Daily Archives: January 27, 2022

Friday, 28 January 2022, 6:07 amPress Release: UTM Music Group

This Quiet Room is the first new album in 37 yearsfrom New Zealand post-punk / new wave / indie veterans Vietnam,and the bands final, definitive statement.Officially released today (Friday, 28January, NZ Time) on Vinyl, CD, and digital formats, ThisQuiet Room can be ordered online from Vietnamnz.com,Bandcamp,FlyingOut, Marbecks,and JBHiFi, with more to follow.

Initially active from1981-85, and reforming in 2017 to celebrate the reissue oftheir self-titled 1985 debut, Vietnam went on to record thebrand-new album This Quiet Room between 2019 and2020. Now based between Sydney, Australia, and Wellington,New Zealand, the bands new album remains true to theirroots in the moody post-punk and quintessentially NewZealand indie jangle of the early eighties, but is matureand confident enough to make forays into new territory, withmoments of dark, brooding jazz cabaret, and even disarminglygentle ballads.

This Quiet Room from Vietnamcomes in a limited edition of 300 individually numbered LPs,pressed on 180-gram Clear Vinyl, and is also available in CDand digital formats. Covid-restrictions permitting, the bandhope to play one final New Zealand tour later in2022.

Meanwhile, the new video for the albumspoignant second single, Where is My Happiness?, wasreleased earlier this week, premiering on Stereo EmbersMagazine (US) witha beautiful write-up from Dave Cantrell, followed by afeature on Undertheradar.co.nz.

PREVIEW

Privatepromo stream of the album via Soundcloud: here

NEWZEALAND RETAIL DISTRIBUTION: UPDATED

ThisQuiet Room by Vietnam is distributed in New Zealand byRhythmethod,and is available now from Flying Out (Auckland), Marbecks(Auckland), Real Groovy (Auckland), Spellbound Wax(Gisborne), Vinyl Countdown (New Plymouth), Slow Boat(Wellington), Rough Peel (Wellington), Pennylane(Christchurch), Relics (Dunedin), and all JB HiFi outletsnationwide.

Follow Vietnam: Bandcamp| Facebook| Instagram| YouTube

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This Quiet Room: The Long Awaited Album From New Zealand Post-punk / Indie Veterans Vietnam, Released Today - Scoop

Asia Martusia King/Supplied

Kiwi animal species having fun as students in Dunedin forms the basis of a new dating game.

Asia Martusia King had never designed a game before, but she has gone all out building a dating game involving New Zealand species.

The University of Otago student has created and submitted the game as part of her master of science communication degree.

King wanted to combine learning with something fun, and ended up with The Ugly Club essentially a dating simulator, based on the annual Bird of the Year competition.'

SUPPLIED

Asia Martusia King worked on the game as part of her masters degree at the University of Otago.

Science games do exist but, to be frank, a lot of them are really boring and lack story, so my primary aim is to communicate these concepts in a way which is fun and silly and integral to a plot, King said.

READ MORE:* Exporters of services fighting more barriers post-Covid: OECD* South Otago student wins Prime Minister's scholarship to Asia* Week in Review: Confetti and the heartbreakers

The game has a plot line which will take some beating, and involves some uncharismatic New Zealand fauna an Archeys frog, a wtpunga and a short-tailed bat aka the ugly club, who a player ends up flatting with at the University of Otago.

When a player receives an invitation to the Bird of the Year annual ball, they go on dates with their flatmates to decide who they want to bring.

Asia Martusia King/Supplied

The game, named The Ugly Club, features famous New Zealand fauna.

King said those dates range from partying on Dunedin's infamous Castle St, or playing the popular student drinking game possum in the botanic gardens.

Dating simulators are essentially visual novels, so as long as I did the art and the writing I figured I could teach myself how to put it all together, and it would be way less difficult that teaching myself how to code, King said.

I had heaps of fun with it. I dont think anyone outside of New Zealand would appreciate the game at all ... but I dont care.

The beauty of the game was that people would learn about the species they go on dates with without even realising it.

But it wasnt without its twists, King said, including some of New Zealands most famous native species trying to woo players away from their dates.

King said her game included prominent judges John Campbell, the Gore trout and a tern named Jacinda Artern.

Asia Martusia King/Supplied

Judges in the game include, from left, Suzy Cato, the Gore trout, and John Campbell

She hopes to create another game for the official New Zealand Bird of the Year competition, which is run by Forest and Bird, with the current title holder belonging to the long-tailed bat.

King is yet to receive her marks for the game, which is now available to be downloaded for Windows users.

Continue reading here:

Dating game for New Zealand species - welcome to The Ugly Club - Stuff.co.nz

Chair of Transparency International New Zealand Anne Tolley said international recognition of low levels of corruption is vital for New Zealand's trade-dependent economy.

"Solid credit ratings and lower costs of contracting and compliance allow us to remain competitive internationally. Maintaining active vigilance against corruption has significant financial value to the country."

The organization said the Government's decision to move New Zealand to red in the COVID Protection Framework was not evidence of corruption.

"We expect complaints from people who believe that curtailing our rights under red light restrictions are evidence of corruption," Haggie said.

"We don't agree with that - the restrictions are necessary to protect public health. New Zealanders are more likely to accept restrictions if they know that they are timebound, rolled back as soon as possible, and if there is transparency around the decision-making processes."

This 2021 index showed that corruption levels remain at a standstill worldwide, with 86 percent of countries making little to no progress in the last 10 years. South Sudan finished last with a score of 11.

Read the original here:

New Zealand named world's least corrupt country for third year straight - Newshub

The median weekly rent is $700 a week and rentals are hot property. Photo / 123RF

Porirua has been named the most expensive rental market in the country - with a median weekly rent of $700 a week. Rentals are hot property in the city.

Housing Action Porirua's Jasmine Taankink told Morning Report the prices were the result of negligence from successive governments.

"Initially, eastern Porirua, like Waitangirua and Cannons Creek, were mainly state-housing areas and were also an affordable place for people to buy their first home," Taankink said.

"Over the years, a lot of that state housing stock has been sold off, the majority of which now sits in the hands of the investors so they now have the monopoly of the rental housing."

Since 2018, the state housing waiting list since 2018 had fluctuated between 200 and 300, and emergency housing was often full and hard to get into, she said.

"It's absolutely really difficult."

Even when private rentals were available they were about $650 or $700, she said.

"For a minimum-wage worker, that's their whole pay or more."

As a result, some families were moving to places like Levin or further afield.

"This means that it is more difficult for them to get jobs or higher education and all that's going to do is drive the prices up there."

One person in the community has had to move twice since 2018, resulting in them having to pay $15,600 more in rent each a year, Taankink said.

"That person is only entitled to an extra $12 a week with the accommodation supplement.

"It's meaning communities part, it means that people have to leave the places they've grown up in.

"Families are definitely going without things. If one whole wage is going towards rent and the accommodation supplement isn't keeping up with the increases in rent, this means people are having to make choices about what to go without."

There was no quick solution to the problem but it required a change in political will, Taankink said.

"It's quite clear - over the last few years there's always been around 20,000 people on the state housing waiting list around Aotearoa and 2[00] to 300 of those in Porirua - that we need a significant commitment to increasing the state housing stock."

View post:

Porirua named most expensive rental market in NZ - New Zealand Herald

Police have described it as a "disorder incident" in the Clendon Park shopping area. They confirmed in a statement officers responded to several reports of disorder at around 9.30pm local time. On arrival, police "located a number of victims with varying injuries" who were taken to hospital. It is understood one male suffered minor injuries.

A statement said: "Police remain at the scene and continue to investigate the circumstances of the incidents."

Police are now speaking to people in the area and those at a petrol station close to the incident, which was full of cars and people.

Nearby residents described the scene when hearing emergency services rushing to the scene.

A witness at the Warehouse car park in Clendon Park said more than a dozen police officers were present.

The man said he had seen lots of broken glass, shoes, clothing and car parts scattered across the ground, according to the New Zealand Herald newspaper.

One resident described what sounded like the sound of gunshots at the Clendon Shopping Centre car park.

The woman said she was parking her car at around 9.15pm when she heard a "loud bang" - followed by another.

She had initially thought it was fireworks being set off until she saw panicked and terrified people running.

READ MORE:Turkey forced to CUT power and be plunged into darkness

The resident told the New Zealand Herald: "I quickly jumped in my car and another a few shots happened again."

The terrified woman said she then just hid in her car.

She added: "I just heard people screaming and cars zooming off."

Clendon Park is a suburb of Auckland in northern New Zealand.

It is located to the west of Manurewa and north of Weymouth.

See the rest here:

New Zealand shopping centre shooting: 'Loud bangs and shots' - many injured - Daily Express

Roger Smith/Supplied

A black tern, never before recorded in New Zealand, has been spotted at Waikanae Estuary, drawing crowds and flummoxing experts.

People living alongside Waikanae Estuary might be wondering what theyre missing, as a steady stream of people make their way across the sand spit, armed with large cameras and a palpable sense of determination.

The focus of their attention is easy to miss. The black tern, a small bird of mottled white, grey and black, sits nestled among a group of native white-fronted terns. You wouldnt know to look at it how far it has travelled.

This unassuming visitor is the first of its kind to be seen in New Zealand, with the species originally hailing from Europe, Western Asia and North America.

Resident Roger Smith is one of many people lucky enough to capture it on camera and is as flummoxed as the rest of the birding community about how the bird came to be on a beach north of Wellington.

READ MORE:* It's dive bombing season for magpies as one Wairarapa rider finds out * Plans to stop 'rat bags' selling stolen moa bones online* Bird-crazy Kiwis in lockdown send native bird website traffic soaring

Roger Smith/Supplied

It is not known how the black tern ended up on a beach north of Wellington, but one expert there is a certain element of getting lost involved.

The bird was first spotted by eagle-eyed birding enthusiast Elizabeth Taylor on January 14, and positively identified by various birding experts and the community of online twitchers (birdwatchers who collect sightings of rare birds).

People have travelled from all over the country for a glimpse, Smith said, from places like Auckland, Tauranga, and Golden Bay.

Te Papa bird expert Colin Miskelly, who saw the bird on Monday morning, said he thought our nearest neighbour Australia had recorded only three sightings. Those individuals, like this one, were thought to have originated from North America.

The only twitch that would be bigger would be Happy Feet the emperor penguin.

So how did it end up on our shores? Theres probably an element of getting lost, Miskelly said. This type of bird was migratory and could travel great distances.

This is a classic case of, Yay, its here, but there has been no suggestion of catching it and sending it home, he said. Yet if a rare penguin turned up, wed be wanting to make sure it got home.

Roger Smith/Supplied

Its possibly the biggest twitch since Happy Feet, drawing bird enthusiasts and photographers from around the country.

Miskelly is the convenor of Ornithological Society of New Zealands Records Appraisal Committee, meaning he is one of five people who identify rare birds, and log their presence in New Zealand. This black tern had been a relatively straightforward identification job, thanks to the good quality photos supplied by twitchers.

It had potentially thrown two other historical bird sightings into question this sighting might not hold the title of first in New Zealand for long. Because of poor photos, two previous sightings of black terns had not been verified at the time, but Miskelly said the committee would be taking another look.

Good quality photos or video footage were paramount, he said. One person had submitted a sighting of the rare South Island kkako, but a quick look at the video showed it was, in fact, a common quail.

In the case of black terns, we suspect some other records had been overlooked, Miskelly said.

Smith had not seen the bird for a couple of days, and suspected it had since departed with its new friends.

The official record would be finalised in May, Miskelly said, and whether the other sightings turned out to be mistaken or not, for now, this mottled visitor remains the first of its kind.

See the article here:

First ever sighting of black tern in New Zealand has twitchers in a flap - Stuff.co.nz

Andrew Redington/Getty Images

Ryan Fox is back on the DP World Tour but is eyeing another return to New Zealand.

Ryan Fox admits life and sport during the Covid-19 pandemic have been brutal.

But the leading New Zealand mens golfer acknowledged others have had it far worse as he plays a string of tournaments in the Middle East on the DP World Tour before another scheduled stint in MIQ back home.

Fox finished 61st in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship on Sunday and told The Guardian during the event that he and his family wife Anneke and 13-month-old daughter Isabel have struggled with New Zealands MIQ system.

DP WORLD TOUR/TWITTER

Spain's Santiago Tarrio produced a spectacular escape from a tricky bunker lie.

Im in a good place, I know Ive got a job, Fox said.

READ MORE:* Kiwi golfer Lydia Ko opens 2022 LPGA season with top-10- finish in Orlando* Steven Alker loses out to Miguel Angel Jimnez in playoff in PGA Tour Champions* Watch: Golfer's spectacular overhead escape at Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

There are some Kiwis overseas that are not as well-placed as me, that dont have a job. It was frustrating enough at the start and its probably got worse. Our system has got harder and harder. We finally, just before Christmas, had some help. I think we get 22 spots a month as individual athletes trying to get into the country.

The 205th-ranked mens golfer in world standings said he had to miss a couple of tournaments in Europe late last year to ensure he could get back to New Zealand.

I spent the whole back end of last year, me and my wife, trying to get in this lottery system to get a space to go home for Christmas. I missed a couple of events at the end of the year because that was the only time we could get home. Hopefully, when we go back this will be the last time that I do it. Its been an incredibly frustrating 18 months. I find it really, really hard in quarantine by myself.

Fox has a flat in London, but said the family was desperate to get home at the end of 2021.

Andrew Redington/Getty Images

Ryan Fox says travelling back to New Zealand has been frustrating.

It was really tough on my wife last year having four months, where she was with a baby 24 hours a day. I was out playing golf. She travelled to some events but just not being able to have any support was pretty tough, he told The Guardian.

The 35-year-old said people had understood his predicament, despite concerns from New Zealanders about keeping borders open.

Back home a lot of people think they should just shut the borders.

Ive personally not caught flak for travelling but theres an undercurrent of: Why are people travelling in the middle of the pandemic? Well, its very results driven. If I dont play or I dont play well, I dont have a job and I cant support my family. I feel like I dont have a choice.

Fox, who will next tee it up in the Dubai Desert Classic later this week, said people missing dying relatives and funerals deserved far greater sympathy than him.

Theres a lot of people who have a lot tougher stories than what I have.

See the original post here:

Ryan Fox frustrated by New Zealand's MIQ system as he eyes another return home - Stuff.co.nz

Supplied

Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Treaty of Waitangi) will be part of the Aotearoa history curriculum, which now won't be taught to year 1 to 10 students until 2023.

Schools will not be required to teach Aotearoas history until 2023 to give them longer to implement the new curriculum while navigating disruptions caused by Covid-19.

In response to growing demand from Kiwis, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced in September 2019 that all schools and kura would be expected to start teaching the country's history to year 0 to 10 students by 2022.

But a year-long delay has been confirmed after public reservations about the finer details of the draft that drew in more than 4000 submissions. It is now due to be finalised early this year.

Ngi Tahu kaumtua T Tipene ORegan, who sat on the advisory panel to the ministry creating the curriculum, said the fact that its being debated is wonderful, but I'm anxious about how it will emerge.

ALDEN WILLIAMS/Stuff

T Tipene ORegan says Aotearoas history and the relationship between Mori and Pkeh is more nuanced than a goodie and baddie narrative.

READ MORE:* Teachers will get support they need to teach new history curriculum, PM says* History on repeat - how compulsory teaching in NZ might work* New Zealand history to be taught in schools by 2022, says PM Jacinda Ardern* Teaching New Zealand history 'common sense': Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

He was initially concerned that the curriculum change would replace one unsatisfactory narrative with another about goodies and baddies and Mori victim, Pkeh oppressor.

The interrelationship of Mori and Pkeh is much more nuanced than this standard division that we have ... [it] is conventional to talk and blame everything on colonialism.

He believed a certain amount of dissatisfaction had stalled the roll-out, and the final curriculum could take years to have any effect on society.

The iwi would be quite heavily involved in what it would look like in Te Waipounamu (the South Island), he said.

JO MOIR/STUFF

NZ History Teachers Association chair Graeme Ball talks to the Maori Affairs select committee about the need for teaching the countrys colonial history in schools. (First published June 20, 2018).

New Zealand History Teachers Association chairman Graeme Ball has been pushing for the nation's history to be taught in schools for years, but agreed with delaying the launch because there was already too much pressure on schools during the pandemic.

A lot of hap and iwi might not be ready for it either, he said.

Also involved in the curriculum design, Ball said the latest version allowed schools to adapt the curriculum to key events in their regions.

Creating a curriculum was a long process, he said, and this was the first time it set expectations for primary and intermediate teachers to teach the nations history.

Supplied

Ministry of Education deputy secretary early learning and student achievement Ellen MacGregor-Reid.

He hoped the anxiety many teachers might feel that I dont know this stuff so how can I teach it would be alleviated with professional development.

The country is ready for it.

Ministry of Education Te Pouth (Curriculum) haut (leader) Ellen MacGregor-Reid said the release of the final curriculum content was delayed to early 2022 due to Covid-19 disruptions over the past two years, and schools and kura would not be required to teach it until a year later.

The draft content was developed by an expert panel before being tested with a wider reference group, Ohu Matua. This group was made up of history experts, Mori, Pkeha, Pacific, migrant communities, disabled peoples, teachers and curriculum leaders.

It was tested in 2021 in staffrooms and classrooms, and underwent public consultation between February and May 2021.

Schools and kura would be supported during 2022 to access the resources they needed, and would have funding to involve iwi and hap in developing region specific information. The new content would start being taught from 2023.

In 2015, torohanga College students petitioned for more education in schools about the Land Wars, one of the bloodiest of which the 1863-64 Waikato War happened just 20 minutes drive from their King Country school.

Hundreds gathered at Parliament's forecourt to present the 13,000-signature petition, but the ministry refused to accept it because requiring schools to teach a specific subject would be contrary to the spirit and underlying principles of the curriculum.

That stance was flipped in 2019 following another petition from history teachers, and a campaign run by Stuff in 2018.

Read the rest here:

Teaching of New Zealand history in schools delayed by a year - Stuff.co.nz

January 23 2022PM Jacinda Ardern has confirmed New Zealand will move to the red traffic light setting at midnight tonight.

Following the Government's announcement that the country will move to the red traffic light at midnight tonight, Air New Zealand say they will continue to operate domestic services and have stood down 15 aircrew members as close contacts of a positive case.

CEO Greg Foran says like all businesses, the airline is preparing for the impact Omicron will have on its customers and employees.

"Our priority has always been and continues to be, keeping our employees, customers and New Zealand safe. The great news is, you can continue to fly during the red setting and there are no regional borders in place. However, we do expect to see some impact to our operation."

"As a result of one of our employees testing positive for Omicron, subsequently, around 15 aircrew have been stood down as close contacts. They are well and are testing and isolating in accordance with Ministry of Health guidelines."

"What this does mean is that while we will continue to do all we can to keep Aotearoa connected, we expect to see some schedule changes and cancellations over the coming weeks due to Covid".

In a statement, Air New Zealand said it has significant precautions in place for crew set out by the Ministry of Health and the airline's medical team, including wearing PPE and regular surveillance testing.

Air New Zealand operating aircrew and customer-facing employees are fully vaccinated and customers over the age of 12 travelling with Air New Zealand domestically need to show either proof of vaccination or proof of a recent negative test result and vaccination requirement for all international passengers comes into effect from February 1.

The airline paused in-flight food and beverage service from January 1, 2022, to enable customers to keep their masks on for the duration of domestic flights.

Air New Zealand lounges will be open as usual and customers are advised to upload their vaccine pass to their Airpoints profile when booking in online.

23 Jan, 2022 01:30 AMQuick Read

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Air New Zealand stands down 15 aircrew identified as close contacts of Omicron-positive case - New Zealand Herald

When Covid landed in 2020, it came, it saw, but it did not conquer our economy; the new threat is inflation enhanced by the battle against the pandemic, experts say.

Propped up by the Government, the New Zealand economy proved more resilient amid coronavirus than economists expected. There were no unemployment queues, no housing market slump, and while specific areas suffered, the overall picture was not one of gloom.

But throwing taxpayer money at the problem is unsustainable and will not make it go away, it will simply create a new problem, the economic warnings run.

We have run out of ammunition fighting off successfully the first mass attack of the enemy, former Trade Minister Tim Groser says.

Mark Taylor/Waikato Times

We are out of ammo, former Trade Minister Tim Groser says.

READ MORE:* Buckle up for the interesting economic times ahead* IMF sounds alarm over inflation as ANZ tips 4.5% may not be a peak in NZ* There is still plenty of Covid pain to come

Even then, New Zealand was insulated better than some countries, thanks to the strength of its primary producers, he argues.

As such, the economic spine proved strong and flexible, as industries here and overseas ached and sneezed through the worst global pandemic since the Spanish flu a century ago.

In the last two years, it is far better to have been a large food exporter like New Zealand than a motor vehicle exporter, Groser says.

In those two years global food prices (on the IMF commodity index) increased 40 per cent in nominal terms, to New Zealands great advantage.

In Europe, their automotive industry has just endured six months of declining new car registrations because of the impact of the pandemic on global auto supply chains.

But at the highest level of generality, the global economy has got through this health crisis relatively unscathed, and we should all be thankful for that.

Supplied

Economist Cameron Bagrie: Covid is a supply shock that makes us poorer not richer.

The main risk economically is not likely to arise from the biological dynamics of the mutating virus, but the risk of a premature and excessively rapid withdrawal of that fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Continuing to stimulate the economy will come at a cost, Groser says.

We and other advanced economies will pay that price over many years either through a secular shift upwards in the long-term inflation rate (the worst of the two options) or the implications of a long and difficult period of fiscal consolidation that must now take place precisely to avoid setting long term expectations of a higher inflation rate.

Economist Cameron Bagrie too, warns the free lunch of Government employment and other subsidies, will come at a cost.

New Zealand will need to learn to live with Covid and that will involve tough trade-offs between health, the economy and mobility, he says.

Covid is a supply shock that makes us poorer, not richer, he says.

Sugar candy economics via heaps of government spending and aggressive central bank just provided a temporary reprieve with both positive and negative consequences.

Inflation is the reality check and pop variable that will be a big focal point over the coming years. Inflation is a thief that steals savings and reduces spending power. Getting inflation back into check is not going to be asset price or growth friendly.

Growth in the global and New Zealand economies will be slower than we have been used to, with labour supply and productivity curtailed, Bagrie says.

Government policy will need to pivot from spending and using fiscal policy, to a stronger emphasis on microeconomic policy, he says.

These are the little levers you can pull to improve the anaerobic capacity of the economy to grow year after year.

Why do we have 40,000 more people on a benefit now than pre-Covid but an unemployment rate of 3.4 per cent?

Covid, and the policy response to it, has magnified pre-Covid themes such as wealth inequality, housing affordability, globalisation, health system readiness and the under-appreciated value of some people such as nurses.

Supplied/Supplied

There's a lot of risks out there, but we are in a really strong starting position, says Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

While food parcel deliveries are high, and restaurants battling to find staff, 90 per cent of the economy is still firing, says Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

Tourism, hospitality and international education are battling, yet overall the past two years have not been as torrid for the overall economy as most expected, Kerr says.

At the start of the pandemic we were worried about queues of unemployed and we were going to get a housing market correction, and a whole lot of nasty stuff was about to happen, he says.

That it didnt and you can pop that down to the government's policy, the wage subsidies and the other measures that the government did.

Kiwi businesses are much more resilient and adaptable than we gave them credit for. We always underestimate the adaptability of Kiwi businesses and once again, we found ourselves and our economy far more resilient than any of us had anticipated.

STUFF

Stuff Business Editor Susan Edmunds is joined by Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan and principal economist Brad Olsen to talk about whats really happening in the economy.

We got through various lockdowns well. With each lockdown the severity of the impact is lessening. The first lockdown was bad, the second lockdown was not quite as bad.

Our terms of trade are at historic highs in terms of what we are receiving compared to what we are paying, our purchasing power has never been better.

But now the big question mark for Kerr is how we move from a pandemic to an endemic - how do we live with Covid, as soon as Omicron makes it into the wider community. How and when does New Zealand open up to the rest of the world?

Cracks are showing. Inflation is coming, Kerr says.

There are still a lot of negatives out there, so cautiously optimistic but certainly not going to be surprised if the New Zealand economy does as well, its a well oiled machine - adaptable.

There's a lot of risks out there but we are in a really strong starting position, we've got record low unemployment, government finances are in great shape. They are making more revenue via tax than they thought, they're spending less than they can, so a good situation there.

LAWRENCE SMITH/Stuff

Its all about inflation now; Sharon Zollner, chief economist for ANZ.

Over at the ANZ, chief economist Sharon Zollner was even more wary, to the point of gloomy, in a change of heart this week forecasting lifts in the Official Cash Rate over the next 15 months.

While inflationary global supply-side disruptions remain its domestic inflation pressures, and in particular the ongoing tightness in labour supply, that explain most of our change in view, Zollner says.

She expected upward surprises for the Reserve Bank in both the labour market and the consumers price index (CPI), the measure of inflation for households.

Our updated view is not based on a belief that growth will be going gangbusters, she says.

The housing market appears to be coming to a very sudden stop; households are facing significant cost-of-living stresses and have subdued confidence; a shortage of workers and materials is hampering production; and Omicron is knocking on our door.

123rf.com/Stuff

Primary producers have insulated the economy.

But the reality of a prolonged negative supply side shock is that even modest growth can stretch resources and cause inflation. The trade-offs are unpleasant and theres no way around that.

For the past 20 years, investors and other risk-takers have got used to thinking of central banks as their friends who have their back; that weak growth or wobbly markets mean lower interest rates. This time, its highly conditional love.

Its all about inflation now.

Groser, New Zealands chief trade negotiator over many years, looks overseas for the factors that will have the biggest impact on Kiwis, and their economic well-being.

Its all about pandemic science, not economic analysis, he says.

The orthodox view that the mutations are now on a highly contagious but clearly less dangerous path, may prove wrong, he says.

If that orthodox view is wrong the economic impact could be far more severe than the first wave of the pandemic, precisely because the fiscal and monetary armoury of the major economies is all but exhausted from the first wave of the pandemic.

Our economic fate is therefore largely in the hands of the worlds major public health institutions, the public and private science research establishments and the great and innovative pharmaceutical companies.

Read more:

New Zealand economy winning Covid battle, only for a new threat to emerge - Stuff.co.nz