the centers of these post-merger galaxies. These are inferred from oscillations in the light emitted from the galactic center of these galaxies, on regular timescales that suggest an orbit.

This brings us back to J1430+2303. Earlier this year, a team of astronomers led by Ning Jiang of the University of Science and Technology of China uploaded a paper to preprint server arXiv, describing some really strange behavior. Over a period of three years, the oscillations in the galactic nucleus grew shorter and shorter, from a time period of about a year, down to just one month.

However, it's not entirely clear that what is happening at the heart of J1430+2303 is the result of a black hole binary at all, never mind one that is about to kaboom. Galactic nuclei are strange places, throwing out signals that are difficult to interpret, meaning it's possible something else may be causing the variability in the heart of J1430+2303.

To try to get to the bottom of the matter, astronomers turned to X-ray wavelengths. Using data from a range of X-ray observatories, covering a time period of 200 days, a team led by Liming Dou of Guangzhou University in China has attempted to identify high-energy signatures that we would expect to see in a close supermassive black hole binary on a decaying orbit.

They did see variations in the X-ray light emitted by the galaxy, as well as a type of emission associated with iron falling onto a black hole, which the team detected with a 99.96 percent confidence level from two different instruments. This emission can be associated with binary supermassive black holes; however, the team could not measure the "smoking gun" characteristics that would confirm a black hole binary.

Analysis of radio observations published in July were also inconclusive. So it appears we're still not 100 percent sure about what's happening with J1430+2303.

What we are able to state with confidence is that something very strange seems to be happening at the galaxy's center. Above all, it's a mystery, and a very juicy one; whether it's a supermassive black hole binary on the brink of collision or not, J1430+2303 seems to warrant closer, more detailed attention.

The paper has been accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics, and is available on arXiv.

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Indian team bags 3rd place in Astronomy Olympiad – The Indian Express

Posted: at 8:22 am

An Indian students team bagged the third rank in the 15th International Olympiad on Astronomy and Astrophysics (IOAA) held at Kutaisi International University in Georgia. In the event, which concluded on Monday, all five team members bagged medals, including two silver.

Raghav Goyal from Chandigarh, Md Sahil Akhtar from Kolkata and Mehul Borad from Hyderabad bagged gold in the event. Goyal also won a special prize for providing the best solution to the most challenging theoretical question. The silver medallists are Malay Kedia from Ghaziabad and Atharva Nilesh Mahajan from Indore.

Conducted annually, the IOAA aims to promote astronomy among school students.

With five gold medals, the Iranian team topped the medals tally followed by the guest team with four gold medals and one silver. India and Singapore are tied for the third spot. The event, which was to be held in Kyiv in Ukraine was shifted due to the ongoing Russian invasion.

The Indian teams mentors included Sarita Vig from the Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Ajit Mohan Srivastava from the Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar and two scientific observers Shriharsh Tendulkar representing the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai and Tejas Shah of Father Agnel Multipurpose School and Junior College in Navi Mumbai.

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Indian team bags 3rd place in Astronomy Olympiad - The Indian Express

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Were Irish astronomers and heres the most spectacular events coming up… – The Irish Sun

Posted: at 8:21 am

IRISH astronomers have revealed the most spectacular sky events coming up in the NEXT MONTH.

Astronomy Ireland, the worlds most popular astronomy society have outlined an action packed Autumn for budding Irish skygazers, from super rockets to star parties, here's everything that's in store.

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Despite the exciting events in store, Astronomy Ireland have outlined a variety of planets that are visible right now.

Saturn is visible to the naked eye as a bright star low in the South all evening.

Jupiter rises before 10pm and blazes in the East as the brightest star-like object all evening.

The iconic "red planet" Mars rises at 11:30pm in the East and is brighter than Saturn but not as bright as Jupiter.

The society say it is "beautifully placed" between the Pleiades and Hyades clusters.

Venus is very low in the East, however, keen early risers will see it over the next few weeks as it can only be seen at dawn.

The popular astronomy society have also highlighted some key September dates skygazers need to pencil in.

On September 14 Uranus will pass behind the Moon.

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And just a day later on September 15 the International Space Station will be visible in evening skies for 2 weeks!

September 16 will of a "spectacular" naked eye view of Mars as it sits just a stone's throw from the Moon.

In the coming weeks Astronomy Ireland have also teased even more spectacular events taking place in the coming weeks.

They said: "NASA launches it's new super-rocket to the Moon at last, leading to people on the Moon in 2025.

"Saturn and Jupiter are brilliant evening objects next to the Moon, Mars is building towards a close approach to Earth.

"There's even an eclipse from Ireland in October, and loads more events like this to keep you informed of!"

But before all that on August 27, Ireland's biggest annual star party, Star-B-Q kicks off in the beautiful Wicklow mountains.

Promoting the event, the non-profit society said: "Join us under the very dark skies of the Wicklow mountains for our annual barbecue under the stars - Star-B-Q - now Ireland's biggest annual 'star party'.

"Showcasing some of the biggest telescopes in Ireland you will view the wonders of the universe, especially Saturn and Jupiter!

"Saturn will be especially incredible.

"With three amazing public talks, trade stands, professionally catered barbecue food all included, and more, this is an event not to be missed!"

Tickets and more details of the event can be accessed here, and you can follow Astronomy Ireland's Instagram page here.

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Were Irish astronomers and heres the most spectacular events coming up... - The Irish Sun

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Bad Astronomy | Meteorites from asteroid 2008 TC3 reveal how it broke up | SYFY WIRE – Syfy

Posted: at 8:21 am

On Oct. 7, 2008, just after midnight UTC, an asteroid 4 meters across came screaming into Earths atmosphere.

It started feeling pressure from the thin air around 100 kilometers above the ground. Traveling at a downward angle of about 20 at 46,000 kilometers per hour a dozen times faster than a rifle bullet the building pressure as it rammed through ever-denser air caused the gas in front of it to be violently compressed and heat up, so much so that the asteroid heated up as well. Both the air in front and the asteroid itself started to glow by the time it was 70 km above the Earth. Seconds later, around 42 kilometers and then again at 37 km up, it partially exploded, then one second later a final pulse of energy caused the asteroid to completely disintegrate.

The total energy released was equivalent to over a thousand tons of TNT exploding, much of that in the form of a debris cloud expanding away. It contained dust and rocks, the remains of the original 80 tons of material making up the asteroid. This then rained meteorites down onto the ground, a region of the Sudans Nubian Desert in Africa, with meteorites ranging in size from specks of dust to ones that weighed several hundred grams.

The asteroid, called 2008 TC3, had been discovered just 19 hours previously in images taken by the Catalina Sky Survey, which sweeps the sky looking for dangerous near-Earth asteroids. An alert was sent out, more observations taken, and it quickly became clear this rock was going to hit Earth: The very first time one was ever seen before impact. Over 900 observations were made in that time by professional and amateur astronomers alike, which gave a very precise trajectory for TC3, including where it would impact.

In December a search began for meteorites, and within days several were found. Spread out over an area 30 kilometers long and about 7 wide, 600 meteorites were eventually found totaling about 11 kilograms.

Then things got weird. The scientists made very careful measurements of which meteorites were found where, and a pattern emerged: Following the trajectory of the asteroid downrange, the pieces that fell the farthest uprange were smaller, while pieces that made it farther downrange were bigger. Not only that, the uprange small pieces from 1 to 50 grams were confined to a narrow path only a kilometer or so wide, but the downrange larger rocks 100 to 400 grams were dispersed farther, some found several kilometers away from the ground path of the incoming asteroid. The pattern looks like a trumpet bell, narrow at one end and wider the farther along you go.

Why?

New research using sophisticated computer modeling of how an asteroid breaks up as it slams into Earths air has provided an answer, and it has to do with the shape of the asteroid and the details of what happens as the huge forces generated by its rapid motion caused it to break up [link to paper].

As the asteroid approached Earth, observations indicated it brightened and dimmed on a regular cycle, indicating it was highly elongated like a Tic Tac or a wide canoe, and rotating very rapidly, once every 49 seconds. As it entered the Earths atmosphere it settled into a single orientation, with its longest dimension ramming through the air (as opposed to narrow end-on like an arrow).

Compressing air that hard heats it up, which in turn heats up the rock on the side facing into the direction of travel. Material started to melt and blow back,a process called ablation. But the asteroid was moving so rapidly it was punching a hole in the air, with a near-vacuum behind it. The small bits of ablated material fell into this vacuum wake, and the high pressure from the shock wave around the main mass of the asteroid kept them there. Still hot, many of the pieces continued to vaporize and shrink, creating smaller particles that were essentially dust.

At the same time the wave of pressure and heating moved through the solid body of the asteroid, dissolving it from front to back. Within seconds it was so eroded it didnt have enough structural strength to withstand the onslaught, and it collapsed. At this point all that was left was material along the backside of the asteroid, which crumbled into large pieces.

The wake vacuum collapsed as well since the asteroid was now gone. The material stuck there was no longer protected and was suddenly exposed to the huge velocity of air moving past it. The small pieces slowed fiercely, eventually falling to the ground not far from the spot over which the final disintegration occurred.

But bigger pieces were more massive and retained their velocity for longer, so they fell farther downrange. That explains why different sizes were found at different locations downrange. But why did the small pieces fall along a narrow path and the big ones were more spread out?

The small ones stayed behind the asteroid for the most part in the wake vacuum, so they fell along that same direction. But when the final collapse occurred all the big pieces suddenly found themselves in open air, and each generated its own strong shock wave of air moving around them. Pieces near each other would feel a violent push away from each other as their individual shock waves interacted, a sideways shove perpendicular to the direction of travel. This gave them some velocity to the side, so when they eventually hit the ground farther downrange they were more spread out.

Most of the meteorites found in this case were therefore from the backside of the asteroid; the material from the front was mostly in the form of dust that trailed behind it to create the train of vaporized material or expanded outward in dust clouds as the asteroid disintegrated.

This may not be the case for every incoming space rock, but this result does help planetary scientists understand the asteroid 2008 TC3 better. For example, the larger rocks that fell to the right of the downward path probably came from the right side of the asteroid, and ones to the left from the asteroids left side. Examining the meteorites showed that some materials were well mixed throughout the asteroid, with no pockets of material preferentially in one place. That gives hints about the history of the asteroid.

The physics of hypervelocity impacts is extremely complex and difficult to model. The success of this model to mimic what happened to 2008 TC3 as it broke apart shows that its possible to learn quite a bit more about these rocks as they come in, and understand better the processes that almost but not necessarily completely destroy them. That in turn means we can better understand the effect they have on the air and ground as they fall. Thats important to know better what kind of damage they can do. Rocks like TC3, a few meters across, hit us a few times a year, and bigger ones are commensurately more rare. But they can do considerable damage just ask the dinosaurs, except you cant for obvious reasons so understanding why and how can have real-world implications for us living at the bottom of Earths ocean of protective air.

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Bad Astronomy | Meteorites from asteroid 2008 TC3 reveal how it broke up | SYFY WIRE - Syfy

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Top after-hours movers: Affirm, Gap, Workday and more – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 8:20 am

Top trending after-hours tickers on Yahoo Finance:

Affirm (AFRM): Shares dropped more than 14% after its first quarter and full-year 2023 revenue guidance missed estimates. Affirm sees first-quarter revenue of $345 to $365 million and full-year revenue of $1.63 billion to $1.73 billion. Affirm CFO Michael Linford wrote in the earnings release, In light of the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, we are approaching our next fiscal year prudently while maintaining our focus on driving responsible growth. Affirm shares have dropped 69% since the start of the year.

Ulta (ULTA): Shares jumped after the beauty retailer posted earnings that beat the streets estimates and issued strong full-year guidance. Ulta posted comparable sales of 14.4% for the quarter and sees comparable sales growth of 9.5% to 10.5%, up from its previous forecast of 6% to 8%. Executives on the earnings call noted Ulta shoppers are not trading down on price and saw sales rebound following a modest slowdown in late June, early July.

Gap (GPS): Gap reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that topped estimates and noted improving sales trends in July and early August. But comparable sales missed estimates for the second quarter with total sales falling -10%, including a -15% drop in sales at its Old Navy brand. Morningstar Equity Analyst David Swartz told Yahoo Finance that Gaps biggest issue right now is Old Navy and that if Gap cant fix Old Navy, then the whole business is in trouble.

Workday (WDAY): Shares jumped after the company beat on both the top and bottom lines, posting adjusted earnings of $0.83 a share on $1.54 billion in revenue. Workday raised its adjusted operating margin outlook for the third quarter while maintaining its full-year subscription revenue guidance. Workday CEO Barbara Larson noted Our updated outlook reflects the momentum in our business and the mission-critical nature of our solutions, while also balancing the current macro environment.

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Dell (DELL): Shares fell after hours after Dell missed adjusted Ebitda target for the second quarter and consumer revenue fell 9% from a year ago, totaling $3.3 billion. Dell Technologies Vice Chairman Jeff Clarke wrote in the earnings release,"We continued to execute well in an increasingly challenging environment with record second quarter revenue of $26.4 billion, up 9%... We also advanced our long-term strategy growing the core while innovating for our customers and enabling their opportunities in the data era." The stock is off -14.7% since the start of the year.

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Top after-hours movers: Affirm, Gap, Workday and more - Yahoo Finance

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Nebraska-Northwestern game in Ireland featured free beer and food when credit card machines went down – Yahoo Sports

Posted: at 8:20 am

Beer and other concessions were free at Aviva Stadium at the Northwestern-Nebraska game in Dublin, Ireland, because all the credit card machines were down. And because the venue doesn't accept cash and the machines can't connect to Wi-Fi, workers at the game gave away as much as they could.

How's this for some Irish hospitality?

The Omaha World-Herald, which was covering the event on-site, wrote that people were given "as many as he or she could carry in a cardboard drink carrier. One man carried seven. Most tried to get four." Fans grabbed cups of fries and hot dogs as well.

"Nothing is free in Ireland but this is!' one fan, Stephen Cleary, told the World-Herald.

One video from the game showed a wild scene of fans trying to acquire as much free stuff as possible:

Meanwhile, both teams are playing well on the field. The Wildcats led the Cornhuskers 17-14 at the half. Ryan Hilinski threw for 214 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the first half for Northwestern, while Casey Thompson has 229 passing yards, one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown for Nebraska.

The Nebraska-Northwestern game featured free beer and food. (Photo by Oisin Keniry/Getty Images)

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Nebraska-Northwestern game in Ireland featured free beer and food when credit card machines went down - Yahoo Sports

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TikTok reveals brilliant hack for applying to jobs without using LinkedIn: This is how you search – Yahoo Sports

Posted: at 8:20 am

A TikTok user is drawing praise with his trick for finding jobs through some simple Google search methods.

The hack comes courtesy of a TikToker named Tem (@tem.bv). In a now-viral post, he showed how to efficiently search for jobs without using middleman sites like LinkedIn or Indeed.

Tems video was a direct response to another user, named @m3ntallyillvirg0, who specifically asked for help finding jobs beyond the seemingly endless listings on LinkedIn.

Should you buy a home right now? What you need to know about getting a mortgage now that rates are increasing

When I used to look for jobs, this is one thing I did, Tem says in his clip. I would actually target the application website.

The TikToker goes on to show how to customize a Google search for listings on the actual sites that host job applications, such as Greenhouse and Lever.

The tip comes amid a recent flood of career advice on the app. In one video, a former HR worker shared the one question he always asks at the end of a job interview. In another, a TikToker revealed a major manager red flag, which could be a sign of a boss who isnt looking out for their employees.

As Tem shows in hiss clip, you can search for listings on a specific site by going to Google and typing, site:(website name). You can check multiple sites at once by adding a straight line (|) symbol between searches.

Tem then adds the job titles hes looking for. To do that, place the words you want to search in parenthesis, separated by a straight line. Tems example looks like this: (engineer | developer).

Watch this bland Brooklyn bedroom become a mid-century modern escape in just one day:

That way, Tem will get only job listings with those exact words in the post. And again, his searches will take him only to the sites that host the job listings themselves.

Lastly, Tem adds and removes keywords to his search. He places the words he wants to include in quotation marks and places the words he wants to exclude between two dashes.

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TikTokers were mystified by Tems search skills. Many called the hack brilliant.

This is how you search, one user wrote.

Oh great, so Ive been using google like a toddler for my whole life, another added.

Tell me why I need a degree in job searching just to apply for jobs, another joked.

Watch this tiny bedroom get an organization overhaul in just one day:

The post TikTok reveals brilliant hack for applying for jobs without using LinkedIn appeared first on In The Know.

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TikTok reveals brilliant hack for applying to jobs without using LinkedIn: This is how you search - Yahoo Sports

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Hackers have a new tool that downloads Gmail, Yahoo, Outlook inboxes – TechRadar

Posted: at 8:20 am

Iranian state-sponsored hackers have built a new tool capable of downloading Gmail, Yahoo, and Outlook inboxes, and are using it against unknown high-profile targets.

This is according to a new report from Googles Threat Analysis Group (TAG), which managed to obtain a version of the tool and perform an analysis to see just how dangerous it is.

As per the report, the tool in question is called HYPERSCAPE, and was built back in 2020 by the government-backed group known as Charming Kitten.

According to Google, the tool works on the attackers endpoint, which means victims dont have to be tricked into downloading any malware. They do, however, need to either have their account credentials compromised or session cookies stolen, as the attacker first needs to log into their account.

Once that step is achieved, the tool will trick the email service into thinking its being accessed via an outdated browser, and will switch to the basic HTML view.

After that, it will change the inboxs language to English, start opening emails one by one, and download them into the .eml format. Email messages that were marked as unread before the attack will be marked as unread afterward as well. Once that stage is done, it will delete any warning emails, revert the language back to its original state and disappear.

Apparently, the tool has so far been used against no more than two dozen accounts, all located in Iran. Google says it notified all of them via its Government Backed Attacker Warnings. The tool was written in .NET for Windows PCs, TAG added, saying it tested it with Gmail, although functionality may differ for Yahoo! and Microsoft accounts".

Earlier versions of HYPERSCAPE also allowed threat actors to request data from Google Takeout, a feature allowing users to export their data to a downloadable archive file. The feature doesnt seem to be available in the latest version, however.

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Hackers have a new tool that downloads Gmail, Yahoo, Outlook inboxes - TechRadar

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Fantasy Football Tight End Fades: Is 2022 the year Travis Kelce finally falls off? – Yahoo Sports

Posted: at 8:20 am

The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew is identifying the specific players at each position they're fading this draft season. Finally, the tight end picks from Andy, Matt, Scott and Dalton.

Andy Behrens: A quick review of the fantasy portfolio reveals that I've already drafted literally every tight end in the Yahoo consensus top-12 in at least one league. This would suggest that A) I might very well have signed up for too many leagues and B) I don't have any hot takes at this spot, because I'm not fading any big names (or medium-sized names).

[Set, hut, hike! Create or join a fantasy football league now!]

David Njoku is a semi-popular sleeper who hasn't made his way to any of my rosters, however, so let's call him my fade. He's entering his sixth pro season and still hasn't produced a truly useful fantasy campaign, plus he's about to spend a bunch of weeks working with Jacoby Brissett. This is not exactly a must-draft setup.

Matt Harmon: Its not as if you need to avoid Zach Ertz or you can kiss your fantasy season goodbye before it even starts, I just dont see the ceiling case with him. If you miss out on the consensus top-nine tight ends this year, you shouldnt bother spending serious draft capital to acquire a tight end. Theres not much of a gap between TE10 or 11 (Njoku and Ertz) and the guys I have ranked 12 to 16. Youre better off continuing to pluck receivers and running backs who could change your season, as its unlikely a tight end in the Ertz range is going to do so. Hes a fine middling floor pick, but thats about all.

Scott Pianowski: Mike Gesicki is a square peg in a round Miami hole, a route-first tight end who doesn't fit as a blocker. The new coaching staff wants tight ends who move bodies around, more traditional fits at the position. Sure, no one is playing fantasy football in points-per-block league, but you want your tight end on the field as much as possible, and that could be a Gesicki problem in 2022.

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Mike Gesicki has flashed before, but his fantasy value is taking a hit in 2022. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

He's also looking at a lower target share, with Jaylen Waddle emerging and Tyreek Hill new in town. There are a handful of interesting tight-end draft targets outside the top 10, but Gesicki doesn't belong on that list.

Dalton Del Don: Travis Kelce will soon be 33 years old and is clearly in the decline phase of his career yet is being drafted as a top-20 pick. Kelces yards per route run have decreased nearly 20 percent over the last three seasons with Tyreek Hill off the field, and Kansas City added JuJu Smith-Schuster to play the slot during the offseason. Kelce is being drafted higher than Mark Andrews, whos six years younger and saw 15 end-zone targets last season compared to only four for Kelce. Make it make sense!

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Inflation Hedge or Not, Bitcoin’s True Value Is Separation of Money and State – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 8:20 am

For the first week in a while, the non-crypto world was louder than the crypto world.

Everyone is talking about:

Meanwhile, no one is talking about if bitcoin (BTC) is or isnt an inflation hedge. Thankfully (unthankfully?) each of the things everyone is talking about is (at least loosely) tied to inflation in some way. So Ill do it. Ill write about if bitcoin is or isnt an inflation hedge.

Because everything is about inflation and everything is about bitcoin (even things that arent about bitcoin). Stochastic means random, by the way.

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First off, the U.S. government isnt paying off everyone's student loans. What the Biden administration announced was that people who both hold federal government student loans and earn less than $125,000 a year will have either $10,000 or $20,000 of their student loan balance forgiven. There are nitty-gritty details (which you can get by listening to this NASFAA podcast), but the main question we want to answer is if this is inflationary or not.

Heres an argument that it will be: Canceling student loan debt will put money in the pockets of Americans and those Americans will use that money to buy more immediately. The immediate consumption bump will meaningfully contribute to more inflation.

Heres an argument that it will not be: Canceling student loan debt will leave money in the pockets of Americans and those Americans will use that money to consume more gradually over the course of their lives. The gradual consumption bump wont meaningfully contribute to more inflation.

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I very much like the argument that canceling student debt wont be immediately inflationary. Yes, the coronavirus pandemic stimulus checks were, but there is an important psychological difference between handing someone a $3,200 check and handing them an official letter saying they owe $10,000 less on an outstanding loan.

No, probably not. Probably the opposite. While the White House introduced a program that isnt obviously inflationary on the surface, the Federal Reserve chair is still digging deep for his Volcker (without going full Volcker) moment. When Powell faced central bankers, economists and the American people Friday morning with his prepared remarks in Jackson, Wyoming, he said that history cautions against prematurely loosening policy, which basically means, Were going to stay the course because if we change course again, youre really not going to believe us anymore.

Powell (and the Fed) is also digging deep for credibility. CoinDesks Adam B. Levine, host of the Markets Daily podcast, made one of the best arguments for that in last weeks episode where he said:

... [H]istory suggests that the [Feds] decision [on interest rates] will remain far below the [necessary] interest rate which is required to deal with inflation. For much of the 1970s and 1980s, the last time we saw comparable price inflation, the rate that the Fed set was somewhere between 8% [and] 20%, many times higher than what the Fed is suggesting now. So while central banks and markets will play games with each other, it may all be for show to look serious about the problem when the proposed solution doesnt really have a chance to solve anything.

What Adam Levine is using to make that assertion is the Taylor rule, a rule of thumb used by central banks to set interest rates at a level that will effectively combat inflation. By his estimation, the Taylor rule suggests that rates need to be >9% to even begin to deal with the behavioral changes long-term rising inflation leads to. I tend to agree with Levine and dont think that the markets believe policymakers anymore.

Powell is stuck between a rock and a hard place (at least hes stuck between some really nice looking rocks in Jackson Hole).

Pozsar makes it clear in the aforementioned research note that he thinks so. I think the note is worth reading in full, but here is a summary in case you dont read it:

Supply is outpacing demand because we went from a world where a) cheap immigrant labor in the U.S., b) cheap goods from China and c) cheap Russian gas propped up low inflation to a world where a) nativist immigration policies drove wage pressures in the U.S., b) Chinas zero-COVID-19 policy hurt the flow of cheap goods and c) a Russian war in Ukraine has led to skyrocketing gas prices in Europe prop up high inflation.

Heres the punctuating quote:

Welcome to the war economy

where heads of state matter more than heads of central banks.

OK we didnt solve inflation last week, so now onto cryptos preeminent inflation hedge: bitcoin. With inflationary forces still out there, investors are thinking about how best to protect themselves. Is bitcoin a way to do that?

Im not sure. From a market perspective, no, not at all. In recent memory, bitcoin has been correlated with stocks. Stocks arent supposed to be inflation hedges; less-risky things like gold and commodities are. So bitcoins price following (or leading) stocks makes bitcoin not really appear like an inflation hedge.

There are two threads worth following here.

First, maybe inflation isnt about the price of goods increasing, its about currency debasement. Some variation of this chart is pretty popular in bitcoin circles:

Global M2 and bitcoins price (@mrblonde_macro)

As Global M2 the amount of money in circulation changes year over year, it appears that bitcoins market value follows. In short, as economies introduce money into circulation, bitcoins price goes up because the additional money in circulation dilutes the rest of the existing money in circulation. So this supports the idea that bitcoin is a hedge against currency debasement (a fancy way to describe the dilution of money in circulation).

Im not sure the data strongly supports this idea. Sure, theres a visual relationship in the previous chart, but the rolling 30-month correlation coefficient between U.S. M2 and bitcoins value moves from negative to slightly positive (see the two following charts). Statistically, this doesnt really tell you anything. Maybe the move is due to bitcoin maturing over time as it approaches its final resting place as an inflation hedge? I know the U.S. doesnt stand in for the entire world economy, but still.

Year-over-year change of U.S. M2 and bitcoin market capitalization (FRED, TradingView)

30-month rolling correlation between M2 and Bitcoin (FRED, TradingView)

Second, and more concretely, if you agree that we are in a war economy where heads of state matter more than heads of central banks, bitcoin is probably investable simply because it is separate from the heads of state. Im not saying bitcoins price is immune to the acts of heads of state, but I am saying that bitcoin isnt issued by any country and that the broader network a) doesnt need any particular country and b) is resilient enough to buck China banning it.

So, in the event that bitcoin doesnt behave as an inflation hedge, there might be something to be said for it acting as a way to bet on the separation of money and state.

More:

Inflation Hedge or Not, Bitcoin's True Value Is Separation of Money and State - Yahoo Finance

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