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Daily Archives: July 17, 2022
Free speech ‘stifled’ as universities cancel record number of speakers – The Telegraph
Posted: July 17, 2022 at 9:15 am
Freedom of speech is at risk of being stifled on campuses after a record number of speakers and events were rejected last year, the universities watchdog has warned.
The Office for Students found that nearly 200 requests for events and speakers were rejected by English universities and colleges in 2020-21, up from 94 in the previous academic year.
Susan Lapworth, the watchdogs interim chief executive, said she was concerned about the possibility that lawful views are being stifled.
She warned universities that they would face regulatory intervention if they failed to meet their obligations on freedom of speech.
Topics that some may find offensive or controversial must be open to free debate on campuses and across research communities, she said.
The vice-chancellor of the University of Essex apologised last year after a seminar on trans rights and the criminal justice system was cancelled following complaints that the speaker was a transphobe who was likely to engage in hate speech.
The university was also criticised after Prof Rosa Freedman, an expert in international human rights law at the University of Reading, was not invited to speak at a seminar on anti-Semitism after concerns were raised about her gender-critical views.
Andrea Jenkyns, the higher education minister, said the watchdogs findings were very concerning.
She said: Universities and colleges must be places that champion debate and diversity of thought, and this government has warned of the chilling effect of censorship on our campuses.
Under proposals in the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Bill currently going through Parliament, universities will have a legal duty to actively promote free speech. University governing bodies are currently required to take reasonable steps to ensure that freedom of speech within the law is maintained.
The Office for Students, which has the power to fine or deregister education providers, said it could not confirm whether it has previously penalised any universities over their handling of freedom of speech because it would risk prejudicing ongoing enquiries.
The regulator found that 193 events were rejected out of a total of 19,407 reported to it last year, the highest number recorded since it started collecting data in 2017.
Toby Young, of the Free Speech Union, said: This is a deeply worrying trend, but its just the tip of the iceberg.
In the past 12 months, the Free Speech Union has helped hundreds of students and academics whove got into trouble for pushing back against ideological orthodoxy on campus, whether its refusing to do unconscious bias training, criticising their universitys links with Stonewall, objecting to the decolonisation of the curriculum, or daring to point out that George Floyd had a criminal record.
Undergraduates are significantly less supportive of free expression than they were six years ago, according to research by the Higher Education Policy Institute.
The think tank surveyed 1,000 undergraduates and found that 61 per cent say when in doubt, their own university should ensure all students are protected from discrimination rather than allow unlimited free speech up from 37 per cent in 2016.
A spokesman for Universities UK said: Institutions do all they can to ensure a culture which encourages free speech and academic freedom so diverse groups and individuals can participate in debate and discussion, with mutual dignity and respect.
Vice-chancellors support universities playing a more active and visible role in promoting free speech and encouraging debate, and these latest figures show that universities and student unions continue to host tens of thousands of events each year, with less than one per cent not going ahead, often for logistical reasons such as late booking requests.
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Free speech 'stifled' as universities cancel record number of speakers - The Telegraph
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The Online Safety Bill could lead to the biggest curtailment of free speech in modern history – The Telegraph
Posted: at 9:15 am
Following Boris Johnsons resignation, the Conservative Party stands at a crossroad.
We have serious decisions to make about the future of our Party and our country. This will be one of the most important leadership elections in modern times. And it presents huge opportunities for a return to our values, including the protection of individual freedoms that are so often threatened by the excessive growth of the state. We have to make sure we take those chances.
The Commons is this afternoon debating a Bill, the Online Safety Bill, that is in parts wholly out of step with our tradition of protecting and promoting freedom of speech. I have long said, this Bill is a censors charter. Among the main reasons for this are the provisions in the Bill regarding so called legal but harmful expression.
Under the legislation, the Secretary of State will be granted the power to designate categories of speech as harmful, which social media companies will then have to deal with on their sites.
The Government insists this will not put us on a path to censorship. In fact, it claims that the Bill will actually strengthen free speech. But when legal speech is designated as harmful by the state, we all know what social-media firms will do. They will err on the side of censorship, not least because the Government could slap them with huge fines or even prison sentences if they do not.
As Conservatives, we should wholeheartedly oppose a two-tier speech system, where the public may be prohibited from saying things online that are lawful to say offline. The authoritarian and arbitrary distinction of legal but harmful speech is an attack on freedom and is as unConservative as it is unBritish.
Like many politicians and commentators, I know what it is like to be on the receiving end of online censorship.
Last year, I made a speech at Conservative Party Conference. My speech, which focused on the potential impact of vaccine passports on peoples rights, actively praised the COVID-19 vaccine. Yet despite this, the video was censored on YouTube, which claimed - bizarrely - that it went against expert consensus, whatever that meant.
I pored over my speech and found nothing inaccurate in my remarks, which almost solely focused on public-policy issues. YouTube relented and let the video go back up. But the episode served as yet another example as if any more were needed - of social-media companies attitude to free speech.
The current trajectory of the Bill threatens to compound the situation by bringing the state in as the enforcer of online censorship. It grants an enormous amount of executive power to the state in an entirely undemocratic way.
There will nothing to stop future Secretaries of State from using their powers to lean on intermediaries to remove speech they dislike. Indeed, the only scrutiny any Secretary of State will face when designating content harmful will come from a heavily whipped Delegated Legislation Committee.
Think about it: a future Secretary of State it could even be a Labour MP - with the power to effectively ban political content they do not want online. What would it have been like to go through the Brexit debates with that kind of infrastructure in place? It does not bear thinking about.
The Bill needs serious improvement in order to protect the civil liberties we hold so dear. Most importantly, it should not grant powers to the state to designate categories of free speech as legal but harmful.
Additionally, the Bill should not allow for the compromising of privacy on encrypted platforms like WhatsApp. We have the right to communicate without the Government spying on our every interaction.
Online safety is important to all of us. That is why I think we should make it a criminal offence to post content that encourages suicide or self-harm. We should do that under primary legislation, properly debated and challenged by the whole House of Commons.
But we must not compromise liberty under the guise of protection. Right now, the balance of the Bill is all wrong and it could end up being the biggest accidental curtailment of free speech in modern history.
The cut and thrust of a leadership contest will allow us to debate these issues and at least one of the leadership candidates has identified the Bill as being in need of reform. So as the Online Safety Bill returns to Parliament today, let us take the opportunity to reaffirm our commitment to protecting freedom of speech and radically reform the legislation.
We may not get another chance.
Rt Hon David Davis MP served as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and was previously Shadow Home Secretary
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The Online Safety Bill could lead to the biggest curtailment of free speech in modern history - The Telegraph
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LAWSUIT: Professor sues University of Washington after admins punish him for ‘inappropriate’ opinion – Foundation for Individual Rights in Education
Posted: at 9:15 am
Jessica Cruz, Twinkle Dont Blink
by FIRE
SEATTLE, July 13, 2022 When Professor Stuart Reges challenged the University of Washingtons position on land acknowledgements, administrators punished him, undermining his academic freedom. Today, backed by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, Reges sued the university to vindicate his First Amendment right to express his opinion even if it differs from the party line.
Colleges increasingly promote land acknowledgment statements that recognize indigenous ties to the land on which a college sits. On a list of syllabus best practices, UWs computer science department encourages professors to include such a statement and suggests using language developed by the universitys diversity office to acknowledge that our campus sits on occupied land. The fact that the statement could be adapted seemed clear until Reges wrote one that administrators did not like.
University administrators turned me into a pariah on campus because I included a land acknowledgment that wasnt sufficiently progressive for them, said Reges. Land acknowledgments are performative acts of conformity that should be resisted, even if it lands you in court. I am pleased that FIRE joined with me to fight back against University of Washingtons illegal viewpoint discrimination.
COURTESY PHOTOS FOR MEDIA USE
On Dec. 8, 2021, Reges criticized land acknowledgment statements in an email to faculty, and on Jan. 3, he included a modified version of UWs example statement in his syllabus: I acknowledge that by the labor theory of property the Coast Salish people can claim historical ownership of almost none of the land currently occupied by the University of Washington. Regess statement was a nod to John Lockes philosophical theory that property rights are established by labor.
On Jan. 4, the director of the computer science department, Magdalena Balazinska, ordered Reges to immediately remove his modified statement from his syllabus, labeling it inappropriate and offensive, and declaring that it created a toxic environment in the course. Reges refused because Balazinskas demand was viewpoint discriminatory other computer science professors included their own land acknowledgments on their syllabi. But UW did not investigate or punish them because those statements, unlike Regess, were consistent with the universitys viewpoint.
The university launched an official investigation into Reges for allegedly violating UWs unconstitutionally overbroad harassment policy. This investigation has now dragged on for over four months. Balazinska also created a competing section of Regess course (featuring pre-recorded lectures by another professor) so students wouldnt have to take a computer science class from someone who didnt parrot the universitys preferred opinions.
Its ironic that a university whose motto is let there be light would shepherd students into a shadow course to shield them from a professors opinion, said FIRE attorney Katlyn Patton. If UW encourages professors to take a political stance on their syllabi, it cannot punish those professors who diverge from the schools pre-approved stance. At UW, the message to faculty is clear: Toe the party line or say goodbye to your students.
As a public institution bound by the First Amendment, UW must uphold its professors right to free speech and cannot discriminate against them based on viewpoint. UW is free to encourage its faculty to include land acknowledgment statements in their syllabi, and even to suggest examples, but it may not mandate that they either use only approved statements or remain silent on the issue under threat of discipline.
UW ignored FIREs demands that the university protect the expressive freedoms of its faculty members.
UW accused Reges of creating a toxic environment, but the university is poisoning the free exchange of ideas, said FIRE attorney Josh Bleisch. Were taking UW to court so that Reges and other faculty can share their views on important issues without fear of reprisal.
Robert A. Bouvatte, Jr. of Robert A. Bouvatte, PLLC is serving as local counsel for the lawsuit.
The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to defending and sustaining the individual rights of all Americans to free speech and free thought the most essential qualities of liberty. FIRE recognizes that colleges and universities play a vital role in preserving free thought within a free society. To this end, we place a special emphasis on defending the individual rights of students and faculty members on our nations campuses, including freedom of speech, freedom of association, due process, legal equality, religious liberty, and sanctity of conscience.
CONTACT:
Katie Kortepeter, Media Relations Manager, FIRE: 215-717-3473; media@thefire.org
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VICTORY: Art institute reverses expulsion for student who retweeted sexual art – Foundation for Individual Rights in Education
Posted: at 9:15 am
KANSAS CITY, Mo., July 14, 2022 A student expelled from Kansas City Art Institute for retweeting sexual art won their appeal Tuesday, notching a victory for free expression. KCAI reversed the expulsion decision against student Ash Mikkelsen after a demand from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression.
When we have an art school investigating and punishing students for their artistic expression, we have a real problem, said FIRE program officer Sabrina Conza. Ash should have never had their academic future threatened because an art school didnt like the type of art they shared on their personal social media account.
Mikkelsen retweeted sexually explicit Japanese-style cartoons, known as hentai, on their personal, pseudonymous Twitter account. Allegedly, the art institute investigated Mikkelsen for sexual harassment in response to the complaint of another student, who found the account and told administrators about the images. Though Mikkelsen did not tag anyone from the university community in their Twitter posts or send messages related to the account to anyone , KCAI expelled Mikkelsen for their artistic expression and banned them from ever re-enrolling.
Im relieved that the school has recognized its mistake and rectified its actions, Mikkelsen said. Knowing that standing up for free expression will now allow other students to consume fictitious content without fearing punishment is icing on the cake.
KCAI attempted to justify investigating and then expelling Mikkelsen for non-Title IX hostile environment sexual harassment under its Student Code of Conduct. However, KCAI does not define sexual harassment under that code. Its patently unfair and unlawful to punish students under indefinite disciplinary standards. Moreover, Mikkelsens retweets dont come anywhere close to meeting the legal definition of sexual harassment.
As a private university, KCAI is not bound by the First Amendments protections for free speech. But KCAIs policies, which the college is morally and contractually required to uphold, state that the school is committed to freedom of expression, supports the rights of the campus community to engage in free speech and open assembly, and values intellectual and artistic curiosity together with critical and creative inquiry.
The school first notified Mikkelsen of the investigation into their Twitter account on June 15 and met with Mikkelsen the same day to discuss the investigation. On June 29, Mikkelsen again met with Assistant Dean of Students Joe Timson, who told Mikkelsen that they would be expelled for violating the Student Code of Conduct. Mikkelsen was not given an adequate chance to contest the allegations prior to the university imposing the most severe penalty possible.
KCAI gave Mikkelsen five business days to appeal the finding, which they did on July 6, with the assistance of FIRE Legal Network attorney Ted Green.
Im glad telling KCAI to van Gogh to hell resulted in Ash being cleared, Conza said. While KCAIs decision to overturn Ashs expulsion was correct, it should not have taken FIREs advocacy and an attorney to reach that conclusion. Unfortunately, the schools actions will have a chilling effect far past Ash to other students who fear punishment due to the nature of the art they create or share.
The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to defending and sustaining the individual rights of all Americans to free speech and free thought the most essential qualities of liberty. FIRE recognizes that colleges and universities play a vital role in preserving free thought within a free society. To this end, we place a special emphasis on defending the individual rights of students and faculty members on our nations campuses, including freedom of speech, freedom of association, due process, legal equality, religious liberty, and sanctity of conscience.
CONTACT:
Katie Kortepeter, Media Relations Manager, FIRE: 215-717-3473; media@thefire.org
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VICTORY: Art institute reverses expulsion for student who retweeted sexual art - Foundation for Individual Rights in Education
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How humans may populate the universe in the billions of years ahead – The Spectator
Posted: at 9:14 am
Im old enough to have viewed the grainy TV images of the first Moon landings by Apollo 11 in 1969. I can never look at the Moon without recalling Neil Armstrongs One small step for a man; one giant leap for mankind. It seems even more heroic in retrospect, considering how they depended on primitive computing and untested equipment.
Once the race to the Moon was won, there was no motivation for continuing with the space race and the gargantuan costs involved. No human since 1972 has travelled more than a few hundred miles from the Earth. Hundreds have ventured into space, but they have done no more than circle the Earth in low orbit. In the mid-1960s, Nasa absorbed 4 per cent of the US federal budget; today its 0.6 per cent. If that momentum had been maintained, there would surely be footprints on Mars by now.
Space technology has, nonetheless, burgeoned in the past four decades. We depend routinely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communication, navigation, environmental monitoring, surveillance and weather forecasting. Space telescopes orbiting far above the Earths atmosphere have beamed back images from the remotest cosmos. They have surveyed the sky in infrared, UV, X-ray, and gamma ray bands that dont penetrate the atmosphere and therefore cant be observed from the ground. They have revealed evidence for black holes and have probed the afterglow of creation the microwaves pervading all space, whose properties hold clues to the very beginning, when the entire observable cosmos was squeezed to microscopic size.
Of more immediate public appeal are the findings from spacecraft that have journeyed to all the planets of the solar system. Nasas New Horizons beamed back amazing pictures from Pluto, 12,000 times farther away than the Moon. The European Space Agencys Rosetta landed a robot on a comet. These spacecraft took five years to design and build and then nearly ten years journeying to their remote targets. The Cassini probe spent 13 years studying Saturn and its moons and was even more venerable: more than 20 years elapsed between its launch and its final plunge into Saturn in late 2017. These missions used 1990s technology; its not too hard to envisage how much more sophisticated todays follow-ups could be just think how drastically smartphones have advanced in those decades.
During this century, the entire solar system planets, moons, and asteroids will be explored and mapped by fleets of tiny, automated probes, interacting with each other like a flock of birds. Giant robotic fabricators will be able to construct, in space, solar energy collectors and other giant lightweight structures. Just this week, we have seen the first images from the James Webb telescope, which was launched in December a big advance on the Hubble telescope in deepening our vision of the cosmos. It can probe 98 per cent of cosmic history, the genesis of galaxies, and can perhaps find evidence of life on planets orbiting nearby stars. The telescopes successors, with oversize mirrors assembled in zero gravity, will further expand our vision of exoplanets, stars, galaxies and the wider universe. Future (and still larger) generations of instruments will be assembled by robots, which may also be used for space mining.
If there were a revival of the Apollo spirit and a renewed urge to build on its legacy, a permanent lunar base would be a credible next step. It could be built entirely by robots, bringing supplies from Earth and mining some from the Moon. An especially propitious site for human habitation is the Shackleton crater, at the lunar south pole, 21km across and with a rim 4km high. Because of the craters location, its rim is always in sunlight and so escapes the extreme monthly temperature contrasts experienced on the rest of the Moons surface. Moreover, there may be a lot of ice in the craters perpetually dark interior crucial for sustaining a colony.
Hopefully, people who are alive today will walk on the Moon, and even on Mars. The future of human spaceflight lies not with governments, but with privately funded adventurers who will be prepared to participate in a cut-price programme far riskier than western nations could. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, or rival effort Blue Origin, bankrolled by Jeff Bezos, will soon offer orbital flights to paying customers.
These ventures bringing a Silicon Valley culture into a domain long dominated by Nasa and a few aerospace conglomerates have shown its possible to recover and reuse the launch rockets first stage, presaging real cost savings. They have innovated and improved rocketry far faster than Nasa or ESA has done. The future role of the national agencies will become more akin to an airport than to an airline.
More importantly, private enterprises can be less risk-averse than Nasa and find volunteers who are willing to tolerate greater dangers than a western government could impose on publicly funded civilian astronauts. So its these cut-price ventures with private sponsorship that should be at the forefront of human space travel.
Later this century, courageous thrill-seekers in the mould of (say) Sir Ranulph Fiennes, or the early polar explorers may well establish bases independent of Earth. Elon Musk himself (now aged 51) says he wants to die on Mars but not on impact.
But what is the longer-range scenario? Musk and my late colleague Stephen Hawking envisaged that the first settlers on Mars would be followed by millions of others aiming to escape the Earths problems. But this is a dangerous delusion. Coping with climate change is a doddle compared to terraforming Mars. Nowhere in our solar system offers an environment even as clement as the Antarctic, the top of Everest, or the ocean bed.
Because humans will be ill-adapted to Martian conditions, they will have a more compelling incentive than those of us on Earth to redesign themselves and this may not remain science fiction. Indeed, its surely on the cards that human beings their mentality and their physique may become malleable through the deployment of genetic modification.
For this to happen, two advances are needed: first, deep analysis of the human genome to determine which combination of genes optimise specific desired qualities; and second, the ability to synthesise a genome with these properties.
Optimists suspect that by the end of the century designer babies will become conceivable (in both senses of that word). One hopes that such techniques will be constrained, because they are risky: the genome is so complicated that attempts to modify it may have unenvisaged downsides that outweigh any benefits.
Another futuristic concept, more familiar from science fiction, is that our descendants could become cyborgs, their mental capacities being enhanced by linking the brain (or plugging it in) to electronic attachments. Its spacefaring adventurers, not those of us comfortably adapted to life on Earth, who will lead the post-human era evolving within a few centuries into a new species. This evolution, best described as secular intelligent design, could proceed on the timescale of technological advance, potentially thousands of times faster than Darwinian selection.
Moreover, there may be limits to the capacity of organic brains; perhaps humans are near this limit already. If our descendants make the transition from flesh and blood to fully inorganic intelligences, they wont need an atmosphere. And they may prefer zero-gravity, especially for constructing massive artefacts. So its in deep space not on Earth, nor even on Mars that non-biological brains may develop powers that humans cant even imagine.
Billions of years lie ahead. The Sun formed 4.5 billion years ago: its taken most of that immense time for life to evolve from its still-mysterious beginnings into the immensely complex biosphere of which were a part. Humans are not the culmination the top of the tree. We may in fact be nearer the beginning than the end of a cosmic process.
The Sun is still less than halfway through its life: it will survive six billion more years before its fuel runs out. And the expanding universe will continue far longer perhaps for ever. So even if intelligent life had originated only on the Earth, it need not remain a trivial feature of the cosmos: it could initiate a diaspora whereby ever more complex intelligence spreads through the whole galaxy. Interstellar voyages would hold no terrors for near-immortal electronic entities. Theres plenty of time ahead.
Even though we are not the terminal branch of an evolutionary tree, humans could claim truly cosmic significance for jump-starting the transition to electronic entities, spreading their influence far beyond the Earth.
This raises a further question: will our remote progeny be the first intelligences to spread through the galaxy? Or will they encounter aliens already out there, which originated from a planet around an older star where evolution had a headstart over us?
Perhaps the galaxy already teems with advanced life, and our descendants will plug in to a galactic community as rather junior members. On the other hand, Earths intricate biosphere may be unique and searches for aliens may fail. Our tiny planet this pale blue dot floating in space could be the most important place in the entire cosmos.
Either way, our cosmic habitat seems tuned to be an abode for life. Even if we are alone in the universe, we may be far from the final destination of this drive towards complexity and consciousness.
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How humans may populate the universe in the billions of years ahead - The Spectator
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Bitcoin hodlers will ‘soon see why’ $21.6K BTC price pump is fake trader – Cointelegraph
Posted: at 9:13 am
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to one-week highs on July 17 amid warnings that traders should not trust current BTC price action.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingViewshowed BTC/USD reaching $21,600 on Bitstamp, its best performance since last Sunday.
The pair saw a fresh leg up during the weekend, this nonetheless coming on the back of thin, retail-driven "out-of-hours" liquidity with institutions out of the picture.
With Bitcoin prone to "fakeout" moves both up and down in such conditions, there was thus little appetite to believe that current trajectory would endure as the weekly close loomed.
"Don't let CT noise change your vision of how things really are," popular social media account, Il Capo of Crypto, told followers on the day, referencing Crypto Twitter narratives.
Also preparing to exit the market, it appeared, were traders, as major exchange Binance saw heightened inflows in the 24 hours to the time of writing.
According to data still being compiled from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, on July 17, inflows neared 17,500 BTC, the most on a single day since June 22.
Nonetheless, some commentators remained upbeat on the short-term outlook. Cointelegraph contributor Michal van de Poppe, who had called for $21,200 to break for upside to continue, got his wish as the market picked up overnight.
"Overall, strength is still there and I'm assuming further upside is happening. Crucial barrier for now; $21K," he had explained prior to the move.
As Cointelegraph reported, potential upside targets included $22,000 and the 200-week moving average at around $22,600.
The latest order book data from Binance via analytics resource Material Indicators meanwhile showed a fresh wall of buy support clustered at the $21,200 breakthrough point, worth some $20 million.
On weekly timeframes, the July 17 close had the potential to be significant.
Related:Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever 'extreme fear' period
At $21,300, Bitcoin would not only seal its second "green" weekly candle but also its highest weekly close since early June.
A matter of $500 nonetheless stood between that outcome and continuation of the downward trend, since the July 10 close had come in at around $20,850.
That event, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted at the time, marked a lower high for the week, alongside "declining buy-side volume."
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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Bitcoin hodlers will 'soon see why' $21.6K BTC price pump is fake trader - Cointelegraph
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For bitcoin to bottom here’s what the market wants to see and it could mean a further 30% drop – CNBC
Posted: at 9:13 am
Cryptocurrencies have taken a tumble in 2022.
Chesnot | Getty Images
An improvement in macroeconomic factors, a particular trading pattern and a further shakeout of companies and projects could be the key ingredients required for bitcoin and the broader crypto market to bottom, industry players told CNBC.
Bitcoin has plummeted more than 70% from its record high in November with around $2 trillion wiped off the value of the entire cryptocurrency market.
For the last few weeks, bitcoin has been trading within a tight range between $19,000 and $22,000 with no major catalyst to the upside and traders trying to figure out where the bottom is.
Here are some of the factors that could help the crypto market find a floor.
Bitcoin has been hurt by the macroeconomic situation of soaring inflation that has forced the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks into hiking interest rates which has hurt risk assets such as stocks.
Cryptocurrencies have seen some correlation with U.S. stock markets and have fallen in tandem with stocks.
There are also fears of a recession but an improving macroeconomic picture could help the crypto market find the bottom.
"I think if inflation is under control, the economy is under control, there is no really severe recession" then the market will stabilize, CK Zheng, co-founder of a cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund ZX Squared, told CNBC in an interview.
U.S. inflation data for June came in hotter-than-expected on Wednesday, deepening fears that the Fed will get more aggressive in its fight to tame rising prices. However, there are some signs it could be peaking.
If there are clues that the economy and inflation are "getting under control," that could help the crypto market find a bottom, according to Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno.
"If we see signs of this this month or even over the next few months, it would give more confidence to the market that a bottom is in across all risk assets including equities and crypto," Ayyar said.
Meanwhile, a "softer" Fed and the peaking of U.S. dollar strength, could help the market find a bottom, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. Butterfill said a weaker economic outlook could push the Fed to slow down its tightening push.
"A turn around in Fed policy and the consequent peaking of the DXY [dollar index] would also help define a true floor, we believe this is likely to happen at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the summer," Butterfill said, referring to an annual meeting of central bankers.
One of the key features of the latest boom and bust cycle in crypto has been the amount of leverage in the system and the contagion that has caused.
Firstly, there have been lending platforms that have promised retail investors high yields for depositing their crypto. One of those companies is Celsius, which last month was forced to pause withdrawals as it faces a liquidity issue. That's because Celsius lends out this crypto from its depositors to others willing to pay a high yield and then pockets the profit. That profit is then supposed to pay for the yield Celsius offers to its retail customers. But as prices crashed, that business model was put to the test.
Another company that highlights the issue with excess leverage is crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital or 3AC, which was known for its bullish bets on the industry. 3AC has an extensive list of counterparties that it is connected to and has borrowed money from.
One of those is Voyager Digital, whichfiled for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protectionafter 3AC defaulted on roughly $670 million from the company.
A number of other companies including BlockFi and Genesis also reportedly had exposure to 3AC.
Three Arrows Capital has itself plunged into liquidation.
"The deleveraging process we don't know if it is complete or not. I think it is still in the process of washing out the weak players," Zheng said, adding that when there are no more surprises with companies collapsing, that could help the market find a bottom.
CoinShares's Butterfill said so-called miners, which use specialized high-power computers to validate transactions on crypto networks, could be the next victims of the washout. With crypto prices under pressure, there will be many mining operations that are unprofitable. Butterfill notes there have been some mining start-ups that raised funding last and ordered equipment that has either not been delivered or turned on.
"A collapse in one of these mining startups or the associate lender is likely and would help define a trough to the cryptomarket," Butterfill told CNBC.
Luno's Ayyar explained some of the trading patterns that might help define a bottom for the market. He said there could be a "capitulation candle," where the price of bitcoin drops even further and "wipes out the last remaining weak hands," before "moving back up strongly."
If this happens, that indicates "liquidity has been captured at lower levels and the market is now ready to go back up," Ayyar said.
He noted that this happened in March 2020 when bitcoin fell more than 30% in a day before steadily climbing over the subsequent weeks.
A second pattern could be an "accumulation phase" where bitcoin bottoms and spends a few months trading within a range before moving higher.
In both cases, that could see bitcoin drop further to between $13,000 to $14,000, which would be a roughly 30% drop from the cryptocurrency's price on Wednesday.
Zheng of ZX Squared said that bitcoin at between $13,000 and $15,000 is a possibility. But if institutional investors step in then that could help to support prices.
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For bitcoin to bottom here's what the market wants to see and it could mean a further 30% drop - CNBC
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What is Bitcoin whale watching and how to track Bitcoin whales? – Cointelegraph
Posted: at 9:13 am
Whales are held responsible for sudden price fluctuations in the crypto and traditional markets every so often. Given their capability to manipulate market prices, it becomes paramount for the general Bitcoin (BTC) investors to understand the nuances that make one a whale and their overall impact on trading.
Wallet addresses that contain large amounts of BTC are identified as Bitcoin whales. Dumping or transferring large amounts of BTC from one wallet to another negatively impacts the prices, resulting in losses for the smaller traders. As a result, tracking Bitcoin whales in real-time allows small-time traders to make profitable trades amid a fluctuating market.
Despite Bitcoin's global and decentralized nature, tracking down and monitoring whales simply boils down to accessing readily available trading data from crypto exchanges and services. There are four primary ways to track whale activities, which include monitoring known whale addresses, order books, sudden changes in market capitalization and trades on crypto exchanges.
Monitoring known whales provide a headstart to smaller investors as the likeliness of coming across a whale trade increases significantly. Moreover, keeping track of market changes via order books and trades on crypto exchanges indicates incoming whale trades, which can be leveraged to profit during volatility.
The crypto community also uses free services that inform investors about successful whale trades, often including information about the senders and receivers wallets and the amount. One of the most popular services for automatically tracking whale trades is @whale_alert on Twitter, which issues alerts related to large transactions as shown above.
Related: Bitcoin whales still 'hibernating' as BTC price nears $21K
In a recent market update, Cointelegraph revealed that on-chain data suggested that the largest Bitcoin hodlers were reluctant to act at current prices. BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira supported the above finding by highlighting a "hibernation" continuing among whale wallet. He added:
Moreover, numerous altcoins continue to mimic Bitcoins bearish trends as whales await a greener sentiment across the crypto market.
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What is Bitcoin whale watching and how to track Bitcoin whales? - Cointelegraph
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Bitcoin requires an immense amount of energy. Heres why thats sparking a crypto backlash – PBS NewsHour
Posted: at 9:13 am
The first time Jackie Sawicky learned that a Bitcoin mining operation was coming to Corsicana, a rural Texas city 60 miles south of Dallas, was on April 27, when she happened upon a Facebook video of a meeting at the local public library. The featured speaker was Chad Everett Harris, the upbeat executive vice president of Riot Blockchain, a Bitcoin mining company based in Castle Rock, Colorado. Bald and comfortably plump, Harris wore a suit jacket and open-collared shirt over blue jeans and delivered his message with the verve of a motivational speaker.
Were coming to Corsicana to build the largest [Bitcoin mining facility] in the world, Harris announced, describing the four-building, 400,000 square-foot complex that will occupy 265 acres with number-crunching machines. We turn energy into opportunity.
READ MORE: Landmark bill to limit energy-intensive cryptomining passes New York Legislature
Riot already operates the largest Bitcoin mine in the country in Rockdale, Texas. When someone in the audience asked Harris what drew him to Corsicana, the seat of Navarro County (pronounced Nah-verr-o in local parlance), he answered without hesitation. The Navarro Switch! he said, referring to part of the 192-mile, 345-kilovolt transmission line that moves power from West Texas to eastern parts of the state, where demand is high. And water, he added. You can pay a lot to bring power somewhere. But you cant get water.
He literally told us, Sawicky says, that he was coming to exploit our resources.
To some people, Bitcoin the most valuable and well-known of the 10,000 or so currently circulating cryptocurrencies is nothing more than a pyramid scheme; to others, it represents the future of money: decentralized, unregulated, and tracked on a virtual ledger in the digital cloud that everyone can inspect, known as a blockchain. But its production consumes dizzying quantities of electricity. In May of 2022, the worlds sum total of Bitcoin mining operations had an annual energy budget nearly equal to the entire country of Argentina, or the Czech Republic, or, according to Cambridge Universitys Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, all the tea kettles in England boiling water for 26 years.
In warmer climates, cryptocurrency-mining by the Bitcoin method, known as proof of work, typically needs water to cool those machines running fast and hot as they play the Bitcoin lottery (Riot says it will use a new technology in Corsicana that reduces water use). Proof-of-work mining is essentially a high-stakes guessing game: Computers spend all day throwing out random 64-digit numbers until one matches the right number, as determined by Bitcoins consensus-managed protocol. On the worldwide network of Bitcoin servers, you have 200 quintillion guesses every second of the day nonstop, explains Alex de Vries, a researcher at the School of Business and Economics at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. And even despite that, only one machine gets it right every 10 minutes.
The correct answer gets logged on Bitcoins blockchain, and the winner gets a reward: 6.2 Bitcoins. Thats not as much money as it used to be: In the coins current slump, each coin nets about $20,000, down from a high in November 2021 of just under $68,000.
Due to its high demand for electricity, proof-of-work cryptocurrency mining has not been welcomed in every corner of the world. Miners seek cheap energy to maximize their profits, but their energy-intensive activities typically drive electricity costs up for everyone. Even when mining plants run on renewable energy, critics say, they often exploit existing clean energy resources at the expense of ordinary consumers, who are then forced to buy more expensive, and often dirtier, power.
FILE IMAGE: A bank of cryptocurrency miners operates at the Scrubgrass Plant in Kennerdale, Pennsylvania, U.S., March 8, 2022. Alan Freed/Reuters
In Bonner, Montana, a small city in Missoula County, the Bitcoin company HyperBlock set up in 2016 and almost immediately began cutting into the communitys supply of hydropower from the Salish-Kootenai Dam; County Commissioner Dave Strohmaier called the plants energy use grotesque and equal to as much as one-third of the countys household demand. HyperBlock went bankrupt when Bitcoin plummeted at the start of the COVID pandemic. The county subsequently enacted a first-of-its-kind zoning ordinance requiring, among other things, that cryptominers supply their own, new renewable energy sources.
A similar scenario has played out in upstate New York. The region initially drew cryptominers with its abundant supply of cheap hydropower electricity from the 2.6 gigawatt Niagara Power Project. In 2017, when the Bitcoin company Coinmint set up in the vacant space behind the Family Dollar Store in Plattsburgh, a city of less than 20,000 residents, electricity costs were one-third of the national average. Bitcoin miners had registered as industrial consumers, says Colin Read, a professor of economics and finance at the State University of New York, Plattsburgh, who was also Plattsburghs mayor at the time. And our industrial rate was less than 2 cents per kilowatt hour, which might be the lowest in the world.
But Plattsburgh, which manages its own municipal utility, also has a monthly quota for electricity use. If the city exceeds that quota, it has to go looking elsewhere for electricity, forcing everyones utility bills up. In the winter of 2018, residents who heated their homes with electricity saw costs rise 30 to 40 percent, according to Read.
Plattsburgh quickly imposed a moratorium on new crypto-mining operations while city officials figured out how to make it more efficient. We imposed a regulation that says Bitcoin miners have to recycle a share of their heat, Read says. After that, they simply werent interested in coming here anymore. They always migrate to the places with the least regulation.
Bitcoin mining has faced similar challenges in other countries. China, despite once being the worlds largest supplier of the application-specific integrated chips used in crypto-mining, declared all virtual currency activities illegal in the fall of 2021, in part because the mining produces high carbon emissions. (The countrys central bank also wants to develop its own digital coin.) Icelands national power company, Landsvirkjun, which once attracted cryptocurrency miners with its climate-friendly geothermal energy, began denying power to new miners in late 2021. Even Iran, where the oversight-free nature of peer-to-peer currency had enabled entrepreneurs to dodge international sanctions, found crypto-mining so burdened its grid that the government was forced to ban it first for four months beginning in May 2021, then again the following December, as heating demands strained its electricity supply.
Neither energy consumption nor water nor Bitcoins volatility have deterred the elected leaders of Texas, who have welcomed the industry with effervescent enthusiasm. Blockchain is a booming business Texas needs to be involved in, Governor Greg Abbott tweeted last summer after signing into law a bill recognizing cryptocurrency in the states commercial code. (Texas was the second state to do so, after Wyoming.) And the miners have come, reveling in the states wide-open spaces, where the rattling fans that cool their hard-working rigs can operate without disturbing the neighbors, and abundant cheap energy keeps overhead low. Whereas once China hosted 75 percent of the crypto-mining business, now the United States is home to 40 percent of the activity, and one-quarter of it happens in Texas.
Three days after Harriss announcement at the Corsicana library, Jackie Sawicky founded Concerned Citizens of Navarro County to marshal opposition to Riot Blockhains plans for Corsicana. More than 600 people have signed a petition to stop the mine, and the group has more than 500 members on its Facebook page, where Sawicky and others post news stories about their states grid and water woes.
READ MORE: From the stock market to crypto, a punishing six months for investors
Were going to be paying increased electricity bills to upgrade ERCOTs grid to accommodate these places, she says, referring to Texass independent system operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The grid notoriously slumped under the strain of winter storm Uri in 2021, cutting power to more than 4 million homes and businesses, many of which relied on electricity to heat their buildings. Hundreds of people died from extreme cold exposure or the failure of medical equipment.
Harris has insisted in news stories that mining only uses excess power when demand is light; when the grid is overloaded, ERCOT issues them credits for shutting down, which miners can do within minutes. In that way, he says, Riots participation in demand response can actually stabilize ERCOTs unsettled and isolated grid.
Thats at least partially true, says de Vries, the Dutch researcher. But the companys participation in demand response isnt exactly altruistic. Riot Blockchains filings with the Securities Exchange Commission, he points out, state plainly that the company will pay a mere 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour for its electricity, a full 10 to 11 cents less than the going residential rate. That figure represents our contractual cost of power, confirms Trystine Payfer, spokesperson for Riot Blockchain, minus the credits the company earns for participating in the utilitys demand-response program. That program is a sweet deal: It means that, when electricity supply is tight and Riot voluntarily shuts down, the company earns credits for power. If electricity prices shoot up to $9 per kilowatt hour, as they did during 2021s winter storm, it might be more profitable to unplug from the grid than to keep mining Bitcoin.
Our utility provider does not actually pay us the credited amount each month, Payfer stresses, rather, we have the right to apply the credits toward future [bills].
Nevertheless, de Vries argues, its hard to see how that wont drive prices up for everyone. The utility still has to buy the power, he notes, and the credits it issues under the demand-response program come from the same pool of money other customers fund when they pay their bills.
We have a saying here in Texas, Sawicky says. Dont piss on my boots and tell me its raining. And thats pretty much whats going on.
Not every community has fought Bitcoin mining the way Sawickys group has. Riot Blockchains Rockdale facility, initially built on 100 formerly forested acres near the former Alcoa aluminum plant, has by most accounts been a boon to the community, which had long been a company town revolving around the now-shuttered factory. We rebuilt the animal shelter, Harris said at the Corsicana launch meeting. When I learned kids didnt have lights in their parks, we put lights in the ball fields. For a year, we rented an entire hotel. Bitdeer, another Bitcoin mining company, set up shop nearby and bought emergency ventilator equipment for Rockdales volunteer firefighters.
But Corsicana, Sawicky argues, is different. People came to Navarro County for farming and ranching and open space. We have wildlife. We have two pair of nesting bald eagles and tons of migrating birds. I worry about all of them.
Mostly she worries about electricity prices. Electricity prices in Texas are already up 70 percent over what they were a year ago. We have a 15 percent poverty rate in Navarro County, Sawicky notes. We cant pay more for electricity than we already do.
FILE IMAGE: A geothermal energy plant in Ahuachapan, El Salvador, where the Salvadoran president has expanded that infrastructure to begin bitcoin mining projects. Image taken June 16, 2021. Photo by Camilo Freedman/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Some ambitious Bitcoin miners have tried to eliminate their pressure on utilities by buying up their own fossil-fuel plants to power their mining activities. The coal-fired Greenidge power plant in New Yorks Finger Lakes region, decommissioned in 2010 and revived seven years later as a gas-fired plant, in 2021 became a gas-powered Bitcoin mine; 120 miles west, in North Tonawanda, Canadian cryptominer Digihost intends to inhabit a still-operational gas-fired power plant using the plants power to mine its coin.
But more such projects in New York State could be in peril if Governor Kathy Hochul signs a pending bill instituting a two-year moratorium on new fossil-fueled proof-of-work crypto-mining in the state. The bill, passed by New York legislators on June 3, is designed to give the state time to evaluate how the technology fits within the states 2019 climate law, which commits New York to 100 percent zero-emissions electricity by 2040. The state law would be the first in the country restricting cryptocurrency mining.
Read doesnt think the bill does enough. Even if Bitcoin miners arent using hydrocarbons, he says, theyre displacing renewable energy that would be used for other purposes. And theres no easy way to measure that. Bitcoin, he says, will continue to increase the use of fossil-gas-fired power in the state, regardless of whether miners use clean energy or not. Nor has Governor Hochul committed to signing the legislation. Both she and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who has asked her to consider a veto, have received significant donations from the crypto industry.
There are ways to reduce the energy use and, consequently, the climate impact of cryptocurrency mining. Some energy companies have developed plans to capture fugitive methane from oil and gas drilling and divert it to electricity plants dedicated to Bitcoin mining. Crusoe Energy has already begun such operations in North Dakota and Colorado and plans to expand to Texas and New Mexico. Another company, the Casper, Wyoming-based JAI Energy was specifically founded to take advantage of waste gas to mine Bitcoin. The process could theoretically be a net win for the climate, as methane from the oil fields is typically ether flared or vented, releasing fast-acting planet-warming gases into the atmosphere.
An even better alternative, Read says, is to trade proof-of-work mining for another process, known as proof of stake. It doesnt use exorbitant amounts of energy, because it doesnt involve gazillions of computers taking 200 quintillion stabs per second at a random number. Instead of trying to win the lottery in 10 minutes, he explains, you put down a large deposit proving you have a stake in the outcome. You ensure you dont corrupt the system when you verify an entry on the cryptocurrencys blockchain. If you fail to verify properly, you lose your investment.
Proof-of-stake means you can have everything in crypto without having all these environmental problems, Read says. Several currencies, such as Cardano and Peercoin, use proof-of-stake exclusively; Ethereum, the second most-valuable coin next to Bitcoin, is in the process of transitioning to proof-of-stake.
In fact, almost all cryptocurrency currencies are mined with proof-of-stake right now, Read says. We just dont hear about it so much because Bitcoin represents 99 percent of all capitalization in cryptocurrency. There may come a day when you get auto and home loans on a smartphone with decentralized, digital currency. But that currency probably wont be energy-devouring proof-of-work Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Read says, is cryptocurrencys Model T.
This article is reproduced with permission from Yale Environment 360. It was first published on June 21, 2022. Find the original story here.
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Bitcoin Up, Stocks Down as BTC Correlation to Nasdaq Weakens – Decrypt
Posted: at 9:13 am
While the crypto and stock markets both remain bearish, Bitcoins correlation with stocks is close to its lowest point this year. The 40-day correlation between the largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq 100 index is now below 0.50, according to Bloomberg data.
Bitcoin is trading for $20,712 at the time of writing, a 2.5% increase in the past 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap. In contrast, U.S. stocks were hit hard on Thursday as investors worry about the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates. And it isnt just the tech-heavy Nasdaq: global equities markets also took a beating on Thursdayalong with oilas more investors move towards holding onto their greenbacks.
Correlation with the Nasdaq is measured on a -1 to 1 scale: -1 means the prices always move in opposite directions; 1 means they move together. Today, Bitcoin is at its lowest correlation with the Nasdaq since early January.
This is a very different story from as recently as April, when its 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq was at its highest level in over a year.
The correlation is still positive, which means that Bitcoin and tech stocks still move in similar directions. But if the correlation continues to weaken, it might be taken as a sign crypto has seen the bottom and is ready to rebound.
For most of the pandemic, Bitcoin has moved in the same direction as stocks. Right now it is down nearly 70% from its all-time high last November near $69,000. This is largely because crypto is seen as a risky asset by many big investors, and we are in a risk-off environment as sky-high inflation hits virtually every country on the planet. Political uncertainty with Russias war in Ukraine and supply chain chaos from China make a recession seemingly imminent.
Since 2020, Bitcoin had been going more mainstream than ever as major companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla added it to their balance sheets and even previous Wall Street skeptics changed their tune, leading Bitcoin to perform like a tech stock. Until it crashed in May.
Could the crypto rebound be in full swing?
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Bitcoin Up, Stocks Down as BTC Correlation to Nasdaq Weakens - Decrypt
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