Daily Archives: February 3, 2022

Putin’s effort to split NATO may depend on Germany | TheHill – The Hill

Posted: February 3, 2022 at 3:49 pm

Make no mistake, Russias fundamental strategic objective in coercing Ukraine is to undermine NATO. In Russian President Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinRussia crisis exacerbates US political divisions Americans should be paying attention to Ukraine White House says it's nixing use of 'imminent' to describe Russian invasion MOREs mind, a weaker NATO directly correlates with a stronger Russia. Long-festering policy differences within the alliance, self-inflicted vulnerabilities to external pressures and weak political leadership in key Western states are already on full display. Ponderous rhetoric about NATO solidarity, endlessly repeated by the Biden administration, only underscores rather than conceals these problems.

Putin well understands these phenomena. He is actively seeking to exacerbate existing tensions and weaknesses, and create new ones, and has already made significant progress in undercutting the alliance. Today, these divisions eviscerate the credibility of threatened post-invasion sanctions against Russia, no matter how serious the West might be. If Russia remains undeterred, the long-term damage to Americas global position, compounding the corrosive effects of the Afghan withdrawal, could be incalculable.

NATOs problems are hardly new. Not for nothing was Henry Kissingers pathbreaking mid-1960s analysis entitled The Troubled Partnership. Nonetheless, the undeniable Soviet Cold War threat; Americas sustained, vitally important perception that ensuring Europes security enhanced its own; and U.S. leaders like Ronald Reagan, determined to defeat communism not merely manage or contain it, ultimately prevailed. NATO members collective-defense commitments held, and the USSR collapsed. The story becomes vaguer from there, with upticks after 9-11 and during the ensuing war on Islamicist terrorism.

During the 1990s generally-shared Western euphoria (remember the end of history?), NATOs expansion was both inevitable and beneficial to all involved. But Washington failed to think through how far NATO should grow. There was talk of possibly including Russia at some point, although that opportunity, not nurtured seriously during the Clinton administration, died through inattention. Spains former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar proposed making NATO a global alliance, including members such as Japan, Australia and Israel, but Europes burghers were uninterested.

Unfortunately, and critical here, NATOs eastern European flank was left unfinished, with many former Soviet republics isolated in an ambiguous, clearly dangerous grey zone between NATO and Russia. In 2008, with bipartisan support, President George W. Bush proposed fast-tracking NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. Germany and France blocked the move, and now assert tautologically that not being NATO members means they are of no special concern to the alliance. Contemporary criticisms that Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership because of corruption and an unsteady democracy overlook Bushs prior initiative. They also conveniently ignore that eastern and central European states admitted after the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union collapsed were hardly clones of Luxembourg or Canada.

But who determines the strategic status of the grey-zone countries? Ukraine exemplifies this issue, struggling to shed its communist past and create durable representative government. While key national territory has already been annexed or subjugated by Moscow, Ukrainians nonetheless still believe they should decide their international future. Russia believes it should decide, and many Europeans and Americans seemingly agree: Russia is powerful, borders Ukraine and there are historic antecedents. Perhaps we should ask Chinas neighbors how they feel about that logic. Not long ago, we could have asked that question of Germanys neighbors.

Undeniably, Ukraine is now under brutal pressure, including the palpable risk of further Russian military invasion. In response, President BidenJoe BidenOath Keepers leader spoke to Jan. 6 panel from detention center Biden nominee faces scrutiny over fintech work, compensation Overnight Defense & National Security Pentagon deploying 3,000 troops to Europe MORE has not solidified the alliance. He has in fact increased its divisions through his soon-to-be-historical banter about minor incursions, desperate efforts to concede something to Moscow to halt the march toward military hostilities and public disagreement with Ukraine itself on the imminence of a Russian attack. Observers watch daily for more signs of Biden going wobbly.

Europes reaction is mixed. Despite domestic political turmoil, Great Britain has been firm, even ahead of the U.S. by some measures. Eastern and central European NATO members need no lectures on the Kremlins threat, and they are wholly resolute, notwithstanding reliance on Russian natural gas. More distant NATO countries are less visible, but at least not obstructionist. France is being France, with President Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Jean-Michel MacronGermany's chancellor says he will not be at Beijing Olympics Americans should be paying attention to Ukraine Merkley slams 'shameful' decision by UN secretary-general to attend Beijing Olympics MORE, facing a difficult reelection race, pirouetting around the international stage searching for attention.

Then theres Germany. Basing its reluctance to do much of anything on its recent history, Berlin has it exactly backwards. Precisely this history should impel Germans to be the most steadfast and resolute opponent of efforts to change European borders by politico-military aggression. Of all European countries, Germany owes this to its neighbors, in concrete deeds not just words. Instead, it has been passive at best, and frequently unhelpful. This is NATOs core weakness, and Putin is pounding on it for all he is worth.

Germany led Europe in ignoring Reagans 1980s admonitions not to become dependent on Russian oil and gas. Incredibly, Russias Gazprom hired former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to help complete the first Nordstream pipeline, begun during his tenure. Schroeders successors effectively did nothing to mitigate Germanys vulnerability and now act as if terminating Nordstream II is unthinkable. Maybe the devil made them do it.

Germany has not come within sight of meeting NATOs 2014 Cardiff agreement that members spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. It has long refused to provide Ukraine with lethal military aid, and recently barred Estonia from sending German-origin weapons to Kyiv. Berlins offers to send 5,000 military helmets and a field hospital were greeted with well-deserved mockery and incredulity. To top it off, the commander of Germanys navy was recently fired for all but supporting Russias position.

Newly-installed Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Biden in Washington on Feb 7. They have a lot to talk about. Germany was delighted to shelter under Cold War Americas nuclear umbrella and NATOs European fastnesses. We will soon see if Germany is ready to do the right thing by Ukraine. Putin is watching closely.

John Boltonwas national security adviser toPresident TrumpDonald TrumpConservative leader O'Toole ousted in Canada Biden nominee faces scrutiny over fintech work, compensation Overnight Defense & National Security Pentagon deploying 3,000 troops to Europe MOREfrom 2018 to 2019, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006 and held senior State Department posts in 2001-2005 and 1985-1989. His most recent book isThe Room Where It Happened"(2020). He is the founder ofJohn BoltonJohn BoltonPutin's effort to split NATO may depend on Germany Belarus is risking its independence for a Russia-centric foreign policy Former Trump officials plotting effort to blunt his impact on elections: report MORE Super PAC, a political action committee supporting candidates who believe in a strong U.S. foreign policy.

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Beijing supports Moscow in negotiations with US, NATO on security foreign ministry – TASS

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BEIJING, February 3. /TASS/. Beijing recognizes and supports Moscows position in negotiations with Washington and NATO on security issues, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

"The Russian side reported on the latest developments in relations with the US and NATO, stressing the principled stance that security is indivisible. China expresses its understanding and support for this," said the Chinese top diplomat.

On December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published drafts of a treaty with the United States on security guarantees and also an agreement on measures of ensuring the security of Russia and the NATO member states. Consultations on these issues were held in Geneva on January 10. On January 12, the Russia-NATO Council met in session in Brussels and on January 13 there was a session of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna.

Russia is looking forward to a prompt response to Lavrov's written message on the indivisibility of security, which was submitted to the top diplomats of Canada, the US and several European countries on January 28.

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Creating a climate of justice: Interview with Marvin T. Brown – Shareable

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In his latest book, A Climate of Justice, Marvin T. Brown examines the racial and environmental barriers to developing a more sustainable future. During a recent interview for Shareable, Brown sat down with Nancy Southern to discuss the books key focus.

Some questions and answers have been edited for clarity.

Nancy: You make the case that the belief in American Prosperity promoted slavery in the early years of our country and at this time keeps us from making the changes needed to protect our planet. How can we move away from this force toward economic growth and turn our attention to addressing climate change?

Marvin: The first thing to say is that we must change our current system of economic growth if we want a livable planet for future generations, So, how do we change the direction of social forces that are moving us in an unsustainable direction?

I addressed this issue in my previous book, Civilizing the Economy, where I argued that we need an economy based on civic relations rather than property relations. In my view, the economys purpose is the making of provisions rather than the making of money. Making these changes would be difficult, but not impossible, if we could work together to make such a change. Instead of working together, however, we are moving further apart, which raises two questions: What is preventing us from making the necessary changes? And, how do we overcome this resistance? A Climate of Justice addresses these questions.

A just social climate, in my view, is the ethical foundation for environmentalism. A Climate of Justice author, Marvin T. Brown

I propose that we have not moved toward a sustainable economy because we live in a climate of injustice. This social climate of injustice has its origin in the Atlantic trade of people and land between Europe, Africa, and the Americas, and it has never been repaired. Some people benefited from this injustice, of course, especially land speculators, enslavers, and bankers, mostly white people. Others suffered from enslavement and other crimes against humanity.

The question we face now is whether we can create sustainable systems of provision in this climate of injustice or whether we must first change the social climate. A just social climate, in my view, is the ethical foundation for environmentalism.

Nancy: How does climate justice and a Climate of Justice differ?

Marvin: Climate justice programs seek to correct injustices caused by the uneven distribution of the negative impacts of the climate crisis. A climate of justice seeks to transform the unjust social context in which such policies have been made. Whereas climate justice sees the unequal distribution of environmental harms as a cause of the injustices, a climate of justice highlights the history of our unjust social context. Both approaches are important, but also different.

Nancy: You state that in a climate of justice, people expect social relationships, when damaged, to be repaired. Can you share your thinking on what this looks like at a systemic level? What would we see taking place around us if we lived in a climate of justice?

Marvin: The expectation is that even in relations among different groups, no group is exploited for the benefit of others, and when this has happened, repairs are made. Also, people would be included rather than excluded in policy making and evaluation. Because we live in situations where some are vulnerable and need protection, something like the civilian review boards that already exist would be much more common.

Nancy: In these difficult times, given the pandemic, climate change, concerns about our democracy, how do we support people in moving from fear of others to trusting and embracing others in a way that is needed to create a climate of justice?

Marvin: A major theme in A Climate of Justice is the difference between our personal and our social identity. If we grew up in a heterosexual social world, for example, then an LGBTQ social world may appear quite threatening. Such social worlds can define how we see ourselves. However, once I recognize that I am a person not fully defined by my social world, other social worlds will not be threatening to me. Worlds of fear, in other words, would not control my capacity to listen and learn from others. In fact, we can even join with others in exploring how such worlds are constructed and maintained.

Nancy: You speak to the importance of storytelling, and I agree it is a powerful way to bring people together and help them see their commonalities. However, in telling stories of the past, we seem to have a large percentage of Americans who dont want to acknowledge the stories of injustice. Telling those stories appears to foster greater divisions.Do you see a way to overcome the desire many have to avoid the stories of incivilities that make up the American story?

Marvin: The stories we tell shape our social worlds, but we as persons are not the same as our social worlds. Once I see myself as a person connected with other persons, I can create a distance between myself and my nations stories. A cruel story does not make me a cruel person. In fact, as I see that we all share a basic humanity, I can care about them as I would want them to care about me. Telling our nations stories of its crimes against humanity gives me a chance to become more rather than less of a person.

Nancy: So, it seems at the root of the changes you have discussed is the need for Americans to redefine what American Prosperity means.How would you describe it within the climate of justice you envision?

Marvin: The books interpretative framework will be helpful in answering this question. The framework includes the earth, our humanity, the social and the civic. Here is the chart from the book.

Briefly, in a climate of justice, the earth is treated as a habitat for all living things. All humans respect each others dignity, the stories that create our social worlds do not leave out others, and the civic is a place of civilian empowerment rather than military power. These very general visions, of course, would be achieved through policies that emerge from conversations among participants who care for justice.

Nancy: What have we not considered in this interview that you would like to add to give readers hope in our ability to create a just and sustainable future?

Marvin: Some would argue that the most significant data that influences our national mood today are changing demographics. In a few decades, the US will no longer have a white majority. For white individuals who identify with their white social identity, one can understand why they find this fact troubling. The individualism of American Prosperity forces people to either deny their social identity or to see their social identity as their personal identity.

As I have said earlier, the interpretative framework of A Climate of Justice makes a distinction between personal identity and social identity. Once we create this distance between ourselves and our social world, we can engage in conversations with others about how to repair and restore our social relationships for the sake of future generations. When vulnerable people invite us to engage in a conversation with them, in other words, we can take this opportunity to create a climate of justice.

A Climate of Justice is an open access e-book. Download a free copy here.

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NATO jets scrambled for second day in a row – The Independent Barents Observer

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Russia military aviation flew out from the Barents Sea this morning, says Stine B. Gaasland, spokesperson with the Norwegian Air Force.

They operated north of Finnmark and were as usual met by our Norwegian F-35s on NATO QRA, Gaasland says to the Barents Observer.

Several of the Russian planes were also identified by a Norwegian P-3 Orion surveillance aircraft that was on a Barents Sea mission Thursday morning.

The Norwegian pilots took images of the Russian submarine hunter as it was refueling the tanks before flying further west and south.

Gaasland says that of the planes, two long-range Tu-142 aircraft, continued out of the Barents Sea area to the Norwegian Sea and flew south. The Tu-142 is a maritime surveillance aircraft aimed at finding enemy submarines.

According to British media, Typhoon fighter jets on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) from Lossiemouth airbase were scrambled to meet the two Russian planes approaching UK area of interest.

This is the second day in a row that several Russian military planes flew out to international airspace northwest of the Kola Peninsula and continued over the Barents Sea with some of them flying all south to the North Sea region.

On Wednesday, February 2, four long-range aircraft, two Tu-142 sub-hunters and two Tu-95 bombers, were identified by Norwegian and British fighter jets scrambled by NATO.

A nations sovereign airspace extends 12 nautical miles beyond its coastline over the territorial waters. Although, Russia has never since the breakup of the Soviet Union violated Norwegian airspace, there are several reasons for scrambling fighter jets when a radar station sees unidentified foreign planes approaching.

Per Erik Solli is a former F-16 pilot at Bod Air Station and now senior advisor with Nord University. He explains why NATO fighter jets maintain alert readiness at all hours.

The response time is 15 minutes from a scramble order is given to the fighter aircraft are airborne, he says to the Barents Observer.

Time is essential Solliunderlines.

If the flight time to the intercept somewhere outside northern Norway is 20 minutes, a Russian aircraft flying at 450 knots has flown260 nautical miles from the scramble order is given to the Norwegian fighter aircraft appearing on their side.

Waiting until a hostile aircraft has entered sovereign airspace before sending the fighter jets up in the air could be too late. Therefore, intercepts of military aircraft in international airspace in peacetime is normal and ordinary activity.

Solli says this is a normal procedure also for the Russians.

Russian fighter aircraft regularly intercept Norwegian or Allied military surveillance aircraft in the Barents Sea in international airspace far from the Russian border, he explains.

When piloting the F-16s, Per Erik Solli many times met Russian pilots in the skies over the Barents- and Norwegian Seas.

Everyone is professional and courteous and it is quite common to greet each other with a hand wave.

Solli says there were even times withfriendly humor from cockpit to cockpit.

The Russian aircrew sometimes showed us what type of magazines they were reading. When we intercepted Russian intelligence aircraft who listen in on our military radio frequencies, they sometimes used to hold up a sign in the window with the letters and numbers in our flight callsign. The gesture was a display of friendly humor among aviators.

Per Erik Solli says todayslevel of activity is about 20% of the level we experienced in the Cold War.

Norways Air Force routinely identifies Russian aircraft approaching from the north. In 2021, F-16s from Bod were scrambled 34 times and identified 58 Russian military planesoutside Norwegian air space.

The first Norwegian F-35s to meet Russian military planes are the ones that are on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) for NATO fromEvenes air base above the Arctic Circle. Further south, F-35s from rland air station take over. If the military planes continue south over the North Sea, like today and yesterday, the mission is handed over to British fighter jets in airspace ensuring they are continually shadowed.

British Air Traffic Control has previously saidRussias long-range military aviationis posing ahazard to civilian air trafficas they fly with transponders turned off making it difficult for other planes to know their positions.

Most commercial flights from the Middle East and northern Europe have routes in the skies above the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea when flying to and from destinations in North America.

So does air traffic between Iceland and Europe.

There is currently a group of navy warships from the Baltic Fleet and the Northern Fleet sailingsouthwest of Ireland towards anannounced exercise areain the North Atlantic.

Last week, several of the largest warships in Russias Northern Fleetexercised in the Barents- and Norwegian Seas.

Russias Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, recentlysent a requestto all member states in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) where he asks for written answers on whether the countries will comply with commitments not to strengthen their security at the expense of others.

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On the ground with paratroopers deploying to back NATO amid Ukraine crisis – ArmyTimes.com

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This story was first published inthe Fayetteville Observer.

FORT BRAGGA first wave of soldiers boarded C-17s at Fort Bragg on Thursday, as paratroopers with the 82nd Airborne Division and soldiers part of the XVIII Airborne Corps deployed to Europe.

Thetroops are going in support of NATO allies and partners in deterring Russian aggression, said Capt. Matthew Visser, a spokesman for the XVIII Airborne Corps.

The soldiers of XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division are always ready as Americas contingency corps (and) have the responsibility to mobilize on a moments notice to deploy supporting whatever operation it is, Visser said.

About 1,700 paratroopers who are part of an infantry brigade combat team will go to Poland, as the XVIII Airborne Corps moves a joint task force headquarters to Germany.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday that the troops are deploying to bolster capabilities inside NATOs eastern flank. after Russian President Vladimir Putin has massed troops on Ukraines border for months, raising concerns of an imminent incursion or full-scale invasion.

The Pentagon estimates there are more than 100,000 Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

President Joe Biden has been clear, that the U.S. will respond to the growing threat, Kirby said.

Kirby said Wednesday that U.S. officials dont know if Russia has made a final decision to further invade the Ukraine, but Putin continues to add more forces to the western part of his country and Belarus.

Were going to be prepared to defend our NATO allies if it comes to that, Kirby said. Hopefully, it wont come to that.

U.S. Army soldiers with the 18th Airborne Corps. sit with their gear as they wait to board a plane for deployment to Europe Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022 from Fort Bragg, N.C. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

Visser said paratroopers in the division and soldiers in the Corps prepare for different operations, which have included deployments in recent years to Haiti or Kabul, Afghanistan for a noncombatant evacuation operation in August.

He said the deployment to Europe communicates a message thats connected to the units lineage during World War II in Normandy, Bastogne and Luxembourg.

This is why people choose to come to Fort Bragg Its the most ready, and when you come to Fort Bragg,its no surprise that this could be the scenario that youre in that you get to deploy and that you get to support what the country needs, Visser said.

Lt. Col. Brad Jordanis among those deploying soldiers, Hes been in the Army for 20 years with previous deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

He said that there are a lot of unknowns but that the Fort Bragg soldiers are ready to join forces with allied partners if the NATO response force requires that coordination.

I know that sounds new for a lot of people, but it doesnt really go away, so that continued working with our NATO allies has not stopped, Jordan said.

Jordan said he is confident with the training the soldiers have received.

Personally, he said, this will not be the first deployment that his 13-year-old son and 11-year-old daughter have gone through to experience him being gone.

But hes left them with something while hes gone.

Each one of my kids have half of a dog tag, Jordan said. I have the other half. It just reminds them that Im there.

Soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division get themselves and their gear weighed as the prepare to deploy from Fort Bragg to Eastern Europe on Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022. (Andrew Craft /The Fayetteville Observer via AP)

Visser said families that remain on the home front will be supported by a variety of Army Community Services and Fort Bragg readiness groups.

Visser said it is not known how long the mission will last.

From the moment they stepped into the Green Ramp passenger shed on Thursday, troops were briefed by leaders and had the chance to participate in a benediction.

We want to make sure that every soldier that leaves this airfield, that gets onto an aircraft, understands what their mission is, know that theyre supported by the soldiers to the left and to the right, and know that their leadership is here to take care of them to make sure that they get back safe, Visser said.

Soldiers also had support from veteran and military service organizations.

Roland Rochester, a Marine veteran and national recruiter of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, said hes been shaking hands with Fort Bragg troops that have deployed and redeployed since 2002.

I tell them to be safe, Rochester said.

The USO of North Carolina was also on site to hand out food and personal care kits consisting of toothpaste, shaving cream and other toiletries.

When the paratroopers and the soldiers are prepared to deploy, the USO is right there with them, said Barry Morris, a regional communications manager for the USO. Our mission is strengthening Americas service members by keeping them connected (to) family, home, country.

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On NATO’s front lines, a difference of opinion on how to best respond to Russia – CBC News

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With NATO pondering how to appropriately respond to Russia's mobilization along theUkrainian border, a small element of possible deterrence arrived this weekin Rukla, Lithuania.

Flatbed railcars, loaded with armoured infantry vehicles from Germany, were met by soldiers from the nearby NATO base,who promptly unloaded the noisy, tracked machines and drove them off in a convoyalong the narrow, rural roads.

The vehicles and the troops that man themare replacing othersreturning to Germany, as one rotation ends and another begins all part of a NATO strategy in the region known asEnhanced Forward Presence, which dates back to 2017.

In Lithuania, Germany is providing the core of the battle group for the alliance, explained commanding officer, German Lt.-Col.Hagen Ruppelt.

"We are here because the Lithuanian government and the Baltic states are perceiving a threat around them," hetold CBC News during a visit to see a small part of the German operation.

Similar NATO basesare in place in Estonia and Latvia, led by British and Canadian commanders respectively and all three with roughly 1,200 soldiers each.

As of late, the pressing political question for the 72-year-old NATO has been whether it urgently needs to further beef up its troops and equipmentin the Baltic states that border Russia.

Or, alternatively, show a more restrained stancein the hopes of not provoking the Kremlin.

Tensions have soared in the region amid the buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine's border, prompting fears that an invasion could be on the horizon. Western military experts estimate there are already as many as 127,000 Russian troops near theborder and tens of thousand moretaking up positions inside Belarus,within 200kilometers ofKyiv.

Russia denieshaving any such plans and insists it's just running military drills.It has also said its objective is to negotiate a security deal with the United States that would see foreign forces removed from the countries along its border, ensure Ukraine is off limits for NATO troops and providea guarantee Ukraine would never be admitted to the alliance.

The U.S., Europe, and NATO have rejected Russia's demands but are offeringa dialogue on a range of strategic issues.

But while the U.S. and manyNATO allies are stepping up their response plans in eastern Europe amid the standoff, Germanyremains an outlier.

WATCH | Germany holds off onadditional support for Ukraine:

Germany has vast commercial interests with Russia and buys huge amounts of natural gas from the country,leading to accusations that its government is putting its commercial interests first.

The Nord Stream 2 pipelinebuilt by Russia, with extensive German helphas been completed and is awaiting final regulatory approval.The project is set to double Russia's gas export capacity.

But the United States has vowed the gas will never flowif Russia attacks.

Germany, on the other hand,has been non-committal about the pipeline's fate should that happen.

The German battle group commander, however,insists the only considerations that matter for troop deployments are strategic ones not economic.

"The more forces you bring in, that can be perceived as a provocation and an increase of tensions.That is not our intent," said Ruppelt.

In an interview with CBC News in the capital of Vilnius,Lithuania's deputy defence minister emphatically rejected the logic that bolstering forces along NATO's eastern flank or directly helping Ukraine will inflame the situation and provoke Russia.

"I think deploying more troops to the eastern flank is the only rightresponse to the current escalation,"said Margiris Abukeviius.

"Some say this would continue the [Russian] escalation,but I really believe that the only thing that could stop the Russians from escalating further is credible military force on the other side."

Abukeviius insisted his remarks should not be taken as criticism of the German NATO role in his country,which he says is deeply valued. "When it comes to Germany,we have full confidence.They are really one of the key contributors to our security and deterrence."

For Lithuania,the massive military presence now gathered on Russia's border with Ukraine,as well as in neighbouring Belarus, amounts to an existential threat.

Lithuania shares a 700-kilometreborder with Belarusto the east,and a 300-kilometer border with Russia's European enclave, Kaliningrad,to the west.

Along with its soldiers, Russia has also moved in mobile hospitals,pontoon bridges and its most sophisticated anti-missile interceptors,the S-400. None of those deployments are standard for typical exercises,say military experts.

"I think this worries a lot of people,seeing how many Russian troops are gathered around;that thiscould go out of control and that it wouldn't stop in Ukraine," saidAbukeviius.

Germany's insistence on not trying to agitate Moscow by keeping its troop levels consistent in eastern Europe is increasingly incontrast to several other NATO nations.

On Thursday,four F-16s from Denmark arrived at a NATO airbase in Lithuania to bolster the alliance's air-policing capabilities in the region. Lithuania's president was scheduled to hold a welcoming ceremony Friday for the 80 or so Danish personnel accompanying the aircraft.

The U.S., the U.K.,Norway, Spain, France andthe Czech Republicare also weighing sending more troops into eastern Europe.

Germany has also decided not to provide any lethal assistance directly to Ukraine,opting instead to send 5,000 helmets,along with medical supplies.

While the Ukrainiangovernment has said it is satisfied with the level of German support,some inside the country are not. Kyiv mayor and former champion boxer Vitali Klitschko called the German offer "a joke" that left him "speechless."

Germany has also been criticized for holding up some shipments of anti-tank missiles that countriessuch as Estonia and Lithuaniaare trying to send to Ukraine, by not issuingpermits for the German-origin weapons.

In some ways,Germany's situation mirrors Canada's,which holdsacommand role at the NATO base next door, in Latvia.

The Trudeau government has also refused repeated requests from the Ukrainian government and pro-Ukraine groups at home to send armamentsand is insteadproviding non-combat military trainers and intelligence assistance.

In the Baltics,there is overwhelming public support for a stronger NATO presence,says political scientist Margarita eelgyt,who teaches at Vilnius University.

"In the last year,86 per centof Lithuanians were very much in favour of us having these [NATO] forces.And there is a quite high percentage of Lithuanians thinking that these forces would help us to withstand Russian potential aggression," she said.

"So it's a very big reassurance for the people who constantly feel unsafe due to Russia,and now, also,Belarus."

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The return of the libertarian moment – The Week Magazine

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February 2, 2022

February 2, 2022

Do you remember the "libertarian moment"?

I wouldn't blame you if not. For a few years around the end of the Obama administration, though, it looked as if the right just might coalesce around restrained foreign policy, opposition to electronic surveillance and other threats to civil liberties, and enthusiasm for an innovative economy, very much including the tech industry. Beyond policy, the libertarian turn was associated with a hip affect that signaled comfort with pop culture. Even though they were personally far from cool, The New York Times compared the movement's electoral figureheads, the father-and-son duo Ron and Rand Paul, to grunge bands Nirvana and Pearl Jam.

In retrospect, those descriptions seem naive. Less than a year after the Times feature was published, the announcement of Donald Trump's presidential campaign sounded the death knell of the libertarian moment (along with Rand Paul's own bid for the presidency).In another unforeseen twist, though, the pendulum seems to now be swinging back toward libertarian instincts.

While in office, Trump had deployed an apocalyptic idiom that clashed dramatically with the libertarians'characteristic optimism. Although personally indifferent to ideas, Trump also inspired a cohort of intellectuals who denounced libertarians' ostensible indifference to the common good and proposed a more assertive role for government in directing economic and social life.

But as the pandemic has continued, opposition to restrictions on personal conduct, suspicion of expert authority, and free speech for controversial opinions have become dominant themes in center-right argument and activism. The symbolic villain of the new libertarian moment is Anthony Fauci. Its heroes include Joe Rogan, whose podcast has been a platform for vaccine skeptics, advocates of ivermectin and other dubious treatments for COVID, and other challenges to the expert consensus.

Appeals to personal freedom, limited government, and epistemological skepticism against pandemic authorities have some basis in the organized libertarian movement. Early in the pandemic, the American Institute for Economic Research issued the so-called Great Barrington Declaration, which rejected lockdowns and argued (before vaccines became available) that mitigation strategies should be limited to the most vulnerable portion of the population. In the Senate, Paul (Ky.) has been the leading critic of Fauci and the CDC. Long-standing libertarian positions have also been energized by the pandemic. The disruption of public education, for example, has revitalized the school choice movement.

But it would be a mistake to think these appeals succeed because Americans have any newfound appreciation for Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, or other libertarian thinkers. More than any coherent political theory, the libertarian revival draws on inarticulate but powerful currents of anti-authoritarianism in American culture. In a blog post drawing on the work of historian David Hackett Fischer, the writer Tanner Greer argues that this disposition is an inheritance from the Scots-Irish settlers of colonial America. Concentrating on its recent expressions, my predecessor Matthew Walther described the defiant, individualistic, risk-embracing sensibility as "barstool conservatism" after Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, who joins Rogan among its most prominent representatives.

Whatever its origins, the new quasi-libertarianism is an obstacle to the managerial tendencies that increasingly define the center-left. More than opposition to the government as such, it revolves around opposition to administrative restrictions imposed for one's own good. If the old libertarianism was obsessed with the risk of ideological totalitarianism, the new version concentrates on the influence of human resources bureaucrats, public health officials, and neighborhood busybodies.

Its idealized enemy isn't the commissar. It's the high school guidance counselor.

That reorientation from philosophical to mundane grievances iskey to its demographic appeal. Decades ago, the left benefitted from its association with resistance to busybodies. Think of Frank Zappa and other musicians who opposed efforts to place warning labels on records they considered obscene. Today, outspoken progressives are prominent among those demanding censorship of putative misinformation including Rogan's removal from the Spotify platform that hosts his podcast. An occasionally juvenile sense of defying petty tyranny helps explain why the libertarian revival appeals so powerfully to young men (and why spokesmen like Rogan and Portnoy often have backgrounds in sports entertainment). Rather than a defense of natural rights, it's an instinctive dislike of being bossed around.

The inchoate libertarian revival isn't just the political equivalent of cutting class, though. The unimpressive performance of schools, the FDA, and other vehicles of public policy have undermined the ambitious goals Democrats hoped to pursue under the Biden Administration. It's hard to make the case for free college, increased educational spending, or single-payer healthcare with the institutions that would have to deliver these benefits seem unwilling or unable to do their current jobs. Progressives don't want to hear it, but the era of big government is probably over again.

In the past, that conclusion might have been celebrated by conservatives. Today, it's more controversial. During Trump's presidency, some theorists entertained hopes that Republicans might become the "party of the state." In addition to conventional hopes for restricting pornography and halting or reversing the legalization of drugs, that includes proposals for sweeping industrial policies to promote domestic manufacturing and cash benefits for married parents to promote traditional family patterns. Rejecting libertarian confidence in spontaneous order, these intellectuals argued that both the economy and the culture need to be intentionally guided toward the common good.

The New Right's challenge to libertarian optimism that order, prosperity, or other conservative goals would come about automatically is often insightful. But it's their hope that the dour and devout can achieve theoretically rational outcomesby capturing and redirecting some of the same institutions that have been discredited during the pandemic that now seems utopian.

Iconoclastic podcasters and the "Freedom Convoy" of truckers protesting vaccine mandates may not have been what journalists and activists had in mind when they spoke of the libertarian moment five years ago. But they're the vanguard of its sequeltoday.

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The return of the libertarian moment - The Week Magazine

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‘Worthy of a Bond villain’: the bizarre history of libertarian attempts to create independent cities – The Conversation AU

Posted: at 3:48 pm

Late last year, El Salvadors president Nayib Bukele announced plans to build Bitcoin City a tax-free territory in the countrys east.

The city will use the cryptocurrency and be powered by the nearby Conchuagua volcano. According to Bukele, there will be:

Residential areas, commercial areas, services, museums, entertainment, bars, restaurants, airport, port, rail [..] [but] no income tax, zero property tax, no contract tax, zero city tax and zero CO2 emissions.

Whether or not Bitcoin City eventuates, it joins a long and bizarre history of libertarian-inspired attempts to start independent cities and countries.

The generous financial incentives in Bitcoin City are aimed at encouraging foreign investment.

However, the plan has quickly been derided by finance commentators as something worthy of a Bond villain. There are doubts construction will ever begin.

As the Australian Financial Review observes, Bitcoin City is likely nothing more than a splashy distraction from Bukeles economic woes.

But Bukele is not the only one to be tempted to set up a new territory, with new (or no) rules.

In a 2009 TED Talk, American economist Paul Romer argued developing nations should partner with foreign countries or corporations to create autonomous model cities.

Under his plan, host states would lease large tracts of undeveloped land to developed states, who would administer the territory according to their own legal system. The citys residents would largely come from the developing state, but the administrators of the city would be appointed by (and accountable to) the developed state. Residents could vote with their feet by either migrating to or from the model city.

Read more: How El Salvador and Nigeria are taking different approaches to digital currencies plus, are we living in a simulation? The Conversation Weekly podcast transcript

Romer argues such cities would attract significant international investment because their legal architecture would insulate them from any political turmoil present in their host state. Notwithstanding the strong neo-colonial or neo-imperial overtones, several states have considered adopting Romers proposition.

In 2011, the Honduran Congress amended its constitution to facilitate the development of Romers idea. Cities built within special development regions would not be subject to Honduran law or taxation. Instead, they would be self-governing under a unique legal framework.

After legal disputes about whether this breached Honduran national sovereignty, the plan was revived in 2015. Under the new plan, an investor that builds infrastructure in a site designated as a zone for employment and economic development (ZEDE) will be granted quasi-sovereign authority. The investor will be permitted to impose and collect income and property taxes, and establish its own education, health, civil service, and social security systems.

Under the ZEDE law, the president appoints a committee to oversee all of the model cities as well as setting the baseline rules and standards investors must follow. Reflecting the ideological backing of the idea, the first committee, announced in 2014, was heavily comprised of libertarians and former advisers to United States President Ronald Reagan. In 2020, the first site was launched, but development does not appear to have commenced.

The Honduran plan involves a country leasing (temporarily or perhaps permanently) sovereign rights over its territory. Other projects have sought to build a new country on the sea.

Since 2008, attention has focused on the California-based Sea Steading Institute.

Founded by American libertarian Patri Friedman (grandson of Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman) and initially financed by billionaire Peter Thiel, the institute sought to build habitable structures on the high seas outside the jurisdiction (and taxation) of any state.

Read more: Why is Australia 'micronation central'? And do you still have to pay tax if you secede?

Although their website suggests sea steading could offer significant benefits to humanity globally, making money free of regulatory burden is the primary motivation. Backers are interested in sea steadings potential to peacefully test new ideas for governance so the most successful can then inspire change in governments around the world.

No city has yet been built. In 2017 negotiations with French Polynesia for the development of floating cities within their territorial waters stalled when community pressure forced the government to withdraw. Many wondered whether facilitating the tax evasion of the worlds greatest fortunes would actually be beneficial for the islands.

Other proposals have not bothered to ask anyone whether they can get started. In the 1960s, several American businessmen sought to establish independent states upon coral reefs off the coasts of California and Florida. Both fell apart under pressure from the US government.

In the early 1970s, US libertarian Michael Oliver tried to finance the construction of a new country - the Republic of Minerva - on a submerged atoll in the Pacific Ocean between Tonga and Fiji. There would be no tax and no social welfare in his laissez-faire paradise.

Over the second half of 1971, Olivers team ferried sand on barges from Fiji to raise the atoll above sea level and commenced basic construction. Oliver envisioned creating 2,500 acres of habitable land elevated around two and a half to three metres above high tide. Floating cities and an ocean resort would also be built.

Progress proved hard going. Only 15 acres of land had been reclaimed by the time Olivers funds were exhausted. Nearby countries were also watching with alarm. In June 1972, King Tupou IV declared Tongan sovereignty over the atoll and ejected Olivers team.

Oliver abandoned Minerva, but in 1982, another group of American libertarians attempted to reassert and restore the republic. After spending three weeks moored in the lagoon, they were expelled by the Tongan military. Today, Minerva has been more or less reclaimed by the sea.

Perhaps they should have invested in Bitcoin.

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Anti-egalitarians, libertarians most likely to dismiss the risk of COVID-19 – ScienceBlog.com

Posted: at 3:48 pm

A study published in the journalRisk Analysissuggests that people who embrace the ideologies of libertarianism and anti-egalitarianism are more likely to disregard the risks of COVID-19 and oppose government actions.

Assistant professor Yilang Peng of the University of Georgia analyzed data from two surveys to investigate the relationship between attitudes toward COVID-19 and specific political ideologies. The first survey of approximately 500 Americans asked participants to specify their party identity, rate their political views (from extremely liberal to extremely conservative), and indicate their agreement on a scale with various statements related to Social Dominance Orientation (related to equality and the distribution of resources among groups), libertarianism, and other ideological factors. The participants included roughly equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents/other party.

In his statistical analysis of the data, Peng found that individuals who endorse principles of libertarianism and anti-egalitarianism were less concerned about COVID-19 and more likely to oppose government actions such as mask mandates and vaccination. (Libertarians uphold the principles of individual liberty and generally oppose government involvement in citizens private lives and economic activities, while the principles of anti-egalitarians are contrary to those of social equality and fairness.)

To test his initial findings, Peng conducted a second analysis of data from another survey conducted by the American National Election Studies (ANES) before and after the 2020 U.S. presidential election. A sample of 7,449 adults participated in both surveys. The questions were different than those in Pengs survey but covered the same concepts of political ideologies and attitudes toward COVID-19. His analysis of the data revealed the same results: that individuals who endorse libertarianism and anti-egalitarianism are more likely to oppose government responses to COVID-19.

Political ideology incorporates ideas, worldviews, and issue positions that occupy multiple dimensions. For example, citizens may hold a liberal position regarding economic issues (such as social welfare), but a conservative stance on social issues like abortion. Past research has documented the association between political ideology, often measured with a liberal-conservative spectrum, and attitudes toward COVID-19.

Peng argues that different dimensions of political ideology can pose distinct effects on attitudes toward sociopolitical issues, including science topics like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies such as self-driving cars. Simply identifying as a liberal or conservative does not cover the full scope of political ideology and world views, says Peng. Since political ideology reflects citizens ideas about how an ideal society should be structured, it would naturally influence citizens preferences for societal responses to a crisis such as the COVID-19 outbreak.

Both survey analyses found that trust in science was impacted by an individuals political orientation and party identification and also shaped attitudes toward the pandemic. This contributes to accumulating evidence that trust is a crucial variable in risk communication about science issues, says Peng.

In addition, the data showed that political orientation and party identity still play a role in shaping COVID-19 attitudes. Peng argues that such findings confirm that elite cueing is a powerful mechanism that shapes public perceptions of science issues. An examination of the role of ideological components may advance our theoretical understanding of why certain science issues become polarized while also providing implications for the design of communication campaigns and policies that effectively resonate with partisan audiences.

For example, prior research has observed that COVID-19 communications from left-wing activists and politicians largely focus on the themes of care and fairness. This might not resonate well with people across the political spectrum. In particular, says Peng, individuals with anti-egalitarian views may not be highly attentive to the enhancement of equality and the protection of vulnerable populations.

He adds that future research can test if communication strategies that address libertarian ideologies for example, framing public health interventions as a way to enhance the liberty and freedom of citizens and to give people more choices and autonomy can better appeal to partisan audiences.

About SRA

The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980 and has publishedRisk Analysis: An International Journal,the leading scholarly journal in the field, continuously since 1981. For more information, visitwww.sra.org.

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This Libertarian Won His Local Election, but the Politicians He’d Audit Refuse To Seat Him – Reason

Posted: at 3:48 pm

Kevin Gaughen is a real estate broker and the executive director of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party. He has lived in Silver Spring Township, near the state capital of Harrisburg, for 10 years and has concerns about how his town's finances have been managed.

In 2021, Gaughen decided to run for township auditor as a write-in candidate. On Election Day, he mobilized friends to hand out cards to potential voters that read, "Write In Kevin Gaughen for Auditor." Improbably, he won. Now, however, Silver Spring Township's manager won't let him do his job.

On January 3, Gaughen showed up to the year's first meeting of the board of supervisors, a five-person board that "govern[s] and supervise[s]" the township. To his surprise, his swearing-in was not on the agenda. According to Gaughen's account, when he raised the issue during the public comment section, the board insisted that it had been an oversight and that he would be sworn in at the next meeting. But days later, the township manager, Raymond Palmer, sent an email stating that, in fact, the township had retained an accounting firm, Maher Duessel, to serve as auditors and that "the elected auditor has duties lifted when a Township appoints an auditing firm." (Palmer did not respond to an email or text messages requesting comment).

It is within a township's authority to appoint an accounting firm to serve the audit function. Silver Spring Township appears to have retained Maher Duessel since at least 2010. (A representative for Maher Duessel did not respond to emails or a voicemail requesting comment.)

Simply hiring an accountant for the audits is not, in itself, suspicious, says Jennifer Moore, chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party, who also serves as an auditor in the township where she lives. Her local board contracts with an accountant, which she feels is necessary for larger townships with bigger budgets. But, as she tells Reason, "we do still definitely have a role: We're elected by the people to make sure that everything's on the up-and-up." In Moore's case, the firm compiles the audit, and then the board of elected auditors pores through the report for anything that may require further scrutiny.

A Pennsylvania township auditor is not a particularly prestigious or powerful position. Salaries are capped at $2,000 annuallyhalf that for smaller municipalities. Auditors scrutinize their township's finances and deliver an annual report to the state capital. They also set the salaries for the board of supervisors. Each township has three auditors, who serve staggered six-year terms.

In addition to setting supervisor salaries and financial auditing and reporting, township auditors may investigate "official records of the district justices," similar to small claims courts, "to determine the amount of fines and costs paid over or due the township." If a township is writing too many tickets or assessing an inordinate amount of fines, the board of auditors would have the authority to investigate. The board of auditors also has the power to issue subpoenas to investigate members of the board of supervisors and to assess fines to any supervisor who misuses taxpayer funds. An accounting firm would be unable to serve these functions.

"I see them putting projects out, and I don't believe they're doing fair bidding on them," Gaughen toldReason. "I see them handing deals out" without putting it through a "fair bidding process There's a lot of items of concern that I see in this township, and I thought, 'I want to get involved, I want to open the books, I want to start attending these township meetings, and I want to know exactly what's going on here.'"

It is not clear whether the board of supervisors is even allowed to rely solely on an accounting firm for audits. "They just simply can't do that, under election law," says Moore, who also has an MBA. "It's a violation of the election code. The election code says that they may hire a CPA, but they still have to have a board of auditors." Indeed, state law stipulates that if an accountant or firm is appointed, "the board of auditors shall not audit, settle or adjust the accounts audited by the appointee but shall perform the other duties of the office." (A representative from the Governor's Center for Local Government Services, which oversees the township audit reports, did not respond to voicemails requesting comment.)

In trying to determine what his next steps were, Gaughen sought out the previous office winner. Chris Trafton ran as a Republican in 2019, though he self-identifies as an independent. In an interview with Reason, Trafton described an experience very similar to Gaughen's: Tired of seeing "shenanigans" in local governance, Trafton gravitated toward the township auditor role and mounted a successful write-in campaign based on word-of-mouth. When he showed up to be certified in his new role, town officials seemed surprised to see him. He was informed that "we've been intending to close down those [positions] in the election" anyway, since with a third-party auditing company, "there's no point in having auditors at all."

Trafton also shared with Reason a copy of an email from the township manager at the time, Theresa Eberly. Eberly's email used nearly identical language as Palmer's email to Gaughen, stating that "the elected auditor has duties lifted when a township appoints an auditing firm." (Eberly, who has since moved to a position in a different town, did not respond to emailed questions).

Currently, on the Cumberland County website, Silver Spring Township lists three auditors. Two, Gaughen and Trafton, have yet to be seated; the third, Kathleen Albright, has apparently moved out of the township and has not been replaced. (Albright responded to a text message, but has so far declined to participate in an interview for this article.)

It is entirely possible that the Silver Spring Township board of supervisors is operating in good faith, but by refusing to seat an auditor and instead relying solely on its own hand-picked replacement, the board is not only violating state law, but also defying the most basic principles of good governance. In Gaughen's words, the auditor is "a watchdog for the citizens," put in place to "make sure that economic malfeasance isn't going on. And I don't think that someone hired, who has a financial interest from the township, should be auditing the people that hired them."

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This Libertarian Won His Local Election, but the Politicians He'd Audit Refuse To Seat Him - Reason

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