Daily Archives: May 3, 2022

WASHINGTON U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the war in Ukraine has worsened problems in the Western Hemisphere caused by the coronavirus pandemic, such as rising poverty.

Concerns about the war decreasing the availability of food and increasing prices have sparked fears of increasing hunger and starvation in other nations. Blinken told the annual Conference of the Americas Luncheon on Tuesday that the effects of the war are being felt after the pandemic inflicted massive economic harm throughout the region.

Giving the luncheons keynote address in Washington, Blinken said: Now, with the Russian governments brutal war of aggression on Ukraine, many of these preexisting problems, these preexisting conditions, have been made worse, raising the price of essential commodities throughout the Americas, from fertilizer to wheat to petroleum, cutting off key export markets for many industries in the Americas, and forcing households across the region to make very wrenching choices as the cost of living skyrockets.

Blinken plans to chair two United Nations meetings later this month aimed at spotlighting how the war in Ukraine and other conflicts is affecting the availability of food and prices.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR:

Aid workers prepare to receive civilians evacuating from Mariupol steel plant

Push to arm Ukraine putting strain on US weapons stockpile

Pope Francis offers to meet Putin, but hasnt heard back

Follow all AP stories on Russias war on Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

UNITED NATIONS -- The United States says it will spotlight the impact of the war in Ukraine and other conflicts on the diminishing availability of food and rising prices at two U.N. events later this month.

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told a news conference Tuesday that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will chair a ministerial meeting on food insecurity across the globe on May 18 to review current and future humanitarian needs.

The United States holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council this month and on May 19, Blinken will chair a meeting where its 15 members will consider how to make sure that food insecurity does not drive new conflicts, instability, particularly in fragile states, she said.

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KYIV, Ukraine Ukrainian officials say the Russian military has struck railroad infrastructure across the country.

Oleksandr Kamyshin, the head of the Ukrainian railways, said the Russian strikes on Tuesday hit six railway stations in the countrys central and western regions, inflicting heavy damage.

Kamyshin said at least 14 trains were delayed because of the attacks.

Dnipro region Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko said Russian missiles struck railway infrastructure in the area, leaving one person wounded and disrupting train movement.

The Ukrainian military also reported strikes on railways in the Kirovohrad region, saying there were unspecified casualties.

Ukraines railroads have played an important role in moving people, goods and military supplies during the war as roads and bridges have been damaged.

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TROY, Ala. President Joe Biden on Tuesday credited the assembly line workers at a Javelin missile plant for doing life-saving work in building the antitank weapons that are being sent to Ukraine to stifle Russias invasion as he made a pitch for Congress to approve $33 billion so the U.S. can continue hustle aid to the front lines.

Youre allowing the Ukrainians to defend themselves, Biden told the workers, his podium flanked by Javelin missile launchers and shipping containers. And, quite frankly, theyre making fools of the Russian military in many instances.

The presidents visit to the Lockheed Martin factory in Alabama also drew attention to a growing concern as the war drags on: Can the U.S. sustain the cadence in shipping vast amounts of arms to Ukraine while maintaining a healthy stockpile it may need if conflict erupts with North Korea, Iran or elsewhere?

The U.S. has provided at least 7,000 Javelins, including some transferred during the Trump administration, or about one-third of its stockpile, to Ukraine in recent years, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies international security program. The Biden administration says it has committed to sending 5,500 Javelins to Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion.

Analysts also estimate that the United States has sent about one-quarter of its stockpile of shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investors last week during a quarterly call that his company, which makes the weapons system, wouldnt be able to ramp up production until next year, due to parts shortages.

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UNITED NATIONS The U.N. humanitarian chief in Ukraine says about 30 people who came out of the besieged Avostal steel plant in Mariupol chose not to leave the city, saying they were horrified at its total devastation and first wanted to find out if their loved ones were still alive.

Osnat Lubrani told a virtual press conference from the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia soon after the arrival Tuesday of 127 people evacuated from the plant and the town of Manhush on Mariupols outskirts that she wants to believe the successful operation will be a stepping stone to more such operations from Avostal and other towns and cities being shelled and bombarded by the Russians.

She said there is knowledge that there are civilians still trapped in the Avostal plant, but the U.N. has no numbers.

Some of them may have been afraid to come out, some of them probably couldnt make it, Lubrani said. Its a huge area and some of the elderly people could hardly walk and a broken bus with flat tires was used to help some of them leave.

Speaking of the people who wanted to stay in Mariupol, she said, These are people that have lived their lives and worked in Mariupol and so it was difficult for them to just leave without knowing what the fate of their loved ones is.

Lubrani said the people still trapped underground in the Avostal plant will hear about the safe evacuation to Zaporizhzhia which is very important, so if we do another operation, I think hopefully more will come out.

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The Russian military says its artillery has hit over 400 Ukrainian targets during the last day.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Tuesday that the targets included Ukrainian artillery positions, troops strongholds and two fuel depots.

Konashenkov said Russian aircrafts have hit 39 other targets, including concentrations of troops and weapons and two command posts.

He charged that a U.S.-supplied artillery radar, four air defense radars and six ammunition depots were among the targets destroyed with precision-guided weapons over the last day.

Konashenkovs claims couldnt be independently verified.

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LVIV, Ukraine Russian strikes have apparently targeted the western Ukraine city of Lviv.

The strikes happened in multiple directions just before 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday about about an hour and a half after air raid sirens sounded in the city and reportedly went off across the entire country. At least four distinct explosions could be heard from downtown Lviv.

Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said the strikes damaged three power substations, knocking electricity off in parts of Lviv. Two pump stations were also without power, affecting water supply in the city. Two people were injured in the attack, according to the mayor.

Sadovyi wrote on a social message app that those in the city should take shelter. Trains coming out of Lviv stopped service. Car alarms went off after the blasts, and emergency sirens could be heard.

The mayor on Monday had a news conference with the countrys top U.S. diplomat, discussing how America planned to reopen its diplomatic presence in the city located near the Polish border.

The last major attack targeting the city came April 18, which killed at least seven people. Lviv has become a haven for those fleeing the wars front line in the east.

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PARIS French President Emmanuel Macron, in a phone call Tuesday with Vladimir Putin, stressed the extreme gravity of the consequences of Russias war of aggression in Ukraine, and called on the Russian leader to allow evacuations from the Mariupol steel mill to continue, the Elysee Palace said.

Macron urged Russia to rise to the level of its responsibility as a permanent member of the U.S. Security Council by ending this devastating aggression, an Elysee statement said.

Macron asked Putin to restart evacuations at the Azovstal plant, which has served as a refuge for Ukrainians, in coordination with humanitarian units, while allowing evacuees to choose their destination, as called for under international law.

It was the first time that the French president has had a conversation with Putin since March 29 before the discovery of the exactions in the Ukrainian town of Bucha after multiple telephone talks. The call came three days after Macron last spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Concerned about world food security, Macron said he was willing to work with international organizations to try to help seek a lifting of the Russian blockade on exports of food goods via the Black Sea, according to the statement.

He also restated his willingness to work on conditions for a negotiated solution to the war, for peace and for full respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and reiterated his oft-stated demand for a cease-fire, the statement said.

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KYIV, Ukraine The Donetsk regional governor said the Russian troops on Tuesday shelled a chemical plant in Avdiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 10 people and wounding 15 more.

The Russians knew exactly where to aim the workers just finished their shift and were waiting for a bus at a bus stop to take them home, Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote in a Telegram post. Another cynical crime by Russians on our land.

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GENEVA A top Red Cross official helping oversee a dramatic, five-day effort that led to the evacuation of dozens of civilians from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to a government-held city said he remains extremely concerned about new clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces there with some other civilians still inside.

Pascal Hundt, who heads the Ukraine office of the International Committee of the Red Cross, said the humanitarian agency and the United Nations carried out the evacuation after Russia and Ukraine agreed that it would only include civilians. He said some people simply chose not to leave, and he didnt know why but suspected fear about continued fighting played a part.

A total of 127 people were evacuated from Azovstal and the Mariupol area in buses that arrived in government-controlled Zaporizhzia on Tuesday.

We are today with a mixed feeling. We have done everything to help these people to basically leave the place where they were to leave hell, Hundt said in a call with reporters from Kyiv. But we would have hoped that much more people would be able to join the convoy and to get out of hell.

Hundt said about a dozen people taken out in the convoy were sick or injured, but none were in critical condition.

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COPENHAGEN, Denmark Latvia has summoned Russias ambassador to the Baltic country over Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovs anti-Semitic statements, the Latvian foreign minister said Tuesday.

The ambassador was to provide explanations on May 5 and receive a protest, Edgars Rinkevics wrote on Twitter.

In an interview with an Italian news channel, Lavrov said that Ukraine could still have Nazi elements even if some figures including the countrys president were Jewish, claiming that Hitler also had Jewish origins.

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BRUSSELS The European Unions top diplomat says the blocs executive branch is on the cusp of proposing a new raft of sanctions against Russia, including on oil.

EU policy commissioners have been discussing the new sanctions and are set to send their proposals later Tuesday to the 27 member countries for debate.

The unions foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a tweet that the executive is working on the 6th package of sanctions which aims to de-swift more banks, list disinformation actors and tackle oil imports. Swift is the most widely used international system for bank transfers.

Member countries have been involved in drawing up the proposals, but they routinely take days to endorse them. The sanctions can only enter force once they are published in the EUs Official Journal. Hungary and Slovakia have already expressed reservations about signing on.

EU ambassadors are scheduled to meet on Wednesday. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also likely to explain the proposals early Wednesday at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

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MOSCOW Russian President Vladimir Putin has told French President Emmanuel Macron that Moscow is ready for talks with Ukraine.

The Kremlin said in its readout of Tuesdays call that despite Kyivs inconsistency and its lack of readiness for serious work, the Russian side is still ready for dialogue.

The Kremlin added that Putin also informed Macron about the course of Russias special military operation. It added that the two leaders also discussed the global food security and Putin underlined that Western sanctions have exacerbated the situation.

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ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine The U.N.s aid coordinator for Ukraine says 127 people have been evacuated from the besieged Azovstal plant in Mariupol and nearby areas to a government-controlled city, in an operation carried out along with the international Red Cross.

Osnat Lubrani, the humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine, said Tuesday that those evacuated included 101 people who could finally leave the bunkers below the Azovstal steelworks and see the daylight after two months.

Another 58 people joined the convoy in Manhush, a town on the outskirts of Mariupol.

Today, we brought people safely to Zaporizhzhia, Lubriani said. However, I worry that there may be more civilians who remain trapped.

The evacuees were receiving humanitarian assistance, including health and psychological care, from the U.N, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and partner agencies after arriving in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday.

Some of the evacuees opted to be dropped off before arriving in the city, which is in government-controlled territory, Lubriani said in a statement.

This item has been corrected to fix the spelling of Osnat Lubranis last name.

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KYIV, Ukraine The deputy commander of the Azov Regiment that is holed up in the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol has confirmed to The Associated Press that Russian forces have started to storm the plant on Tuesday.

The move comes almost two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered its military not to storm the plant, but rather block it off.

Asked about the reports in Ukrainian media that the huge steelworks the last holdout of Ukrainian resistance in a city otherwise controlled by Moscows forces was being stormed, Sviatoslav Palamar told the AP that it is true.

Earlier on Tuesday, Mariupol patrol police chief Mykhailo Vershinin was quoted by Ukrainian television as saying that the Russian military have started to storm the plant in several places.

The reports come amid a U.N. effort to evacuate civilians from the plant, which helped scores of people escape the sprawling facility.

According to Denys Shlega, commander of the 12th Operational Brigade of Ukraines National Guard who is also currently at Azovstal, 200 civilians including children remain at the plant.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk told reporters Tuesday that about 150 civilians have been taken from Azovstal and a few hundred remain at the plant. We need a few more days to continue this operation, Vereshchuk said.

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COPENHAGEN, Denmark Denmarks Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has urged her visiting Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, to try to influence Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Putin has to stop this war, Frederiksen said Tuesday, adding immediately, I hope that India will influence Russia.

Indias neutral stance in the war has raised concerns in the West and earned praise from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who lauded India for judging the situation in its entirety, not just in a one-sided way.

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LONDON British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told Ukraines parliament that their country has achieved the greatest feat of arms of the 21st century by repelling Russias attempt to capture Kyiv.

Continued here:

Live updates | Macron asks Putin to allow mill evacuations - The Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putins bizarre meeting with his defense minister on April 21 provided a smorgasbord of material for intelligence analysts trying to determine what is going on in his head. Rather than the massive 40-foot table that has separated Putin from his yes-men since the start of his war,we saw the Russian despotsitting at a diminutive table, practically knee-to-knee with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Putin has carefully cultivated an image as the macho man-in-charge. But the figure with hunched shoulders, tightly clutching the little table in his right hand, gave off a rather deflated, contrite appearance. He used this strange setting to make the odd announcement that his forces had won the battle for Mariupol and would discontinue their vicious assault against the Azovstal steel plant in the devastated city.

It may be that his new general,Aleksandr Dvornikov, famously known as the Butcher of Syria, had convinced Putin that his dogged efforts to eradicate the small force of intrepid defenders was a waste of resources. It would be better to declare victory and use it as an overture toward a negotiated settlement to consolidate his gains to date.

It seemed that Putin was experiencing a moment of doubt about his strategy of continuous escalation. Just as he met with Shoigu, a story broke that a Russian billionaire hadcalled the war insaneand pleaded with the West to provide Putin an off-ramp. The billionaires plea could well have been instigated by Putin.

Regardless of what caused Putin to call a halt to the consignment of conscript cannon fodder to senseless deaths at the steel plant, he soon changed his mind. After the foreign press ridiculed Putins claim of victory in Mariupol, he immediately returned to his macho form and resumed the wasteful assaults on the steel plant defenders.

It appears the Russian despot has concluded that the only way he can survive politically is to go for broke to continue escalation until hes able to achieve military success. The problem is that the Ukrainians have gotten every break since the table talk with Shoigu.

Putins favored French presidential candidate,Marine Le Pen, lost her election bid against French President Emmanuel Macron on April 24. The same day, another Putin friend,Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jassa, lost his bid for reelection. The very next day,Sweden and Finland agreedto submit simultaneous applications for NATO membership. The alliance against Putins Russia is growing larger and stronger.

The Wests economic sanctions are biting deeper into Russias war effort, reportedlyimpacting the weapon supply chain. Funds to finance the war have diminished and will likely suffer additional impacts because Germany has concluded that afull embargo on Russian oil is manageable. European Union (EU) countries are fashioning apotentially-crippling oil embargothat could be approved during the first week of May.

On April 26, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told representatives of 40 nations gathered to support Ukraine thatthe embattled country can winits war with Russia. In context with Austins statement that the U.S. seeks toweaken Russias military, this appears to be closer to a commitment than a mere prediction. President Biden followed up with a request for anadditional $33 billion in aidfor the Ukrainians. Having served as a heavy artillery officer in Vietnam, I can attest that theartillery slated for Ukrainian forcescan be a game changer, provided it can get to the battlefields in time.

This cascade of adverse developments, pluschronic logistics and command problemsandmysterious fires at weapons and fuel facilitiesin Russia, would be enough to drive an average psychopath to distraction. Add to that the fact thathis oligarchs are getting restlessabout the future of their fortunes, as well as the dire situation of their country.

To make matters worse,many Kremlin insiders reportedly have serious concernsabout Putins war and the long-term damage it is inflicting upon the Russian Federation.Putin is certainly aware of the unrest in his inner circle. He knows thatugly things can happen to a leaderwho appears to be running the country off the rails, threatening the personal interests of powerful insiders.Some reportshave surfaced that Putin replaced around 1,000 Kremlin staff out of concern for his personal safety.

The Russian dictator is on the horns of a serious dilemma either bow to the gathering strength of the coalition against him and settle for negligible gains, or stay on the path of continuing escalation, hoping to pull off a stunning battlefield victory. Since a decisive victory is a rather remote possibility, Putins last desperate escalatory step may be to resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Putin may soon be coming to the end of his rope. If he cant figure a way out of the mess he created with his ego-driven war, it may be up to his old KGB cohorts to find a solution. It is quite possible that some among them will not allow him to take their country down with him.

JimJonesis a Vietnam combat veteran who served eight years as Idaho attorney general (1983-1991) and 12 years as a justice on the Idaho Supreme Court (2005-2017). He is a regular contributor to The Hill.

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Vladimir Putin is on the horns of a life-or-death dilemma - The Hill

Missile barrage on Ukraines capital while UN chief visited shows Russias leader has no intention to bow to international pressure, analysts say.

Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Friday a missile attack on his city Kyiv was Russian President Vladimir Putins way of giving his middle finger to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the West over the war in Ukraine.

The targeting of the capital on Thursday killed at least one person and wounded 10 others, and was the first on Kyiv since Russia refocused its efforts on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Guterres and his team were not hurt.

The attacks were the boldest Russian attack on the capital since Moscows forces retreated weeks ago following their failure to take the city. Russia is now pushing into the Donbas, the countrys eastern industrial region, which the Kremlin has said is its main objective.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst and head of the Kyiv-based Penta Center think-tank, said the missile attacks carried a message: Russia is sending a clear signal about its intention to continue the war despite the international pressure.

He said Putin will continue to attack targets throughout Ukraine.

With this missile strike, the Kremlin is sending a warning to all international structures and organisations trying to influence or contain Russias aggressive military plans, Fesenko said. While Russia has so far failed to score any significant gains in Ukraine, it intends to continue its offensive and keep striking cities with missiles.

In an apparent reference to the attack on Kyiv, Russias military said it destroyed production buildings at the Artem defence factory in a high precision missile attack.

The bombardment came barely an hour after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a news conference with Guterres, who toured some of the destruction in and around Kyiv and condemned attacks on civilians.

This says a lot about Russias true attitude toward global institutions, about attempts of the Russian leadership to humiliate the UN and everything the organisation represents, Zelenskyy said.

Asked about the Ukraine presidents comments, deputy spokesman for the UN chief, Farhan Haq, said Guterres took Russias assault really as a sign not of disrespect for him but for the people of Kyiv.

Antonio Guterres doesnt see this attack as about him. He sees this as another sign that there are parties who are wanting to continue this war, and we want to keep our push to make sure that the conflict can be ended, Haq said.

In the wake of Thursdays missile attack in Kyiv, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said the body of Vira Hyrych, a journalist who lived in one of the buildings, was found in the rubble. Ten people were wounded, at least one who lost a leg, according to emergency officials.

Radio Free Europe President Jamie Fly said the organisation was shocked and angered by the senseless nature of her death at home in a country and city she loved.

Germany said the inhumane attack showed Putin has no respect whatsoever for international law.

Kyiv had been relatively unscathed in recent weeks, and cafs and other businesses started to reopen. But Thursdays attack shattered weeks of relative calm in the capital.

Russia has faced harsh criticism for its heavy bombing that has struck civilian areas, but also for accusations its soldiers on the ground have killed or harmed civilians. Moscow insists it is doing all it can to protect non-combatants.

Thursdays blasts shattered windows and cracked walls for hundreds of metres in every direction, and significantly damaged a local health clinic.

I think the Russians arent afraid of anything, not even the worlds judgement, said Anna Hromovych, deputy director of the clinic, as she and others cleaned up the damage on Friday.

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Putins middle finger to the UN sends clear message to the West - Al Jazeera English

The striking similarities between Vladimir Putins Russia and Adolf Hitlers Germany are not accidental. Both regimes had the past tense is intentional the same historical trajectory because both were the product of imperial collapse and its destabilizing aftermath on the one hand and the emergence of a strong leader promising to make the country great again on the other.

In contrast to most empires, which decay and progressively lose their colonial possessions over time, both Wilhelmine Germany and Czarist Russia collapsed swiftly and completely at the height of their power in 1917-1918. Decay inures imperial elites to the loss of colonies, enables them to formulate different ideologies centered on the nation state, and reduces the number of institutional and economic ties between the imperial core and its colonies. The Ottoman Empire is an excellent example of the decay dynamic. Turkeys founding father, Mustafa Kemal Atatrk, fought the Greeks but was perfectly satisfied with the Turkish state.

Empires that collapse usually as a result of a war or some other severe crisis experience a sudden severing of political ties between the imperial metropolis and the colonies, but the imperial mindset remains dominant in the metropolis and the economic and institutional connections between core and periphery remain strong.

Almost inevitably, the post-collapse economies, societies and cultures of the metropolis experienced enormous disarray as in Germany in the 1920s and Russia in the 1990s. The blame for this sad state fell on the democratic elites who came to power after the authoritarian empire ended. Once democracy was discredited, strong men appeared Hitler and Putin promising to return their countries to their rightful place in the sun and establishing cults of personality. The Nazis argued that Germany should have one people, one empire, and one Fhrer; the Putinists claimed that Putin embodied the state. Nazi propaganda emphasized Hitlers genius and benevolence; Putinist propaganda focused on Putins virility and ability to outwit the world.

In such circumstances, the former metropolis had every incentive to rebuild the old empire. Imperial revival was popular, enhanced elite legitimacy, promised to revive the economy and extirpate humiliating memories of collapse, and seemed to guarantee great-power status. Central to their attempts at re-imperialization was the false claim that their ethnic brethren in the newly independent colonies were being oppressed: the Germans in Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland; the Russians in all the post-Soviet states, and especially Ukraine.

Tentative stabs at expansion followed. Hitler grabbed the Rhineland, Austria, and the Sudetenland. Putin grabbed Chechnya, parts of Georgia, and parts of Ukraine. Given their imperial mindsets, militaristic ambitions, personality cults and demonization of minorities (Jews and Ukrainians), it was almost inevitable that Hitler and Putin then embarked on major wars. In 1939, Hitler attacked Poland; in 1941, he attacked the USSR. Putins war with Ukraine began on Feb. 24, 2022.

As often happens with leaders who believe their own propaganda, both Hitler and Putin committed strategic mistakes that resulted in their downfall. The Bolsheviks were able to reestablish most of the czarist empire because their militaries and economies were stronger than those of the former colonies, while the powerful countries of the West were distracted by the war.

Hitlers and Putins fatal error was not to have heeded the Bolshevik example and, instead, to have antagonized a whole array of states with more hard power than they had. Expansion was one thing: Europe and the United States ignored or downplayed it. A major land war threatened the stability and survival of Eurasia and could not go unheeded.

Hitlers generals knew they had lost when they failed to win the Battle of Britain and the United States entered the war. It took millions of dead and the Holocaust before Germany was finally defeated and Hitler committed suicide in his bunker.

Putins generals also appear to have known they would not win after their attempt at a blitzkrieg failed to capture Kyiv. It has taken thousands of dead and Russias genocide of Ukrainians to align scores of countries and, in particular, the United States and the United Kingdom with Ukraine and to provide it with the heavy weaponry it needs to defeat Russia.

Fittingly, Putin reportedly also resides in a bunker. In all likelihood, thats where he, too, will meet his end.

The death and destruction will have been as enormous as they will have been unnecessary. But, as after World War II, the West again will have the opportunity to create a security architecture that provides for Russias de-Putinization and a durable peace.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires and Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.

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Putins Russia rose like Hitlers Germany and could end the same - The Hill

Moscow owes millions on two sovereign bonds, which are due to mature in 2022 and 2042. However, Russia initially attempted to pay the bond due on April 4 with roubles, rather than in US dollars as the contract of the bond specifies.

On Friday, Russias Finance Ministry said that it had attempted the dollar payments for its payments.

The ministry said it had made a payment of $564.8 million (450M) on a 2022 eurobond and a payment of $84.4 million (67M) on a 2042 eurobond, according to Reuters.

The funds have reportedly been channeled to the London branch of Citibank, however it is unclear whether they will reach their intended recipients.

The payments were due to be made in April and had entered a 30-day grace period before official default on May 4.

According to Bloomberg, the US Treasury is said to have approved the near-$650 million (518M) in coupon and principal payments, as part of its strategy to force Russia to erode domestic reserves.

The outlet added investors have reportedly began to receive overdue payments on the two bonds, indicating Russia had successfully avoid a debt default.

Major ratings agencies suggested a failure to pay in dollars would constitute a first foreign debt default since 1917.

Russia also appeared to avoid a historic default in March, where it fulfilled interest payments worth $117 million (93M) on two dollar-denominated sovereign eurobonds.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said at the time any default would have been purely artificial because Russia had the funds necessary to fulfil its external debt obligations, but would be prevented from doing so by Western sanctions.

Moscows central bank had large amounts of money stored in assets from other countries, according to data from the Bank of Russia.

However, after sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been unable to access its foreign assets.

Since the start of the Ukraine war, $284 billion (226M) in foreign assets have been frozen, making up $585 billion (466M) of Russias stockpile according to the bank of Russia as of June 2021.

Russias foreign assets in the UK total a value around $26 billion (20M), while France holds the largest amount of frozen assets at $71 billion (56M).

US sanctions on Russia currently include a broad exemption for sovereign bond payments.

However, the exemption runs out on May 25 and the Treasurys Office of Foreign Assets Control hasnt said if it will be extended.

Richard Briggs, a money manager at GAM, told Bloomberg: May 25th is the next hurdle.

Unless OFAC extends that authorisation, they wont be able to continue to make payments.

The decision will come down to whether Washington deems it better to allow Russia to make payments and tap into its dollar cash pile kept at home, or whether the optics of forcing a default is preferable, Mr Briggs said.

It comes after Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina slashed the country's interest rates by three percentage points for the second time in less than a month.

She said: Supply is contracting more significantly than demand, which is intensifying inflationary pressure.

According to the World Bank, Russian gross domestic product is expected to nosedive by a minimum of 8 percent this year, and could even shrink by as much as 10 percent, the most since 1994.

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Putin's humiliating U-turn as he dips into precious reserve in bid to prevent collapse - Express

Since Russias war on Ukraine began, press reports have focused on the exodus from Russia of antiwar scientists, engineers and information technology experts. But the vast majority of the Russian people are staying put and rallying behind President Vladimir Putin.

According to Levada, Russias most respected independent pollster, the share of all Russians who said they would like to relocate outside Russia fell in late March to 10 percent, from an average of 19 percent in three earlier polls since 2019.

Even among people with higher education, the percentage who would like to relocate was the same, 10 percent, according to a spreadsheet that Levada sent me. (Some people may have been afraid to tell the pollsters of their dissatisfaction, given Putins crackdown on dissent, but Im betting the numbers are directionally right.)

Why does this matter? Because Putin may be betting that as long as a strong majority of Russians support him, he can afford to lose the malcontents. He may even be glad that some are going. The autocrat is not erecting barriers to keep the intelligentsia from leaving, although he has offered tax breaks, subsidized mortgages and postponement of conscription into the armed forces to keep tech workers at home.

He may live to regret his nonchalance. There is no doubt that there is long-lasting damage. The whole wave of recent emigration is the most productive slice of the Russian society, said Konstantin Sonin, an economist with the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy who moved from Russia.

Putin has a very specific worldview that opposes globalization, Sonin told me. Putin believes that an autarkic, centralized economy is sort of a strong economy. When Russia is cut from the international trade, when people are leaving, it seems to him that this is going in the right direction, the acceptable direction.

If Russia achieves political stability by ridding itself of smart people who oppose Putins rule, Sonin said, the stability will be achieved at a very low level of production and consumption.

Russia has suffered from brain drain for at least a century, in part because it produces top-notch university graduates but usually hasnt had an economy capable of putting their skills to good use. The United States and other countries have long benefited from immigrants from what was the Russian Empire, including some from what are now independent nations. In the United States that includes such giants as Igor Sikorsky, a pioneer in helicopters; Simon Kuznets, a Nobel laureate in economics; composers and authors such as Irving Berlin, Sergei Rachmaninoff and Vladimir Nabokov; and businesspeople such as the Wonskolaser brothers, better known by their Americanized name, the Warner brothers.

Around 2010 the brain drain started to ease because the Russian economy was performing well. Some Russians even went home. But the invasion of Ukraine has once again yanked the plug out of the drain hole. Most of the exiles today are going to nearby countries, including Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and the Baltic nations.

The United States has been tougher to get into because visas are scarce. In March the Department of Homeland Security granted Ukrainians temporary protected status for 18 months, enabling them to stay and work in the United States without a visa but it has not done so for Russians.

In a shift, however, the Biden administration asked Congress last week to suspend for four years the requirement that Russian scientists applying for H1-B visas have a sponsoring employer. The measure would apply only to Russian citizens with masters or doctoral degrees in science or engineering fields such as artificial intelligence, nuclear engineering and quantum physics. They would have to undergo security vetting.

Thats a smart move. Western nations are making a mistake if they dont hold the door open to Russian scientists because of opposition to Putin, said Alexandra Vacroux, who is executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. If theyre leaving, theyre the best and the brightest and the bravest, she said. Its important not to brand all the Russians as the baddies in the world.

Mara Kuvaldina, a Russian with a doctorate in experimental cognitive psychology who works at Columbia University Medical Center, has protested against Putin and said she fears going home to St. Petersburg to visit her mother. She participates in a network of scholars in the cognitive sciences who help fellow academics fleeing Russia, Ukraine and Belarus find jobs in the West.

One goal is to help the scholars integrate into a new social environment abroad and give them opportunity to get back to normal life, Kuvaldina wrote in an email.

John Holdren, who was Barack Obamas science adviser for all eight years of his presidency, told me he worked with the State Department to reduce obstacles on our side to people with very valuable skills from many countries. He said some of those efforts were rolled back by the Trump administration. Its an important part of U.S. science policy to be welcoming, Holdren said.

For Putin to drive away some of his nations greatest minds is lunatic. But as someone once said, never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake.

2.1 percent

This decrease is the median estimate of the change in industrial production in Brazil in the 12 months through March, according to a survey of forecasters by FactSet. The median forecast for economic growth for all of 2022 is 0.7 percent. Strengthening growth is a high priority for President Jair Bolsonaro, who is being challenged for re-election by the former president Luiz Incio Lula da Silva. The official industrial production number is set to be released by the government on Tuesday.

I see the world through equilibrium glasses; I dont think they fail me very often.

Fischer Black, Exploring General Equilibrium (1995)

Have feedback? Send me a note at coy-newsletter@nytimes.com.

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Opinion | Putins Failure to Hold on to the Educated Could Be the Worlds Gain - The New York Times

Ukrainian troops on the frontline of Russia's war don't pretend to know what's going through the minds of "the enemy", but if theyhad to guess, they thinkthe invaders'hearts aren't in it.

"The Russians don't seem to care," one of them told the ABC.

Dimas, a Ukraine soldier taking the ABC to the frontline near Shevchenko,in the Donetsk region, says the Russians might have "thought they'd be welcomed here".

"Butnobody wants them," he adds.

The Ukrainiansoldiers on the frontline, however, have everything to fight for.

The nearby city of Zaporizhzhia is preparing for thatfrontline to soon reach its doorstop.

Residents are determinedto keep the cityunder Ukrainian control and out of Russia's hands.

One soldier, Doc, said the battle was "personal" for him. His wife and family live in the area.

"I've got a family and a home to protect," he said.

Soldiers are also fighting to protect loved ones in other areas of south-east Ukraine.

After Russian troops started their encirclement of Mariupol in early March, many residents were left with few means to escape.

Vorchun, who joined the army just days before Russia invaded Ukraine, said his family was still living near the city.

"They wanted to know who would be prepared to protect the motherland, so I volunteered," he said,as the sounds of Russian artillery grew louder in the distance.

"They are trying to force us out of here. We won't let them"

Since withdrawing from areas surrounding Kyiv, Russian forces have redoubled their efforts to encircle the Donbas region and secure a land corridor to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

"They've rotated all their troops here, so it's become quite hot," Dimas said.

InShevchenko, a fierce battle is raging. On the other side of the village'slush green fields, large clouds of smokegather abovethe horizon, caused by heavy shelling.

Snaking through the fields are defensive trenches dug by the Ukrainians, in case they get pushed back.

What their Russian opponents may lack in motivation, they're making up for in firepower, Dimas said.

"The Ukrainian army might fire five or 10 shells, and Russia will fire 50 to 100 in return," he said.

"They have much more weaponry, artillery, tanks, soldiers on foot.

"But we protect our military assets. The Russians don't protect theirs and they're suffering heavy losses."

While the extent of Russia's losses remains unclear, the UK's Defence Ministry estimates up to one quarter of Vladimir Putin's battle groups sent to Ukraine have been rendered "combat ineffective".

Ukraine has taken territory back from Russia on the frontline near Shevchenko, but the gains and losses can change day by day, hour by hour.

The ABC saw Ukrainian artillery pulling back as the Russian shelling appeared to be getting closer.

A short time later, there was a deafening roar of a warplane flying low over the trees, firing flares to prevent a potential missile from locking on.

The Ukrainians said it belonged to them, but their opponents were clearly applying pressure.

"Everyday they want to capture a village, to contain and push them back,"Dimas said.

"But the front line is not constant."

Near the village of Shevchenko were numerous reminders of the Russian attack, which has since been repelled.

On the side of one roadwas a heap of twisted metal in the rough shape of a sedan. It appeared to have been crushed by a tank.

Nearby, an enormous crater had been carved into the ground. The military told us it was caused by a Russian Iskander missile.

Houses in the village were badly damaged by shelling and almost all the residents were gone.

An eeriesilence hung over the village, sometimes broken by the sound of guns in the distance.

Yet, 14-year-oldLeshasaid he wasn't afraid to live in the village, despite the near-constant explosions over the horizon.

"It's normal," he said.

"This is just how it is now."

Driving away from the frontline, the ABC met a resident from a neighbouring village, Olga, who was living with her family in a petrol station after fleeing her home.

She said the Russian assault became intolerable.

"We were waiting until the last minute to leave," she said.

"There was [so much] shelling. We couldn't handle it any longer."

Her one-year-old son, Yuriy, was frightened of the loud noises, she said.

"We're hoping we can wait here for a while before heading back home."

Nobody can say when that will be, or who will be in control.

Read more from the original source:

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is 'personal' for soldiers protecting their families in the Donetsk region - ABC News