Daily Archives: February 15, 2022

As youve no doubt heard by now, Donald Trump is currently in what the legal profession defines as a world of pain. In addition to a congressional investigation into his actions before, during, and after January 6, which could lead to a criminal referral to the Justice Department, the former president is the subject of no fewer than four criminal and civil investigations by prosecutors across the country. This includes Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis, whose request to convene a grand jury to probe Trumps attempts to overturn the election in Georgia was recently approved; Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, who inherited an investigation from his predecessor into Trumps business practices that resulted in the Trump Organization and its CFO being charged with multiple felonies last summer (they pleaded not guilty); and New York attorney general Letitia James, who has been on Trumps tail for more than two years, and who recently said she had uncovered significant evidence of fraud at the Trump family business. None of this is particularly good newsin fact, some might say it is very bad newsand its now been compounded by the fact that the ex-presidents longtime accountants just threw him under the bus.

The New York Times reports that Mazars USA, which has done business with Trump for years, cut ties with the Trump Organization last week amid ongoing criminal and civil investigations into whether Mr. Trump illegally inflated the value of his assets. In a letter sent to the company dated February 9, Mazars informed the Trump Organization of its decision, and further noted that it could no longer in good conscience vouch for the years of financial statements it prepared for the business. While the memo said the firm had not as a whole discovered meaningful discrepancies between the information the Trump Organization had given it and the real, actual value of its assets, it said that given the totality of circumstances, anyone who had received the statements should assume they are bullshit. Said statements play a major role in both Braggs and Jamess investigations, which are looking into the allegations that Trump inflated the value of his assets when applying for loans and deflated them when it came to paying taxes.

The Mazars letter was included in new documents filed in court by Jamess office on Monday, which is presently attempting to get the ex-president and his two eldest children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, to answer questions under oath. Thus far the family has insisted they have no reason to sit for depositions, while the Attorney Generals office has said that, in fact, No one in this country can pick and choose if and how the law applies to them. Given that the trio was closely involved in the transactions in question, they have no leg to stand on. At a rally in January, Trump attacked James, Bragg, and Willis without referring to them by name. Trump said the three prosecutors are vicious, horrible people, theyre racists and theyre very sick, theyre mentally sick. He also called for the biggest protest we have ever had in Washington, D.C., in New York, in Atlanta, and elsewhere if these radical racist vicious prosecutors do anything wrong or illegal.

In a statement, the Trump Organization told the Times it was disappointed with Mazarss decision, but somehow saw the letter as confirmation that the firms work was performed in accordance with all applicable accounting standards and principles and that such statements of financial condition do not contain any material discrepancies.

While the Times notes that the financial statements compiled by Mazars already carried a number of disclaimers, including acknowledgments that Mr. Trumps accountants had neither audited nor authenticated his claims, and that Mazars did not express an opinion or provide any assurance about the statements, there is no universe in which the change of heart by the accounting firm can be regarded as anything other than not good for Trump and company.

Mr. Trumps lawyers would likely argue that his lenders, sophisticated financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, would not have relied on the statements when providing him loans. Still, in her court filing last month, Ms. James highlighted potential misleading statements about the value of at least six Trump properties, including golf clubs in Westchester County, N.Y., and Scotland, as well as Mr. Trumps own penthouse home in Trump Tower.

Both the civil and criminal investigations have examined the underlying information the Trump Organization provided Mazars as the accountants compiled the annual financial statements. Often, Mr. Trumps company would estimate the value of its properties based on recent selling prices of comparable buildings, a common real estate valuation method. The authorities have zeroed in on whether the company cherry-picked favorable information to essentially mislead Mazars into presenting an overly rosy picture of Mr. Trumps finances.

Anyway, yeah, wed like to see Trump spin the news that his accountants basically put dont trust anything this guy says on their official company letterhead. He will, of course, but we cant wait to see it.

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Trumps Longtime Accountants Just Threw Him Under the Bus - Vanity Fair

There are approximately 1 million reasons why the words Donald Trump has won the 2024 election should send shivers down peoples spines, up to and including the prospect of again watching the president of the United States board Air Force One with toilet paper stuck to his shoe, and seeing Christmas ruined for countless children by the leader of the free world. Probably the number one reason, though, is the minor matter of the guy making it abundantly clear that the rules dont apply to him, plus the sneaking suspicion that if he managed to make his way back to the White House, hed order the military to invade states whose governors he didnt like or have his enemies put to death.

Unfortunately, many members of the Republican Party have no interest in stopping Trump, either because theyre absolutely terrified of experiencing his wrath, or they think hes the greatest thing that ever happened to the United States (and have already pledged their undying loyalty to him). Which makes a New York Times report, one stating that a group of politicians led by Mitch McConnell is trying to cut Trump off at the knees, a hopeful development.

As Mr. Trump works to retain his hold on the Republican Party, elevating a slate of friendly candidates in midterm elections, Mr. McConnell and his allies are quietly, desperately maneuvering to try to thwart him. The loose alliance, which was once thought of as the GOP establishment, for months has been engaged in a high-stakes candidate recruitment campaign, full of phone calls, meetings, polling memos, and promises of millions of dollars. Its all aimed at recapturing the Senate majority, but the election also represents what could be Republicans last chance to reverse the spread of Trumpism before it fully consumes their party.

Mr. McConnell for years pushed Mr. Trumps agenda and only rarely opposed him in public. But the message that he delivers privately now is unsparing, if debatable: Mr. Trump is losing political altitude and need not be feared in a primary...In conversations with senators and would-be senators, Mr. McConnell is blunt about the damage he believes Mr. Trump has done to the GOP, according to those who have spoken to him. Privately, he has declared he wont let unelectable goofballs win Republican primaries.

Would we like to believe that McConnell will be successful here? Of course we would. Wed also like to believe that climate change isnt ultimately going to turn the earth into an uninhabitable hellhole, or that one day well see a trio of people panhandling on the subway and on further inspection realize theyre Trumps eldest children. Unfortunately, neither of those things looks like its actually going to pan out, and nor does McConnells plan:

History doesnt bode well for such behind-the-scene efforts to challenge Mr. Trump, and Mr. McConnells hard sell is so far yielding mixed results. The former president has rallied behind fewer far-right candidates than initially feared by the partys old guard. Yet a handful of formidable contenders have spurned Mr. McConnells entreaties, declining to subject themselves to Mr. Trumps wrath all for the chance to head to a bitterly divided Washington.

Last week, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland announced he would not run for Senate, despite a pressure campaign that involved his wife. [Arizona governor Doug] Ducey is expected to make a final decision [about running for Senate] soon, but he has repeatedly said he has little appetite for a bid.

As the Times notes, while there issome evidence that Mr. Trumps grip on Republican voters has eased, polls show the former president remains overwhelmingly popular in the party, and among people attempting to win primaries, he remains the most sought-after endorsement. In my state, hes still looked at as the leader of the party, Missouri senator Josh Hawley told the Times. Last week, in a wildly cringeworthy display, Representative Nancy Mace filmed herself outside of Trump Tower reminding people of her longtime loyalty to Trumpand this came just one day after Trump endorsed Maces opponent and called Mace an absolutely terrible candidate.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, Senator Lindsey Graham told ABC News that the Republican presidential nomination is Trumps for the taking in 2024, if he wants. Sure, Graham added that it wont help the ex-presidents cause if he continues to talk about the 2020 election, but he nevertheless insisted, less than two weeks after Trump called him a RINO who has no idea what hes talking about, that Donald Trump is the most consequential Republican in the Republican Party today. He has a great chance of being president again in 2024.

Of course, theres an alternate scenario in which Trump is actually held accountable for his cornucopia of alleged crimes, from fraudulent business practices to inciting an insurrection, and is unable to run for office because hes in prison. In a heartening interview with Salon, Representative Jamie Raskin, a member of the committee investigating January 6,said Trump is guilty as sin and a one-man crime wave, but will ultimately get his comeuppance. Which would obviously be great, but it would be nice if we didnt have to count on it to keep him out of the White House.

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A Handful of Republicans Are Trying to Prevent Trump 2024 (And Its Not Going Well So Far) - Vanity Fair

While Dolan is widely regarded as a longshot in the Trump-dominated primary, those in the former presidents orbit say theres good reason to be focused on him: The candidate is spending $10 million-plus out of his pocket, is slowly rising in polling and is poised to benefit from a raft of Trump-aligned primary rivals splintering the vote among themselves.

Now, Trump is confronting a pivotal decision one fraught with risk that will test his ability to shape primaries. He can wade into the murky field of pro-Trump candidates and try to consolidate his backers behind a single figure, but picking the wrong person could invite backlash from his base of supporters. Or he can stay out the fray entirely, but run the possibility of Dolan winning the May 3 primary with a plurality of the vote.

In a divided field, anybody willing and able to deploy those kind of personal resources is a credible threat, even though hes out of step with the Republican base across a whole range of issues, said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who is working for a super PAC bolstering one of Dolans rivals, venture capitalist J.D. Vance.

Dolans campaign strenuously denies that hes anti-Trump. The 57-year-old state senator, whose billionaire family owns the Cleveland Guardians, has said he voted for the former president in the 2016 and 2020 elections and that he would support him should he be the Republican nominee in 2024. He has also said he did not support Trumps impeachment.

Rather, Dolan advisers say, he is simply running a campaign that doesnt revolve around the former president a starkly different approach from his Trump-loving rivals.

The other candidates have been so obsessed with appeasing interests outside Ohio, they forgot what they are supposed to be fighting for in Ohio, said Chris Maloney, a Dolan strategist. We like that contrast.

Still, Trumps fixation on Dolan has steadily been growing since late September, when he launched his campaign. That same day, Trump released a statement attacking Dolan, a part-owner of the Guardians, for the baseball teams decision to change the name it had since 1915: the Cleveland Indians. After the team announced the change in 2020, Trump called it cancel culture at work!

I know of at least one person in the race who I wont be endorsing, Trump said of Dolan. The Republican Party has too many RINOs! he added, using the acronym for Republican in name only.

A person close to the Dolan family pushed back on the assertion that the name change was the state senators idea, saying: Contrary to the assertions of his opponents, Matt is not involved in the day-to-day operations or management of the team, but it is a family business and Matt stands by his family.

Trump brought up Dolan again during a late January meeting with top advisers to discuss the midterm landscape, according to a person familiar with the discussion. Then, on Feb. 3, Trump privately met at Mar-a-Lago with Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno, a wealthy business owner in the race. During the two-hour meeting, the two discussed how the GOP must not lose the seat to a Democrat in the primary or general election. A person familiar with the meeting said the remark was an implicit reference to Dolan.

That evening, Moreno announced he was dropping out of the primary, attributing his decision to concern that a split Republican field of pro-Trump candidates would make it harder for a Trump ally to win the nomination.

After talking to President Trump, we both agreed this race has too many Trump candidates and could cost the MAGA movement a conservative seat, Moreno said in a statement announcing his departure, adding that he would focus his efforts on supporting the candidate that wins President Trumps endorsement.

In the days since, the former president has expressed concern to allies about the quality of the pro-Trump candidates, and he even raised the idea that someone new jump into the race. (That is now an impossibility given that the filing deadline was Feb. 2.) Trump has privately mentioned that he nearly endorsed one of them, former Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken, last year. But he pulled the plug at the last minute after she initially defended Ohio GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez after he voted for Trumps impeachment. (Timken later condemned Gonzalez and called on him to step down.)

The courtship of Trump has been long and intense: Last March, several leading Ohio candidates Dolan not among them privately sat down with the former president at his West Palm Beach, Fla., golf club. The meeting devolved into a backbiting, Apprentice-style boardroom competition to win him over.

Trump has told those close to him that he could make an endorsement as the race heads down the stretch. However, doing so may present a challenge, given that political advisers across Trumps orbit are working for different candidates. Bill Stepien and Justin Clark, the two top officials on Trumps reelection campaign, are helping investment banker Mike Gibbons. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Andy Surabian, a top adviser to Donald Trump Jr., are working for Vance. Club for Growth President David McIntosh, another Trump ally, is behind former state Treasurer Josh Mandel.

There are indications that Dolans advertisements are paying dividends. A just-completed survey from co/efficient, a Republican analytics firm, shows Dolan moving into third place with 7 percent, behind only Gibbons and Mandel. The figures represent a clear upward trajectory for Dolan: A poll taken by a pro-Vance super PAC that was conducted Jan. 18-20, at the start of Dolans ad blitz, put Dolan in a distant sixth place with only 3 percent.

Dolan has more reinforcements on the way. His family, which made its fortune in cable TV, has plowed $3 million into an allied super PAC. The candidate also recently won the endorsement of the Franklin County Republican Party, the states most populous county, which will be bolstering him by sending mailers, dispatching volunteers and creating a fundraising committee on his behalf, among other things.

And while Trump is looking to sink Dolan, some of his supporters are not. James Wert, a financial adviser and donor who was Trumps 2020 finance chair in the state, recently hosted a breakfast reception for the candidate.

I can assure you that Matt Dolan appreciates and supports the many great accomplishments of the president during his term of office, as do I, Wert wrote in an email, adding that he had come to the conclusion that Matt Dolan is best positioned among the field to win both the Republican primary in May and also win the general election in November.

Whether Dolan can appeal to enough voters in a primary electorate bound to be dominated by Trump supporters is far from certain. According to the survey conducted by the pro-Vance super PAC, more than 90 percent of likely Republican voters approved of Trump, meaning that those closely aligning themselves to the former president may have an easier path to the nomination.

But Dolan supporters disagree. Beth Hansen, a Dolan backer and longtime adviser to former GOP Gov. John Kasich, argued that while the pro-Trump candidates competed for the same slice of voters, Dolan had a clear lane to win over traditional conservatives.

In my opinion is there a winning plurality of voters available to Matt Dolan? Hansen said. Absolutely.

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Trump's latest political obsession: The baseball team owner not toeing his line - POLITICO

Donald Trump has endorsed rightwing Republican candidates who support his baseless claims of a stolen election for key posts in Michigan, raising the prospect of a Trumpist takeover of how the key battleground state might run its elections.

Trump and his allies are backing numerous candidates in the coming midterm elections across the US, including in other vital states like Arizona and Georgia.

But his intervention in Michigan raises particular eyebrows due to its role in helping Trump to win in 2016, before flipping back to the Democrats in 2020 and helping oust him from office.

The former US president and his close ally Mike Lindell, the My Pillow CEO, are giving strong backing to a Michigan lawyer and key promoter of debunked election fraud charges who is seeking the Republican nod to be the states next attorney general.

Trump plans to hold a fundraiser for lawyer Matthew DePerno on 8 March at his Florida Mar-a-Lago club, where Lindell told the Guardian he will speak to boost DePernos chances to be the Republican to take on Michigans Democratic attorney general, Dana Nessel.

Kristina Karamo, a community college professor who also peddled conspiracy theories about election fraud, and who never held elected office, has received Trumps backing to be the Republican secretary of state candidate to challenge incumbent Democrat Jocelyn Benson in the fall elections.

The secretary of state plays a crucial role in overseeing elections, and Trump loyalists are investing heavily to capture several of these posts this year.

And early this month, Trump spoke at a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago for the gubernatorial campaign of conservative commentator and business woman Tudor Dixon who has backed a vaguely defined forensic audit of the states election results which Joe Biden won by 154,000 votes.

Although Trump called Dixon very special, he is not yet made an official endorsement and she is one of 12 Republican candidates seeking to be the next governor.

Trumps varying embraces of DePerno, Karamo and Dixon is emblematic of how he is helping candidates who repeat his false charges that he lost due to widespread fraud, and who could potentially help Trump sway results in key states should he run again in 2024.

According to a report from the election watchdog group States United Action, at least 11 candidates who have denied the 2020 results are valid are running for attorney-general posts in 10 states, and at least 21 election deniers are trying to win secretary of state races in 18 states, as of the end of January.

Statewide leaders from both parties who protected the will of the voters in 2020 are being challenged by election deniers, said Joanna Lydgate, the chief executive of States United Action. Those candidates are campaigning on lies and conspiracy theories in determining whether the will of the voters is upheld a dangerous contradiction.

Both DePerno and Karamo have already garnered checks for $5,000 from a Trump Super Pac, according to public records. A Michigan Republican convention in April will decide which candidates get on the fall ballot to take on Democratic opponents, and an August Republian primary will choose the partys gubernatorial candidate to oppose incumbent Gretchen Whitmer.

The Trump Super Pac overall backed a total of 14 Michigan candidates who challenged the 2020 results and roped in $65,000 from the Pac more than any other state except Texas according to campaign data.

DePernos candidacy has been especially controversial given his legal efforts promoting false fraud charges in a lawsuit against 23,000-person Antrim county. The DePerno lawsuit, which was filed on behalf of a local realtor, sought to obtain a forensic audit, but was rejected last May when a judge noted that an audit had been done and dismissed the suit which alleged election machines were purposely designed to produce fraud.

Antrim county, a Republican stronghold, was won by Trump after a preliminary tally that Biden won the county was quickly found wrong due to a clerical error, and corrected.

Some of DePernos fundraising to help fund audits in Michigan and Arizona, and apparently pay for personal legal expenses, have prompted scrutiny for their size and unknown donors.

One Election Fraud Defense Fund that DePerno used reportedly raked in $384,000 as of last July, and had an overall goal of $1m, some of which was expected to pay for a Michigan audit.

Lindell told the Guardian he has not donated funds to DePernos legal efforts or campaign and that he met DePerno when the lawyer was featured in Lindells film Absolute Proof, which early last year drew criticism for promoting dubious theories about the 2020 election results.

After the movie came out, DePerno and his family received threats, according to Lindell, which prompted him to give the lawyer about $20,000 for security.

Lindell has endorsed other candidates for attorney-general and governor posts in states such as Arizona, Georgia and Texas who echo Trumps false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.

When Trump endorsed DePerno last fall, he dubbed him a super lawyer, claiming falsely that he exposed so much fraud in Antrim county, and many more places, in the 2020 elections.

The Trump bash next month at Mar-a-Lago to help DePerno could raise tens of thousands of dollars for his campaign coffers, according to reported ticket prices. For $25,000, a donor can get a photo standing next to Trump and DePerno, while for $10,000 an attendee can have a photo taken next to Lindell and DePerno.

Those funds could prove useful: a Detroit News poll last month showed DePerno running behind Tom Leonard, who Nessel defeated in 2018, and who is hoping to challenge her again. According to the poll, Nessel led Leonard and DePerno.

Although Trumps backing for DePerno seems to have drawn the most scrutiny, Karamo and Dixon have also generated controversies.

Karamo has said that Trump was the real winner of Michigan in 2020, and used her podcast on 7 January to push conspiratorial and false charges that far-left anarchists led the assault on the Capitol.

Last October, Karamo was one of several secretary of state candidates from various states who have embraced Trumps election lies to speak at a Las Vegas meeting that featured people with QAnon conspiracy links.

Although Trump hasnt formally endorsed Dixon, who has worked in sales and customer service at a steel company her father launched, Dixon has made no secret of her backing for Trump and hopes that he will bless her campaign.

I think that we would be kidding ourselves if we didnt say that his endorsement will absolutely frame every race in America, she said last August.

Other Republican gubernatorial aspirants are also angling for Trumps backing, including ex-Detroit police chief James Craig, who met with Trump last fall.

With Trump-backed candidates competing in Michigan and many other states, Lydgate of States United Action warned that its not a given any more that candidates for high office believe in free and fair elections the American people need to pay close attention to those races.

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Alarm as Trump backs big lie candidates for key election posts in Michigan - The Guardian

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (center) looks toward former President Donald Trump at the White House in 2020. Stefani Reynolds/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images hide caption

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (center) looks toward former President Donald Trump at the White House in 2020.

The Russian threat to Ukraine has Washington on edge. No one wants the heightened tensions in Eastern Europe to escalate into war. But there's at least one prominent Republican in the Capitol not complaining that the media spotlight has shifted overseas.

Last week, Mitch McConnell, the six-term Republican senator from Kentucky who has been his party's leader in the Senate for the past 15 years, found himself locked in a high-profile confrontation with the former president who insists he is still the party's leader.

It was not the first round of this long-running bout, but it was perhaps the most clarifying and the most consequential for the elections this fall and in 2024.

McConnell had felt compelled to respond when the Republican National Committee censured two Republican members of the House for serving on the special committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. The RNC had characterized the events on Jan. 6 as "ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse."

McConnell would have none of that. Unlike the members of the RNC, he actually witnessed what happened in the Capitol on that day. And he has always been clear about what he saw and what it meant.

"It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election from one administration to the next," McConnell said last week.

That was no more than most of his party colleagues in the Senate or among the nation's governors would say. But he was saying it in plain English in public with reporters gathered to hear it. And he was saying it in the certain knowledge that his defense of the investigating committee and the legitimacy of the 2020 election would bring down the wrath of Donald Trump.

"Mitch McConnell does not speak for the Republican Party and does not represent the views of the vast majority of its voters," Trump shot back in a statement released by his Save America PAC. "He did nothing to fight for his constituents and stop the most fraudulent election in American history."

It is hard to find a comparable exchange between a president and a Senate leader of the same party anywhere in U.S. history.

To be sure, presidents have often crossed swords with the leaders of the opposition party and not infrequently disagreed with those of their own party. But the latter disputes are generally not put out for public consumption. The fratricidal nature and sharp wording of the Trump-McConnell feud are unprecedented.

Late in 2002, President George W. Bush distanced himself from his own party's Senate leader, Trent Lott of Mississippi, after Lott made a stunning remark at a retirement party for Strom Thurmond. Lott had suggested the country "wouldn't have had all these problems over the years" if Thurmond had been elected president in 1948, when Thurmond was the segregationist nominee of the States Rights Party.

That led to Lott stepping down as leader, making way for another senator with closer ties with the White House. But Bush was the sitting president at the time, still riding a huge wave of public support in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks and preparing the nation for an impending war with Iraq.

Sen. Trent Lott and President George Bush listen as former first lady Nancy Reagan accepts the Congressional Gold Medal. Brooks Kraft/Corbis via Getty Images hide caption

Sen. Trent Lott and President George Bush listen as former first lady Nancy Reagan accepts the Congressional Gold Medal.

Trump is scarcely in a comparable position, having lost his bid for re-election and deeply divided the country.

And McConnell is in no sense likely to step down. He has far more experience and far more achievements as leader than Lott. The crux is that he is backed by most of the GOP senators who are his most immediate and important "constituents."

That is why McConnell is well positioned to break out to the upside on his current status as the minority leader in a 50-50 Senate. Republicans need just one more seat to make that happen, and it could happen any time a vacancy occurs, or it could come with the midterm elections in November. McConnell's colleagues know there is no one more likely to oversee a successful electoral season than McConnell.

In 2014, for example, while serving in the Senate minority leader role, McConnell helped recruit and raise money for that fall's strong line-up of challengers who defeated five Democratic incumbents and captured an additional four seats from Democrats who had retired. That gain of nine seats (no GOP seat went Democratic) set McConnell up with a clear majority to resist Barack Obama on nearly every front in his last two years as president.

But McConnell knows that a sweep of that kind is far from automatic. He was also the party leader for the Senate election cycle in 2012, when vulnerable Democrats in Missouri and Indiana escaped because the Republicans nominated weaker candidates. At that time, the surging influence of the Tea Party was being felt throughout the country and helping hardline insurgents win primaries over more mainstream Republicans.

If something similar were to happen this year, one of two scenarios that McConnell wishes to avoid could play out in the next round of voting for party leader. In one, the pro-Trump rivals who beat McConnell's preferred candidates get to Washington and vote for someone other than McConnell for leader. Two have already pledged to do so.

In the alternative scenario, the pro-Trump rivals get the GOP nominations and lose to the Democrats in November. That might not only frustrate McConnell's drive for a clear majority but endanger his base of 50. Republican nominations are up for grabs in at least three states (Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina) where Democrats have a shot at winning this fall.

President Donald Trump shakes hands with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., after delivering his address to a joint session of Congress on Feb. 28, 2017. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images hide caption

President Donald Trump shakes hands with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., after delivering his address to a joint session of Congress on Feb. 28, 2017.

In that event, if his party were to lose ground when it expects to gain, the octogenarian McConnell would be less assured of keeping his job. This would be especially true assuming Republicans do take over in the House and Trump becomes an official candidate for 2024 and calls for McConnell's ouster.

McConnell's real problem is that the Republican primary voters this year may well resemble those of 2012 more than those of 2014. The party has continued to move in the direction once denoted in the phrase "Tea Party" and now symbolized by Trump.

That is the message in the RNC statement and in countless polls showing most Republicans say Trump actually won re-election in 2020 despite the mountains of evidence to the contrary.

The problem is that McConnell is not just dealing with Trump. He is dealing with the realities of the Republican Party that elevated Trump in 2016 and have most of the party's ranks following Trump's lead today.

Any lingering doubts about this can be dispelled by reading the new book by New York Times reporter Jeremy W. Peters, Insurgency: How Republicans Lost Their Party and Got Everything They Ever Wanted. Peters has spent the years since the original Tea Party demonstrations in 2009 following developments on the American right.

He has interviewed Trump, but most of his book is what he learned from interviewing several hundred others relevant to his overall subject over a period of years. Among them is Patrick Buchanan, the speechwriter for Ronald Reagan who became a columnist and TV commentator and three-time candidate for president. Peters argues that the "pitchfork Pat" ethos of Buchanan's campaigns in the 1990s kept right on marching through the first decades of the new century.

The movement was diverted but not derailed by the years of the War on Terror. Then, in 2008, its anger was back on a domestic track with the mortgage meltdown and Wall Street bailouts, then the elevation of the Obamas (Michelle almost as much as Barack). The movement found its next leading figure in Sarah Palin (whose 2008 speech as vice presidential nominee has iconic status) and found its populist sweet spot with the rise of the Tea Party and opposition to "Obamacare."

But the Tea Party could not get Obama out of office, and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney proved disappointing. The field of candidates for 2016 was huge, but the insurgents soon found their new voice in Trump, the celebrity wheeler-dealer and reality TV star. Trump fixated issues such as the birth certificate and the "Ground Zero Mosque" in New York City. He also savaged immigrants from Mexico and from Muslim countries. And he began denigrating the integrity of elections before he had even been a candidate.

But Peters has a notebook full of other characters and campaigns, from the speechwriters who worked with Palin to the on-air personalities who labored for Roger Ailes, the legendary creator of Fox News. Peters seems to have been present and reporting at every significant turn in the Republican road, watching the party gradually shed its country club image in favor of pickup trucks and gun racks.

Along the way we meet many media figures who will figure in Trump's eventual rise, including Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity but also the shadowy Andrew Breitbart and his buddy and successor Steve Bannon. We see the roles played by David Bossie at Citizens United and Stephen Miller as a Senate staffer, well before they become part of Trump's inner circle of hard liners. Later we see how they assume roles inside Trump's new regime, along with all those Fox personalities, one by one.

Peters conveys a keen sense of having been present, not at the creation of this new GOP but for a critical stage of its transformation. His conclusion is that Trump is less a cause of the toxic political climate than he is a product of it. One might add that if Trump is neither the fuel nor the fire, he has surely been a highly effective accelerant. Thanks to him, what had been smoldering in our political culture has burst forth with far greater reach and intensity.

Trump has brought the heat. To date, Mitch McConnell has managed to convert that heat in service of the conservative agenda he himself wanted to achieve. The results have included a paring back of federal regulations and taxes and the repopulating of the federal judiciary.

This year, with Trump out of office but never out of mind, McConnell has to harness his insurgent energy again to pursue his own goals. And that will be a special challenge given that this time much of the heat is now being directed at him.

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Trump vs. McConnell: Latest round between GOP heavyweights has the highest stakes yet - NPR

In response to former President Donald Trump's claims that Mike Pence could have overturned the 2020 election, the former vice president spoke out in his strongest remarks yet. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP hide caption

In response to former President Donald Trump's claims that Mike Pence could have overturned the 2020 election, the former vice president spoke out in his strongest remarks yet.

It was a series of words some never expected former Vice President Mike Pence to utter: "President Trump is wrong."

Pence was responding to Trump's claims that Pence had the power to overturn the 2020 presidential election results during last year's joint session of Congress.

Pence's comments raised new questions about his political future and whether he's charting a new course in the Republican Party out from under of Trump's shadow.

"I'm very interested to see where it goes from here," said Brendan Buck, a former top congressional GOP aide. "Because it's not clear, at least in the next three to four years, that there's much room for somebody to be outside of Donald Trump's good side."

Historically, vice presidents see themselves as the heir apparent to the Oval Office.

But for Pence, that plan appeared to be cut short in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, when rioters called for his hanging.

Pence had declined to accede to Trump's demands to reject Joe Biden's win during that day's joint session of Congress.

He has since drawn Trump's growing ire. In response to Trump's claims he could have overturned the election's results, Pence spoke out in his strongest remarks yet.

"I had no right to overturn the election," Pence told the conservative Federalist Society earlier this month. "The presidency belongs to the American people and the American people alone. And frankly, there is no idea more un-American than the notion than any one person could choose the American president."

Pence's remarks highlight a dramatic divide facing the GOP today.

They're also a reminder of the political dangers that Republicans who speak out against Trump face evident even in Pence's own family.

"I stand by my brother and always will," Indiana GOP Rep. Greg Pence told NPR, "and I'll let him speak for himself about his remarks."

When asked again about his own stance, Greg Pence declined to comment.

"Love my brother, I'll always stand by him," he said.

Mike Pence's brother, Indiana Rep. Greg Pence, is seen in 2018. Scott Olson/Getty Images hide caption

Mike Pence's brother, Indiana Rep. Greg Pence, is seen in 2018.

But some working to defeat Trump and his movement, like former Pence adviser Olivia Troye, were grateful her ex-boss finally spoke out.

Troye, who left the Trump White House in 2020, said Pence helped enable lies about the election that is, until his stunning remarks.

"That's very hard for Mike Pence to do, because I have never heard him say that publicly," Troye said.

Now, she suspects Pence was prompted by a perfect storm: Several of his former advisers have testified before the House panel investigating the Jan. 6 riot.

And days before Pence's remarks, Trump escalated his attacks. He said the House select committee should probe Pence instead, for not rejecting Biden's win.

"I think at that point, I think Mike Pence was like, 'Enough,' " Troye said. "And I think it set him up to be able to do this."

Troye believes Pence is now looking for ways to survive politically as a traitor to the GOP's de facto leader.

This comes as the Democratic-led Jan. 6 committee has engaged with Pence's lawyers in talks for weeks to try to land his voluntarily testimony, too.

"It's been publicly reported that we've ... met with folks, you know, around him and we continue to learn a lot," said California Democrat Pete Aguilar, who sits on the panel. "We'd obviously ... love to hear from him. And we're proceeding, you know, respectfully with what we do in the future."

So far, the committee has received voluntary testimony from at least three former Pence advisers: retired Army Gen. Keith Kellogg, who was his national security adviser; ex-chief of staff Marc Short; and former counsel Greg Jacob.

Panel Chair Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., called Pence's remarks "excellent."

"That was a wonderful speech he gave," Thompson told NPR.

Questions remain whether Pence would cooperate in a probe that could harm Trump's political future, as the select committee plans to deliver its findings through some prime-time hearings this spring.

Buck, the former GOP aide, says until the Capitol attack, Pence had well-positioned himself as Trump's successor.

"That has been shattered," Buck said. "And it probably took a year for him to come around to the realization that his future is no longer going to be defined among Republicans as the loyal No. 2. Even if he wanted to do that, at this point, Donald Trump wouldn't allow it."

Trump is eyeing a 2024 presidential run and will likely deal more attacks to those who cross him along the way. Buck says within the GOP, Trump remains as strong as ever politically.

As a result, that's left Pence to carve out a new lane for what could be a lonely journey.

Still, Buck says it's too soon to count out Pence's political future and his influence for Republicans since he still draws wide respect in certain circles. And Pence is banking that now is the time to finally make his move, Buck said.

"You can't wait 10 years to hope the party changes and be off the stage that entire time," he said. "So part of it is remaining out there and relevant. Some of it ... is probably getting something off of his chest. It probably also comes down to the political calculation that we need to chart a different course and if we're going to do that, it needs to start now and let's get going."

See the article here:

Mike Pence steps out of Donald Trump's shadow with 2020 rebuke - NPR

Democratic and Republican voters are split about havingPresident Biden or former President Donald Trump leading their tickets in 2024, but they have few candidates in mind whocan replacethem, according to a poll released on Sunday.

The CNN survey conducted between Jan. 10 and Feb. 6 found that 51 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters wanted somebody other than Biden in 2024, while 45 percent hope hell be renominated.

Asked the same question, 50 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning independent voters wanted Trump to be their standard-bearer, while 49 percent are wishing for another candidate to enter thefray.

Among Democrats who prefer somebody other than Biden, 31 percent said they dont want him to be re-elected, 35 percent said they dont believe he could beat the Republican candidate, and 34 percent cited a different reason, including 19 percent who said the president is too old, 4 percent who want a better candidate, and 3 percent who want somebody different.

Biden will turn 82 Nov. 20. 2024.

Questioned about who they would prefer instead of Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) got 5 percent support, followed by former first lady Michelle Obama (4 percent), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (2 percent), and Vice President Kamala Harris (2 percent).

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive firebrand from New York, garnered 1 percent of support along with media mogul Oprah Winfrey and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

No one else got more than 1 percent of support.Seven percent opted for other/unsure.

As for Republicans who oppose Trump in 2024, 39 percent said they just dont want him to be president, 22 percent think he cant win against a Democrat and 38 percent went with another reason.

Those include someone new/better (9 percent), too polarizing (7 percent ), and someone with different traits (6 percent).

Dislike the vitriol, Democrats wont let him win, and too old came in at 3 percent.

Trump will be 78 in November 2024.

Asked who should run instead, Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis easily topped the list with 21 percent.

A slew of others Donald Trump Jr., Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina- all came in at 1 percent.

Other/unsure got 12 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,527 voters, and it has a plus/minus 3.3 percentage points margin of error.

Here is the original post:

Parties split on Biden, Trump running again in 2024 election: poll - New York Post

Until last week the most uproarious explanation ever offered for the disappearance of evidence in the possession of an American president involved the erasure of 18 1/2 minutes of Richard Nixons tape recording of a key White House meeting he had about the Watergate break-in just after it took place. The tape of Nixons meeting about the break-in was subpoenaed, which led to the darndest discovery: A large portion of the tape was missing, and Nixon had no explanation for what in the heck had happened to it.

His longtime secretary, Rose Mary Woods, loyally volunteered to offer reporters a theory of how she might have accidentally destroyed a portion of the tape. While reviewing the tape at Nixons request, she speculated, she might have inadvertently placed her foot on a pedal that erased the tape while keeping her foot there for an extended period of time, stretching the rest of her body several feet in the opposite direction to answer the phone. While attempting to demonstrate this, however, what she demonstrated was that no circus performer on earth could have kept foot and torso virtually in separate rooms for 10 seconds, let alone the length of time she professed. Woods claim of truly superhuman elasticity led the late Congressman Al Lowenstein to dub her Miss Glue-Shoes the Contortionist and, indeed, her valiant attempt to take the fall for Somebody Else was later found by forensic testing to be impossible.

Last weeks revelations about plumbing problems at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue trumped the Rose Mary Woods Stretch in more ways than one. Donald Trump seemed to have a fixation on problematic toilet-flushing. People are flushing toilets 10 times, 15 times, as opposed to one, the leader of the free world proclaimed from the Roosevelt Room. 10 times, right, 10 times, he told a rally. Not me, of course, not me. But you, he said, no doubt mystifying a crowd of Make America Greaters. I wont talk about the fact that people have to flush their toilets 15 times, Trump assured another crowd, thereby talking about it.

It seemed fair even at the time to wonder what in Gods name would lead the president of the United States to publicly mention even once his concerns about having to flush a toilet multiple times, let alone to return to the subject repeatedly. The explanation for why flushing troubles were so often top of Donald Trumps mind may have arrived with news that journalist Maggie Habermans forthcoming book reports that White House staff would find wads of printed paper clogging a toilet used by Trump, and concluded that he flushed government documents therein. Trump denies this, trotting out the usual fake news line, but he does not enjoy a great deal of credibility on any subject, much less on subjects involving himself.

Trumps credibility was not helped by a Washington Post report that he regularly tore up briefing materials, letters and memos, or by a former White House staffers on-the-record disclosure that Trump loved to tear up those documents and that she observed him eat the pieces of documents he had just ripped up.

And Trumps attempts to destroy or otherwise make unavailable government documents appears to have been wholesale rather than merely retail. Late last week the National Archives and Records Administration said that it had retrieved 15 boxes of White House records that were supposed to have been transferred to the National Archives when Trump left office, but which instead were taken to Mar-a-Lago. Like the flushing, the ripping and the eating of documents, this is more than a fetish or a penchant for hiding information that the former guy doesnt want anyone to see. Its an apparent violation of federal law.

Lock her up, Donald Trump would cry about Hillary Clintons improper handling of government emails.

Just sayin.

Jeff Robbins is a Boston lawyer and former U.S. delegate to the United Nations Human Rights Commission.

Continued here:

Robbins: Trump doesnt have shred of credibility on handling documents - Boston Herald