Monthly Archives: May 2022

Sat, May 28 20224:55 PM EDT

This photograph shows a railway wagon and sleepers burning after a shelling near the Lyman station in Lyman, eastern Ukraine, on April 28, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images

Russian forces stepped up their assault on the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk on Saturday after claiming to have captured the nearby rail hub of Lyman, as Kyiv intensified its calls for longer-range weaponry from the West to help it fight back in the Donbas region.

Slow, solid Russian gains in recent days point to a subtle momentum shift in the war, now in its fourth month. The invading forces appear close to seizing all of the Luhansk region of Donbas, one of the more modest war goals the Kremlin set after abandoning its assault on Kyiv in the face of Ukrainian resistance.

Russia's defense ministry said on Saturday its troops and allied separatist forces were now in full control of Lyman, the site of a railway junction west of the Siverskyi Donets River in the Donetsk region that neighbors Luhansk.

However, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said the battle for Lyman continued, the ZN.ua website reported.

Sievierodonetsk, some 60 km (40 miles) from Lyman on the eastern side of the river and the largest Donbas city still held by Ukraine, was under heavy assault from the Russians.

"Sievierodonetsk is under constant enemy fire," Ukrainian police posted on social media on Saturday.

Russian artillery was also shelling the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road, which Russia must take to close a pincer movement and encircle Ukrainian forces.

"There was significant destruction in Lysychansk," the police said.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20221:08 PM EDT

A senior pro-Russian official in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson told Reuters on Saturday that nearby fighting could affect the timing of its formal bid to join Russia and a decision was likely "towards next year."

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-backed Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, also said in a video call that the process might involve a referendum, backtracking on previous comments that none would be needed.

Asked about the timetable for joining Russia, he replied: "It won't happen by autumn. We're preparing an administrative system and then towards next year we will see what the situation is like."

Stremousov told Russian state media on May 11 that Kherson, just north of Crimea and the only regional capital that Russia has captured in more than three months of fighting in Ukraine, would ask President Vladimir Putin to incorporate it into Russia by the end of 2022. He said at the time: "There will be no referendums."

In his interview with Reuters, however, he said there could be a vote.

"We'll announce later when some kind of vote or plebiscite is planned, but it won't be today and it won't be tomorrow because our first task is to restore order in the Kherson region," he said.

Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies have since March predicted that Moscow would hold a referendum on incorporating Kherson into Russia, as it did after seizing Crimea in 2014.

Russia has said that the fate of the Kherson region is for local residents to decide. Ukraine has pledged to expel Russian forces from all the land they have seized.

A small-time local politician and anti-vaccine video blogger before the arrival of Russian troops, Stremousov, 45, has teamed up with pro-Russian former Kherson mayor Volodymyr Saldo, serving as his deputy in the region's Russian-appointed government.

Both Stremousov and Saldo are wanted for treason by Ukraine.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 202210:28 AM EDT

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the plenary session of the First Eurasian Economic Forum in Bishkek, via video link from Moscow, Russia May 26, 2022.

Mikhail Metzel | Sputnik | Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of France and Germany in a phone call on Saturday that Russia was willing to discuss ways to make it possible for Ukraine to resume shipments of grain from Black Sea ports, the Kremlin said.

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, while Russia is also a key global fertilizer exporter and Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and sunflower oil.

"For its part, Russia is ready to help find options for the unhindered export of grain, including the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports," the Kremlin said.

It said he also informed French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Russia was ready to increase its export of fertilizers and agricultural products if sanctions against it were lifted - a demand he has raised in conversations with the Italian and Austrian leaders in recent days.

Ukraine and Western countries have accused Russia of weaponizing the food crisis created by its invasion of Ukraine, which has sent the prices of grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer soaring.

Russia has blamed the situation on Western sanctions against it, and on the mining of Ukrainian ports.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20229:34 AM EDT

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron attend a news conference ahead of a Weimar Triangle meeting to discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis, in Berlin, Germany, February 8, 2022.

Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The group discussed stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with the Kremlin saying Kyiv was to blame for the current impasse. Putin "confirmed the openness of the Russian side to the resumption of dialogue," Russia said in a read-out following the 80-minute call.

Scholz and Macron called on Putin "to engage in serious direct negotiations with the President of Ukraine and to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict," according to a read-out from the German Federal Government.

Putin also said the West delivering weapons to Ukraine could risk "further destabilization of the situation and the aggravation of the humanitarian crisis."

Jessica Bursztynsky

Sat, May 28 20229:27 AM EDT

Russia successfully test-fired a hypersonic Zircon cruise missile over a distance of about 1,000 km (625 miles), the defense ministry said on Saturday.

The missile was fired from the Barents Sea and hit a target in the White Sea, it said. Video released by the ministry showed the missile being fired from a ship and blazing into the sky on a steep trajectory.

President Vladimir Putin has described the Zircon as part of a new generation of unrivaled arms systems. Hypersonic weapons can travel at nine times the speed of sound, and Russia has conducted previous test-launches of the Zircon from warships and submarines in the past year.

Russia's military has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment during its three-month invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a "special operation", but it has continued to stage high-profile weapons tests to remind the world of its prowess in missile technology.

Last month it test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental missile, the Sarmat, capable of carrying 10 or more warheads and striking the United States.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20225:58 AM EDT

Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday that the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman had fallen under the full control of Russian and Russian-backed forces in the region.

Pro-Russian separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic had said on Friday that they had fully captured the town, a railway hub west of Sievierodonetsk.

Ukraine said on Friday that Russia had captured most of Lyman but that its forces were blocking an advance to Sloviansk, a city 20 kilometres (12 miles) southwest.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting for Lyman for several days.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20223:42 AM EDT

Russian forces have likely captured most of the Ukrainian town of Lyman in the north of the Donetsk Oblast, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry. It is seen as likely to be a preliminary operation for the next stage of Russia's Donbas offensive.

"Lyman is strategically important because it is the site of a major railway junction, and also gives access to important rail and road bridges over the Siverskyy Donets River," the U.K. ministry said via Twitter.

"In the coming days, Russian units in the area are likely to prioritise forcing a crossing of the river. For now, Russia's main effort likely remains 40 km to the east, around the Sieverodonetsk pocket but a bridgehead near Lyman would give Russia an advantage in the potential next phase of the Donbas offensive, when it will likely seek to advance on key Ukrainian-held cities deeper in Donetsk Oblast, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk."

Sam Meredith

Sat, May 28 20223:35 AM EDT

Russia has pressed its offensive to capture key points in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, with more bombing of residential areas.

Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images

Russian forces have begun direct assaults on built-up areas in Severodonetsk despite not yet having fully encircled the Ukrainian city, according to The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank.

In its latest daily assessment, the ISW said Russian forces were likely to struggle to take ground in Severodonetsk itself, citing a poor track record in operations in built-up areas in urban terrain throughout the war to date.

"Russian forces will likely continue to make incremental advances and may succeed in encircling Severodonetsk in the coming days, but Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled and Russian forces will likely be unable to increase the pace of their advances," the ISW said.

Sam Meredith

Sat, May 28 20223:24 AM EDT

Russian forces have began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk, a city in the Luhansk Oblast and one of Russia's immediate tactical priorities.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Ukrainian forces may have to retreat from their last pocket in the Luhansk region to avoid being captured, a Ukrainian official said, as Russian troops press an advance in the east that has shifted the momentum of the three-month-old war.

A withdrawal could bring Russian President Vladimir Putin closer to his goal of capturing eastern Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk regions in full. His troops have gained ground in the two areas collectively known as the Donbas while blasting some towns to wastelands.

Luhansk's governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said Russian troops had entered Sievierodonetsk, the largest Donbas city still held by Ukraine, after trying to trap Ukrainian forces there for days, though adding that Russian forces would not be able to capture the Luhansk region "as analysts have predicted".

"We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However, it is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat," Gaidai said on Telegram.

Gaidai said 90% of buildings in Sievierodonetsk were damaged with 14 high-rises destroyed in the latest shelling.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20223:23 AM EDT

Tanks of pro-Russian troops drive along a street during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the town of Popasna in the Luhansk Region, Ukraine May 26, 2022.

Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters

Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai has said there are approximately 10,000 Russian troops in Ukraine's eastern region.

"These are the [units] that are permanently in Luhansk region that are trying to assault and are attempting to make gains in any direction they can," Gaidai said on Ukrainian television.

CNBC was not able to independently verify this report.

Sam Meredith

Fri, May 27 20226:29 PM EDT

The 106m-long and 18m-high super luxury motor yacht Amadea, one of the largest yacht in the world is seen after anchored at pier in Pasatarlasi for bunkering with 9 fuel trucks, on February 18, 2020 in Bodrum district of Mugla province in Turkey.

Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

The United States won the latest round of a legal battle to seize a $325-million Russian-owned superyacht in Fiji, with the case now appearing headed for the Pacific nation's top court.

The case has highlighted thethorny legal groundthe U.S. finds itself on as it tries to seize assets of Russian oligarchs around the world. Those intentions are welcomed by many governments and citizens who oppose the war in Ukraine, but some actions are raising questions about how far U.S. jurisdiction extends.

Fiji's Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal by Feizal Haniff, who represents the company that legally owns the superyacht Amadea. Haniff had argued the U.S. had no jurisdiction under Fiji's mutual assistance laws to seize the vessel, at least until a court sorted out who really owned the Amadea.

Haniff said he now plans to take the case to Fiji's Supreme Court and will apply for a court order to stop U.S. agents sailing the Amadea from Fiji before the appeal is heard.

As part of its ruling, the appeals court ordered that its judgment not take effect for seven days, presumably to give time for any appeals to be filed.

The U.S. argues that its investigation has found that behind various fronts, the Cayman Islands-flagged luxury yacht is really owned by the sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, an economist and former Russian politician.

Associated Press

Sat, May 28 20223:22 AM EDT

More here:

Pro-Moscow Kherson official sees decision 'toward next year' on joining Russia; Kremlin forces advance in the east of Ukraine - CNBC

The sharp polarisation between mainly western liberal democracies and the rest of the world in perceptions of Russia has been laid bare in an annual global poll of attitudes towards democracy.

Within Europe, 55% of those surveyed for the Alliance of Democracies said they were in favour of cutting economic ties with Russia due to Vladimir Putins invasion of Ukraine, whereas in Asia there was a majority against, and in Latin America opinion was evenly split.

Negative views of Russia are largely confined to Europe and other liberal democracies. Positive views of Russia have been retained in China, Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Morocco, Malaysia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The annual Democracy Perception Index, carried out after the invasion of Ukraine, covers 52 highly populated countries in Asia, Latin America, the US and Europe.

Majorities in a total of 20 countries thought economic ties with Russia should not be cut due to the war in Ukraine. They included Greece, Kenya, Turkey, China, Israel, Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia, South Africa, Vietnam, Algeria, the Philippines, Hungary, Mexico, Thailand, Morocco, Malaysia, Peru, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia. Colombians were evenly split.

By contrast, among the 31 countries that favoured cutting ties, 20 were in Europe.

Although Russian diplomats will point to the findings as evidence that global public opinion does not share western interpretations of events in Ukraine, the level of distrust of Russia in some countries was high.

The countries with a widely held most negative view of Russia included Poland (net negative 87%), Ukraine (80%), Portugal (79%), Italy (65%), UK (65%), Sweden (77%), US (62%) and Germany (62%). Even in Hungary whose leader Viktor Orbn is an ally of Putin a net 32% have a negative view of Russia. In Venezuela, often seen as propped up by Russia, the local population has a net negative view of Russia of 36%.

Countries with a net positive view of Russia included India (36%) Indonesia (14%), Saudi Arabia (11 %), Algeria (29%), Morocco (4%), and Egypt (7%).

Sign up to First Edition, our free daily newsletter every weekday morning at 7am BST

Despite the mixed views about Russia, strong sympathy was shown for Ukraine. Most people surveyed in Asia, Latin America and Europe thought Nato, the US and the EU could do more to help Ukraine. In Latin America, 62% of respondents thought Nato has done too little and only 6% too much. In Europe 43% said Europe has done too little and 11% too much. In China, 34% said the US has done too much to help. Nearly half (46%) globally said that the European Union, United States and Nato were doing too little to assist Ukraine, while 11% said they are doing too much.

Negative perceptions of China are not as widespread as for Russia. British respondents were the most likely to want to cut economic ties with China if it invaded Taiwan.

View original post here:

Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows - The Guardian

This week, events in Ukraine continued to demonstrate the fluid nature of war. After their successes in the Battle of Kyiv, and the Battle of Kharkiv, the Ukrainians ceded territory in the east. It is indicative of the Russian military's determination to continue its Ukrainian campaign.

The Russians have made steady, if slow, progress in the conduct of their eastern offensive in the Donbas. These tactical advances are probably part of a wider Russian operational design to envelop the territory that forms the last parts of Luhansk under Ukrainian control.

But the Russian successes in the east are also indicators of another more important trend in this war: the Russians are starting to learn from their earlier failures.

Before exploring this in detail, a short detour is necessary to define a method for exploring where the Russians have learned.

Military organisationsincluding in Russia, the US and Australia use principles of war to instruct their soldiers, develop common tactics, and to organise combat and support formations. These principles are, in effect, maxims that represent essential truths about the practice of successful wars, military campaigns and operations.

In the context of this exploration of Russian learning, three principles of war in particular stand out. These are: selection and maintenance of the aim, concentration of force, and cooperation.

In war, and in any military action, the aim must be simple, widely understood and within the means of the forces available. The initial Russian war aims were broad ranging, and did not count on massive Western military aid to Ukraine.

It quickly became clear that these aims were beyond Russian military capacity. The Russians had allocated an invading military that was smaller than that of the state it was attacking, and failed.

More recently, the Russians as highlighted in briefings by senior Russian officershave consolidated their aims to narrower objectives in the east. And they have shifted their forces to give themselves a better chance at achieving these tighter strategic goals. This leads to the second principle of war where Russia has clearly learned.

Success in war often depends on achieving a concentration of military force at the most effective time and place. This should then be supported by efforts such as information operations and diplomacy to magnify the impact of the concentrated military forces.

Early on, the Russians sought to prosecute their war against Ukraine on four ground fronts in the north, northeast, east and south of the country. Another front was the clearly disconnected air and missile attacks against Ukraine.

As shown by the failures around Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Russians have had to reassess this approach. First, they realigned the deployment of their forces so they had fewer "fronts" to support. Second, the Russians have focused their offensive operations in one part of the country the east while largely defending other parts such as in the south and the northeast.

The preponderance of their combat power is in the east, especially Luhansk. They are using this concentration of combat forces to bludgeon their way through Ukrainian defences, destroy military units and population centres, and capture additional territory.

But in stripping forces from other regions, it has made them vulnerable elsewhere. The Ukrainians have thus launched a counter offensive around Kherson.

A final principle of war is cooperation. This is a principle that aims to ensure resources are employed to best effect through the well-planned and cunning orchestration of operations at every level.

Early in the war, it was clear the Russian Army and the Russian Air Force were poorly aligned. At the same time, the Russian inability to effectively use combined arms operations on the groundto synchronise infantry, tanks, artillery, engineers and logistics was another indication of their lack of adherence to the principle of cooperation.

The operations in the east demonstrate a degree of learning in this regard. The Russian air force sortie rate has improved, and it is concentrating much of its efforts to support ground operations in the east. At the same time, there is coordination of Russian ground forces. They have moved slowly and cautiously, used their advantage in artillery well, and have been careful not to expose their logistics to attack.

And at the higher level, the Russians have appointed a senior Russian general as the overall commander of the Ukrainian campaign. It has been a brutal and destructive approach in the east, but the Russians are likely to see it as successful.

This begs a larger question: What might be the impact of this Russian tactical learning be on the overall conduct of the war? The Russians have generated tactical momentum in the east, but how far they can carry their current advances will depend on their logistics, Ukraine's defensive strategy, and the conduct of Ukrainian offensives elsewhere that might draw away Russian forces.

And despite recent Russian gains, the overall strategic balance still appears to favour Ukraine. They have significant reserves of personnel available. The Ukrainians have also demonstrated better tactical leadership, morale and strategic planning than the Russians.

And finally, the massive inflow of Western arms, including longer range rocket artillery and precision weapons, gives the Ukrainians a significant edge over a Russian Army whose access to such systems is being constrained by Western sanctions.

All wars are ultimately a learning competition; they are in effect an adaptation battle.

Russia has demonstrated some capacity to learn from its mistakes at the tactical level. But its ability as a nation to learn and adapt to the economic, diplomatic, informational and other impacts of its flawed strategy to invade Ukraine remains to be seen.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

Read more:

The Russians may be learning from the mistakes of the Ukraine war. But are they adapting fast enough? - ABC News

National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Register

May 30 (Reuters) - SPB Exchange, Russia's second-largest bourse, said on Monday it will transfer up to 14% of U.S.-listed shares that its clients possess to a non-trading account after the central bank said it will restrict trading in some foreign shares.

Financial links between Russia and external markets have been damaged by sweeping sanctions that the West imposed after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Citing the need to protect investors' rights and interests, the central bank said it decided from May 30 to restrict trading in foreign shares that have been blocked by international clearing houses, except for shares of foreign companies that carry out "production and economic activity mostly in Russia."

Register

SPB said the decision was caused by restrictions imposed by Euroclear and will impact shares with primary listing in the United States.

"Freely traded foreign securities will be completely separated from securities that cannot be traded until the change in Euroclear's policy towards Russian depositories," SBP said in a statement.

This implies investors that used to trade U.S. stocks via SPB Exchange, which specialises on foreign shares, will retain their ownership rights but will lose access to some of their holdings of U.S. stocks, including blue chips, such as Apple (AAPL.O) or Tesla .

Tinkoff, one of Russia's leading brokerages, said it had engaged lawyers to protects interest and rights of its clients.

SPB saw a surge in trading volumes during the COVID-19 pandemic and, before Feb. 24, was hoping for a listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market in the first half of 2022 after its domestic initial public offering. read more

In money terms, the separation will affect less than 14% of all shares in clients' portfolio and will have no impact on the number of shares the bourse offers, which currently exceeds 1,650, SBP said.

The central bank's decision will not affect shares of companies with Russian roots, such as HeadHunter Group (HHR.O) Yandex N.V. (YNDX.O), Ozon Holdings PLC (OZON.O) and Cian PLC (CIAN.N).

"The Bank of Russia, SPB Exchange and trading participants are constantly working to develop a system solution, interacting with international counterparties," SPB said.

Register

Reporting by Reuters; editing by David Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Continue reading here:

Russia freezes trading in up to 14% of U.S.-listed shares on SPB Exchange - Reuters

Ukrainian officials sound alarm on Mariupol horrors elsewhere in Donbas

Officials in Ukraine are appealing for additional assistance from the west as the Donbas region risks a potential repeat of horrors seen in the city of Mariupol in recent months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also appealed for additional forces in his nightly address on Friday, as Moscow-backed separatists have pounded the countrys industrial region in recent days.

He said the attacks could leave communities in ashes, accusing Moscow of pursuing an obvious policy of genocide through mass deportations and killings of civilians.

He took a harsh tone when discussing the response from the European Union, which is locked in discussions on a deal to invoke a sixth round of sanctions one currently being blocked by Hungary, one of Moscows closest allies in the EU.

Mariupol has been left in shambles after a sustained siege, with hundreds killed and survivors forcibly deported to Russia.

EU leaders have attempted to negotiate changes to ease the global food crisis in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but said Friday little progress has been made.

If you are asking me if there are openings for peace, the answer is no, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said told reporters of the talks.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer also stated that he has engaged with Putin on a prisoner exchange, stating the Russian president indicated efforts to arrange one would be intensified.

Updated at 18.25EDT

Kari Paul here. It is nearly 3am in Kyiv and I am logging off for the day as we close the blog for the evening. Here are the latest updates on the war in Ukraine you should know.

Updated at 20.22EDT

Ukrainian officials sound alarm on Mariupol horrors elsewhere in Donbas

Officials in Ukraine are appealing for additional assistance from the west as the Donbas region risks a potential repeat of horrors seen in the city of Mariupol in recent months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also appealed for additional forces in his nightly address on Friday, as Moscow-backed separatists have pounded the countrys industrial region in recent days.

He said the attacks could leave communities in ashes, accusing Moscow of pursuing an obvious policy of genocide through mass deportations and killings of civilians.

He took a harsh tone when discussing the response from the European Union, which is locked in discussions on a deal to invoke a sixth round of sanctions one currently being blocked by Hungary, one of Moscows closest allies in the EU.

Mariupol has been left in shambles after a sustained siege, with hundreds killed and survivors forcibly deported to Russia.

EU leaders have attempted to negotiate changes to ease the global food crisis in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but said Friday little progress has been made.

If you are asking me if there are openings for peace, the answer is no, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said told reporters of the talks.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer also stated that he has engaged with Putin on a prisoner exchange, stating the Russian president indicated efforts to arrange one would be intensified.

Updated at 18.25EDT

Zelenskiy: Russian forces heavily striking Donbas

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaking in a short video address said the situation in Donbas is very difficult. He said Russian forces are concentrated in the coastal region of Ukraine and using maximum artillery reserves.

We are protecting our land in the way that our current defensive resources allow, he said. And we are doing everything to strengthen them.

Updated at 17.24EDT

Russia announced today that it expects to receive $14bn in additional energy revenue, reports AFP.

Russias finance minister announced today that the country is set to receive 1tn rubles in additional oil and gas revenues this year, noting that the additional income will be spent on Russias ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

We expect to receive up to a trillion rubles ($14.4 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues, according to the forecast that we have developed with the ministry of economic development, said finance minister Anton Siluanov during remarks that were broadcasted on Russian state television.

Siluanov further clarified that the money will be spent on additional payments to pensioners and families with children as well as to continue conducting a special operation in Ukraine, referring to Moscows invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 16.49EDT

Hello, Kari Paul here taking the helm of this blog for the next few hours. Stay tuned for updates.

The US is expected to send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine that could be announced as early as next week, reports CNN.

Following military challenges in eastern Ukraine, US officials have confirmed that the US is prepared to send advanced, long-range missile systems to aid with fighting.

The rocket systems, multiple launch rocket system or MLRS, have been a top request of Ukraine officials who say it is necessary to ward off Russias advancements.

The missile systems can fire a stream of rockets many miles further than current Ukraine weaponry, reports the Washington Post. The rocket system could be apart of a larger military package to Ukraine.

Read the full CNN article here.

Updated at 16.41EDT

Karim Khan, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC), has called on Russia to cooperate with investigations into alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine, reports AFP.

Khan said that Russian officials have refused to work with the ICC amid war crime investigations, but noted that his door is open if Russia wants to assist.

The invitation is there. My door is open, and I will also keep knocking on the door of the Russian federation, said Karim Khan in an AFP interview.

If there are allegations that the Russian federation have, if theres information that they have, if they are conducting their own investigations or prosecutions or have information thats relevant share it with us, Khan added.

Russia and Ukraine are not members of the ICC, but Ukraine has cooperated with Khans office during their investigation and accepted the courts jurisdiction.

While Khan noted that any war crime perpetrators would be brought to justice, the prosecutor refused to confirm if Vladimir Putin could be named a suspect given his involvement in Russias invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 15.54EDT

US president Joe Biden accused Vladimir Putin of attempting to wipe out Ukrainian culture and identity during a speech today, reports the Washington Post.

During a commencement speech to the US Naval academys graduating class today, Biden said that Putin was trying to wipe out the culture and identity of the Ukrainian people.

Biden further criticized Russias attack on Ukraine hospitals, schools and other civilian buildings.

Biden also said that Putin inadvertently Nato-ized all of Europe after Sweden and Finland sought out membership in the alliance following Russias invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 15.30EDT

Maya Yang

The United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR) has released the latest figures on the Ukraine wars human toll.

The latest UN figures show that from 24 February to 26 May, 4,031 civilians died during Russias invasion of Ukraine due to shelling and air strikes, including 261 children.

A total 4,735 civilians were injured. The OHCHR estimates that the actual toll of the invasion is much higher than provided estimates.

From Buzzfeed News Christopher Miller:

Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes, the OHCHR said in a statement, referring to the new figures.

OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration, it added.

Updated at 15.04EDT

Ukraines Moscow-backed Orthodox church said today that it was cutting ties with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, reports AFP.

The church declared full independence from Russia in a move that defied Russias spiritual authorities.

We disagree with the position of Patriarch Kirill of Moscow on the war, said the church, referring to the head of the Russian Orthodox church who is also a close ally of Vladimir Putin.

The council condemns war as a violation of Gods commandment You shall not kill and expresses condolences to all those who suffered in the war, said the church following a council meeting focused on Russias aggression where the Ukraine Orthodox church declared full autonomy from Russia.

The Moscow branch of the Ukraines Orthodox church was previously fully aligned with Patriarch Kirill, who expressed his support of Putin and the invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 14.44EDT

A Nato defence ministry meeting will take place on 15 and 16 June, reports Nexta.

The meeting, taking place in Brussels, will include participation from Ukraine, Georgia, Finland and Sweden.

Updated at 15.27EDT

Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat from the final pocket of resistance in the eastern region of Luhansk to avoid being captured, the regional governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said.

In a post on Telegram, Gaidai referred to the near-surrounded cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, writing:

The Russians will not be able to capture Luhansk region in the coming days as analysts have predicted.

He added:

We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However it is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat.

Updated at 13.42EDT

The Kremlin is considering a second assault on Kyiv despite failing to capture the Ukrainian capital at the outset of the war, according to the independent news website, Meduza.

Sources close to the Kremlin and inside the Putin administration said confidence has spread to the leadership of United Russia, the countrys ruling political party, that a full-scale victory in Ukraine is possible before the end of the year.

One source said:

Well grind them [the Ukrainians] down in the end. The whole thing will probably be over by the fall.

Russias leadership has minimum and maximum thresholds for declaring a successful and completed special military operation in Ukraine, sources said.

The bare minimum needed to declare victory is the complete capture of the Donbas region, according to sources, while the maximum goal would be the capture of Kyiv.

The editor of the English-language edition of Meduza, Kevin Rothrock, said the report suggests that Ukraine is losing the information war for the first time since the invasion.

Kremlin officials are also sceptical that western countries can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on, the website reports.

Another source said:

Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. This is both money and arms production that they need for themselves. Closer to the fall, theyll have to negotiate [with Russia] on gas and oil, before the cold season arrives.

It has not been possible to independently verify this information.

Updated at 13.30EDT

Updated at 13.17EDT

Austrias chancellor, Karl Nehammer, said Vladimir Putin told him that Moscow was ready to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine and that there should be progress on the matter.

During the 45-minute call between the two leaders, the Russian president had expressed readiness to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine, Nehammer told reporters.

Nehammer said:

The Russian president has assured us that the International Red Cross must and should have access to the prisoners of war. Of course, he is also demanding access to Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine.

He added:

If he is really ready to negotiate is a complex question.

In a separate statement, the Kremlin said Putin had accused Ukraine of sabotaging talks with Moscow during his call with the Austrian chancellor.

Putin also informed Nehammer that attempts to blame Russia for difficulties in shipping grain worldwide were groundless, pointing instead to western sanctions, the Kremlin said.

Nehammer said the Russian president had given signals that he is quite willing to allow exports via the seaports, adding:

The real willingness will only become apparent when it ... is actually implemented.

Updated at 12.53EDT

A video appears to show a series of explosions near Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are close to encircling Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region and have increased attacks in Donbas generally.

Updated at 12.30EDT

Continued here:

More than 4,000 civilians have died since Russia invaded, says UN as it happened - The Guardian

In a speech on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed the long-awaited outlines of the Biden administrations official posture toward China. Rather than Vladimir Putins Russia, Mr. Blinken said, it is China that represents the most potent and determined threat to the American-championed world order.

Only China, he continued, has both the intent to reshape the international order and the power to do so, he said. The United States will seek to rally coalitions of other nations to meet Beijings challenge.

The writing had been on the wall. Just days earlier, President Biden pledged to defend Taiwan if China moved to seize the democratically ruled island; he met with regional allies; and his administration proposed a new plan to counter Chinas growing economic clout in Asia.

But the intensifying fixation on Chinas potential to disrupt the world order shrinks space for cooperation with Beijing and distracts from the real threat in the world: Russia.

Under Mr. Putin, Russia demolished the Chechen capital of Grozny in 2000, invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and used its air force in 2015 and 2016 against opponents of Syrias Bashar al-Assad. His regime has used cyberattacks, brutalized or assassinated domestic opponents and passed laws that impose draconian prison sentences on anyone questioning the state. He launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine and has hinted at possibly using nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin has not just declared his intent to redraw international borders and resurrect the ghost of the former Soviet Union, he has acted on it.

Thwarting further Russian misbehavior through trade embargoes, preventing resupply of the countrys military and establishing an international phalanx against Mr. Putin requires global cooperation. That includes China.

We need to be cleareyed about China, of course. It is without doubt a more powerful potential adversary than Russia on every metric military, economic and ideological. The Communist Party, under the firm control of Xi Jinping, pursues a form of state-sponsored capitalism that disadvantages foreign companies in the China market and builds up powerful national champions. The primacy of the party trumps rule of law, and free-speech and political rights are harshly suppressed. Chinas appalling treatment of its Uyghur minority and suppression of basic rights in Hong Kong have been rightly condemned.

China also spends more on its military than any country besides the United States, which is intended to counter American military pre-eminence in East Asia. Rising nationalism is expressed in the belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China and that the South China Sea is a Chinese lake.

But these issues dont necessarily make China a threat to American prosperity and security, not unless you believe in every antagonistic word coming from Chinese officials, every war plan devised by its military, and the inevitability of the Thucydides trap the notion that emerging powers will tend toward conflict with established ones. Neither does it follow that any country which does not adhere to liberal democratic norms is a budding threat to the United States. The United States has never based its entire foreign policy on human rights, nor should it; that would be a recipe for endless intervention and conflict globally. And grounding policy on what might happen is an equally slippery slope.

The Communist Party views the United States as an adversary. But it has been willing to engage diplomatically, has repeatedly championed the inviolability of state borders and is not averse to self-interested compromise over issues like trade and climate change. Its rhetoric over Taiwan has been little more than saber-rattling and appears restrained compared to how the United States has historically treated Latin America.

Advocates of a new Cold War with China will surely roll their eyes at these assertions. They will say that China has wiggled out of trade commitments, repeatedly violated agreements on climate, used espionage to steal intellectual property, and is building a military designed to inflict harm on the United States and its allies.

But it is logical for an emerging great power like China to make plans for its defense, including potential conflict with the United States. Its also worth remembering that China is deeply intertwined with the U.S. and global economy. It holds more than a trillion dollars worth of American debt in the form of U.S. Treasury securities, benefits from the cumulative effect of U.S. investment in China and needs access to foreign markets. All of these realities shape its behavior just as much as the possibility of a future confrontation with the United States. Russia, by contrast, is constrained only by how far Mr. Putin is willing to go.

Rather than cast China as our next great enemy, American security would be better served by the realization that Russias behavior only highlights the ways that China and the United States remain bound to each other despite their tensions. We should nurture rather than endanger these ties, which are crucial for both countries to remain prosperous, stable and secure. We should also not allow our dislike of Chinas domestic system to be the basis of how we engage a country whose centrality to the global system is second only to ours.

Its rarely wise to take on two adversaries at once. Mr. Biden should find new ways to work with China, rather than trying to coerce it to be different. He should take bold steps to tone down the rhetoric, such as lifting Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijings reduced support for Putin. Otherwise, he will miss an opportunity to be a savvy, strategic president rather than one who fights with China at every turn.

Mr. Karabell is the founder of The Progress Network and the author of Inside Money: Brown Brothers Harriman and the American Way of Power. He is a former portfolio manager of the China-U. S. Growth Fund with Fred Alger Management.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.

See the article here:

Opinion | China Is Not the Biggest Threat to the World Order. Its Russia. - The New York Times

In the sparkling azure waters of Antigua, the gleaming 95m superyacht Alfa Nero could be seen at anchor last week by sightseers enjoying the Caribbean coastline. But few of the tourists who spotted its sleek black hull would have appreciated that it was quite a find.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the superyacht, which is linked to the Russian billionaire Andrey Guryev, has vanished off the global tracking maps used to locate marine traffic.

An investigation by the Observer this weekend reveals it is one of at least six superyachts linked to UK-sanctioned oligarchs which have gone dark on ocean tracking systems. The owners of these yachts will almost certainly realise they are at risk of being targeted in a global hunt for the assets of Russias super-rich.

At least 13 such vessels with a total value of nearly 2bn have already been impounded since the invasion of Ukraine, from southern France to Fiji. In the latter case, the superyacht Amadea, allegedly linked to the gold billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, was seized on behalf of the US.

Analysts report an increase in Russian-linked yachts which are turning off the automatic identification system (AIS) equipment used for tracking large vessels. The system can be turned off for legitimate reasons, but experts believe some vessels want to avoid detection.

An analysis by the Observer of AIS data compiled by the maritime and aviation market intelligence firm VesselsValue reveals other superyachts which have gone dark for more than a month include:

The 72-metre (238ft) superyacht Clio, linked to industrialist Oleg Deripaska, which sailed from the Indian Ocean to Turkey after the invasion. Its last transmitted location was on 18 April in the Black Sea, within range of the Russian ports of Sochi and Novorossiysk.

The 70-metre Galactica Super Nova, linked to the oligarch Vagit Alekperov, the sanctioned former president of Lukoil. The last transmitted location of the vessel was on 2 March off the Croatian coast.

The 140-metre Ocean Victory, linked to the sanctioned oligarch Viktor Rashnikov, which last transmitted its location at anchor in the Maldives on 1 March.

One member of crew on a superyacht linked to a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the UK told the Observer last week: We were told to turn off the AIS. We removed the screws on the power plug and pulled it out.

There are about 9,300 superyachts on the seas, worth more than 50bn, according to industry data. An estimated 10% of that fleet is owned by Russians.

One of the first superyachts to be impounded was the 86-metre Amore Vero, linked to the oil tycoon Igor Sechin, which was seized by customs officers at a shipyard at La Ciotat, near Marseille, on 2 March.

Italian authorities also impounded the 143-metre Sailing Yacht A on 12 March in Trieste. It is believed to be owned by the billionaire entrepreneur Andrey Melnichenko. He was sanctioned by the UK on 15 March.

Melnichenkos other superyacht, the futuristic 240m Motor Yacht A, has disappeared from global tracking system. Its last confirmed location was on 10 March in the Maldives.

The last recorded location of the Alfa Nero on AIS was in the Caribbean on 3 March, when it was anchored at Philipsburg in Sint Maarten. The yacht is operating on a skeleton crew and has put its tender, the Alfa Fish, into storage.

Guryev, 62, a Russian who made his fortune with the Russian fertiliser giant PhosAgro, is reported by maritime sources to be the owner of the vessel. He was revealed to have bought Londons largest private residence, the 25-bedroom mansion Witanhurst, for 50m in 2008.

He has regularly enjoyed sailing on the Alfa Nero. The vessel is also used by his family, including his son (also Andrey) and his sons wife, Valeria, who studied at the London College of Fashion and once reportedly stated on Instagram that she was too pretty for work. Like many yachts, it is owned via an opaque offshore structure, and Guryev has denied being the owner.

Other yachts which have not been tracked by AIS for more than a month include the Galactica Super Nova, which has a glass-bottomed swimming pool with a waterfall. It left Tivat in Montenegro on 2 March and promptly disappeared off the system.

The Clio, linked to Deripaska, sailed more than 3,000 miles after the invasion, from the Maldives, through the Suez Canal, across the Mediterranean and into the Bosphorus, gateway to the Black Sea and its Russian ports. In the Clios case, one reason it may have gone dark could be the perilous situation in the Black Sea arising from the war.

Other yachts which have not transmitted a confirmed location via AIS for at least a month include the My Sky, linked to the cigarette tycoon Igor Kesaev, which last reported its location in the Maldives on 30 March. The Maldives has no extradition treaty with the US, and at least five yachts linked to Russian owners have headed for its waters since the invasion. Other vessels, including two owned by Roman Abramovich, have headed to Turkey.

Under maritime rules, AIS should always be in operation when ships are under way or at anchor. All vessels of 300 gross tonnage and upwards must be fitted with it. A cruising vessel will typically transmit its location frequently, but it can turn the system off when in port. The data is relayed by radio receivers and satellites.

Sam Tucker at VesselsValue said: There are some vessels where we would be previously getting a signal every few minutes from transponders and we are now seeing gaps of months. Its very likely that some have flicked off the switch and gone into stealth mode.

None of the sanctioned oligarchs linked to the six superyachts suspected of turning off their AIS responded to a request for comment.

View post:

Revealed: Russia-linked superyachts going dark to avoid sanctions threat - The Guardian