Daily Archives: July 21, 2022

Once the backbone of the Democratic base, working-class white voters have been migrating toward the Republican Party since the 1960s, largely out of alienation from the Democrats liberal stands on cultural and racial issues. Half a century later, those working-class white votersusually defined as having less than a four-year college educationhave become the indisputable foundation of the Republican coalition, especially in the era of Donald Trump.

Now a chorus of centrist and right-leaning political analysts are claiming that the same shift has begun among working-class nonwhite voters, especially Latinos.

Were seeing a political realignment in real time, Axios insisted in a recent analysis. Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights. Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.

If correct, these claims would offset, or even eliminate, the advantage Democrats expect from the demographic change that has steadily increased the share of the vote cast by people of color by about two percentage points every four years. Growth among working-class Latino voters, in particular, would offer the Republicans an escape from the demographic cul-de-sac in which their core constituencies of non-college-educated and white Christian voters have each fallen to only about two-fifths of the total population.

Geraldo L. Cadava: Theres no such thing as the Latino vote

Theres no disagreement that Trump, despite all the controversies surrounding his hard-line immigration policies and his often harsh rhetoric about immigrants, ran better among Latinos in 2020 than he did in 2016. And theres no dispute that President Joe Bidens approval rating among Latinos has sagged, just as it has in most polls among other groups.

But whether these results amount to a lasting realignment among working-class Latino voters is much more disputedas is the assertion that rejection of liberal cultural values is the principal cause of the recent Democratic difficulties with them. I would say theres a difference between a dominant narrative and dominant data, Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster who specializes in Latino voters, told me.

The best evidence in polling and election results suggests that claims of a fundamental shift among non-college-educated Latino voters (who comprise about 85 percent of all U.S. Latinos) is, at best, wildly premature. But that doesnt mean that the ground isnt shaking in the Latino community.

The only honest answer is that nobody actually knows, and its maddening the extent to which we are not acknowledging the uncertainty here, Carlos Odio, the senior vice president of Equis Research, a Democratic firm that focuses on Latino voters, told me. He believes that those who claim Democrats face an irreversible death spiral with Latinos are exaggerating this moment. But even so, the degree of uncertainty and variability right now should be nerve-racking for Democrats, he said.

The major data sources about the election results differ on exactly how much stronger Trump performed last election, but broadly they suggest that Biden won Latino voters in 2020 by roughly 30 percentage points, after Hillary Clinton had carried them in 2016 by about 40 percentage points.

The shift was most visible in South Florida (with its large population of Cuban Americans and immigrants from Central and South America) and South Texas (with a large culturally conservative population of rural and small-town Mexican Americans). But gains for Trump were evident in every key state. Demographically, he found support across a wide range of groups as well, but the most important change may have been that, in 2020, a considerably higher share of Latinos who identify as conservative voted Republican than in 2016 or 2012, according to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of media organizations. Taken together, all of these factors pushed Trumps Latino support to about 35 percentwell above his 2016 showing but in range of what Republicans have carried in many other presidential races since 1980.

Bidens standing among Latinos has fallen sharply; multiple recent polls place his approval rating among them at less than 50 percent and sometimes at as little as 40 percent. Bidens fall has exerted a downward pull on Latino support for other Democrats, with multiple surveys showing the party holding a much narrower advantage among them than usual in the so-called generic ballot for the House of Representatives.

These two dynamics are propelling claims that Latinos are undergoing a structural realignment, in which more of them are recoiling from woke cultural liberalism and concluding that the GOP better reflects their values.

While there certainly was a white vs. black dimension to the working class realignment of the 1960s, today its mostly just white progressives against everyone else, Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, insisted in a recent tweet. Hispanic voters will find a religious connection with many, many white Republicans, and that religious connection can prove far more culturally and politically consequential than any effort to create a politics based on ethnic or racial identity, David French, a conservative writer critical of Trump (and an Atlantic contributor), recently declared. Almost daily, a different New York Times writer offers some version of the claim that, as David Leonhardt wrote last week, the social liberalism of Democratson immigration, marijuana, L.G.B.T. rights, affirmative action, abortion and morehas simultaneously attracted progressive college graduates and repelled more culturally conservative working-class voters.

In making these claims, the realignment camp is using something of a double standard. It argues that Republicans have become a multiracial working-class coalition even though the major data sourcesincluding the exit polls; the analysis done by Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm; and the Pew Research Centers Validated Voters studyall show that Trump carried only about one-fourth of nonwhite voters without a college degree in 2020. Each of those sources showed that Biden actually carried a notably higher share of white voters without a college degree (about one-third or more). Yet that performance purportedly leaves Democrats as a party solely of upscale voters, while the weaker showing among nonwhite non-college-educated voters earns Republicans credit as a multiracial coalition of working-class voters.

Still, the Catalist and exit-poll data both show that Trump in 2020 improved the GOP performance among those non-college-educated minority voters from 2012, when each found that Mitt Romney carried only about one-sixth of them, and from 2016, when both found that Trump carried about one-fifth. The question is why.

In a recent article, the longtime Democratic demographic and electoral analyst Ruy Teixeira, a leading proponent of the realignment theory, cited polling from Ruffinis firm to bolster his argument that Democrats emphasis on social and democracy issues, while catnip to some socially liberal, educated voters, leaves many working class and Hispanic voters cold. Teixeira pointed to results in Ruffinis poll that showed Latinos leaning toward Republican positions on specific issues, particularly in their support for increasing funding for police and for requiring transgender kids to play in sports that match their assigned sex at birth. But mostly he highlighted the divergence in the poll between the attitudes of Latinos and self-defined progressives on broad statements of values, such as whether America is the greatest country in the world, racism is structurally built into American society, or that hard work guarantees success. In each case, Latinos took positions much less critical of American society.

Read: The new swing voters

Its far from clear that most Democratic officeholders, as opposed to liberal activists and organizers, would really answer those basic values questions very differently than most Latinos did. But even leaving that aside, that list omits many of the most important choices that government officials at all levels actually face on cultural issues. And on those issues, preponderant majorities of Latinosincluding those without a college degreeexpress views that place them in the Democratic mainstream and in direct opposition to the dominant position in the Republican Party.

Take abortion. In recent polling by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute, two-thirds of Latinos said abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. The survey also found that big majorities of Latinos opposed the recent Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion, measures Republican-controlled states are discussing to prohibit women from traveling across state lines to seek an abortion, and prohibiting women from receiving abortion medication through the mail.

On gun control, the split was similar: A majority of Latinos took positions that align with Democrats and directly collide with the dominant view among Republicans. In 2021 polling by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, about two-thirds of Latinosincluding more than three-fifths of those without a college degreesaid they believed gun laws should be made more strict and supported a ban on both assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines. About four-fifths of Latinos opposed the proliferating red-state policy of allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons without a permit.

There is data right now that says Latinos are angry about the overstepping of Republicans on abortion, Tory Gavito, the president of Way to Win, a group that mobilizes support for causes and candidates that focus on communities of color, told me. Simultaneously, she said, the tragedy in Uvalde, Texas, was a massive flashpoint for Latino communities across the country around gun reform.

Likewise, a huge gulf separates Latino voters from Republicans on the biggest issues surrounding immigration. Polling (like the Ruffini survey cited by Teixeira) has found that many Latinos, like other voters, do not embrace radical calls for an open border or unconstrained illegal immigration. But nearly nine in 10 Latinos in Pews poll supported legal status for Dreamers, an idea blocked by the Republican Senate coalition. In PRRI polling, more than two-thirds of Latinos opposed Trumps efforts to build a border wall and large majorities of Latinos think undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. should be eligible for citizenship, another idea opposed by almost all House and Senate Republicans.

Most broadly, about three-fifths of all Latinos, including roughly that many Latinos without a college education, agreed in the PRRI polling that the Republican Party has been taken over by racists. By contrast, only about one-third of Latinosroughly the GOPs typical level of support in most presidential electionsagreed with the statement that socialists have taken over the Democratic Party.

Charles Coughlin, a longtime GOP consultant in Arizona, told me he believes conservative inclinations on some cultural and economic issues should allow his party to improve its performance with Latino voters. But he says he remains uncertain that Republicans can exploit that opportunity because of how the party is presenting itself in the Trump era. You dont hear Republicans talking about values anymore that bring people together, he said. Its always that government is this existential threat and they are out to get you. I dont find that to be a narrative thats popular with a lot of bread-and-butter Hispanic voters. [Republicans] talk themselves out of the room.

Yet none of this means that the Democrats who study Latino voters see no risks in the current trends. Amandi, the Democratic pollster, says the party has created opportunities for Republicans with the unforced errors of using rhetoric such as Defund the police and Latinx, which he says alienates many Latino voters. Odio, of Equis, says the threat facing Democrats in most places is not so much their positions on social and cultural issues, but the spreading perception that they prioritize those questions over the economic concerns paramount for most Latino families.

The challenge for Democrats, Odio told me, is when Latinos see their emphasis on cultural issues as evidence that Democrats are not prioritizing jobs and the economy. Still, he noted that the question of possibly mismatched priorities is very different from concluding that a growing number of Latinos now feel closer to Republican values, as those promoting the realignment theory maintain. Where some of the current commentators take it another step forward is the idea that there is an outright rejection to what Democrats believe in, and thats the one I feel is not totally borne out by the data, Odio said.

Like Amandi and others, Odio attributes the GOP gains among Latinos since 2020 less to long-term cultural factors than to near-term economic onesfirst a belief among them that Trump was more committed than Biden to reopening the economy during earlier stages of the pandemic and, more recently, that Biden isnt significantly concerned with addressing intense dissatisfaction over inflation. The 2020 election exit poll bolsters the conclusion that economic considerations have predominated. According to results provided to me by Edison, Trump won more than 90 percent of Latinos who felt he could better manage the economyand just 6 percent of those who thought Biden would do a better job producing prosperity.

Now, though, in polling by Navigator Research, a consortium of Democratic pollsters, three-fifths of non-college-educated Latino voters said they were uneasy about their current financial situation. Everybody is looking for all the reasons for Bidens decline with Latinos, and its like the suspect is there holding the smoking gun and its always the frickin economy, Odio said.

To some Democrats, the economy shifts the arrow of blame. While centrists point fingers at the left for advancing cultural positions and language unpopular with Latinos, liberals say the real culprit is the partys moderate wingparticularly Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinemawho have derailed the economic assistance embodied in Bidens Build Back Better legislation, which enjoyed strong Latino support in Navigator polling.

Geraldo L. Cadava: The battle for Latino voters in the Rust Belt

Gavito, the Way to Win president, told me that the critics of cultural liberals are aiming at the wrong target. I wish they would bring some of that ire to Joe Manchin to ask why he kicked out the legs from our stool on a really solid economic argument behind Build Back Better, she said. Is the real problem, she added, that Democrats are losing touch with working-class voters because a group of movement leaders responding to the George Floyd uprising made a bold request of our policing system, or is it more likely that the powers that be who can actually vote on big economic packages just arent moving?

Teixeira, who recently relocated from the liberal Center for American Progress to the center-right American Enterprise Institute, doesnt buy any of that. He told me hes dubious that Democrats can push their Latino support back into the 2-to-1 range they once enjoyed even if the economy is roaring. He thinks Democrats will need massive changes in their program to prevent further erosion among Latinos, including a much less expensive domestic agenda, more support for domestic fossil-fuel production, and a completely revamped social agenda. They would talk less about race, period, he said. They would talk less about gender. They would not go down the road of wading into all these very arcane and difficult, contentious trans issues. They would not use language that sounds like it comes out of, in James Carvilles immortal words, the faculty lounge.

Some change in Latino loyalties seems irreversible. In particular, the increased willingness of self-identified conservative Latinos to vote Republican has likely raised the share of the Latino vote the GOP can routinely expect to a point that is firmly in the 30s, with the possibility of a push toward 40 percent, as Odio put it. But as Amandi pointed out, if Democrats can sustain even a roughly 3-to-2 split among Latino voters, that will pay increasing dividends going forward as more of them enter the electorate.

Less certain is whether Democrats can hold the line at about that level of support. In the near term, the key question about Latinos in 2022 is the same as for other Democratic-leaning constituencies who are expressing disappointment in Biden: Will they decouple their views about the president from their choices in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races to a greater extent than has been common in the past few decades? Based on recent polling he conducted in Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, Amandi is relatively optimistic, at least in Senate races. We are seeing a conscious distinction that voters are making between whether they want to give Republicans power again despite their disappointment and sense of pessimism about President Bidens performance thus far, he told me.

But even with greater than usual decoupling, the level of Latino discontent over the economy and Bidens performance is so great that few would be surprised if many Democratic candidates in November lag their usual support in that community.

Such a result would undoubtedly fuel another round of debate over whether a lasting realignment among Latinos is really under way. And that talk will undoubtedly grow louder if Bidens Latino support remains depressed moving closer to 2024. Whether the Democrats recent struggles among Latinos is structural and mostly values-based, or personal to Biden and mostly economic-based, probably wont matter as much to the party as whether it can reverse that erosion, if not in November then certainly before voters pick the next president.

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Are Latinos Really Realigning Toward Republicans? - The Atlantic

Former Treasury Department economist David Beckworth analyzes the pace of inflation and the risk of global recession on 'Varney & Co.'

EXCLUSIVE: A top Senate Republican plans to introduce legislation Thursday that is designed to provide targeted relief to lower- and middle-income Americans who are struggling financially due to rising consumer prices by indexing certain tax benefits to inflation.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, is set to unveil the "Family and Community Inflation Relief Act," which would adjust the phase-out thresholds or deductible amounts for several tax credits and other benefits for families and students.

The proposal a copy of which was first shared with FOX Business comes just one week after new June inflation data from the Labor Department showed consumer prices soared 9.1% from the previous year, the fastest year-over-year jump since 1981.

Although the IRS adjusts the federal income taxes for inflation, that is not the case for many of the government's low-income assistance programs including the child tax credit, an income-based program that provides up to $2,000 per child for millions of families with children under the age of 17. Under current law, the payments go to individuals earning less than $75,000 and married couples earning less than $150,000.

WHY IS INFLATION STILL SO HIGH, AND WHEN WILL IT START TO COOL?

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) speaks with reporters before a vote at the U.S. Capitol Building before a Senate Luncheons on October 19, 2021 in Washington, D.C. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Grassley's bill would adjust those income cut-off levels, as well as the annual payment of $2,000, by indexing them for inflation to ensure the credit is not eroded by the hottest inflation in four decades. The proposal also includes the non-child dependent credit, which provides up to $500 for other dependents, such as elderly parents.

"Indexing useful tax credits to inflation like the child tax credit and the lifetime learning credit will help parents and students keep up with rising costs," Grassley said. "While President Biden has failed to produce any meaningful solutions to the economic crisis he created, Ill continue working on common sense policies that will help Americans weather this soaring inflation."

These are the other tax programs covered by the bill:

Grassley has proposed paying for the changes proposed in his bill by extending the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction that was imposed by Republicans in the 2017 tax overhaul. The current SALT deduction limit is poised to expire in 2025.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about inflation and the economy in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus May 10, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images / Getty Images)

Scorching-hot inflation has created severe financial pressures for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food, gasoline and rent. The burden is disproportionately borne by low-income Americans, whose already-stretched paychecks are heavily impacted by price fluctuations.

Rising prices and the rapid dissolution of Americans' buying power have become a major political liability for Biden ahead of the November midterm elections, in which Democrats are expected to lose their razor-thin majorities. Surveys show that Americans see inflation as the biggest problem facing the country and that many households blame Biden for the price spike.

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The president has blamed higher prices on greedy corporations, supply chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-induced disruptions in the economy, as well as the Russian war in Ukraine. Most economists now agree that unprecedented levels of government stimulus and a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic have also played at least some role in exacerbating the price spike.

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Senate Republican to propose 'inflation relief' in new bill targeting tax credits - Fox Business

The House of Representatives' Judiciary Committee voted to approve new legislation that would ban assault weapons, with all of the Democratic members supporting the measure.

All of the 18 Republican members of the committee who were present for the vote opposed the adoption of the legislation, while GOP Representative Greg Steube wasn't in attendance.

The Assault Weapons Ban Act of 2021 is the first piece of legislation to restrict assault weapons that the Judiciary Committee has approved in 20 years. It aims to prohibit the sale, manufacture, transfer and import of all semi-automatic rifles, if those rifles can accept a detachable magazine and they have a pistol grip.

The bill would also ban such weapons when they have a grenade launcher, a barrel shroud or a threaded barrel, a forward grip or a folding, telescoping or detachable stock, along with other measures to restrict the firearms.

The vote comes after a number of deadly mass shootings in recent weeks, including at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, that left 19 children and two teachers dead.

The alleged gunman in Uvalde used an AR-15 style rifle, which the legislation will restrict if it's passed by the House and Senate and signed into law by President Joe Biden.

An AR-15 style rifle was also used in the deadly Highland Park mass shooting that saw seven people killed during a Fourth of July parade.

The Republicans who voted against the legislation were:

Jim Jordan of Ohio

Steve Chabot of Ohio

Louie Gohmert of Texas

Darrell Issa of California

Ken Buck of Colorado

Matt Gaetz of Florida

Mike Johnson of Louisiana

Andy Biggs of Arizona

Tom McClintock of California

Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin

Thomas Massie of Kentucky

Chip Roy of Texas

Dan Bishop of North Carolina

Michelle Fischbach of Minnesota

Victoria Spartz of Indiana

Scott Fitzgerald of Wisconsin

Cliff Bentz of Oregon

Burgess Owens of Utah

Representative Jordan, the ranking member on the committee, said the legislation would "strip Americans of their right" and "would do nothing to make our communities safer."

"Democrats know this legislation will not reduce violent crime or reduce the likelihood of mass shootings, but they are obsessed with attacking law-abiding Americans' Second Amendment liberties," Jordan said.

The official Twitter account of the House Judiciary Committee GOP posted on Wednesday: "HOUSE DEMOCRATS JUST VOTED TO STRIP LAW ABIDING CITIZENS OF THEIR SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS."

They later sent a tweet quoting directly from the Second Amendment: "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

However, Democratic Representative Jerrold Nadler, chair of the committee, argued in favor of the legislation.

"As we have learned all too well in recent years, assault weaponsespecially when combined with high-capacity magazinesare the weapon of choice for mass shootings. These military-style weapons are designed to kill the most people in the shortest amount of time," Nadler said, during his opening statement.

"Quite simply, there is no place for them on our streets," he added.

Following the vote, the House Judiciary Democrats' Twitter account criticized Republican opposition: "Every committee Republican voted no.If the deaths of our nation's children from gun violence won't motivate Republicans to take action to save lives, what will?"

It remains to be seen how quickly the legislation will advance. Congress will enter recess in early August.

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Every Republican to Vote Against an Assault Weapons Ban - Newsweek

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WASHINGTON Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy said his party will retake the House this fall because of their stance on inflation, immigration and other key issues that he shared exclusively with Fox News Digital.

"The Democrats have failed the American public," McCarthy said. "I think the extremism on the Democratic side has pushed people away."

Roughly 1.7 million Americans have changed their party affiliation over the past 12 months, and more than one million U.S. voters have switched their party affiliation to the GOP, according to an analysis from the Associated Press. Two-thirds of those have gone to the GOP, while just 630,000 have switched to the Democratic Party, according to the report.

McCarthy said voters "want to see a party that puts people before politics, and that's exactly what the Republican Party is doing."

HOUSE GOP LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY BREAKS ANOTHER FUNDRAISING RECORD

McCarthy added that the Democrats' approach to key issues such as inflation, energy independence, immigration and crime has failed.

"With the highest inflation we've had in more than 40 years gas prices that you have never seen like this before, crime in our streets and a border that's wide open that now has fentanyl to be the number one killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 45," McCarthy said. "If we take the majority, we will make sure we lower the cost of energy and become energy independent, we secure our streets to be safe and then, more importantly, we secure our border at the same time."

Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, stands with her family and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for a portrait after being sworn-in on June 21, 2022, in Washington. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Highlighting the success of the Republican's agenda, McCarthy referenced Myra Flores, who recently won in a Texas special election in a historically Democrat-held seat.

MAYORKAS CLAIMS SOUTHERN BORDER 'IS SECURE' AS HISTORIC MIGRANT CRISIS RAGES

"Congresswoman Myra Flores, who's never run for office before, she proved she could do it based upon securing our border, based upon making America energy independent, so your gasoline price gets lower, we lower inflation, parents have a say in their kid's education, the streets become safe again with that type of idea that we can win in a seat like that, I think we can have a really, really big red wave," McCarthy told Fox News.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy leads a GOP delegation meeting with Border Patrol in Eagle Pass, Texas. (Fox News' Bill Melugin)

BLOGGER PAID BY DEM CANDIDATE WHO TARGETED MAYRA FLORES DEFENDS SEXIST ATTACKS, OTHER RACIST POSTS

Republicans are closely watching races in Rhode Island, California, Nevada, Oregon and New York, McCarthy told Fox News.

"There [are] places clear across this country that I think you're going to see races you haven't seen before where an exciting new candidate is going to win," he continued.

McCarthy also spoke about using a potential Republican majority in the house to hold the Biden administration accountable.

President Biden speaks about inflation and supply chain issues in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

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"We'll make sure the attorney general can't go after parents for going to a school board meeting. We will have hearings on where COVID originated. We will have hearings on what happened in Afghanistan that created 13 more Gold Star families to make sure that never happens again," McCarthy said.

"We have a commitment to America," he told Fox News.

Kyle Morris and Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report

Jon Michael Raasch is an associate producer/writer with Fox News Digital Originals.

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Republicans will take back the House in the Midterms because of these key issues, GOP Leader McCarthy says - Fox News

For Republicans who fear the GOP is falling too far to the right, or for Democrats who are worried their candidate is too far left, the outcome of a court case to potentially allow fusion voting in New Jersey might just be the ticket for those who are loyal to their party, but are not necessarily enthusiastic about their partys candidates.

Such is the goal of the Moderate Party, an endeavor partially initiated by former East Amwell Township mayor Richard Wolfe.

Wolfe described the Republican Party as family and acknowledged that for many voters, they are unwilling to leave their family even if they do not necessarily agree with the direction the party is headed.Unfortunately, over the past few years, some bad apples have caused my family to move too far to the right. Im not prepared to leave my family and take up with a different family. Instead, I want to bring my family back to the center.

Wolfe explained the overall objective of the Moderate Party, for the short-term at least, as being the alteration of standing state election law.Under our current election laws in New Jersey, if the Democrats were to run a moderate candidatea candidate whose views align with my ownand the Republicans ran a far-right candidate, Im left with three and only three very unpalatable choices. One, I can vote for the moderate candidate under the Democratic party line on the ballot, and, in effect, leave my family. I dont want to leave my family. I can vote for the far-right Republican. But that would be encouraging my familys extremist behavior. My third choice is not to vote at all. Im concerned that many voters in New Jersey in my position are going to choose alternative three and not vote at all.

Should the legal team working on behalf of the Moderate Party be successful, fusion voting would allow a candidate to appear on the ballot as a candidate for more than just one party.This, Wolfe said, would give voters another option rather than wringing their hands over party fealty or just sitting out an election.The Moderate Party wants to give voters like me a fourth choice. I could vote for the moderate Democratic candidate under the Moderate Party line. In that instance, Im not supporting the Democratic Party. Im not leaving my family. But I am sending a clear message to my family and, for that matter, to the Democratic Party that I want, and in fact will support, moderate candidates to achieve this very important objective. The moderate party must, and I emphasize must, successfully challenge New Jerseys nearly 100-year-old election law banning fusion voting. Thats the highest priority.

The Moderate Party said that fusion voting was banned in the 1920s in an attempt to consolidate the two-party political duopoly which controls the state.

The candidate at the center of the Moderate Partys goals is Congressman Tom Malinowski, a Democrat running against former State Senator Tom Kean, Jr.The Moderate Party had filed to have Malinowski appear on the ballot under their ticket, but the move was rejected by Secretary of State Tahesha Way.An appeal was subsequently filed.

Though the Moderate Party filed its notice of appeal with the Appellate Division, it is planning on asking the state Supreme Court to take the case up directly in order to quickly address the serious constitutional violations raised, the Party said in a statement.

The gravity of the matter is such that the Moderate Party is taking its time in building up as strong a case as possible, Wolfe explained, asserting that overturning a century of on-the-books-law was not something to be undertaken lightly.It would be foolish on our part to sacrifice quality for speed and were not going to do that, Wolf said, I want to make it very clear that regardless of pressure to move quickly here, were going to do this right, were going to take the advice of our lawyers, and were going to produce the best quality product we can to give ourselves the greatest likelihood of success and winning our case.

The Republican roots of the Moderate Party should demonstrate that the body does not seem to be a product of Democratic machinations, looking to split the GOP vote, but rather a sign that some intra-party soul searching is required: an intervention, perhaps, for the family which Wolfe warns is drifting too far right.

Malinowski as the Moderate Partys championeven if he cannot yet appear on the ballot with the Moderate Party namestems from what Wolfe says is shared values on common sense, nuts-and-bolts government.The Moderate Party is standing with our candidate Tom Malinowski. He embodies the principles of the Moderate Party. He is the type of candidate that we believe the majority of voters in New Jersey and, in fact, the majority of voters in the country want. They want moderate candidates.

Wolfe promised that the Moderate Party would be campaigning very vigorously for the Democratic congressman irrespective of how quickly their case moves through the court system.

Beau Tremitiere spoke, representing Protect Democracy, an organization he says, fights to strengthen democracy and combat extremism and authoritarianism throughout the country.

Protect Democracy, Tremitiere said, is a non-partisan organization whose primary goal is the defense of a healthy democracy.We work with stakeholders all over the political spectrum who share our commitment to the rule of law, free and fair elections, and democratic freedoms.

The intense polarization of the country, he said, was pushing American democracy to the brink and that there was no guarantee of democracys survival.History teaches us that democracies die when one side believes that winning the next election is so important that its willing to use anti-democratic means to achieve its goal. We cant expect different outcomes unless we change the way we run our elections. Thats why we were extremely excited to learn about Rick and the Moderate Partys plan to challenge New Jerseys anti-fusion laws. Fusion isnt the solution to all of our problems, but it could make a meaningful difference in a few key ways.

Tremitieres assertion was that fusion voting would let voters choose pro-democracy candidates, free from the baggage of the Democratic and Republican parties, a binary which has fueled dangerous political and social conflict.It would also allow for pro-democracy coalitions to stand against authoritarian blocs. Were hopeful that others around the country will be inspired by whats happening in New Jersey.Like New Jersey, some other states have strong state constitutions and independent minded state courts which can pave the way for a resurgence of fusion voting nationwide. There is light at the end of the tunnel, if ordinary people like our clients are willing to pull us through the darkness. In our view, this case isnt about politics, its about democracy.

When Wolfe was questioned, as a Republican, how he would support a candidate such as Malinowski, who has reportedly voted in near lockstep with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the former mayor was unconcerned.Most bills, he said, are of a mundane operational nature where bipartisan support is common and expected.He used his own political record as a reference.In my first year on the Township Committee of East Amwell Township, I had very different views than my Democratic colleagues who were the majority. But I would guess that if you took the number of votes we had during that first year, I voted the same as they did, probably well north of 90% of the time. Does that mean our views 90% align? No. What it means is, theres a lot of routine legislation that comes across our desk. Thats not controversial at all. So yes, we vote together. When people talk about Tom Malinowski voting 98% of the time in line with Nancy Pelosi, why dont we look at the list of items that comprise that 98% and lets see how many of them are actually substantive.

The former mayor said that his affinity for Malinowski was a product of the congressmans attentiveness to his constituents needs.At first, he explained, he expected the congressman to give him the cold shoulder, given their parties, but such was not the case.In time, Wolfe grew confident and particularly appreciative of Malinowskis constituent services and decided that, in summary, he was a good elected official.The Democratic label was less important than delivering on what needed to be done for the good of the people.

Tom Malinowski was the enemy in the Wolfe household until about two years ago, Wolfe said.In the last two elections, my wife and I actually supported his opponent, or his opponents, Leonard Lance and Tom Kean Jr. We even had a fundraiser for Leonard Lance and was scheduled to have one for Tom Kean Jr. We did not view Tom Malinowski favorably, but that was because he was a Democrat, and I was a Republican.

Wolfe explained that he had served as mayor of East Amwell Township for three terms, and during that time, approximately 18 months ago, he was introduced to Malinowski for help in overcoming an issue he had not been able to get assistance with.Initially, Wolfe was not optimistic.I assumed Id be wasting my time discussing this with Tom Malinowski. Hes a Democrat, Im a Republican. He had every incentive to see me fall flat on my face. Not only did he not behave that way, but he and his staff bent over backwards to help me with my problem. I then reached out to him several timessparingly, because I didnt want to wear out my welcome. But I did reach out to him several times after that to help me with problems in East Amwell. Without exception, he threw the full resources of himself and his staff behind helping me. That, to me is a moderate. That is someone who is willing to reach across the aisle to get things done for our constituents.

He said that over time, he got to know the Democratic congressman better and said that once he looked past the party labels, he found that he and Malinowski shared a number of ideological positions.His views and my views on most issues are pretty much aligned on fiscal and social issues, and I view myself as a moderate Republican. Tom believes in putting country and constituents over party loyalty. Hes not afraid to criticize his party when he thinks its doing the wrong thing. He certainly works hard to protect the basic foundations of our democracy, such as free and fair elections, a nonpolitical judiciary, settling differences by voting and not by violence. Economically, he believes that people should not be overburdened by taxes but, on the other hand, they should pay their fair share. Hes been very outspoken about that. Ive been a tax lawyer for 35 years and I absolutely agree with his view. We shouldnt have major companies paying no taxes. Thats not extreme liberalism. That is, to me, economically sensible.

Wolfe said that he had considered going the path of a statistician in the past, and was aware of how easy it is to manipulate statistics to represent a certain perspective with regards to Malinowskis voting record being in strong alignment with Pelosis.You have to look behind the 98%, Wolfe said.In terms of Toms comments regarding the Republican Party, youd have to put those in context. Ive said some pretty harsh things about the Republican Party over the last year and a half, and you could take words out of those statements that are probably comparable to what Tom has said. I still view the Republican Party as my family. Im just trying to bring my family back closer towards the center.

At present, Congressman Malinowski is the prime candidate the Moderate Party is directing its energies behind, but the overall goal would be to expand that and provide some relief for those who pinch their nose going into the ballot box or, perhaps worse, stay home and do nothing at all.

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The Prodigal 'Family': Richard Wolfe and the Republican Party - InsiderNJ

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the link between politics and health became glaringly obvious. Democrat-leaning blue states were more likely to enact mask requirements and vaccine and social distancing mandates. Republican-leaning red states were much more resistant to health measures. The consequences of those differences emerged by the end of 2020, when rates of hospitalization and death from COVID rose in conservative counties and dropped in liberal ones. That divergence continued through 2021, when vaccines became widely available. And although the highly transmissible Omicron variant narrowed the gap in infection rates, hospitalization and death rates, which are dramatically reduced by vaccines, remain higher in Republican-leaning parts of the country.

But COVID is only the latest chapter in the story of politics and health. COVID has really magnified what had already been brewing in American society, which was that, based on where you lived, your risk of death was much different, says Haider J. Warraich, a physician and researcher at the VA Boston Healthcare System and Brigham and Womens Hospital in Boston.

In a study published in June in The BMJ, Warraich and his colleagues showed that over the two decades prior to the pandemic, there was a growing gap in mortality rates for residents of Republican and Democratic counties across the U.S. In 2001, the studys starting point, the risk of death among red and blue counties (as defined by the results of presidential elections) was similar. Overall, the U.S. mortality rate has decreased in the nearly two decades since then (albeit not as much as in most other high-income countries). But the improvement for those living in Republican counties by 2019 was half that of those in Democratic counties11 percent lower versus 22 percent lower.

The studys longitudinal approach and county-by-county analysis replicate and extend a clear pattern, says Jennifer Karas Montez, a sociologist and demographer at Syracuse University, who was not involved in the research. It joins an already existing, pretty robust literature showing that politics [and] polarization do have life-and-death consequences, Montez says.

The new study, conducted by researchers in Texas, Missouri, Massachusetts and Pakistan, covers the years 2001 through 2019 and examines age-adjusted mortality ratesthe number of deaths per 100,000 people each yearfrom the top 10 leading causes of death, as recorded in 2019. These include heart disease, cancer, lung disease, unintentional injuries and suicide. The researchers then analyzed county-level results in each of the five presidential elections that took place during their study period, identifying counties as Republican or Democratic for the subsequent four years. They found the gap in mortality rates between Republican and Democratic counties increased for nine out of 10 causes of death. (The gap for cerebrovascular disease, which includes stroke and aneurysms, remained but narrowed.) Political environment, the authors suggest in the paper, is a core determinant of health.

What is it about conservative areas that might lead to this disadvantage in health outcomes? Multiple factors probably contribute to the gap. Previous research has found differences between Republican and Democratic regions in health-related behaviors such as exercising or smoking. Those findings were nuanced. For example, Democrats had higher odds of smoking, and Republicans were less likely to exercise. But people living in Republican states, whatever their own political leanings, were more likely to smoke.

And an analysis of the new studys data by subgroups supports the idea that individual choices play a role. Hispanic Americans everywhere saw significant improvements in their risk of death. Black Americans still have the highest mortality rates of any racial group, but they saw relatively similar improvement. It didnt really matter where they lived, Warraich says. For white Americans, however, the difference was profounda fourfold increase in the mortality gap between those living in Republican and Democratic areas.

Still, experts say some policy choices may have a larger role than individual behavior in causing poor health. As health outcomes such as life expectancy have diverged in recent years, state policies have been becoming more polarized, says Steven Woolf, a physician and epidemiologist at Virginia Commonwealth University. In an editorial that accompanied the BMJ paper, Woolf wrote, Corroborating evidence about the potential health consequences of conservative policies is building.

In a study that focused on life expectancy in the U.S. between 1970 and 2014 and that also looked at some benchmarks beyond those years, Montez, Woolf and others showed that in 1959 a person in Oklahoma could expect to live, on average, about the same number of years as a person in similar circumstances who lived in Connecticut. And both states performed relatively well, compared to the other 48. But by 2017 Connecticuts citizens had a five-year advantage in life expectancy over their peers in Oklahoma, which is a politically conservative state. They were near the top of the chart, whereas Oklahomans were near the bottom.

In the intervening decades liberal states enacted more policies to address health concerns while conservative states went in the opposite direction, with inflection points in the early 1980s 1994 and 2010. Montez notes that those dates line up with Ronald Reagans election as U.S. president, Newt Gingrichs control of Congress and the rise of Tea Party politics. Political affiliation drives social policies and spending, says Lois Lee, a pediatric emergency physician at Boston Childrens Hospital and Harvard Medical School. Conservatives tend to see health as a matter of individual responsibility and to prefer less government intervention. Liberals often promote the role of government to implement regulations to protect health. The Democratic approach has included expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Access to health care and having health insurance are important for well-being, Warraich says. Democrats also spend more on what are known as the social determinants of health. We know things like your housing situation, your socioeconomic status, your access to healthy foods and healthy lifestyles, as well as exposure to toxic stressall these things affect your overall physical as well as emotional and mental health, Lee says.

Several kinds of policiesaround tobacco, labor laws, the environment and gunsrepeatedly emerge as significant. Each party has bundled multiple policies together, Montez says. In Mississippi, for example, there are no statewide clean indoor air policies restricting smoking in bars, restaurants or workplaces, Montez says. In California, on the other hand, smoking is restricted in all three environments. Cigarette taxes also differ dramatically. The places where you cant smoke indoors are also the places where cigarettes cost a lot, Montez says.

As with COVID, the divergence between states over gun safety laws is dramatic. Firearms contribute to deaths from suicide and unintentional injury and to many nonlethal injuries. Blue states are more likely to require background checks, whereas red states more often allow concealed carry of guns. With gun laws, too, researchers are beginning to look at the effects of policies in aggregate, says Garen Wintemute, emergency physician and director of the Violence Prevention Research Program at the University of California, Davis. Before California enacted a suite of laws regulating firearms and their ownership and use in the late 1980s and early 1990s, firearm violence mortality rates here were higher than in the rest of the country, he says. After those laws were enacted, rates plummeted in California. The most likely explanation, which Wintemute hopes to test, is that the laws were in part responsible. Until recently, that kind of research has been severely curtailed by the Dickey Amendment, a 1996 addition to a federal spending bill that effectively prevented the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from conducting research on firearm violence. Congress clarified the law in 2018, paving the way for research funding. Things are modestly looking up, Wintemute says. The CDC and [National Institutes of Health] both have small amounts of research funding and are using it.

Cultural differences between red and blue counties also likely contributed to COVID deaths. Youre affected by your neighbors, says Neil Sehgal, a public health professor at the University of Maryland and co-author of a recent study of the association between COVID mortality and county-level voting. Sehgal and his colleagues found that through October 2021, majority-Republican counties experienced 72.9 additional deaths per 100,000 people relative to majority-Democratic counties. To the researchers surprise, however, vaccine uptake explained only 10 percent of the difference. The finding suggests that differences in COVID outcomes are driven by a combination of factors, including the likelihood of, say, engaging in unmasked social events or in-person dining, Sehgal says. By February 2022 the COVID death rate in all counties Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election was substantially higher than in counties that Joe Biden won326 deaths per 100,000 people versus 258. COVID was probably the most dramatic example Ive seen in my career of the influence of policy choices on health outcomes, Woolf says.

A key takeaway from these studies is that the partisan mortality gap doesnt have to keep growing. As a public health expert and as a physician, it doesnt matter to me whether my patient is a Republican or Democrat, Warraich says. I want the best outcome for both of those patients and both of those communities. Acknowledging the mortality gap, as challenging as that is in our polarized environment, is the first step toward engaging with solutions, he says. The worst thing that could happen is that [the BMJ study] just becomes labeled as political or partisan, he saysand that the people who really need to look at these findings ignore it because it is providing a truth that is uncomfortable or difficult to interpret.

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People in Republican Counties Have Higher Death Rates Than Those in Democratic Counties - Scientific American

While the GOP has often been labeled by opponents as a fraternity of old white men, a new cohort of minorities, first-generation immigrants, and moms are bringing a fresh wave of diversity, youth, and a whole new perspective to the Republican Party.

A recent report (pdf) by the Congressional Research Service showed that as of June 22, the average age of U.S. House members was 58.4 years. The average age for U.S. Senators was64.3 years. The average age of Congressional Democrats was slightly higher than that of Republicans at 60 over 58, respectively.

But that landscape is shifting asyoung, tech-savvy people who gained success outside of the political arena prepare to bring a new perspective to Washington.

Another study (pdf) of the 2020 election cycle shows that while white men make up about 30 percent of the nations population, they make up 62 percent of Americas political officeholders, dominating both chambers of Congress and 42 state legislatures, as well as controlling a multitude of other statewide positions like governor, mayor, sheriff, and school superintendent.

By contrast, while women and minorities constitute 51 percent and 40 percent of the American population respectively, only 31 percent of women and 13 percent of minorities hold elected offices, and incumbents usually win their primary elections.

Among the 2020 Republican primary candidates, 72.3 percent were white men and 20.2 percent were white women. Only five percent were minority men and even fewer, 2.6 percent, were minority women. By comparison, 38.4 percent of the Democrat 2020 primary candidates were white men and 30.1 percent were white women.

The Democrat Party had more candidates who were minority men and minority women, 17.6 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

All of that is beginning to change.

According to Axios, a record number of Republican Hispanics, 18 in all, are running for state House seats in New Mexico. In Texas, Hispanic women areset to dominate the Republican ballot.

TheNational Republican Congressional Committeereported that 81 black Republican candidates are running in 72 congressional districts in 2022. Thats more than double the number of black Republican candidates who ran for office during the 2020 election cycle.

The New York State Republican Party has a diverse lineup of young, political newcomers running for state offices as well as the U.S. Senate.

In an article for Newsweek, Jeff Charleshost of A Fresh Perspective podcast, co-host of the Red + Black Show, and contributor to Red State and Liberty Nationwrote that in the post-Trump era, it appears the GOP is beginning to embrace a new strategy, one that includes supporting minority andfemalecandidates to appeal to a broader swath of voters.

Charles told The Epoch Times that, considering the history of the Republican Party, he was a little skeptical when he first noticed the GOPs campaign to reach out to black voters, citing how the effort has been a little abysmal since the 60s.

But what were seeing now is more of a fresh and concerted effort to reach out to black voters and Latino voters as well, he said. The fact that we have a record number of black candidates running shows that the party just might be moving in the right direction. So I am cautiously optimistic about what were seeing. My only concern is that this might not be an ongoing concerted effort. One thing I always say when it comes to reaching black voters is, Its not a sprint, its a marathon. But if the Republican Party realizes that, they are going to see more gains over time.

Charles also noted the record number of Hispanic Republican candidates, particularly in Texas where the population is predominantly Hispanic, saying the way they are getting the votes is a sea change.

In this era, I think the Republican Party does seem serious about reaching out to minority voters, which is very encouraging, Charles said, adding that adjusting to demographic change is necessary in order for the GOP to stay relevant.

According to Charles, now is the perfect opportunity for Republicans to take advantage of the current mood among black and Hispanic voters.

Recent reports show that, because of the extreme shift toward a communist and socialist-style of governance, Democrats are rapidly losing support among Hispanic and black voters.

Hispanics and blacks are becoming disappointed and disillusioned with the Democrat Party, Charles noted. The Democrats have had their votes for decades and have done little to affect meaningful change. So I think this is also prompting a lot of what were seeing here.

With the GOP poised to retake the House and possibly the Senate, Charles believes there will be a lot more black and Hispanic Republican lawmakers, at least within the House. This, he said, will begin to alter the very makeup of Congress, which has mostly seen Democrats with the larger number of minority members.

If things go the way it seems like theyre going, Charles predicted, were going to see even more change over the next decade.

Daniel Foganholi is a first-generation American. His parents immigrated to America from Brazil with a dream of making a better life for their children. Foganholi is running for a seat as a city commissioner in Coral Springs, Florida, where he lives with his wife and 3-year-old son. They are expecting a daughter in October.

On April 29, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Foganholi to the Broward County school board to fill a seat vacated by state Sen. Rosalind Osgood, who left the board after being elected on March 8, 2022. His appointment to the Broward County school board not only made Foganholi the only male on the board, but also the only known Republican.

In a June 14 special election, Republican Mayra Flores flipped the majority-Hispanic 34th Congressional District in a historically blue region of South Texas by defeating leading Democrat candidate Dan Sanchez. Flores, who pulled 51 percent of the vote compared to Sanchezs 43 percent, will be the first Mexican-born congresswoman and the first Republican to represent the district since 1870.

Willie Montague,an entrepreneur, author, and ordained pastor, is running to represent Floridas 10th Congressional District. He is a pro-life black conservative who supports Second Amendmentrights and legal immigration.

Our nation is being set upside down by this current administration, Montague told The Epoch Times, adding that the only hope of rectifying the problems is for a new generation of conservative leaders who are for the people and come from the people to step forward.

Theyre not career politicians or people that come in with hundreds of thousands of billions of dollars, Montague clarified, explaining that Americans are looking for everyday people who have attended school board meetings and commissioner meetings.

Simi Birdwas bornto a single mother of seven children in the ghetto of East Oakland, California, prior to the passing of the Civil Rights Act.

But his circumstances did not define his future. Bird graduated summa cum laude with a bachelors degree in business administration from Columbia Southern University and he has a masters degree in human resource development from Villanova University. Hes a highly decorated former Green BeretArmy Special Forces Intelligence and Operations, and Special Forces Engineerand currently serves as the first blackmember of the school board for the Richland School District in Washington.

According to Birds profile on the website for America First P.A.C.T. (Protecting Americas Constitution and Traditions)a new conservative coalition he defined as a nascent anti-squadvictim behavior was not tolerated in his mothers household because Mrs. Bird wanted her children to become strong and resilient members of society.

What makes America great is our values, our diversity, Bird told The Epoch Times. To me, America is representative of all races, all nationalities, and all religions. Diversity gives us a different lens. Its about unity.

Terry Namkung, a candidate challenging the near 30-year Democrat incumbent Bobby Scottto represent Virginias 3rd District, is a black and Asian American who wants to challenge the establishment power structure that currently controls the Republican Party.

Namkung lives in Yorktown, Virginia, with his wife, Jasmine, and his two boys, Terrie and Ian. He has a doctorate in business and is a renewable energy expert.

Parents have been frustrated by forced masking policies, lockdowns, and social justice curriculum like critical race theory and transgender ideology being taught in their childrens schools to the detriment of traditional subjects such as math, English, and science.

As a result, moms across the country have been running for, and in many cases winning school board positions.

Eighteen months after former school board members Tiffany Justice and Tina Descovich founded the parents rights activist groupMoms for Liberty, their first national Joyful Warriors summit drew over 500 guests and several conservative powerhouses like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), and Dr. Ben Carson to Tampa, Florida, between July 15 and July 17.

With 100,000 members across 195 chapters in 37 states, the strength of their numbers is making Moms for Liberty a growing political influence.

If you guys run, you are going to make everybody else win, Scott said during his remarks on July 16.

School board members are elected to represent their constituents and their community. Theyre not elected to work for the school district,Justice told The Epoch Times, adding that too often it seems like school board members are more interested in protecting the school system rather than the interests of parents and their children.

So what youre seeing is a whole new crop of first-time politicians running for office, and why not moms? Justice asked rhetorically, adding who belongs on a school board more than parents?

The interesting thing is this, Justice explained. In the past, we had people who were career politicians. They got elected to school boards because they wanted to have a career in politics. Thats not the case here with parents. A lot of them have jobs and careers. Theyre running for school board because they really want to make a difference in their community.

While Justice believes its a natural progression, that these school board moms will go on to become a new crop of conservative state and federal lawmakers, she also hopes they usher in a return to the original purpose of an elected official, that they served their community for a short time and then returned to their jobs, not seeking an office because theyre looking for a full-time, lifelong career.

Christine Villaverdea former law enforcement officerbelieves its also time to send a concerned mom to Congress.

On May 17, Villaverde defeatedMahesh GanorkarandAdina Saftain the Republican primary for North Carolinas 2nd Congressional District. She will face Democrat incumbentDeborah Rossin the general election on Nov. 8, 2022.

In the wake of theCCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus,and North Carolina Gov. Roy Coopers subsequent lockdowns, masking, and vaccine mandates, Villaverde saw a disconnect between Democrats in power and the people they were supposed to represent.

Democrats were ignoring what the people wanted and thats not what our government is supposed to do, Villaverde told The Epoch Times. Their primary responsibility is to ensure that were safe and secure and theyre failing on that part while mandating and imposing on our freedoms.

Villaverde believes people are tired of representatives who are sitting on a pedestal and are so far removed from normal people and the struggles they go through.

Im the mom of three boys, she said. I get up every morning and make sure they eat. I clean my own toilets. I do my own laundry and cut my own grass. But thats not what we see from the elites. Theyre so far removed from how normal people have to decide putting off the electric bill because they have to buy school supplies. A lot of people are literally one catastrophe away from bankruptcy or losing their house and were not seeing any responsiveness to that in D.C. Were just seeing these pet projects being pushed, the I want things. Theyre not concerned with the things people need to survive.

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Republican Party Attracting More Diverse Candidates Than Ever - The Epoch Times

State Sen. Bob Cassilly leads rival Billy Boniface by nearly a 2-to-1 margin in early Republican primary vote counting in the race for county executive in Harford County.

So far, Cassilly has received 16,990 votes 67.8% of the vote while Boniface, chief adviser to County Executive Barry Glassman, has received 8,044 votes, or 32.1%. The winner will face off against Blane Miller, III, the races lone Democrat who received 9,124 votes.

Cassilly expressed gratitude to his voters, supporters, and people who worked the polls for him and Boniface for running a very spirited and energetic race.

Harford County Executive candidate Bob Cassilly makes his way along the parade route during the Darlington July Fourth celebration Saturday, June, 25, 2022. (Matt Button / The Aegis/Baltimore Sun Media)

People have spoken pretty decisively, Cassilly said. [Im] looking forward to being the best county executive I can possibly be for the citizens of Harford County.

Boniface told The Aegis: Congratulations to Mr. Cassilly,[I] wish him the best of luck. Im very proud of my team, [I] thought they put on a good effort.

Mail-in ballots will be counted over the course of three canvasses, starting Thursday. Stephanie Taylor, elections director for the Harford County Board of Elections, said canvassing should be finishing by July 29.

Glassman ran unopposed in the state comptrollers Republican primary. He will face Democrat Brooke Lierman in the general election.

Brooke Lierman, on left, and Barry Glassman are running to be Marylands next comptroller. (Kenneth K. Lam & Matt Button/Baltimore Sun)

Alison Healey leads incumbent Al Peisinger in the Republican primary for Harford states attorney with 69.5% of the vote.

Im really looking forward to being Harford Countys first female states attorney, Healey said.

Peisinger did not respond to The Aegis request for comment.

Alison Healey, candidate for Harford County state's attorney (Courtesy Alison Healey)

Four Harford County Council members, all Republicans, sought re-election, and three are leading in their races. Council president Patrick Vincenti leads challenger Rick Grambo with 66.5% of the vote; District F council member Curtis Beulah is leading Fernando Silva with 72.4% of the vote; and District C council member Tony Giangiordano ran unopposed in his primary, as did Evan Schaule for District Cs Democratic primary.

Council vice president Robert Wagner, of District E, however, is trailing Jessica Boyle-Tsottles who has 54.2% of the vote, ahead of Wagners 40.5%.

Jessica Boyle-Tsottles, Harford County candidate (Phil McGrew/Courtesy Jessica Boyle-Tsottles)

The three remaining County Council members are seeking other political offices. District As Andre Johnson, the councils lone Democrat, leads in his primary for a House of Delegates seat for District 34A. Chad Shrodes, of District D, ran for clerk of the circuit court and trails Michelle Karczeski, 56.5% to 38.6%. Joe Woods, of District B, is running for the countys Republican central committee.

(Matt Button / Aegis Staff / Baltimore Sun Media Group)

Former Harford County council member Dion Guthrie is the current leader in the Democratic primary for District A, the only district with a Democrat council member. He received 45.1% of the votes so far. If he wins, Guthrie would face Republican David Woods, who ran opposed.

Aaron Penman leads District Bs Republican primary with 64.8% of the vote. No Democrats ran for District B.

In the tightest county council race, John Carl, Jr. has a narrow three percentage-point lead, 40.9% to 37.3%, over James Reilly, the countys current circuit court clerk, for District Ds Republican nomination. Jean Salvatore ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

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U.S. Rep. Andy Harris ran unopposed in the Republican primary for District 1s House of Representatives seat. If elected, this would be his seventh term.

Heather Mizeur is Harris prime challenger, leading the District 1 Democratic primary with 67.7% of the vote. Mizeur served in the House of Delegates from 2007 to 2015 and ran for governor in 2014.

Harford County is represented in the Maryland General Assembly by districts 7, 34 and 35. Sen. J.B. Jennings, of District 7, ran unopposed in his race. No Democrats ran. Republican Christian Miele and Democrat Mary-Dulany James lead in the race for Cassillys District 34 Senate seat, with 74.1% and 64.8% of their respective votes. Sen. Jason Gallion leads the Republican primary to defend his District 35 seat with 49.6% of the vote.

Del. Lauren Arikan defended her seat in the House of Delegates in the newly drawn District 7Bs Republican primary with 53.7% over Del. Rick Impallaria, who had 34.3% of the vote. Arikan and Impallaria both currently serve as District 7 delegates, but the new District 7B only allows for one Harford representative. Medford Campbell III ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

For District 34A, which has two seats, Harford County council member Andre Johnson and incumbent Del. Steve Johnson lead the Democratic race with 43.8% and 32.2% of the vote. Glen Glass and Teresa Walter lead the Republican primary with 37.9% and 32.2% of the vote.

Jay Ellenby, former chair of the Harford County Board of Commerce, holds a narrow lead for District 34Bs Republican House of Delegates primary over incumbent Del. Susan McComas, by a margin of only 34 votes. Gillian Miller ran unopposed for the seats Democratic primary.

Incumbent Dels. Teresa Reilly and Mike Griffith were the only two Republicans in the primary for District 35As two seats. Reilly had a small lead over Griffith, with 50.2% of the vote. No Democrats ran.

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Bob Cassilly leads Billy Boniface by 2-1 margin in early Republican primary results for Harford county executive - Baltimore Sun

The U.S. House of Representatives last week passed the Ensuring Access to Abortion Act. The law would have protected the ability to travel from states where abortion is banned to states where it remains legal to receive care. Senate Republicans, led by James Lankford of Oklahoma, have already blocked the measure, characterizing it a solution in need of a problem. No state has banned interstate travel for adult women seeking to obtain an abortion, Lankford said. This seems to be just trying to inflame, to raise the what-ifs.

Democrats on the ground in Texas, though, are wise to this tactic. Its one theyve seen before, and they are urging outsiders and national Democrats to pay attention: The effort to restrict a womans right to travel across state lines is already underway.

One week before Lankford made those comments, Yvette Ostolaza, a Dallas-based corporate litigator and the head of the white-shoe law firm Sidley Austin LLP, received a letter from a handful of elected officials in Texas.

It has come to our attention that Sidley Austin has decided to reimburse the travel costs of employees who leave Texas to murder their unborn children, the letter, signed by eleven Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives, read. It went on to threaten the law firm one of the countrys largest with criminal prosecution and the disbarment of its partners, among other penalties, over its pledge to reimburse abortion-related travel and, if necessary, related legal-defense expenses for its employees.

In the letter, Republicans went on to detail their plans to introduce legislation next session that will impose additional civil and criminal sanctions on law firms that pay for abortions or abortion travel.

Dozens of the nations top law firms, as well as many of its biggest corporations Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks, Disney, Tesla, JP Morgan Chase, to name a few have publicly promised to help employees forced to travel from states where abortion has been banned to recieve medical care. Its unclear why the Republicans singled out Sidley Austin, and the letters author, Mayes Middleton, chair of the Texas Freedom Caucus, did not respond to a request for comment. (Representatives for Sidley declined to comment as well.)

What is clear, Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas) tells Rolling Stone, is the letters intent: It is a threat to every employer in Texas that has a similar policy.

Fletcher was the author of the law Lankford blocked. Its really disingenuous, she says of Republicans logic. We know that these efforts are underway. This year in Missouri, a lawmaker already proposed a law like the one floated by the Texas Republicans in their letter. The archconservative Thomas More Society, one of several anti-abortion groups that write template laws for Republican state legislators, is reportedly drafting on model legislationthat would allow private citizens to sue anyone who helps a resident of a state terminate a pregnancy outside of that state.

The idea that these threats arent being made that this isnt happening is just not credible on its face, Fletcher says.

The active efforts to restrict and criminalize interstate travel are made even more unsettling by national Republicans reluctance to acknowledge them. Everyone should affirm the constitutional right to travel. This is something that is as old as our countrys Articles of Confederation. The Supreme Court has [weighed in on] this many, many times. The idea that people on the other side of the aisle the Republicans in the Senate and others cant protect the right to travel for all citizens? Fletcher says. Its really disturbing.

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who works in the Texas State House alongside the letters authors, is urging Democrats in Washington to take the threats seriously.

As the Republican Party spirals toward fascism, these ideas that are on the fringe are moving to the center of their party. And Im seeing that on issue after issue, Talarico tells Rolling Stone. He cited the legislatures approval last year of permitless carry the notion that anyone can carry a gun without a license or training as evidence. When the idea was first floated, Talarico says, It was seen as outrageous and fringe. Two years later, its the law of the land here in Texas. People need to understand how some of these extreme voices are taking over the Republican Party influencing policy. What seems fringe today is becoming mainstream in the Republican party tomorrow.

Its really easy to slip into denial that this is happening around us, he adds.

This weekend, at the Democratic Convention in Texas, Talarico publicly admonished President Biden and Democratic leaders for their response in the wake of the Supreme Courts decision to overrule Roe. The Democratic Party is the only thing standing between this country and fascism, Talarico said on stage in Dallas. Yet the best our national party leaders can muster is spineless talking points and soulless fundraising emails.

Talarico, who flipped a Republican district outside of Austin in 2018, urged Democratic leaders to take bolder action to protect reproductive rights, including by declaring a public health emergency, leasing federal property to abortion providers, and impeaching justices who lied under oath.

At a minimum, Talarico says, the Democratic Party needs to name the threat it is currently facing. Restricting a citizens ability to travel freely throughout the United States is authoritarianism, it is fascism. Were not talking about tax policy. Were not talking about budget size. Were talking about fundamental freedoms: the freedom to choose, to vote, freedom to marry, freedom to learn, freedom to teach, freedom to travel these are foundational freedoms that are at stake. This is not a conservative view of a budget versus a progressive view of budget were way beyond that.

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Republicans Took a Womans Right to Choose. Now Theyre Threatening Her Right to Travel - Rolling Stone

In his reporting, Charles interviewed a supporter of Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor in Pennsylvania, after a rally and asked her what she expected if Mastriano won. I see him stepping in and going back to the Constitution putting God back in things, she said. Hes about bringing everything back, she explained. Everything back.

Still, this racial and cultural reactionary response is almost certainly not the full story. After all, the U.S. has experienced more intense periods of debate over racial and gender issues like the 1960s without giving rise to a large anti-democracy movement. Today, several other factors also seem to play a role.

One is the underlying level of frustration among Americans after decades of slow-growing living standards for most people. A financial crisis, which began shortly before Obamas election, and the slow recovery from it exacerbated the dissatisfaction.

Another factor, Charles believes, is a pandemic that has disrupted daily life and caused a further deterioration in many measures of physical and mental health, fostering a sense that society is coming apart.

A third factor is modern media. On the internet, falsehoods can spread more quickly and be repeated more frequently than, say, the Birchers claim that Dwight Eisenhower was a secret communist. Fox News, meanwhile, broadcasts conspiracies to millions of viewers.

Finally, while Trumps role is sometimes exaggerated, it is still central. In the past, national leaders tended to reject the conspiracies; in 2008, John McCain famously corrected one of his own supporters who called Obama an Arab. Trump, by contrast, promoted lies as no other modern U.S. politician has, making them acceptable to people who otherwise might have rejected them. And once he became president, many other Republican politicians chose to echo him or at least refused to denounce him.

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Election Conspiracy Theories Have Become Central to the Republican Party - The New York Times