Monthly Archives: August 2022

Mori-Owned Wine Company Committed to Sustainability Produces Premium Wines of Outstanding Quality

Marlborough, New Zealand, August 30, 2022Kono, a Mori-owned wine company in the Awatere Valley of New Zealand, reports an outstanding 2022 harvest despite early environmental challenges during the growing season. As demand for New Zealand wines skyrocket and summer sales opportunities abound, the success of this years vintage is paramount. Although February was cooler and wetter than average in the Awatere Valley, ideal weather over the following months created excellent conditions for a slow ripening season. Kono escaped major disease pressure and produced record-breaking yields.

While Awatere can often be a challenging environment for grape growing, our hardworking and detail-oriented vineyard team produced excellent quality and perfectly ripened grapes, says chief winemaker Bruce Taylor. The 2022 Kono Sauvignon Blanc is on its way to the States as we speak, ready to fill the demand for New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc. 2022 wines from our Tohu Whenua Matua vineyard are maturing in the winery now, and I think they will be the ones to watch in the coming year or so.

Despite unpredictable growing seasons in the Awatere Valley, every year Kono remains committed to sustainable winegrowing and winemaking. Konos winery, which produces both Tohu and Kono Wines, is accredited by Sustainable Winegrowing New Zealand (SWNZ), as are the companys vineyards. SWNZ is managed by New Zealand Winegrowers, the national wine industry body developed to provide a best-practice model for environmental sustainability.

During the harvest, we strive to work in ways that are gentle on the environment without compromising quality and integrity, and we adhere to the strictest of standards, comments Anthony Walsh, vineyard manager at Tohu Wines. We stick to a 500-year plan because we want our childrens children to have the same resources that we did.

New this year, Kono is working hand-in-hand with ToitEnvirocare, which provides science-based tools, action plans, and evidence of progress in sustainability through carbon emissions management. Kono will receive itsToit carbonreduce certification by the end of this year, effectively managing and reducing its carbon impacts.

Since its establishment in 1998 as New Zealands first Mori-owned wine company, Kono has become known for its premium wines produced from a range of grape varieties. Kono has received numerous accolades for its wines, including its Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay, Riesling, Pinot Noir, and Mthode Traditionnelle Sparkling Wine. Most recently, the 2021 Tohu Awatere Valley Pinot Gris and 2021 Tohu Awatere Valley Sauvignon Blanc were each awarded 97 points at the Decanter World Wine Awards, both earning Platinum medals. According to Sarah Jane Evans MW, co-chair of the Decanter World Wine Awards, a Platinum medal indicates that the wine is on a stratospheric level.

About Kono

Kono is a Mori-owned, top 100 New Zealand food and drinks company employing over 400 staff, farming over 530 hectares of land and sea, and exporting to over 40 countries. Brands include Tohu Wines, Kono Wines, Hop Federation, TutCider, Kono mussels, and Annies fruit snacks. Kono also grows apples, pears, kiwifruit, and hops.Learn more about Kono atkono.co.nz.

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New Zealand's Kono and Tohu Wines Report Record-Breaking Harvest in 2022 - wineindustryadvisor.com

The key message of this article is that dairy is of fundamental importance to the future of Aotearoa New Zealand. However, the journey to get there is not straight forward and it will be controversial.

First, I set out the reasons why dairy is so important, and hence the need to face-up to the challenges that lie ahead. This then leads towards necessary actions to address the challenges.

It is no accident that New Zealands most important export industry is dairy, comprising some 30 percent of the export value of goods that leave New Zealands shores. Add in sheep, beef, timber, fish, kiwifruit and wine, and New Zealands primary industries contribute a little over 80 percent of the export earnings derived from merchandise goods.

The remaining exports are led by aluminium and some machinery. However, with these and other manufactured goods, the net contribution is typically much less than the export earnings, given the imports that are required to feed into the manufacture of these exports.

There are also non-merchandise invisible exports. These are largely tourism and international education of foreigners who come to New Zealand.

Alas, even in the good times these invisible inflows are more than balanced by the invisible outflows of foreign currency. These invisible outflows include Kiwis spending money on their own overseas tourism, plus interest paid to foreign lenders, plus profits to the overseas-owned businesses operating in New Zealand, with banks and insurance institutions being the standouts.

So, the bottom line when it comes to imports such as pharmaceuticals, computers, vehicles, machinery and fuel, plus surprisingly high quantities of imported food of types we do not grow, is that physical imports need to be balanced by physical exports.

The only alternative to this balance is to keep importing capital from overseas. New Zealand has become very good at this. But there has to be a day of reckoning.

Accordingly, the inevitable conclusion is that New Zealands future depends critically on its export industries.

It is no accident that New Zealand is so dependent on its primary industries for these exports. This follows naturally from being a small country isolated from much of the world. Very simply, New Zealand will never have the scale required to build a comparative advantage for large-scale manufacturing. Also, although some would like to pretend otherwise, New Zealand education levels provide minimal advantages and significant disadvantages when comparisons are made to that bigger world.

As for the specific primary industries, the development path that New Zealand has followed is also no accident. For example, the temperate maritime climate, the topography, and the low inherent fertility of nearly all New Zealands soils, all lead inevitably to pastoralism rather than large-scale cropping.

A quick look at export statistics confirms that exports of staple crops such as wheat, barley, oats and maize are insignificant. Major crops such as rice and soy are not even grown at all in New Zealand. This is not going to change.

As for horticulture, kiwifruit is clearly the stand out but there are other successes such as apples and some sub-tropical fruit. But if anyone thinks that horticulture can save New Zealands export economy, they lack understanding of the issues.

The major non-horticultural crops that New Zealand does export are small seeds, with this mainly linked to out-of-season production on behalf of overseas plant breeders. This trade is also at close to peak, given the need for isolation between cross-fertile cultivars.

The long-term perspective of Treasury economists, echoed by the Climate Change Commission, is that resources allocated to dairy and pastoralism can over time be re-allocated to other industries. However, the key resources that underpin dairying are the sunlight and rain that falls on the New Zealand countryside. How will those resources be allocated given the fundamental unsuitability of most of this land to non-pastoral activities?

I have yet to hear an answer to that question. I suspect this reflects the lack of biological understandings held by quantitative desk economists.

The other argument I hear from people who consider themselves economically literate is that not only dairy but also the overall agriculture sector is unimportant because it comprises such a small part of GDP. As I have pointed out many times, the GDP of agriculture captures only a small proportion of the on-farm value-add and none of the off-farm added value. Also, much of the on-farm contribution, including shearers and all other contractors, is allocated to the service sector. It is a crazy anomaly bound up in distant history when farmers did everything on-farm themselves.

I also read regularly that dairy consumption globally is supposedly in decline. But this is false news. Fresh milk consumption is in global decline, but overall dairy consumption, led by cheese, continues to increase.

I also read that New Zealands dairy will in future supposedly face trade barriers. However, I only hear that from people who are well-versed in political lobbying but are not out there in the Asian markets which New Zealand exports to.

The overall trend in dairy and other food prices, albeit with inevitable volatility, has been upwards for the last two decades, with populations increasing and producers struggling to meet the increasing demand. There is no evidence that this will change. Growing more food is now a huge global challenge, largely disguised until recently by massive historical productivity gains in both plant and animal agriculture combined with huge fossil fuel inputs.

So, given the fundamental importance of dairy, there is a need to face-up to the environmental and other challenges that dairy faces, going forward. If New Zealand walks away from its pastoral industries, it is inevitable the whole economy will decline as imports have to be reined in.

A starting point is to address vociferous calls that dairy somehow threatens planetary survival.

There is no point in denying that methane and nitrous oxide, both fundamental by-products from dairy farming, are greenhouse gasses. These emissions have been with us since ruminant animals first evolved some millions of years ago. The issue is complex because methane is a short lived but powerful greenhouse gas, whereas carbon dioxide has less power but over a much longer atmospheric life.

The focus on methane is driven by short term temperature targets rather than long-term planetary sustainability. Holding informed debates on that issue is challenging.

I am reasonably relaxed about the current legislated 2030 methane target of 10 percent reduction from 2017 levels. This is a combined target for all biogenic methane and some, perhaps most, will come from the current transformation of sheep and beef land being converted to forestry. However, the 2050 target of between 24% and 47% methane reduction across all ruminant species is of a very different order. Quite simply, there are no technologies currently available to achieve this without a huge reduction in all of dairy, sheep and beef.

The second challenge facing dairy is the impact of dairy on water quality. Once again, there is no doubt that dairy can have a big impact on water quality, but sorting out truth from fiction is challenging. A key fact is that most of the nitrogen-leaching comes from urine deposited on paddocks in the second half of autumn and in winter.

I am closely associated with the development of composting-shelter farming systems where cows and in some cases beef animals are off-pasture during the winter, and are also bedded in these shelters at night time in autumn. This greatly reduces the leaching.

One of the current ironies is that development of these farming systems, which can also be super friendly for animals, are being led by innovative farmers who are learning through trial and error. It is time for the formal research and development (R&D) system to catch up.

There are also health challenges with some dairy products. I have for the last 15 years been closely associated with researching and communicating the health issues associated with A1 beta casein and the need to convert to A2. Right now, the A2 issue seems to have gone quiet in New Zealand but elsewhere things are steadily moving ahead. Given the lack of commitment in New Zealand within the mainstream dairy industry, most of my own A2 work is now focused offshore.

Each of these challenges to the dairy industry deserves multiple articles of its own. All of them are big issues, with progress inhibited by a mix of misinformation and defensive lethargy.

There are tough times ahead for most New Zealanders, and it is not just dairy farmers. There is an old saying that one reaps what one sows.

*Keith Woodford was Professor of Farm Management and Agribusiness at Lincoln University for 15 years through to 2015. He is now Principal Consultant at AgriFood Systems Ltd. You can contact him directly here.

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Dairy is fundamental to New Zealand's future | interest.co.nz - Interest.co.nz

Wednesday, 31 August 2022, 12:15 pmPress Release: Golf New Zealand

On the 30th anniversary of New Zealands EisenhowerTrophy triumph, the New Zealand side has arrived in France,ready to replicate our 1992 World Amateur Teams Championship(WATC) success.

Kazuma Kobori (Rangiora), James Hydes(Gulf Harbour), and Sam Jones (Manaia) have only been toldabout New Zealands successful Eisenhower campaign from 30years ago, as none of them was born before 1992. NewZealands best result since the three nationalrepresentatives have been alive is fourth in2018.

Like the womens Espirito Santo Trophy, themen will play across Le Golf National and Golf deSaint-Nom-La-Brteche in Paris. Jones will lead the teamoff at 6pm tonight.

Kobori is the highest ranked NewZealander, currently ranked 67th in the World Amateur GolfRankings. The 19-year-old has been as high as 42nd andautomatically made the US Amateur field for being inside theworlds top 50. He narrowly missed out on the match playby a shot.

The 2019 New Zealand PGA champion has beenone of New Zealands top amateurs for a couple of years.Last year, he won the New Zealand Stroke Play Championshipat Paraparaumu Beach and more recently became a JennianHomes Charles Tour winner at the Autex Muriwai Open in Aprilthis year.

The aspiring professional says its beena goal of his to make this New Zealand team and is excitedto fly the New Zealand flag on one of amateur golfsbiggest stages.

Its a fantastic opportunity totest my game, even more so as the event is held across twogreat golf courses.

Its a privilege to play forNew Zealand. It gives me an indication that I am on theright track, and I hope to achieve similar success to our1992 team and others that have played beforeme.

The main goal is to win. Thatsit.

Hydes has also had a couple of years toremember.

Making the team has been a goal of23-year-olds for a long time. Victories at the 2020 NewZealand Amateur, 2020 Autex Muriwai Open, 2021 Welsh OpenStroke Play, and a runner-up at the 2022 Australian MensAmateur helped him play his way into the three-manside.

The aspiring DP World Tour player is lookingforward to testing himself on a couple of Europes finestgolf courses.

Its been one of my goals for along time. Its really exciting to wear the fern andrepresent my country, its a special feeling and issomething Ill forever be proud of.

I reallythink we can win. Weve got a great team and if its ourweek, we can do it.

I cant wait to play Le GolfNational. Being able to play a Ryder Cup course will beawesome. Im also excited to tee it up alongside some ofthe worlds best amateurs.

The final team memberJones is also elated to make the national side.

The2019 New Zealand Amateur and North Island Stroke Playchampion has played well in 2022, earning his place in theteam after winning the New Zealand Stroke Play and threedistrict titles.

He has a simple goal thisweek.

I want to win.

Michael Campbell,Phil Tataurangi, Stephen Scahill, and Grant Moorhead beatthe US by three 30-years-ago.

New Zealand gets their2022 Eisenhower Trophy campaign underway tonight, with SamJones teeing off at 6, James Hydes at 6.11, and KazumaKobori at 6.22pm NZT.

Team leaderboard: https://www.igfgolf.org/watc/watc-2022-france/eisenhower-team-leaderboard

Individualleaderboard: https://www.igfgolf.org/watc/watc-2022-france/eisenhower-individual-leaderboard

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New Zealand Inspired At World Amateur Teams Championship | Scoop News - Scoop

There were lots of reasons for this, of course - boiling it down to a single factor is impossible.

But one of the big ones was our high levels of immigration: between 2010 and 2017, Aotearoa had a net influx of about 50,000 people every year.

These arrivals helped fill skills shortages, but critics say a failure to scale up infrastructure to meet the needs of a growing population contributed to strain on the housing market and health system.

In addition, many low-skilled migrants were taken advantage of by unscrupulous employers.

During the 2017 election campaign, Labour promised something of an immigration reset: slicing the number of migrants coming in by 20,000 to 30,000 people a year to relieve the pressure on infrastructure. Bringing in a greater proportion of high-skilled workers in that lot would also develop a more high-value, high-wage economy.

Once elected, the party didn't have to do much to hit that target - Covid-19's arrival took care of it.

But now, five years on from getting into government, Labour is putting its immigration rebalancing into action.

But what does it mean for the economy?

"At a simple level, more people in an economy means more activity, more growth, more GDP," NZ Herald business editor-at-large Liam Dann says.

"The flipside is that GDP is a nice number to have growing, but per capita GDP is our personal wealth, and that didn't grow as much [in the first half of the 2010s].

"Also, if you've got a lot more people coming into the economy, you need to be investing in infrastructure - building more houses, your roads are getting filled up - and so that has to happen, and I guess you could make the case that it didn't happen fast enough."

Dann says during the early-to-mid-2010s, the country was relieved to be tracking in a positive economic direction, and perhaps ignored some of the warning signs that infrastructure and housing supply might not be coping with the relatively sudden influx of people until it was too late.

See more here:

Immigration: With industries screaming out for workers, are New Zealand's immigration settings right? - Newshub

It might not be possible to bring homethe body of a New Zealand soldierwho was killed fighting in Ukraine,Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) last week confirmed Corporal Dominic Abelen, 28, was killed in Ukraine while on leave from the force without pay.

The NZDF said it was supporting consular officials around possible options for formal identification and repatriation, butnoted "the very difficult circumstances of doing so in a conflict zone".

In a press conference on Monday afternoon, Ms Ardern saidit was still difficult to know with certainty the information around Corporal Abelen's location and circumstances.

She could not provide a time frame for bringing his body home.

"That is not something that we are able to establish, nor can we be certain that will be possible," Ms Ardern said.

His leaverequest did not include plans to travel to Ukraine.

No soldiers had been approved by the NZDF to enter Ukraineand it was unaware how many soldiers may have travelled there on leave without pay.

Ms Ardern said there would be an intervention for anyNew Zealanders including soldiers who flagged intentions to travel to Ukraine.

Corporal Abelen's father Bryce Abelen said his son had not told the family of his plans to travel to the war-torn country.

"He also knew the risks of going there but still went to fight for them," he said in a statement.

"That is Dominic, always thinking of helping others."

Corporal Abelen's family said they understood his decision and fully supported it.

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New Zealand soldier who died in Ukraine may never be repatriated, Jacinda Ardern says - ABC News

New Zealands central bank has hiked interest rates earlier than other developed nations Photo: jon lyall / Shutterstock

On 17 August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked its benchmark interest rate to 3% as it struggled to contain soaring inflation. Rising house prices and acute labour shortages have pushed annual inflation in Q3 2022 to a 32-year high.

With labour shortages adding pressure to inflation, what is the interest rate forecast in New Zealand for the next five years?

New Zealand has been leading the global monetary tightening cycle by rising rates earlier than other developed nations. We examine the countrys interest rate history and economic indicators to see whether New Zealand will retain its lead in spearheading monetary contraction.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand(RBNZ)is the central bank of New Zealand. It was founded on 1 April 1934 through the enactment of the Reserve Bank Act.

In the early days, the bank was partly privately owned, with its main role restricted to maintaining exchange rate stability. In 1935, a newly elected Labour government nationalised the bank and authorised it to underwrite loans.

The banks functions expanded over the years in line with the Acts amendments. Significant reform took place in 1964, when the bank was tasked with using monetary policy to promote growth, employment and other economic goals.

By 2009, the RBNZ had a complete set of policy tools at its disposal. These included carrying out monetary policy, supervising the financial system, conducting financial market operations, providing clearing and settlement services, managing and monitoring the liquidity in the banking system, andissuing money to the general public.

The banks Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) formulates policy to achieve price stability over the medium term and support maximum sustainable employment.

In 1999, the Bank introduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) as its main tool to keep inflation within its average target of between 1% and 3%. It works to keep average inflation near the 2% target midpoint.

The MPC meets seven times a year to discuss and modify the OCR and broader monetary policy. The body also meets to make arbitrary changes to the OCR in response to unforeseen developments.

According to the bank, these meetings have taken place twice. The first came after the World Trade Centre attacks in New York on 11 September 2001. The second followed the Covid-19 crisis in 2020.

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According to data on the New Zealand interest rate history, the bank's highest OCR since the key rate was established in 1999 was 8.25 percent in July 2007. That was during the global financial crisis 2007-2008 brought on by the US housing bubble.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealands interest rate was kept at 8.25% for about a year, from July 2007 to June 2008.

The lowest OCR rate that the MPC had set was 0.25% during the Covid-19 crisis in 2020. In March 2020, New Zealands interest rate was cut by 75 basis points (bp), lowering the OCR to 0.25% from 1% in February 2020 as the negative impact of Covid-19 on the countrys economy rose, the bank said in its statement. The RBNZ kept the key New Zealand interest rate unchanged at 0.25% until August 2021.

In October 2021, the bank started to ease its monetary stimulus, raising the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate by 25bp to 0.50% as the economy showed signs of recovery.

However, the bank noticed risks from rising costs coming from higher oil prices and transportation costs, and supply shortfalls. At that time, the RBNZ expected inflation to increase above 4% in the near term.

The bank lifted the OCR by another 25bp in November 2021, bringing the interest rate to 0.75% by the end of 2021.

Since February 2022, as of 29 August, the bank has increased the New Zealand interest rate five times four of the hikes at 50bp. The series of rate increases took the OCR to 3% at the banks latest 17 August meeting, up from 1% in February.

Inflation, unemployment and the countrys economic growth are factors that the bank usually looks for to adjust the New Zealand interest rate. Lets look at how these have developed this year.

Inflation in New Zealand climbed to 7.3% in the second quarter to June 2022 the largest annual increase in 32 years, according to the countrys statistics office, Stats NZ.

It was more than double the banks inflation target of a maximum of 3%. The June 2022 quarter inflation was also higher compared to 6.9% in the first quarter of 2022 and 3.3% in the second quarter of 2021, as shown in the chart.

Housing and household utilities mainly rising prices for construction and rentals for housing are the main drivers for the 7.3% annual inflation up to the June 2022 quarter, Stats NZ said.

In its monetary policy statement in August, the RBNZ forecast annual CPI inflation to decline to 6.4% in Q4 2022. Over 2023, the bank has projected annual headline inflation to gradually drop, returning to the top of the 1%-to-3% target band by early 2024.

The banks Survey of Expectations, which polled 35 business leaders and forecasters and was released on 8 August, forecast inflation to decline to 4.86% in one year and 3.07% in two years. The five-year inflation expectation was set at 2.33%.

ANZ Research expected inflation in New Zealand to come down to 6.7% in September and 6.1% in December 2022. Inflation is forecast to continue its downward trajectory until it falls within the banks target at 2.5% in December 2023 and 2.3% in March 2024.

Acute labour shortages have kept New Zealands unemployment rate low. Stats NZ announced on 3 August that the annual unemployment rate stood at 3.3% in Q3 2022 practically unchanged from 3.2% in Q2 2022.

In August's monetary policy statement, the RBNZ attributed labour shortages to higher-than-usual levels of sickness from Covid-19 and other illnesses, as well as an outflow of New Zealanders heading overseas following the reopening of the countrys border.

A very tight labour market is adding to high consumer price index (CPI) inflation, with wage growth continuing to increase as businesses compete to attract or retain staff, the bank said in the statement.

The banks survey expected one-year-ahead unemployment to increase to 3.77% and to 4.31% in two years.

On 26 August, ANZ Research forecast New Zealands unemployment rate to rise to 3.4% in December 2022 and remain steady at that level in the first quarter of 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to pick up to 4% in Q4 2023, rising further to 4.8% in Q1 2024.

The countrys economy grew by 5.1% in the first quarter of 2022, but fell by 0.2% on a quarterly basis from 3% to December 2021, according to Stats NZ. The drop was primarily due to a decrease in primary industrys gross domestic products (GDP).

New Zealands central bank forecast the countrys GDP growth to slow to 3.9% in 2023, from an estimated 5.4% in 2022. It expected the GDP to have 0.6% contraction in 2024 before rebounding to 0.7% in 2025.

The RBNZs Survey of Expectations projected GDP growth to reach 1.49% in a year and achieve 1.89% annual growth in the June 2024 quarter.

The economy is then expected to grow faster in the year after, though still slower than what was previously expected two years ahead, the survey said.

ANZ Research forecast New Zealands GDP to grow by 4.4% in the September 2022 quarter, slowing to 2.2% in the December quarter. The countrys GDP growth picked up slightly to 2.8% in the March 2023 quarter before gradually declining to 1% in the March quarter of 2024.

While the RBNZs interest rate policy has a direct impact on New Zealands national currency, the NZD/USD rate has lately been strongly influenced by announcements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

NZD/USD live chart

On 10 August, Netherlands-based ING Groups research arm THINK weighed in on the prospects for the NZD/USD rate in the upcoming months, noting:

While the Kiwi dollar can continue to count on the most attractive carry in the G10, we suspect more instability in global risk sentiment may delay any benefits for high-yielding currencies to 4Q or the start of 2023.

We think NZD/USD could sink back to 0.62 by the end of this quarter, before starting to turn higher later this year and touch 0.64 by year-end.

Roger J. Kerr, Executive Chairman of investment firm Barrington Treasury Services, recently said that the NZD/USD rate is dominated by the decisions made by the Fed, with local factors, such as labour shortages and low consumer confidence, being practically irrelevant:

The NZD/USD exchange rate has plunged back to the low of 0.6140, last seen in June, following the speech at Jackson Hole by US Federal Reserve Governor, Jerome Powell on Friday 26th August.

The Kiwi dollar was hit hard by the risk aversion investment market sentiment as the Dow Jones index on the US equities market dropped over 1,000 points on the day following the Powell speech.

Whilst the NZ economy paints a decidedly negative picture, the NZ dollar value is unlikely to suffer as a result as there has been absolutely no offshore interest in the Kiwi for quite some time. The NZD/USD exchange rate movement will continue to be dominated by the USD side and the local NZ economic factors will continue to be totally irrelevant.

What are the long-term New Zealand interest rate predictions from analysts and the RBNZ?

In its Asia Economic Weekly outlook on 26 August, Bank of America (BofA) predicted New Zealand interest rates to rise by 50bp when the central banks MPC convenes in October, and another 50bp hike in November, taking New Zealands interest rate to 4% by end of the year.

BofA expected the RBNZ to put any rate adjustment on hold in 2023. The bank also forecast a significant slowdown in the countrys economic growth as tighter financial conditions gain traction, slowing the pace of household and business spending growth.

Ongoing capacity constraints and high inflation are unlikely to be resolved soon. Yet there is increased uncertainty around the global and domestic economic outlook. With domestic demand holding up relatively well outside of the housing market, there is increased risk for the hiking cycle to be extended into 2023, the bank said in the note.

In its New Zealand interest rate outlook on 26 August, ANZ Research forecast the RBNZ to increase OCR to 4% by December 2022 and hold the rate at that level until December 2023.

ANZ had previously forecast that the bank may cut the OCR from a peak of 4% in the second half of 2024 to 3.5% in the fourth quarter 2024m but it has removed the rate cut in the latest estimate.

ANZ noted:

While obviously what 2024 looks like is subject to extreme uncertainty, weve now taken those cuts out of our forecast, to make it consistent with our current thinking. We continue to expect the RBNZ to lift the OCR to a peak of 4% by year-end, though we see the risk profile tilted to more. But we no longer expect the RBNZ will be cutting the OCR over the duration of our forecast horizon (barring some miraculous recovery in the supply-side of the economy, or some unforecastable shock hitting the economy).

In its August monetary policy statement, the RBNZ estimated that it may hike the OCR to 3.7% by December 2022 and 4% by Q1 2023. The OCR may be lifted to 4.1% in Q2 2023 and held there until the second half of 2024, before being lowered to 3.6% in September 2025.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) has predicted that the New Zealand interest rate will be lifted to 3.5% by December 2022 and stay at that level until September 2023. The RBNZ is forecast to cut the key rate to 3.25% in December 2023 and continue to gradually lower it to 2.25% in December 2024, according to NABs forecast.

ANZ, BofA and the RBNZ did not offer forecasts beyond 2025.

Australian lender Westpac predicted interest rates in New Zealand to rise in the short term,forecasting the RBNZ to lift the OCR to 4% by the end of 2022, from 3% in the Q3 2022.

The bank predicted that the interest rate in New Zealandmay be held at 4% until the second quarter of 2024, before the countrys central bank cuts the rate in the third quarter to 3.5%, continuing to lower the OCR until it reaches 2% in December 2025.

The RBNZ is forecast to pause any adjustment on the OCR and keep the rate at 2% until the end of 2028.

Forecasts in this article showed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise the interest rate to 4% by the end of the year, before lowering it in the long term as inflation pressure is expected to ease.

Remember that analysts predictions can be wrong. You should always conduct your own research before trading, looking at the latest news, analyst commentary, fundamental and technical analysis. Note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealands official cash rate (OCR) stood at 3% after a 50bp rate hike on 17 August. The rate may change in following meetings.

Forecasts from banks mentioned in this article showed that the New Zealand interest rate could fall in the long term as inflation pressures are expected to ease. Note that analysts forecasts can be wrong. Always do your own research.

Australian lender Westpac has estimated the NZ interest rate to stand at 2% by December 2028. Keep in mind that their projection can be subject to error.

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New Zealand interest rate forecast: Will RBNZ continue to be global tightening leader? - Capital.com

Williams said to AM host Melissa Chan-Green: "It is kind of grim because Louis CK is probably the best comedian in the world and he's kind of brushed away these very serious allegations against him."

"For me it's kind of depressing because the question has always been 'why aren't there more women in comedy?'. I think the honest answer is because of sexual assaults and predators like Louis CK and so it's a really tough one," said Williams.

"People go 'I find him funny and I'm going to watch the show', but I think anyone trying to buy tickets, you have to think this guy is an abuser. He doesn't really repent for what he's done and tried to suppress the allegations against him for so many years.

"I don't think it's very ethical to go and support a comedian like him... he can just continue to tour whenever he wants.

"He won the Grammy last year so the Grammys are kind of endorsing him but I think he doesn't realise the magnitude of what he's done, as so many men don't realise the seriousness of sexual harassment and sexual assault.

"So in my mind, he's not someone who's worth bringing back."

Louis CK will perform at Auckland's Kiri Te Kanawa Theatre on Saturday, November 19, Christchurch's Town Hall on Sunday, November 20 and Wellington's Michael Fowler Centre on Tuesday, November 22.

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Guy Williams slams 'abuser' Louis CK's tour of New Zealand - Newshub

The Black Ferns Sevens haka. Photo / Photosport

The All Blacks Sevens and Black Ferns Sevens squads set to compete for the Rugby World Cup Sevens title in South Africa early next month have been named today.

Both teams are defending back-to-back champions and depart for Cape Town today, the men fresh from victory at the Los Angeles Sevens in USA and the women from their training base in Tauranga.

The Rugby World Cup Sevens is played in a knockout format, with both teams just playing one must-win match in a bid to advance to the quarter-finals. A total of 24 men's teams and 16 women's teams will take the field at Cape Town Stadium.

On their way to victory at the Los Angeles Sevens over the weekend, the All Blacks Sevens lost four players to an already sizeable injury tally.

Coach Clark Laidlaw said while those players would have been likely selections in the World Cup squad, he is ultimately pleased with the makeup of the team.

"I guess the exciting part of the weekend just been was the emergence of some players that don't always get a lot of game time. It tested our depth and showed if we apply ourselves the players we have are very capable.

"Winning like that builds belief. We had a tough pool but there were little moments that set the tone in terms of the resilience we want to show."

Senior players including co-captain Sam Dickson, Scott Curry and Dylan Collier were rested for the USA tournament and will add their experience to the World Cup campaign.

"They are three of our best and arguably some of the best forwards in the game at the moment. I think their energy will perk up the boys so it will be perfect bringing them in as the rest of the squad are recovering from the weekend."

Laidlaw said the prospect of the unique format makes for an exciting two weeks ahead.

"The World Cup is unlike any other tournament. Only playing four games across three days; there is a lot of downtime where you could over-think things so getting that balance right is important.

"Some of our fondest memories are tournaments in South Africa, they have passionate fans if we come up against South Africa you won't find a more hostile environment we're excited to get there."

The All Blacks Sevens will open their campaign against the winner of the match between Scotland and Jamaica.

The Black Ferns Sevens will celebrate two significant milestones at the Rugby World Cup Sevens with Canterbury teen Jorja Miller set to make her international debut while captain Sarah Hirini will become the first player to reach the milestone of 50 tournaments for the side.

"The team is surrounded by some really good energy at the moment. We can all jump on board and be inspired if its about the first tournament or the 50th tournament it will be important for the players to express themselves and enjoy this moment," said coach Cory Sweeney.

Sweeney said Miller's debut was just a matter of time.

"We've watched Jorja since she was 15 years old and she's been a stand out amongst her peers. We had internal games last week and there was no question, she stood up and really earned her selection."

Preparation for the World Cup has been solid for the team as they will look to improve on their bronze medal showing from the Commonwealth Games.

"Its fair to say that the group was disappointed, but we were proud of how they bounced back to win the bronze medal. We are determined to reach our potential, so the last three weeks have been awesome and we are ready to go to the World Cup and be as strong as we possibly can.

"We know what Cape Town is like, the environment is unreal and we are excited to get there."

The Black Ferns Sevens will play Colombia in their opening match.

Kurt Baker (33, Hawke's Bay, 50)Dylan Colllier (31, (Waikato, 46)Scott Curry (34, Bay of Plenty, 60)Sam Dickson (32, Canterbury, 63) co-captainMoses Leo (25, North Harbour, 4)Ngarohi McGarvey-Black (26, Ngati Porou East Coast, 18)Sione Molia (28, Counties Manukau, 44) co-captainTone Ng Shiu (28, Tasman, 32)Amanaki Nicole (30, Southland, 12)Lewis Ormond (28, Taranaki, 13)Akuila Rokolisoa (28, Counties Manukau, 19)Brady Rush (23, Northland, 4)Caleb Tangitau (19, Auckland, 6)Regan Ware (28, Tasman, 46)

Unavailable due to injury: Tim Mikkelson, Rhodes Featherstone, Kitiona Vai, Joe Webber, Leroy Carter, Roderick Solo, Che Clark, Andrew Knewstubb

Michaela Blyde (26, Bay of Plenty, 35)Kelly Brazier (32, Bay of Plenty, 40)Stacey Fluhler (26, Bay of Plenty, 29)Sarah Hirini (29, Manawatu, 49) - captainJazmin Felix-Hotham (22, Waikato, 4)Shiray Kaka (27, Waikato, 17)Jorja Miller (18, Canterbury, debut)Risaleeana Pouri-Lane (22, Bay of Plenty, 9)Alena Saili (23, Bay of Plenty, 22)Niall Williams (34, Auckland, 31)Tenika Willison (24, Waikato, 15)Portia Woodman (31, Northland, 38)

Travelling reserves: Manaia Nuku and Mahina Paul

Unavailable due to injury: Tyla Nathan Wong, Shakira Baker, Tysha Ikenasio

Saturday 10 September (NZT)

2.01am: All Blacks Sevens v winner of Scotland v Jamacia3.37am: Black Ferns Sevens v Colombia

Remaining fixtures will be determined on the outcome of the first matches.

See full schedule here.

See the rest here:

NZ squads named for Rugby World Cup Sevens - New Zealand Herald

The Government introduces a tax on Kiwisaver, the new plan to stop the crime wave and remembering Princess Diana 25 years on in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

A 501 recently deported from Australia missed his court date in New Zealand this week because he says he was focused on finding a job.

In his absence, the judge imposed an order with a number of conditions he must abide by until July 2023 - including not possessing or consuming drugs or alcohol, attending alcohol and drug counselling and staying away from violence.

They are all conditions Irie Te Moana Charles Tiki Johnson says he's more than happy to meet as he tries to build a new life here.

The 29-year-old told Open Justice he would have no problem complying as he is now drug-free, actively looking for work and hoping someone would give him the chance to prove himself.

"You have got to get a job, you have got to do something productive with your time. I've got no idea what I'll end up doing at the moment but you have got to do something."

Johnson's case was heard in the Whanganui District Court on Monday where the Department of Corrections chief executive sought to impose special conditions under the Returning Offenders Act 2015.

Johnson was released from a Western Australian prison in April after serving just under two years for drug and burglary charges.

He then spent time in a detention centre awaiting his deportation back to New Zealand and his home town of Whanganui.

Johnson, who has been in Australia since 2015, had mixed feelings about coming home to provincial Aotearoa.

"It's good, but it's the reason I left in the first place.

"It's not easy settling in, but it's a lot easier because all of my family are here."

Johnson had been initially working in Australia but then found himself in a bit of trouble after using methamphetamine.

"It's a slippery slope with that one."

Following his first offences Johnson says he tried to come home to sort himself out but his request was refused as he had to serve his community detention sentence, which resulted in him sleeping rough on the streets.

"Being a Kiwi in Australia, when you are homeless, you can't get Centrelink [income support] and you can't get references for jobs. You end up trapped in a cycle you are unable to break."

He said using methamphetamine made living on the streets bearable.

"It was better than actually sleeping. However, I fell back into the same trap and got caught doing the same stuff again, which ultimately led me to do what I did."

He had no bitterness about being deported.

"If people were doing that in my country, I would probably do that same."

Judge Carter imposed the order, in Johnson's absence. Johnson said he was attending a second interview for a job as a storeman.

It comes after 501 deportee Aaron Paul Pryce successfully challenged a requirement that prevented him from entering any licenced premises besides a supermarket.

The 41-year-old, who was deported last year after serving an eight-year sentence for a home invasion, felt the restriction imposed by the Department of Corrections was unfair, saying he had done his time and should be able to enjoy a beer with his mates.

In January a judge agreed with him.

Pryce told Open Justice at the time he encouraged other deportees to follow his lead and challenge any conditions they feel have been unfairly imposed on them since their return to New Zealand.

"I have tried to do the right thing and I got a win, and every other 501 should do the same thing and we can all catch up for a beer at some stage."

Read more:

501 deportee looking to contribute to community after beating drug problem - New Zealand Herald