Daily Archives: June 29, 2022

In early June, as the U.S. was rushing to provide financial and military support for Ukraine, reports said that four American-made Gray Eagle drones would be part of the package. These are armed drones that are larger than the well-known Predator drone, which became a symbol of the global war on terror. However, the planned sale of these few expensive, complex drones has run into some hurdles because of concern that they might get shot down and their sophisticated systems could fall into Russian hands.

While the Pentagon isnt elaborating on the status of the Gray Eagle sales, the overall challenge that Ukraine faces in using drones against Russia illustrates the limits of drone warfare. Over the past few decades, there have been many prophecies about how drones will transform our lives, from stories about drones making pizza deliveries to discussions about drone swarms that could be used to overwhelm enemies in combat.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it put a renewed spotlight on the use of armed drones in conventional wars: The world saw how armed drones might work when both countries have them and both have air defenses that can shoot them down. Previously, countries that had a plethora of drones generally were fighting wars against insurgents or groups/countries that didnt have drones. This was the case with the U.S. experience in Afghanistan, for example.

Early reports from Ukraine said that Ukraines two dozen Turkish Bayraktar drones, a UAV that is smaller than the Predator, were able to take out Russian forces. One report praised these drones for changing the nature of warfare. However, now reports about the success of the Bayraktar in Ukraine have slackened. Its unclear whether the drones are simply not operating near the new front lines in the Donbas, or whether they are running low on the missiles they use.

The nature of drone warfare is that it is clandestine; militaries dont acknowledge that their drones may not be working well. In a conflict where everyone has smartphones, if drones are being used someone probably will take videos of them. This is because drones tend to be loud, like a flying lawnmower, and you can often see or hear them from the ground. The Associated Press reported that a video posted online on June 22 showed an alleged Ukrainian kamikaze drone flying into a Russian refinery.

Western countries want to supply Ukraine with armaments and a variety of drones are on the shopping list, including kamikaze drones such as the small Switchblade made in the U.S. These wont turn the tide anytime soon. In eastern Ukraine, where fighters in Kyiv face a tough battle with Russian troops, the limits of drone warfare appear to be on display. Conventional weapons, such as masses of artillery, are wreaking havoc. With only a few complex armed drones, Ukraine cant afford to use or lose its drones.

The era of the drone hasnt arrived because countries that use them often dont deploy enough of them, or are afraid to lose them in battle. In conflicts where they have been used, such as in Libya, they didnt turn the tide. Despite widespread employment, drones didnt stop the Taliban in Afghanistan. One can blame wider political policies for this result, asserting that countries simply havent given drone operators free rein to use them successfully.

Nevertheless, the current limitations on use of drones in war is related to the supply of drones and operating guidelines for their use. To wage a large-scale drone war, the countries that use them need more than a few armed drones and they need to not fear losing some of them. The whole point of unmanned aerial vehicles is that they can be used for dull, dirty, dangerous missions, especially those in which a country doesnt want to risk sacrificing pilots.

Seth J. Frantzman is executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. A former assistant professor of American Studies at Al-Quds University, he covers the Middle East for The Jerusalem Post and is a Ginsburg/Milstein writing fellow at the Middle East Forum. He is the author of Drone Wars. Follow him on Twitter @sfrantzman.

Read more from the original source:

Ukraine war shows limits of drone warfare - The Hill

Today, Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, and Moldovan authorities brought together European and international partners to discuss the changing situation at the borders following the outbreak of Russias unjustified invasion of Ukraine.

In the aftermath, more than 6 million Ukrainian nationals have entered the EU since Russias unprovoked invasion in February. Countries neighbouring Ukraine are particularly affected by the those fleeing the war and crossing the border.

We are bringing together relevant authorities of the EU, Ukraine and Moldova to discuss challenges posed by the war and the strengthening of border management amid the unprecedented security crisis, said Frontex Deputy Executive Director Lars Gerdes.

Together we protect Europe, shoulder to shoulder, on the spot, he added.

Opening the conference, Moldova's Minister of Internal Affairs, Ana Revenco, underlined the need to consolidate the extended border of the European Union and anticipate threats to security: We have to build a trustworthy, resilient and sustainable ecosystem together to respond to the current challenges. Cooperation between the judiciary and law enforcement is key to protect people in need and ensure security.

Deputy Director-General of the European Commssion, Olivier Onidi, added: This conference is very timely, a few days after the EU formally recognised Ukraine and Moldova as candidate countries for the European Union.

Amid the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Ukraine, EU Member States and institutions are doing their utmost to quickly and efficiently support refugees, but also the affected neighbouring countries.

Organised in Chisinau, Moldova, the conference gathered representatives from law enforcement and border authorities of the Member States, EU institutions, and international organisations. Representatives of Ukraine also took part in the event, including General Serhii Deineko, Head of Border Guard Service of Ukraine, who told the audience how the Ukrainian border guards were helping defend the country.

During the event, the participants shared lessons learned from their respective operational responses to the war in Ukraine, including how to protect fundamental rights of those fleeing the war, as well as discussed the impact of the war on cross-border crime. Majority of the people fleeing Ukraine are women and children. This poses an increased risk of trafficking in human beings and the participants gathered during the event spoke about measures undertaken by EU and national authorities to counter this and other types of cross-border crime.

The measures undertaken by European Member States and institutions include operational support by Frontex, the introduction of the temporary protection mechanism by the European Commission and relocations of asylum seekers from Moldova to EU Member States.

Frontex launched its first operation in Moldova in March this year, following the signing of a status agreement between the EU and Moldovan authorities. The agency currently has 59 standing corps officers deployed to Moldova, who have helped the national authorities process the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Frontex has also deployed officers to other countries neighbouring Ukraine to support them with responding to the crisis.

See the original post:

Frontex and Moldova host international conference on Ukraine and border security - Ukraine - ReliefWeb

The leaders of the world's wealthiest democracies, meeting in the Bavarian Alps, ended their annual summit on Tuesday vowing to do everything in their power to stop Russia from using energy as a weapon to profit from its invasion of Ukraine.

The G7 condemned Russia's missile strike on a crowded shopping mall in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, which killed as many as 18 people, as a war crime.

Canada stepped forward with a $200-million loan through the International Monetary Fund to help the government in Kyiv "meet its urgent liquidity needs."

Since the start of Russia's military action against Ukraine, Canada has committed $1.6 billion in loans and $1.3 billion in direct support to Ukraine, including $320 million in humanitarian assistance.

"It's important that the world doesn't lose its attention and focus over what's happening in Ukraine," said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "We must and we will remain committed until Ukraine and democracy prevail."

The leaders of the G7 have spent the last three days at a resort in the Alps south of Munich assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine on the world economy, including rising inflation, food and fuel prices.

They will reconvene on Wednesday in Madrid, Spain, under the NATO banner, where the Western military alliance is planning a significant increase in the number of troops it has on high readiness a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

It will also expand existing battle groups in eastern Europe, which were originally established five years ago to reassure Baltic allies in the wake of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

The decisions have the potential to be costly for NATO countries whose finances are reeling from inflation and energy shock.

Canada leads one of the existing battle groups in Latvia. Trudeau was non-committal when asked if the NATO decision means more troops.

"We, like others, are developing plans to be able to scale up rapidly, and those are conversations that I very much look forward to having over the next couple of days in NATO," he said.

WATCH | Trudeau discusses Canada's evolving NATO presence:

In their final communiqu, G7 leaders said they are "working to make sure Russia does not exploit its position as an energy producer to profit from its aggression at the expense of vulnerable countries."

They will continue to discuss ways to impose a price cap on Russian oil, an effort to starve the Kremlin's war machine.

India, whose prime minister attended the summit as an observer, has been buying discounted Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine. Trudeau met with Indian Prime Minister Nerendra Modi, but neither side has said what was discussed.

Energy security in Europe, which is trying to end its dependency on Russian oil and natural gas, was a major topic in bilateral conversations.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi signaled his interest in speaking with Trudeau about it.

"Canada is a big producer, and so the perspective of Prime Minister Trudeau is important," Draghi said, going into the meeting. "We're going to talk about this."

As they wrapped up, G7 leaders said that while they're taking action to address the current energy crisis, they have not given up on their "climate and biodiversity goals, including the energy transition" away from fossil fuels.

Originally posted here:

As war in Ukraine grinds on, G7 vows to reduce Russia's energy leverage - CBC News

For some Florida Guardsmen, leaving the troops they were training with in Yavoriv, Ukraine, was of one of the toughest moments of their military careers.

"Walking over to the Ukrainians and telling them we were leaving was painful," Army Col. Blake Glass, commander of the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, Florida National Guard, said. "We are personally invested; these are our friends and partners."

But as Army Gen. Daniel R. Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau, saw during a recent visit here the Soldiers of the 53rd IBCT found renewed purpose after reuniting with their Ukrainian partners in Germany.

"Training with them again is a great way for us to stay involved," Glass said.

The 53rd IBCT deployed about 150 Soldiers last November for what they thought would be a longer rotation training with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

For four months, the Florida Guardsmen worked alongside AFU members to build defense capacity. But in February, as an unprovoked Russian invasion loomed, the soldiers were ordered to evacuate.

Among the last U.S. service members to leave, the soldiers of the 53rd IBCT shared hugs and sorrowful goodbyes with their Ukrainian counterparts.

Now, the 53rd IBCT known as Task Force Gator is assisting Ukraine troops who have come to Grafenwoehr, Germany, to train. Many of whom have since returned to the fight.

Grafenwoehr is the largest overseas U.S. military installation and home to 7th Army Training Command. There, the 53rd IBCT is working to provide continued logistics and training support as part of Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine.

"You are here to provide the support and training they need to continue fighting for their independence and their country's sovereignty," Hokanson told a formation of Task Force Gator soldiers. "I can't thank you enough for providing that enduring support."

Assistance begins with providing immediate support to AFU members fresh off the frontlines: addressing medical issues, and providing clean beds and linens, boots and clothing. A Florida Guard chaplain and mental health counselor are also available to provide support to AFU members who have experienced trauma and lost family members and friends.

A larger part of U.S. support enhances AFU lethality by increasing its soldiers' familiarity with the weapons being delivered to Ukraine.

The Florida Guard and the 7th ATC, among others, have trained about 1,000 AFU members on weapon systems, including artillery such as the 155mm Howitzer, Glass said.

"We know when Ukrainian soldiers come through here they have a responsibility to train and get back as soon as they can," Glass said. "We want to take care of every one of their needs to ensure they can do just that."

Hokanson met with AFU members as a multi-component, multinational mix of personnel had just returned from live-fire training and were reorganizing for the next iteration of drills.

"I was impressed with the urgency of their training," Hokanson said. "It is highly focused. The Ukrainians are adept, capable and motivated."

He noted a potential challenge for Ukrainian soldiers: reading dials, instrument panels and digital screens featuring English text. While some AFU soldiers know the language, others do not. But that hasn't been a roadblock, Glass said.

"The help and training we're providing are a direct correlation to the success they're having," he said. "They have our numbers on speed dial. We can hear the guns firing while we're working through issues with them on the phone."

Many states' National Guards have built a close connection with Ukraine through the Defense Department's National Guard State Partnership Program. This Florida Guard unit is the eleventh National Guard element to rotate through JMTG-U since it was established in 2015. Soon, another unit will replace them.

"The National Guard and its State Partnership Program has been instrumental by providing that connective tissue throughout Europe to build and enable partner capacity, readiness and interoperability," said Army Brig. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, commanding general of the 7th ATC.

The National Guard has been building security partnerships for almost 30 years through the SPP, and the program now includes 93 nations around the globe. The SPP's value cannot be overstated, Hokanson said.

Germany was Hokanson's second stop on a five-nation trip to recognize and strengthen National Guard relationships with NATO allies and European partners.

"When Russia invaded, Ukraine's military leaders reached out to people they trusted people they had known for years and those were members of the National Guard," he said. "Ukrainians' first text messages were, 'We're being invaded.' Their second messages said, Here's what we need. '"

Link:

Hokanson Visits Guardsmen Training With Ukraine Troops > US Department of Defense > Defense Department News - Department of Defense

In July 1942, things were bleak for the allies.

In the Pacific, the Japanese were ascendant and had captured Singapore, Malaya, and the Philippines. In Europe, the Nazis controlled much of the continent. And in Africa, the First Battle of Alamein was concluding with German General Rommel having pursued the retreating British Eighth Army across the Egyptian frontier.

Winston Churchill described this period as follows in his history of World War II: "The battle swayed back and forth until the end of the month, by which time both sides had fought themselves to a standstillI was politically at my weakest and without a gleam of military success."

Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might be excused for possessing such feelings of melancholy this week.

While the large-scale missile strikes over the weekend have been painful, much of his attention will remain on eastern Ukraine.

Since late April, the Russians have concentrated a majority of their combat power, including ground forces, artillery and air power, on the capture of the Donbas region. It has been a bitterly fought campaign on the Ukrainian eastern front. And while historical analogies are always fraught with danger, what we have witnessed has been neither World War I stalemate, nor a first Gulf War manoeuvre.

It has resembled, instead, the battles around the French town of Caen in the immediate wake of the Normandy landings. British and Canadian troops slugged their way through strongly contested German positions in the weeks after D-Day.

So too have we seen a slugfest on the ground in eastern Ukraine. The plucky Ukrainians, fighting against a larger Russian force with a significant advantage in artillery and air power, have slowly given ground in the Luhansk Pocket.

Centred on the city of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian defenders have been fighting the Russiansand wearingthem down as much as possible.

The Russians, using large forces of mercenaries and proxy forces, have only managed to advance in single digits of kilometres each week.

We may never know just how many Russians and Ukrainians have been killed in action or wounded. But, given Ukrainian casualty figures of 100-200 killed per day, we should expect it to be in the thousands.

The Ukrainian high command, while its soldiers fight and die in the east, have had to make hard decisions about the continued defence of Sievierodonetsk. There has been significant political pressure to stay in the city. At the same time, the Ukrainians needed their forces to stay long enough to cause enough destruction to Russian first echelon forces and reserves.

All along, the Ukrainians would have had a worst-case plan to eventually cede ground to preserve their combat forces. This is a very delicate balancing act at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. It demands superior decision making and courage from senior leaders. It can go very wrong for the defending force if the decision to withdraw is made too late.

This week, the Ukrainian High Command made the decision to withdraw its forces from Sievierodonetsk to previously prepared defensive positions further to the west. Ceding ground in the east by Ukraine is a tactical realignment.

It is not the same as"'Ukraine is losing the war", as some have cast the events of the last few weeks. It is simply part of war's nature, as humans seek to impose their will on each other. War has many twists and turns.

While the Ukrainians have been fighting in the south, east and north of Kharkiv, they have also been redeveloping their logistic system around the NATO model, and re-arming with long range fires. This will stand them in good stead for the fighting ahead. But it is an ongoing challenge.

If the Russians can close off the Luhansk pocket, it remains to be seen whether they have the reserves and logistic support to maintain their offensive momentum. They, like the Ukrainians, have been slogging it out here for some time combat exhaustion will start to tell. However, in using proxy forces and the Wagner Group mercenaries in Luhansk, the Russians may have been able to preserve other regular forces for subsequent offensives.

There are other challenges that the Russians will have to address in the short term. The Ukrainians in the east will be defending along a much shorter defensive line. And, Ukrainian advances in the south around Kherson will pose a dilemma about priorities for the Russians.

Even before the massive missile attacks over the weekend, it has been a grim week for Ukraine. But even the best military organisations sometimes have bad weeks in war. This is entirely normal. Remember, after Dunkirk came the liberation of Europe. And after the First Battle of Alamein came the Second Battle of Alamein, which was the beginning of the end of the Nazis in north Africa.

George Washington lost many of his battles, and gave up territory, but kept his Continental Army alive to eventually win the war (with the help of his French allies).

So too must the Ukrainians cede ground at times to win this war. Despite their enormous courage, the Ukrainians must not be drawn into an attritional fight with a Russian Army that prefers to fight this way.

This week's events have shown again that losing territory is bad for a country at war, but losing your army is fatal.

The Ukrainians have had a terrible week. But it is not the same as them losing the war.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

Read the original post:

Ukraine's 'tactical realignment' in the east isn't a sign it's losing the war against Russia - ABC News