Daily Archives: August 29, 2022

Things appear to be looking up for Democratic Senate candidates.

As recently as a few months ago, Republicans were widely viewed as the favorites to take control of the Senate after the crucial US midterm elections this November. Given the current 50-50 split, Republicans only need to flip one seat to regain the majority in the upper chamber.

But now, the nomination of several controversial Republican candidates and a recent string of Democratic legislative victories have many election forecasters reconsidering their predictions. Democrats appear better positioned to keep the Senate now than at any other point of this election cycle, although experts emphasize that the outlook could significantly shift again before November.

Democrats have the benefit of a favorable Senate map this year, as they are not defending any seats in states carried by Donald Trump in 2020.

Democrats prospects have also been aided by Republicans failure to recruit top candidates in several states, including incumbent governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. Instead, vulnerable Republicans were able to secure nominations in a number of key battleground states, often with the help of Trumps endorsement.

In Georgia, the former professional football player Herschel Walker has attracted scandal for failing to acknowledge the existence of two secret children and abusing his ex-wife. Walker has acknowledged the abuse, saying he was suffering from mental illness at the time.

In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has alienated voters because of his past dubious health claims and his longtime residency in New Jersey before deciding to run for office.

In Ohio, author JD Vance has struggled to gain his footing, most recently being criticized because his now-shuttered non-profit dedicated to combating opioid addiction promoted the work of a doctor with ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

As Republican candidates have stumbled, Democrats have enjoyed a wave of wins on Capitol Hill.

Last week, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping spending package that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in investments aimed at reducing the countrys planet-heating emissions and lowering Americans healthcare costs.

The supreme courts decision to overturn Roe v Wade, ending the federal right to abortion access, appears to be driving voters to the polls as well. On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan won a hotly contested special congressional race in New York after running a campaign focused on protecting abortion rights.

Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.

All of those developments seem to be resonating in several key Senate races. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have pulled slightly ahead in Ohio and Georgia, while the partys candidates in Pennsylvania and Arizona have opened larger leads of eight to nine points.

Retirements, recruitment failures and vicious primaries coupled with Trumps endorsements have left Republicans with a roster of flawed and deeply damaged candidates, while Democrats are running strong, battle-tested incumbents and challengers who are backed by their own unique coalition of voters, Christie Roberts, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a memo late last month.

Even senior Republicans have acknowledged that the tide has turned against them in the battle for the Senate. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, said on Monday that the partys chances of regaining control of the chamber were 50-50.

Weve got a 50-50 Senate right now. Weve got a 50-50 nation, McConnell said at a business luncheon in Kentucky. And I think the outcome is likely to be very, very close either way.

Election forecasters have similarly picked up on this shift in momentum. FiveThirtyEights forecast model now says that Democrats are slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, while the Cook Political Report updated its Senate prediction to toss-up last week.

I would have said, before primaries began in earnest at the start of May, that Republicans had at least a 60% shot of flipping Senate control, said Jessica Taylor, Cooks Senate and governors editor. We now see it as a pure toss-up, and I can see anywhere between Democrats picking up one seat to Republicans picking up three.

Democrats are not throwing away this new advantage, instead making a point to highlight their opponents weaknesses. One anti-Trump group aired an ad featuring Walkers ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, describing how he once held a gun to her head and threatened to kill her.

The Ohio Democratic party bought the abandoned website of Vances defunct non-profit, adding a greeting to the homepage reading, This site no longer exists because JD Vance is a fraud.

Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania has gone to increasingly humorous lengths to troll his opponent. At one point, Fettermans campaign circulated a petition calling for Oz to be inducted into New Jerseys Hall of Fame. Fetterman has even gone so far as to enlist the help of celebrities like Nicole Snooki Polizzi, from the reality television show Jersey Shore, to film ads encouraging Oz to come home to New Jersey.

Senate Democratic candidates have also enjoyed somewhat of a cash advantage in recent months. The DSCC reported a $10m haul in July, marking the fourth month in a row that the group outraised its counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The NRSC recently cut its ad buys in three battleground states, sparking questions about potential financial difficulties, although the committee fiercely pushed back against that speculation.

Weve invested in building our grassroots fundraising program, which has paid dividends this cycle and will benefit the NRSC and the party as a whole for cycles to come, Chris Hartline, the NRSCs communications director, said on Monday. We work closely with every one of our campaigns and will continue to do so.

But even if Democrats do manage to keep control of the Senate, Republicans are still favored to take back the House, partly because of their success in redistricting. If Congress is divided after the midterms, Democrats will face severe hurdles in trying to advance their legislative agenda.

Under that scenario, I expect [House] Republicans to overreach week in and week out, passing one form of extreme legislation after another when theyre not trying to investigate the Biden administration. All of which is going to die a quick, painful death in the Senate, said Jim Manley, who served as a senior adviser to Harry Reid, the late Senate Democratic leader.

Although it may be difficult to pass bills, a Democratic Senate majority could still reap significant rewards for Biden, particularly when it comes to presidential nominations. If another supreme court seat opens up between now and 2024, a Democratic Senate would help Biden add another liberal justice to the bench.

While there might not be much of a chance for legislating because the House will be dominated by extremists, it doesnt mean nothing can get done, Manley said. Maybe theres going to be a chance or two to try and work on a bipartisan basis after some negotiation, but the Senate I think would spend most of their time under such a scenario confirming judicial nominees.

Although things are looking up for Democrats now, experts caution that November is still a political eternity away, and Republicans have historical trends working in their favor. The presidents party usually loses seats in midterm elections, and Bidens approval rating has now been underwater for roughly a year, which could be enough for Republicans to flip the Senate.

While things are better for Democrats, it could swing back. This could just be a blip on the radar. I would not be shocked if thats the case and we sort of returned to a midterm stasis, where the party out of power has the momentum, Taylor said. But even if Democrats can cut into that some, it could mean keeping the Senate.

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As Republicans stumble could Democrats really hold on to the Senate? - The Guardian US

Joe Biden has transformed his rough July into a jubilant August. Last month, the US president was drowning in negative headlines about his handling of numerous crises, from the war in Ukraine to record-high gas prices and the apparent demise of his signature legislative proposal.

Now, as the summer draws to a close, Biden is riding high, powered by the passage of Democrats climate and healthcare package and glimmers of hope for his partys prospects in the midterm elections. That optimism was on vivid display on Thursday, as Biden took the stage for a rally held by the Democratic National Committee in Rockville, Maryland.

Weve come a long way in 18 months. Covid no longer controls our lives. A record number of Americans are working, Biden told the cheering crowd. We never gave up. We never gave in. Were delivering for the American people now.

Bidens speech offered a preview of Democrats closing message to voters as they enter the final sprint leading up to the November elections. With the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law and Roe v Wade overturned by the conservative-led supreme court, Democrats believe they have a successful strategy to win re-election this fall, and they are prepared to defy previous predictions of a Republican shellacking.

At the top of the year, it was almost like Democrats were counted out, and most were preparing for the absolute worst, said Anthony Robinson, political director of the National Democratic Training Committee. I think that were in a completely, completely different headspace going into the midterms. Theres still a lot to do, but I think theres a definite shift in the tide.

This week saw fresh indicators that Democrats may be able to avoid the widespread losses usually suffered by the presidents party in the midterms. Democrat Pat Ryan narrowly won a special congressional election in upstate New York on Tuesday, giving him the chance to represent a bellwether district that flipped from supporting Donald Trump in 2016 to backing Biden in 2020. Democrats have similarly outperformed expectations in other recent special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota.

Ryan focused his campaign on the need to protect abortion rights in the wake of the Roe reversal, which ended the federal right to abortion access. Democrats say Ryans campaign could provide a playbook to other candidates looking to motivate voters to go to the polls in November.

I think that he found what resonated in his community and met people where they are, Robinson said. It wasnt about a bunch of figures and numbers. It was just about the raw emotion and that peoples lives are at stake. Thats something that I think is important to everyone.

The passage of Democrats spending package has also helped mitigate concerns that candidates would have little to campaign on, despite the partys control of the White House and Congress. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law last week, includes $369bn in funds to reduce Americas planet-heating emissions and several provisions aimed at lowering healthcare costs, particularly for Medicare recipients.

Democrats have their mojo after passing numerous policies that will tangibly impact peoples lives, and now the key is to really sell it with confidence before the midterms, said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. Lowering prescription drug prices, lowering healthcare costs and making water and air healthier for peoples kids is a very good message to take to voters who wonder, does it matter if I vote Democrat or vote at all?

Biden continued the string of victories on Wednesday, as he signed an executive order to cancel at least $10,000 in student loan debt for millions of borrowers. The order fell far short of what progressives had demanded, but even Democrats who had pushed for more debt cancellation celebrated the news.

At the end of the day, Biden exceeded the expectations of most progressives on what he would do on student debt, Green said. If people want more, theyre certainly not going to get it with Republicans. But this is going to wipe out debt completely for about 20 million people and be a giant chunk out of their debt for many others.

Before Thursdays rally, Biden met Democratic donors for a $1m fundraiser, where he attacked Donald Trump and his Republican predecessors party loyalists and voter base.

Were seeing now either the beginning or the death knell of an extreme Maga agenda, he said, referring to Trumps Make America Great Again campaign slogan. Its not just Trump ... Its almost semi-fascism, Biden added.

As Biden has enjoyed this recent wave of wins, his approval rating has ticked up as well, although it remains underwater. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday found that 41% of Americans approve of Bidens job performance, marking the first reading above 40% since early June.

Earlier this month, Democrats overtook Republicans on the generic congressional ballot for the first time since last November, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Those developments have led some election forecasters to shift their predictions for the November elections. FiveThirtyEights forecast model suggests Democrats are now slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, and the Cook Political Report downgraded its outlook for Republican gains in the House after Ryans victory in New York.

But Republicans are still favored to regain control of the House, reflecting the strong headwinds that Democrats face as they look toward November. Republicans secured several key victories in redistricting battles, giving them a more favorable House map. Considering Democrats extremely narrow majority in the House, redistricting alone may provide enough of an advantage for Republicans to recapture the lower chamber.

Americans anxiety over the economy presents additional challenges for Democrats. Inflation is higher than it has been in more than 40 years, squeezing families budgets amid concerns that the US has entered a recession. An NBC News poll taken this month found that 74% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, marking the fifth month in a row that the reading was over 70%.

Republicans remain confident that the pessimistic national mood will convince voters to reject Democrats in November, and they predicted that the student debt cancelation would end up backfiring on Biden. Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, attacked the policy as a bailout for the wealthy.

Bidens bailout unfairly punishes Americans who saved for college or made a different career choice, and voters see right through this short-sighted, poorly veiled vote-buy, McDaniel said on Wednesday.

Democrats acknowledge they still have their work cut out for them over the next three months, which is more than enough time for Republicans to address their sudden reversal in fortune. But as he addressed an exuberant crowd chanting four more years, Biden seemed more ready than ever to overcome historical trends and protect his partys majorities in Congress this fall.

We the people are the first words of our constitution, and we the people will still determine the destiny of America. If we the people stand together, we will prevail, Biden said on Thursday. We just have to keep the faith. We just have to persevere. We just have to vote.

Reuters contributed reporting

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Democrats have their mojo: has the tide shifted for Biden and his party? - The Guardian US

Throughout his campaign for the open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan has billed himself as an old-school moderate who will stand up for working families, common-sense policies, and traditional American valuesOhio values. But his actual voting record over nearly 20 years in Congress tells a different story.

"Democrats aren't right about everything," Rep. Ryan said during an interview earlier this summer. He's right, of coursebut even a cursory examination of his policy positions leaves one wondering which issues he actually thinks Democrats are wrong about. In just the past two years, he's voted to federalize elections, admit the District of Columbia as the 51st state, impose onerous new background check requirements on gun owners, and grant mass amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, in addition to co-sponsoring legislation that would restrict the right of states to legislate on abortion, and voting in favor of President Joe Biden's $3.5 trillion "Build Back Better" Act.

In fact, Ryan has voted with President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 100 percent of the time this Congressincluding on the $1.9 trillion inflation-causing "American Rescue Plan" that even liberal economist Larry Summers called the "least responsible" economic policy in 40 years. Unsurprisingly, and in recognition of his far-left voting record, Ryan has received the endorsement of progressives like "Squad" leader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and held a virtual fundraiser with Hillary Clinton earlier this year.

In other words, Ryan is hardly the pragmatic moderate he likes to play when the cameras are on. In one ad, he claims he will "work with either party to cut costs and pass a middle-class tax cut." Yet just days ago, he voted with Democrats to pass a massive tax-and-spend packagethe misleadingly titled Inflation Reduction Actthat the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates will result in an increased tax burden of $16.7 billion next year on Americans making less than $200,000. In another ad, Ryan voices support for law enforcement, but in the past has said he believes there is systemic racism in policing, and in 2017 voted against bipartisan legislation that would have authorized the death penalty for all convicted cop killers.

While he claims to care about bipartisanship, Ryan has also called for an end to the Senate filibuster rule, which would pave the way for unchecked one-party rule in Congress. Even on the most basic questions, the Ryan campaign seems terrified of upsetting the Democratic baserefusing to say that men cannot get pregnant and to offer a definition of the word "woman."

Rep. Ryan has also been quick to tout his support for policies championed by former president Donald Trumpnamely certain trade and tariff-related issuesas evidence of his willingness to work across the aisle. But throughout Trump's four years in office, Ryan only voted in line with the president's position 16 percent of the time.

The other 84 percent of the time, Ryan was voting against Trump and with his fellow Democrats. For example, while he's been careful to note his support for Trump's USMCA trade agreement, Ryan voted against the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the legislation that set the stage for the historic economic gains seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. He also opposed Trump-backed bills that would have protected Second Amendment freedoms for veterans, allocated funding for the border wall, expedited the deportation of illegal alien gang members, and prohibited abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape and incest (he now refuses to say whether he supports any restrictions on abortion).

Ohioans deserve a senator who will vote with their interests all of the time, not just on a few select issues that play well in campaign ads. When it comes to Tim Ryan, the record is clearhe's no moderate, and voters won't be fooled by his charade.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. He formerly served as a staffer in the White House and U.S. Senate, and is a graduate of Wittenberg University in Springfield, Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

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Don't Fall for The Makeover. Tim Ryan is A Liberal Democrat | Opinion - Newsweek

Vega handed Spanberger a rare opening when she was caught on tape casting doubt on the idea that women can get pregnant from rape. The spot warns that Vega once said only God can decide the life of the mother.

Yesli Vega cheered the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, a narrator says in the ad, adding: Yesli Vega is too extreme for Virginia.

Spanberger was first elected in 2018 when she ousted Republican Rep. Dave Brat from his central Virginia seat. Redistricting left her in a seat that President Joe Biden would have carried by 6 points and she is considered one of the more endangered Democrats.

The initial buy, backed by nearly $560,000, will run from Friday to Sept. 5 on broadcast and cable in the Washington, D.C. and Charlottesville, Va. markets. The incumbent has a staggering $4.9 million in her war chest as of July. Vega had less than $250,000.

Spanberger joins a handful of vulnerable Democratic women who have aired TV ads on abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and erased the constitutional right to an abortion. Reps. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) have all messaged on the issue, as have a slew of candidates.

Lee went on air almost immediately after the Dobbs ruling with an abortion rights-focused buy. But it wasnt immediately clear how many Democrats would use paid advertising to stress their commitment to abortion access. Voters in Kansas declined to roll back abortion rights in a referendum earlier this month, in another powerful sign that moderates and independents did not agree with the ruling. Ryans triumph in New York only boosted that signal.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has painted it as an issue that can juice up Democratic base voters and persuade moderates, especially after the special election on Tuesday. Ryan leaned heavily into abortion rights and beat Republican Marc Molinaro by 2 points in a district that backed Biden narrowly in 2020.

We see this as a powerful issue in swing districts, not the only issue People still care a lot about the economy and inflation, said DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. But the abortion issue has changed the equation. Theres no doubt about it. And were seeing the impact more every day.

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Endangered Democrat turns to abortion as opening argument on TV - POLITICO