Daily Archives: March 27, 2022

Prince William hints that royals will not stand in way of Bahamas becoming republic – New York Post

Posted: March 27, 2022 at 10:02 pm

Prince William hinted that the British royal family would support the Bahamas decisions about its future on the third stop of a Caribbean tour that has been marred by protests over Britains colonial past in the region.

We support with pride and respect decisions about your future, the Duke of Cambridge said at an official reception in Nassau on Friday, hosted by the islands governor-general. Relationships evolve. Friendship endures.

Prince William, the second in line to the throne, has been on a week-long tour of Caribbean Commonwealth countries with his wife Kate Middleton in honor of his grandmother Queen Elizabeths Platinum Jubilee.

Protestors have dubbed the royals Caribbean trip the colonial tour, with demonstrators demanding that the royal family apologize for its role in the slave trade that saw millions of African slaves being shipped to the region to work under inhumane conditions.

In Jamaica on Tuesday, protestors outside the British High Commission in Kingston demanded that the British monarchy pay reparations for its role in the slave trade, according to reports.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness told Prince William that his country was moving on in remarks that suggested the country would go the way of Barbados, which became a republic last year and removed the Queen as its head of state.

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Hanna-Martin tells royals The Bahamas will be victorious on all fronts – EyeWitness News

Posted: at 10:02 pm

NASSAU, BAHAMAS Minister of Education and Technical and Vocation Training Glenys Hanna-Martin said yesterday that the Bahamian peoples resilience and dogged determination has allowed the nation and its people to endure the painful ravages of history.

However, she said it is that invincible resolve that will see The Bahamas, through Gods grace, victorious all on fronts, in every way.

Hanna-Martin was addressing scores of students at Sybil Strachan Primary School and the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Prince William and Kate Middleton, who toured the school as day two of the visit to The Bahamas to mark the Queens Platinum Jubilee.

Numerous members of the Davis Cabinet were also in attendance.

[BIS]The minister said that during debate in Parliament this week on an amendment to the National Heroes Act, there was bipartisan support of the necessity to more aggressively and purposefully and permanently memorialize and monumentalize those persons who have been so pivotal to the formation of our national identity and our unified progress as a Bahamian people.

She continued: People such as our great leaders, who throughout the course of history, fought for our freedom from oppression and tyranny; those who extended our unique cultural voice; those who dedicated their lives to the full progress of our people in every sphere of existence

Quoting Marcus Garvey, Hanna-Martin said a people without knowledge of their past history, origin and culture is like a tree without roots.

It is important to note that while the journey of our people has been most difficult, we celebrate that it has been and continues to be the strength, the resilience, and the excellence and dogged determination of successive generations which has allowed us to endure the painful ravages of history, but to emerge as a new people, crafting our own sacred destiny.

Key to this emergence is the education of our people.

And while pre-1967 access to education for the masses was restricted and in most instances, inaccessible, where there being only one public secondary school in the country to service the entire population, today, there is universal free access to education at scores of school nationwide.

She continued: As I have stated, our journey as a people has not been without difficulty or challenge, but or resolve is invincible, and with Gods grace we will be victorious all on fronts, in every way.

Hanna-Martin said as the royals conclude their tour of New Providence and travel to Abaco and Grand Bahama, the couple will get a glimpse of The Bahamas rich culture and witness the indomitable spirit of its people.

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A ROYAL NO: Rev. Campbell says royal visit sets The Bahamas back 100 years – EyeWitness News

Posted: at 10:02 pm

NASSAU, BAHAMAS The royal visit slated for next week sends sets The Bahamas back 100 years, Reverend Sebastian Campbell said yesterday.

The official royal visit, slated for March 24-26, will see the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge represent Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, as part of celebrations to mark her Platinum Jubilee.

That The Bahamas is even paying for this quote on quote royal visit; I am very sad about that and I dont think that is the right direction this country should be going in, he told Eyewitness News, when contacted for comment.

We are still a long shot from taking this country to where it ought to be and that is a republic following such countries such as Barbados [Dominica, Guyana, Trinidad etc]

Having a royal visit will only put us back probably another 100 years in mire of this colonial mindset.

He continued: I think the time is long overdue; and continuing to bring these colonial figures into a country will continue to play with the minds of our people that this is where we ought to be; this is where we ought to stay.

I call on the Davis-led government to think about what we are doing to play with peoples minds and call them to build on the progress started by people like Sir Lynden Pindling, Arthur Hanna, Paul Adderley etc.

I pray God that this will be the last one that we see, the last colonial visit of these colonial figures.

This should not turn into a kind of bitter personal thing against these two individuals; we should be polite and welcoming given the constitutional position. But at the same time, those who are in favor of changing the constitutional position should continue to work and lets move toward that position if thats what the Bahamian people want Fred Mitchell

Campbell, who chairs the National Heroes Committee, said a cross-section of Bahamians fought for a long time to abolish colonial orders in The Bahamas.

He said he thought those orders would become a thing of the past when The Bahamas implemented national orders under the Christie administration.

But Queens orders and honors continued under the last administration.

The past government brought on colonial orders competing with the national orders and we had thought that the time for colonial orders had gone, Campbell said.

Unfortunately, Minnis-led government justified the colonial orders being offered at the same time as the national orders, and that would cause Bahamians always to think of foreign being better than that which is local.

Campbell pointed out that prominent figures such as Foreign Affairs Minister Fred Mitchell has been supportive of The Bahamas becoming a republic.

He called on parliamentarians to publicly express their view on the colonial mentality that we have in our country and how many of them support the visit of the colonial figures in the next day or two.

When contacted, Mitchell said as a minister of the government he could not offer a view on the visit other than what has been expressed historically and my position has not changed.

In December 2021, Mitchell said he was committed to seeing The Bahamas become a republic.

Yesterday, Mitchell said given The Bahamas constitutional position, the visit consists with that.

The minister said there was no complaint about the cost of the visit as if you want a monarchy, then this is what a monarchy costs, so that is the way it is.

But he encouraged activists to continue work to see constitutional changes.

This should not turn into a kind of bitter personal thing against these two individuals; we should be polite and welcoming given the constitutional position, Mitchell said.

But at the same time, those who are in favor of changing the constitutional position should continue to work and lets move toward that position if thats what the Bahamian people want.

[PICTURE: Rebecca English]In a statement last night, the government said it looks forward to the visit.

It said the itinerary for the visit was designed to achieve specific objectives and taken advantage of the opportunity to shift the way in which we wish to be seen on the world stage, given the likely international press.

Prince William and Kate Middleton will visit New Providence, Grand Bahama and Abaco with a series of events and showcases, including a taste of The Bahamas cultural event that will take place in Parliament Square.

The royals touched down in Belize on Saturday, but not without some protest forcing changes to their schedule.

According to Reuters, an event planned on the eve of the Duke and Duchess departure was scraped after a few dozen villagers staged a protest.

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The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge visit Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas – The Royal Family

Posted: at 10:01 pm

About the tour

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are undertaking anofficial visitto the Realms of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas on behalf of Her Majesty The Queen on the occasion of the Platinum Jubilee.

The visit is taking placebetween Saturday 19th March and Saturday 26th March, beginningin Belize where Their Royal Highnesses will visit historic Mayan sites and celebrate the rich culture of the Garifuna community as well as exploring the countrys biodiversity.

The Duke and Duchess will then travel to Jamaica where their visit will include engaging with the Jamaican Defence Force and celebrating the seminal legacy of Bob Marley and other ground-breaking Jamaican musicians alongside some of tomorrows stars.

The Duke and Duchess visit will end in The Bahamas where they will spend time with communities across a number of islands and experience a world famous junkanoo parade. The response to COVID-19 will also feature in The Duke and Duchess programme.

Their Royal Highnesses are keen to understand more about the impact that the pandemic has had across the Caribbean, and how communities have pulled together to respond to the challenges they have faced. Throughout their visit, The Duke and Duchess will take the opportunity to commemorate Her Majestys Platinum Jubilee.

On arrival in Belize, The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge were welcomed to the country by the Governor General and government officials.

Their Royal Highnesses then travelled to Belize City for a meeting withPrime Minister Johnny Briceoand his wife, Rossana.

On the second day of the tour, The Duke and Duchess visited a cacao producer to learn more about Belizes world-famous Maya chocolate making.

Their Royal Highnesses then travelledto Hopkins, a small village on the coast which is considered the cultural centre of the Garifuna community in Belize.

Acknowledging Belizes world-famous marine environment, The Duke and Duchess also spenttime learning from conservation specialists about marine protection and the incredible restoration efforts of Belizes precious barrier reef being led by communities across the country.

On their second full day in Belize, The Duke and Duchess visitedCaracol an ancient Mayan archaeological site deep in the Chiquibul Forest.

Their Royal Highnesses learnt about the history of the site during their tour and has the chance to take in the incredible Caana or sky palace which remains the tallest man-made structure in Belize to this day.

The Duke then took a trip trip down memory lane when he and The Duchess spenttime with BATSUB (British Army Training Support Unit) in the jungle. This is a military unit which delivers tropical environment training to troops from the UK and international partners.

In 2000, His Royal Highness spent a period of time with BATSUB under the guidance of the Welsh Guards.

During their time with BATSUB, The Duke and Duchess heardabout the close cooperation between the British Army, and conservation organisations such as Friends for Conservation and Development working to protect the Chiquibul Forest, which is part of The Queens Commonwealth Canopy.

To end the day, Their Royal Highnesses attendeda reception hosted by the Governor General of Belize at the Mayan ruins at Cahal Pech, near San Ignacio.

This special reception was held in celebration of The Queens Platinum Jubilee and broughttogether community leaders, well-known Belizeans and members of the Government.

The following morning, The Duke and Duchessbid farewell to Belize during the official departure ceremony at the Philip S. W. Goldson Airport as they headed to Jamaica for the next leg of their tour.

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge received an official welcome to Jamaica atNorman Manley International Airport, before travelling to the King's House, the residence of the Governor General, for a meeting.

Their Royal Highnesses then wentto Trench Town, the birthplace of reggae music in the heart of Kingston. Here they joined some young football players -including the winners of Jamaicas famous Manning Cup on a local football pitch.

There was also some well known figures insport, including England footballer Raheem Sterling, who was born in Jamaica, and the Jamaican Bobsleigh team who recently competed at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

The Duke and Duchess then visitedthe Trench Town Culture Yard Museum where Bob Marley used to live and interact with other iconic musicians. Here they learntabout the areas social history, its extraordinary global contribution to music, and attendeda celebration of reggae music.

On their second day on the country, Their Royal Highnesses had an official meeting with the Jamaican Prime Minister, Andrew Holness.

They then travelled toShortwood Teachers College to meet students who are training to become early childhood education practitioners.

Over recent years, The Duchess has focused her work to elevate the importance of early childhood development, and the College is a recognised exemplar in its field, conducting research in early childhood education and care while also offering professional development programmes to the early childhood sector.

The Duke and Duchess thenvisited Spanish Town Hospital where they met doctors, nurses and other members of staff to hear about their experiences as part of the frontline response to COVID-19 in Jamaica.

Next, Their Royal Highnessestravelled to Flankers, near Montego Bay to learn about how the Jamaica Defence Force is supporting at-risk young men in vulnerable communities by providing training in driving trucks and other heavy-duty vehicles, in turn supporting them into employment.

To finish the day, The Duke and Duchess then attended a dinner hosted by the Governor General of Jamaica.

On their final morning in Jamaica, Their Royal Highnesses attended the inaugural Commissioning Parade for service personnel from across the Caribbean who have recently completed the Caribbean Military Academys Officer Training Programme.

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge were greeted in The Bahamas with an official arrival atLynden Pindling International Airport.

Their Royal Highnesses then travelled toNassau for a meeting with the Prime Minister of The Bahamas.

On their first full day in The Bahamas, The Duke and Duchess started the day with avisit to Sybil Strachan Primary School in Nassau where they will drop in on a class to meet pupils and staff, to hear moreabout the impact that COVID-19 on schools.

Next, Their Royal Highnesses spent time with key workers and frontline staff in an informal gathering in the Garden of Remembrance in Nassau. Here they heardabout Bahamians experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how people came together to protect the vulnerable.

The Duke and Duchess also got the chance to see a traditional Bahamian Jankadoo celebration.

Their Royak Highnesses then tookpart in The Bahamas Platinum Jubilee Sailing Regatta.Sailing regattas were one of the many things that were put on pause during the pandemic, and this event celebrated the return of sloop sailing races to The Bahamas.

The event also provideda nod to The Duke of Edinburgh, who was Honorary Commodore, before becoming Honorary Life Member of the Royal Nassau Sailing Club.

The day finished with areception hosted by the Governor General, during which The Duke and Duchess had theopportunity to meet community leaders and notable people from across The Bahamas many islands.

On their final day in The Bahamas, The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge spent time in Abaco and Grand Bahama, learning about the impact of Hurricane Dorian and the regeneration work that has followed - as well as enjoying some some Bahamian cuisine at a Fish Fry:

On the final day of their tour, The Duke and Duchess spent time learning about the devastating impact of Hurricane Dorian, which hit in September 2019, and the reconstruction efforts that have followed.

Firstly, theytravelled to Abaco a chain of islands and barrier cays in the northern part of the country. It was one of the parts of the country that was hit hardest by Dorian, with winds of 185mph leaving devastation in their wake.

Staring the day atDaystar Evangelical Church, Their Royal Highnesses met people and families from across the community to hear first-hand what it was like to be on the island at the point the hurricane hit, and how people have come together to support each other during an incredibly difficult time.

Next on Abaco, The Duke and Duchess celebrated the regeneration work and the return of tourists to the island as they attended a Fish Fry a quintessentially Bahamian culinary gathering place which is found on every island in The Bahamas.

Their Royal Highnesses then travelled from Abaco to Grand Bahama, where they visited the Grand Bahama Childrens Home which provides a loving home environment to vulnerable children who are not able to live with their families.

Since it was established in 1977 by the local community, the Home has cared for over 900 children.

The final engagement of The Royal Highnesses tour was with a visit to the 2021 Earthshot Prize Winner, Coral Vita.

Coral Vita was the inaugural winner of the Revive Our Oceans Earthshot in recognition of their ground-breaking work to give new life to dying coral reefs.

Their Royal Highnesses had a tour of Coral Vitas home on Grand Bahama by co-founder Sam Teicher, seeing for themselves how the coral is grown and hear more about Coral Vitas ambitious plans to preserve threatened ecosystems globally for the future, which are being supported and scaled with thanks to support from The Earthshot Prize.

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For a Motivational Speaker, It Took Years to Feel Worthy of His Love – The New York Times

Posted: at 10:01 pm

While Mr. Hall had apprehensions about starting a conversation with her, Ms. Nichols, who by then had shared her story of triumph over poverty, discrimination and single motherhood with millions, had certain insecurities that made her uninterested in pursuing him.

The mother of a then-teenage son, Jelani, who is now 27, Ms. Nichols had never been married. She hadnt entirely ruled out the possibility of a relationship, but her heart had been broken more than once in the past. At the time, she was also 100 pounds overweight, she said.

Mr. Hall, on the other hand, seemed like a perfect specimen. From the time he graduated from Castleton University in Vermont in 1994, he had worked as a broadcaster in his native Bahamas, where he is currently an anchor at Cable Bahamas in Nassau. He had also been a bodybuilder.

He was this tall, deliciously dark and handsome man, Ms. Nichols said. And I was 224 pounds.

The moment I left him, I began to tell myself, Hes not real, she added.

Down a self-preserving rabbit hole she went. Though Mr. Hall had told her when they met that he had a son from a previous marriage, which ended in divorce in 2009, and was expecting a child from another relationship, which had also since ended, Ms. Nichols concocted a likelier scenario.

He didnt have two children, he had nine, and seven of them were unclaimed, she recalled telling herself. He was not single, he was married and had a girlfriend and wanted me to be his second girlfriend.

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Russian Soldiers Suffering Frostbite as Ukraine Invasion …

Posted: at 9:59 pm

Russian troops in Ukraine have been suffering from frostbite because of a lack of cold-weather equipment, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

A Pentagon official told reporters on Tuesday morning that the U.S. had received evidence of frostbite among the Russian servicemen, who lacked appropriate gear.

"Even in terms of personal equipment for some of their troops, they're having trouble and we've picked up indications that some troops have suffered and [have been] taken out of the fight because of frostbite," the senior official said.

Russian troops have faced unexpectedly cold temperatures in Ukraine, which on occasion have dipped below freezing point.

Russian troops, the Pentagon official added, are also suffering food shortages and logistics challenges, including a lack of guided munitions.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon assessed that Russia has lost ten percent of its military force in Ukraine, while U.S. estimates released last week stated that between 6,000 and 7,000 soldiers had been killed since the beginning of the invasion.

An even higher number of casualties was suggested on Monday when newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda put Russia's death toll in Ukraine at almost 10,000. The information was later deleted from the newspaper's website.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has so far admitted to less than 500 service personnel dying in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion.

That the invasion of Ukraine isn't going as smoothly and quickly as the Kremlin might have originally expected is clear from footage and reports emerging from the war zone, showing fallen soldiers and abandoned tanks.

At a briefing on Tuesday, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said there are indications that morale is a growing problem for Russia's military.

On March 18, the UK's Defense Ministry announced that the Russian invasion of Ukraine "has largely stalled on all fronts," while U.S. officials have declared that Ukrainian troops are now going on the offensive and regaining lost territories.

U.S. officials have warned that Russia might resort to using biological and chemical weapons to avoid a stalemate in Ukraine but a Pentagon official, talking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that no evidence that Russia is moving toward using such weapons had been found.

In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied that Russia's campaign is stalling. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet achieved his goals in Ukraine, but the "special military operation that is going on, it's going on according to plan."

He said the alleged low morale of the Russian forces is a creation of Western media.

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Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (March 27) – NPR

Posted: at 9:59 pm

A menorah monument, located at the entrance of the Drobitsky Yar Holocaust memorial complex on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv, is pictured on Sunday, a day after it was wrecked in a Russian shelling. Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A menorah monument, located at the entrance of the Drobitsky Yar Holocaust memorial complex on the eastern outskirts of Kharkiv, is pictured on Sunday, a day after it was wrecked in a Russian shelling.

As Sunday draws to an end in Kyiv and in Moscow, here are the key developments of the day:

Ukraine called on the West to send tanks and planes to support the fight against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed the U.S. and other Western allies for what he called a "ping-pong about who and how should hand over jets" as Ukraine fends off Russia's deadly missile attacks. A day earlier, Russians carried out multiple attacks on the western city of Lviv, reportedly leaving at least five people wounded.

Two humanitarian routes opened, purportedly allowing civilians to flee some of Ukraine's hardest-hit areas, including the besieged city of Mariupol, according to Ukraine's deputy prime minister.

U.S. officials continued to clarify President Biden's words that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power." Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought to downplay remarks made by Biden a day earlier, telling reporters in Jerusalem that the U.S. has no plans to unseat the Russian leader.

The Ukraine separatist region of Luhansk will hold a vote to join Russia. The head of the so-called Luhansk People's Republic one of two breakaway Ukrainian regions that Russia has supported militarily since 2014 expects local residents will decide to join Russia in an annexation referendum he says will happen soon.

Russian forces allegedly damaged another Holocaust memorial in Ukraine. Russian invaders fired on Drobitsky Yar, a memorial site outside of Kharkiv, said Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. Some 15,000 Jewish people were killed there during the Holocaust.

Russia's attack on Ukraine has put a focus on the North Atlantic alliance. Here's what to know about NATO.

Social media is shaping and distorting our understanding of the war in Ukraine.

The war has displaced millions in Ukraine. Photos show the reality of the crisis for civilians in the region.

Photographers have been documenting American support for Ukraine over the last month.

Ukrainian women are volunteering to fight. History shows they always have.

You can read more news from Sunday here, as well as more in-depth reporting and daily recaps here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR's State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

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Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 33 of the Russian invasion – The Guardian

Posted: at 9:59 pm

US president Joe Biden has denied he is calling for regime change in Russia, after he said during a visit to Poland that Putin cannot remain in power. When asked by a reporter if he wanted to see Russian president Vladimir Putin removed from office he said no. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, had already distanced himself from Bidens comments, while the UK cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi distanced the UK government from his remarks.

Representatives from Russia and Ukraine will meet this week for a new round of talks aimed at ending the war. Ukraine said the two sides would meet in Turkey on Monday.

Ukraines president Volodymyr Zelenskiy used a video interview with independent Russian media outlets to signal his willingness to discuss having Ukraine adopt a neutral status, and also make compromises about the status of the eastern Donbas region, in order to secure a peace agreement with Russia. But he said he was not willing to discuss Ukrainian demilitarisation, and that Ukrainians would need to vote in a referendum to approve their country adopting a neutral status.

The UK Ministry of Defence said Russia is effectively isolating Ukraine from international maritime trade, in an update late Sunday. It also said Russian naval forces were continuing to conduct sporadic missile strikes against targets across Ukraine.

Russias communications and internet regulator said in a public statement it would investigate the outlets that interviewed Zelenskiy, and has told them not to distribute the interview.

In a separate late-night video, Zelenskiy promised to work this week for new sanctions against Russia and spoke of the impending new round negotiations, saying we are looking for peace without delay.

Putin is seeking to split Ukraine into two, emulating the postwar division between North and South Korea, Ukraines military intelligence chief has said. In comments that raise the prospect of a long and bitter frozen conflict, General Kyrylo Budanov, warned of bloody guerrilla warfare.

Kyivs mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said on Telegram that online schooling would restart in the capital this week.

The French foreign minister said on Sunday there would be collective guilt if nothing was done to help civilians in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city besieged by Russian forces.

The UK governments top legal adviser has appointed a war crimes lawyer to advise Ukraine on the Russian invasion. The attorney general, Suella Braverman, announced on Sunday that Sir Howard Morrison QC would act as an independent adviser to the Ukrainian prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, Press Association reported.

Despite reports that Zelenskiy had been pushing to speak on video during the Academy Awards ceremony in Los Angeles tonight, and some statements of support from celebrities in his favour, it was not clear if the Academy had agreed, or if it would opt instead for watered-down references to the conflict and vague statements of support. There were signs of support for Ukraine on the Oscars red carpet, with stars such as Jamie Lee Curtis wearing blue and yellow ribbons.

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Is the Ukraine war weakening Putins position in Russia? – Al Jazeera English

Posted: at 9:59 pm

Despite ongoing peace talks, an end to Russias war on Ukraine appears nowhere in sight.

And as Ukrainian cities are being attacked, a quieter pressure is growing in Russia, which is increasingly isolated on the international stage.

Punishing sanctions are taking effect and dissent which authorities are determined to crush is rising, reportedly even in the Kremlin.

As the war rumbles on, observers are asking: is Vladimir Putins position shaking?

The Russian president enjoys a solid level of support among legislators, as evidenced by a recent vote days before the war began to recognise the separatist, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics of Ukraine.

Of 450 members of the Duma, 351 backed the move, in line with Putins approval.

At the same time, Putins United Russia party has been accused of vote-rigging, keeping him in power for more than 20 years.

However, some observers have suggested that with sanctions hitting the economy hard, a push to remove Putin from power may gather pace.

Volodymyr Ishchenko, a Ukrainian sociologist who has studied revolutions in the post-Soviet arena, disagrees.

I dont think that the revolution is the likeliest outcome of the sanctions, he told Al Jazeera, arguing that increased grievances are not enough to start a revolt.

Rather, a split among the elites, unity of the opposition, coordination and mobilisation structures were needed.

In the early 20th century, the Russian Empire went through two revolutions linked with unpopular wars one in 1905 after the humiliating defeat in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05, and another in 1917 during World War I.

After the Soviet collapse, other newly-independent republics went through a string of popular uprisings, with governments overthrown in Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova. There were three revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and three more in Ukraine.

Putin has spent a large part of the past two decades preparing himself against a so-called colour revolution such as the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine, which he thought to be planned from Washington.

This includes marginalising opposition figures such as the now-jailed Alexey Navalny, whose political movement has been outlawed but continues to operate and is helping organise the protests.

As for the opposition, its in a bad shape, Ishchenko said. Navalnys movement is repressed. Besides, the opposition is split by the war. The Communists and many other parties who could ally with the opposition strongly support the war now.

Ishchenko told Al Jazeera that the exodus of mostly anti-war Russians estimated to be more than 200,000 people since February has made mass revolt even more unlikely.

Such a scenario would require exiles to keep effective contact with their homeland, which may prove difficult as travel is restricted and Russians without VPNs are blocked from social media.

The palace coup is more likely than a revolution now. Although, I am not sure that a possible elite conspiracy against Putin would make a move before a major defeat in Ukraine.

So, in the end, the balance of forces on Ukrainian battlefields would determine the possibility of either a coup, or revolution, or the survival and consolidation of Putins regime. Not the other way around.

If not a mass uprising, perhaps the oligarchs and officials in Putins inner circle, frustrated at the sanctions and unable to enjoy their yacht cruises off the south of France, may try to unseat the president.

On March 1, the independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova said sources within the Russian elite close to Putin had told her that they were as shocked at the start of the war as everyone else, with one describing the situation as a clusterf**k.

The sources reportedly claimed that Putin has grown out of touch with reality over the past two years, isolating himself in a bunker and only meeting face-to-face with his closest confidants.

But after that initial shock, Russian elites are accepting the new reality, Rustamova, who has worked for the BBC Russian service and independent outlets TV Rain and Meduza, told Al Jazeera.

Many have now made their peace with it, she said. Theres a sense that theres nothing that can be done, and until this ends they need to survive somehow. They cant leave, because if you resign or refuse to work during wartime, youll be a traitor, and everyone knows what Putin does to traitors.

After coming to power, Putin quickly reined in the oligarchs, who had dominated Russian business, media and politics in the 1990s. He called the countrys top tycoons to a meeting and warned them to stay out of politics.

Those who did not comply, such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Boris Berezovsky, were either imprisoned, forced to leave, or both. Those who made their fortunes in the 1990s and were allowed to stay largely accepted the status quo. They have little sway over the Kremlin.

While its logical to expect an anti-war position from the liberal side of the Russian elite, Putin has thoroughly cleansed them over the years and keeps them on a tight leash, and they certainly wont step forward, Rustamova said.

Putin, an ex-KGB officer, instead surrounded himself with security officials and installed loyalists in key positions, such as Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard tasked with domestic security. But he has made sure none of these so-called siloviki, or men of force, gets too powerful: the Federal Security Service (FSB) and military directorate (GRU) handle intelligence, while the Federal Protection Service are the presidents bodyguards.

According to political scientist and Russian armed forces expert Pavel Luzin, There is a kind of political sect that consists of some generals and other high-ranking officers around Putin and they believe in the restoration of the Russian Empire it is a type of religion for them.

Then, there are acting and former law enforcement officers who were engaged in mid-level business within the state-owned and formally private corporations before the Russian aggression, and they are losing almost everything today; there are the armed forces, who were not happy about the aggression because they understood the awful consequences; and the police, who do not have much influence.

He said that the Kremlin was scared of the army and the police, and does not trust either one.

In this way, I dont wait for Putins forced departure within the current circumstances. The situation may change in case of a further escalation.

The siloviki may also be afraid of catching the blame if the war goes horribly wrong.

There have been unconfirmed reports that Colonel General Sergei Beseda of the FSB has been placed under house arrest after apparently telling Putin that the war in Ukraine would be a quick victory. Speculation was also rising over Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had not been seen in public for almost two weeks. As rumours swelled, he was shown on state media again on Thursday attending a video meeting of officials, including Putin.

But aside from people power, a businessmans revolt or a military coup detat, Luzin suggested a fourth possibility: as Russias social and fiscal woes grow as a result of the war, local government and bureaucrats, previously sidelined, will be left to pick up the slack while Putin allegedly sits in his bunker, detached from the world.

Briefly speaking, Putin has distanced himself from the governance. In this way, the bureaucracy may start to act without Putin, just ignoring him, Luzin said. If this type of action will be realised, the results will change the Russian political regime even without any coup.

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Is the Ukraine war weakening Putins position in Russia? - Al Jazeera English

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Russia May Nationalize Carmakers’ Assets amid Ukraine Invasion – Car and Driver

Posted: at 9:59 pm

Russias invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt life well outside the active fighting areas. In the automotive world, European automakers have been forced to reduce production or even delay new models because, as weve all learned so well in the past two years, functioning supply chains are not exactly a given.

Oliver Killig/VW

When the invasion started, the fact that Ukraine supplies a large amount of wiring harnesses to European automakers suddenly became important. Volkswagen said this week that it will push back the launch of the ID.5 by a month because it cannot get enough harnesses to send demonstration vehicles to dealers in Germany. The ID.5 is an SUV "coupe" version of the ID.4 and was supposed to launch in Europe in April. The launch is now scheduled to happen in the first week of May, a VW spokesperson told Automotive News. That's if enough wiring harnesses can be acquired.

Automakers with partnerships or assets in Russia are being massively affected as well, most notably Renault. AvtoVaz is the largest automaker in Russia, but its controlled by French carmaker Renault, which has a 69 percent stake. This week, after plenty of outside pressure, Renault decided to suspend its operations in Russia, saying on Twitter that it is acting responsibly towards our 45,000 employees in the country and that the company has already implemented the necessary measures to comply with international sanctions before the suspension started.

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Lada was forced to stop building cars earlier this month, a big step for a brand that sold 21 percent of all new vehicles in Russia in 2021. With Renault having taken at least the first step towards exiting the company, it brings up a larger question of what happens next. President Vladimir Putin is considering nationalizing the manufacturing plants and other assets global automakers have in Russia, as Automotive News and others have reported. Aside from Renault, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Ford and Mercedes-Benz would be the automakers most affected by any move to nationalize assets, a move sometimes described by Russian government officials as external administration.

"If foreign owners close the company unreasonably, then in such cases the government proposes to introduce external administration," Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told CNN earlier this month. "Depending on the decision of the owner, it will determine the future fate of the enterprise."

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Russia May Nationalize Carmakers' Assets amid Ukraine Invasion - Car and Driver

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