Daily Archives: August 15, 2022

Revdi-nomics – Times of India

Posted: August 15, 2022 at 6:36 pm

In the last few weeks we have seen how politics of family first, corruption first and freebies first have led to the complete destruction of economies around India especially Sri Lanka. Sounding a note of caution, Prime Minister Modi, without taking the name of any state, political party or personality spoke about the perils of short cut politics and populism. This is something upon which various intellectuals and institutions, including the Supreme Court , have weighed in upon from time to time.

Any effective and efficient administrator would endorse the idea of ensuring that his or her government ensures targeted, foolproof and leakage free delivery of welfare policies to those who need it the most rather than a free for all approach that is inherently unfair to the most deprived and perhaps nothing more than a gimmick because usually such schemes can never be implemented or sustained for a long time. Given that any state has finite resources, and not unlimited bounties , which ultimately come from the tax payer it is essential that administrators ensure that the first right on these resources belong to the poorest and most marginalised.

From this it is very clear that while a welfare measure is a targeted instrument to effect long term change and for improving the condition of the beneficiary by raising it to a level where the beneficiary can become self sustaining and productive, a freebie or a Revdi is a mere feel good announcement whose implementation is suspect, outcome is flawed and intent is malafide.

In that context one was perplexed as to why the chief minister of Delhi took the comment of the Prime Minister so personally even when nobody had been identified or named. It was as if a raw nerve had been touched. The over reaction by Mr. Kejriwal therefore prompts us to examine in some greater depth the difference between welfare and Revdi.

Mr Kejriwal has been constantly harping about his so called free education model. His spokespersons claim that many in Delhi have taken their children out of private schools and enrolled them into government schools in Delhi. Logically that would mean more schools should have been opened by Mr Kejriwals government in the last eight years to cater to this huge demand.

But in debate after debate, night after night, much to my surprise, those who promised that they would open 500 new schools and 20 new colleges cant name 20 new schools and 5 new colleges they have opened up in the last eight years. In fact the Delhi government is guilty of closing down several government schools instead of opening of new ones and this issue was raised by the BJP in the Delhi assembly. They keep talking about adding classrooms but that means nothing unless you have other infrastructure including teachers, toilets, grounds, etc. to cater to those additional children and unless you open up a school that is close to their locality instead of adding some rooms in an existing school which is far away and inaccessible.

The reality is also that of the 1027 schools the Delhi government has nearly 750+ schools had no principal and 418+ schools had no vice principal, something that has been flagged by the NCPCR. It is also fact that thousands of seats meant for EWS category students had not been filled as per the RTE Act thereby depriving poor children of their constitutional right to free and compulsory education. 22,000 guest teachers lost their jobs.

Delhi government has promised to make them permanent but far from that they havent even filled up the sanction positions for teachers in Delhi government schools. In fact recently the Delhi High Court sought a response from the Kejriwal government on a plea that exposed how 63% of teachers posts, 80% of principals posts were lying vacant in schools run by Delhi government. Delhi High Court in April 2022 pulled up the Delhi government for failure to pay salaries to teachers and Justice Subramanium Prasad lamented that lack of money was not an answer for non-payment and teachers could not be treated like this as they shape the future of the country. Surely this is far from being a world-class model!

All of this is having a direct impact on the performance of the schools and a recent report suggested of 40% of students who failed class ninth are dropping out of school. Recently the NAS 2021- a survey testing students of classes 3rd, 5th, 8th and 10th from across the country in a variety of subjects showed the Delhi government schools scored comparatively lower in every subject and across classes in comparison to Punjab.

What the Delhi government schools have been at the forefront of his allegations of irregularities and corruption in construction of classrooms. Recently on the basis of a complaint made by MP Manoj Tiwari alleged that classrooms that could have been constructed at Rs.5lakhs per room were constructed at an inflated price of Rs.28 lakhs per room. This complaint has been taken cognizance of by the Delhis lokayukta and a probe and report has been sought. Even Mr Sisodias Education ministry has flagged off a number of complaints about use of low quality material, where is deficiencies in the construction work done by the PWD in a letter dated 20th of July 2022.

Since the orientation of the Revdi model is only to gather votes and make no substantive or transformational change, it emphasises more on advertisement or vigyapan and less on vyavastha or systemic change. A proof of this can be seen in the loan scheme of Kejriwal government were only two students could avail of a loan out of the 89 that had applied in the year 2021-22 but a sum of Rs 19 crores had been spent on advertising it. Welfare economics can transform and uplift lives of the most deprived whereas Revdi-nomics only burdens the tax payer while earning some short term political brownie points for its patroniser.

Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Revdi-nomics - Times of India

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What happened to American conservatism? Engaging Matthew Continetti’s The Right – Baptist News Global

Posted: at 6:36 pm

It is always valuable to engage the other side. Especially when one finds the other side utterly bewildering.

The other side I am trying to engage is American political conservatism. My guide today is Matthew Continetti, a brilliant conservative policy wonk with all the right credentials a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, columnist for Commentary magazine, and founding editor of the Washington Free Beacon. He began his career at the Weekly Standard.

Continettis new book, The Right, is being praised by authoritative conservative voices. I just worked my way through this bulky but fascinating work. I think it helps us understand what is going on in our politics right now.

Continetti tells a comprehensive story, which he subtitles as The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism.

He begins his chronicle of conservatism with the 1920s and the administrations of Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover. He describes this first iteration of American conservatism as pro-business, pro-limited government, pro-Constitution, pro-patriotism, pro-religious piety, and isolationist in foreign policy. It also was anti-immigration and supported high tariffs rather than globalized trade.

Roosevelts New Deal was perceived by conservatives as fundamentally changing the nature of government, making it much larger and more centralized than it ever should have been.

Herbert Hoover, a highly regarded and experienced leader when elected president in 1928, was perceived by the public to have failed in addressing the Great Depression and was swept out of office by Franklin Roosevelt. The Democrats dominated government for decades. Roosevelts New Deal was perceived by conservatives as fundamentally changing the nature of government, making it much larger and more centralized than it ever should have been, leaning in the direction of socialism and undercutting free-market principles.

It thus became a permanent goal of conservatives to roll back or privatize as much of the New Deal as possible, to reduce the government social welfare apparatus, and to cut back government regulation of business and government intervention in the economy. Those efforts have failed repeatedly, but in their rhetoric and often in their policy proposals, conservatives have demonstrated that they have never fully accepted the New Deal and the further expansions of federal government power in succeeding years.

Conservative isolationism in foreign policy remained a significant force until it was utterly discredited by Pearl Harbor and went underground during World War II. It remained submerged during the Cold War, when conservatives largely embraced a hawkish anti-Communist, interventionist foreign policy that became Democratic policy too. Anticommunism, says Continetti, held together disparate parts of the conservative movement as long as the Soviet Union lasted. Afterward, especially after the disastrous invasion of Iraq under George W. Bush, the older isolationist strand resurged, although it never was the only conservative approach.

Anticommunism, says Continetti, held together disparate parts of the conservative movement as long as the Soviet Union lasted.

Continetti spends considerable ink considering the anti-Communist mole-hunting crusade of Sen. Joseph McCarthy (R-WI) in the 1950s. McCarthy is significant not just because of the damage he did in hurling accusations at innocent people. For Continetti, he clearly foreshadows major later trends, apotheosized in but not confined to Donald Trump and his movement: apocalypticism, conspiracy theories, serial mendacity, constant attacks on major American government institutions and leaders, and the ability to mobilize ill-informed populist energies. The John Birch Society, also treated by Continetti, is another example of similar pathologies. Both McCarthyism and the John Birch Society bear a resemblance to todays QAnon conspiracy thinking as well as the overall irrational, conspiratorial, apocalypticism on the hard right.

For Continetti, the late 1960s marked a collapse of American progressivism/liberalism, symbolized by the chaos of the year 1968: campus riots and takeovers, anti-Vietnam fervor and liberal soft headedness on Communism and nuclear disarmament, the drug culture, the sexual revolution, street violence, race riots, political assassinations and the collapse of the presidency of Lyndon Johnson. The fracturing of the Democratic coalition provided an opening for a Republican return to power, which happened with Richard Nixons election in 1968.

Continetti also shows, through the rise and fall of Alabama Gov. George Wallace, who ran a popular third-party campaign in 1968, that there was a rather large constituency for race-baiting populism and not only in the South. Continetti could have said a bit more forthrightly that the Republican successes that developed from this point forward have always involved finding ways to appeal to this constituency and securing it reliably for the GOP.

Ronald Reagan is treated by Continetti as the most effective conservative leader of the entire century he surveys. Reagan was able to bridge the various divides within conservatism with his pro-business, small-government, anti-Communist platform, as well as his skill in bringing the emerging Christian Right to his side through his traditionalist religious and moral values rhetoric, offered in a generally sunny and upbeat manner.

Twenty years later, George W. Bush was less successful. Continetti seems intrigued by Bushs initial compassionate (Christian) conservatism platform, but his presidency was unexpectedly dominated by 9/11 and its aftermath. Bushs unprovoked attack on Iraq, followed by a bloody quagmire, divided conservatives (along with other Americans), his social policy agenda went nowhere, and he limped across the finish line with little surviving popularity. This helps us understand why the Bush dynasty proved completely powerless to prevent the rise of a very different kind of conservatism after George W.s departure to his art studio in Texas.

This reflects Continettis relatively muted treatment of white conservative racism throughout his book, which he largely treats as a fringe problem rather than central to the modern Right.

The presidency of Barack Obama is painted by Continetti as essentially the ineffectual meandering of a classic liberal academic, one of the elite types increasingly scorned by populist conservatives. Continetti notes and dismisses the birther myth and the conspiracy mongering that went on related to Obama and doesnt consider the idea that the rise of Donald Trump was deeply connected to white shock over the American election of a Black president. This reflects Continettis relatively muted treatment of white conservative racism throughout his book, which he largely treats as a fringe problem rather than central to the modern Right.

Continetti shows that large parts of the conservative punditocracy people like David Brooks, William Kristol, George Will, and so on sought to kill Donald Trumps candidacy during the primaries in 2016. But these heavy hitters proved just as powerless to stop him as were the numerous Republican politicians who ran against him or otherwise opposed him. Trump had the more powerful forces of the talk-radio and Fox News populists with him, along with tens of millions of base voters. He also demonstrated enormous skill in holding everyones attention.

Unfortunately, especially with Trumps refusal to concede the election and then Jan. 6, says Continetti, the very worst impulses of the populist wing of the American Right, such as demagoguery, scapegoating, and conspiracy theories were unleashed even more fully than they had been before. In the end, a politics of nihilism that lacked any real constructive agenda other than Trump himself was all that was left.

Continetti says that previously there had been some guardrails to contain or cabin fringe elements on the conservative side, like McCarthyism or the Birchers. But with the older stabilizing institutions and figures of conservatism dead, conquered or in disarray, Trump and his movement eventually came to represent all those worst instincts, entirely unrestrained.

With the older stabilizing institutions and figures of conservatism dead, conquered or in disarray, Trump and his movement eventually came to represent all those worst instincts, entirely unrestrained.

For Continetti, all this is disastrous for the conservative tradition he reveres, and it is clearly a dead end for the Republican Party they never can win majorities going down this rabbit hole. But, says Continetti, not only was the Right unable to get out of the hole; it did not want to.

As I write on Aug. 12, 2022, the Justice Department appears to be closing in on Trump for taking, holding and possibly sharing top secret U.S. government documents related to nuclear weapons; if true, along with the other investigations closing in on him, this may mean the end for Trump. But Trumpists have won most primary races this summer and appear set to lose very winnable races for Senate seats, governors offices and so on. And there are many other ways the disastrous Trump legacy will live on.

Continetti does a lot more than I have been able to summarize here. All major and many minor institutions, leaders, books and events in the conservative world of the last century are described in his book. I urge everyone who wants to understand where we are as a country to read it.

America is an ideologically diverse country. It needs a functioning conservative political party that cares about democracy. People like Matthew Continetti will be needed to help clean up the mess on the right and build something better.

David P. Gusheeis a leading Christian ethicist. serves as distinguished university professor of Christian Ethics at Mercer University, chair of Christian social ethics at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and senior research fellow at International Baptist Theological Study Centre. He is a past president of both the American Academy of Religion and the Society of Christian Ethics. His latest book isIntroducing Christian Ethics. Hes also the author ofKingdom Ethics,After Evangelicalism, andChanging Our Mind: The Landmark Call for Inclusion of LGBTQ Christians. He and his wife, Jeanie, live in Atlanta. Learn more:davidpgushee.comorFacebook.

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What happened to American conservatism? Engaging Matthew Continetti's The Right - Baptist News Global

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The moral failings of the developmental state – The Hindu

Posted: at 6:36 pm

All politicians in India promise development, yet the state apparatus and political factions in control cause inequality

Economic development is a primary means by which the Indian democratic project has legitimated itself. Given an electorate of mostly poor people, no government has been elected without making development the uplift of the downtrodden through service provision, the creation of individual freedom, and collective opportunity inherent in economic transformation its primary objective. Unlike archetypal developmental states such as the Republic of Korea, the Indian state after Independence had to accomplish its mandate of development in the context of a diverse and fissiparous democracy that had endured centuries of British colonial domination and the expropriation of its wealth.

This historical context, and the bureaucratic and political processes surrounding the delivery of development outcomes have generated growth but also created significant structural inequities that have taken different forms across Indias post-Independence history. The inequity associated with the actions of the developmental state, the corruption, and moral outrage that constitute the states broken promises to the people has been the driver of waves of political conflict in the Indian polity since Independence. The moral failings of different phases within the trajectory of Indias developmental state have inspired collective challenges to the establishment throughout its history.

Critiques of underdevelopment and the promises of development were at the heart of the nationalist movement against colonial rule. For early nationalist thinkers, the idea of India itself was suffused with a claim that it was one economy and one nation, suppressed in the fulfilment of its destiny by an imperial apparatus that sought to keep it divided, while draining its wealth and sending it overseas. The Congress party, when taking the reins of power, legitimated its rule primarily through a solemn promise that it would redress structures of political, economic, and social inequality by deploying the state to implement far-reaching programmes of development. Jawaharlal Nehru, in his famous Tryst with Destiny address, pledged the service of a sovereign government to the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of opportunity.

There was, however, a profound disconnect between the promises and actions of the developmental state in the first quarter-century after Independence. The Planning Commission, chaired by Nehru, drew up ambitious plans for development that entailed significant public and private investment in industry and the encouragement of cooperatives to transform agriculture. For poor peasants and aspirant workers, the solemn promises of development and the dismantling of inequality rang hollow. Structures of domination and pervasive social inequality reigned in practice as the conservative colonial-era bureaucracy and politicians, business elites, and dominant landowners benefitted the most from this developmental state. The abject failures of community development programmes, and sclerotic economic growth led to the political turmoil of the mid-to-late 1960s.

Indira Gandhi changed the nature of the developmental state. She effected a populist resurgence from within the Congress to address the gap between lofty promises of the state and degraded reality. Her appeal, which ended up splitting the party and transforming the nature of party competition, did deliver an overwhelming electoral mandate to her Congress. Indira Gandhis slogan Garibi hatao (eliminate poverty) and the subsequent 20-point programme conceived of the direct intervention by an empowered and enlarged state. The politicised state apparatus was now to address social inequalities through land reform, enforcement of the minimum wage, nationalisation of key industries, and extension of agricultural credit, among many other policies.

A main legacy of Indira Gandhis left-populism was that the state presented itself as the antidote to social and economic inequalities. The developmental state now looked different. The state apparatus was engorged, from the national to the State and local levels. Multiple public sector companies emerged at all levels of the economy, from the Centre to the States. Financial institutions banking and insurance were now in the hands of state apparatchiks. This system fostered corruption, rent-seeking and the capture of the institutions and resources of the state for the benefit of influential clients.

The increased demand for public resources to satisfy an ever-growing number of clients proved financially unsustainable. The economy underwent several rounds of liberalisation that dismantled some elements of state-directed development in the 1980s, but the basic pattern remained the same. The developmental state was now a state whose resources were allocated by and through political compulsions. And as political fragmentation grew, the pressure to control the remaining state resources for political gain expanded.

The storied liberalisation of 1991 renewed promises of dismantling inequality. Liberalisation offered a new idiom of increased opportunity. When combined with political fragmentation, neoliberal reform yielded crony capitalism, ineffective service delivery, and distrust of the system. Self-help and rights-based discourse now emerged as part of a new language of development. The United Progressive Alliance government expanded welfare-based rights, such as the Right to Education and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. But the ambitiousness of these centrally-planned schemes achieved only middling outcomes on the ground, as petty bureaucrats and local rent-seekers influenced their implementation for their ends, thus failing to build a political constituency among the poor around them. The middle classes protested this new developmental state which had created a state-facing inequality, where being known to the state and the politicians controlling it increasingly determined life chances and the economic prospects for Indias striving citizens.

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Narendra Modi won a parliamentary majority by promising to restore opportunity and clean up politics. His main slogan was, together, development for everybody. He attacked the Congress leadership for its corruption, projecting himself as a humble chaiwallah and servant of the people. While Hindu nationalist themes were never far from the surface and have become dominant in the BJPs discourse since the 2019 elections, the right-wing populist moment of the 2014 election brought together a broad and unlikely coalition of upper-middle-class professionals and lower-middle-class strivers. These groups were promised the end of inequality of opportunity, which had come to characterise many citizens interactions with the state in Indias known-to democracy. While Mr. Modis treatment of what ails the Indian body-politic has been tremendously polarising, and his own government has been wanting in delivering economic growth, his politics echoing that of regional populists in India, from N.T. Rama Rao to Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee tapped into a mood of widespread discontent toward the states development project.

Since 1991, the Indian state is no longer in the business of keeping the solemn promises of dismantling inequalities. The state now focuses on growth and passing handouts to voters a policy honed to perfection in Tamil Nadu by the various iterations of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

A developmental ideology is inextricably associated with democratic politics in independent India. The nations founders made solemn promises to deliver the people from inequity and subjugation the real meaning of development for democratic India. These ideas have been honoured more in the breach than in observance. Nehrus developmental state could not redress inequalities and failed to grow the economy quickly enough. Indira Gandhis policies placed the state at the centre of political life. The state was the agent of growth, yet, despite the rhetoric, addressing social and economic inequalities took a back seat. Even while speaking in lofty tones about development, the current regime does not emphasise the state as central to changing social norms and addressing income inequalities.

All politicians in India promise development as a part of democratic deliverance. Yet, the state apparatus and the political factions that control it reproduce inequality. From time to time, populist leaders shine a light on these hypocrisies. Their electoral mobilisations dramatically transform Indian politics without changing the states ability to deliver on political promises. This highlights the idea that development is the most powerful idiom of Indian democracy, an ideal on which ordinary people across social stations hold governments to account. Development, in other words, is as much a moral commitment as a technocratic undertaking. Development is inextricably linked with the meaning of Indian democracy.

Adnan Naseemullah and Pradeep Chhibber teach at Kings College, London and the University of California, Berkeley, respectively

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The moral failings of the developmental state - The Hindu

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Race to 10 Downing Street : How the next Reaganite could further deter relations with the EU Le Taurillon – thenewfederalist.eu

Posted: at 6:36 pm

Number 10 Downing Street, the office of the UK Prime Minister. Credit: Defence Imagery, Flickr.

The race to be UKs next Prime Minister is now down to 2- Liz Truss, the current Foreign Secretary and the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, whose resignation led to the start of backlash and the ultimate fall of Boris Johnson as the PM. The final two candidates will be trying to convince Tory party members to back them at hustings events around the country between 28July and 31August. The ballot will close at 17:00 BST on 2September. The next PM will be announced on September 6. The agendas of both the leaders have been set out to the public- with focus on tax cuts, leveraging a green economy and both at the same time more than ever enthusiastic at scrapping the remaining EU laws - something to cheer for, at least for some Eurosceptic media.

Liz Truss appears to be the favourite to replace Boris Johnson as the next PM, riding high on her promise of billions of pounds of tax cuts, setting targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and leveraging green growth and continuing the undeterred stance of the UK on the Ukraine War. Recent polls from the 4th of August suggest that her lead over Rishi Sunak has increased significantly (87 percent chances of Truss becoming the next PM) and chances are likely that come September 6, the 3rd ever woman will be sworn in as the next UK Prime Minister. Trusss tax cut promises come at a time when the UK economy has become stagnant and inflation has been at an all time high in recent decades along with a significant increase in public distrust towards the government in particular. Critics have lashed out at her, stating her campaign is being run on grounds of populism and that she is simply saying what the public wants to hear, rather than having a pragmatic approach to solving the challenges home and abroad. Another significant aspect would be the approach to international affairs and anchoring the UKs relations with the EU.

Foreign Policy Implications and Relations with the EU

Once a Remainer and now a strong Brexiteer, Trusss approaches embody a Reaganite style where UK continues to remain a faithful ally of America and a sharp critic of China and Russia. In terms of UKs relation with the EU, it is highly unlikely that Truss would not go ahead with Johnsons approach of no compromise with Brussels. She also seeks to scrap the remaining EU laws that the UK still holds adherence to, echoing the phrase: The destiny of the UK is in the hands of the people. Her spearheading of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill also prompted legal actions by the EU. She remains adamant that post-Brexit freedom would help in unleashing economic growth by stimulating opportunities that are UK-centric and for the British people. Trusss promise to scrap all of the remaining EU Laws by 2023 earlier than her contender has claimed to do so, remains a promise only on paper as the UK continues to struggle economically as its population mediates with high taxes and a frivolous job market, made only more complicated by Brexit. Trusss bid for the leadership has garnered popular support, especially among her ex-rivals such as Penny Mordaunt and others within the tory camp, which is largely seen to be Eurosceptic, a sharp contrast to how the majority of the Brits is feeling at the moment.

On issues such as Russia-Ukraine War and China, Truss maintains that the UKs stance on the matter would remain the same and that the UK would not directly get involved in the war. She, like her rival, has echoed the chants of an increased defence expenditure, to avert any possible future Russian aggression on its soil or that of its NATO allies, only to be overshadowed by a proper blueprint to achieve the same. On the issue of China, Liz Truss appears to be hard on China and its ways and measures, calling for a clampdown on the Chinese tech companies such as TikTok, in her stance of regulating tech companies hailing from authoritarian regimes. She also lashed out at Sunak, for trying hard to broker an economic deal with China. In contrast, her present actions and views appear outlandish, given her role in helping to set up the Confucius Institutes in the UK. Liz Truss oversaw the signing of a memorandum of understanding between University College Londons education faculty and Hanban, a wing of Chinas education ministry in 2014. She was serving as the education secretary at that time. In the wake of the China-Taiwan Crisis, Truss called the Chinese actions of military drills near Taiwan to be inflammatory and called for immediate de-escalation, commenting that Chinas invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic.

Rallying on popular support for her stand on tax cuts, the economy and the Ukraine War, among others, Truss, has a very high chance of being the next PM, hailed as a true conservative by her party peers. What remains to be seen however is for how long can Truss hold onto the strings of the conservative party leadership, which in the recent decade has often been in a crisis and conflict regarding the right person to lead them forward?

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Race to 10 Downing Street : How the next Reaganite could further deter relations with the EU Le Taurillon - thenewfederalist.eu

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The return of Sarah Palin: how the Tea Party star is plotting a comeback – The Telegraph

Posted: at 6:36 pm

Ms Koranda, another former Palin fan, chimed in. She's a media whore, she said. I think she's gonna attract such a circus, shes not gonna be able to get any work done, she added, asking: Is she in it for herself, or for Alaska?

Ms Palin has argued her fame would be an asset for a state that has a smaller population than Merseyside. As Alaskas sole congresswoman, she said, she could pick up the phone and call any reporter and be on any show if I wanted to, and it would be all about Alaska.

She has hit back, too, at what she called an inaccurate narrative that she left Alaska behind.

At one campaign event, she bemoaned spending $140 to fuel her truck due to rampant inflation and joked about a recent collision with a moose as proof she understands the concerns of ordinary Alaskans.

That's the sign of a true Alaskan - I took a moose out of season, she quipped.

A large Sarah for Alaska billboard sits along the secluded gravel drive that leads to her lakefront home in Wasilla.

Just visible beyond a tall brown fence is the large satellite dish which serves Ms Palins home TV studio.

On a recent visit, The Telegraph spotted very few pro-Palin campaign signs around the town, but some residents remain fiercely protective over their famous neighbour.

One nearby resident, who declined to be named, offered a strong defence of Ms Palin whom she argued was the victim of smear campaigns.

Another described how, despite her celebrity status, she still frequents a local Mexican restaurant in town.

Ms Palin, long mocked for her gaffes - memorably mixing up North and South Korea, and failing to name a single newspaper she reads - has also framed herself as the victim of Americas liberal media.

After years of tabloid-worthy family dramas and political scandals, she said she has nothing left to lose in reviving her political career. What more can they say? she told Fox News.

An earlier endorser of Mr Trump, the former president returned the favour last month by holding a rally for Ms Palin in Alaskas largest city, Anchorage.

Long seen as a forerunner to Trumpism with her rogue one-liners - waterboarding is how we baptise terrorists - and rage-filled populism, Mr Trumps endorsement has prompted speculation he could name Ms Palin as his running mate for a potential 2024 presidential bid. Ms Palin herself has said she is open to the idea.

The return of Sarah Palin: how the Tea Party star is plotting a comeback - The Telegraph

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Predicting the Future of Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Columbia University

Posted: at 6:34 pm

With the U.S. federal government finally putting in place a major program to stimulate the decarbonization of our energy economy, news analysis has turned to the practical problems of the transition from fossil fuels. Some of us have been focused on those practical problems for a long time. Our economy and our households are addicted to fossil fuels. The transition away from that addiction will take a generation: it is a matter of decades, not days, weeks, months, or even years. The process began before last weeks anti-inflation bill and would have continued with or without the bill. But now, the process is accelerated by an act of the government of the worlds largest economy.

Typical of the skeptical reporting on the federal climate bill was a story filed by Katherine Blunt and Phred Dvorak in the Wall Street Journal, where they observed that:

The landmark climate bill passed by Congress on Friday aims to reduce carbon emissions with subsidies for speeding the build-out of renewable-energy projects. Success in meeting its emissions goals will depend on how quickly that build-out happens. Despite the new financial support for renewable technologies, the industry faces supply-chain snarls, logjams in securing project approvals and challenges in constructing new high-voltage power lines and large-scale batteries to support an unprecedented build-out of wind and solar farms.

The assumptions in this piece are that technology will stand still and massive renewable energy projects will depend on the electric grid and foreign manufacturing. Perhaps, but this $370 billion must be added to the trillion-dollar infrastructure bill and the federal governments pivot to green purchasing and operations. These are powerful incentives that will stimulate technological innovation and local government use of eminent domain powers. In addition, large-scale projects may be displaced by consumer products that enable households to decarbonize and partially or completely disconnect from the electrical grid.

We should assume that the technology of renewable energy will advance in the coming decades, just as communication and computing advanced over the past half-century. What if solar cells become smaller, more efficient, and integrated into normal windows? What if a solar array costs $500 instead of $15,000 and includes the replacement of a few of your homes windows? What if batteries are no longer the size of your big screen TV but the size of your laptop? What if they cost $300 instead of $3,000? Mainframe computers the size of a suburban living room once cost millions of dollars and had less computing power than your smartphone. A generation ago, we watched movies on video cassettes and cable TV. The technology of renewable energy is now being developed by some of the smartest people on the planet. Who knows what they may come up with?

As for supply chains, President Biden recently signed the bipartisan Chip Act, and as reported by the New York Times Shira Ovide:

The United States has authorized $280 billion in taxpayer money to subsidize rich computer chip companies and invest in technology research for the sake of keeping America strong and innovative. President Biden on Tuesday signed the law, officially known as the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, calling it an investment in America itself. If this law does what its many backers in government and private industry hope, the U.S. will have more control over the future of essential computer chips and have a hedge if China grows more hostile toward Taiwan, a U.S. ally. The law also aims to keep America on the cutting edge of technology by putting more government support into research.

Since China subsidizes its high-tech businesses, these federal funds will level the competitive playing field and, as automation advances, will return some manufacturing to the United States. Supply chains are rapidly becoming supply webs as companies learn to navigate disruptions in the global economy. In sum, predicting the precise pace of decarbonization is impossible due to a rapidly changing and highly dynamic organizational and technological environment.

It will take time and will require a partnership between the public and private sectors, but the main locus of decarbonization activity will be in the private sector. This is because energy, while regulated and intertwined with lots of rules and subsidies, is a private business in most parts of the world. While climate activists supported the inflation reduction bill as the best climate bill they could obtain given the current political environment, they consider this new federal effort insufficient. Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenport reported on this in the New York Times on August 12 and wrote that that:

For the septuagenarian lawmakers who wrote the historic climate bill that Congress passed on Friday, and the 79-year-old president who is about to sign it into law, the measure represents a once in a generation victory. But younger Democrats and climate activists crave more. They look at the bill as a down payment, and they worry a complacent electorate will believe Washington has at last solved climate change when in fact scientists warn it has only taken the first necessary steps. This bill is not the bill that my generation deserves and needs to fully avert climate catastrophe, but it is the one that we can pass, given how much power we have at this moment, said Varshini Prakash, 29, who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a youth-led climate activism group.

While I also would have preferred a larger-scale effort from the federal government, my preference is based on an analysis of the risks posed by climate change when compared to the risk of over-subsidizing the private sector. I think we need to create an atmosphere of certainty for the green economy to build on the tremendous and growing momentum that already exists for renewable energy. These funds, and the policy thrust they represent, reinforce a trend already in place and stimulate confidence in the transition to renewable energy. Three hundred and seventy billion dollars is real money that cant be ignored. But government and public policy were never going to deliver a renewable resource-based economythat action will take place in the private sector. This bill may be sufficient to stimulate the private actions needed. If its not, more can be added later.

Our addiction to energy is not going to be cured by government. And if the choice is between fossil fuel-based energy and no energy, we will all use fossil fuels. The fossil fuel interests know that and do their best to force us to contemplate that trade-off. They are not the only businesses that are good at manipulating consumers. Tobacco interests have long perfected taking advantage of consumer addiction. Despite well over half a century of settled science about the harm of smoking, there are one billion smokers in the world, and last year, seven million people died from this addiction. So, I do not underestimate the fossil fuel industrys potential for future harm. Its a shame because if they would redefine themselves as energy companies and deliver renewable energy, they could avoid bankruptcy. Unlike smoking, which is far from a necessity, our very economy and way of life depend on energy. Most of the GDP is not in the energy business, but nearly all businesses rely on energy. Therefore, the economic power of Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft must be mobilized behind the goal of less expensive, more predictably priced, more reliable, and cleaner energy. Let them duke it out with ExxonMobil. The U.S. government is a small part of the total picture here, so lets understand that a problem as massive as climate change requires much more than U.S. government policy and money to address. Our government must provide leadership, but even if our economy were completely free of greenhouse gasses, other nations must also decarbonize.

No one really knows how to maintain our economic well-being while transitioning to a new energy system. It is arrogance and folly to pretend that anyone knows how to do this. Im reminded a little of a meeting I attended in EPA shortly after Superfund was enacted in December of 1980. Someone at the meeting was talking about how great it was that we had all this money and could now clean up Americas toxic waste sites. An engineer spoke up and mentioned that we really didnt know how to clean up a contaminated site, we were uncertain about the costs of site clean-up, and we would need to determine when to stop cleaning and consider the job done. Someone else then said, Yeah: How clean is clean? A question many of us had never thought of until that moment. Greenhouse gas pollution is technically simpler than toxic waste but economically more difficult to attack. Modelling and predicting the impact of public policy on the pace of pollution reduction requires analysts to make a huge number of assumptions about the pace of economic, technological, and behavioral change. We should be skeptical about these predictions and humble about our ability to predict the future of greenhouse gas pollution on this planet.

Humility does not seem to invade the mindset of the experts informing Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenports reporting on reaction to the climate bill. According to their piece:

scientists say the United States needs to do more. It must stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2050, which the bill wont achieve [emphasis added] To reach his 2030 goal [of 50% emission cuts], Mr. Biden would still have to impose new regulations on emissions from power plants, vehicle tailpipes and methane leaks from oil and gas wells. State and local governments would have to set new standards to compel the rapid adoption of electric cars, wind and solar powered electricity, and energy efficient buildings to make up the last percentage points.

Maybe, but maybe not. I am always amazed by the confidence and certainty expressed by some climate experts. The scale and uncertainty of the problem and possible solutions need to be understood. As should the role of public policy itself. Public policy is not rational, it does not work like the scientific method. It is incremental: remedial, serial, and partial. It does not solve problems, but makes them less bad. The Clean Air Act of 1970 made Americas air far cleaner today than it was when the bill was passed. Air pollution is less bad, but not gone. The climate problem will never be solved, but I believe humanity will make it less bad and preserve the planet for future generations. I dont know if well achieve that goal by 2050. I base my belief on optimism and history, but it is not a prediction, and I could be very wrong.

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Predicting the Future of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Columbia University

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JD.com Ranks 46th on 2022 Fortune Global 500 – Yahoo Finance

Posted: at 6:34 pm

By Exec Edge Editorial Staff

Chinese E-commerce giant JD.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: JD) has broken through to the top 50 Fortune Global 500 companies, coming in at number 46 in Fortune magazines annual ranking of the biggest public companies in the world.

Rising another 13 places from number 59 last year, this marked the sixth year the company has landed on the list since it became the first Chinese internet company to do so in 2016.

Fortune noted JD.coms enormous customer base of 570 million across the globe and revenue of $147.5 billion in 2021 an increase of 27.6 percent from 2020 in its entry for the revenues-based annual ranking. Since debuting on the list at number 366 JD.com has been growing at an increasingly rapid pace, adapting with finesse to technological, environmental and economic changes that have occured in recent years.

Over the past six years, JD.com has undergone a transformation. Operating as a successful e-commerce business for the better part of the past two decades, through heavy investment in research and development and a shift in strategy it has evolved into a supply chain-based technology and service provider.

The company performed resiliently through the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to its strong supply chain capabilities, and has used this to emphasize its ability to contribute to society and the real economy.

Founded by Richard Liu who held the position of CEO until April 2022, JD.com was unique in utilizing purpose and values to drive its company forward long before it was widely known to strengthen a business. Liu began the business in 1998 as a stall selling electronics within Zhongguancun, a tech hub in northwest Beijing, refusing to haggle but guaranteeing all of the products in his stall were authentic and high-quality.

The sentiment was divergent from the consumer market in China at the time where trust was low and counterfeits were rampant, but proved to be a successful strategy for Liu. In five years he had moved up and out of Zhongguancun, turning his business into a chain of electronics stores in multiple cities across China.

Story continues

It was only in 2003 when the SARS epidemic in China caused similar restrictions and lockdowns that Covid-19 has in recent years that Liu first began selling his products online. Within a year, he had made the decision to close all of his brick and mortar stores and move operations online exclusively.

Today, JDs product offerings have expanded to Amazon-like proportions, selling everything from groceries in under an hour to luxury goods via a white glove service.

The company went public on the Nasdaq in 2014 and completed a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020. It has also spawned several subsidiaries including a pharmaceuticals and healthcare branch, JD Health, that went public on the HKEX in 2020, and its logistics business JD Logistics debut on the HKEX in 2021.

In 2020, Richard Liu updated JD.coms mission to be powered by technology for a more productive and sustainable world. The company positions itself as a new type of real economy enterprise that possesses both the attributes of the real economy in its DNA including its logistics infrastructures and more, and the technologies and know-hows to serve the digital transformation of tangible businesses.

JD.com currently has over 10 million individual SKUs and an inventory turnover of roughly 30 days. While online retail is still the lifeblood of the company, over the past few years it has been expanding its omnichannel capabilities, returning to its brick-and-mortar roots and opening over 10,000 physical stores across China. It has also opened its products supply chains to millions of physical stores in over 300 cities and partnered with more than 150,000 offline stores for on-demand delivery services in less than an hour.

JD.com has collaborated with over 370 additional supermarkets including Walmart and Yonghui, totaling over 34,000 stores and three million SKUs. In Walmarts case, the US-based company has set up their online shopping portals on JD.com and adopted crowdsourced delivery services powered by Dada Group, a JD-backed on-demand delivery platform.

Chinese Resource Vanguard, one of Chinas largest retail chains, adopted the Dada Group program in over 1,800 of their retail chains and by September of 2021 had seen a fourfold increase of transaction volume when compared with six months prior. During the Singles Day(November 11) Grand Promotion in 2021, JD.com further collaborated with over 600 China Resource Vanguard stores, leveraging their on-demand delivery and retail platform to help it achieve a growth of over 400 percent year over year in transaction volume.

The power of JD.coms retail brand is supported by its network of warehouses, a chain of over 1,400 that span almost the entire Chinese mainland. The warehouses combined floor area totals over 25 million square meters, and JD Logistics also manages roughly 50,000 transportation lines and six specialized logistics networks for cold-chain, cross-border, last-mile deliveries amongst others.

This extensive network means that consumers in China can expect the same or next-day delivery service from JD.com. They are able to do so in 94 percent of counties and 84 percent of towns and villages, and are continuously working to grow these percentages. Founder Liu Qiangdong was raised in one of Chinas many rural villages and has placed a strong emphasis on making rural revitalization efforts a part of the companys business operation.

The company has also been gearing up its international logistics networks. It currently runs close to 80 bonded warehouses and overseas warehouses, and its network spans nearly 230 countries and regions. It has also opened automated warehouses in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and the Netherlands, and has launched cargo flights from China to Thailand, the United States, United Kingdom and more.

JD.coms proliferation in logistics and products are largely made possible by its decision to invest heavily in technology. Estimates put the companys spending over the last five years at nearly $12 billion toward research and development. JD.com has applied its achievements in R&D to real-world industries, providing digitally intelligent solutions in a variety of fields, including retail, logistics, supply chain, city planning and more.

Additionally, JD.coms investment in cloud computing and technology have aided its retail business in handling massive surges in traffic caused by the blockbuster sales events China has become known for such as JD.coms own 618 Grand Promotion, Singles Day, and the nearly 70 billion hits on its app during Chinas Spring Festival Gala Show on national TV early this year. Externally, it is providing services for more than 80 cities, 800 financial institutions, 1,800 large-scale enterprises and over 1.95 million SMEs.

Combined, the three networks of products, warehouses and cloud computing that JD has been weaving over the years enabled its ascent up the Fortune Global 500 list. A strong focus on purpose has seen the company through times of uncertainty and powered it forward toward its goal of contributing to societys higher efficiency and development.

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JD.com Ranks 46th on 2022 Fortune Global 500 - Yahoo Finance

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Minister Wilkinson Releases New Report Showing the Impacts of Climate Change and Necessity of Climate Adaptation in Ontario – Canada NewsWire

Posted: at 6:34 pm

OTTAWA, ON, Aug. 15, 2022 /CNW/ - Across Ontario, Canadians are feeling the impacts of climate change in their communities and on their livelihoods. That is why today, the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources, announced the release of the Ontario Chapter of the Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Reportto help inform and support adaptation to climate change in Ontario.

According to the report, temperatures are increasing in the province, with the greatest warming observed in Northern Ontario and the largest increases occurring in the winter. With further warming, heat waves are projected to become more frequent. Annual precipitation is projected to increase along with extreme precipitation events, resulting in increased risk of flooding. Lake levels in the Great Lakes have been highly variable, experiencing both record lows and extreme highs. These changes are affecting Ontario's communities, environment and economy.

This new chapter also highlights the wide range of climate impacts that Ontario is facing and how the province is adapting. It reveals that Ontario's infrastructure is vulnerable to climate change and that nature-based solutions help address climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Impacts on biodiversity are magnified through the cumulative effects of climate change, habitat loss, urbanization, pollution and other threats. In the Great Lakes Basin, adaptive management is key for addressing climate change impacts, and adaptation measures improve forest health, carbon storage and biodiversity.

Climate change brings both threats and opportunities to Ontario agriculture and food systems, while existing human health inequities will be worsened by climate change. The chapter also concludes that while adaptation is occurring, progress remains limited.

The report is a part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action, Canada's National Knowledge Assessment of how and why Canada's climate is changing, the impacts of these changes and how we are adapting. The assessment reports raise awareness and understanding of the key issues facing our country and provide information to support sound adaptation decisions and actions. The Government of Canada is also working with partners in Ontario and across the country on the development of the country's first National Adaptation Strategy, a whole-of-society blueprint for coordinated action to ensure communities and Canadians are prepared for the impacts of climate change.

By ensuring people in Ontariohave access to credible, evidence-based information, this resource will enable them to make more informed decisions to prepare for, and respond to, climate change impacts.

A webinar on August 17will follow the official release of the Ontario Chapter of the Regional Perspectives Report. Hear directly from the authors about how climate change is affecting Ontario and how communities and sectors are increasingly taking action to adapt.

Quotes

"Today's report confirms that Ontario, like every region of Canada, is facing significant climate challenges, from exacerbated health inequities to increasingly at-risk infrastructure. That is why our government is examining the regional effects of our changing climate: to better enable informed decision-making to prepare for, and respond to, climate impacts. With these reports, we are ensuring that Canadians have access to credible, evidence-based information, information that will go on to inform their choices as well as our own as we develop Canada's first National Adaptation Strategy."

The Honourable Jonathan WilkinsonMinister of Natural Resources

"Across Ontario, communities are facing challenges from a changing climate. Important evidence-based information, such as in this report, can help communities prepare. We are working with partners to develop Canada's first National Adaptation Strategy. The Strategy will help support whole-of-society action to address and better prepare for the impacts of a changing climate including communities, the natural environment and the economy. We can and we must do both mitigation and adaptation play both offence and defence for a complete effort."

The Honourable StevenGuilbeaultMinister of Environment and Climate Change

"Climate change is top of mind for rural communities in Ontario and across Canada. Ontarians are counting on us to make sound decisions based on the credible, evidence-based science of our country's climate experts. The insights from this report will help Ontario's communities be more prepared to take action against the continued effects of climate change and protect Ontario's vulnerable infrastructure, including the Great Lakes."

The Honourable Gudie HutchingsMinister of Rural Economic Development

"Communities across Canada, including in Ontario, are experiencing more frequent and severe weather events due to climate change. The release of this provincial chapter underlines how important it is for climate change adaptation and emergency management efforts to be implemented together and requires close co-operation across all orders of government, industry and individuals. The Government of Canada is championing these efforts through the development of the National Adaptation Strategy and the delivery of the Emergency Management Strategy for Canada. The evidence from this report will continue to help inform our efforts as we work together to anticipate, mitigate and recover from the impacts of climate change."

The Honourable Bill BlairPresident of the Queen's Privy Council and Minister of Emergency Preparedness

"Ontario is a leader in Canada when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and nature-based solutions through programs like the Greenlands Conservation Partnership Program. We've taken meaningful action to prepare for the impacts of climate change by undertaking the first Provincial Climate Change Impact Assessment, using the best available science and data. Results from the multi-sector assessment will help Indigenous communities, municipalities, businesses and local decision-makers make informed choices to adapt to climate change while building a strong economy."

The Honourable David PicciniMinister of the Environment, Conservation and Parks

Associated links

Register for the Webinar on August 17Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues ReportCanada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Clean Air, Strong EconomyMap of Adaptation ActionsCanada's National Adaptation Strategy

SOURCE Natural Resources Canada

For further information: Contacts: Natural Resources Canada, Media Relations, 343-292-6100, [emailprotected]; Keean Nembhard, Press Secretary, Office of the Minister of Natural Resources, 613-323-7892, [emailprotected]; Environment and Climate Change Canada, Media Relations, 819-938-3338 or 1-844-836-7799 (toll-free), [emailprotected]; Kaitlin Power, Press Secretary, Office of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, 819-230-1557, [emailprotected]

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Minister Wilkinson Releases New Report Showing the Impacts of Climate Change and Necessity of Climate Adaptation in Ontario - Canada NewsWire

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Do Armenians have a future as an independent nation? Part 4 – Armenian Weekly

Posted: at 6:34 pm

Celebrations on the streets of Yerevan after the declaration of independence (Sept. 21, 1991)

Authors Note: Continuing on with the theme of education, the fourth installment focuses on the the need to build an economy based on education, research and innovation to tap into the global value chain as a sustainable path for the countrys future. This will require strong will, detailed planning, sacrifice and transparency and accountability, all in short supply in the current realities of the Armenian nation. We either sit idly by and become a Turkish vilayet, as dreamed by the current collaborator regime, or be a nation worthy of having our own country, one that meaningfully contributes to the world.

Armenia is fortunate to have had a strong educational and scientific basis from the Soviet era. Unfortunately, much of this infrastructure has not been maintained, updated or upgraded. As a result, universities use outdated curricula, majors and concentrations, textbooks and faculty to train the next generation. Sprinkle in the existing corruption due to low salaries and anemic support, crony appointees who lack proper vision and/or world class expertise to plan and implement the future of higher education in the country, and you end up with the currently ranked institutions.

What are we to do? This is no question that Armenia has traveled an arduous path since her independence, having survived an earthquake, a forced war to stand up for her kin, closed borders and the ensuing post-Soviet chaos and consolidation of wealth and resources.

During this period, Armenia has emerged as a regional hub for Information and Communication Technology (ICT), relying on its human capital and the strong educational traditions and academic and commercial institutions of the Soviet era. Notable intellectual and economic nodes of excellence, such as Engineering City, have been designed and implemented in Armenia to connect Armenia to global value chains (GVCs) in the engineering space. Developing the Armenian National Engineering Laboratory (ANEL) for all universities engaged in training engineers in Armenia was the first successful step to inspire both private and public sector policy makers.

Building on the success of the Engineering City program and similar efforts and capitalizing on the Armenian human capital both within the country and throughout the Diaspora, we envision the implementation of an extended knowledge economy, encompassing research and development in mathematical, physical, environmental and life sciences, with special focus on interdisciplinary areas, as the growth areas of the future. The scientific core has existed in Armenia, and there is significant innovation potential. But the intermediate steps and the associated infrastructure to realize those innovations and connect them to the global value chain are missing.

An approach based on developing science and innovation hubs with perpetual funding sources and faculty endowments to facilitate the infusion of world class talent will lead to innovation and productivity and will lay the foundation to train the workforce that Armenia needs to compete and participate in the Global Value Chains (GVC) of tomorrow. The future of high technology is uncertain, because it evolves by disruptive discoveries. One of the key hallmarks of extractive political and economic systems has been their resistance to disruptive innovation, something that shakes the core of their extractive economic model and the stranglehold on key economic opportunities. Yet, this is exactly what Armenia needs to engage in, if it has any chance of a brighter future. In order to prepare a growing economy for participation in the GVC, it is far more advantageous to prepare a workforce, capable of exploiting opportunities, rather than trying to predict the exact nature and patterns of disruption that are likely to arise. Remarkably, a disproportionate fraction of these disruptive ideas relies on a fundamental set of skills rooted in the basic fundamental sciences and their interactions to create a reality that is bigger than the sum of its components. Therefore, Armenia must create critical capacity in these skills, so that the future workforce can both create and cope with disruptions. These skills include quantitative thinking, experimental skills, mathematical, physical and biological modeling, biomedical sciences and engineering, computational and data sciences, high-performance computation and advanced computer sciences, and incorporating state-of-the-art developments from research into applications and innovations as the final stop.

Armenia possesses the fundamental scientific knowledge base but lacks the infrastructure and the intermediate steps between basic research, technological development and implementation of that knowledge base into the economic engine in order to participate in the GVC and transform itself into a competitive country. For a small nation such as Armenia, there will be dividends from the knowledge-based economy only when the country acknowledges the need to and invests in the technological trends of tomorrow and becomes nimble and resourceful enough to adjust to changes in the global economy.

Therefore, scientific and innovation centers must be selected for:

Multi-disciplinary sciences with interactions straddling the borders of different scientific fields have been the source of much of the worldwide innovation pipeline during the past decades. It has become abundantly clear that isolated hubs of excellence are no longer the driving force of the knowledge economy, and Armenia is no exception to this rule. Armenias segregated national academies governed by out-of-touch boards are not the answer to turn Armenia into a regional or world stage contributor in the next century. These academies and institutes work in a silo mentality, where turf protection is more important than collaboration, cooperation and joint pursuit of national interests. The time has come to do away with the models and kick science and innovation into a much higher gear. The goal is to adopt international best practices and a combination of parts from multidisciplinary sciences to create a sum that is much larger than its components. The idea of interconnected national laboratories for driving natural and social scientific advances for strengthening national infrastructure was initially developed in Germany (where it has evolved into todays Max Planck Institutes), followed by the US government-funded national laboratory model. It has since expanded to the rest of the world. We must bring such a model to Armenia.

To support the innovation at the science and innovation centers, Armenia must establish a perpetual endowment fund to fuel the work. This endowment can start at the 100-150 million USD range and be supplemented over time with cash infusion from a variety of sources. The fund can be increased by contributions from the Armenian, Russian, US and French governments and private sectors. The large Diasporan networks in both countries must mobilize in support of this effort. The 2020 Artsakh War has left Armenias flanks open, and there are potentially relatively receptive governments in both countries that can be motivated to support such a cause. It will not be easy, nor will it be simple. But it must be accomplished; no excuses or justifications to avoid the needed heavy lifting. Now that the US Congress has acknowledged the Armenian Genocide, advocacy groups should set their sights on supporting transformative investments in Armenia. Advocacy efforts have run the gamut of combative relationships to lockstep movements with the lobbying governments. This is neither an indictment nor unique to Armenian advocacy entities. However, all must agree to commit fully to Armenias survival and future growth. This must be a red line that cannot be crossed, regardless of tactical and approach differences.

Infrastructure and funding are of little use without the human capital. The Armenian nation must commit to funding 100 endowed STEM chairs over a five-year period to attract the best possible minds to innovate and help train the next generation of leaders and scientists and innovators. This will be a $100 million USD investment to be supported by the Diaspora and other resources. The developed world is producing talent at an unseen pace, attracting talent from the world over, eager to receive state-of-the art training. However, the developed world cannot absorb these graduates into innovative roles at the rate that it produces them. Armenia can offer paid positions with research funding to attract such talent. Armenia needs to attract the best innovative minds that it can, who need not be Armenian, but willing to work and produce in Armenia. The kind and hospitable nature of the Armenian people will be an important asset to make them feel at home and integrate them into society. Structures must be put in place, such as five-year contracts, to be renewed upon accomplishing set milestones, to incentivize performance and not provide tenure shelter. While this effort must do all it can to attract talented Armenian candidates from Armenia and the Diaspora, it is unlikely that there will be enough Armenian candidates for such positions with the right training and background. Therefore, opening our doors to a wider source will serve the best interests of the nation, both in the short and long-term.

While the initiation of this innovation campaign is essential for Armenia, it will not be easy, even with all resources in place. Armenia lacks the systems-level expertise or the capacity to undertake such a task. Proper engagement of resources is essential. The Diaspora has provided and will continue to provide financial support to Armenia, something that it has been primarily relegated to in the past 30 years, but it can be a much greater resource if Armenia ever chooses to engage it fully. Thus far, efforts have been more lip service and maintenance of a safe distance, but if the Armenian political elite are ever to right the ship, they need to meaningfully engage the Diasporas immense potential. There is extensive expertise in academic, innovation, finance and entrepreneurial spaces in the Diaspora, but no realistic plan has been put in place to properly engage this resource. Empty platitudes and notions of bringing all Diasporans to Armenia are not plans; they are meaningless slogans. There needs to be a real structure in place to meaningfully engage Diasporan resources. This means bringing together a professional and non-volunteer team with Diasporan and non-Armenian experts to outline the overall approach, provide a detailed plan of action and put in place the right teams to execute. Most recently, the National Assembly held a four-hour meeting on the future of high tech in Armenia. With the exception of a few minutes of coherent thoughts here and there, the majority of the session was devoid of any real meaning or plans, other than repeating the same tired speeches, backed by no effort. It is quite possible that most speakers forgot what they talked about by the time they got home. The reflexive grandstanding with no discernable meaningful action has been a hallmark of Armenian leadership and authorities.

This is as helpful and unrealistic as expecting most Diasporans to move to Armenia. There will be a need for a meaningful number of Diasporans to move to Armenia to offer their expertise toward developing the nation. But, this will not materialize by the few who have taken it upon themselves to move there and provide their services. Former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld popularized the concept of known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. The Armenian political elite both now or before, through their actions, have shown little knowledge of this concept.

Diasporans have also been at fault by being content with their cash cow role and not willing their clout and expertise onto the leadership in Armenia to affect positive change. Showing up to galas and taking selfies with the powers that be have satisfied their needs by and large. Fear of taking difficult but needed/right stances, out of potential loss in pecking order or status with respective governments, has been another failing hallmark of the Diaspora. Armenia is undergoing unprecedented instability and upheaval, yet little is heard from the Diasporan elites, as they are playing the waiting game to see how best to hedge their bets, even as we are losing Artsakh and potentially Syunik in the near future. Diasporan organizations have been slow to adapt to the current times, treading in their comfort zone wheels and failing to engage meaningfully with Armenia or new Diasporans from Armenia. There has been a palpable separation between the traditional Diasporans and those arriving from Armenia, thankfully subsiding with the new generation. This was also in place when Middle Eastern Diasporans arrived in the US in the 70s and onward. Their integration took some time, but it was easier than those with Armenians from Armenia. There were more similarities among those groups than with Armenians from Armenia. Again, this is not unique to us, as Israel has experienced and is experiencing very similar rifts between its population and the immigrating Jews from the former Soviet Union. The divergent value systems and life experiences have been significant barriers for meaningful integration. It is fair to say that a significant number of Diasporan professionals stay away from Diasporan structures of all stripes and sides, because of their archaic and unprofessional approach. While these institutions have done significant and valuable work, they have been slow to adapt, evolve, embrace new realities and offer up-to-date solutions to the problems facing Armenia and the Diaspora. While the Armenian government bears the brunt of its inaction to properly outline a vision to engage the Diaspora and leverage its resources, Diasporans have not really stepped out of their comfort zone either.

Wealthy oligarchs must also be part of the mentioned transformation effort. The current leadership could have negotiated a deal with the oligarch class to bring order into the system over time, with specific milestones, such as reforming taxation of their assets and income, establishing voluntary contributions of funds by the oligarchs to a national endowment, setting up sunset dates on their less than desirable economic practices and other options to transfer the economy from its extractive form into a more inclusive form over a reasonable period. But, they used the concept of going after the corrupt elites as bait to social engineer the populace. They simply built relationships with some of the oligarchs and brought their own oligarchs back to the fore, essentially a rinse and repeat cycle. Establishment of a national endowment fund with at least one to two billion dollars would return 150 to 200 million USD per year, a respectable number for Armenia. This fund would allow the oligarch class to contribute a part of their wealth back to the nation, be held accountable in a conciliatory setting and set the stage for a gradual change from an extractive into an inclusive economic model. The fund would grow over time to provide the nation with rainy day funds and help offset key expenditures for a variety of needs, education or otherwise. Armenia is a tiny nation, where everyone knows and/or is related to everyone. An all-out hostile approach would not bode well with the fabric of the society, as we have seen by now. The mob mentality and the prevalent dichotomy in the nation precluded the development of any meaningful steps, instead focusing on zero sum games to appease the base.

While a highly literate nation, the Armenian nation has shown that it is no different than most other nations, where a large segment of the population lacks critical thinking capabilities to separate fact from fiction and is easily manipulated through social engineering and drawn into gossip and conspiracy theories with little evidence.

The 2020 Artsakh War brought about an unprecedented level of financial contribution by Armenians worldwide. While a significant effort that offers a glimpse into the financial muscle of the Armenian nation, it was simply a drop in the bucket, given its one-time nature in response to an extraordinary event. Now imagine how far along Armenia and Artsakh would be, had a meaningful recurring contribution been set up 20 or 25 years ago, with a vision, concrete systems-level plans, quality execution and strict accounting, accountability and transparency. Instead, we settled for a small-scale plan with the Armenia Fund, embroiled with controversies and mismanagement from the get-go. How do we go about instilling confidence in people who part with their hard-earned money in support of a good cause? The result is the paltry 10 to 20 million USD per year collected as part of the telethon. We wax and wane about the clout and financial might of the Diaspora, yet we show little seriousness in tapping this resource properly.

A cursory evaluation of the 31 largest Armenian Diaspora population centers accounts for 5.373 million Armenians, using best available data. A calculation of the number of Armenian households in each country (based on available census data) and using median household income per country puts the annual income of the Armenian Diaspora north of $40 billion USD (Table 2). This is a conservative estimate and yet a significant sum (more than three times the GDP of Armenia). Now, imagine if we can outline a vision for the future of Armenia and Artsakh, establish concrete systems-level plans, put in place a fund with quality execution and strict/best practices in accounting, accountability and transparency and ask the Diaspora to contribute 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent of its annual income to this fund recurringly. Doing so will help amass a war chest of 200 million to 600 million USD per year. Adding to this the contribution of Armenians from Armenia will bump up the annual sum to 220 million to 660 million USD. This fund can play a significant role in supporting the proposed innovation drive for Armenia and Artsakh and unburden state funds for other worthy efforts. Are we there? Absolutely not. Can we get there? Yes, but it will require significant effort, dedication, sacrifice and accountability, all in short supply both in Armenia and the Diaspora.

The financial contribution along with the professional expertise of the Diaspora must be harnessed and used wisely to lift Armenia and Artsakh.

Ara Nazarian is an associate professor of Orthopaedic Surgery at Harvard Medical School. He graduated from Tennessee Technological University with a degree in mechanical engineering, followed by graduate degrees from Boston University, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Harvard University. He has been involved in the Armenian community for over a decade, having served in a variety of capacities at the Hamazkayin Armenian Educational and Cultural Society, the Armenian Cultural and Educational Center, Armenian National Committee of America, St. Stephens Armenian Elementary School and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.

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Do Armenians have a future as an independent nation? Part 4 - Armenian Weekly

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Getting the diagnostics right 2 – BusinessWorld Online

Posted: at 6:34 pm

(Part 2)

To efficiently use scarce resources and political capital at this given time, we need a set of policy priorities that addresses the principal bottlenecks, or the binding constraints. The binding ones, if not addressed, would disrupt investments and growth. Thus, targeting the binding constraints has the largest effects and benefits. The first part of this paper (BusinessWorld, Aug. 7, 2022) presented the growth diagnostics approach, as elaborated by Ricardo Hausmann et al. (2005). For the concluding part, using the growth diagnostics framework, we do an exercise and examine the post-2022 elections challenges.

The first question to ask is: What constrains private investments in the Philippines?

Using the problem tree introduced by Hausmann et al., we test the first possible constraint: the high cost of finance. While debt sustainability is a key concern for the country, with the National Governments total outstanding debt levels reaching P12.76 trillion at the tail-end of the Duterte administration in April 2022, the absolute amount of debt in itself is not worrisome. What matters more is the countrys capacity to pay.

Philippine interest rates remain low, notwithstanding the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) recent series of increases in policy rate. The current rate is 3.25%, which is still below the current inflation rate of 6.4%.

While global interest rates are rising, the country is not dependent on external financing, with almost 70% of the National Governments debt portfolio being sourced from domestic borrowings. Thanks to fiscal reforms put in place during the Aquino and Duterte administrations, we have an investment-grade credit rating and can thus avail ourselves of lower interest rates.

With regard to the countrys capacity to pay, our debt ratios are not yet at unmanageable levels. Some express concern over our 63.5% debt-to-GDP ratio, as it leans towards the end of the threshold for emerging markets (according to Thomas Grennes et al., 2013). However, this paper was written way before the COVID-19 pandemic. Extraordinary circumstances or catastrophes necessitate much heavier spending and borrowing. Further, as Oliver Blanchard (2022), wrote, one cannot have some universal magic number to determine what is unsafe debt.

To illustrate, our current external debt service ratio (DSR), or the ratio of principal and interest payments to exports of goods and receipts from services and primary income, stood at 4.1% as of end-March 2022. Our DSR ratio in 1988, on the other hand, went as high as 56.9% before rescheduling.

We do acknowledge, however, that we must be careful. The current debt levels, long-term economic issues brought about by the pandemic, and the current issues brought about by the Ukraine-Russia war compel the government to be fiscally responsible and ensure that debt is being spent productively.

The discussion above eliminates the high cost of finance as a binding constraint to economic growth in the Philippines at this moment. We then review the possibility of low returns to economic activities. This rubric has two sub-categories: low appropriability and low returns to investment.

Under low appropriability, one macro risk we identify as a binding constraint is the countrys shrinking fiscal space. Although we have access to financing, given sound debt management and creditworthiness, the pandemic has increased borrowing and spending, causing an abnormally high deficit.

Thus, we have to gradually unwind the deficit spending, as the economy begins to recover. While we still have fiscal space, we cannot ignore the combination of an abnormal deficit and the pressure for high, productive spending for pandemic response, social protection, infrastructure, climate change, etc. And of course, we need to be prepared for lingering and future economic shocks which are becoming frequent. We need revenues to grow out of our debt and must avoid additional borrowing; this calls for a fiscal consolidation and resource mobilization plan, which the Department of Finance (DoF) is currently pursuing.

Other issues we identified as binding constraints under low appropriability include our inflation rate that has significantly exceeded government target (macro risk) and the weakness of our agriculture sector (micro risk). Inflation, which is at its highest since 2018, is caused mostly by supply shocks for fuel and food. The BSP has increased policy rates to address inflation expectations (quite aggressively, with a hike of 75 basis points), but addressing supply bottlenecks requires other solutions.

To address the supply bottlenecks, it is crucial to look at the agricultural sector and address the issue of inadequate food supply, which causes worrisome inflation. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that the agriculture sector only grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2022. The low productivity and high prices of agricultural commodities can be attributed to the high trade protection for commodities (such as out-of-quota rates for sugar, corn, coffee, pork, and chicken) and low budgetary support for agriculture and misallocation of resources.

Lastly, under the sub-category of low social returns (e.g., human capital), the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be a binding constraint for our economic growth. We have insufficient investments in health, making our health system extremely sensitive to surges in COVID-19 cases. The pandemic has deeply scarred our economy and aggravated other social concerns such as education, nutrition, care, and social protection. Universal healthcare is still far from becoming a reality for all Filipinos, and without a robust primary healthcare system, we cannot ensure decongestion of hospitals when COVID-19 cases rise. As the virus evolves, our health system is still very vulnerable to infection spikes. Surges and the corresponding tightening of restrictions would impede our economic recovery in our heavily service-based economy.

Given the four binding constraints identified above (shrinking fiscal space, high inflation, weak agriculture sector, and the COVID-19 pandemic), the policy reforms we need to prioritize are the following:

First, to address the shrinking fiscal space, we need smart taxes which result in efficiency (for example, taxing harmful products and thus addressing negative externalities). Complementing new taxes are improving tax administration and rationalizing spending by removing waste and combating corruption.

In line with this, we support the proposals to push for Packages 3 and 4 of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program of the previous administration, namely the Real Property Valuation Act and the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act. We also support the DoFs move to impose VAT on digital service providers. This, however, will only have an average annual revenue impact of P13.2 billion. A better source of revenue, as stated above, is an increase in excise taxes on sin products such as tobacco, e-cigarettes, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages.

To address inflation expectations, we expect the BSP to pursue an independent monetary policy that will stabilize prices without sacrificing growth. We need to provide targeted, time-bound subsidies to protect the vulnerable, such as lower-income families, public utility vehicle (PUV) drivers, and farmers, from shocks. But we must also ensure the supply of food, even if it means increasing imports, while also increasing budgetary support for farmers productivity. We need to increase productivity and efficiency and boost farmers income by consolidating land to achieve economies of scale, introducing technological innovation, and making farmers bankable by allowing agricultural assets as collateral.

Lastly, to address COVID-19, we must make the country pandemic resilient by pushing for the adoption of the health in all policies framework. In this regard, we emphasize that 80% of health problems can be attributed to socio-economic factors and individual behavior, not to health or pharmaceutical care.

The prevention of severe diseases and deaths from COVID-19 requires a whole-of-government, whole-of-society mobilization. Take the case of airborne transmission, which is the dominant mode of COVID-19 infection. Everyone, not just the Department of Health or medical professionals, is now responsible for ensuring adequate ventilation in public spaces, especially in crowded spaces such as malls, schools, and public transportation.

The pandemic also highlights the urgent need to implement universal healthcare and anchor it in primary healthcare. Here, the tasks are: Strengthen the institutions that handle public health emergencies. Have sustainable health financing generated from a combination of general taxes, health taxes, premiums or contributions, and reallocation of general appropriations. Boost social protection through targeted cash transfers, unemployment insurance, and similar subsidies.

The objective of the growth diagnostics is to outline priorities and give attention to the binding constraints (and thus not to be distracted by the non-binding constraints). In this manner, we conserve political capital and use it wisely. Some can argue, understandably, that other issues are notably missing. However, the binding constraints identified are interconnected with other issues. Removing the binding constraints would likewise alleviate the constraints in other areas. For example, the education crisis in the Philippines is partially caused by the disruption brought about by the pandemic and the shift from face to face to online schooling. Mitigating the impact of the pandemic and capacitating ourselves to handle future shocks will subsequently aid the safe return of students to face-to-face classes. This is not enough, and much more needs to be done to strengthen the education system, but at this very moment, addressing COVID-19 will relieve much of the burden faced by our students, teachers, and administrators.

On infrastructure, the government must maintain higher spending as a proportion of GDP. But this can be enabled by having broad fiscal space.

The four binding constraints are deeply intertwined. The pandemic stands out as a critical bottleneck, as our poor pandemic response (which has consistently landed us at the bottom of global pandemic resilience indices) has been constraining economic recovery for the past two years. Even though we have reopened our economy and cases have significantly dropped, pandemic-induced supply shocks are still one of the primary causes behind soaring prices. These supply shocks, particularly addressing food and fuel, will require bold fiscal, trade, and agriculture policies. The pandemic, the supply shocks and the attendant high prices have led to shrinking fiscal space. This requires new revenues. Otherwise, we face the danger of budget cuts on key programs and the reversal of important gains made in fiscal reforms in the past decade.

The authors belong to Action for Economic Reforms.

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Getting the diagnostics right 2 - BusinessWorld Online

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