Daily Archives: June 3, 2022

Africans tell Putin of pain from food crisis, Kremlin denies blame – Reuters

Posted: June 3, 2022 at 12:48 pm

LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - Senegal's President Macky Sall said Russia's Vladimir Putin had told him on Friday he was ready to enable the export of Ukrainian grain to ease a global food crisis that is hitting Africa especially hard.

"President #Putin has expressed to us his willingness to facilitate the export of Ukrainian cereals," Sall wrote on Twitter after meeting Putin in his role as chairman of the African Union.

Russia was also ready to ensure the export of its own wheat and fertiliser, Sall said after the talks in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on day 100 of Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

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Sall did not say if Putin had attached any conditions to his offer. Russia has previously said it is ready to allow vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine in return for the lifting of some Western sanctions against it, a proposal that Ukraine has described as "blackmail".

Africa is heavily dependent on grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine that have been badly disrupted by the war.

"I have come to see you, to ask you to be aware that our countries, even far from the theatre (of war), are the victims of this economic crisis," Sall told Putin earlier.

In remarks that were carried on Russian state television, he said most African countries had avoided condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine at votes in the United Nations.

In the televised part of the meeting, Putin made no reference to the food crisis but spoke in general terms of Moscow's desire to develop ties with Africa.

Russia's army has seized much of Ukraine's southern coastline and its warships control access to the country's Black Sea ports. Yet it continues to blame Ukraine and the West for the resulting halt in Ukrainian grain exports.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters before the meeting: "The president will tell our African friends the real state of affairs, he will explain once again what is happening there, who has mined the ports, what is needed for grain to go, that no one on the Russian side is blocking these ports."

Moscow blames the situation on naval mines floating near Ukrainian ports and on Western sanctions that are hitting its own grain and fertiliser exports because of the impact on shipping, banking and insurance.

Sall said he had spoken to the European Union this week and said everything concerning food and grain supplies should be outside the scope of sanctions.

African countries are acutely affected by the growing crisis, which has sent prices of grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer soaring.

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, while Russia is also a key global fertilizer exporter and Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and sunflower oil.

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Additional reporting by Bate Felix in Dakar, editing by Frances Kerry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Putin clings to semblance of normality as his war grinds on – Reuters

Posted: at 12:48 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting on the road construction development via video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia June 2, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS

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LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Approaching the 100-day mark in a war that he refuses to call by its name, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a man intent on conveying the impression of business as usual.

As his army fought its way into the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk this week, Putin was making awkward small talk in a televised ceremony to honour parents of exceptionally large families.

Since the start of May, he has met - mostly online - with educators, oil and transport bosses, officials responsible for tackling forest fires, and the heads of at least a dozen Russian regions, many of them thousands of miles from Ukraine.

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Along with several sessions of his Security Council and a series of calls with foreign leaders, he found time for a video address to players, trainers and spectators of the All-Russian Night Hockey League.

The appearance of solid, even boring routine is consistent with the Kremlin's narrative that it is not fighting a war - merely waging a "special military operation" to bring a troublesome neighbour to heel.

For a man whose army has heavily underperformed in Ukraine and been beaten back from its two biggest cities, suffering untold thousands of casualties, Putin shows no visible sign of stress.

In contrast with the run-up to the Feb. 24 invasion, when he denounced Ukraine and the West in bitter, angry speeches, his rhetoric is restrained. The 69-year-old appears calm, focused and fully in command of data and details.

While acknowledging the impact of Western sanctions, he tells Russians their economy will emerge stronger and more self-sufficient, while the West will suffer a boomerang effect from spiralling food and fuel prices.

But as the war grinds on with no end in sight, Putin faces an increasing challenge to maintain the semblance of normality.

Economically, the situation will worsen as sanctions bite harder and Russia heads towards recession.

Militarily, Putin's forces have gradually advanced in eastern Ukraine but the United States and its allies are stepping up arms supplies to Kyiv, including a U.S. promise this week of advanced rocket systems.

Should Russia's offensive falter, Putin could be forced into declaring a full-scale mobilisation of reserves to bolster his depleted forces, Western defence experts say.

"This would involve more than a million people in Russia, and then of course it will be visible for those whose who have not yet realised that Russia is in a full war," said Gerhard Mangott, an Austrian academic who has met and observed Putin over many years.

That would be a hard sell to a Russian public which is mainly reliant on state media loyal to the Kremlin and has therefore been kept in ignorance of the scale of Russian setbacks and casualties.

Yet Russia is still not at that point, Mangott said, and Putin may draw some encouragement from signs of Western fatigue with the war. Divisions are emerging between Ukraine's most hawkish backers - the United States, Britain, Poland and the Baltic states - and a group of countries including Italy, France and Germany which are pressing to bring an end to the war.

"Putin is counting that the longer this war drags on, the more conflicts and frictions within the Western camp will appear," he said.

Meanwhile peace talks with Ukraine stalled weeks ago, and Putin shows absolutely no sign of seeking a diplomatic exit. "He still thinks there is a good military solution to this problem," said Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at Crisis Group.

Putin preserves the option to claim victory at any point because his stated objectives - what he called the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine - "were always goals that you could declare accomplished because they were never clearly defined and were always somewhat ridiculous", Oliker said.

The words "war" and "Ukraine" were never spoken during Putin's 40-minute video encounter on Wednesday with the prolific families, including Vadim and Larisa Kadzayev with their 15 children from Beslan in the North Caucasus region.

Wearing their best dresses and suits, the families sat stiffly at tables laden with flowers and food as Putin called on them in turn to introduce themselves. On the same day, eight empty school buses pulled into the main square of Lviv in western Ukraine to serve as a reminder of 243 Ukrainian children killed since the start of Putin's invasion.

The closest he came to acknowledging the war was in a pair of references to the plight of children in Donbas and the "extraordinary situation" there.

Russia had many problems but that was always the case, he said as he wrapped up the online meeting. "Nothing unusual is actually happening here."

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Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Nick Macfie

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U.S. goes after more Russian yachts linked to Putin in expanded sanctions – CNBC

Posted: at 12:48 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council involving the Eurasian Economic Union's (EAEU) heads of states via a video link in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022.

Sputnik | Reuters

The Treasury Department on Thursday said it expanded its Russian sanctions to further crack down on Moscow's access to yachts as the U.S. continues to punish President Vladimir Putin for his decision to invade Ukraine.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control announced that its latest actions target a Kremlin-aligned yacht brokerage, several prominent Russian government officials, and Putin's close associate and money manager, Sergei Roldugin.

Specifically, the Treasury blocked the use of two ships the Russia-flagged Graceful and the Cayman Islands-flagged Olympia, saying Putin has used them for travel in the past.

"While the leader of Russia, Putin has taken numerous trips on these yachts," the Treasury Department said in a press release, "including a 2021 trip in the Black Sea where he was joined by Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the OFAC-designated corrupt ruler of Belarus, who has supported Russia's war against Ukraine."

The U.S. and its allies have imposed a raft of unprecedented sanctions on Russia's economy since Moscow attacked Ukraine on Feb. 24.

American officials also said financial penalties will be extended to companies and individuals who owned or managed the two boats, including Cyrus-registered SCF Management Services, Ironstone Marine Investments, JSC Argument and O'Neill Assets Corp.

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The OFAC said it will target two other ships, Shellest and Nega. Shellest, officials said, occasionally travels to the coast where Putin's infamous Black Sea palace is located, while Nega ferries Putin for travel in Russia's north.

U.S. officials have for months said that Russian yacht and yacht management businesses are key to the country's industrial complex and its web of shell companies that helps Moscow's elite channel billions of dollars into luxury assets like superyachts and villas.

Many of Russia's wealthiest citizens, with businesses linked to the Kremlin, plow hundreds of millions of profits into yachts: Gold-and-marble bathroom fixtures, decks made of rare wood and sized to accommodate helicopters, cars and several swimming pools.

U.S. financial and law enforcement officials are trying to put pressure on Putin by seizing these the ships as they come to anchor in allied ports.

A report from The New York Times published Wednesday said that Imperial Yachts, a ship management company, caters to oligarchs whose wealth rises and falls based on the decisions made by Putin.

One day later, OFAC said the Monaco-based company and its Russian CEO, Evgeniy Kochman, are now subject to U.S. sanctions.

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Putin fires five more generals: report – The Hill

Posted: at 12:48 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin fired a slew of generals earlier this week as Moscow continues to experience losses among its top officers and generals during its invasion of Ukraine.

Five top generals Maj. Gens. Vasily Kukushkin, Alexander Laas, Andrey Lipilin, Alexander Udovenko and Yuri Instrankin in addition to Police Colonel Emil Musin were fired by the Russian president on Monday, the Russian newspaper Pravda reported, citing a decree extract, which a source close to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia confirmed the authenticity of to the news outlet.

Pravda, citing Russian media organization RBC, noted that a standard employee reshuffle procedure accounted for why the top officials had been fired.

But the development comes as officials have noted that Russia has suffered an unprecedented loss of top officers and generals.

In modern history, there is no situation comparable in terms of the deaths of generals. Here, on the Russian side, in a two-month period, weve seen at least a dozen, if not more, Russian generals killed, former supreme allied commander of NATO, Retired Adm. James Stavridis, told John Catsimatidis on WABC 770 AM in an interview early last month.

The United Kingdoms defense ministry also noted that Russia had likely suffered serious losses of mid and junior ranking officers amid the ongoing conflict.

Brigade and battalion commanders likely deploy forwards into harms way because they are held to an uncompromising level of responsibility for their units performance. Similarly, junior officers have had to lead to the lowest level tactical actions, as the army lacks the cadre of highly trained and empowered non-commissioned officers (NCOs) who fulfill that role in Western forces, the ministry said in an intelligence update late last month.

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Russia is winning the economic war – and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops – The Guardian

Posted: at 12:48 pm

It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.

Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didnt happen, with the result that sanctions while still incomplete have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and thats hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russias oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (76bn) more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

Thats not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.

But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

These concerns are entirely justified. Russias invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. The UKs annual inflation rate stands at 9% its highest in 40 years petrol prices have hit a record high and the energy price cap is expected to increase by 700-800 a year in October. Rishi Sunaks latest support package to cope with the cost-of-living crisis was the third from the chancellor in four months and there will be more to come later in the year.

As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. Central banks including the Bank of England feel they have to respond to near double-digit inflation by raising interest rates. Unemployment is set to rise. Other European countries face the same problems, if not more so, since most of them are more dependent on Russian gas than is the UK.

The problems facing the worlds poorer countries are of a different order of magnitude. For some of them the issue is not stagflation, but starvation, as a result of wheat supplies from Ukraines Black Sea ports being blocked.

As David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme put it: Right now, Ukraines grain silos are full. At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation.

In every multilateral organisation the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. The position is simple: unless developing nations are energy exporters themselves, they face a triple whammy in which fuel and food crises trigger financial crises. Faced with the choice of feeding their populations or paying their international creditors, governments will opt for the former. Sri Lanka was the first country since the Russian invasion to default on its debts, but is unlikely to be the last. The world appears closer to a full-blown debt crisis than at any time since the 1990s.

Putin has rightly been condemned for weaponising food, but his willingness to do so should come as no surprise. From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russias threshold for economic pain is higher than the wests, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Bidens decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesnt appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.

Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.

The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.com

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Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops - The Guardian

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Audio: Russian officers curse out Putin, others over Ukraine invasion – Business Insider

Posted: at 12:48 pm

Intercepted recordings shows Russian military officers cursing out Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders in charge of the invasion of Ukraine.

The audio recordings come from an unspecified Ukrainian intelligence agency, which intercepted the phone calls, and were provided to the Radio Svoboda investigative project "Schemes."

Excerpts of the intercepted calls were published on YouTube on Monday.

In the audio, a senior Russian officer can be heard bad-mouthing Russia's minister of defense Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu, a close ally of Putin, was one of the few Kremlin insiders who made the decision to invade Ukraine, Bloomberg reported in April.

"Shoigu is completely fucking incompetent," he says in the recording. "Just a fucking showman, for fuck's sake," he adds.

According to the investigation, the officer was Lieutenant Colonel Vladimirovich Vlasov.

Vlasov also calls Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, Russia's top commander in Ukraine, a "complete and utter imbecile" and a "brainless fucking idiot" in the recordings.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Dvornikov hasn't been seen for two weeks, leading some US officials to speculate that he may have been relieved of his post.

Vlasov was speaking to a Russian military medic, Colonel Vitaliy Kovtun, according to Radio Svoboda. Kovtun, per the recordings, refers to both Shoigu and Putin as a "fucking cunt."

Radio Svoboda contacted both men for comment.

Kovtun took the phone call and responded by calling the journalist a "fucking cunt" and threatening to report him to Russia's FSB security agency.

Vlasov answered the phone call but declined to offer a comment. He refused to answer follow-up calls, according to Radio Svoboda.

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Timeline shows years of Putin alleged health problems – Business Insider

Posted: at 12:48 pm

Speculation about President Vladimir Putin's health reached fever pitch on Sunday after former MI6 Russia spy Christopher Steele indicated the Russian president could be seriously ill.

Speaking to Sky News, Steele said Putin's health could be a factor in the unfolding invasion of Ukraine.

Since invading Ukraine Putin has had shaky media appearances and has been described with varying reliability as suffering from everything from Parkinson's disease to dementia.

Putin has for decades cultivated an image of virile masculinity at peak fitness but an investigation by independent Russian media outlet Proekt alleged that this was only possible with significant deception.

Most specifics about Putin's health are almost impossible to confirm. His top spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has repeatedly denied any issues. Medical professionals have refused to give weight to the rumors, as Deutsche Welle reported, arguing that accurate diagnoses can only be made by in-person examinations.

Here is a timeline of moments when Putin's health has come into question.

In fall 2012, Reuters cited three government sources saying Putin had back trouble and would need surgery soon.

The Kremlin denied this, but after Russian newspaper Vedomosti said that Putin had hurt himself while hang-gliding, Peskov said the trouble was due to "an ordinary sporting injury" in which Putin had strained a muscle, as The Atlantic reported.

By the end of December 2012, Proekt alleged that Putin was wearing a corset and significantly limiting or even skipping sit-down engagements due to likely back problems. The outlet cited unnamed Russian officials for the information.

On November 4, Russia's National Unity Day, the Kremlin limited itself to still photos of Putin's appearance at a ceremony in Red Square, according to Proekt. However, footage posted by religious leaders in Moscow showed the president with a slight limp.

By matching the check-in dates of medical specialists with Putin's travel schedule, Proekt found that Putin was regularly accompanied by at least five doctors in these years a number that would later swell to 13.

They included an ENT specialist, an infectious diseases specialist, a staff rescuscitologist, and a neurosurgeon, the outlet reported.

Between November 25 and December 1, Putin appeared only in pre-recorded meetings, Proekt reported. Meanwhile, 12 specialists suddenly checked in at the Sochi hospital near his residence, including his personal doctors, neurosurgeons, and a rehabilitation specialist, according to Proekt.

Putin, an avid ice hockey player, almost somersaulted when he crashed to the ground during a match in Sochi at the age of 64, CNN reported.

According to Proekt, the player Pavel Bure had crashed into him. After this, an orthopedic traumatologist known to regularly treat the president checked in to a hospital just outside Putin's residence, Proekt reported.

Between August 8 and 16 that year, the president disappeared from public view, with oncologist-surgeon Evgeny Selivanov, Proekt reported. The presence of an ENT doctor suggested a thyroid issue, the outlet said.

Selivanov joined Putin's medical entourage, flying to his location 35 times in the space of four years, the outlet reported. Only ENT doctors have seen him more often, the outlet said.

Putin disappeared from view from February 12 to 1 in 2018, just one month before polling day, Proekt reported. Acknowledging his canceled events, Peskov said Putin has a cold, per ABC News.

A COVID-19 outbreak among presidential staff in September last year led Putin to self-isolate for two weeks. Ten days later, he denied any ill health after he was seen coughing during a televised meeting.

Soon after, The New York Times reported that Putin was imposing increasingly stringent isolation procedures on anyone due to see him face-to-face including isolation for two weeks prior and the requirement to pass through a disinfectant tunnel.

This came weeks after Russia lifted most of its COVID-19 measures nationwide, the paper reported.

By February 2022 as world leaders implored him not to invade Ukraine Putin was having his in-person meetings at an extraordinarily long table.

Bizarre footage of Putin meeting with his defense minister on April 21 showed the president gripping the edge of the table, looking uncomfortable and fidgety, as Newsweek reported.

Along with his bloated appearance, the video prompted a welter of tabloidspeculation none of which was confirmed that he could be suffering from the effects of steroid treatment or Parkinson's disease.

Further unverified rumors were emanated from an anonymous Telegram account claiming to be a former Kremlin insider.

In early May, New Lines Magazine obtained a recording of an unnamed Russian oligarch saying that Putin "is very ill with blood cancer."

The oligarch, who did not know he was being recorded, went on to criticize Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying that "we all hope" he dies, and that "the problem is with his head."

Ukrainian intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Sky News on May 14 that plans to overthrow Putin were in motion within Russia, and that the 69-year-old was in a "very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick."

Putin is sick with cancer, Budanov said. He denied trying to spread that idea for propaganda to advantage Ukraine, but did not provide evidence for his claims.

The former head of Britain's MI6 spy agency, Richard Dearlove, suggested on a podcast Putin has long-term illness by saying he will be "gone" by the end of the year, and would be put into "the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia."

Former MI6 Russia bureau chief Christopher Steele also said in an interview with British talk radio station LBC that Putin is "increasingly ill," to an extent that is affecting his leadership in the Kremlin and managing the war in Ukraine.

He said that Putin often has to take breaks from meetings to receive medical treatment.

Steele compiled the partially discredited Trump-Russia dossier that contained the explosive "pee tape" allegation, whose existence has never been confirmed.

Western officials cast doubt on numerous rumors about Putin and how his health affected his leadership. The comments came after Budanov claimed there had been a failed assassination attempt on Putin two months prior.

But the officials, who spoke anonymously, made no confirmation either way about Putin's health but called it "speculation." They also refused to confirm the assassination claim.

One said: "President Putin is firmly in control of his inner circle, the country, and the decisions which are being made, irrespective of any speculation about his health."

In an interview published May 24 with Ukrainian newspaper Pravda, Budanov claimed that he can "fully confirm" that Putin has cancer. He did not offer any evidence for his claims, however.

"He has several serious illnesses, one of which is cancer," Budanov said.

"But it is not worth hoping that Putin will die tomorrow. He has at least a few more years," he added. "Like it or not, but it's true."

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told French TV station TF1, according to Russian news agency TASS: "President Vladimir Putin makes public appearances on a daily basis. You can see him on TV screens, read and listen to his speeches.

"I don't think that a sane person can suspect any signs of an illness or ailment in this man.

"I'll leave it on the conscience of those who disseminate such rumors despite daily opportunities for everyone to see how he and others look like."

Three US intelligence and military experts also told Insider's John HaltiwangerandMattathias Schwartz that they are not taking the claims of illness very seriously, citing a lack of evidence.

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Putin warned: ‘Radioactive contamination would spread to Russian land’ – Express

Posted: at 12:48 pm

If Putin were to restore to nuclear arms, the MI6 veteran claimed, "radioactive contamination would spread to Russian land".

That, he suggested, might be reason enough to prevent such an escalation.

Sir John's reference to the natural damage brought by the use of weapons echoes claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday about the environmental price of Russia's war.

He told an audience at the Globsec security conference in Bratislava that the military's conflict isn't just a human horror, but an ecological disaster, too.

Speaking via video link, Mr Zelensky said: "Let us again remember the significance of the Danube river, this is the source of prosperity for various cities: Bratislava, Vienna, Budapest.

"To make sure the Danube remains clean and safe to ensure that its economic potential, including transport potential, is in full swing, we need cooperation from all countries which have received this great gift of nature."

Ukraine LIVE:Sending your soldiers to die! Putin faces mutiny

The Danube River runs through Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania, along with Ukraine.

Mr Zelensky continued: "The pollutants can contaminate not only the rivers of Ukraine but also the Black and Azov Seas.

"The threats to the entire humanity is just impossible to be organised in a comprehensive way without being cognisant of what is taking place on water."

Sir John, who headed the MI6 between 2009 and 2014, dubbed the invasion of Ukraine "the most dangerous crisis since the Cold War".

While acknowledging the threats of Russia's "military power", which include "a huge nuclear arsenal", the former intelligence head said the chances of Putin triggering a nuclear escalation had decreased considerably since the conflict began.

His predictions are in line with those of top NATO and US officials who say the war is likely to end at the negotiating table but stress the need for Kyiv to be able to defend itself to strengthen its position at peace talks.

At a joint news conference in Washington on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said how the fighting evolves will impact any future negotiations.

Mr Stoltenberg told reporters: "Wars are unpredictable.

"We were able to predict the invasion, but how this war will evolve, it's very hard to predict.

"What we do know is that almost all wars end at some stage at the negotiating table."

Mr Blinken said: "We can't say when, we can't say exactly how.

"What we can say is what we will do to make sure that Ukraine has the means to defend itself and has the strongest possible hand at every step along the way."

The full-scale Russian invasion, which is hitting the 100-day mark on Friday, was launched by Vladimir Putin on February 24.

It has led to the deaths of thousands of people, devastated cities and towns and triggered a massive exodus of more than six million Ukrainians.

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Putin sets the stage for NATOs second act – The Hill

Posted: at 12:47 pm

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the most successful and enduring mutual security pact in history is about to start its second act. In Act 1, the United States played the leading role in deterring Russian aggression and keeping the peace in Europe. In Act 2, Europeans will take center stage.

With longtime neutrals Sweden and Finland knocking on its door, NATO likely will grow to 32 members. For the transatlantic allies, however, the wise course isnt merely to expand NATO, but to reinvent it.

How to seize that opportunity which goes well beyond hackneyed calls for greater burden-sharing should be the focal point of NATOs Madrid summit later this month.

NATO should be fundamentally reconfigured to reflect three geopolitical realities. First, since its creation in 1949, the alliance has expanded dramatically as many of Europes ancient feuds and rivalries have been subsumed within pan-European values and institutions.

Second, NATOs 27 European members (excluding Turkey) vastly exceed Russia in economic clout, population and military spending. Third, America inexorably is turning its strategic gaze to China and the balance of power in Asia.

All three developments point toward the same conclusion: Its time for Europe to cast aside the crutch of dependence on U.S. military might and assume primary responsibility for defending itself.

Whats brought Europe to this moment is not so much Russian President Vladimir Putins second invasion of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian peoples valiant and effective resistance. Their fight for freedom has revived and unified the democratic West, while also puncturing the myth of Russian military prowess.

At the end of World War II, there was no way a devastated and destitute Europe could stand up to a victorious Soviet Union without U.S. power. But the Soviet imperium dissolved decades ago, while Europe has steadily become more prosperous, more economically and politically intertwined, and largely liberal and democratic in outlook.

As a result, what Russian strategists call the correlation of forces has shifted decisively in Europes favor.

With a population of around 145 million, Russia has the worlds 11th largest economy with an annual Gross Domestic Product of $1.48 trillion. NATO is a juggernaut in comparison. Its 30 members have a combined population of nearly 604 million and GDP of $18 trillion.

But even if you take the United States out of the equation, our European allies are more than a match for Moscow in both economic and military terms. Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy all have economies larger than Russias. Moscow devotes about $66 billion a year to its military forces; these four NATO countries alone spend more than three times as much.

The key questions are whether Europe can muster the will to translate these enormous advantages into a credible military deterrent of its own, and whether this should happen within or outside of NATO.

Overreliance on American protection has had catastrophic effects on E.U. security, contend Vincent-Immanuel Herr and Martin Speer of Germanys Charlemagne Prize Academy. They and others propose a European army organized under the auspices of the European Union.

This is in keeping with French President Emmanuel Macrons ambitious call for Europe to embrace strategic autonomy and become a global foreign policy actor.

Former President Trumps abrasive America First policy convinced many Europeans that they cant rely on U.S. power in perpetuity. Given its preponderant strengths and demonstrated habits of cooperation, theres no longer any reason for Europeans to contract out their security to anyone else.

True, but it makes little sense to organize Europes common defense forces under the EU, which has no security remit or mutual defense assurances. If Sweden and Finland join, NATO will encompass almost all of Europe except four small countries. It has a unified command structure, Article 5s one for all, all for one guarantee and, crucially, North American partners.

As Europeans develop forces capable of protecting themselves from a Russian attack, the United States must stay engaged in NATO both as a strategic reserve and an arsenal for our democratic allies.

Whats more, while Britain and France are members of the nuclear club, they cant supplant Americas indispensable role in nuclear deterrence. Russias stockpile of more than 4,000 nuclear weapons is really all that remains of its former superpower status. Thats why Putin and his cronies keep raising the specter of nuclear escalation as the NATO allies funnel arms into Ukraine and clamp stringent sanctions on the Russian economy.

So far, Europe hasnt blinked. On the contrary, Germany has announced a $100 billion increase in military spending, and with the conspicuous exception of Hungary European governments also are moving to reduce their heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil.

By taking charge of their own security, Europeans would remove a major irritant in their relations with the United States, while also enabling Washington to devote more strategic attention and resources to shoring up stability and security in the Asia Pacific.

Already, Washingtons contribution to NATOs budget has fallen from 22 percent to 16 percent, roughly the same as Germanys. Over time, the United States should be able to bring home many of the 100,000 U.S. troops now stationed in Europe, while leaving smaller forces to act as a tripwire.

After 70 years of deference to Washington on security matters, European leaders will need to reacquaint themselves with the risks, responsibilities and moral ambiguities of wielding hard power. They (and especially Germans) also will need to question habits of passivity and pacifism and disabuse themselves of sanctimonious notions about the efficacy of their multilateral and soft-power approach to containing international conflicts.

Americans should welcome Europes return to the historical stage as a second liberal bulwark, alongside the United States, to defend the free world against the league of pugnacious autocracies led by Russia and China.

Will Marshallis president and founder of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI).

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Putin sets the stage for NATOs second act - The Hill

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Turkey Is Playing Off NATO Against Russia with Eyes on Northern Syria – Newsweek

Posted: at 12:47 pm

Turkey appears to be leveraging its position as a deciding factor in the U.S.-led NATO military alliance's attempts to counter Russia's war in Ukraine by planning a new operation in northern Syria, where factions backed by Washington and Moscow both oppose Ankara's aims.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared his opposition to the bids of Finland and Sweden to join NATO, arguing that the two countries offer safe havens for supporters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a separatist group that has waged an insurgency for Kurdish autonomy for more than three decades. The Turkish leader's approval would be necessary for the Western bloc to greenlight its latest expansion.

As Erdogan held steadfast in his view, Turkish officials have begun talking openly of plans to launch a new incursion across the Syrian border against forces they associate with the PKK. Among these factions are the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a Pentagon-backed group that serves as a vanguard in the U.S.-led coalition's ongoing fight against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS).

Former Turkish diplomat and current Carnegie Europe visiting scholar Sinan lgen told Newsweek that with the U.S. depending on Turkey to hold the NATO line against Russia in Ukraine, its opposition to the planned incursion is likely to be muted.

"The calculus perhaps on the side of Ankara is that the West needs Turkey on board with NATO enlargement," lgen said, "and, therefore, at a critical time like this, there will be less criticism of Turkey's cross-border operation."

Still, he argued that the situation "has put Turkey and the U.S. on a collision course."

Further tying the timing of Turkey's planned incursion into northern Syria to the war in Ukraine, lgen pointed to the presence of Russian troops also operating within a "cordon sanitaire," which was established as a security zone along the Syrian-Turkish border in 2019 after Ankara struck back-to-back deals with Washington and Moscow to dismantle positions of the Syrian Democratic Forces within a "safe zone."

Russia, however, supports the Syrian government, which views Turkey, like the U.S., as an illegitimate occupying force. But as Turkey continues a years-long balancing act in its relations with the U.S. and Russia, lgen argued that Erdogan also saw an opportunity to bypass Moscow's protests over Ankara's objectives in Syria.

"There is a calculation in Ankara that Russia will not anymore oppose such an intervention," lgen said, "and will not want to oppose such an intervention because Russia now is also more in need of retaining Turkey as a diplomatic partner on Ukraine."

As Erdogan makes the case for what would be Turkey's fourth major intervention in Syria, following Operation Euphrates Shield in 2016, Operation Olive Branch in 2018 and Operation Peace Spring in 2019, he and his government have held high-level consultations with both Washington and Moscow.

In a call with Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin, White House national security council advisor Jake Sullivan "reiterated the importance of refraining from escalation in Syria to preserve existing ceasefire lines and avoid any further destabilization," and "urged continued dialogue and diplomacy to resolve any disagreements in the eastern Mediterranean region," according to a White House readout.

Sullivan also "expressed support for Turkey's continued direct talks with Sweden and Finland to resolve concerns over their applications for NATO membership, which the U.S. strongly supports."

Kalin, however, "pointed out that the countries that seek to become a member of NATO should adopt the Alliance's values and principles on security and combatting terrorism," and "stressed in this sense that Sweden and Finland have to take concrete steps regarding the terrorist organizations that threaten Trkiye's national security," according to the Turkish presidency's readout.

"It was stressed that the PKK/PYD/YPG terrorist organization continued to pose a threat to Trkiye's national security and Syria's territorial integrity," the readout added. "It was underscored that Trkiye would determinedly maintain its fight against all the terrorist organizations."

The U.S. also considers the PKK a terrorist organization, and officially opposes its presence, even if members of the Syrian Democratic Forces and its affiliated People's Protection Units (YPG) and the leading Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) at times openly flaunt PKK imagery, including pictures of its leader, Abdullah calan, who has been imprisoned in Turkey since 1999.

Reached for comment by Newsweek, the State Department referred to spokesperson Ned Price's remarks Tuesday, in which he said President Joe Biden's administration would continue "to support the maintenance of current ceasefire lines" and "condemn any escalation that has the potential to jeopardize that."

"We believe it is crucial for all sides to maintain and respect ceasefire zones, principally to enhance stability in Syria and to work towards a political solution to the conflict," Price added. "We believe that any effort to do otherwise could be counterproductive to our goals to bring about an end to the broader conflict in Syria, but also the tremendous progress that we've made together, including with our Kurdish partners, in the effort against ISIS that has achieved such important steps in recent years."

And while Price asserted that U.S. officials "recognize Turkey's legitimate security concerns on its border," he emphasized that the administration was "concerned that any new offensive would further undermine regional stability and would put at risk those hard-won gains in the campaign against ISIS."

A day before Sullivan and Kalin's call, Erdogan spoke directly via telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin's readout made no mention of Syria, only that "the presidents also reviewed a number of regional issues," and instead focused on the situation in Europe.

"Discussing the developments in Ukraine, they emphasized the need to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and to remove the threat of mines in these waters," the Russian account stated. "Vladimir Putin noted Russia's willingness to facilitate unimpeded cargo shipping in coordination with its Turkish partners including grain shipments from Ukrainian ports."

On Ukraine, Erdogan presented himself as a mediator, stating "Trkiye's readiness, if agreed upon in principle by both parties, to meet with Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations in Istanbul, and to assume a role in a possible observation mechanism," according to the Turkish account.

Turkey has joined NATO and a number of partnered countries in condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine, and has provided Kyiv with advanced Bayraktar TB2 drones that have inflicted significant casualties among Russian troops. These unmanned aerial systems have been deployed in past operations with similar lethality against Russian allies in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as in Libya and Syria.

In addition to blocking Finland and Sweden's NATO aspirations, Turkey has also shown it can cause frustrations for the bloc in other ways. It holds the keys to the straits that lie between the Mediterranean and Black Seas as part of the 1936 Montreux Convention, and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the Anadolu Agency that Ankara has, "in accordance with the convention, cancelled or postponed planned NATO drills."

Speaking to Putin on Monday, Erdogan also made clear his intentions in Syria.

"Drawing attention to the PKK/YPG terrorist organization's continued attacks in Syria against Trkiye and Syrian civilians," the readout said, "President Erdoan said that the terror-free zone with a depth of 30 kilometers from the Trkiye border, as had been stated in the memorandum of understanding of October 2019, was not established, and that it was imperative to make these areas secure."

Newsweek has reached out to the Turkish embassy in Washington for comment.

The Syrian Democratic Forces and their political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council, have raised protests toward the planned Turkish attack.

A statement published last week by the group alleged "a Turkish plot to establish a black belt of terrorist organizations" involving front-line deployments of the powerful Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and Hurras al-Din, currently aligned with Al-Qaeda, in the leadup to Ankara's operation.

These groups, along with Turkey-backed opposition factions active in the rebel-held province of Idlib and across the border security corridor, have been accused of human rights abuses, especially against Kurds and other ethnic and religious minorities.

Syrian Democratic Council representative to the U.S. Sinam Mohamad told Newsweek that, "Turkish threats against our semi-autonomous region are nothing new."

"They are serious and we take them that way," Mohamad said. "However, it is not easy for Turkey to obtain the approval of countries directly engaged in Syria to carry out unprovoked military operations against us. I believe the United States has made it clear to Turkey that a new Turkish military campaign in northeast Syria will have repercussions. Attacks against the SDF will only serve ISIS' interest and run counter to the interests of the anti-ISIS coalition including the U.S."

And when it comes to the U.S. role, she said the Syrian Democratic Council is "in dialogue" with the Biden administration regarding the prospect of yet another Turkish assault. She said she believed that "we are in full agreement with it that a new Turkish campaign will only de-stabilize the region," serving not only ISIS' interests but also those of other "Islamic radical groups operating in Syria," while creating "a new humanitarian crisis including by displacing hundreds of thousands of Syrians as previous Turkish military operations did."

However, when asked if she was concerned that the U.S. focus was elsewhere, given the events in Europe, she said she still held hope that Washington would not abandon its partners in Syria.

"The war in Ukraine has impacted us all in some way," Mohamad said, "but I don't believe that the administration has taken its eye off of Syria, and it remains fully committed to ensuring our region's security and stability."

Also warning against a new Turkish incursion was Syria's central government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, who with help from Russia and Iran remains firmly in power more than 11 years after crackdowns on protests devolved into an uprising backed by the U.S. and its partners, including Turkey.

In a letter dated Monday to the U.N. Security Council and shared with Newsweek, Syria's permanent mission to the U.N. stated that Damascus "rejects the military hostilities launched by the occupying Turkish forces for several days" across towns and villages in northeastern and northwestern Syria, which have "led to the death and injury of many civilians, caused massive damage to public and private properties and infrastructure in those areas, and displaced dozens of Syrian families from their homes and villages there."

"The Turkish regime attempts to establish the so-called 'safe zone' on Syrian territory is a shameful act of aggression and part of the policy of ethnic and demographic cleansing practiced by the government of Erdogan in the occupied Syrian territories," the letter said, "and they are war crimes and crimes against humanity that are rejected by the United Nations Charter, international law and international humanitarian law."

Though Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces' semi-autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria are at odds about the country's future, they are both opposed to Turkey and the insurgent militias aligned with it. The two sides have even cooperated at times to this end, even if repeated attempts at a broader reconciliation remain stalled.

But while the Syrian Democratic Forces view the U.S. as a potential barrier to Turkey's designs in northern Syria, the Syrian government sees it as an enabler.

"Syria affirms that its sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity will not be the subject of blackmail or bargaining by the Turkish extremist regime in collusion with its ally in Washington and with some Western countries," the letter said, "that seek cheap political gain at the expense of the Syrian people and their territorial integrity and in contradiction to the international unanimity on the need to preserve and respect the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic."

It remains unclear whether the Biden administration would increase its opposition to Erdogan's plans in Syria from words to action.

Myles B. Caggins III, a Council on Foreign Relations military fellow who previously served as senior spokesperson for the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition during Turkey's last incursion into Syria, told Newsweek that any U.S. military resistance to another such incursion is unlikely.

"It's beyond my imagination that the United States would physically defend our partners on the ground against aggression from a NATO ally," Caggins said. "I think that's why we've seen high level talks with the U.S. national security adviser and his counterpart, and I think it's also why President Biden has strongly supported the applications of Finland and Sweden into NATO, despite opposition from Turkey."

And while he said any U.S. use of force against a NATO ally would be virtually "unprecedented," he also pointed out that "Turkey has used physical aggression against Greece," a longstanding rival yet fellow NATO member with whom tensions remain high.

"So if anybody doesn't play by NATO rules, it seems to be them," Caggins said of Turkish leadership.

But Ankara has repeatedly voiced its displeasure with what it perceives as NATO indifference to its security concerns in northern Syria, as well as to the vast migration crisis created by the conflict there that has seen Turkey take in some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, more than all other nations combined. Frustrated by NATO inaction over that crisis, Erdogan five years ago openly discussed invoking the alliance's Article 5, NATO's collective defense clause, which has only been used once in history, in response to the 9/11 attacks against the U.S. two decades ago.

Frustrated over U.S. support of Kurdish forces in Syria, Ankara's relations with Washington soured even further in the final weeks of the Trump administration, which imposed sanctions on Turkey for acquiring Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system. Biden has not yet made any movement to lift these restrictions or move forward with an indefinitely suspended F-35 fighter jet deal, despite Erdogan's repeated requests.

The Biden administration has, however, reportedly called on Congress to back a proposal to provide Turkey with upgraded F-16s, older versions of which Turkish forces have flown in operations in Syria and Iraq, where Kurdish forces have also been under bombardment. These aircraft may offer Turkey an enhanced capability to target the Syrian Democratic Forces as they continue to clash with ISIS and hold up to 10,000 detainees of the jihadi group.

"The world said we need to stop ISIS, and the people who stopped ISIS in Kobani in 2015 were the Syrian Democratic Forces," Caggins said. "These are the same forces who were the champions against ISIS, and who our NATO ally is ready to attack."

But he noted that the situation was complicated by Ankara's ongoing coordination with Moscow, which he said, beyond seeking to retain its presence in a unified Syria, "has a longstanding goal of fracturing NATO and causing multiple dilemmas for the United States."

Caggins stated that the overarching goal of the U.S. remains clear.

"The priority of the United States is going to be to keep NATO intact," he said.

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Turkey Is Playing Off NATO Against Russia with Eyes on Northern Syria - Newsweek

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