Monthly Archives: June 2022

Last week in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, armed suspects carried out targeted attacks against activists and social leaders in Mexico and a lawyer in Honduras, while gangs continued to kidnap high-profile figures in Haiti. In Mexico, the Los Ardillos gang attacked Indigenous communities in Guerrero state, while overall levels of political violence increased in Chiapas and remained high in San Luis Potos states. In Trinidad and Tobago, violence against civilians increased last week. Meanwhile, members of the LGBT+ community marched in Mexico and in Trinidad and Tobago in commemoration of LGBT+ Pride Month, demanding respect for their rights.

In Mexico, attacks against activists and social leaders increased last week. In Hidalgo state, a group of armed men shot and killed an environmental activist and injured two others at the entrance of a garbage dump in Atitalaquia municipality on 20 June. The activists had been camping outside the dump for a month, demanding its closure and claiming that the local government had allowed the operation of the dump despite violations of environmental regulations (Desinformmonos, 22 June 2022). Following the killing of the activist, people staged a protest in Atitalaquia, calling for justice and demanding the mayor's resignation. This attack contributed to the 300% increase in violence in Hidalgo over the past week relative to the past month, as flagged by ACLED's Subnational Surge Tracker.

Similarly, in Baja California state, gunmen shot and killed a woman social activist in Tijuana on 22 June. The activist was known for her advocacy work, demanding property deeds and improvements in living conditions for the residents of the Maclovio Rojas community. Members of this community denounced threats by armed members of other communities that seek to seize control of their lands (La Jornada, 24 June 2022). The representative for the UN Human Rights Office in Mexico highlighted that the continuous attacks against activists and human rights defenders are related to the failure of the justice system to investigate and prosecute the perpetrators of such attacks (Infobae, 23 June 2022).

Elsewhere, in Guerrero state, the Los Ardillos gang attacked members of the Nahuas Indigenous communities in Chilapa de lvarez municipality last week. During several days of attacks, members of the Los Ardillos gang shot at houses and deployed drones charged with explosives. The attacks were followed by a clash between the Los Ardillos gang and self-defense groups in Tula Guerrero after the Los Ardillos gang interrupted a press conference in which Indigenous authorities were reporting the attacks. Indigenous leaders have accused the government of siding with the Los Ardillos gang and failing to guarantee security despite their continuous denouncements of attacks by Los Ardillos (Infobae, 22 June 2022; InSight Crime, 13 May 2022). Last week's attacks are the first to be recorded in Guerrero with the use of explosive-laden drones since ACLED started its coverage in 2018. Gangs in Mexico have increasingly begun to use drones in attacks, pointing to "the increased tactical and operational sophistication of criminal groups in Mexico" (War On The Rocks, 11 November 2021).

In Chiapas, rioters shot and injured a government official during a demonstration last week in Oxchuc municipality, while gunmen shot and killed a Mayan Tzotzil Indigenous member of the Oxchuc municipal council. These attacks follow disputes between supporters of the current mayor of Oxchuc and members of the opposition who have rejected the result of the December 2021 local elections and demand a new election (El Sol de Mxico, 22 June 2022). These trends led to the 220% increase in violence in Chiapas over the past week relative to the past month, as flagged by ACLED's Subnational Surge Tracker.

In San Luis Potos state, violence remained high last week with national guard officers and gang members clashing in Cerritos municipality, leaving four gang members dead. Additionally, gang violence against civilians last week resulted in three civilians being killed. Such violence contributed to the 154% increase in violence in San Luis Potos in the past month relative to the past year flagged by ACLED's Subnational Threat Tracker, which first warned of increased violence to come in the state in the past month. Several criminal groups dispute control of drug trafficking routes in San Luis de Potos, including the Gulf Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the Noroeste Cartel (Infobae, 6 April 2022).

In Honduras, unidentified armed men shot and killed a lawyer in front of his house in Juticalpa, Olancho department, on 24 June. Police claim that the killing could be related to his work, though they continue to investigate the case (El Heraldo, 25 June 2022). Experts have reported that gang activities have been increasing in Olancho as these groups seek to control drug routes (Criterio.hn, 5 May 2022), which has led to a rise in the levels of violence in this department. Additionally, last week, attacks by armed suspects throughout the country left 10 civilians dead. These trends contribute to the 58% increase in violence in Honduras over the past week relative to the past month that is flagged by ACLED's Conflict Change Map.

In Haiti, violence increased last week compared to the week prior, driven by gang kidnappings in Ouest department. In Croix-des-Bouquet district, armed men kidnapped the manager of a local media outlet and an official of the National Commission for Public Procurement in separate attacks. In Port-au-Prince, a former delegate of the Artibonite department was kidnapped in Petionville commune. Though most of the abductions in 2022 have been recorded in the center of Port-au-Prince, ACLED records an increase in kidnappings in the neighboring communes of Petionville and Tabarre, and Croix-des-Bouquets district. Meanwhile, on 20 June, unidentified gang members carried out shootings and set vehicles on fire in Petionville. The attack came after the Vitelhomme gang issued public threats in response to a police operation in the area (Haiti Standard, 20 June 2022). ACLED's Conflict Change Map first warned of increased violence to come in Haiti in the past month.

In Trinidad and Tobago, attacks against civilians by unidentified assailants left at least eight dead last week, leading to the 52% increase in violence in Trinidad and Tobago over the past week relative to the past month that is flagged by ACLED's Conflict Change Map. Most of the attacks occurred in the northern regions of the Trinidad island, including Arima, Chaguanas, Tunapuna Piarco, San Juan-Laventille, and Port of Spain. The northern division of the police force has reported that most of the violent incidents recorded in the northern regions are related to retaliatory attacks between criminal groups and disputes for the control of drug markets (Trinidad and Tobago Guardian, 26 June 2022).

Meanwhile, members of the LGBT+ community marched in Trinidad and Tobago and Mexico last week as part of LGBT+ Pride Month commemorations. In Mexico, protests were recorded between 18 and 19 June in at least 19 of the 32 states of the country, with protesters calling for respect for LGBT+ rights, and an end to discrimination and hate crimes. Coinciding with these demonstrations, on 19 June, armed suspects shot and killed a transgender woman in Ecatepec de Morelos, Mexico state, for unknown reasons. Thus far in 2022, ACLED records an increase in attacks against LGBT+ people in Mexico compared to the same period in 2021, in line with local organizations that have found that hate crimes against LGBT+ people increased in 2021 (El Heraldo, 20 June 2022). Activists demand the recognition of hate crimes in the national penal code; until now, only 12 states have recognized them in their local legislation (EFE, 28 November 2021; El Heraldo, 20 June 2022).

Continued here:

ACLED Regional Overview - Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean (18 - 24 June 2022) - Mexico - ReliefWeb

JENNINGS MOUNTAIN, St. Vincent and the Grenadines The destruction was terrible, but the silence was even worse. Yvette Pereira had just walked up the road to the farm she owned on St. Vincent, an island located between St. Lucia, Grenada and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles.

It was like in a nightmare. It was all gray and no green. I heard nothing, Pereira recounted.

A couple of days before, on April 9, 2021, a volcano named La Soufrire erupted and blanketed much of the island in ash. The small river that normally gurgled through Pereiras property ceased to flow, trees were snapped in two, and several of her farm animals were killed. But it was the parrots that worried Pereira the most.

Normally I drive up, open my door, and am hearing parrots. I thought, where are the parrots?

Pereira had cause for concern. The parrots that she was so accustomed to seeing werent the kind of parrots found at the pet shop, or even in most zoos. These were St. Vincent parrots (Amazona guildingii), a dazzling species with colors like a sunset. The species, endemic to this island that measures just 29 kilometers long and 18 across (18 by 11 miles), is one of four parrot species restricted to only one island in the string of islands known as the Lesser Antilles. All are considered threatened species on the IUCN Red List (three are vulnerable and one is critically-endangered).

Parrots of the Caribbean

Extinction is a very real threat for the parrots of the Caribbean: of the 34 or so unique species that once occurred in the region, only 15 remain today.

Parrots have a lot working against them: they generally nest in tree cavities, a habitat feature most common in mature forests that are vulnerable to both natural disasters and deforestation. Most parrot species take several years to become sexually mature, and when they do, they usually raise only one or two chicks per year. Their intelligence and stunning colors make them desirable for the illegal pet trade. And, according to early explorers, they even taste good.

The four species of parrots confined to the Lesser Antilles somehow passed through the other side of this threat gauntlet to survive into the present day. The St. Vincent parrot and St. Lucia parrot (Amazona versicolor) each occur only on their namesake islands, while the red-necked parrot (Amazona arausiaca) and imperial parrot (Amazona imperialis) each call Dominica their exclusive home. All three islands host spectacular parrot species, but all are vulnerable to natural disasters.

Each island owes its existence to volcanoes, and all sit squarely within the crosshairs of hurricanes crossing either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean. Just three and a half years before the eruption of La Soufrire, Hurricane Maria tore through Dominica. The Category 5 storm damaged 90% of the homes and buildings on the island and, like a giant lawnmower, sliced the tops off thousands of trees.

Hope in disasters wake

Both forms of damage impacted Bertrand Jno-Baptiste, who lost his home in the storm and, as an ornithologist who spent 34 years working with the Forestry, Wildlife and Parks Division of Dominica, temporarily lost optimism about the future of the parrots he loved so much.

Jno-Baptiste began his career in the immediate wake of Hurricane David, another Category 5 storm that devastated Dominica in 1979. At that time, approximately 1,000 red-necked parrots and 50 imperial parrots survived in the wild. By the time Hurricane Maria blew onto the scene, the populations of both had increased to 3,500 and 450, respectively.

Two weeks after Maria hit, Jno-Baptiste took a walk to his prime parrot-watching spot and wondered whether any parrots had made it through the storm. The forest would recover, he knew. Left alone, the native trees and vegetation that had adapted over millennia to the impact of violent natural disturbances would bounce back. However, for wildlife species already vulnerable to extinction, recovery was less certain. Questions filled his mind, but before he even reached his destination, he looked ahead and saw a sight he said he will never forget.

I saw four imperials, and I had not seen four together since long before the hurricane.

Jno-Baptiste said he thinks the numbers rebounded after the storm, based on his observations. But he qualified this by saying that, Unfortunately, almost nothing has been done in terms of proper counts of parrots after the hurricane.

The same was true on St. Vincent. Following the volcanic eruption last year, nobody really knew how the parrots were faring.

After the volcano erupted, we realized that this was, potentially, a very damaging event to the parrots population, said Lisa Sorenson, executive director of BirdsCaribbean, an NGO that has helped conserve parrots on several Caribbean islands. We really had no idea how bad the impacts to the parrots were.

Dealing with data deficiency

Nobody knew how the St. Vincent parrot was doing after the eruption because nobody could really say before: the last full population census was completed in 2010. The situation there and on Dominica, coupled with the threatened status of the birds, begs the question: Why had so little been done?

Many of those familiar with parrot conservation on the islands sum up the answer with four letters: ACTP, or the Association for the Conservation of Threatened Parrots, which has exported at least 27 parrots over the last 11 years from St. Vincent and Dominica. The nonprofits website says the exports are needed to establish a safety net population in case of natural disasters. Assertions of fraudulent export documents, government corruption, and threats from the ACTPs director have created a great deal of skepticism, which has led to distrust between those tasked with conserving the parrots on the ground and the government entities that approved the ACTPs activities. The result, some say, is the stagnation of necessary parrot conservation programs.

Glenroy Peewee Gaymes worked for more than two decades as an officer with St. Vincents Forestry Department. He was suspended for three years after writing a letter directly to the prime minister expressing his concerns about what the department was, and wasnt, doing. Though recently reinstated as a floating officer, he still questions why the ACTP has influenced forestry activities to the extent that it has.

My thing is, what is the benefit to us? Gaymes said in an interview with Mongabay. Im sad to say that I dont think we know what we want out of it.

Sorenson said the problem may be even simpler.

[Forestry staff] may feel like they dont have the skills, she said. Thats what I hear, is that we dont really know how to go out and do counts. I would say that theres just a real need to develop the capacity to do the work, more than anything.

Tourism: the winning ticket?

And while not everyone agrees on the problems, the same solution came up in every conversation Mongabay had with those working to conserve the Lesser Antillean parrots: birding tourism.

Were seeing [ecotourism] as the major sector in St. Vincent, Gaymes said. All of the other countries surrounding us are doing the same thing. Gone are the days when you have just the sea and sun tourism. You have to have something unique.

BirdsCaribbean, recognizing this, created the Caribbean Birding Trail to promote birding opportunities, sustainable accommodations, and local guides.

We firmly believe that bird and nature tourism is a huge part of the solution, Sorenson said. Because, of course, if youre saving the habitats and the birds that the visitors are coming to see, instead of destroying it to build another all-inclusive hotel, then youre helping the economy, youre providing jobs, and all of that.

Following La Soufrires eruption, Yvette Pereiras ecolodge, Amazona Nest, literally rose from the ashes. She and the five locals she employs have observed a steady uptick in visitors searching for an authentic experience. And, of course, searching for the parrots.

As a parrot gave its raucous cry in the background, Pereira gestured behind her and said, The parrots, I think, are one of the biggest attractions. For my business, I need them around.

Birding tourists to the Lesser Antilles, especially those with limited time, employ guides to help them find their target birds. Guides must know the native birds by sight and sound, and are paid a premium to share this knowledge with visitors. Gaymes supplements his Forestry Department income by leading birding tours. Jno-Baptiste, now retired from the department, guides full time.

I worked all my life for the Forestry and Parks Division but I made more money guiding in the past six years than I ever made with them, he said.

Sorenson said getting more forestry staff affiliated with guiding could aid them financially while helping to build capacity to conduct parrot surveys and associated conservation actions. As a result, BirdsCaribbean plans to hold a five-day workshop in St. Vincent at the end of this year to train forestry staffers from various islands in bird identification, field methodology, and interpretation.

The increased supply of qualified guides would also help to meet the ever-rising demand for birding and nature tourism on the islands. Tourism visits to St. Vincent doubled between 1998 and 2019, and in a 2009 survey, 100% of 264 Dominicans polled said they felt nature was the main reason that tourists visit the islands; 86% of the same respondents said they felt the government could do more to conserve the natural environment for tourism.

Jno-Baptiste said he feels strongly that the way to change the political mindset around conservation on his island, and others, involves showing the link between this increased demand and the economic benefits it brings.

If the forest and parrots can bring in millions, lets do it, he said emphatically. We have what it takes.

Gaymes agreed. These are the things that our policymakers need to see, he said. [We need to] tell our policymakers this is unique, this is whats going to bring money into the country, this is what we need to save. And then were all happy at the end of the day.

Guides lead the way

The data supports this point of view. The 2009 study found that the average ecotourist in Dominica spent nearly twice as much per trip than a tourist on a general vacation. That extra money supports people like Jno-Baptiste and Gaymes, who played central roles in strengthening knowledge about the parrots found on their respective islands. The money also reduces the dependence on outside players who may not always have the best interests of the islands and their birds in mind.

And, while government officials may require some reminders about the importance of the parrots and their habitats, most on the islands seem to possess a deep sense of pride regarding the birds.

The color of the St. Vincent parrot happens to be the color of our national flag, Gaymes said. That speaks volumes.

Dominica takes its own flag a step further: an image of an imperial parrot sits squarely in the center. These birds are literally woven into the national identity, but acceptance of the parrots as national treasures deserving of protection was extra palpable at the Calvin Nicholls Wildlife Complex on St. Vincent.

Fabian Young was looking up at a splendid St. Vincent parrot, bedecked in a cascade of color that looked impossibly gaudy for the animal kingdom. He put his hand out and stroked the forehead of this bird that had obviously bonded with him. Young, only 26 years old and one of the caretakers of this 31-strong captive breeding colony of St. Vincent parrots, seemed optimistic, even enthusiastic, about the future of the birds.

Young was familiar with the ACTP controversy that involved the questionable export of parrots from the complex. And, yes, he knew that the colony of parrots he tended was a drop in the bucket compared to the 800-1,000 fending for themselves in a wild full of natural and human-induced threats.

But he also knew about the local farmers who donated fruit twice per week to help feed these birds. He has seen the smiles of visitors, ranging from local schoolchildren to tourists to the prime minister of India, when they first viewed a St. Vincent parrot in the flesh. Even at his age, he saw the potential the species held for his island nation.

Young gestured to the cage behind him, then turned back around. We are blessed to have these birds. The parrots represent everything.

Peter Kleinhenz is a freelance writer and host of the online video series Wild Wander.

Citation:

Slinger-Friedman, V. (2009). Ecotourism in Dominica: Studying the potential for economic development, environmental protection and cultural conservation. Island Studies Journal, 4(1), 3-24. doi:10.24043/isj.225

Related audio from Mongabays podcast: Award-winning science writer Sy Montgomery discusses why birds deserve your care and attention, plus we share news of recent research on avian biology and their conservation, listen here:

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Parrots of the Caribbean: Birding tourism offers hope for threatened species - Mongabay.com

Cruising stocks floated about as well as a sack of bricks on Wednesday. A Morgan Stanley analyst made negative comments about the industry, and questioned one company's ability to withstand a recession.

Analyst Jamie Rollo lowered his price target for Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) to $7, and placed a worst-case scenario price target of $0 on the stock. Carnival, the world's largest cruise line, dropped 14% on the news to close at $8.87.

Competitor Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) fell 9.57% to close at $36.02, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) lost 9.4% to close at $11.57. All three stocks are near their respective 52-week lows.

Rollo raised legitimate concerns about Carnival's ability to raise capital if an economic downturn should occur. The company lost $1.8 billion in its most recent quarter.

According to the chart, Rollo's base-case price target of $7 is likely to be met. Carnival is trapped in a bearish channel (diagonal lines). The channel predicts that Carnival will fall below $6, which is the mean of the channel.

Chart Source: TradeStation

Carnival's volume has been steadily increasing over the past three weeks (shaded yellow). The increase in turnover could be a sign of institutional selling. Wednesday's selloff occurred on 2.5x Carnival's normal volume.

According to Carnival's RSI (relative strength index), this stock isn't yet oversold. Even if it was, I wouldn't buy Carnival at its current price.

Carnival has been oversold on five occasions since December (arrows). While each oversold reading led to a bounce, the stock eventually reached a lower low on every occasion.

The chart of Royal Caribbean Cruises is nearly identical to that of Carnival. RCL's chart has a similar bear channel, a comparable increase in volume, and five oversold RSI bounces, just like Carnival.

Chart Source: TradeStation

The chart of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also has a similar look.

Chart Source: TradeStation

Here's the takeaway: All three of these stocks are going lower. The downside momentum is strong in this sector, and nearby support -- formed just last week -- is unlikely to prevent a move to fresh 52-week lows for all three names.

However, these stocks are priced for an industry-wide calamity, and I'm not sure that's realistic.

Rollo's worst-case scenario is based on a potential economic downturn, but cruising enthusiasts tend to be older and wealthier. They are among the least susceptible to a recession.

Bottom line: These stocks should continue to sink, but not all the way to Davy Jones' Locker. If I can get Carnival at the low end of the channel -- under $5 -- I'll dive in.

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Read the rest here:

As Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Sink, Here's When to Dive In - RealMoney

The walls covering the view of Pirates of the Caribbeans refurbishment (which weve been giving updates on here) are now removed, thus revealing the lovely bayou scene behind, and that testing is underway ahead of the attractions reopening.

Pirates of the Caribbean is set to reopen July 1. Construction appears to be on schedule as empty boats can be seen testing and sailing past guests as they eat at Blue Bayou Restaurant.

The lack of walls really helps widen the room and ambiance of the restaurant.

The bayou scene will definitely help guests get in the mood for a Monte Cristo sandwich.

We dined at Blue Bayou just before the walls came down, and you can come with us in our video review right here:

Hungry yet? Blue Bayou Restaurant has opened up reservations for guests hoping to take a peek at the refurbished Pirates of the Caribbean ride.

Let us know what you think of the restaurant in the comments below! Excited to go on Pirates? Share your excitement with us!

For more Disneyland Resort news and info, follow Disneyland News Today onTwitter,Facebook, andInstagram. For Disney Parks news worldwide, visitWDWNT.

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Testing on Pirates of the Caribbean Begins as Walls Come Down in Blue Bayou at Disneyland - WDW News Today

UN NewsHow did the Cartagena Convention come about?

Christopher CorbinThe Cartagena Convention was driven primarily by a major oil spill that took place in the region close to Trinidad and Tobago in the early 1980s.

This brought home the fact that this region is so dependent on the coastal and marine resources on the Caribbean Sea for tourism, for fisheries, and livelihoods, that there needed to be a framework to protect those valuable resources.

At the same point in time, several major conferences had taken place at the broader UN level, and the governments in the region got together and approached the UN Environment Programme, and said that they needed a mechanism to address the issues facing them.

The Convention is split into three main areas: oil spills, land-based sources of pollution, and marine biodiversity.

UN NewsHow bad is the situation now?

Christopher CorbinI would say it's almost like we are running on a treadmill.

There have been signs that the region is taking action, particularly for oil spills, and we've seen a reduction in the number of spills.

But were also seeing greater risk. We see the increasing focus on coastal development, and of tourism, and we've seen the challenges facing our coastal and marine resource management. Pollution, from land-based sources and activities, continues to damage our coastal and marine ecosystems.

But I would say that the Convention has allowed governments to address those transboundary issues that are outside of the control of any single government.

UN NewsHas the Convention changed to adapt to the growing realization that there is man-made climate action?

Christopher CorbinVery much so. If we look at the original Convention document, there is absolutely no mention of climate change.

UN News/ Conor Lennon

Khus khus grass is being grown in the Barbados National Botanical Gardens, to be used in hedgerows as part of an initiative to reduce land-based pollution in the ocean.

Climate change impacts on all of the activities that happen within the region. We are not completely changing the focus of the Convention, but rather seeing how the impact of climate change relates to our two core focus areas of marine pollution and marine biodiversity.

So, we're starting to look at issues of adaptation, and nature based solutions. When it comes down to issues such as sea level rise, we are seeing the importance of integrated planning and integrated coastal zone management. The whole approach to ecosystem-based management is also a recognition that we can't approach the management of our resources in an isolated and sectoral way.

Barbados has been, I would say, one of the extremely strong supporters of the work of the Cartagena Convention. It's also, one would argue, one of the more vulnerable islands in the region because of its geography. A lot of the work we have done in Barbados is really to help them build resilience.

Barbados Scuba

Coral nursery off the coast of Barbados, created by CORALL

UN NewsWhat risks does Barbados face?

Christopher CorbinBarbados has been listed globally as one of the most water-stressed countries in the world: they have a significant challenge as it relates to the provision of drinking water. They are heavily dependent on groundwater and therefore their water is at high risk from pollution, particularly domestic wastewater.

Some of the early work of the convention was more in the context of regional policy, regional standards, and we worked very closely with the government of of Barbados in reviewing regulations and helping them develop new policies.

Over the years, more and more countries like Barbados started to say that they needed more concrete work on the ground, and our more recent projects have focused primarily on supporting Barbados at the local level.

One of our projects is working to ensure that reused water is safe. We have developed a very detailed communication strategy with the government, to explain this to farmers, and the general public.

We hope that this will become an example of best practice that we can share throughout the region.

UN News/ Conor Lennon

A sea turtle attempts to lay eggs on a Barbados beach

UN NewsThe proliferation of sargassum seaweed had been a problem for several years.

Christopher CorbinBarbados was one of the first countries in the region to be affected.

It has impacted the nesting of sea turtles, fisheries, and tourism. We partnered with the University of the West Indies and developed a number of guidelines, looking at how to deal with this issue, how to monitor the spread of sargassum and how to reuse it.

I think that Barbados is in the lead, in terms of some of the solutions that could be implemented. The government takes a very methodical way of approaching these issues. They want to ensure that they have the national policies in place and, as a result of their focus on that, the projects that they're now doing on the ground are having a bigger impact.

Read the rest here:

INTERVIEW: Pollution, Cartagena, and the Caribbean | | UN News - UN News

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Life revolves around the climate, says Jos Luis Pepe Gerhartz, a senior conservation specialist from the Caribbean Biological Corridor Initiative, or CBC, a joint initiative between Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Puerto Rico. The scientific knowledge generated by Pepe, among many other experts dedicated to studying climate, indicates that climate change is causing drastic alterations to our oceans. These alterations are inevitably affecting marine ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them. Fisheries are already suffering as changes in sea temperature, sea currents and many other processes in the oceans affect the abundance and distribution of marine species. Certain organisms will be able to adapt, moving in search of better conditions. However, many others will not, potentially reducing the oceans ability to thrive and nourish the world.

What do resilient fisheries mean for tropical areas?

Changes in the oceans will affect the entire world, but tropical regions are particularly vulnerable to decreases in fishery production as species move toward the poles in search of cooler waters. This includes the 40 million people living in the Caribbean, whose economies rely heavily on marine activities including fishing and marine tourism.

More than 7,000 Caribbean islands make up an incomparable mosaic where diverse cultures, languages and intricate landscapes merge. Thanks to this diversity and the resilience it provides, island inhabitants have been able to face the adversities of weather and other stresses through the centuries. However, modern climate change has brought effects unprecedented in human history. The future of our connections with the sea, including fisheries, depends on our resiliencea concept defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, or FAO, as the capacity of communities to anticipate crises and recover in a timely, efficient and sustainable manner.

EDF, together with regional partners including the Caribbean Biological Corridor Initiative and the Latin America and Caribbean Office of the United Nations Environment Programme, works toward healthy ecosystems and oceans that benefit coastal communities. Together, these organizations held the virtual seminar, Climate change-resilient fisheries in the Caribbean, with a focus on Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The seminar was held on September 28, October 5, and October 12, 2021, bringing together 140 people from 16 countries to exchange experiences and boost regional collaborations around fisheries resilience.

In the seminar, Dr. Manuel Barange, the director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Resources and Policies Division of FAO, shared a keynote lecture on the global perspective proposed by FAO to guide the adaptive management of fisheries to climate change. Given that close to 12% of the worlds population depends on fisheries and aquaculture, Dr. Barange calls for immediate and urgent action.

With the impacts of climate change on fisheries, it is not only about minimizing damage nor about maintaining the status quoit is also about maximizing opportunities, said Dr. Barange. He explained that, given the close relationship between fishing communities and our oceans, it is not feasible to simply protect the sea. Dynamic and ambitious management actions are necessary to achieve healthy fisheries and ecosystems. There is no greater motivation than climate change to heed this call.

In the tropics, a common challenge is that many of the fisheries are multi-species and small-scale. These are complex fisheries that often involve many landing sites and several types of fishing gear that catch different species at once. This complexityexacerbated by climate changemakes it difficult to monitor and evaluate fish stocks and to establish adequate fisheries management. Fortunately, we learned that communities and governments in the Caribbean have an extensive portfolio of tools to continue increasing their resilience in fisheries and other sectors.

How are countries progressing toward resilient fisheries?

Dr. Baranges proposal is feasible. Achieving resilient fisheries requires effective fisheries management that promotes the sustainable use of fishery resources based on various socio-economic objectives. In Cuba, the new fisheries law requires science and an advisory council to guide fisheries management. In the Dominican Republic, priority areas for fisheries governance are identified, including the diversification of products and markets as well as the promotion of community leadership. In Puerto Rico, shark finning is effectively prohibited based on local agreements, and there are many other examples in the Caribbean.

The use of science and data is of the essence. The seminar highlighted some of the many scientific advances being made in the Caribbean region to understand trends in biodiversity, fisheries production and the effects of climate change on coastal communities. Ongoing research to understand climate impacts at local scales and inform community decision-making in the Caribbean will continue to be an important tool to prepare for climate change. In addition, research that focuses on broader trends such as regional climate vulnerability assessments and predictions of shifts in species distributions within and beyond the Caribbean region can help us to understand how climate impacts extend beyond local and national jurisdictions. These scientific efforts will help us to understand the challenges that communities will face so that they can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that climate change will pose.

Given the changing nature of fisheries, which is increased by the impacts of climate change, fisheries managers must be prepared to continuously review and modify their targets based on monitoring results. This inherent flexibility must be collaborative and involve as many actors as possible to ensure its success; therefore, management must be participatory. In Puerto Rico, fishing cooperatives promote communication and social cohesion, facilitating connections between science, management and fisheries policies with work on the water. In Belize, fisheries co-management is a pillar of its national managed access system, promoting shared responsibility among the various actors and boosting decision-making in response to rapid changes in ecological and socio-economic variables. By incorporating multiple voices and perspectives into all phases of fisheries management, the effectiveness and the distribution of costs and benefits are maximized.

When change is the only constant, effective and participatory management must also be precautionary and establish systems to deal with uncertainty and risk. Even when we dont have access to all the information on the potential impacts of climate change, fisheries management can and should operate despite this uncertainty using flexible systems. In the Dominican Republic, Cuba and other Caribbean countries, a precautionary approach is applied to ensure fisheries act cautiously and effectively. There are several tools for assessing risks related to climate change. These tools help fisheries to define objectives, consider changes in future distribution and productivity, protect the most vulnerable species and focus sustainability efforts on more resilient species.

Finally, this effective, participatory and precautionary system must also be adaptive. Management strategies are experiments that must be constantly analyzed and reevaluated. In Cuba, lobster management considers various climatic variables to decide how to modify catch parameters adaptively, therefore ensuring that populations are stable and productive. Aquaculture is also an important adaptation strategy prioritized by nations around the world as an alternative to continue feeding millions of people and to lessen the pressure on wild-caught fisheries.

A new opportunity to move forward together

The three-year project, Application of nature-based solutions to increase coastal resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change in protected areas of Cuba, which is supported by the Caribbean Biodiversity Fund and coordinated by the National Center for Protected Areas of Cuba and the Wildlife Conservation Society, together with EDF and several Cuban institutions, is an example of collaboration in the region. This project will design and implement nature-based solutions to achieve greater socio-ecological resilience in Cubas marine protected areas and associated coastal communities. It will also help to reduce climate risks for people in the face of extreme weather events, sea level rise and less-productive fisheries. Working together in strong partnerships to find creative solutions to climate change challenges is key for the protection of marine resources and for improvements to community livelihoods in the Caribbean.

This seminar showed that there is significant progress regarding sustainable fisheries in the Caribbean and the rest of the world. However, isolated efforts are not enough. The ecological and socio-economic interconnectivity that governs fisheries systems in the Caribbean requires greater integration and cooperation among the countries in the region. Platforms are needed to facilitate coordination between communities fishing in the same waters and to create new opportunities to unite coastal communities, scientists and marine protected areas. The existing Caribbean Biological Corridor Initiative is working through its governance mechanism to position itself as one of these platforms, and EDF and several regional partners stand ready to continue to support this work.

2022 is the International Year of Artisanal Fisheries and Aquaculture, or AIPAA 2022. Join EDF and many other organizations around the world as we seize this opportunity to heed Dr. Baranges call and ensure climate-resilient fisheries for generations to come.

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For fisheries in the Caribbean, life revolves around the climate and our climate resilience - Environmental Defense Fund

A successful six-year, 10 million Canadian dollar project, funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has strengthened the quality and availability of impact-based forecasts and services to support communities in Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and the Pacific.

The project, which was launched in 2016 under the framework of the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems Initiative (CREWS), supported capacity building of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to provide more accurate and timely forecasts, including effective, risk-informed multi-hazard early warning services to vulnerable populations in 35 countries.

It fulfilled three key objectives:

Diane Campbell, Assistant Deputy Minister, Meteorological Service of Canada and Permanent Representative of Canada to WMO said, The objective of the Canada CREWS funding was to protect lives and property, by sponsoring capacity building activities in the Caribbean, the Pacific, and in South East Asia. We hope the results and lessons learned under the Canada-CREWS project can contribute to the work underway to respond to the UN Secretary-Generals recent call to action to ensure every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems within five years.

The Building Resilience to High-Impact Hydro-Meteorological Events Through Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Small Island Developing States and Southeast Asia (Canada CREWS) was centred around strengthening and leveraging WMOs network of regional centres in order to downscale support to members at the national level and promote multilateral cooperation.

This was done by sponsoring WMOs flagship initiatives including the Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) which makes available Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), using global data and models, the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS), which provides a series of products in near real-time in order to provide guidance on flash flood events, and the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative (CIFI) which builds improved operational forecast and warning capability for coastal inundation from combined extreme waves, surges and river flooding events .

WMO Director of Member Services, Filipe Lcio indicated, Multilateral cooperation was prioritized as it was recognized that cooperation amongst member states is critical across the three regions. This is due to the transboundary nature of hazards. Enhanced cooperation and collaboration amongst member states was a significant achievement of the Project. This was made possible by leveraging WMOs network of regional centres and the transboundary nature of the programmes being implemented through the Project including SWFP and FFGS.

Main achievements of the project include:

To formally close the project, WMO staff joined regional representatives from Cambodia, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam from 28 - 29 June at Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration headquarters in Hanoi, Viet Nam, for at workshop.

The event provided a platform to highlight achievements and lessons learnt from the project, discuss sustainability of project outcomes and future activities and formally close the project. It also saw the official launch of the Southeast Asia Flash Flood Guidance System, which has now transitioned into an operational phase.

"The Viet Nam Meteorology and Hydrology Administration is honored to be selected as the Regional Center for the SEAFFGS through the support of WMO, member countries and the Canada CREWS Project. This will support capacity building in flash flood warning in Southeast Asia with advance technology, integrating multiple data sources from member countries, including nowcasting data, automatic real-time observationcalculation of flash flood threshold index in 6 hours, warning of flash flood risk in 36 hours, landslides threshold in 24 hours, contributing to mitigating damage caused by flash floods and landslides in member countries, said its administrator, Prof Tran Hong Thai.

The way forward

Activities to improve warnings of severe weather, flash floods and coastal inundation will continue beyond the lifetime of the Canada CREWS project as WMO continues to engage with the benefitting NMHSs. To further ensure the sustainability of actions, the forecasting capacities and national Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems of countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific were fully assessed and long terms strategies and action plans for the NMHSs were developed.

These plans are already being put into action through new initiatives like the CREWS Cambodia and Laos Peoples Democratic Republic project, which not only sustains and but also enhances action taken through the Canada CREWS project.

By implementing activities under this new project, the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology can upgrade and strengthen many functions such as equipment, weather analysis and forecasting tools, and capacity building. As a result, the trust of our citizens and authorities will increase, said Lao Peoples Democratic Republic representative Bounteum.

For more information on the Canada CREWS project:Project Webpage

ECCCEnvironment and Climate Change Canada is the lead federal department for a wide range of environmental issues. (Link)

CREWSThe CREWS initiative is an international partnership that aims to strengthen risk information and access to early warning systems in vulnerable countries, and to leverage financing to protect populations exposed to extreme climate events. (Link).

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Improving early warnings in the Caribbean, Pacific and Southeast Asia - World - ReliefWeb

Carnival Corporation CCL and Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd RCL reached new 52-week lows on Thursday after plunging 13% and 10%, respectively on Wednesday in response to a series of analysts weighing in on the stocks.

Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo maintained Underweight on Carnival and lowered the price target from $13 to $7. Barclays analyst Brandt Montour initiated coverage on the stock with an Overweight rating and announced a price target of $14.

Montour also weighed in on Royal Caribbean, initiating coverage with an Overweight rating and announcing a $56 price target.

Montours new price targets for Carnival and Royal Caribbean suggest about a 60% increase, each, from the stocks current share price.

Despite their most recent plunge, Carnival and Royal Caribbean both look set to bounce higher over the coming days, due to bullish signals that have appeared on their daily charts. Carnival appears slightly stronger than Royal Caribbean due to the steep level of bullish divergence that developed on its chart.

It should be notedthat events affecting the general markets, negative or positive reactions to earnings prints and news headlines, can quickly invalidate patterns and breakouts. As the saying goes, "the trend is your friend until it isn't" and any trader in a position should have a clear stop set in place and manage their risk versus reward.

Want direct analysis? Find me in the BZ Pro lounge! Click here for a free trial.

The Carnival Chart: Carnival fell to a level on Thursday that the stock hasnt traded at since April 3, 2020.

Despite the steep drop, Carnivals relative strength index (RSI) has been making a series of higher lows since June 16, which indicates bullish momentum is increasing. In order for the bullish divergence to correct, the stock will either need to trade significantly higher in the near future or plummet low enough to drop the RSI back into oversold territory.

Carnival looks to be printing a long-legged doji or hammercandlestick, which could indicate higher prices are in the cards for Friday. The stock is trading in a confirmed downtrend and any bounce is likely to form another lower high.

Carnival has resistance above at $9.16 and $10 and support below at $8.53 and $7.80.

Also like Carnival, Royal Caribbean was working to print a long-legged doji or hammer candlestick on Thursday, which suggests higher prices are in the cards for Friday.

Royal Caribbean has resistance above at $40.35 and $47.42 and support below at $33.50 and $25.60.

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Between Carnival And Royal Caribbean Stocks Which Bounce Will Be Higher? - Benzinga - Benzinga

Attachments

REGIONAL: COVID-19

KEY FIGURES

79% LEARNING POVERTY ESTIMATED FOR REGION DUE TO EFFECTS OF COVID-19

Per the The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update report, a joint publication from the World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF, FCDO, USAID and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Latin America and the Caribbean is likely to have suffered the largest increase in learning poverty during the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic (learning poverty refers to children whose learning foundation falls short of their current schooling year).

The report, which cites prolonged school closures, poor COVID-19 mitigation effectiveness and household income shocks as drivers behind the rise in learning poverty, predicts that 80 per cent of children at end-of-primary school age in the region are unable to understand a simple written text, up from 50 per cent prior to the pandemic.

With children missing out on in-person learning due to complete and partial school closures that reached as many as 225 days on average, Latin America and the Caribbean learning poverty will rise from 52 to an estimated 79 per cent, a 27-point increase that is well above the next leading region (South Asia with an 18 per cent increase to 78 per cent).

THE CARIBBEAN: HURRICANE SEASON

KEY FIGURES

90% CHANCE OF FORMATION FOR SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported on 27 June 2022 that a tropical wave some 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands has a 90 per cent chance of formation through the next 5 days, citing environmental conditions conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to either form before reaching the Windward Islands on 28 June or possibly while moving on a westward track across the southern Caribbean Sea between 29 June and 1 July.

NHC indicates that countries and territories in the Windward Islands and northern coast of South America should continue monitoring progress of this system, which may prompt tropical storm watches or warnings. Regardless of formation, these areas are likely to experience local rainfalls within the next 48 hours. NHC also reports a tropical wave further out in the Atlantic with a 20 per cent chance of formation through the next 5 days.

See more here:

Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update (20-27 June 2022) as of 27 June 2022 - World - ReliefWeb

The number of new coronavirus cases rose by 18 per cent in the last week, with more than 4.1 million cases reported globally, according to the World Health Organization.

The UN health agency said in its latest weekly report on the pandemic that the worldwide number of deaths remained relatively similar to the week before, at about 8,500. COVID-related deaths increased in three regions: the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Americas.

The biggest weekly rise in new COVID-19 cases was seen in the Middle East, where they increased by 47 per cent, according to the report released late Wednesday. Infections rose by about 32 per cent in Europe and Southeast Asia, and by about 14 per cent in the Americas, WHO said.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said cases were on the rise in 110 countries, mostly driven by the omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5.

"This pandemic is changing, but it's not over," Tedros said this week during a press briefing. He said the ability to track COVID-19's genetic evolution was "under threat" as countries relaxed surveillance and genetic sequencing efforts, warning that would make it more difficult to catch emerging and potentially dangerous new variants.

He called for countries to immunise their most vulnerable populations, including health workers and people over 60, saying that hundreds of millions remain unvaccinated and at risk of severe disease and death.

Tedros said that while more than 1.2 billion COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, the average immunisation rate in poor countries is about 13 per cent.

"If rich countries are vaccinating children from as young as 6 months old and planning to do further rounds of vaccination, it is incomprehensible to suggest that lower-income countries should not vaccinate and boost their most at risk (people)," he said.

According to figures compiled by Oxfam and the People's Vaccine Alliance, fewer than half of the 2.1 billion vaccines promised to poorer countries by the Group of Seven large economies have been delivered.

Earlier this month, the United States authorised COVID-19 vaccines for infants and preschoolers, rolling out a national immunisation plan targeting 18 million of the youngest children. American regulators also recommended that some adults get updated boosters in the fall that match the latest coronavirus variants.

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WHO: COVID-19 cases rising nearly everywhere in the world | Loop Caribbean News - Loop News Caribbean