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Daily Archives: February 26, 2022
Russia is gambling that it will withstand the US and NATO’s response to its invasion of Ukraine – USAPP American Politics and Policy (blog)
Posted: February 26, 2022 at 10:48 am
This morning we woke up to a new era in world politics. For the first time since World War II, two European nations are in a conventional war that is likely to affect not only European security, but also great power politics between the US, Russia, and China. Professor Peter Trubowitz writes that over the next 48 to 72 hours, the focus will be on what the West does in response to the Russian invasion, and on how the military situation unfolds in Ukraine. The stakes are high all around.
I think we are likely to see three things in the coming days: tougher Western economic sanctions; calls for increased deployments of NATO battle groups to the Baltic states; and increased domestic pressure in the US and elsewhere to supply the Ukrainians with advanced weapons.
The purpose of the sanctions, which are likely to target many Russian banks and include export restrictions on advanced technology to Russia, will be to try to raise the costs of aggression to Putin and his domestic political allies. Similar sanctions could be imposed on Belarus for allowing itself to be used as a staging ground and if news reports are correct, participating in the invasion.
Potentially deploying additional troops to the Baltic states would be a way to reassure the Baltic countries that their NATO allies have their back, and to deter any possible territorial designs Putin might be entertaining beyond Ukraine.
Supplying additional weapons to the Ukrainians would let Putin know that while the West is not willing to intervene militarily to defend Kyiv, it will do what it can to make Russia pay a price in blood and treasure for its action in Ukraine.
How much of an impact any or all of this would have on Putin is unclear. Presumably, Putin has factored much of this into his decision to invade Ukraine. Of course, he may have miscalculated.
Judging from Putins speech earlier today, the immediate goal appears to bring down the President Volodymyr Zelenskyys government, install a puppet regime, and turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus. Beyond that, Putin likely sees this as a way to frighten the Baltic states and test NATOs resolve and unity.
Putin is a gambler, and he seems to be gambling that he can quickly achieve whatever his political goals in Ukraine are and withstand anything that the US and its NATO allies are prepared to do in response. Hes assuming that there will not be a direct Western military response. The point of the saber rattling toward the West in Putins speech today seems to be that Moscow is in this for the long haul. Putins bet is that the West is not.
Putin signaled in his speech this morning announcing Russias military operation that he is prepared to counter Western sanctions by escalating the conflict and inflicting economic pain on Europe and the US.
These counter moves could take multiple forms, from cyber-attacks on Western governments and businesses, to export restrictions on Russian exports of oil and gas, grains, fertilizers and other goods that the West depends on, to banning overflight rights for Western airlines traveling routes to Asia. Intentionally or not, Putins actions could spark a refugee crisis, too, by driving Ukrainians to seek safe harbor in the West. Its also worth remembering that Putin has built up a war chest of about $630 billion in foreign reserves since 2014, which could carry Russia for several months as conflict with the West escalates.
Of course, all of this assumes that Putin can quickly wrap things up militarily in Ukraine at a cost that Russians are willing to bear. Many leaders have made that kind of bet before, only to be proven wrong.
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Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.
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Peter Trubowitz LSE Phelan US CentrePeter Trubowitz is Professor of International Relations, and Director of the LSEs Phelan US Centre. His main research interests are in the fields of international security and comparative foreign policy, with special focus on American grand strategy and foreign policy. He also writes and comments frequently on US party politics and elections and how they shape and are shaped by Americas changing place in the world.
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NATO rushing to resupply Ukraine by land; no-fly zone all but ruled out – POLITICO
Posted: at 10:45 am
With the skies now largely owned by Russian fighter planes and Ukraines military airports cratered by missile attacks, allied resupply has had to shut down the well-publicized air bridge that had shuttled planeloads of Javelins and anti-air Stinger missiles into Ukraine in recent weeks. From here on out, Ukrainian forces will have to make do with a series of more modest truck convoys.
But these slow-moving convoys are likewise susceptible to Russian attacks, even in the far west of the country that has so far been spared the worst of the fighting. And, as they rumble slowly eastward to the front lines, they will have to traverse mile after mile of potentially contested territory.
While several NATO allies have publicly pledged their commitment to continue funneling weapons into Ukraine, the U.S. has been more circumspect. Were continuing to provide ways for them to defend themselves, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Friday, while declining to go into any more detail.
The road option carries plenty of risk. Any truck convoys driving on those roads would be afforded scant protection from the sky, as NATO has all but shut the door on the idea of setting up a no-fly zone over any part of the country.
Despite repeated pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to close the skies, and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Friday demanding that NATO, Europe, USA close the sky over Ukraine, theres little Western appetite to do so.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace flatly rejected that idea on Friday, saying that sending aircraft to enforce a no-fly zone would mean putting British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets, and NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia because thats what you would do.
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby wasnt as categorical in dismissing the idea, telling reporters Friday that President Joe Biden has been very clear that U.S. troops will not be fighting in Ukraine, while saying that any no-fly zone would be a NATO decision.
No-fly zones are inherently dangerous, and the Obama administration refused to implement one in Syria during the height of the Assad regimes campaign against its own civilian population, citing Syrias air defenses and Russian aircraft in the skies.
If the U.S. and its allies were to issue such an order in Ukraine, the Air Force would be forced to undertake a military mission against the invading Russian forces, and U.S. forces would be forced to contend with high-level Russian air defenses, said Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Putting American planes in the sky over Ukraine would in effect entail a decision to get in a military exchange with Russian forces, with all the escalation risks that entails.
After two days of intense combat across the country, however, the needs of the Ukrainian military for resupply are real, and growing.
Igor Novikov, former adviser to Zelenskyy, told POLITICO that our life has been completely disrupted. So we need everything: weapons, supplies, money. But what we need the most is severe, unbearable pressure on the aggressor. And we need it now: theres no time for bureaucracy, when bombs are landing on our childrens homes.
The land bridge appears to be the only viable option for the moment, as the western part of Ukraine, bordering NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, has been relatively quiet, and those countries could facilitate the movement of supplies.
By land or air, there appears to be a will to keep the weapons moving to help Ukrainians hold out for as long as they can.
Ill be very clear here, Kirby said, we are going to provide additional security assistance for Ukraine. How that is going to be done is still being worked out.
Betsy Woodruff Swan contributed to this report.
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NATO rushing to resupply Ukraine by land; no-fly zone all but ruled out - POLITICO
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Erdogan says NATO, Western reaction to Russian attack not decisive – Reuters
Posted: at 10:45 am
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrive for a news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia March 5, 2020. Pavel Golovkin/Pool via REUTERS
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ANKARA, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that reaction from NATO and Western countries to Russia's assault on Ukraine had not been decisive, adding he hoped a NATO summit on Friday would lead to a more determined approach from the alliance.
NATO member Turkey borders Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea and has good ties with both. It has called on Russia to end its attack and voiced support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.
"It should not turn into an ordinary flurry of condemnation. NATO should have taken a more decisive step," Erdogan said after Friday prayers in Istanbul.
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"The EU and all Western mentalities did not show a seriously determined stance, they are all constantly advising Ukraine," he told reporters. "It is not possible to get anywhere with advice. When you look at the steps taken, there are no steps taken."
Despite a wave of sanctions from the West on Russia, Turkey has said it opposes such moves. It has also avoided using words such as "condemn" in its reaction or "invasion" to describe what is happening, instead saying Moscow's attack was "unacceptable".
On Friday, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told broadcaster NTV that Turkey had abstained in a vote at the Council of Europe to suspend Russia from the body. "We are on the side dialogue under all conditions," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Europe on Friday to act more quickly and forcefully in imposing sanctions on Moscow for invading Ukraine, accusing Western allies of politicking as Moscow's forces advanced on Kyiv. read more
On Thursday, Ukraine asked Turkey to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, linking the Mediterranean and Black seas, to Russia under a 1936 pact. But Ankara said on Friday it could not stop Russian vessels from going into the Black Sea as it had the right to return ships to their bases under the accord. read more
HUMANITARIAN AID
Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, said on Friday that Turkish and Ukrainian authorities are in contact to arrange delivery of emergency medical equipment and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, including food, medicine and tents.
Bodnar said Ukraine's list of needs was presented to both the Turkish Foreign Ministry and Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Authority (AFAD). "As lists come from Ukraine, we will continue conveying them to Turkish authorities," he told reporters in Ankara.
In a phone call on Friday, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar told his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov that Ankara was ready to provide humanitarian aid, his ministry said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also said that he had discussed "practical steps to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities" with his Turkish counterpart on Friday.
Separately, Cavusoglu said Turkey had begun evacuating citizens from Ukraine by land and that around 2,500 people had requested evacuation.
While forging close cooperation with Russia on defence and energy, Turkey has also sold drones to Ukraine and signed a deal to co-produce more. Ankara also opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, as well as its annexation of Crimea in 2014. read more
On Thursday, Erdogan, who previously offered to mediate the crisis, said he was "sincerely saddened" by Moscow's invasion, which he said was a "heavy blow" to regional peace. read more
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Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Daren Butler, William Maclean and Jonathan Oatis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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Erdogan says NATO, Western reaction to Russian attack not decisive - Reuters
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UK says NATO forces must not play active role in Ukraine – Reuters
Posted: at 10:45 am
NATO flag flies in front of the Independence Monument during a rally of supporters of the "Democratic Axe" political party to thank all of Ukraine's partners for political support and military aid, at Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine January 30, 2022. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/Files
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LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - British and NATO troops must not play an active role in the Ukraine conflict after Russia's invasion, armed forces minister James Heappey said on Friday, saying the risks of miscalculation in such a scenario could become existential.
"We must all in this house be clear that British and NATO troops should not (and) must not play an active role in Ukraine," Heappey told parliament.
"We must all be clear what the risk of miscalculation would be, and how existential that could very quickly become if people miscalculate and things escalate unnecessarily."
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Reporting by Muvija M, writing by Alistair Smout, editing by William James
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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UK says NATO forces must not play active role in Ukraine - Reuters
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France says Putin needs to understand NATO has nuclear weapons – Reuters
Posted: at 10:45 am
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian addresses a news confererence at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin, Germany February 23, 2022. Kay Nietfeld/Pool via REUTERS
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PARIS, Feb 24 (Reuters) - France's foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, when making threats about using nuclear weapons, needs to understand that NATO, too, is a nuclear alliance, but he ruled out NATO-led military intervention to defend Ukraine.
Asked whether Putin's threat of "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history" was tantamount to threatening Russian use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was indeed understood as such.
"Yes, I think that Vladimir Putin must also understand that the Atlantic alliance is a nuclear alliance. That is all I will say about this," Le Drian said on Thursday on French television TF1.
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Speaking from the Kremlin on Thursday morning as he launched the Russian military's invasion of Ukraine, Putin said Russia would respond instantly if any external force tried to interfere with its actions. read more
"Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate. And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history," the Russian president said.
Western leaders on Thursday threatened unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia, but none have argued for a NATO-led military intervention to defend Ukraine. read more
Ukraine is not a NATO ally, and the alliance is not treaty-bound to protect it. read more
Asked why NATO member states -- which in past decades have intervened militarily in non-NATO countries such as Afghanistan, Libya and former Yugoslavia -- are refusing to put soldiers on the ground in Ukraine, Le Drian said: "That is not what the Ukrainians are asking us".
He said Ukraine is asking for humanitarian and financial help, as well as military equipment, which the West has provided and will continue to provide.
Asked what weaponry NATO could provide, Le Drian said "they have made a list and we are studying that list in order to meet their requests as soon as possible".
Asked whether Europe and NATO could continue to rule out a military response despite the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine and Putin's threat of nuclear apocalypse, Le Drian said sanctions will be more efficient.
"Strangling Russia economically and financially will in the long run be stronger than any intervention," the foreign minister said.
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Reporting by Geert De Clercq; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jonathan Oatis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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France says Putin needs to understand NATO has nuclear weapons - Reuters
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EU and NATO react harshly to Russia’s Ukraine invasion – DW (English)
Posted: at 10:45 am
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has accused Russia's President Vladimir Putin of a blatant breach of international law and called on him to stop the attack on Ukraine.
"This February 24 is a terrible day for Ukraine and a gloomy day for Europe," Scholz said.He announced tough sanctions: "The aim of the sanctions is to make it clear to the Russian leadership: It will be paying a bitter price for this aggression. It will become clear: Putin has made a serious mistake with his warGermany stands by NATO's obligation to provide assistance."
"The situation is serious. The peace in Europe is built on not changing borders. We must return to these principles: State sovereignty is respected. Borders will not be moved," wrote Scholz on Twitter on Thursday morning.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that the would "not forget this day of shame." She said Russia wasbreaking "the most elementary rules of the international order." "Germany is stunned, but not helpless," she said, announcing a package of "massive sanctions."
The German foreign ministry put out a tweet reading: "Fighting & missile attacks are taking place in #Ukraine. German citizens are urged to leave the country. If you cannot leave the country by a safe route, stay in a protected place for the time being."
Ukrainian citizens can travel to Germany visa-free to remain in the country for up to90 days.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, former defense minister in Chancellor Angela Merkel's previous center-right government admitted policy failures. Taking to Twitter in English on Thursday she wrote she was angry at Germany for not preparing any deterrence and showing military strength.
"This attack will have severe political and economic consequences for Russia," Vice-Chancellor and Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck said.
DW is following the situation in Ukraine live.
NATO is activating its "defense plans" for allied countries said NATOchief Jens Stoltenberg after a first emergency meeting, he also stressed that NATO would protect its own members, but not move on Ukrainian territory itself.
Russia faces "unprecedented isolation" over its attack on Ukraine and will be hit with the "harshest sanctions" the EU has ever imposed, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Thursday morning.
"This is not a question of blocs. This is not a question of diplomatic power games. It's a matter of life and death. It is about the future of our global community," he said in a broadcast statement.
French President Emmanuel Macron said "France strongly condemns the decision of Russia to start a war with Ukraine. Russia must immediately put an end to its military operations."
"In these dark hours, our thoughts are with Ukraine and the innocent women, men, and children as they face this unprovoked attack and fear for their lives," European Union chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel said on Twitter. "We will hold the Kremlin accountable."
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia is a member, said "this attack on Ukraine puts the lives of millions of people at grave risk and is a gross breach of international law and Russia's commitments."
Poland, which has a long border with Ukraine has called on NATO to strengthen its eastern flank.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser assured Poland and other Eastern European partners "massive support" in taking in refugees from Ukraine.
The president of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, has condemned Russia's "reprehensible" attack on Ukraine and said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "threatens the peace of the entire planet." Romania, a country of 20 million people, borders Ukraine and is preparingto deal with economic and humanitarian consequences that the conflict could generate.
The Baltic nations, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which gained independence from the Soviet Union only in 1991 and have been members of both NATO and the European Union since 2004 are alarmed.
Lithuania has declared a state of emergency. Latvia's foreign ministry put out a statement saying the country should prepare for "possible security risks."
"Latvia is safe, we are not under a direct military threat," the statement read on Thursday morning and continued that"however, Latvia must also prepare for possible security risks an unpredictable refugee flow, cyber threats, disinformation attacks, and energy resource-related challenges."
UK Premier Boris Johnson took to Twitter to sayhe was "appalled by the horrific events" in Ukraine.
This article was first published at 9:00 on Thursday, February 24. It is continually being updated as more reactions are coming in.
While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society.You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.
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EU and NATO react harshly to Russia's Ukraine invasion - DW (English)
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Biden announces movement of troops to eastern NATO allies – MSNBC
Posted: at 10:45 am
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Biden announces movement of troops to eastern NATO allies - MSNBC
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Ukraine: Italy ready to supply NATO with 3,400 soldiers – Wanted in Rome
Posted: at 10:45 am
Italy is ready to supply an additional 3,400 troops to support NATO in its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Italian premier Mario Draghi told parliament on Friday.
About 1,400 troops from the army, navy and air force are ready - with afurther 2,000 military personnel available - to join the 240 Italian soldiers already deployed in NATO missions in eastern Europe, Draghi said.
"Our priority today must be to strengthen the security of our continent and apply maximum pressure on Russia to withdraw its troops and return to the negotiating table", he said, noting however that Russia's violent actions in Ukraine makes diplomatic dialogue "impossible".
Draghi toldparliament that the EU is finalising a first package of "very stringent and incisive" sanctions against Russia, and that Italy is preparing a 110 million aid package for Ukraine.
The EU measures were "coordinated together with our G7 partners", Draghi said, stressing that Italy's position is in line with other EU nations, "first and foremost France and Germany".
"The images we see - of defenceless citizens forced to hide in bunkers and subways - are terrible and take us back to the darkest days of European history", he said, adding that there are "long lines of cars leaving Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, especially towards the border with the EU."
Reiterating Italy's solidarity with the people of Ukraine, Draghi said: "The return of war in Europe cannot be tolerated".
"Italy strongly condemns the invasion, which we consider unacceptable" - the premier said - "The attack is a very serious violation of the sovereignty of a free and democratic state, of international treaties, and of the most fundamental European values".
Draghi said plans are underway for the "safe evacuation" of Italians in Ukraine and that Italy's embassy in Kyiv is "open and fully operational".
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Ukraine: Italy ready to supply NATO with 3,400 soldiers - Wanted in Rome
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