Daily Archives: April 27, 2022

Zelenskyy's powerful Orthodox Easter message to the world

Ukrainians marked Orthodox Easter in the capital, Kyiv with prayers for those fighting on the front lines, as President Zelenskyy spoke to the world.

Patrick Colson-Price, USA TODAY

Editor's note: This page recaps the news from Ukraine on Tuesday, April 26.Follow here for the latest updates and news from Wednesday, April 27, as Russia's invasion continues.

A meeting ofdefense officials from more than three dozen nations Tuesday helpedunify the West's efforts to aidUkraine win today and build strength for tomorrow," U.S. Defense SecretaryLloyd Austin said.

"Countries all around the world have been stepping up to meet Ukraine's urgent needs," Austin said following the meeting at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany, during which the U.S. urged for more weapons for Ukraine. We've got to move at the speed of war."

Austin said Germany, which had balked at providing heavy weaponry to Ukraine, has agreed to send 50 anti-aircraft weapons to the embattled nation now in its third month of a grueling war against Russia's invading forces. On Monday, Austin said Ukraine can win the war if it has the right equipment.

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He said meetings similar to the one Tuesday will be held once a month, either virtually or in person.Before the meeting, Austin had promised to "keep moving heaven and earth" to support Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies have committed more than$5 billion worth of equipment to Ukraine's defense, he said.

"Russia's invasion is indefensible," Austin said. "So are Russian atrocities."

USA TODAY ON TELEGRAM: Join our Russia-Ukraine war channel to receive updates straight to your phone

Latest developments:

The United Nations said Secretary-General Antnio Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle at a Tuesday meeting that the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross should be involved in the evacuation of civilians from a besieged steel plant in Ukraines port city of Mariupol.

Officials in Poland and Bulgaria, both members of NATO and the EU, said Tuesday that Russia is suspending their countries natural gas deliveries after they refused to pay for their suppliesin rubles.

Russia's state communications watchdog has banned Chess.com, one of the world's largest online chess and social networking platforms, according to the chess site, in an effort to block two articles on its site supporting Ukraine.

Germanys Economy Minister Robert Habeck said his country has reduced the share of its oil supply importedfrom Russia from 35% before the war to about 12%, makingan embargo on deliveries "manageable.'' However,Berlin has said it will need longer to do without gas supplies from Russia.

The European Union intends to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas by two-thirds by year's end and tozero by 2028, European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni told theMessaggero daily.

Mariupol is drawing global notice, butlocal officials said at least nine people were killed and several more wounded by Russian attacks elsewhere in eastern and southern Ukraine. Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region, said Russian forces continue to deliberately fire at civilians and to destroy critical infrastructure.

A newly released poll by Gallup showed that 78% of Americans support the U.S. allowing up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees into the country, the amount that President Joe Biden has promised the U.S. will accept.

The level of support is the highest that Gallup has ever found in a survey about various refugee situations, dating back to 1939. Support was bipartisan 92% of Democrats, 79% of independents and 61% of Republicans and large majorities across all demographic groups were in agreement.

Before 2022, the highest level of support for refugees entering the U.S. was forallowing "several hundred ethnic Albanian refugees from Kosovo" in 1999, when 66% approved. The only other time a majority of Americans were in favor of the proposed refugees entering the U.S. was in 2018 when 51% supported "several thousand" entering from Honduras and other central American countries.

In 1946, by contrast only 16% approved of allowing "more Jewish and other European refugees than allowed by law."

The poll was conducted April 1-19 and included 1,018 American adults. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., on Tuesdayseemed to suggest the reason Russia targeted Ukraine and other countries is because they were part of Russia, a remark that sparked criticism he was touting Russian President Vladimir Putins talking points.

While there's no justification for Putins war on Ukraine, it does not follow that there's no explanation for the invasion, Paul told Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.

Paul, a non-interventionist, blamed the U.S., including the Biden administration, for beating the drums to admit Ukraine to NATO even though Putin described that as a red line.Had Ukraine joined NATO, Paul continued, we may still have the destruction, but we would also have troops in Ukraine.

Blinken pointed out the countries Russia has invaded in recent years Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova were not part of NATO.Russia, Blinken emphasized, has not attacked NATO countries.

You could also argue the countries theyve attacked were part of Russia, Paul responded. They were part of the Soviet Union.

The exchange sparked some barbs at Paul on Twitter from critics suggesting he was embracing Putins line.

Maureen Groppe

A third mass gravehas been found near the embattled Ukrainian city of Mariupol, and the mayor says Russian occupiers have forced residents to work on the burials.The trench, seen on satellite images,stretches more than 200 yards and contains thousands of civilian bodies,Mayor Vadym Boychenko said.

"We know about these mass gravesbecause these fascists and I have no other words involve the local population for burial," Boychenko told Radio Svoboda. "They told us that you need to work hours (for)food, water. … People are forced to do so."

Weeks of Russian bombardments have devastated the communityand shrunk the once-bustling city of more than 400,000 to a small fraction of that number. Russian forces control most of the city;holdouts are centered in and around the sprawling Azovstal steel plant.

The British Defense Ministry saysRussias decision to besiege rather than attack the plant means many Russian units cannot be redeployed elsewhere in the country. "Ukraines defense of Mariupol has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness," the British assessment says.

Recent security incidents ina Russian-backed separatist region of Moldovahave raised the U.N.'s concerns and thrusted the sliver of land known asTransnistria into the headlines of the Ukraine war coverage.

Explosions rang out Monday and Tuesday inTransnistria, a territory of nearly 500,000 people alongside the southwestern Ukrainian border that broke away from Moldova during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

Transnistria has not been recognized by any country, but the presence of 1,500 Russian troops andan estimated 20,000 tons of Soviet-eraweapons, ammunition and explosives within its land have led to longstanding worries that it could be used as a launching point for a Russian invasioninto Ukraine or Moldova. Such an aggression at this pointcould further expand the war.

"It's the reality we're seeing, the surreal reality. That's what really worries a lot of people," said Olena Khorenjenko, 33, a Ukrainian refugee who fled to Moldova and is familiar with Transnistria.

-- Trevor Hughes

Western leaders on Tuesday denounced an attemptbyRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to change the narrative of the war in Ukraine and his suggestion that nuclear weapons could come into play.

U.S. Defense SecretaryLloyd Austin called the threat "dangerous'' and "irresponsible'' a day after Lavrov said the possibility ofnuclear warshould not be underestimated,'' adding that the danger is serious.

Lavrov also accused NATO of fighting a proxy war and pouring oil on the fire with its support for Ukraine, a notion rejected by BritishPrime Minister Boris Johnson inan interview with British station Talk TV.Russia has singled out Britain for criticism after a U.K. government minister said it was legitimate for Ukraine to hit fuel depots in Russia with U.K.-supplied weapons.

"Its very, very important that we dont accept the way that the Russians are trying to frame what is happening in Ukraine, Johnson said.They are trying to frame this as a conflict between Russia and the West, or Russia and NATO. Thats not what is going on.

Ukraine has the right to useWestern-provided weapons to strike military targets on Russian soil, U.K. Defense MinisterJames Heappey said. Such strikes aimed at disrupting supply lines are "entirely legitimate," he told the BBC.

Heappey also dismisseda top Russian diplomat's assertion that the danger of a nuclear conflict is "serious" and "real."Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the statements on Russian TV, accusing Ukrainian leaders and NATO of provoking Russia by "pouringoil on the fire" with the advanced weaponry. Heappey said the likelihood of nuclear war is"vanishingly small" since it would not be in the best interestsof any country.

The State Department said U.S. diplomats began returning to Ukraine by making day trips to temporary offices in the western city of Lviv from neighboring Poland, starting Tuesday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that he expects diplomats to first work out of Lviv before going back to Kyiv after assessing how the embassy there can be securely reopened.

We want to have our embassy reopened and were working to do that, he said.

The U.S. relocated its embassy operations to Poland days before Russiabegan its invasion on Feb. 24.Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urged a speedy reopening.

All our European partners are already back there, Risch said. We need people on the ground to help Ukraine meet its needs immediately.

During Tuesday's hearing with the SenateForeign Relations Committee, Secretary of State AntonyBlinken said his recent trip to Ukraine left an indelible impression.

Traveling to Kyiv by train, he passed mile after mile of Ukrainian territory that Russia falsely thought it could seize in a matter of weeks. He said Ukrainians won the battle for Kyiv and the city is coming back to life.

For all the carnage that Russias brutal invasion continues to inflict, Ukraine was and will continue to be a free and independent country, he said. It's impossible not to be moved by what the Ukrainians have achieved.

Asked for his assessment of whats happening in Russia, Blinken said Russian President Vladimir Putins propaganda system is hard to penetrate, but citizens are increasingly feeling the effects of sanctions. Still, I think what were seeing is the Russian people, to the extent that theyre informed, continue to support for the most part President Putin, he said.

Maureen Groppe

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde lashed out at Russian officials for expelling four Swedish diplomats, calling the action "unjustified and disproportionate." By expelling Western diplomats, Russia is intensifying its international isolation, she said on Twitter. Three Russian diplomats were expelled from Sweden earlier this month.

"Sweden will respond appropriately to Russia's unwarranted actions," Linde said.

On Monday, media outlets in Sweden and Finland reported that both nations will apply next month to join NATO. One of Russia's stated reasons for its invasion of Ukraine was concern over NATO expansion.

Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Tuesday reiterated the Defense Departments interest in seeing Russia weakened so it cannot threaten its geographic neighbors.

Russia continues to isolate itself, its economy is in tatters, its military has been depleted in many ways … they are a weaker military, they are a weaker state right now, Kirby said in an interview with CNN. We don't want to see Russia able to conduct this kind of invasion again in the future.

Kirby also responded to comments made by Russias foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on raising the specter of nuclear war, calling them obviously unhelpful, not constructive and certainly not indicative of what a responsible nuclear power ought to be doing in a public sphere."

Ella Lee

Ukraine can win war with Russia according to Def. Sec. Lloyd Austin

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to allies and emphasized the strength of the Ukrainian military.

Staff Video, Department of Defense

Contributing: The Associated Press

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US, allies hustling to save Ukraine; Rand Paul says US push to get Ukraine into NATO provoked invasion: April 26 recap - USA TODAY

A series of mysterious explosions in Moldova have raised the threat of Russias war in Ukraine spilling over into new territory, with unpredictable consequences.

The blasts destroyed radio antennas in a Russian-garrisoned sliver of eastern Moldova along the Ukrainian border, Transnistria, which had been peaceful since a brief conflict in 1992 waged by Kremlin-backed separatists against the Moldovan army.

The separatist authorities blamed the incidents on Ukrainian infiltrators while the Kyiv government alleged they were false-flag attacks designed to provide a pretext for an infusion of Russian troops, to add to the 1,500 already based there, just as similar blasts in the Donbas preceded the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Those allegations were given greater weight when residents in Transnistria received fake SMS texts on Tuesday warning of an imminent Ukrainian attack. The Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, convened an emergency meeting of her security council and declared that forces were at play in Transnistria which were interested in destabilising the region.

A Russian move into Transnistria would pose an imminent threat to the sovereignty of Moldova, a country of 2.6 million people which, like Ukraine, has shown increasing interest in joining Nato.

It would also menace Odesa, the Ukrainian port city which lies on the Black Sea coast between Moldova and Russian-occupied Kherson.

Four days ago the commander of Russias central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, said Moscows goals involved the seizure of southern Ukraine, so as to give Russia control over the Black Sea coast and access to Transnistria.

On Tuesday, Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russias security council and one of Vladimir Putins closest advisers, raised another grim specter, declaring that Ukraine could fragment into several states, blaming such an outcome on western intervention.

The threat of dismemberment follows the humiliating failure of Putins primary war aim, to subjugate all of Ukraine and install a friendly government in Kyiv. The massive offensive launched in February was unable to break Ukrainian resistance while Moscow was unable to deter Nato support.

Repeated Russian warnings, explicitly brandishing the worlds biggest nuclear arsenal, have had a diminishing impact. Finland and Sweden look set to declare their readiness to join Nato next month in time for the alliance summit at the end of June, shrugging off suggestions from Moscow that such a move would lead to the westward deployment of Russian forces, including nuclear missiles.

On Monday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, tried amplifying the threat, accusing Nato of fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and warning that the danger of nuclear conflict should not be underestimated. But barely 12 hours later, Germany dropped its earlier escalatory reservations about supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine, and announced that it would be sending 50 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.

That announcement, by the defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, was made at Tuesdays meeting of approximately 40 countries at Ramstein airbase, to coordinate and enhance western military support for Kyiv that marked a raising of the stakes by Ukraines backers. Announcing the UKs own contribution of anti-aircraft systems, defence minister James Heappey went further, saying it would be entirely legitimate for the weapons to be used against supply lines inside Russia.

In response Russia has started bombing the supply lines bringing in western arms, targeting railways and bridges and threatening to hit Kyiv.

As the Ukraine war evolves, the parties to the conflict are redefining their aims. Russia has abandoned outright conquest for now, and is seeking to carve out a contiguous zone of occupation reaching as far as Transnistria, which Putin can package as Novorossiya, the foundation for a new Russian empire.

The Biden administration meanwhile has emphatically confirmed that its objectives go beyond the defence of Ukraine to the hobbling of Russias capacity to carry out further acts of aggression.

What we want to see is a free and independent Ukraine and at the end of the day, that will involve a weakened Russia and strengthened Nato, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley, told CNN, echoing remarks made by the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, the day before.

Whats at stake here is much greater than Ukraine, Milley added. If Russia gets away with this cost-free, so goes the so-called international world order and we enter an area of serious instability.

With the start of this new phase in the war, a layer is being stripped away from the buffer that has thus far kept Nato and Russia from coming into direct, hostile contact, during the cold war and since. And if the ominous explosions in Transnistria are auguries of a new Putin gambit, Moldova could find itself to be the next proving ground where this dangerous new world makes itself felt.

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Russias war in Ukraine threatens to spill over in dangerous new phase - The Guardian

A Ukrainian refugee speaks with a local interpreter as she and her two children arrive at the Siret border crossing between Romania and Ukraine on April 18. Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A Ukrainian refugee speaks with a local interpreter as she and her two children arrive at the Siret border crossing between Romania and Ukraine on April 18.

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) predicted that some 4 million people would flee the country throughout the course of the war.

In fact, that's how many Ukrainians left their homeland in just about the first month of the conflict. And that number surpassed 5 million last week.

The UNHCR now projects that some 8.3 million refugees will leave Ukraine, and the agency is calling for more financial support for them and their host countries.

It's bringing together 142 organizations including U.N. agencies, Red Cross societies, nongovernmental organizations and faith-based institutions to revise what it calls its "Regional Refugee Response Plan" accordingly.

UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo said at a press conference in Geneva on Tuesday that the plan will prioritize food security, education, basic needs, sanitation, resilience and logistics, as well as transitional cash assistance.

"Launching an updated Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRRP) for the Ukraine situation yesterday, UNHCR and partners are seeking US$1.85 billion to support a projected 8.3 million refugees in neighbouring countries, namely Hungary, the Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, as well as other countries in the region, including Belarus, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic," she said.

Mantoo acknowledged that countries in the region have welcomed refugees since the start of the war, calling the mobilization of national authorities, host communities, grassroots organizations and volunteers "remarkable."

And while they have existing mechanisms to respond to the influx of refugees, Mantoo said, "The scale of refugee arrivals and the breadth of their needs requires further support for national social protection systems and services."

The response plan aims to ensure Ukrainian refugees have access to humanitarian assistance, safety and international protection, while also promoting social and economic opportunities, she added.

According to the UNHCR, some 7.7 million Ukrainians remain displaced inside of their home country, while another 13 million are estimated to be stranded in affected areas and unable to leave because of security risks. Of those who have been forced to flee their homes, 90% are women and children.

The agency says more "robust and flexible funding" will play a critical role in allowing neighboring countries to support and protect this growing population of refugees. Mantoo added: "Until we see an end to this war, humanitarian needs will continue to grow and displacement will not cease."

This story originally appeared in the Morning Edition live blog.

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The U.N. now projects more than 8 million people will flee Ukraine as refugees - NPR

When we say Russia, the double s is pronounced sh. In the middle of fascism we find the same sound, sh though this time it is generated by sc, which English borrows from the original Italian fascismo. We can render that sound with sh or, in these two words, ss and sc, but the clarifyingly simple Ukrainian orthography picks up that sound, however it is spelled in whatever language, and renders it as . So + = , also thanks to that middle sound. The sh sound in the middle, the , refers to both Russia and to fascism, but only because Ukrainians are playing with English. In neither Russian nor Ukrainian does the word for Russian have a sh sound.

P relies on English to work, but it is not easy for English to reclaim. When Russia becomes P, the vowels firm up and become more honest; they no longer quite conform to English. The same is even true for the ism, which in Ukrainian requires a more clipped and disciplined sound. These honest vowels make it hard for English speakers to pronounce p as it is supposed to be pronounced and even if we were to pronounce it correctly in Ukrainian, it would not sound like much of anything in English.

On the ground. Russiashowed no sign of easing his assault, as missiles struck the southern port city of Zaporizhzhia, a day after Russian missiles hit at least five rail stationsin western and central Ukraine.

Polands gas supply. Russias state gas company announced the complete suspension of natural gas deliveries to Polandthrough a major pipeline, in an escalation of the tensions stemming from the war. The Kremlin has been particularly angry at Warsaw for its support of Ukraine.

Russian-allied region hit. Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldovathat occupies a strategically important spot on Ukraines western flank, was struck by explosions. Ukrainian officials accused Russia of carrying them outas apretext to invade Ukraine from that side.

This is why, to claim p for English, I have to transliterate it as Ukrainians also generally do as ruscism. The mechanically correct transcription would be rashysm, which is hardly clear. We have to go back and get the u to indicate Russia, and we take the ism because we know this is about ideology. And while the Ukrainian consonant demands a sh, the resulting rushism would suggest a weakness for American talk radio or Canadian classic rock. We know that did not actually come from an sh in the first place; it came from both the ss of Russia and the sc of fascism. We choose sc, and get ruscism. As in Ukrainian, a sh sound joins the two parts. But now, in English, the visible sc recalls the unusual spelling of fascism, as it should.

In English, if you believe in racism, you are a racist; if you believe in fascism, you are a fascist. This lexical progression is similar in Ukrainian. , racism, has the associated personal form , racist. , fascism, yields , fascist. Likewise, the new word has , or ruscist. (Unlike English, Ukrainian also generates female forms of these words.) Ukrainians sometimes refer to individual Russians as ruscists, making lists, for example, of prominent Russian supporters of the war. But there is also the tendency to refer to all Russian soldiers in Ukraine as ruscists. This runs into certain difficulties: Given the imperial character of the Russian state, a very high proportion of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine belong to national minorities. This suggests a deeper problem, which is that even soldiers dying for a fascist cause need not be fascists themselves.

Whereas Russian leaders have intensified the Soviet tradition of referring to contemporary enemies as fascists, in Ukraine, the word refers more simply to the horrors of World War II, which were even deeper there than in Russia. When Ukrainians speak of ruscism, they are accusing Russians of a deep betrayal of what should have been a common inheritance and a common memory. They are accusing Russians of becoming what should have been defeated long ago.

Few beyond Ukraine seem to know that millions of Ukrainians, exercising freedom of speech in a country that allows it, have invented and are deploying a new word. Ruscism will sound strange at first. So did genocide and ethnic cleansing, other words that emerged from (Eastern) European wars. The concepts that clarify our world today were once strange and new. But when they point to something, they can take hold.

Russian fascism is certainly a phenomenon that requires a concept. The Russian Federation promotes the extreme right everywhere. Putin is the idol of white supremacists around the world. Prominent Russian fascists are given access to mass media during wars, including this one. Members of the Russian elite, above all Putin himself, rely increasingly on fascist concepts. Putins very justification of the war in Ukraine, as an act of cleansing violence that will return Russia to itself, represents a Christian form of fascism. The recent publication, in an official Russian news service, of what I consider an openly genocidal handbook, providing a plan for the elimination of the Ukrainian nation as such, confirms all this. Moscow is the center of fascism in our world.

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The War in Ukraine Has Unleashed a New Word - The New York Times

Were Ukrainians sending signals to the world prior to Russias 2022 invasion that they believed, as Putin does, that they and Russians were part of one people? In the aftermath of the first stage of Russias 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reporting has emerged that Russia expected to quickly win the war and consolidate its military victory by coopting local elected officials and citizens, who were expected to rejoice in or at least countenance Russian occupation. Social science research from a broad range of scholars conducted prior to Russias invasion, however, did not support Russias expectations and rather suggested that Ukrainians would strongly oppose Russian occupation and feel loyalty to Ukraine.

Why pro-Kremlin forces believed they could count on broad popular support in Ukraine has sparked speculation and debate among politicians and pundits alike. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with Russian television, accused Viktor Medvedchuk, a leader of the pro-Russian opposition in Ukraine, of encouraging Russian authorities to believe that there was widespread underlying support among Ukrainians for Russias purported liberation. Others have suggested that Putin was misled by oligarchs and yes men close to him. Yet another option is that Russias FSB security agency, which itself commissioned surveys in Ukraine, cherry-picked survey results that fit its narrative. They also potentially misunderstood how polling in a democracy is different than in an autocracy like Russia.

Regardless of who convinced Putin and his supporters, clearly, Russian decision-makers were severely misled about Ukrainian support for their military ambitions. Indeed, Ukrainian citizens have volunteered to take up arms en masse, and, overwhelmingly, support the war effort.

It is important to understand that the source of this resistance comes from the majority of Ukrainians civic identification with Ukraine and loyalty to the Ukrainian state, regardless of the language they speak or their ethnic heritage. Ukrainian patriotism is not a recent phenomenon and not predominantly a product of a rally round the flag. Moreover, it is important to highlight that social science research, including my own, provided strong evidence that Ukrainians did not support unification with or occupation by Russia prior to the invasion. Indeed, Ukrainian identity was already strong and likely getting stronger.

There existed, prior to Russias invasion, a large body of survey evidence that demonstrated that Ukrainians did not support a closer relationship with Russia. For example, the political scientists Graeme Robertson and Grigor Pop-Eleches, in examining changes before and after the Euromaidan revolution and ensuing Russian invasion that began in 2014, explicitly asked Ukrainian survey respondents at two points in time (2012 and 2015) whether they saw Ukraine, Russia, the USSR, or a region of Ukraine as their homeland. They found a vanishingly small percentage of people chose Russia, and this was true both in 2012 and 2015. Moreover, they found that between 2012 and 2015, the percentage that said Ukraine increased 11 percentage points from the already high 80 percent to 91 percent, mainly at the expense of those who had responded that the USSR was their homeland. This increase occurred despite the fact that the percentage of respondents who spoke Russian at home remained stable at approximately 30 percent over the same time period (with another 20 percent speaking both Ukrainian and Russian). The research also found a large drop in support between 2012 and 2015 for a customs union with Russia across both Ukraines linguistic and ethnic divides, suggesting that, when asked to state their explicit preference, most Ukrainians did not support closer ties with Russia after the invasion of Donbas in 2014. Indeed, as Siamak Tundra Naficy wrote recently, Putin may have overlooked the utility of violence and war in remaking identities, a process that has been at work in Ukraine for seven years now.

Despite this evidence, Russian policy-makers could potentially have argued that asking Ukrainians what they believed prior to the Russian invasion did not yield valid insight because Ukrainians may have been hiding their true opinions due to pressure from the West and its allies in Ukraine to hold certain beliefs. To investigate whether this explanation is realistic, it is necessary to introduce two terms used in survey research to explain the ways in which citizens stated beliefs may differ from their true beliefs and to examine whether these mechanisms were at play in Ukraine.

The first term is preference falsification, which the noted social scientist Timur Kuran developed to discuss citizens support for authoritarian regimes. Kuran distinguished between the views that citizens state in public and those they state in private. He argued that the prevailing mood of a country might lead citizens to say they supported the regime in public but privately state that they were opposed to it. In the case of Ukraine, if respondents were falsifying their preferences, they would state in public that they supported an independent Ukraine but in the privacy of their own homes might tell their neighbors or close friends that they supported reunification with Russia or the recreation of the USSR. If preference falsification was at play, then, as soon as Russia took over Ukrainian territory, these citizens would no longer need to falsify their preferences and could openly state they supported Russias occupation.

This theory of preference falsification, however, assumes an authoritarian (or at least non-pluralistic) state where survey respondents do not feel comfortable sharing their true policy positions in public due to fear of politically motivated repercussions. Given that Ukraine is a democracy where wide-ranging opinions, even about topics considered sensitive in North America, are often publicly shared, ample reason exists to question whether citizens would feel the need to falsify their publicly stated preferences. There are, of course, other reasons survey respondents might not share their private views with a survey interviewer. For example, respondents may want to give what they think is a socially desirable answer, even if they are not afraid of the political repercussions of stating their true opinion. But increasingly surveys in Ukraine and around the world are carried out online, which provides respondents more anonymity to share their opinions even if they may not be popular. Nevertheless, the concern about private and public preferences remains an important one.

Even if it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why respondents private preferences might differ from ones they publicly espouse on surveys, there exists a wide variety of techniques in the social sciences designed to elicit respondents true private preferences by shielding these responses from the survey interviewer. In several research projects I have conducted in Ukraine, I have used these techniques to examine respondents opinions across a wide variety of topics, such as corruption a hot-button issue in Ukraine or voting for female politicians. I have not found any evidence of Ukrainians hiding their privately held preferences. While these studies were not specifically about Ukrainians preferences regarding Russia, they do support the position that, unless given overwhelming evidence to the contrary, we should take Ukrainians at their word and not believe that preference falsification is at play when examining their expression of public opinion.

The second term is dissociation. According to this concept, individuals may implicitly (at a subconscious level) have an underlying predisposition for a policy or course of action even if they explicitly state support, be it publicly or privately, for a different policy. If this had been the case prior to Russias 2022 invasion, while Ukrainians might have explicitly stated that they did not support integration with Russia or the Russian occupation of Ukraine, their underlying subconscious processes might suggest that they would support such an outcome. Given the Russian-backed war in Donetsk and Luhansk starting in 2014, dissociation could potentially have become more salient because while subconsciously Ukrainians may have felt positively towards Russia, they may have felt the need to explicitly state a pro-Ukraine position because their government was fighting a war against Russian-backed separatists in Donbas.

Researchers in psychology have developed a range of tests to investigate these implicit preferences, and these tools have been increasingly used in the field of political science. In a study I recently published with Calvin Garner in the journal International Studies Quarterly, based on data primarily from 2015, we set out to empirically test the idea that Ukrainian citizens were dissociating between what they said explicitly and how they implicitly felt. We focused on running these studies in the east of the country in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odesa, where attitudes towards Russia were particularly geopolitically important. We also conducted the study in Kyiv.

To get at Ukrainians implicit attitudes, we used a technique called the implicit association test, examples of which readers can take online. Implicit association tests ask respondents to associate many words with a given category (Ukraine or Russia in our study) or a given attribute (positive or negative in our study). In the test, a word that is associated either with a category or an attribute is shown in the middle of the screen, while the corresponding categories or attributes are shown in the upper two corners. For example, a user might see category word like Suffering in the middle of the screen, and Russia or Negative in the upper left and Ukraine or Positive in the upper right. (In other tasks Russia will be paired with Positive and Ukraine with Negative). The respondent is asked to use specific keys on the keyboard to associate the word in the middle of the screen with the relevant category-attribute combination as quickly as possible. The computer tracks the time respondents take to carry out each of the many association tasks, generating a metric referred to as the response latency. The validity of the implicit-association test comes from the fact that if a respondent does not associate the word in the middle with the combination of a category (e.g., Russia) in combination with the attribute (e.g., Negative) listed on the same side of the screen, then the respondent will be much slower in choosing the side of the screen to which the word in the middle belongs. In our example, respondents will be slower to associate Suffering from the middle of the screen with Russia or Negative if they view Russia positively. Each respondents implicit bias toward either Ukraine or Russia is the standardized performance difference (known as the IAT d-score) between that respondents response latencies on blocks where the negative attribute is paired with Ukraine and the positive attribute with Russia and blocks where the negative attribute is paired with Russia and positive attribute with Ukraine.

In addition to the implicit association test, we also asked respondents to explicitly tell us whether they felt positively or negatively toward Ukraine and Russia. Getting measurements of both explicit and implicit attitudes allows us to quantitatively measure whether pro-Russian dissociation was occurring. If we saw a lot of bias toward Russia on the implicit test, but heard little explicit support for Russia, that would suggest that Ukrainians either did not feel they could admit to pro-Russian views or were subconsciously predisposed toward Russia. But that is not what we found. Across all the cities in which we ran the study, we found that the majority of respondents were both implicitly and explicitly pro-Ukraine. And there was very little evidence of large-scale dissociation that is, peoples explicit and implicit attitudes coincided. This study provides even more evidence that Ukrainians did not harbor underlying pro-Russian predispositions that Russians simply had to expose by invading the country.

In summary, Russia grossly mis-assessed the level of support a Russian invasion would receive from the Ukrainian population. Their assumptions were not supported by contemporary social science research, which has found that Ukrainians strongly supported their homeland before the Russian-back war in Donbas, which started in 2014, and did so even more after 2014. Russias current invasion has only further strengthened Ukrainian national cohesion and sense of identity.

Ukrainian citizens strong rejection of the Russian occupation spotlights how Russias war in Ukraine is one of attempted imperial expansion and certainly not one of national reunification. And, while imperial powers can adopt different techniques to rule their conquered territories, Russias current rhetoric and actions suggest that any Ukrainians in territory conquered by Russia will be subject to Russian attempts to extirpate their Ukrainian identity. In this regard, the Russian occupiers are likely to go even further than they did in Donbas, where the teaching of Ukrainian language has almost been wiped out. Indeed, the banning of symbols of Ukrainian identity, outlawing of Ukrainian language instruction in schools, and the covering historical narratives in the media and in education that fit Putins distorted version of the facts are likely to compose key elements of Russian occupation.

This kind of authoritarian rule is exactly the type of scenario Timur Kuran envisioned when he developed the idea of preference falsification. Given the possibility of harsh repression or even death under Putins regime, Ukrainians who currently share their opinions freely with the world will likely be forced to falsify their preferences under Russian occupation if Putin is able to consolidate his rule.

Aaron Erlich is an assistant professor of political science at McGill University where he is a member of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship.

Image: CC-BY 2.0, Flickr user Sasha Maksymenko

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Roots of the Resistance: Understanding National Identity in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia claimed victory in Mariupol on Thursday despite persistent fighting there, publicly calling off an assault on the final Ukrainian stronghold in the devastated city in a stark display of the Kremlins desire to present a success to the Russian public.

Mr. Putin ordered his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, in a choreographed meeting shown on Russian television, not to storm the sprawling, fortress-like Azovstal steel mill complex where 2,000 Ukrainian fighters were said to be holed up, and instead to blockade the plant so that a fly cant get through. That avoids, for now, a bloody battle in the strategic port city that would add to Russias mounting casualty toll and tie down troops who could be deployed to the broader battle for eastern Ukraine.

Of course, getting control of such an important center in the south as Mariupol is a success, Mr. Putin was shown telling Mr. Shoigu, though the city is not yet fully under Russian control. Congratulations.

The fight for Mariupol carries enormous significance for both sides. It is the last pocket of serious resistance in the land bridge the Kremlin has created between territory it already holds in the Donbas region in the east and the Crimean Peninsula in the south. It is also home to much of Ukraines Azov Battalion, filled with far-right fighters who give a sheen of credibility to Mr. Putins false claim that Ukraine is run by Nazis and that he is denazifying the country.

The battle for the city also illustrates both the brutality of the Russian invasion and its struggles truths that have galvanized much of the world but that Moscow has worked hard to conceal from its own people. Mariupol has been under siege for more than a month, much of it lies in ruins, and satellite images show a growing mass grave on the citys outskirts. Roughly three-quarters of the residents have fled and, according to Ukrainian officials, about 20,000 civilians there have been killed yet it is still not fully conquered.

Russia is shifting the focus of the war to gaining territory and wiping out Ukrainian forces in Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukraine since 2014. Britains Defense Ministry said Thursday in an intelligence assessment that the Kremlin is eager to make swift gains that it can trumpet on May 9, at the annual celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

At the White House, President Biden said the fight for Donbas was going to be more limited in terms of geography but not in terms of brutality, compared to the early phase of the war. But, he added, Russia will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine.

Mr. Biden announced another $800 million package of weapons for Ukraine, including dozens of heavy howitzers, 144,000 shells for them, and tactical drones, bringing total military aid this year to well above $3 billion. The weapons supplied by NATO nations are becoming increasingly heavy and sophisticated, reflecting an expected shift in the nature of combat as the war pivots to Donbas, but the president said some of the armaments will remain secret.

We wont always be able to advertise everything that we, that our partners are doing, Mr. Biden said. Referring to the U.S.-made antitank missile that Ukrainians have used to devastating effect, he added, To modernize Teddy Roosevelts advice, sometimes we will speak softly and carry a large Javelin.

Mr. Biden also banned ships tied to Russia from U.S. ports, and announced $500 million in economic aid to the country, though President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine later told the World Bank that it needed up to $7 billion in support per month. The White House also detailed plans for accepting up to 100,000 refugees from Ukraine, saying that U.S. citizens can begin applying to sponsor the immigrants on Monday.

The war in Ukraine took center stage in the French presidential campaign in a televised debate Wednesday night between President Emmanuel Macron and his far-right challenger, Marine Le Pen, who has in the past praised Mr. Putin. She spoke against arming Ukraine and said Mr. Macrons efforts to cut imports of Russian energy would hurt France economically. He replied, you are, in fact, in Russias grip, noting that Ms. Le Pens party had borrowed from a Kremlin-linked bank.

The Kremlin worked quickly to portray the battle for Mariupol as a success. Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putins spokesman, told reporters that there was now an opportunity to start establishing a peaceful life in Mariupol and start returning the population to their homes.

Mr. Peskov described the Azovstal steel plant an immense Soviet-era complex near the city center as a separate facility with no impact on life elsewhere in the city. Ukrainian fighters have been hiding for weeks in the plants underground bunkers, along with about 1,000 civilians, amid rising concerns they lack food and water.

Intense fighting on

Tahanrozka Street

Satellite image

angle of view

Intense fighting

on Tahanrozka

Street

Satellite image

angle of view

Intense fighting on

Tahanrozka Street

Satellite image

angle of view

Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, said on Wednesday that his troops would soon help Russia capture the Azovstal plant in its entirety. In Thursdays televised meeting, Mr. Shoigu told Mr. Putin that it would take three to four days to clear the plant.

But Mr. Putin responded by calling the storming of the plant impractical, and added, I order it to be canceled.

It was not clear what that would mean on the ground; shelling and rocket attacks on the steel mill complex continued on Thursday, Staff Sgt. Leonid Kuznetsov of the Ukrainian National Guard, one of the soldiers there, said via text message. He said that shortly before he heard about Mr. Putins public order, Russian troops had attempted to storm the plant, coming within about 20 meters of his hide-out. The Ukrainians, he said, were running out of ammunition.

In directing Mr. Shoigu on a national broadcast, Mr. Putin, who made the decision to go to war, presented himself as a rational and humane leader. This is the case when we must think that is, we must always think, but even more so in this case about preserving the life and health of our soldiers and officers, he said. There is no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities.

Implicit in his statement was a potential credibility challenge for Mr. Putin, stemming from his unwillingness to admit setbacks and blunders in the war to his own people. The government and military have not acknowledged the deaths of Russian sailors on the missile cruiser Moskva, pride of Russias Black Sea fleet, which was sunk last week, but information about missing troops is increasingly circulating online.

Coming after Russias decision last month to abandon its stalled campaign in the north of Ukraine, the sinking of the Moskva Ukraine claims to have hit it with two missiles and the morass in Mariupol, once a thriving industrial and shipping hub, underscore the systemic weaknesses bedeviling the Russian military.

But costly as Mariupol has been for Russia, it is far costlier for Ukraine. Civilian casualties are high, though for now there are only rough estimates, and nearly all the vital infrastructure including some of Ukraines biggest export-oriented enterprises have been destroyed. Hospitals, theaters, schools and homes have been reduced to rubble.

President Zelensky said on Thursday that he would trade Russian soldiers who had been taken prisoner for the civilians sheltered at Azovstal, but he said that Russia had not yet responded to the offer.

Agreements to evacuate civilians en masse or bring in vital aid have mostly been thwarted, and have sometimes turned deadly, largely because Russian units have halted or fired on aid convoys. But day by day, people have managed to escape, on their own or in small groups.

On Thursday, a yellow bus carrying dozens of people from Mariupol arrived in the central Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, where passengers described weeks hiding in basements, cold and hungry, amid endless shelling. They escaped in a harrowing, all-night drive through Russian-held territory, past countless checkpoints manned by jumpy Russian soldiers.

In the city everything is destroyed, its terrifying, said Matvei Popko, 10, who had fled with his mother, father and grandmother. At any moment your home could get hit and collapse. For a little more than a month we lived in the basement.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of forcibly deporting hundreds of thousands of civilians, including a large number from the Mariupol area, to Russian territory, for use as propaganda fodder and a bargaining chip. Russia denies the charge, which is a potential war crime.

The weeks of heavy fighting in Mariupol tied up a significant chunk of Russias combat power; at one point the battle was estimated by military analysts to include roughly 10 percent of all the Russian forces in Ukraine.

On Thursday, a Russian video news report from the scene showed a convoy of armored vehicles moving out of Mariupol. Seymon Pegov, a pro-Kremlin reporter embedded with the Russian forces in the city, interviewed Timur Kurilkin, a commander of a separatist battalion from Donetsk, a city in separatist-held eastern Ukraine.

We are going home, to Donetsk, said Mr. Kurilkin, walking past the vehicles. Our next battle is tomorrow, he said, without specifying where.

In Mariupol, Russia is already seeking to establish authority over civilian life. Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic, promised high school seniors that they would receive diplomas certified by the separatist entity.

On Wednesday, Andrei Turchak, a top official in Mr. Putins party, visited a school in Mariupol, which has already switched to Russian-language curriculum. In a video of his visit, posted to social media, he said, Many textbooks have already been delivered and these deliveries will continue.

Anton Troianovski reported from Hamburg, Germany, Ivan Nechepurenko from Tbilisi, Georgia, and Richard Prez-Pea from New York. Reporting was contributed by Michael Schwirtz from Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, David E. Sanger and Zach Montague from Washington, Neil MacFarquhar from Istanbul, Matthew Mpoke Bigg from London, Alan Yuhas from New York, and Cora Engelbrecht from Krakow, Poland.

Original post:

What Happened on Day 57 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times

Fri, Apr 22 20221:23 AM EDT

As many as 9,000 people may be buried in a mass grave in a village outside the city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said in a statement on Telegram.

Satellite images captured by the U.S. defense contractor Maxar show mass graves 20 times bigger than a cemetery discovered this month in the city of Bucha, the Mariupol City Council said, according to NBC translation. The site in the village of Mangush could hold 3,000 to 9,000 and 70 bodies have been found so far, the city council.

Maxar said the graves appeared toward the end of March and expanded in April.

CNBC and NBC were not able to independently confirm the report.

A grave with a wreath and a Ukrainian flag in Chernihiv, Ukraine on April 16, 2022. As many as 9,000 people may be buried in a mass grave in a village outside the city of Mariupol, Ukrainian officials said, NBC News reported.

Andre Luis Alves | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

"The biggest war crime of the 21st century was committed in Mariupol. This is the new Babyn Yar," said Mariupol's Mayor Vadym Boychenko, referring to the Kyiv ravine where Nazi forces killed an estimated 33,000 Jews in 1941.

"And now Putin is destroying Ukrainians.He has already killed tens of thousands of civilians in Mariupol.And this requires a strong reaction from the entire civilized world.Anything needs to stop the genocide," said the mayor.

The embattled city of Mariupol has been hit especially hard as victory there will be a prized target for Russia. The capture of the southern port city will give Moscow control over much of Ukraine's southern coast and provide a land corridor to Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Chelsea Ong

Fri, Apr 22 202212:07 AM EDT

The liquefied natural gas tanker Sohshu Maru berthed in Japan on Dec. 17, 2021. Japan's industry minister said an exit of Japan from the Sakhalin energy projects in Russia could reduce the impact of Western sanctions and benefit Russia, according to Reuters.

Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Japan's industry minister said exiting the Sakhalin energy projects could reduce the impact of Western sanctions and benefit Russia, Reuters reported.

Japan and Russia both hold stakes in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 integrated oil and gas projects.

"We are concerned that if Japan withdraws from the project and the concessions are acquired by Russia or a third country, it could further boost resource prices and benefit Russia, which will not result in effective sanctions," Japanese Economy, Industry and Trade Minister Koichi Hagiuda told a news conference, Reuters reported.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida previously said he will not abandon the project in order, citing his country's energy security.

Earlier, the Telegraph reported Shell is in talks with some Chinese companies to sell its stake in the project.

Chelsea Ong

Thu, Apr 21 202211:17 PM EDT

Ukrainian soldiers patrol in the frontline of Mykolaiv surrounded of the destruction after the Russian shelling over a village in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address that Russia has rejected an Easter truce proposal.

Celestino Arce | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Russia rejected an Easter truce proposal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address.

"This shows very well how the leaders of this state actually treat the Christian faith, one of the most joyful and important holidays," he added, though he said he still hopes for peace.

Earlier, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a four-day pause to the fighting in Ukraine during the Orthodox Christian Easter to evacuate civilians and allow humanitarian aid to be sent into needy areas.

Zelenskyy also said Mariupol continues to resist Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim of victory in the city.

Chelsea Ong

Thu, Apr 21 20225:48 PM EDT

Dmitry Beliakov | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Vagit Alekperov, the longtime CEO of Russia's second-largest oil company Lukoil, informed the board that he would resign from the company Thursday, according to a statement.

A former oil rig worker who founded Lukoil in 1993, Alekperov had been at the helm of the company for nearly 30 years, amassing a fortune estimated at around $10.5 billion. According to Lukoil, Alekperov controls slightly over 8% of the company, which reported revenues of $131 billion last year.

Seen as relatively independent from the Kremlin, Alekperov managed to escape the first several rounds of Western sanctions, during which many of his fellow Russian billionaires were targeted.

Last week, both the United Kingdom and Australia sanctioned Alekperov, instructing banks to freeze his assets in their countries. Reuters reported that Alekperov decided to resign in order to protect the company's operations.

Christina Wilkie

Thu, Apr 21 20225:13 PM EDT

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman speaks during a panel with the Friends of Europe in Brussels, Belgium, April 21, 2022.

Johanna Geron | Reuters

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Western sanctions have been key in preventing Russia from deepening its invasion of Ukraine.

"What we have all tried to make sure is that whatever we do hurts Putin," Sherman said before an audience at an event organized by the Friends of Europe think-tank in Brussels.

"What we are aiming for here is a strategic failure for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin and I believe that is already happening," Sherman said, adding that the raft of Western sanctions will have a long-term impact.

Sherman said that so far the U.S. and its allies have imposed sanctions on more than half of Russia's high-tech imports, more than 80% of assets in the Russian banking sector, designated more than 2,100 Russian and Belarusian individuals and entities, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior government officials that enable the Kremlin's war.

For nearly eight weeks, Russian forces have faced a slew of battlefield logistics that stalled advances on Ukraine's capital Kyiv.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Apr 21 20224:20 PM EDT

A Russian ballistic weapon lies in the middle of a Ukrainian farmer's field. Russian disruption of Ukrainian commerce is seen taking a staggering 45.1% off Ukraine's GDP this year, according to the World Bank.

Anastasia Vlasova | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says farmers in the country expect to sow and farm 80% of the land they did a year ago, before Russia's invasion of the country.

That figure is higher than the 75% the Agriculture Ministry predicted earlier this month, and a world away from initial concerns in March that the unprovoked Russian attack might force farmers to cut agricultural production by as much as half.

Ukraine is the world's largest fifth largest exporter of grain, fourth largest of corn, and exports more sunflower (safflower) oil than any country in the world. So any change in the farming output from Kyiv immediately reverberates across Europe, Asia and Africa.

Once crops are harvested, Shmyhal said there will be additional challenges this year in getting them to market. Russian ships are currently blockading Ukraine's major ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

--- Christina Wilkie

Thu, Apr 21 20223:14 PM EDT

(EDITORS NOTE: Image contains graphic content) Cemetery workers unload bodies of civilians killed in and around Bucha before they are transported to the morgue at a cemetery on April 07, 2022 in Bucha, Ukraine

Chris Mcgrath | Getty Images

A new Human Rights Watch report alleged that Russian forces committed "a litany of apparent war crimes during their occupation of Bucha."

Human Rights Watch said its researchers went to Bucha days after Russian troops withdrew from the area and found extensive evidence of executions, other unlawful killings and torture, "all of which would constitute war crimes and potential crimes against humanity."

"Nearly every corner in Bucha is now a crime scene, and it felt like death was everywhere," saidRichard Weir, crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch, in the report. "The evidence indicates that Russian forces occupying Bucha showed contempt and disregard for civilian life and the most fundamental principles of the laws of war."

The Human Rights Watch report was compiled after researchers analyzed physical evidence, photographs and videos, and after they spoke with 32 Bucha residents, emergency responders, morgue workers, doctors and local officials.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Apr 21 20222:47 PM EDT

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in Warsaw, Poland, on April 5, 2022

Mateusz Wlodarczyk | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The United Kingdom unveiled new sanctions targeting top Russian military leaders, including the "Butcher of Bucha."

"Today's new wave of sanctions hits the generals and defense companies that have blood on their hands," wrote Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in a statement announcing the new measures.

Among those sanctioned are Russian Lt. Col. Azatbek Omurbekov, the commanding officer of the unit that occupied Bucha, where there have been reports of war crimes. Omurbekov, dubbed the "Butcher of Bucha," is subject to a travel ban and an asset freeze in the U.K.

Russian Col. Gen. Andrey Serdyukov, commander of Airborne Forces, is one of six senior commanders who oversee the different districts of the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. He also headed the operation of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, according to the British government. Serdyukov is also subject to a travel ban and asset freeze.

The U.K. government has sanctioned approximately $1 trillion worth of global assets from Russian banks and oligarchs and their families, according to figures provided by the British government.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Apr 21 20222:22 PM EDT

The Biden administration unveiled a new program to expedite the admission of Ukrainian refugees into the U.S.

Through a web portal expected to launch Monday, individuals and organizations in the U.S. can apply to sponsor Ukrainians fleeing Russia's invasion. Thousands of Ukrainians previously fled to Mexico and sought refuge at the U.S.-Mexico border, where they were able to enter under a special refugee status.

Biden has said the U.S. will accept as many as 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.

The policy change could strand some Ukrainians who are already at or near the U.S. border with Mexico.

Christina Wilkie

Thu, Apr 21 20221:38 PM EDT

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said he assured Ukraine's prime minister that additional U.S. aid packages will keep Ukraine stocked with ammo to fight invading Russian forces.

"I told him, my response was 'as much as they need,'" Hoyer told reporters after leaving a meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Capitol Hill.

Shmyhal requested that the U.S. provide "different types of weapons systems, ordinance, ammunition" during the meeting, Hoyer said.

"Obviously we need to keep them in ammunition. They cannot run out of ammunition. We're going to do that," he said.

The bipartisan leadership meeting came after Shmyhal met with President Joe Biden at the White House. Following that meeting, Biden announced that the U.S. would send an additional $1.3 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.

Kevin Breuninger

Thu, Apr 21 202212:28 PM EDT

The White House has released a photo of President Joe Biden's meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, which took place just before Biden announced a slate of new sanctions on Russia as well as $1.3 billion in new military aid and government assistance for Kyiv.

The meeting was not on Biden's public schedule and it was not open to press. But the photo of the two men, shown in the classic seated pose in the Oval Office where Biden meets other world leaders, conveys the respect and high esteem the president has for Shmyhal, and by extension, for Ukraine.

Christina Wilkie

Thu, Apr 21 202212:08 PM EDT

Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby speaks during a news briefing at the Pentagon April 11, 2022 in Arlington, Virginia. Kirby spoke on various topics including Russias invasion of Ukraine.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

The United States is sending a highly secretive tactical drone to Ukraine in the latest $800 million security package.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the drones were "rapidly developed by the Air Force, in response, specifically to Ukrainian requirements."

The drones, dubbed "Phoenix Ghost," are tactical unmanned aerial systems manufactured by Aevex Aerospace in Solana Beach, California. Once the drones are in the region, U.S. troops will have to train Ukrainian forces on how to operate them, Kirby added.

The Pentagon did not provide a timeline for when the drones would arrive in the region.

"It provides similar capabilities to the Switchblade series of unmanned systems, similar capabilities but not exact," Kirby said of the more than 121 drones included in the latest military assistance package. "There are other differences in the scope of capability for the Phoenix Ghosts, but I'm just not going to be able to get into more detail about those capabilities right now."

Amanda Macias

Thu, Apr 21 202211:34 AM EDT

Around 120,000 civilians are blocked from leaving the besieged city of Mariupol, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Reuters

Thu, Apr 21 202211:01 AM EDT

U.S. Marines with Alpha Battery, Battalion Landing Team 1st Bn., 4th Marines, fire their M777 Lightweight 155mm Howitzer during Exercise Alligator Dagger in Arta Beach, Djibouti, Dec. 18.

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Ukraine says mass graves in Mariupol were 20 times bigger than Bucha burial site; Biden to send more weapons and aid to Ukraine - CNBC

The Russians have been trying to take the Ukrainian city of Lysychansk for weeks. Signs of the back-and-forth in this battle are everywhere.

We pass the shells of bombed out buildings. The place feels deserted.

The population here was 100,000 before the invasion. Just a fraction of them are left now.

There are few cars around. Our escort, an ambulance, is easy to find in the empty streets.

Mykola lytvyn is at the wheel. The 56-year-old is one of a small team of medics still operating inside this frontline city.

The importance of Lysychansk

Lysychansk is put into an alarming context by the daily battlefield updates published by the Ukrainians, the Russians and western intelligence agencies.

The city is surrounded on three sides by Russian forces pushing towards it.

To the north they are about 20 miles away, pushing south. To the south, they are a similar distance away, pushing north.

And to the east, they are just a few miles away, fighting the Ukrainians in the city of Severodonetsk. Just a river splits the two cities.

'15,000 Russian troops killed' since Ukraine invasion; Russia 'trying to destroy supply routes' - live updates

The Russians are building pontoon bridges to the north on land they control.

Strategically, if the Russians can take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk then they can unite their northern and southern divisions for their push west.

Shelling every hour

Within just a few minutes of meeting Mykola we hear the thuds.

"It's far away, it's not coming here," he says as artillery impacts a mile or so away.

Then a much closer thud. "Now you can hear - this is here. Now we have to take care," he says.

It's been a heavy morning: "After 10am they started (shelling). In the morning, they were shelling from the side of Popasna and we hear stuff from the direction of Rubizhne and Kremina. There was heavy fighting. Here from 10am there was intense shelling, so we were ducking."

The more shelling there is, the more likely it is that he and the team must venture out.

"We are taking the risk to go out if there are casualties. Many people left the city," he says.

The towns he mentions - Popasna, Rubizhne, Kremina - are places which surround Lysychansk. Kremina fell to the Russians overnight on Sunday.

"When the Russians enter the city, it'll be too late to evacuate," he says. "We will stay here as long as we can."

As he speaks, he chuckles with a nonchalance that's reflective, perhaps, of a man who's immune to what he sees, or pretends to be.

It's not shared by all the team. Sitting in the corner, a younger medic who looks utterly exhausted.

"We are working around the clock. We have a limited number of people to help right now. Some people here are working every day, those who live here are working every day" he says.

Another in the team explains how they almost lost a colleague a few days ago.

She went to buy bread, her friend says, and the shelling started. She lost her leg.

One road out

There is just one Ukrainian-held road in and out of Lysychansk now.

We pass through makeshift fortifications - chicanes made from piles of earth removed from trenches which line the fields, and trees chopped down. It's all a rudimentary attempt to slow any Russian advance.

Driving west, away from the front, we pass Ladas from the last century, loaded with people and belongings.

Depopulating the east is part of the Russian strategy and it's working.

Everywhere along this part of the Donbas there are convoys heading west.

The drive from Lysychansk to the next town, Bakhmut, takes about an hour.

There, in the peace of a park that feels a million miles from the frontline, we found Igor, his wife Marina, their little boy Artum.

They are from the town of Popasna. It's just 18 miles to the east, due south of Lysychansk, and it's been the centre of heavy fighting for weeks.

"The shelling was very intense there. Our boy took it so badly," Igor says.

"He was screaming during the night; he was crying. We were living in darkness constantly. We had candles but everything ran out. The city doesn't have electricity, gas or water. The buildings are destroyed."

This is the first day three-year-old Artum has been out since they escaped three weeks ago.

"But he's still afraid," his mother Marina says. "During the night he breaks down. He is screaming and crying at night. But it's much better here than it was in Popasna."

The exodus

The people who have streamed across Ukraine, across Europe, they are from places like Lysychansk, Popasna, Bakhmut. Many more will follow.

In the central square, we came across a group of families who had just got out.

"Popasna city is completely destroyed. We have nowhere to go back. We are homeless and poor people," Olga Bondareva says.

"My mother is 76-years old. We had everything, now we have nothing. Nothing. No buildings, nothing. The city is completely destroyed. The city is flattened. When we were evacuating it was terrifying.

"We want to get as far as possible to raise our grandchild in peace. We suffered a lot. When the siren was on everyone is shaking, our heart is beating fast."

Every story is equally grim. And they come one after another.

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A woman approaches with the story of her missing son. His name is Ruslan and he's 41 years old. She holds a photo of him on her phone.

"He left the bunker to check on the apartment and he disappeared. I have no idea where he is since the 11th of April. I waited and waited for him. I thought he would come. I thought he was hiding somewhere in the basement but he didn't come. Maybe somebody knows something about him?"

Just before the bus pulls away for the journey further west, two sisters embrace.

One will take the bus. The other will stay behind to search for her missing husband. He is somewhere under the rubble in Popasna.

Read more:

Ukraine war: 'We will stay here as long as we can' - ambulance crews defiant as Russian forces almost encircle frontline city - Sky News

Roosevelt Room

10:01 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT:Good morning, everyone. Sorry to keep you waiting a little bit. I had the honor of spending some time with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, whos in town today. And he is meeting with some of my Cabinet members, including the Secretary of Treasury and others.

And we had a a good discussion. I talked about what Im about to tell you about today, as well as he was thanking the American people for their support, understands its significant, and was we talked about keeping everyone together, in terms of Europe, the European Union, and others, in the effort to stop Putins brutality.

But before I head out to the West Coast, I want to quickly update the American people on the latest steps were taking to support the people of Ukraine and to hold Putin accountable for his brutal and bloody war.

Russian forces have retreated from Kyiv, leaving behind them a horrifying evidence. And youve seen it and you reported it your folks. And, by the way, I I dont say this often, but I think we should give enormous credit to the folks in your agencies that are on the ground in Ukraine, in these spots. And theyre theyre really Ive spoken to several of them. Its a we owe them. But uncovering these evidences of their atrocities and war crimes against the Ukrainian people its so clear to the whole world now.

Now theyve launched and refocused their campaign to seize new territory in eastern Ukraine.

And were in a critical window now of time where that theyre going to set the stage for the next phase of this war.

And the United States and our Allies and partners are moving as fast as possible to continue to provide Ukraine the forces that they need the weapons they need excuse me and the equipment they need their forces need to defend their nation.

Last week, I signed an $800 million package of security assistance to Ukraine that included new capabilities like artillery systems and armored personnel carriers equipment that is responsive to Ukraines needs and tailored to support the intensified fighting in the Donbas region, which is a different war than in other places because both topographically its different. Its flat, its not in the mountains, and it requires different kinds of weapons to be more effective.

Today, Im announcing another $800 million to further augment Ukraines ability to fight in the east in the Donbas region.

This package includes heavy artillery weapons dozens of Howitzers and 144,000 rounds of ammunition to go with those Howitzers. It also includes more tactical drones.

In the past two months, weve moved weapons and equipment to Ukraine at record speed.

Weve sent thousands of anti-armor and anti-[air] missile[s], helicopters, drones, grenade launchers, machine guns, rifles, radar systems.More than 50 million rounds of ammunition had already been sent.

The United States alone has provided 10 anti-armor systems for every one Russian tank thats in Ukraine a 10 to 1 ratio.

Were sharing and will continue to share significant, timely intelligence with Ukraine to help defend them against Russian aggression.

And on top of this, these direct contributions from the United States, were facilitating; were the outfit facilitating the significant flow of weapons and systems to Ukraine from other Allies and partners around the world, like the S-300 long-range, anti-aircraft systems that Slovakia recently transferred to Ukraine. We are getting them in there.

We wont always be able to advertise everything we that our partners are doing to support Ukraine in its fight for freedom.

But to modernize Teddy Roosevelts famous advice: Sometimes we will speak softly and carry a large Javelin. Because were sending a lot of those in as well.

You know, but were not were not sitting on the funding that Congress has provided for Ukraine. Were sending it directly to the frontlines of freedom, to the fearless and skilled Ukrainian fighters who are standing in the breach.

You got to admit, you have must be amazed at the courage of this country, the resolve that theyre showing, not just the milit- their military, but the average citizen: men and women, young young men, young women as well.

Its you know, the sustained and coordinated support of the international community, led and facilitated by the United States, has a is a significant reason why Ukraine is able to stop Russia from taking over their country thus far.

Every American taxpayer, every member of our Armed Forces can be proud of the fact that our countrys generosity and the skill and service of our military helped arm and repel Russias aggression in Ukraine, to beat back Putins savagery that tried to seize Ukraines capital and wipe out Ukraines government.

The Battle of Kyiv was a historic victory for the Ukrainians. It was a victory for freedom, won by the Ukrainian people with unprecedented assistance by the United States and our Allies and our partners.

Now now we have to accelerate that assistance package to help prepare Ukraine for Russias offensive thats going to be more limited in terms of geography, but not in terms of brutality not in terms of brutality.

Combined with our recent drawdowns, it will ensure a steady flow of weapons and equipment into Ukraine over the next few weeks.

However, with this latest disbursement, Ive almost exhausted the drawdown authority I have that Congress authorized for Ukraine in a bipartisan spending bill last month.

In order to sustain Ukraine for the duration of this fight, next week Im going to have to be sending to Congress a supplemental budget request to keep weapons and ammunition flowing without interruption to the brave Ukrainian fighters and to continue to deliver economic assistance to the Ukrainian people.

Hope and my hope is and my expectation is Congress would move and act quickly. And I want to thank the Congress Democrats and Republicans for their support for the people of Ukraine.

Our unity at home, our unity with our Allies and partners, and our unity with the Ukrainian people is sending an unmistakable message to Putin: He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine. He will not that will not happen.

In addition to bolstering Ukraines resistance on the battlefield, were also demonstrating our support for the people of Ukraine.

Today, the United States is announcing that we intend to provide an additional $500 million in direct economic assistance to the Ukrainian government.

This brings our total economic support for Ukraine to $1 billion in the past two months.

This is money the government can help use to help stabilize their economy, to support communities that have been devastated by the Russian onslaught, and pay the brave workers that continue to provide essential services to the people of Ukraine.

You know, these past weeks have seen a terrible human cost of Putins ambition for conquest and control. Approximately two thirds two thirds of all Ukrainian children have been displaced from their homes. More than 5 million Ukrainians have fled their country. Its an absolute outrage.The idea this is happening approaching the second quarter of the 21st century is just (sighs).

Last month, when I was in Europe, I announced that the United States would welcome 100,000 Ukrainians so that we share in the responsibility of supporting Ukrainians fleeing Putins war machine.

Weve already welcomed tens of thousands of Ukrainians to the United States.

And today, Im announcing a program, Unite for Ukraine a new program to enable Ukrainians seeking refuge to come directly from Europe to the United States.

This new humanitarian parole program will complement the existing legal pathways available to Ukrainians, including immigrant visas and refugee processing.

It will provide an expedient channel for secure, legal migration from Europe to the United States for Ukrainians who have a U.S. sponsor, such as a family or an NGO.

This program will be fast. It will be streamlined. And it will ensure the United States honors its commitment to go to the Ukrainian people and need not go through our southern border.

Were also continuing to ratchet up the pressure on Putin and further isolate Russia on the world stage.

Yesterday, the Treasury Department rolled out additional measures to crack down on the entities and individuals attempting to evade our unprecedented sanctions not just ours, but throughout the West.

Today, Im announcing that the United States will ban Russian-affiliated ships from our ports, as they did in Europe.

That means no ship no ship that sails under the Russian flag or that is owned or operated by Russian interests will be allowed to dock in a United States port or access our shores. None. None.

This is yet another critical step were taking in concert with our partners in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada and further to deny Russia the benefits of the international economic system that they so enjoyed in the past.

We dont know how long this war will last. But as we approach the two-month mark, heres what we do know:

Putin has failed to achieve his grand ambitions on the battlefield. After weeks of shelling Kyiv, Kyiv still stands.

President Zelenskyy and his democratically elected government still remain in power.

And the Ukrainian armed forces, joined by many brave Ukrainian civilians, have thwarted Russias conquest of their country.

They have been bolstered from day one by an unstinting supply of weapons, ammunition, armor, intelligence from the nations of the free world led by us, the United States.

As Russia continues to grind out the military advances and their military advances and the brutalities against Ukraine, Putin is banking on us losing interest. Thats been my view; youve heard me say this from the beginning. He was counting on NATO, the European Union, our allies in Asia cracking, moving away. Hes betting on Western unity will crack. Hes still betting on that.

And, once again, were going to prove him wrong. We will not lessen our resolve. Were going to continue to stand with the brave and proud people of Ukraine. We will never fail in our determination to defend freedom and oppose tyranny. Its as simple as that.

So, again, I want to thank the American people thank the American people for their support of the Ukrainian people. This is our this is our responsibility, it seems to me, and weve been able to hold the whole world together in this effort.

So, thank you very much. Thank you.

Q Mr. President

THE PRESIDENT: Im going to take just one or two questions. Ive got a plane to catch.

Q What does what does Putin claiming control over Mariupol mean? Is that how significant is that?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, first of all, its questionable whether he does control Mariupol. One thing for sure we know about Mariupol: He should allow humanitarian corridors to let people on that steel mill and other places that are buried under rubble to get out to get out. Thats what any, any, any head of state would do in such a circumstance.

And so, there is no evidence yet that Mariupol has completely fallen.

Q Mr. President, on Title 42, sir, are you considering delaying lifting Title 42?

THE PRESIDENT: No. What Im considering is continuing to hear from my my

Well, first of all, theres going to be an appeal by the Justice Department because, as a matter of principle, we want to be able to be in a position where if, in fact, it is strongly concluded by the scientists that we need Title 42, that we be able to do that.

But there has been no decision on extending Title 42.

Thank you.

Q Mr. President, how long can the U.S. maintain the level and pace of this military support for Ukraine?

THE PRESIDENT: I well, we have the capacity to do this for a long time. The question is: Are we going to continue to maintain the support of the international community and keep the pressure on Putin to prevent him from overrunning the country? Number one. And, number two, make sure we continue to maintain the economic sanctions, which, over time and were beginning to see it are devastating their economy and their ability to move forward.

So, the most important thing right now is maintain the unity. So far, so good.

Thank you very much.

Q How much money are you going to ask for in the supplemental? How much money in the supplemental, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: The answer thats being decided now. And Im asking the Defense Department to put together what they think we need.

Thank you.

10:14 A.M. EDT

Excerpt from:

Remarks By President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine - The White House

A member of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces stands on a damaged Russian tank on the outskirts of Nova Basan village in Ukraine on April 01, 2022. Russia's invasion on Feb. 24 coincided with what's known locally as the "muddy road season," or "Rasputitsa" in Russian.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, its military commanders were widely seen to have discounted one very unconventional but effective "weapon" in Ukraine's arsenal: its infamous muddy season.

The timing of Russia's invasion, which began on Feb. 24, coincided with what is known locally as the "muddy road season," or "Rasputitsa" in Russian. It's a phenomenon that takes place twice a year, first in spring when the winter freeze subsides and the country's terrain and unpaved roads become virtually unpassable as they turn to mud and then in the fall, when there can be heavy rain.

The mud is seen by military experts to have helped to slow Russia's advance in parts of the country, particularly the north. Images and video circulating online have shown Russian tanks, trucks and other armored vehicles stuck and abandoned on muddy roads or fields in Ukraine.

That's prompted some disbelief among Russia analysts and military experts, who said Russia's military commanders should have been better prepared for conditions on the ground, and able to avoid the quagmire caused by Ukraine's muddy spring terrain.

It's a phenomenon familiar in the history books: Napoleon Bonaparte'sinvasion of Russia in 1812 was famously slowed by the mud, as were Hitler's armies, which invaded the then-Soviet Union in 1941 and encountered the same logistical problems posed by the mud and inhospitable terrain that Russian troops have faced in the last few weeks.

A photo taken in the spring of 1942 of German army vehicles on muddy terrain in Ukraine, then a part of the Soviet Union.

Ullstein Bild | Ullstein Bild | Getty Images

Russia's military should've known better what conditions their forces would face, experts said.

"Ukrainian mud and what is known in Russian as 'rasputitsa' is the period after the winter where you get impassable roads ... this has been known about for hundreds of years, literally Napoleon had this problem. So yes, it is a tactical feature that is advantageous for the Ukrainians and it was particularly important in the north where it is a lot more wooded," Maximilian Hess, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC.

It was initially believed that Russia would achieve a quick victory in Ukraine. But the country faced strong resistance from Ukrainian forces, which Western allies have helped to equip with weaponry.

Prior to the invasion, Russia had amassed over 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine and had carried out military drills with its ally Belarus, which lies to the north of Ukraine. But Moscow had insisted repeatedly that it had no plans to invade.

Russian and Belarusian armed forces conduct joint military drills on Feb. 12, 2022. Despite such military exercises ahead of the invasion, military analysts have said the first phase of the war showed a lack of planning, preparedness and tactical skill among Russia's military command and soldiers, many of whom are conscripts.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Despite the military exercises ahead of the invasion, military analysts have said the first phase of the war which has seen Russia gain ground in the south and east of the country but fail to make strides in the north, with its forces now pulled back and concentrating on eastern Ukraine showed a lack of planning, preparedness and tactical skill among its military command and soldiers, many of whom are conscripts.

Hess said just Russia's inability to deal with Ukraine's muddy season "shows real issues with the professionalism of the military."

"It raises real questions for me ... the Russians have been doing these [military] drills and practicing this foreign invasion for almost a decade now and they still didn't think, or didn't have enough coordination, to put the right units in the right places, and to move in the right way to best deal with something [the mud] that has literally been known to be a problem for 300 years."

U.S. intelligence suggested that Russia had wished to invade Ukraine earlier in the year but had postponed its offensive at the behest of China so it would not overshadow the Beijing Winter Olympics that ended on Feb. 20.

Ukrainian soldiers examine a seized Russian tank at a woodland in Irpin, Ukraine, on April 01, 2022.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the U.K. defense think tank RUSI, told CNBC that most of Russia's military vehicles would have been able to cope with the mud in Ukraine, but problems had arisen from multiple vehicles using the same tracks, a foreseeable problem for any military commander with a basic understanding of "terramechanics" or "the interaction of soil with off road vehicles."

"A lot of their vehicles would be fine moving through mud, providing that they didn't repeatedly drive through the same track," he said.

"But I would argue that other things have limited their maneuver more in terms of their reliance on railheads and roads for their logistics," he said, adding that the size of Ukraine also posed an extra challenge to Russia's war machine, particularly for units farther away from Russia, such as those in northern Ukraine.

Many of these units have since beaten a tactical retreat to focus on eastern and southern regions, where the second phase of the war is currently playing out in the Donbas and along the Black Sea.

Another Russian army tank recaptured by the Ukrainian army Borodyanka city near Kyiv, Ukraine, in early April.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

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How Ukraine's mud became a secret weapon in its defense against Russia - CNBC