Daily Archives: February 3, 2022

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After two years of a demoralizing global pandemic: Canadians are highly polarized, deeply divided and just itching to lash out.

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We all have them in our social networks: the old high school classmate who was out cheering on the Freedom Convoy as it passed Friday; the childhood friend who posted pictures of herself crying tears of joy from a highway overpass decked out in Canadian flags; the cousins wife who posted a picture of a transport truck sporting profanities aimed at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

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The protest may have ridden a wave of support on its cross-country trek to Ottawa to oppose vaccine mandates in particular and pandemic restrictions in general. But it may have difficulty maintaining its appeal after a weekend during which the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier was desecrated, staff at a local homeless shelter harassed, the memorial statue of Terry Fox dressed up and Ottawa police, city workers and small business owners intimidated by a maskless mob flouting public health rules in the name of freedom.

Some early adopters may be feeling sheepish now, having spoken out in favour of movement where far-right groups felt comfortable displaying Confederate flags, Nazi swastikas and QAnon logos. But others are digging in their heels claiming fake news or that any malfeasance was committed by instigators looking to undermine their cause.

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The group behind the blockade of big rigs that has downtown Ottawa paralyzedmay call itself Canadian Unity, but it is having the opposite effect on the public at large.

Social media is being weaponized . Neighbours are turning against each other in virtual community forums where they usually share tips on contractors and seek help finding their lost pets. And many people find themselves torn over whether to unfollow friends and family who have shown their true colours.

All of this, however, is a barometer indicating the state of the Canadian polity 23 months into a demoralizing global pandemic: it is highly polarized, deeply divided and just itching to lash out.

The temptation is strong to turn away, to block our ears to a toxic discourse especially among the vast majority of Canadians who are vaccinated and watching from a distance (with apologies to Ottawa residents who are caught in the middle of this standoff). But we do so at our own peril.

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Political leaders must not be too dismissive of this outpouring of outrage and anger outright.

Extremist elements may be magnetically attracted to this cause and its organizers may have far-right leanings. But most Canadians who waved flags on viaducts are not a fringe minority as Trudeau called the demonstrators Monday in an outdoor remote press conference shortly after he announced he had tested positive for COVID-19. There must be a recognition that this event was fuelled by many ordinary Canadians fed up with the fallout from the pandemic and seeking an outlet for their frustrations.

The thrall of populism is as strong and intoxicating as the diesel fumes wafting in the air around Parliament Hill these days. And Canadians are not immune.

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The fact is, a growing segment of the increasingly weary population is becoming evermore susceptible to the empty promises of simplistic slogans, the rejection of science, misinformation and distrust of government and institutions. They are being lured down a rabbit hole in incremental steps that could nevertheless have far-reaching consequences for Canadian democracy and society.

Even if Canadians voted in another Liberal minority government only a few short months ago, many did so out of resignation. Trudeau is a target of exasperation and enmity from far beyond the truckers idling their engines to keep warm in Ottawa. He has to be aware of this reality.

So too, should provincial premiers. It may be lost on members of the Freedom Convoy that many of the regulations they oppose were actually introduced by the provinces, but even Franois Legault, who has maintained his popularity despite Quebec having the harshest public health restrictions in the country, should pay heed. With a proposed anti-vax tax that is more of a ploy to placate the vaccinated, Legault risks provoking a similar backlash.

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Trudeau ruled out dialogue with the protest organizers. But without giving in to irresponsible demands, he and other political leaders must open a new conversation with disaffected Canadians at their wits end after almost two years.

In turn, Canadians need to stand on guard for democracy. Weve witnessed up close how quickly ugliness can be unleashed when anger, ignorance and apathy get the better of a dispirited population. We must not take our politics for granted or let it degenerate into incivility and disrespect.

This country needs to find an antidote to populism and fast.

ahanes@postmedia.com

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Hanes: Beware the intoxicating thrall of populism - Montreal Gazette

And just like that, week one of Foxs newest showJesse Watters Primetimeis coming to a close. What have we learned from the hour-long program that billed itself as a platform for exposing scoundrels and celebrating patriots?

In the premiere episode, Jesse Watters, who has spent two decades at Fox, cohosts The Five, and previously had his own weekend show, promised viewers he would use his new program to stand up for regular Americans who have been disrespected for far too long. Sounds familiar, and indeed Watters used the opening monologue to try on his best Tucker Carlson impression, mimicking his more notorious colleagues faux-populist rage toward nameless elites while condemning Wall Street corruption and Americas shamefully mismanaged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ignorant, greedy leaders sold out our factories and pride to the Chinese Communists for unpatriotic profits, Watters said. Sick cyber warriors divided us by race to distract us from the real division: class.

Carlsons show has long dominated Fox Newss ratings, with more than 3 million average viewers on a nightly basis last year and an endless stream of viral clips to prove it, and it seems that Wattersand the networkknow a winning formula when they see it. To borrow a phrase from the NFL analysts, its a copycat league, and Watters show, for now at least, serves up the same Fox Corpapproved right-wing populism that viewers have grown accustomed to during Carlsons reign as the king of cable news. Though, Watters does offer viewers a lighter, more comedic touch than the self-serious host runningthe 8 p.m. hour. Rather than scowling at liberal elites with Tucker Facepinched eyebrows, head cocked to the side, mouth slightly ajarWatters wears a near-constant smirk. Rather than hamming up the righteous indignation, he casually laughs off figures like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, often lazily dropping in barely relevant movie clips mid-monologue to hit punchlines or drive home points for him. Though, Watterss reliance on cheap humor from his production crew might be for the best, given that his droning, one-track voice lacks the range necessary to believably sell fist-slamming-desk rage and conviction. Perhaps sensing his constraints as a solo act, the showrunners at Fox packed the opening week of Watterss show with A-list Trumpworld guests, including Mike Pence, Jeanine Pirro, Dan Bongino, and Eric Trump.

Presentation aside, the similarities between Watters and Carlsons programming are hard to miss, and it is difficult to imagine a world in which the formers show exists without the latter laying the groundwork for it. Like Carlson, a Trinity College alumnus, Watters, also a Trinity grad, is suddenly a champion of the working class who is speaking out against corporate powers and Democratic leaders who he believes have abandoned blue-collar Americans. Carlson even has Watterswho, not too long ago, was Foxs de facto spring break correspondentdiscussing far-right European populism, with the two weighing in on Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbns immigration policies during an episode of The Five this week. Somehow, the pair seem to have developed the same fascination with why female cartoons are now dressing less sexy, a description that Carlson used last week while fuming over the makeovers of M&Ms candy mascots. Watters, presumably after seeing all the attention that Carlson received for speaking out against sexually unappealing animated chocolates, spent a segment of his Wednesday show lamenting Disneys decision to change Minnie Mouses wardrobe. I cant believe Im actually saying this, but Disney is totally changing Minnie Mouse. Disney is putting Minnie Mouse in a pantsuit, said Watters, before asserting that Disney executives must be bored out of their minds and theyre just making it all uncomfortable for the rest of us.

Another cause that Watters jumped on board with this week is the day tradersmaking a fortune or a name for themselves outside the confines of corporate America. This appeared to be a reference to incidents like last years GameStop short squeeze, when small-time traders helped the video game retailers stock surge in an attempt to beat out major financial firms that were attempting to short its stock. At the time, Carlson praised the Reddit guys who rallied around GameStop, saying that they sent a message to Wall Street. Likewise, Watters has made appeals to this demographic of young and very online traders, some of whom have criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosis involvement in the stock market. So while Nancy slow-walks antitrust legislation to break up Big Tech, her family [is] taking advantage and laughing all the way to the bank. They must think were idiots, Watters said during a segment dubbing Pelosi The Wolf of Washington.

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With Jesse Watters Primetime, Fox Dips Another Toe in the Populist Culture Wars - Vanity Fair

The good thing about the budget is its conservatism. It expects nominal GDP to increase by a relatively low 11.1 percent in 2022-23, well below the 17 percent plus increase in the current fiscal year. Its also rather low if we consider the real GDP growth of 8-8.5 projected in the Economic Survey. The last time nominal growth was around that level was in 2017-18, when it was 11.03 percent, with real GDP growth being 6.8 percent.

That conservatism is also reflected in its expenditure projections. For all the talk about a huge rise in capital expenditure, the governments total capex in the current fiscal year, including from extra-budgetary sources, according to the revised estimates, will be Rs11.05 lakh crore, much lower than the total budgeted capex of Rs 11.37 lakh crore. Moreover, the fine print says that revised estimates for 2021-22 include capital infusion and loans to Air India for settlement of past liabilities, amounting to Rs 51971 crore. So that number too needs to be excluded. Simply put, while the budgetary resources for capex have been increased, capex by public enterprises is lower.

A similar situation is expected to play out in 2022-23 too. While spending on capex from budgetary resources is expected to go up substantially, total budgetary capex, including from the resources of public enterprises, is Rs 12.20 lakh crore, an increase of just 10.4 percent over the revised estimates. Worse, the increase in the total budgeted capex is a mere 7.3 percent of the total budgeted capex for the current fiscal year.

In short, while much was made in the budget speech about higher public capex, perhaps that needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Even so, the silver lining is that the percentage increase in capital expenditure will be higher than that of revenue spending. The increase in total expenditure envisaged in the budget is just 4.6 percent more than the revised estimates. In fact, revenue expenditure, less interest payments, is budgeted to be lower in 2022-23 than in the current year.

How is this feat proposed to be achieved? Outlays under central sector schemes and projects have been slashed, and finance commission grants to states are budgeted to be lower. Theres also some reduction in establishment expenditure. Its very likely, though, that the expenditure will be higher than budgeted in 2022-23.

What the expenditure numbers tell us is that the government isnt buying the argument that consumption needs to be supported further. Subsidies on food and fertiliser have been substantially reduced. The outlay on MGNREGS is the same as in the last budget and substantially lower than in the revised estimates. Perhaps the hope is that as the economy re-opens, growth will provide jobs, which in turn will support consumption.

On the revenue side, gross tax receipts are budgeted at 10.7 percent of GDP, lower by a bit than the current years 10.8 percent.

The problem lies in excise duties, which have been budgeted much lower, because of the cuts in duties on fuel. Leaving out excise duties, the gross tax revenues budgeted for 2022-23 are 9.4 percent of GDP against 9.1 percent this year. Thats not too much of an increase, but then it needs to be seen in the context of the nominal GDP increasing by over 17 percent in the current fiscal against the budgeted rise of only 11.1 percent for 2022-23.

Despite the fiscal deficit for 2022-23 being lower, as a percentage of GDP, at 6.4 percent, compared to the revised estimate of 6.9 percent for the current fiscal year, the budget will still provide an increased stimulus, albeit a small one. Thats because the fiscal deficit in absolute terms is higher by Rs 70,107crore.

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Conservative budget that needs to be commended for resisting populism before elections - Moneycontrol

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Researchers say the pandemic has given conspiracy theorists an opportunity to "make alliances in order to advance their political agendas.

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Some of Quebecs most popular conspiracy theorists have preyed on peoples fears and frustrations during the COVID-19 pandemic to drive their own political agendas, a new study says.

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At the same time, it warns, leaders from different areas where conspiracies are known to take hold including far-right groups, and certain religious and spiritual communities have found common ground during the pandemic and are now more intertwined than before.

Many of these groups are politically on the far right and also influenced by religious beliefs, Martin Geoffroy, the director of the program behind the study, said on Monday.

Whats changed is that, before the pandemic, most of them were in their own little spheres. But the pandemic has offered them an opportunity to make alliances in order to advance their political agendas.

The study was published Monday by the Centre for Expertise and Training on Religious Fundamentalism and Radicalization (CEFIR), which operates out of CEGEP douard-Montpetit in Longueuil. Researchers examined nearly 500 videos published online by some of Quebecs most popular so-called complotistes between November 2020 and January 2021.

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Overall, the study suggests those pushing conspiracy theories and misinformation in the province can be divided into two ideological matrices: the far-right and religious or spiritual movements.

Those that fall under the far-right category, it says, include people belonging to nationalist and identitarian groups, as well as the sovereign citizens and survivalism movements. On the religious and spiritual side, the study also identified three main components: the New Age movement, Catholic integralism, and Protestant fundamentalism.

Many of the influencers mentioned in the study were already spreading conspiracy theories and anti-government sentiment before the pandemic. But with people spending more time online and frustrations growing, theyve seen their popularity and influence increase over the last two years.

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For Geoffroy, this was to be expected.

All groups that draw on populism on the far right capitalize on fear, and the pandemic has been a great opportunity structure to create fear, he said.

Times are tough, many people have lost their jobs, then they come with the magical solution to all your problems. Theyll say, The pandemic isnt over? Well end it by overthrowing the government, he added. It wont happen, but they draw on that to further push their agenda.

Geoffroy pointed to this weekends convoy protest in Ottawa as an example.

Though the convoy was promoted as a protest against vaccine mandates for truckers, it has since morphed into a call for all public health measures to be lifted. People with far-right connections and links to white supremacist groups, including several the study focused on, have also participated. Over the weekend, at least one truck flew a Confederate flag and Nazi symbols and slogans were seen in the crowd.

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It was very hard this weekend to know who was representing this movement, Geoffroy said. But basically all of these types of groups were there.

Among the people whose online activity researchers studied was Mario Roy , a former member of right-wing groups Storm Alliance and La Meute whos called on members of the National Assembly to be arrested for high treason over pandemic measures. As well as Franois Amalega Bitondo , an anti-mask protester whos under court order to stay away from Premier Franois Legault.

Also mentioned in the study is Alexis Cossette-Trudel , another key conspiracy theorist in Quebec. Cossette-Trudel, who has a significant online following, has argued the pandemic is a part of a plot by the deep state to undermine former United States president Donald Trump a plan he believes Legault is part of.

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As for the religious side, the study details how a Montreal pastor, who has openly defied health measures, began collaborating with a well-known far-right activist during the pandemic. The report says the pastor has frequently equated health measures with Satanism promoted by atheistic communists seeking to take control of the planet.

The study also looked into the influence of certain Quebecers who identify with the New Age movement, a network of people who generally subscribe to a variety of beliefs about spirituality and natural health. During the pandemic, however, the report says their discourse has become more conspiratorial, often blaming modern medicine for COVID-19 and spreading debunked theories about the dangers of the vaccine.

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The illustrate the point, the study quotes one influencer with thousands of followers across her different online platforms.

You have to look at it as a gift when you have an illness. Even if you have a little acute illness like a cold, or like COVID right, the imaginary COVID, she said in November 2020. Its a cleansing illness. An acute illness with what I call cleansing symptoms.

Geoffroy said it can be hard to tell, sometimes, which of these people actually believe what theyre saying and which ones are only doing it for their personal gain. And, he added, he understands how some would like to label conspiracy theorists as unhinged people who are simply spreading nonsense.

But thats exactly what the study warns against doing, he said.

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Some of them might be, but most of them are only using conspiracy theories to advance their political agenda, which is a far-right agenda, he said. And people dont always realize that.

jfeith@postmedia.com

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Quebec conspiracy theorists prey on fears and frustrations: study - Montreal Gazette