Monthly Archives: June 2022

LONDON NATO on Wednesday formally invited Finland and Sweden to join the military alliance after Turkey dropped its objections this week.

In a statement released on Wednesday, the 30-member military alliance said: Today, we have decided to invite Sweden and Finland to become members of NATO, and agreed to sign the Accession Protocols."

Turkey dropped its objections on Tuesday, with the countrys president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stating that he had received full cooperation from both Sweden and Finland against the Kurdish militant group PKK and its allies. The countries agreed to drop their restrictions on selling munitions to Turkey, as well as to help in extraditing suspected militants back. This came after more than three hours of deliberation during a NATO summit in Madrid.

Speaking at a press conference alongside Erdogan, President Biden said: "I want to particularly thank you for what you did putting together the situation with regard to Finland and Sweden."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center right, meets British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, center left, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid on Wednesday. (Turkish Presidency/Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO and called it a historic decision.

However, more steps are ahead before the Nordic countries can become members. As with membership in the European Union, prospective countries must adhere to several reforms. They are invited to join the Membership Action Plan, which helps countries prepare for full membership within the alliance.

Finnish President Sauli Niinist said the news was one step forward, with Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen tweeting: Today saw the power of diplomacy and negotiation."

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that his war in Ukraine, which started in February as a special military operation, was partly due to NATOs possible expansion. But in the wake of the invasion, Sweden and Finland applied for NATO.

Russia warned the Nordic countries that joining NATO would be a grave mistake.

This will be another gross mistake with far-reaching consequences, the Kremlins deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said in May. The fact that the security of Sweden, like that of Finland for that matter, will not be strengthened as a result of this decision is completely obvious to us.

Biden said in Madrid on Wednesday that Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO is exactly what [Putin] didn't want.

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NATO formally invites Sweden and Finland to join alliance after Turkey ...

Moves by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) this week reportedly put the alliance on its most dangerous footing with Russia since the Cold War. Is that true?

Yes, NATOs new Strategic Concept adopted at this weeks summit defines Russia as the most significant and direct threat to Allies security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. Tensions have not been this high along the NATO-Russia frontier since before the end of the Cold War. NATO and Russian planes are conducting aggressive reconnaissance flights in the narrow airspace over the Baltic Sea, and both sides will likely step up those flights now that Sweden and Finland are on track to join NATO. The current dispute over Russian access to its exclave on the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad, through Lithuania highlights the potential for conflict to spread beyond Ukraine into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Belarus is also becoming more of a concern to NATO as Russia increasingly uses it to stage attacks on Ukraine.

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As the West focuses on the challenge of exporting grain from Ukraine to deal with a looming global food crisis, there have been calls for NATO to break the Russian blockade on the Ukrainian port of Odesa on the Black Sea. As always, lurking in the background is the risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons. Russian saber-rattling has diminished in recent weeks, but it will likely reemerge with greater urgency should the situation on the battlefield turn against Moscow. The paucity of active communication channels between Russia and NATO members only heightens the risks.

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NATO has vowed to defend every inch of its members territory against Russia, and it is taking major steps to deter possible attacks. It will continue to augment its forces along the NATO-Russia border in Eastern Europe. (At the summit, several allies announced plans to send additional forces to the region.) Likewise, NATO plans to build up its Response Force from forty thousand to three hundred thousand troops. Set up twenty years ago, the force was a high-readiness contingent capable of deploying quickly to deal with various contingencies, most often for disaster relief. After Russias invasion of Ukraine, its focus has shifted to defense of vulnerable allies along the frontier with Russia.

Russias strategic position has deteriorated substantially as a consequence of President Vladimir Putins decision to invade Ukraine. NATO is more unified in opposition to Russia than it has been for years, NATO has more forces along its borders than ever since the end of the Cold War, and Finland and Sweden are set to join the alliance. Talking to the press along with U.S. President Joe Biden, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted the irony: Putin wanted less NATO on his borders, but because of his actions, hes getting more.

Nevertheless, Russias reaction has been surprisingly mild. Senior officials have declared that Russia will take compensatory steps to guarantee its security, which could include additional troops and perhaps nuclear forces in its border regions. However, in May, Putin said that Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden and that their joining NATO does not pose a direct threat, as long as NATO does not build up military contingents and infrastructure in those countries. What lies behind this stance is unclear, but, given the tough battle in Ukraine, Putin might not want to take on additional problems.

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NATOs new force posture and strategic concept are not likely to prompt Putin to rethink his Ukraine strategy. He is making slow but steady progress on the battlefield in the east and south. Nothing suggests that he believes that the Wests provision of more sophisticated weaponry is going to shift fortunes on the ground. But the new circumstances in Europe do pose a long-term strategic challenge to Russia. Increasingly isolated in Europe, Putin was surely pleased to attend the recent summits of the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and of the Caspian states to underscore that Russia has friends and allies elsewhere. Whether they can compensate for the loss of European ties is another matter.

The summit was an impressive show of resolve to counter Russias aggression, including through continued diplomatic, economic, and military support for Ukraine. NATO pledged to further expand its military support for its vulnerable allies along the Russian frontier. In particular, the United States announced that it will establish a permanent headquarters for its V Corps in Poland. Most important was the eleventh-hour agreement that Turkey reached with Finland and Sweden, by which Ankara lifted its objections to their joining the alliance and allowed NATO to begin the accession process.

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However, challenges remain. Burden-sharing is a perennial issue: Even after Russias assault on Ukraine, the majority of members fall short of their commitment to spend at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. The laggards include, most importantly, Germany, although it has taken steps recently to meet that target as a multiyear average. Moreover, in the weeks ahead, the alliances resolve will be tested, as strains over rising inflation and concerns over energy and food supply mount across the Euro-Atlantic region. In recent weeks, France, Germany, and Italy have expressed interest in finding a negotiated settlement to the conflict, which would likely leave some seized Ukrainian territory in Russian hands. That position is vehemently opposed by Poland and the Baltic states, among others. Though those differences were pushed into the background during this summit, they have not gone away.

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NATO Countries Signal Resolve at Summit: What Does It Mean for Russia? - Council on Foreign Relations

Normally in diplomatic circles, people are going to be a little circumspect in criticizing your internal domestic policies, Connolly said, adding that in each of the four separate encounters, foreign ministers initiated the conversation and made a point of sharing with me their sense of outrage.

Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade

The Supreme Court has voted to strike down Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that upheld abortion rights for the past 50 years.

The episode harkened back to Donald Trumps presidency, when lawmakers and diplomats routinely fielded questions from foreign counterparts expressing concern, anxiety and even outrage at the then-presidents statements and behavior. While other lawmakers attending the NATO summit downplayed the abortion rulings impact on the gathering, President Joe Biden acknowledged in a Thursday press conference that the Courts recent moves have been destabilizing.

After defeating Trump on a promise to show the rest of the world a more stable America, Biden is now contending with a high court that could make that job even harder. Connolly warned that the Roe reversal risks damaging U.S. credibility and entrenching a view among many NATO partners that the U.S. cant be trusted with its commitment to the 21st-century values that its leaders routinely tout elsewhere.

All the reassurances of were back and dont look under the curtain of those last four years are eroded to some extent with this, Connolly said. It erodes confidence in our system. And thats pretty important when youre supposed to be helping to lead a military alliance to take on the big bad Russians.

Connolly declined to name the foreign ministers who spoke up at the dinner. Eleven of the 30 NATO foreign ministers are women, and several NATO heads of state and government released statements affirming the right to an abortion immediately after Fridays court decision. French officials even said they would move to codify abortion rights in their constitution.

A senior Biden administration official said that the abortion issue had not come up among leaders at the NATO summit, at least as of Wednesday.

Members of a separate bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers, led by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), said they had heard little from their counterparts about the abortion issue since arriving in Spain. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), another member on the trip, said the senators themselves havent even talked about the Roe decision during their travels in part due to its political radioactivity back home.

I have fairly strong views on it, and so do a lot of members on the delegation ... That subject [of abortion] probably divides us more than any other, Coons said, adding: If your goal is to represent our country well in a critical moment for the future of NATO, focus on the things that bring us together. We will have plenty of time immediately when we return to disagree sharply.

Shaheen was asked at a NATO public forum event on Wednesday whether the U.S. has lost credibility on global womens issues as a result of the Supreme Court decision. While she reaffirmed that she disagrees with the Courts ruling and supports abortion rights, Shaheen countered that the U.S. has led in promoting the roles of women in foreign policy decision-making at the State Department and the Defense Department.

Tillis, meanwhile, appeared to defend the Courts decision, as have the vast majority of Republicans in Washington. He dismissed its impact on Americas role in the world.

The issue the Supreme Court settled is whether or not it was a constitutional right or something that was a legal decision, a legislative decision that the states can make, Tillis said. And well see how that plays out over time.

Some Democratic lawmakers, though, have leaned into the fallout from the abortion ruling on the global stage, emphasizing what they believe it says about American democracy that a group of unelected justices can reverse policies that are popular with the general public.

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), another member of the delegation, was in Lithuania earlier this week to accept an award from its parliament, which is currently considering legislation to legalize same-sex civil unions.

Durbin recalled telling members of Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausdas staff that these are values that are important to America, that even the Supreme Court, nine people in the United States, shouldnt suggest otherwise They dont reflect public opinion.

It is not just an American decision. We have led the world in many respects, not exclusively, in expansion of the rights of women, Durbin added. And I think this [ruling] really raises a question as to our commitment in the future.

Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.

Link:
The elephant in the NATO room: America's Roe reversal - POLITICO

Russias assault on Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), putting them on a fast track to join the transatlantic alliance if political hurdles can be overcome. Their accession would dramatically expand NATOs border with Russia and mark a further entrenchment of the geopolitical rivalry.

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The Finnish and Swedish governments formally applied for membership on May 18, kicking off an intensive diplomatic process that could see the two countries join NATO within months. Supporters worked to build momentum around NATOs annual summit, this year on June 28-30 in Madrid, where alliance leaders are meeting to discuss the war in Ukraine, Chinas increasing influence, and a new Strategic Concept. Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is a no-brainer on all counts. It is a win-win proposition for the Baltic Sea region, the alliance and European security, writes Alexander Stubb, former prime minister of Finland. Applicants do not get more NATO compatible than this.

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The two Nordic states, like all applicants, must meet political, economic, and military requirements, and demonstrate that they will uphold all of the policies and principles set out in the 1949 Washington Treaty, the alliances charter.

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To grant membership, the governments of all thirty current NATO members must sign and ratify the so-called accession protocols for Finland and Sweden. In the United States, this requires the presidents signature and the approval of two-thirds of the U.S. Senate. Both President Joe Biden and Congress are expected to move quickly in support of the process.

The most significant hurdle has been objections from Turkey regarding the two countries support for a Kurdish militant group in Syria, the Peoples Protection Units (YPG). Ankara views the group and its alleged ties to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) as a terrorist threat. However, on June 28, Turkey agreed to lift its objections to their membership after Helsinki and Stockholm pledged to toughen their approach to these groups and lift their restrictions on arms sales to Ankara.

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Finland and Sweden have worked with the alliance for nearly thirty years, and they are widely regarded as capable security partners. They joined NATOs Partnership for Peace in 1994 and both contributed personnel to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, and Iraq. In 2014, they became two of just six Enhanced Opportunity Partners and have since worked to increase their militaries ability to operate with NATO forces. Sweden recently hosted more than a dozen NATO allies and Finland in BALTOPS 22, a major maritime exercise in the Baltic Sea.

Finnish and Swedish membership is expected to bolster the alliances eastern flank and its collective defenses in northern Europe. Perhaps the most significant impact would be the stretching of NATOs border with Russia. Bringing in Finland would more than double the length, adding roughly 800 miles of frontier. And Finland and Sweden together would vastly expand the alliances presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Circle.

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Prior to its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Russia heavily criticized U.S. and allied leaders for NATOs postCold War expansion into the former Soviet bloc and sought binding security guarantees from them, including a permanent ban on any new members. In recent weeks, President Vladimir Putin said Finlands and Swedens membership bids posed no direct threat to Russia, but he has warned the two countries about becoming bases for NATO forces or equipment. Swedish leaders have stated that they dont want to host NATO assets; Finland has yet to indicate its preferences. Neighboring Norway, a NATO member, allows allies access for exercises but does not permit permanent installations or nuclear weapons.

The proposed expansion is expected to enhance security for the Baltic states, who have been NATO members since 2004 and whose defense planners have long worried that Russia could seize Finnish and Swedish islands in the Baltic Sea, particularly Gotland, and use them as bases to launch attacks on their territories. Some Western military analysts have said that NATO would almost certainly need basing rights in Finland and Sweden to defend the Baltic states. Baltic leaders strongly support the Nordic states accession and continue to press other alliance members to boost NATOs military deployments in their countries.

Bringing Finland and Sweden into the fold is also expected to strengthen NATOs deterrence in the Arctic, a region where Russia has invested heavily in commercial and military infrastructure. Finnish and Swedish accession would bring all Arctic states, except Russia, into NATO, allowing the alliance to pursue a more coherent strategy in the region.

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How NATO Will Change If Finland and Sweden Become Members - Council on Foreign Relations

Madrid

As NATO leaders met in Madrid this week, Ukraine demanded new heavy weapons to defeat Russia's invasion. Here's a look at what Ukraine says it needs and what other countries have promised and delivered.

Ukrainian demands

Addressing NATO leaders by video link Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he urgently needed more advanced weapons.

"By providing them to us, you can completely break Russia's tactics to destroy cities and terrorize Ukrainian civilians," he said.

Ukraine said it needed a tenfold increase in the supply of weapons to counter Russia's huge arsenal of artillery.

NATO is not supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine, explained Jim Townsend, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy.

"That's not NATO itself as an institution providing things. It doesn't have them. But its allies do," Townsend told VOA. "And so, NATO has been very supportive of allies providing that assistance if they can. There's an absorption rate and a training rate that has to be met as well, in terms of timing."

More US aid

U.S. President Joe Biden said a new package of military support was on its way to Ukraine.

"Again, the United States is leading the way," Biden told reporters Thursday in Madrid. "We've provided Ukraine with nearly $7 billion in security assistance since I took office. In the next few days, we intend to announce more than $800 million more, including new advanced Western air defense systems for Ukraine, more artillery and ammunition, counter-battery radar, additional ammunition for the HIMARS [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System] multiple-launch rocket systems we've already given Ukraine, and more HIMARS from other countries, as well."

Training

The United States and Britain have supplied several Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) to Ukraine. In Britain this week, more than 450 Ukrainian troops completed training on these systems, which are considered crucial in countering Russian artillery.

British army Captain James Oliphant, who oversees the training program, said the systems will provide new capabilities to Ukrainian forces.

"It's another component to their own balance. It's a force multiplier. Because it's a truck vehicle, their rocket systems are wheeled. It's going to give them more mobility, which is going to aid in their survivability. It's an ammunition that's able to punch up to 84 kilometers," Oliphant said.

The U.S. has supplied other heavy weapons, including self-propelled howitzers, armored vehicles, drones, and air defense and missile systems.

Britain

Britain pledged an extra $1.3 billion in military aid for Ukraine at the summit, taking its total contribution to $2.8 billion second only to the United States. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it was vital that other Western partners step up to support Ukraine.

"I think that if Ukraine were to be crushed or forced into a bad peace, the consequences for freedom around the world would be appalling. And that view is shared by everyone in NATO," Johnson said.

France

France announced plans to send additional self-propelled Caesar long-range artillery systems. Ukraine is reported to have deployed these on the Black Sea coast close to Snake Island, which Russian forces abandoned Thursday after repeated Ukrainian attacks.

"The Caesar artilleries we have [given] 12 of them right now, and six will be added are among the most appreciated equipment by the Ukrainian army. They're also among the most credible equipment, considering their range and their efficiency," French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters at the summit Thursday.

Germany, Poland and Slovakia

Germany has pledged to deliver 15 anti-aircraft tanks in July after repeated delays, while Spain is considering sending around 40 German-made Leopard tanks though Berlin would have the final say.

Poland said it had already supplied Ukraine with $1.7 billion worth of arms and military equipment, including Soviet-era T-72 tanks, self-propelled howitzers and surface-to-air missiles. Slovakia donated its S-300 air defense system to Ukraine in April.

NATO

While not supplying heavy weapons, NATO agreed on a long-term package of military support for Ukraine at the Madrid summit.

"This included security communications, fuel, medical supplies and body armor, equipment to counter mines and chemical and biological threats, and hundreds of portable anti-drone systems," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday in Madrid.

"It is also very clear that allies are prepared for the long haul because they [Ukrainians] are fighting for their independence. But they are also fighting for values which are important for NATO, fundamental for NATO the sovereignty, territorial integrity of every nation. And, therefore, this matters for our security," Stoltenberg said.

Falling short?

But as the war enters its fifth month, the West still has not supplied heavy weapons in the numbers that Ukraine says it needs, said Fabrice Pothier, a former head of policy planning at NATO.

"There is a political calculation that we should give a bit more but not so much that somehow we can feed and trigger an escalation that gets out of control. And in a way, I understand the logic. But I think it's profoundly wrong, because fundamentally, that means we are asking Zelenskyy to fight with one hand [behind] the back," Pothier told VOA.

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NATO Summit: What New Weapons Have Been Pledged to Ukraine? - Voice of America - VOA News

Over five days, the leaders of the G7 and Nato shifted from the pastoral backdrop of the Bavarian Alps to the more prosaic plains of Madrid, but at no point was there a shortage of photo opportunities, trumpeting of democracy, multibillion-dollar announcements or pledges of unstinting resolve to help Ukraine.

But as the leaders head home to their more mundane domestic challenges, it is legitimate to ask how far these promises change the balance of power on the battlefield, or put doubt in the mind of Vladimir Putin. For although these summits were an exercise in reassurance to domestic electorates, and to a lesser extent to Ukraine, the target audience was really one man: the Russian president.

Not surprisingly, he gave off the impression of insouciance. In central Asia, on his first trip overseas since the war began, he claimed: The work is going quietly, rhythmically, the troops are moving and are reaching the lines that have been given to them as milestones. Everything is going according to plan.

The sudden, and somewhat mysterious, withdrawal of the Russian garrison from Snake Island (measuring 600 metres by 700 metres) might suggest otherwise, but it is not the start of the removal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, including Crimea, a war objective restated as realistic by the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, on Thursday.

Part of the difficulty is that these summits were not quite the council of war that Volodymyr Zelenskiy needed, partly because Joe Biden did not want to play into Russian propaganda by portraying Nato as anything other than a defensive alliance, the armoured guardian of its own territory.

The Nato summit was largely about the consequences of Russias invasion, not for Ukraine but for countries already inside or about to join Nato. It was about defending every inch of Nato territory, as Biden put it.

Ukraine does not directly benefit from the admission into Nato of the two paladins of peace, as Boris Johnson described Sweden and Finland. The same applies to the sevenfold increase in Nato forces on high alert, the establishment of the first permanent US operational headquarters on the alliances eastern flank in Poland, the increase in the number of US troops in the region, or a new 10-year strategy that dispenses of any notion of partnership with Russia. That is not to minimise their significance. On paper, the intention to build such high-readiness forces is the greatest systemic and mental change in Nato planning since the end of the cold war, but it has no impact on the killing fields of Donbas. To paraphrase Zelenskiy, he does not need a new Nato strategic concept he needs ammunition.

But that does not mean no progress was made. For one thing, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, could not have been more blunt in his criticism of Putin, or clearer that avenues to a ceasefire are closed. If there is a premature peace faction, it does not reside in Paris.

For Zelenskiy himself, the summit was about finances, weapons and politics.

On finance, Ukraine is gobbling up an extraordinary $5bn a month as its economy and exports degrade, but the US is prepared to underwrite this. Biden promised another $800m in defence assistance in the next few days, including a new advanced air defence system. The UK, the second biggest supplier of military aid, agreed to spend another 1.15bn of military aid to Ukraine. Germany, going round in circles about delivering arms, has been better at subsidising Ukraines economy.

A further recovery summit, dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine, will be held in Lugano on 4-5 July, which Zelenskiy himself is slated to attend.

On weapons, before the summit, Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, gave an inventory of Ukraines needs: 1,000 155mm-calibre howitzers, 300 multiple-launch rocket systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 armoured vehicles, and 1,000 drones.

Ukrainian forces, officials say, have lost 700 armoured vehicles in the last three months, and replacements are urgently needed. Both France and Spain have responded with the offer of tanks or armoured personnel carriers.

Above all, they need ammunition or artillery. Russian artillery is firing 40,000-60,000 missiles a day, while Ukrainian artillery can respond with 5,000 to 6,000. Worse, the west does not have the ammunition for the old Soviet artillery systems that Ukraine uses. So far, the US has only delivered four Himars launchers, but more deliveries from both the US and the UK have been promised. At present they are being used almost exclusively to hit Russian ammunition depots in the Luhansk region.

There can be no counter-offensive planned for the summer or the deployment of newly trained forces on the frontlines unless there is a transformation in the speed and volume with which weapons are supplied.

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There is also an urgency. Putin believes time is on his side and that Russia can pound the longest. Just as the Ukrainian forces can only suffer a certain level of attrition, so too western politicians can only risk the wrath of their electorates for so long. The proposals from the US to cut the price of Russian oil, and from Italy to curb the price of Russian piped gas discussed at length at the G7 were probably the two most significant ideas to emerge from the summits. Macron admitted these ideas are currently a construction site. They urgently need a lot more work if the west is to find a way to hit the Russian economy, and protect European consumers. US state department officials were in London as soon as the summit ended to pursue ideas with the Treasury.

Gustav Gressel, a security analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, identifies a western policy preference to fight this war as an economic contest as opposed to a military one. But, he argues, looking at things developing on the ground, the other way round would be better: The Russian economy could be stabilised by Moscow, arguably at a lower point, but still. Economics is not Putins playground, and he will not have his geopolitical ambition tamed by economic setbacks. On the other hand, breaking Russias offensive capabilities by providing Kyiv with the tools to do so (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, air defence) would be the cheaper solution.

The next few months, not these summits, will prove whether those tools will be provided.

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What did the G7 and Nato summits really mean for Ukraine? - The Guardian

Breyers Out, Jacksons InThe Story

Justice Stephen Breyers hanging up his robes today.

Correct. Confirmed in 1994 with bipartisan support, Breyer became recognized by many as the court's consensus seeker. He was known for liberal rulings on health care and abortion access but was most well-known for his concern with the USs death penalty. In 2015, he wrote a dissent on lethal injections, questioning the legality of capital punishment. Now, amid pressure from some Democrats to retire, the 83-year-old justice will be succeeded by Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Today at noon. Thats when Jackson will be sworn in to replace Breyer. Shell be the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court and the first justice with experience as a federal public defender. But her confirmation doesnt change the high courts standing. Since shes replacing Breyer, itll still be a conservative majority of 6 to 3.

Yep. This morning, the court is expected to announce its two remaining opinions before breaking for the summer. First up is whether the Environmental Protection Agency has the power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. If SCOTUS says nope, Congress would step in to regulate. It's a move that could set back the Biden admins goals on climate change...and times ticking. Second, President Bidens challenge to end the Remain in Mexico program. Thats the Trump-era policy requiring many asylum seekers to stay in Mexico for months or years while they wait for their US asylum claims to be processed.

Justice Breyers retirement is clearing the way for a new justice to help decide the country's future. But the court is still on track to have a solidly conservative lean for decades to come.

NATO. Yesterday, NATO leaders invited Sweden and Finland to become members. Now that Turkeys onboard, the two traditionally neutral countries will move forward with the ratification process, which could take up to a year. But a NATO official expects it to move as quickly as possible. The urgency comes as the 30-member alliance labeled Russia its most significant and direct threat. Allies also committed to deploying more robust in-place combat-ready forces on its eastern flank, with President Biden saying +1 to that. In addition to deploying more troops to the region, Biden also announced a permanent HQ in Poland a first for the US on NATOs eastern side. Russian President Vladimir Putin said if any military contingents and infrastructure are deployed in Sweden and Finland, he will have to respond in kind.

Oh and Ukraine secured the release of 144 soldiers the biggest prisoner swap since Russias invasion.

The FCC. Earlier this week, a Republican commissioner asked Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores. The commissioner worries the video app owned by Chinese company ByteDance could be sending American users data back to Beijing. And says that the unfettered access China has to sensitive data violates Apple and Googles standards. The FCC can't regulate apps, but that doesn't stop it from putting pressure on the companies. The company has called concerns about its data privacy misleading. But the FCC commissioner maintains the apps a sophisticated surveillance tool.

Israel. Today, the countrys parliament voted to dissolve itselfagain. The collapse comes after Israels government formed a historic coalition including the first Arab faction. The main goal was ousting former PM Benjamin Netanyahu. But theyve been stuck in political limbo. Now, Israel will hold its fifth election in less than four years. PM Naftali Bennett will be packing his bags as one of Israels shortest-serving prime ministers. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will be the temporary PM till the November elections. And there could be a pathway for Netanyahu to take the reigns.

R Kelly. Yesterday, the singer was sentenced to 30 years in prison after a NY jury found him guilty of sex trafficking and racketeering which included acts of kidnapping and bribery. Since the 1990s, nearly a dozen women and girls have accused the singer of sexual abuse, manipulation, and inappropriate relationships. Now, a US attorney says the sentence shows that no matter how powerful, rich, or famous an abuser may be, justice only hears the truth. In August, Kelly is set to stand trial in Chicago for child pornography and obstruction-of-justice charges.

Female tennis players are (Wimble)done with the dress code.

Baby neck floats arent the answer.

Skimmd by Rashaan Ayesh, Melanie De Lima, Kate Gilhool, Julie Shain, and Mariza Smajlaj

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Justice Stephen Breyer, NATO, and Wimbledon | Daily Skimm - theSkimm