Daily Archives: July 27, 2022

Walmart's second earnings warning of 2022 says a great deal about the financial stresses U.S. consumers are increasingly seeing amid sky-high inflation, a bear market in stocks, and lofty gas prices.

The world's largest retailer slashed its second-quarter and full-year profit outlooks late Monday owing to rampant inflation and a consumer retrenchment for discretionary items such as apparel. Walmart now sees full-year earnings tanking 11% to 13% compared to a prior estimate for a 1% drop.

"This pre-release humanized what's happening inside the household in terms of decision-making," Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "When we see consumers compromising wants to fund their needs because of inflation, that's a real human response."

Walmart shares plunged nearly 8% as of 12:40 p.m. during Tuesday's trading session. The ticker page was the most trafficked on Yahoo Finance, underscoring concerns about what the retailer's commentary means for the economy and markets in the near term.

Walmart isn't alone in experiencing a consumer going into financial preservation mode, and its earnings warning also placed pressure on competitors like Target and vendors in the mold of HanesBrands.

In a pre-announcement of its own, grill-maker Weber said it badly missed second-quarter earnings expectations this week. The quarter was so bad that Weber fired its CEO just like what happened at Gap several weeks ago.

We are taking decisive action to better position Weber to navigate historic macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary and supply chain pressures that are impacting consumer confidence, spending patterns, and margins, Weber's non-executive chair Kelly Rainko said in a statement.

Bath & Body Works also warned last week it would see earnings come in below consensus estimates as consumers reined in their spending.

A customer shops for nutrition products in a Walmart Supercenter on July 08, 2022, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Walmart's primary rival Target kicked off concerns about the retail sector's health in June with a shocking decision to liquidate massive amounts of slow-moving inventory and take a more cautious view on near-term profits.

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Other retailers such as RH, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Kohl's have issued more cautious outlooks as consumers shift spending away from discretionary categories.

"There is this pivot happening from discretionary and general merchandise into necessities," Wissink said. "The household is having to make discriminate decisions every single week about funding that inflation."

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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Walmart's earnings whiff 'humanized' the toll of inflation, analyst says - Yahoo Finance

After several calm days of her legal team calling character witnesses on her behalf and arguing for a lenient sentence, Brittney Griners next appearance in Russian court is likely to be a bit more intense.

The judge is expected to directly interrogate her on Wednesday, her attorney Maria Blagovolina told Yahoo Sports.

Griner faces up to 10 years in Russian prison after she flew into a Moscow airport in February and Russian customs officials allegedly found vape cartridges containing cannabis oil in her luggage. The WNBA star pleaded guilty in court on July 7, arguing that she did not intend to break the law and that she inadvertently brought the vape cartridges into the country because she packed in a hurry.

Experts anticipate that Griners testimony on Wednesday will echo her guilty plea. In a Russian criminal trial, it is common for both the judge and prosecutor to cross-examine the defendant.

Griner was escorted into court in handcuffs on Tuesday wearing a dark hoodie with the slogan Black lives for peace printed on the back. An Associated Press photographer captured Griner holding up images of supporters from the courtroom cage that is used to hold defendants during Russian criminal trials.

The slow-moving trial continued on Tuesday with Griners legal team summoning a Russian narcology expert. Mikhail Tetyushkin, according to reporters who were present in the courtroom, testified that, while marijuana is illegal in Russia, it is used as a medical treatment for athletes in various countries, including the United States.

Brittney Griner holds images standing in a cage at a court room prior to a hearing, in Khimki just outside Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, July 26, 2022. (AP)

At a previous hearing this month, Griners legal team presented the court with an American doctors letter saying that Griner had been prescribed medical marijuana to help her cope with chronic pain from injuries that she sustained during her basketball career. Defense attorneys have also summoned the team captain and team director from Griners Russian basketball club to vouch for her character.

Tom Firestone, the former resident legal adviser at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, told Yahoo Sports that Griners legal team is doing the right things under the circumstances but admitted that whether or not it will help is hard to say. Doctors notes and character witnesses may not result in a more lenient sentence for Griner if she is truly more political pawn than criminal defendant.

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Griners trial should be considered entirely theater, said Danielle Gilbert, a Dartmouth University foreign policy fellow who specializes in hostage diplomacy. Gilbert contends that the trial is only about Russias efforts to legitimize holding Griner while Russian officials seek to trade her in a prisoner exchange or for some other concession from the United States.

Griners imprisonment comes at a time of renewed hostility and distrust between the U.S. and Russia. Relations between the two nations are at their lowest point since the Cold War as a result of Russias assault on Ukraine and the U.S. joining Western allies in imposing economic sanctions.

The State Department has declared Griner to be wrongfully detained in Russia since May and has described negotiating a deal to secure her freedom as a top priority. Russian officials have bristled at that classification and have demanded that the U.S. respect the laws of their country.

On July 4, Griner sent President Biden a letter urging him to please dont forget about me and the other American detainees.

Im terrified I might be here forever, she wrote.

Efforts to negotiate Griners release may be complicated by Russias apparent asking price in a potential prisoner exchange. Russian state media outlets have linked Griners case to the fate of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who earned the nickname Merchant of Death after smuggling military-grade weapons to rogue leaders and insurgent groups across Africa and beyond.

Griner's attorneys have said they expect her trial to conclude by early August. Blagovolina told Yahoo Sports that she'll have a better idea when sentencing will occur after Wednesday's hearing.

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Brittney Griner poised to testify in Russian court - Yahoo Sports

It looks like Netflix's (NFLX) $200 million bet on "The Gray Man" might have paid off.

The action-packed film starring Ryan Gosling, Chris Evans, and Ana De Armas made its debut on the platform on Friday and quickly climbed its way to the top of the streamer's competitive top 10 list, despite lackluster reviews.

According to the company's latest global viewing report, subscribers watched more than 88 million hours of the movie within its first three days on the platform (July 22 - July 24).

For context, "Red Notice" clocked more than 364 million hours of viewing time in its first 28 days, while "Dont Look Up" amassed 360 million hours over that same time period. "The Gray Man" is expected to surpass those figures.

On the heels of those numbers, Netflix unveiled that a "Gray Man" sequel is already in development with Ryan Gosling and directing duo Joe and Anthony Russo all set to return.

A spin-off is also in the works from "Deadpool" screenwriters Paul Wernick and Rhett Reese.

"The Gray Man" (Courtesy: Netflix)

The movie's $200 million budget makes it the most expensive Netflix film to date.

"Movies are a one-time thing and some of these costs have gotten so large," Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Box Office Pro, told Yahoo Finance.

He described the current streaming landscape as a "Wild West," with platforms scrambling for top-tier content in order to keep up with their competitors.

"Budgets have been getting bigger," Robbins added. "The talent is there. It's just a question of which service is going to streamline the ability to put out quality product consistently and maintain subscribers."

Netflix, which shed nearly 1 million subscribers in Q2 and revealed softer-than-expected guidance for Q3, has battled an uptick in subscriber churn, or the number of customers that drop off the service.

That comes amid increased competition, with some industry watchers warning that a "streaming recession" is on the horizon. The original streaming giant plans to introduce an ad-supported tier next year to ease some of these woes.

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Another monetization opportunity is theatrical partnerships, which is why some industry watchers are questioning why "The Gray Man" did not receive a wider theatrical rollout.

Theatrical "gives you a window where you can make a lot of money on top of your subscriptions that could even pay your cost of some of these franchise tentpole titles," Jon Christian, EVP of digital media supply chain at Qvest, the largest media and entertainment-focused consulting company, previously told Yahoo Finance.

Although Netflix has played some original features in theaters, including 2018 breakout hit "Roma" and the more recent hits "The Irishman" and "Don't Look Up," those debuts (similar to "The Gray Man") had very short theatrical windows with much more limited releases.

"Those movies prove that the quality can be achieved, but they didn't have the same opportunity in theaters and could have done very well," Robbins said, anticipating that the integration of theatrical content with streaming will take time.

Alexandra is a Senior Entertainment and Food Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alliecanal8193 and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com

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Netflix's $200M 'The Gray Man' jumps in debut weekend, more than 88M hours viewed - Yahoo Finance

The year has been grueling to those holding almost every type of stock. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is down 16% year-to-date. The Nasdaq (^IXIC) is down 24% during that same period. Even the energy sector (XLE) the only one positive year-to-date has seen some of its gains evaporate recently.

In a new Yahoo Finance series, we're looking at some of the strategies experts recommend for how to navigate a bear market. To kick things off, we asked them what they think investors should do in an environment of tighter monetary policy and the threat of a recession.

We've seen some rally days over these last couple of weeks. Have the markets bottomed? What should investors do now?

The names that have really benefited since mid-June and the last Federal Reserve meeting have been the highest beta areas of the market. Some of the names that are sort of non-profitable technology would be a way to sum that up," Chris Pollard, Cowen managing director and head of market Strategy told Yahoo Finance Live.

"Those are the names that have had very pronounced movements and this is a way to sort of pair back on those exposures," P added. "I think using this time, this countertrend movement, to raise some cash and to provide yourself some optionality for what should be a push towards new lows, is what we would be advising here."

"The movement that weve seen over the last couple of weeks is unlikely to be durable upside," he noted.

When will capitulation happen?

"That's another way of saying, 'When do I come in and buy'. The real capitulation happens when people say 'don't even talk to me about this anymore,'" Interactive Brokers' chief strategist, Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance Live.

"We're still in a bear market and we still are seeing the Fed as a headwind," he said.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates at their next meeting next week. Tighter monetary policy has been a headwind for stocks as liquidity dries up.

"Don't be seduced" by "short, sharp, and ferocious bear market rallies," he advised.

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"You really don't get bottoms unless you see change in fiscal or monetary policy. I don't see that right now," he added.

Should investors hold onto stocks which have lost money?

Some experts say this depends on the company in question and the time horizon of the investor.

"The average bear market for the broader S&P 500 has taken roughly a year to bottom, but this can be much longer for individual equities (if they recover at all)," Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategy analyst at Baird told Yahoo Finance.

"Investors should ask themselves if the investing case for owning the stock has fundamentally changed and what the timeline for the invested money actually is," he added.

He also noted, "Market volatility and selloffs are simply part of the experience for the longer-term investor they occur with regularity but have always eventually ended with the market making new highs. Further, holding cash in an attempt to perfectly time the market bottom is a very risky proposition that can result in someone missing the rally that starts the new bull market."

Bearish scenario in stock market with bear figure in front of red price drop chart.

How do investors prepare their portfolio in light of an economic slowdown, or a recession?

"When we look at the percentage probabilities of whether we're going to tip over into a recession or whether we're just going to see a slowing growth environment. We give a slight edge to the slowing growth environment, simply because of the strength of the consumer coming into this," Kristen Bitterly, CIti Global Wealth head of North American investments told Yahoo Finance.

She recommends "creating some strong diversification within the portfolio across fixed income and equities. And really leaning into quality and being relatively conservative when it comes to stretching for yield, or extending yourself when it comes to credit," she added.

"I think there is a portfolio solution here as an investor, to remain fully invested, but ensuring that you have raised quality across equities and fixed income," said Bitterly.

Valuations have come down significantly.

Allspring Global Investments Senior Investment Strategist Brian Jacobsen told Yahoo Finance that one of the areas he likes is are consumer staples side and the technology.

"It's almost like a barbell approach here where there are a number of names that seem that they probably got thrown under the bus so to speak as people got a little bit more pessimistic thinking that the Fed might induce a recession as they try to tame inflation," he added.

Ines is a markets reporter covering equities. Follow her on Twitter at @ines_ferre

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What Wall Street strategists recommend doing in this bear market - Yahoo Finance

After more than a year of negotiations, Congress is on the cusp of passing a bill to alleviate the chip shortage and shore up U.S. competitiveness with China in part by giving $50 billion to the semiconductor industry.

The Senate voted 64-32 on Tuesday to end debate on the so-called CHIPS+ bill. This key step, which required 60 votes, now sets the stage for final passage in the coming days.

As the key procedural step got underway, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said the effort will help "one of the most important struggles of this century."

"The 21st century will be won or lost on the battleground of technological innovation," he added.

The cost of the bill is still being tabulated. A preliminary analysis from the Congressional Budget Office assesses the bill will incur roughly $79 billion in new spending over the coming decade. The bill will also redirect existing government money to the effort; a fuller accounting is expected to be released soon.

Lawmakers had previously passed a more ambitious version of the bill, and for a time legislators discussed a slimmed down version that would only include the direct inducements to the semiconductor industry. But in the end, lawmakers added a host of provisions back into the bill, ballooning the cost.

Here are the highlights from in the bill, which Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) recently told Yahoo Finance affects the costs for so many things for Americans from your cellphone, to your vacuum cleaner, to the government weapons systems.

President Joe Biden spoke with CEOs, labor leaders, and members of his economic team on Monday during a virtual meeting on semiconductors. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Tuesday's vote came after a full court press from the Biden administration to restart the effort after months of fruitless negotiations.

"America invented the semiconductor its time we bring it home, President Joe Biden said at a virtual White House event on Monday.

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo addressed criticism of the bill by stressing that it doesn't aim to make businesses more profitable but instead seeks to invest in the U.S. economy.

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From the private sector, a host of companies descended on Washington this week to push the bill over the finish line. Gary Cohn, the former Director of the National Economic Council and a current vice-chairman of IBM (IBM), said his company alone was bringing over 60 executives to meet with lawmakers.

The key provision in the bill is the $50 billion for chipmakers. Of those funds, $39 billion are earmarked to build, expand, or modernize domestic facilities for chip-making.

The remainder $11 billion is set aside for research and development. This money appears designed to alleviate a rift that had been developing between semiconductor companies like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Nvidia (NVDA), which had focused on designing but not manufacturing these crucial chips and were worried about being left out.

In any case, Intel (INTC) will be a key recipient of the funds. The company recently postponed the groundbreaking on an Ohio factory because of delays with the bill but promised to move ahead if it becomes law.

Other companies that appear likely to receive funds include Texas Instruments (TXN), Micron Technology (MU), Global Foundries (GFS), and Samsung.

Elsewhere in the bill, another $4.2 billion will help fund other areas of the industry like workforce training, defense initiatives, future innovation, and for the U.S. mobile broadband market. The money for broadband focuses on leap-ahead technologies, including an effort to promote non-Chinese 5G equipment manufacturing.

Another portion is a new Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit, which creates a new 25% tax benefit for semiconductor manufacturing. Its part of a suite of efforts that, advocates say, will allow the U.S. to catch up in the global semiconductor manufacturing race.

The U.S. role in semiconductor manufacturing has fallen from nearly 40% in 1990 to 12% today, according to a recent report from the Semiconductor Industry Association. The situation is even worse with the worlds most advanced logic semiconductors, 100% of which were manufactured overseas in 2019. The group has applauded progress on the bill.

President Joe Biden holds a semiconductor chip during a 2021 event at the White House. (REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst)

Daniel Clifton, head of Washington research at Strategas, told Yahoo Finance recently that many view semiconductors as "the new oil." If a nation can control oil and chips, you start to control the production of just about anything that's going to happen in the economy and we could see that that's where the long-term trend is, he said.

The bill is also set to restrict semiconductor companies' activities, banning new work in specific countries that present a national security threat to the United States. The language is clearly aimed at China, which has been moving to bolster its semiconductor industry, as well.

The provision is designed to ensure that China doesnt receive any benefits from the new U.S. government funds. We're not going to have to worry so much about the actions of an adversary, meaning China, when it comes to our supply of semiconductor chips, Sen. Kelly said.

On Monday, Biden also noted that the guardrails mean were not going to allow these companies to use these funds to buy back stock or issue dividends.

The bill also includes billions to beef up science training efforts to help the U.S. compete against China. In total, the National Science Foundation, the Department of Commerce, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology will divvy up $52 billion in funding increases over the coming years for initiatives aimed at shoring up U.S. competitiveness in areas like building a STEM workforce

The bipartisan effort has engendered opposition from a swath of Republicans but also one of Biden's own allies. Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT) called the bill a blank check "at a time when semiconductor companies are making tens of billions of dollars in profits and paying their executives exorbitant compensation packages."

He also savaged the "guardrails" in the package, noting that companies would still be able to outsource some jobs abroad and also use their profits to make stock buybacks if they want.

Despite opposition from Sanders and Republicans on Tuesday, lawmakers were able to nonetheless move to end debate, setting up a vote for likely final passage later this week.

The House of Representatives will then likely consider the bill before they adjourn Friday for their summer recess. Some conservative House Republicans are trying to stop it and have taken to calling it a fake China bill. However, House Minority Whip Rep. Steve Scalise who is charged with counting the votes seemed resigned that it could be headed to Biden's desk by the end of the week.

Ben Werschkul is a writer and producer for Yahoo Finance in Washington, DC.

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Chips bill advances in Senate Here's what's in the $79B legislation - Yahoo Finance

NFL training camp season is officially here, and with come a cavalcade of news both good and bad.

Veterans reported to camp Tuesday, which kicks off the beginning of the last phase before the 2022 NFL season begins on Sept. 8 with the Buffalo Bills taking on the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

Here is a brief breakdown of the biggest news and updates from around the league.

[Set, hut, hike! Create or join a fantasy football league now!]

The biggest news coming out of 49ers camp Tuesday revolves around the future of two of their young stars. Dynamic wideout Deebo Samuel reported for the first day of practice and won't hold out after his tumultuous offseason. As for quarterback Trey Lance, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said the team "have moved on to Trey" following a conversation with himself, general manager John Lynch and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco gave Garoppolo permission to find a trade partner.

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NFL training camp 2022 tracker: 49ers 'have moved on to Trey [Lance]'; Julio Jones lands with Bucs - Yahoo Sports

Bill Belichick turned 70 this spring, and this week he begins his 48th season in the NFL and 23rd as the head coach of the New England Patriots.

So maybe hes just bored. Or just trolling the media again. Or just enjoying some harmless fun while exploiting a loophole or two even if there is minimal gain.

What is known is that Belichick has refused to name either an offensive or defensive coordinator for the Patriots this year and apparently wont do so. On Tuesday, at the start of training camp, he would confirm only his job.

Im the head coach, Belichick said. Ultimately Im responsible for everything. So just leave it at that.

Ah, this is the NFL. No one leaves anything at that. Everything must be analyzed and reanalyzed ad nauseam. Thats why Belichicks particular brand of humor always plays well, a welcome, midsummer sign that the season is fast approaching.

No OC or DC? Of course.

Belichick isnt just the head coach in New England, either. Hes also the teams general manager, although not officially because the franchise doesnt list such a job. During the 2020 NFL Quarantine Draft, Belichicks dog, Nike, sat in front of a computer inside his Nantucket home during a televised look-in, so maybe thats a clue.

Whatever it is, Belichick is already in full Belichick mode, leaving fans and media wondering what was the purpose of all of this?

Someone is going to be calling plays come Week 1, correct?

We won't be calling any for a while, Belichick said last week. Don't have any games for a while.

Right, of course.

[Set, hut, hike! Create or join a fantasy football league now!]

Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator last year, but he left to become the head coach in Las Vegas.

One prime candidate to replace him was Joe Judge, who is listed as an offensive assistant/quarterbacks after returning from a two-year stint as the head coach of the New York Giants. Prior to that, he was a special teams coordinator in New England.

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The other was Matt Patricia, who is listed as a senior football advisor/offensive line. Patricia came back to Foxborough last season after spending three years as the head coach in Detroit. Before that, he was the Patriots defensive coordinator when they had such a thing.

So is Patricia or Judge the offensive coordinator/play-caller? Its probably going to be Patricia, but then again, Belichick wont say.

I've said many times, I think Matt and Joe are two outstanding coaches in every sense of the word whatever those duties entail, Belichick said Tuesday. They're very good, exceptional at the entire gamut. I'm glad we have both of them. They do a good job.

But what job will that be?

We're not really big on titles and all that, so I think it's important that we all work together and create a good final product, so that's what we're going to try to do, Belichick said. That's what we've always done.

If you have to ask why Belichick would not name an offensive and defensive coordinator when nearly every other team at every other level of football including the Patriots in the past have an offensive and defensive coordinator, then you dont know much about Belichick.

Bill Belichick hasn't named an offensive or defensive coordinator. Maybe there's a good reason, beyond the fact he's just being Bill Belichick. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Why? Because he can, and because it doesnt really matter anyway.

There are actually a couple tangible explanations, and maybe they are the motivation. One is that by not having any coordinators, neither Patricia nor Judge (nor anyone else) has to participate in the weekly media sessions the NFL mandates of coordinators.

And its possible that Patricia, who was under contract in Detroit through the 2022 season before being fired in 2020, continues to be paid mostly by the Lions because he isnt officially a coordinator. So the Pats save a few bucks?

This is all semantics, of course. Eventually New England will play a game and everyone will try to figure out who is actually talking in the ear of quarterback Mac Jones. Or not.

In the past, there have been questions about whether Belichick has spread himself too thin, essentially serving as both the head coach and the defensive coordinator plus general manager. Hes always bristled at that suggestion or downplayed his role in calling plays and formations.

As always, no one really knows how, let alone why, things go on as they do in New England. Thats how Belichick wants it.

All that matters is the results. The Patriots, by Patriots standards at least, are in a bit of a drought, going 17-16 since Tom Brady left following the 2020 season. As franchise owner Robert Kraft noted in the spring, the team last won a playoff game three years ago of course, that was the franchises sixth Super Bowl title.

If anything is going to turn that around, its the continued development of Jones, now in his second year out of Alabama.

On that, Belichick was effusive.

Mac's done a great job, Belichick said. He's worked extremely hard. He's got a tremendous work ethic in all areas. I think there's a dramatic improvement He did a great job last year but he's starting from a much, much higher point this year than where he started last year. His offseason work has been significant.

Maybe it was all the time he spent with the non-existent offensive coordinator.

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If you have to ask why the Patriots haven't named coordinators, you don't know Bill Belichick - Yahoo Sports

The busiest week of the year for investors is here.

A jam-packed week of market-moving developments awaits traders in the coming days, headlined by the Fed, tech earnings, and key economic data.

The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting is set to take place this coming Tuesday and Wednesday, July 26-27, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates another 75 basis points.

On the earnings side, some of the S&P 500s most heavily-weighted components including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) are among more than 170 companies scheduled to report second-quarter results through Friday.

Also in the spotlight will be Thursday's advance estimate of second quarter GDP as market participants continue to debate whether a recession is already underway. Economists expect this report to show the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter, according to estimates from Bloomberg.

Logo of an Apple store is seen as Apple Inc. reports fourth quarter earnings in Washington, U.S., January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

All three major U.S. indexes logged gains last week after broad-based advances across sectors. On Tuesday, 98% of stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 advanced, the most since December 26, 2018, the first trading day after the market bottom that occurred on December 24, 2018, according to data from LPL Financial.

Recent gains have pushed up the index by roughly 6% since June 16, stoking optimism among some investors that the worst of the recent market downturn is over.

While breadth has been rather unimpressive during the markets rally since the June lows, days like Tuesday are exactly what we are looking for, and can go a long way towards changing the character of this market, LPL strategist Scott Brown said in a note. To be clear, the S&P 500 is not out of the woods yet.

Tuesday pushed the index to a close above the 50-day moving average for the first time since April 20, but it remained just short of the late-June intraday highs, Brown pointed out.

If the Federal Reserve proceeds with hiking rates three quarters of a percentage point later this week, the Federal funds rate will have moved from near 0% less than five months ago to a range of 2.25%-2.5% a level in line with most officials estimates of the long-run neutral.

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The Fed has told us theyre unlikely to let up on the brakes until they see a convincing shift in the trajectory of monthly inflation readings that would signal progress towards the Feds 2% target, PGIM Fixed Income lead economist Ellen Gaske said in emailed comments. We expect Powell will likely reiterate that message at his post-meeting press conference.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. central banks policy decision comes out at 2:00 p.m. ET.

We suspect its likely too soon for the Fed to convey a much more forward-looking point of view, as the most recent inflation readings still showed high and widespread price pressures, Gaske said. But with each additional hike from here, the lagged effects of the Feds tightening measures will be increasingly important to consider.

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. Powell testified on monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Last month, U.S. consumer prices again accelerated at the fastest annual pace since November 1981. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 9.1% in Junes reading, marking the highest print of the inflation cycle.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note last week that inflation expectations have notably softened since the FOMC last met in June, referencing downward revisions to the University of Michigans final read on 5-10 year inflation expectations, a decline in the surveys preliminary July figure, and a material downtrend in market-based measures of inflation.

This softening of inflation expectations is one reason why we expect the FOMC will not accelerate the near-term hiking pace and will deliver a 75bp hike at the July FOMC meeting, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said.

In addition to the Fed and earnings, investors will closely watch the governments first estimate of gross domestic product the broadest measure of economic activity for the second quarter, set for release Thursday morning.

The Atlanta Federal Reserves latest GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP on July 19, showed the economy likely shrank 1.6% last quarter. If realized, this decline would mark the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth and affirm to some strategists that the economy has entered a recession.

According to data from Bloomberg, Wall Street economists expect GDP grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter.

On the earnings front, results from the mega-caps will be closely watched, though hundreds of other names will draw investor attention during one of the busiest weeks for corporate results of the year. In addition to performance for the most recent three-month periods, remarks from tech heavyweights on hiring plans or other adjustments to their outlooks related to macroeconomic headwinds will be closely tracked.

In recent weeks, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Meta have all said they would scale back on hiring across certain areas.

According to FactSet Research, 21% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter earnings through Friday, with only 68% presenting actual earnings per share above estimates below the five-year average of 77%. Any earnings beats have also, in aggregate, been only 3.6% above estimates, less than half of the five-year average of 8.8%.

Monday: Chicago Fed national activity index (June), Dallas Fed manufacturing business index (June)

Tuesday: House price index (May), S&P Case-Shiller national home price index (May), Conference Board consumer confidence index (July), New home sales (June), Richmond manufacturing index (June)

Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications (week ended July 22), Durable goods orders (June), Retail inventories (June), Wholesale inventories (June), Pending home sales (June), FOMC statement, Fed interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference

Thursday: GDP (Q2 advance estimate), Initial jobless claims (week ended July 22), Continuing claims (week ended July 15), Kansas City Fed composite index (July)

Friday: Core PCE price index (June), PCE price index (June), Personal income (June), Personal spending (June), Real personal consumption (June), Chicago PMI (July), UMich consumer sentiment index (July preliminary), UMich 5-year inflation expectations (July preliminary)

Monday: Whirlpool (WHR), Squarespace (SQSP), TrueBlue (TBI), F5 (FFIV), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Ryanair (RYAAY), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Tuesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Coca-Cola (KO), McDonalds (MCD), General Motors (GM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Mondelez International (MDLZ), UPS (UPS), 3M (MMM), PulteGroup (PHM), Texas Instruments (TXN), General Electric (GE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Chubb (CB), Canadian National Railway, Pentair (CNI), Paccar (PCAR), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Albertsons (ACI), Teradyne (TER), Ashland (ASH), Boston Properties (BXP), FirstEnergy (FE), Visa (V)

Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), Boeing (BA), Ford (F), Etsy (ETSY), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile (TMUS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Kraft Heinz (KH), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Boston Scientific (BSX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Fortune Brands (FBH), Flex (FLEX), Hess Corporation (HES), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), Netgear (NTGR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), American Water Works (AWK), Ryder System (R), Genuine Parts (GPC), Waste Management (WM), Community Health Systems (CYH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Owens Corning (OC)

Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Pfizer (PFE), Honeywell (HON), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), Roku (ROKU), Merck (MRK), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Hertz Global (HTZ), T.Rowe Price (TROW), Valero Energy (VLO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Frontier Group (ULCC), Southwest Air (LUV), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Shell (SHEL), Stanley Black and Decker (SWK), Carlyle Group (CG), Lazard (LAZ), International Paper (IP), Sirius XM (SIRI), Hershey (HSY), PG&E (PCG), Hartford Financial (HIG), Celanese (CE)

Friday: AstraZeneca (AZN), Sony (SON), Aon (AON), BNP Paribas (BNPQY)

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Fed, tech earnings, GDP data: What to know ahead of the busiest week of the year - Yahoo Finance

The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to shift the blame elsewhere after inviting Pete Rose back to the ballpark. Rose, who the team previously distanced itself from after he was accused of having a relationship with a minor, is expected to appear at Citizens Bank Park on Aug. 7 as part of a celebration of the team's 1980 World Series win.

The team said it consulted with Rose's former teammates and said the commissioner's office approved the invite.

The invitation is notable, as it marks the first time in years Rose was invited to the park. The team was supposed to honor Rose's induction into the Phillies' wall of fame in 2017, but rescinded that offer after court documents alleged Rose had a relationship with a minor in the '70s.

Rose was accused of having an extra-marital relationship with a girl under the age of 16. The age of consent in Ohio, where some of the relationship was alleged to have taken place, is 16. Rose reportedly admitted he had a relationship with the girl, but believed she was older than 16.

Those documents emerged after Rose sued John Dowd, who oversaw MLB's investigation into Rose in the '80s, for defamation. The accusations were presented as part of Dowd's defense. They did not result in a criminal charge for Rose because the statute of limitations in Ohio passed when the allegations emerged.

In addition to those accusations, Rose is also banned from baseball due to a gambling scandal. If Rose appears at Citizens Bank Park on Aug. 7, it will mark the first time since his ban that he's been back on the Phillies' field since accepting a lifetime ban.

The Phillies' statements suggest the team considers the matter closed, and that Rose will make an appearance at the park Aug. 7. In its statement, the team did not address the accusations against Rose, or mention his lifetime ban from baseball. Instead, it tried to shift the blame to Rose's teammates and Rob Manfred for allowing Rose's invitation.

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The team also failed to explain why it was appropriate to invite Rose to the park now, or what changed between now and 2017, when the accusations first emerged. It's also unclear which members of the Phillies' organization signed off on the invite. Did one person lead the charge or did multiple people sign off on bringing Rose back?

The Phillies already tried to shift the focus off Rose, calling it a team celebration. While that's technically true, Rose's involvement has already taken the focus away off the team. His return will be the biggest story from the Aug. 7 celebration.

Assuming he is greeted with cheers, his is presence at the park will be normalized, opening the door for the Phillies to honor Rose at individual events. The Aug. 7 event provides a gateway for Rose to re-enter the baseball world.

Pete Rose was invited back to Citizens Bank Park. (Photo by Focus on Sport via Getty Images)

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Phillies offer weak response after inviting Pete Rose back to the ballpark - Yahoo Sports

A fall COVID-19 booster campaign has yet to take shape in the U.S., even as the country is experiencing a sharp surge in cases amid the dominance of the BA.5 variant.

It's one reason why the White House Covid-19 Response Team is pushing for eligible adults to get first or second boosters, depending on their age, and is contemplating expanding second boosters for all adults.

It's also why the White House is looking beyond the fall, in anticipation of having to fight the virus for some time to come. That was the theme of a half-day summit hosted by the White House today, looking at the future of vaccines, including pan-coronavirus and nasal or patch delivery methods.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser, said the virus has proven to be a challenge and the current generation of vaccines is not going to be enough.

"Since September of 2020, this virus has continued to prove more than a formidable foe," Fauci, who is also the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said.

"We have multiple variants of concern that we need to deal with. And it's getting more complicated ... We have sublineages of sublineages," he added.

The current suite of vaccines authorized or approved in the U.S. focus on attacking the spike protein of the coronavirus, a rather small target that is susceptible to mutations that have kept the virus circulating globally.

David Kessler, chief science officer of the White House COVID-19 Response Team and a former FDA Commissioner, said that despite the historic feat of delivering 784 million doses (of which 601 million have been administered), there is consensus in the scientific community about the next steps.

"We need vaccines with longer duration and greater breadth of protection," he said.

"We don't know how this virus may continue to mutate and come back in a stronger form," Kessler added.

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His comments echo the concerns of experts in the past few months, who worry that a fall booster campaign is not an effective strategy.

Dr. Paul Offit, who says he isn't sure that every adult is in need of a boost, is among those experts, citing memory cell responses in the human immune system.

It's been a debate for some time in the medical community about whether or not those who are healthy and vaccinated are already primed to fight severe infection and if additional boosters should be relegated to the most vulnerable populations.

Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, recently told Yahoo Finance as much, saying, "I think what hasn't happened yet is neither of these companies, neither Moderna (MRNA) nor Pfizer (PFE) has shown that giving that dual vaccine, that bivalent vaccine, is clinically better than just giving the ancestral strain."

He and other experts on the FDA panel have voiced concern about a lack of attention on memory cell protection and the need for vaccines with more durable protection as opposed to the highly effective, but quickly waning mRNA vaccines.

Sandeep Reddy, chief medical officer of ImmunityBio (IBRX), echoed the sentiment Tuesday, saying that his company is focusing on a different target than the spike protein in hopes of more durable protection.

"We clearly need antibodies, but we also need T cells in order to break the cycle of transmission," Reddy said.

The U.S. government pulled all the stops to ensure widespread access to vaccines amid the pandemic, but Congress has made it clear the purse strings are tightening.

That has been clear in the White House's struggle to get approval for booster funding for all. It has prompted discussions about commercial access to the vaccines of which only two vaccines are eligible to sell and market based on receiving full approval. Those are the current Pfizer/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna doses.

Kessler noted at the panel Tuesday that discussions about commercial availability which puts the burden on insurers and individuals are underway. But, he added, ensuring access to those with inadequate or no insurance is a priority.

Fauci noted that the overwhelming government investment in the research, development and in some cases manufacturing of the COVID-19 vaccines, and their availability to all Americans helped to save more than 2 million deaths.

Fauci cited a Commonwealth Fund analysis that also noted that more than 17 million hospitalizations, 66 million infections and just under $9 billion in health care costs were averted by the existence of vaccines.

But, he noted, a public-private partnership approach is key in continuing the effort, as was achieved through Operation Warp Speed.

"Industry partnership from the begging and de-risking ... is critically important," Fauci said.

Follow Anjalee on Twitter @AnjKhem

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Fauci on needing a second generation of COVID vaccines: 'We have multiple variants of concern ... And it's getting more complicated' - Yahoo Finance