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Daily Archives: January 17, 2022
Bitcoin Is A Better Store Of Value Than Real Estate – Bitcoin Magazine
Posted: January 17, 2022 at 8:57 am
This is not an introductory article explaining what bitcoin is and why other so-called cryptocurrencies cannot compete with its properties and network effects. There has been enough written about this already and bitcoin is the victor. What I will contend is that bitcoin can be considered the worlds best store of value by having superior characteristics to real estate the largest store of value presently. I will look at this briefly through each important characteristic that contributes to an asset retaining its value over time.
I think the epiphany comes when you realize that bitcoin is the dominant digital property network, and digital property is better than physical property in every way conceivable. If I theoretically designed digital property to store a billion dollars, I would want to hold it in the palm of my hand, move it at the speed of light, vibrate it one thousand times per second. I want it to last forever. I want immortal, indestructible, infinite, all powerful, programmable energy. Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of MicroStrategy
Scarcity is almost certainly the most important feature of a good store of value. Some real estate is scarce, a Sydney Harbour, waterfront mansion for example. But most real estate is not. Cities can expand upward through increased density or outward by extending their boundaries. Vacant or underutilized land can be rezoned or redeveloped. Land can be reclaimed from the ocean. Much of the scarcity associated with real estate is driven by government policy rather than true scarcity. Bitcoin is the scarcest asset ever known, because by design, there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin.
Even assuming there is no lost bitcoin (where people have lost or died with their private keys), which we know is not the case, a maximum of 0.26% of the worlds 8 billion people will be able to own a whole bitcoin. For context, there are over 56 million U.S. dollar millionaires globally; the majority of them will never be able to own a whole bitcoin despite most owning substantial amounts of real estate. Finally, bitcoins future supply schedule is perfectly known. Just over 90% of all bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined (created) and 99% will be mined by 2035. An asset with a perfectly scarce supply schedule has never existed before.
Ideally, a store of value should be easy to divide into smaller parts to maximize its transactional potential. Physical real estate has obvious divisibility constraints. This has improved over time with the advent of real estate investment trusts (REITs), funds and other fractional ownership models. These allow you to own a security, which gives you a share of the property with certain legal rights attached but rarely any control. It often comes with significant compromises such as constraints on liquidity or fees that drag on returns. With bitcoin, you almost always buy the actual asset itself (unless buying a futures contract, or leaving coins on an exchange the equivalent of an IOU for bitcoin approaches I would not recommend). A bitcoin can be divided into 100,000,000 units called satoshis. Today, a single satoshi costs approximately $0.0005. In other words, $1 buys approximately 2,000 satoshis. Even setting aside the inferior legal structure of real estates divisibility, it is still impossible to buy $0.0005 worth of real estate.
To be a good store of value, it must be simple to verify authenticity, providing confidence to all parties in a transaction. Physical real estate generally performs very well on this measure you can see, touch and feel it. However, verifying ownership is less perfect, varies substantially globally and is not always possible without a professional experts assistance. Generally, centralized registers or title systems record ownership, but these can still be subject to rare cases of fraud or human error. Bitcoins public blockchain is able to be verified by anybody, anywhere, instantly, with no reliance on third parties and with mathematical certainty.
When two or more things are interchangeable and can be substituted for one another, they can be described as fungible. Fungibility solves the problems that arise in a bartering economy where people trade without a monetary medium. Real estate is not fungible: An acre of beachfront land in the Hamptons cannot be substituted for an acre of frozen land in Siberia. Bitcoins fungibility is superior. Every bitcoin or satoshi can be treated the same. Its fungibility is not perfect though, as the blockchain is public and traceable, so particular satoshis could be marked by regulators as being contaminated or unacceptable, in the very rare event they were used for illegal activities for example. Network development continues to improve the privacy of users and reduce this problem over time, but more work needs to be done. Nevertheless, bitcoin still triumphs over real estate on this measure.
The ability to be transported and stored easily facilitates global trade and protects against theft or loss. Real estate fails miserably on this measure: Clearly an office building in Manhattan cannot be transported to central Tokyo. Bitcoin is the obvious winner here, being the most portable store of value humans have discovered. It can literally be stored in your head by memorizing a 12- or 24-word private key (or password, which can also be kept safe on the equivalent of a small flash drive and transported in your pocket). A bitcoin transaction enables billions of dollars of value to be sent globally, instantly and at an extremely low cost.
To be a good store of value, an asset must not degrade or be easily destroyed. Vacant land can meet this criteria, however, developed property falls short as its materials cannot last forever and in rare circumstances can be destroyed substantially or entirely by natural disasters or war. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital record with no issuing authority or controlling individual. Ultimately, it may be considered durable provided the network that secures it survives. It is still early, however, the signs of bitcoins durability grow consistently whether it be attacks by hackers in its infancy that are now a thing of the past or countries unsuccessfully attempting to regulate or ban it. However, neither real estate or bitcoin can conclusively claim victory on this measure, yet.
The ability of a good to withstand a government or corporations control, confiscation or censorship is an increasingly important factor in qualifying as a reliable store of value. Real estate is not immune from confiscation, whether that be through compulsory acquisition or eminent domain laws or communist regimes seizing private property. It is also controlled through planning and zoning regulations and can be impaired by political decisions such as the moratoriums on rental evictions that happened in many countries globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, not all real estate tenure is created equal; freehold is the most desirable but still subject to the aforementioned risks. Also, in many jurisdictions, you cannot actually own real estate in perpetuity. Rather, you acquire a long-term leasehold or in some cases, such as in China, land use rights. Bitcoin excels in its censorship resistance. It is permission-less in that no external intervention can prevent a transaction being allowed by the distributed peer-to-peer network. Confiscating a 12- or 24-word private key which could be kept in somebodys head is also very difficult and inefficient at scale.
An ideal store of value should not need to be professionally managed by expert individuals or corporations and be accessible to everybody. Whether it be a single family home or a 1 million square foot office building, almost all forms of real estate require ongoing intervention to ensure operations are maximized and value preserved. Bitcoin does not demand this from its users. Once acquired and properly secured, the owner has absolutely nothing to do until they spend, sell or pass it to their descendants. Bitcoin isnt burdened by recalcitrant tenants or blocked toilets. It is not management intensive and is an open monetary network that anybody with an internet connection or phone can access. Its U.S. dollar price currently means the barrier to entry is extremely low, with $1 buying approximately 2,000 satoshis (there are 100,000,000 satoshis in a single bitcoin). In contrast, as the majority of first home buyers around the world will attest, real estate is increasingly inaccessible. The 15 most expensive cities in America have a home price-to-income ratio in the 714 times range and affordability is decreasing over time. Data shows that, while median household income has grown from $63,292 to $67,521 over the past 20 years, median house prices have grown from $227,600 to $403,900.
A good store of value should not be costly to hold. Real estate is burdened by maintenance costs and capital expenditure in order to retain its value. Billions of dollars of bitcoin can be stored virtually for free in a fully self-sovereign manner in perpetuity. Different owners will choose to adopt different security models that may involve trusted third parties; this comes with a slightly higher cost and other trade-offs but still costs less than the fees of third-party real estate funds or property managers.
The ability for an asset to be converted into another quickly, without losing any value, is a key attribute of a good store of value. Real estate is widely acknowledged as an illiquid asset, taking weeks, months or years to transact and being exposed to price fluctuations (for many reasons outside of the owners control) during a typical sale process. The depth of the buyer market is also extremely variable based on its lack of fungibility. REITs and some funds partially solve the liquidity trap, but come with their own compromises. Bitcoin does not suffer from these weaknesses, with approximately half a trillion U.S. dollars of value being transacted on the Bitcoin network each quarter and the ability to liquidate substantial quantities near instantly.
As the worlds largest store of value presently, real estate is famed for its ability to act as collateral and provide owners with the benefits (and risks) of leverage. Arguably global real estate prices have been the biggest beneficiary of a secular, multi-decade downtrend in interest rates, continual expansion of the money supply and more recent unprecedented central bank interventions. Globally, there are various government schemes that provide incentives to borrowers to maximize leverage (such as Australias negative gearing rules), supercharging returns over the long term, even though volatility occasionally liquidates weaker borrowers. Despite recent murmurs of QE tapering and interest rate rises, many argue that such moves would collapse currencies or bankrupt governments, so leveraged real estate is likely to remain an attractive store of value for some time to come.
Bitcoin flips this model. Its characteristics as a store of value are enhanced when held without leverage. Relatedly, the market for fiat currency loans with bitcoin as collateral is extremely immature, with four main risks. The first is the counterparty risk: Most loans are provided by early stage, VC-backed startups with balance sheets of unknown strength (or individuals in peer-to-peer structures). The second is the cost: Interest rates are high. The third is the security model: It is difficult to reliably hold bitcoin in a way that appropriately allocates risk between lender and borrower. The fourth is bitcoins price volatility, causing covenant breaches triggering loss of bitcoin through automatic liquidation (even if it were possible for additional collateral to be posted). For most borrowers, it may be possible to de-risk one or two, but not all four of these areas. Consequently, real estate currently provides superior leverage benefits, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis. This contrast will likely change in line with bitcoins maturation. Some macro investors already argue it is the most pristine form of collateral possible, but the product ecosystem needs to catch up.
A common critique of bitcoin is that it is too volatile. This might not be surprising given its short history. While volatility remains a factor today, it continues to trend down slightly over the long term as the asset matures. The bitcoin market trades 24/7 and never closes, so the ability to smooth out volatility either artificially through arbitrary quarterly or annual valuation cycles and an appraisal process subject to human frailties and manipulation doesnt exist like it does in the real estate market. It is difficult to see this dynamic changing much in the short to medium term, but it is reasonable to expect the trend of gradually lower volatility continues in line with bitcoins maturity. Individual circumstances such as forecast holding periods and portfolio allocations are also considerations when analyzing bitcoins volatility. While 30%-plus drawdowns in short periods of time might never be seen in real estate, bitcoin can also claim that its 200-week moving average price has never fallen a testament to its consistent growth trajectory over 12 years. Nevertheless, at a headline level, real estate appears to be much less volatile than bitcoin. But it is worth noting the impact of high leverage on short to medium time frames when markets turn, which can cause significant volatility, particularly in more liquid real estate assets such as REITs or those regularly marked to market.
Like gold and silver have done for thousands of years in performing the dual role of monetary asset and commodity, real estate provides its owners with value through utility. It can be lived in or used by owner-occupier businesses for production. Clearly this is not a feature bitcoin offers. However, it can be argued that the utility value of real estate is significantly less than its value as a financial asset. The trend of the utility value of real estate in relation to its value as a financial asset can be observed in its rental yield. It doesnt take much research to see how consistently rental yields have trended toward zero over a multi-decade horizon, vastly outstripping the growth in household incomes (e.g., it has become much less affordable to own your home) or growth in the income of businesses that occupy it for productive uses. The financialization of an asset whose number one feature is the ability to be occupied has been driven by the secular, multi-decade downtrend in interest rates and expansion of the money supply. If this driver were to change, the premium could dry up or reverse rapidly.
The longer real estate acts as the worlds largest store of value, the harder it will be for something else to replace it. Bitcoin was only conceived in 2008 but has already withstood substantial challenges to provide confidence that it will not go away. In the last two years, we have seen institutional adoption grow (for example, over $80 billion of bitcoin is known to be held in corporate treasuries), market capitalization exceeds $1 trillion in value, and countries are beginning to adopt bitcoin as legal tender and a reserve asset. Bitcoins trajectory continues unabated despite its critics, and the longer it not only survives but thrives, the greater the worlds confidence that it will continue to exist long into the future. Nevertheless, real estate obviously remains the leader on this measure.
A common critique from mainstream financial circles is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value because it produces no cash flow. In contrast, real estate produces generally reliable and consistent cash flows that can be forecasted and valued. Importantly, technical and financial innovation in bitcoin moves much faster than in the legacy system and its only a matter of time before reliable low-risk yield products hit the market. With investors starved for yield, this could be a further catalyst for rotation from traditional asset classes and real estate into bitcoin. Nevertheless, it has already been contended that bitcoin is more divisible, verifiable, fungible, portable, permissionless, accessible, liquid, has lower ownership costs and, critically, is set to be the scarcest major asset ever to exist in our lifetimes. The users that bitcoin provides value to are not looking for cash flows that can be discounted to a present value, but a better way to preserve their expended energy (savings) in perpetuity, as well as transfer potentially billions of dollars of value instantly across space and time.
The market opportunity for bitcoin is significant. Savills estimated the value of all of the worlds real estate was $327 trillion in 2020, with 79% of this being residential real estate. Real estate stores more value than all global equities and debt securities combined. The value of all gold in the world, which many have already argued will be imminently demonetized by bitcoin, is under $12 trillion. At the time of writing, bitcoins market capitalization is less than 10% of golds. If gold were to hold its U.S. dollar price, simply catching up would value one bitcoin at around $500,000.
Although the market is still developing and bitcoin can never provide physical utility, or for now the long track record of real estate, on every other measure it has the potential to become the worlds most sought-after store of value and in the process extract a significant amount of wealth from the real estate sector.
This is a guest post by James Santi. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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Dont mention K country: Bitcoin Magazine’s YouTube restored after ban – Cointelegraph
Posted: at 8:57 am
Bitcoin Magazines YouTube channel was restored around three hours after being shut down, with the publication attributing the short ban to the YouTube algorithm flagging the word Kazakhstan.
In a Jan. 12 Twitter post, Bitcoin Magazine noted that its YouTube account with 56,600 followers was banned in the middle of a livestream with no prior warning from the platform.
The Livestream was focused on topics relating to Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Bitcoin (BTC) mining and the recent internet blackout in Kazakhstan, whichwas reportedly initiated by the government in response to mass protests over surging fuel prices in the nation.
Bitcoin Magazine stated it wasnt entirely sure what grounds YouTube had used to ban its channel but did confirm that its account had been restored an hour after it had submitted an appeal, suggesting that Youtube had realized its error.
In a live broadcast after the reinstatement, host Alex Mcshane noted that the panel was discussing the internet blackouts effect on the BTC mining hash rate without saying anything controversial, but was using a set of algorithmically and politically charged words, which may have triggered the automated shutdown:
Bitcoin Magazine also shared a post earlier on Wednesday noting the initial response from YouTube regarding the ban, with the Google-owned platform stating that content that encourages illegal activities or incites users to violate YouTubes guidelines is not allowed.
We may allow depictions of such activities if they are educational or documentary in nature and dont help others imitate them, the response added.
Despite its content policy, current searches on YouTube still yield results showing multiple live streams using the identity and video content of popular figures such as MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor to promote dodgy websites and supposed crypto giveaway scams.
Related: Key on-chain metric shows Bitcoin miners in massive BTC accumulation mode
Commenting on the ban in the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit, user u/Setl1less highlighted the hypocrisy, arguing that Youtube has made it a habit of taking down prominent informative accounts while allowing scams to operate freely.
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The Habits Of Highly Effective HODLers – Bitcoin Magazine
Posted: at 8:57 am
As the title suggests, Ill go over what I believe makes a good Bitcoiner with the hope of persuading you that being a HODLer is actually an important job that entails certain responsibilities.
The outline roughly will be:
Lets go.
We have an important role as Bitcoiners to always be orange-pilling, but to do so in a way thats constructive, and that means being sensitive to the reality that not everyone is ready to hear what we have to say.
We recognize that becoming a Bitcoiner often results from a set of philosophical underpinnings or dependencies. Someone lacking in one or more of these prerequisites will likely face obstacles along their journey that make adoption difficult. The fact that not yet everyone is onboard with bitcoin is testament to this difficulty.
There are other impediments to adoption beyond a mere conceptual understanding that can usually be traced to conflicts of interest. We believe in time these too will give way to a more free and open financial system based on voluntary cooperation. Its our job to bring bitcoin to the world with the least number of casualties along the way and to remind people that bitcoin is available to everyone equally.
Studying bitcoin, I asked myself why some people arent profoundly astounded by it, or worse, feel an aversion to it at first glance. There are the usual FUD talking points that could scare you away if you dont know any better, but this fud doesnt seem to have a real effect on the HODLers. It soon became apparent that it is nearly impossible to have an appreciation for bitcoin if you dont already see the shortcomings of the existing financial system.
It is the distinguishing qualities of bitcoin HODLers that prompted them to break allegiance from the old system and led them to demand a new one. Interestingly, the gold bugs warned us that the loss of sound money would eventually end in catastrophe. In a sense we owe it to them for sounding the alarm. However, the sound money narrative had to evolve beyond precious metals to reflect a digitally connected world.
The gold bugs, the Austrian economists, and other sound money advocates grew accustomed to being quietly swept into the corner of public discourse because of their tendency to be critical of mainstream economics. To regular folks the path of least resistance is to embrace the fiat system, as weve been so assured that the system is in good hands. However, those who seek financial autonomy, who crave logical integrity, and who value saving may find the trade-offs made in the fiat world to be intolerable.
Lets dig a little deeper to see what sets apart a true Bitcoiner from the rest of the pack. As I alluded to, Bitcoiners not always but generally tend to lean libertarian, even anarchist in some cases. There is a tension between the concepts of personal liberty and state-granted permission. Bitcoiners tend to be skeptical of propaganda and corporate media which points to a fundamental divide in where we personally derive our human rights. Are we endowed with unalienable human rights, or are we granted rights by the state so long as were in good standing with the various bureaus, branches, and departments?
Skepticism when wielded properly is not just aimed at the media out of spite or for the heck of it. Rather it is a tool for reasoning that applies to all areas of life. It is simply the default m.o. when encountering new information. A rational person applies a healthy degree of skepticism whether dealing with science, business, or politics. Along the same lines is a need for logical consistency. Bitcoiners demand intellectual honesty and accountability from both our peers and our critics.
Bitcoin tends to be popular among tinkerers, early adopters, and gamers. Bitcoiners are always trying to think two steps ahead, theyre good at reading between the lines, and analyzing the second and third order consequences.
Finally, to be a good HODLer one generally has to have a propensity to save money. That may go without saying, but it just cant be over emphasized. In a world entirely founded on credit, bitcoin challenges the conventional advice around debt and borrowing.
Theres a common denominator that ties together many of these characteristics which is what bitcoiners call low time preference. Put simply, it means they place little value on short-term gratification, opting instead to work toward long-term goals. To be fair, everyone has to put food on the table, so we cant pretend its realistic to delay gratification forever, but what we can do is make decisions about what will satisfy us today and what is worth waiting for. Bitcoin takes saving to a whole new level. We suddenly realize our everyday decisions to spend and consume carry a lot of weight when judged against the opportunity cost of owning bitcoin. Its common for Bitcoiners to undergo profound behavioral changes in the interest of saving. It might seem an excess of savings would lead to issues when it comes to stimulating the economy and the velocity of money, however the inflation/deflation debate and the mandate of perpetual growth are subjects that remain to be fully hashed out.
For these reasons bitcoin tends to resonate strongly with people who are motivated by things like math, economics, and game theory. But not everyone is wired that way; in fact, many people are not. People are motivated by all sorts of things, not the least of which are food, shelter, and love. Bitcoiners wouldnt have the luxury to opine on monetary sovereignty if their basic needs were not met, which sadly is not the reality of large groups of people in the world.
But assuming one has the bandwidth to begin to understand bitcoin, thats still no guarantee they will see any value in it if it doesnt quite scratch their itch. A mere lack of education is easily fixed, but they say its hard for a man to learn something if his job depends precisely on him not getting it.
Its hard to see the benefits of bitcoin if you dont already see the problems with centrally controlled currency. Not surprisingly people tend to feel safest knowing their dollars are in the bank and insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). What is interesting is that bitcoin HODLers feel the exact opposite they view using custodians as more risky than not, and thats what makes this topic so fascinating. Sure there will still be trusted third parties going forward, but the choice of whether to use custodians wasnt a choice we had before bitcoin.
The harsh truth is that the people who are most privileged by the financial system are the hardest to convert because they arguably have the most to lose from jumping ship. The persistence of the fiat machine relies heavily on the Cantillon class who are incentivized to bring ever more minions under their purview. And whats a more powerful tool of persuasion than the money printer itself?
This is why we see the most pushback from wealthy bankers and money managers, the likes of Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio. Not surprisingly, the most fearful rhetoric comes from the upper echelons of central banking. Central banks are supranational entities that have subtly extracted themselves from nearly all oversight and so must express a distaste for anything they dont have a hand in. They then defend their position as the self-appointed arbiters of financial stability. The sentiments of central bankers toward bitcoin is rather telling of where their interest truly lies. Fortunately, bitcoin doesnt need the approval of the immovable incumbents; their competitors in rising economies will adopt a bitcoin standard, gradually then suddenly setting off a global fomo. One by one, they come to the light, or they go the way of the dinosaurs. In bitcoin we say everyone gets the price they deserve.
I can understand the conflicts of interest in a business sense. When you have a job to do, what you say at work doesnt necessarily reflect your personal views. Okay. But I have less sympathy for people that resort to attacking bitcoin because they believe theyre too late to invest (save) and think if they cant be the boss of it then it shouldnt exist. This is quite clearly an issue of human ego. Indeed one has to learn to subjugate the ego to appreciate what bitcoin has to offer which is at the same time freedom and solidarity.
Instead we end up in a situation of fiat nihilism where everyone wants to get in on the ground level of the next bitcoin. The irony is that altcoiners seem to live in a world where bitcoin can be taken for granted. Bitcoiners, on the other hand, are under no such pretense. Theyre the ones on the frontlines making sure we succeed in making that world a reality. Altcoiners are only succeeding at bringing about the rise of fiat 2.0 which is anathema to the bitcoin ethos. Be wary of anyone who claims to support bitcoin and in the same breath tries to pitch you on their new token. Its easy to tell if a bitcoiner has pure intentions because theyre the only ones without ulterior motives.
Critics point to the unyielding optimism of bitcoiners and attribute it to arrogance. This then becomes a block in their mind and they assume if you evangelize for bitcoin that means you are just pumping your own bag. While thats superficially true, a more accurate observation is that bitcoiners actually practice what they preach. Bitcoiners put their money where their mouth is, not the other way around.
It may sound toxic to hear Bitcoiners say things like, there is no alternative, but at the end of the day toxicity is in the eye of the beholder. If your opinion of bitcoin is that its toxic, then I would question where you choose to get your news from. We say, bitcoin fixes everything, not just to be cheeky but to point out that fiat in so many ways ruins everything, and bitcoin, for once, fixes the fatal flaws in money brought about by central planning. Bitcoin is information, and information seeks to be free. The internet hit a dead end under information dictators and walled gardens, and bitcoin erodes those walls allowing participation by simply plugging into the globally interoperable network.
If you genuinely go down the bitcoin rabbit hole, you find that the only logical conclusion is to go ALL the way down it. In other words you go all in if not financially, then at least philosophically. Youre not likely to encounter someone who claims to be a bitcoin moderate. You begin to see that bitcoin may just be the only way out of the hole weve dug and our best chance at living in a free society.
I believe our job going forward is to live up to the dream of the original cypherpunks by making a habit of the following:
Throughout bitcoins history anyone who was firmly down the rabbit hole would have appeared radical in the eyes of no-coiners; just look at Max Keiser. However its clear bitcoin has passed a tipping point as its network effect takes hold and feeds on itself. What started as a small group of tinfoil-hat crypto-anarchists has grown to include people from all walks of life who share in the values of hard money, as bitcoin doesnt discriminate among its users. It is beautiful to witness the people who have been most marginalized by fiat imperialism come to have the most conviction because they see the benefits of sound money in their own lives.
The end goal of course is a globally recognized reserve asset but also to make sure we get there with the least collateral damage. This may mean moving cautiously forward to make sure we do it right. This is difficult for the fiat world to understand where people are happy to get paid today and damned be the long term consequences. However, open-source development tends to be messy and thats the trade off we make for the sake of decentralization.
Bitcoin wasnt born out of a vacuum; we have to consider the context in which the seed was planted in order to navigate what lies ahead. Can bitcoin alone achieve the dream of a free and open financial system? What else may be needed, that without it, bitcoin may face substantial headwinds? I think El Salvador may have something to say about this as the birthplace of the first bitcoin bond issued by a sovereign nation. Bitcoin calls on us to rethink everything about finance and economics from securities law to energy infrastructure. El Salvador showed us that we cant wait to get permission before innovating. At times we have to be disruptive if we want to see change. And things are just heating up.
In the future bitcoin can be said to have been a success if it becomes so entrenched in the global economy that it finally is taken for granted. In some ways that day is already here and thats something to celebrate. The work ahead lies in improving education and user experience and making sure we dont go backwards along the evolution of human action.
This is a guest post by Tyler Parks. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
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Canada’s ‘Bitcoin widow’ speaks – The Globe and Mail
Posted: at 8:57 am
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When Gerald Cotten died suddenly in 2018, he was only 30 years old, but fabulously wealthy thanks to founding Quadriga, one of the first cryptocurrency exchanges. Or at least, thats how it seemed. His death coincided with growing concerns about the legitimacy of Quadriga.
After investigating, the Ontario Securities Commission said Quadriga was run like a Ponzi scheme. More than Quadriga clients collectively lost more than $200-million.
Jennifer Kathleen Margaret Roberston was Cottens wife, and was there when he died. And despite being at the centre of a huge scandal, shes never spoken publicly about her husbands fraud or death or the suspicion it cast on her until now.
Telecom reporter Alexandra Posadzki and ROB reporter Joe Castaldo interviewed Robertson about her memoir, Bitcoin Widow: Love, Betrayal and the Missing Millions. They bring us that interview, and their expertise as journalists whove been covering this story from the beginning.
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Pebbles Before Mountains – NASA Mars – NASA Mars Exploration
Posted: at 8:56 am
NASAs Mars 2020 mission team has been working methodically and thoroughly, making good progress on understanding the best path forward to remove the uninvited pebbles from Perseverances bit carousel. Over the previous weekend, and earlier this week, operational sequences were developed and tested to remove these rocky interlopers.
With terrestrial experimentation complete, we have begun executing our mitigation strategy on Mars. On Jan. 12 we did a detailed image survey of the ground below Perseverance. This was done so we would have a good idea what rocks and pebbles already exist down there before some more from our bit carousel join them in the not-so-distant future.
With this below-chassis, preliminary imaging, in hand, the team embarked on a maneuver with our robotic arm I never imagined we would perform ever. Simply put, we are returning the remaining contents of Sample Tube 261 (our latest cored-rock sample) back to its planet of origin. Although this scenario was never designed or planned for prior to launch, it turns out dumping a core from an open tube is a fairly straightforward process (at least during Earth testing). We sent commands up yesterday, and later on today the rovers robotic arm will simply point the open end of the sample tube toward the surface of Mars and let gravity do the rest.
I imagine your next question is, Why are you dumping out the contents of the sample tube? The answer is that, at present, we are not certain how much cored rock continues to reside in Tube 261. And while this rock will never make my holiday card list, the science team really seems to like it. So if our plans go well with our pebble mitigation (see below), we may very well attempt to core Issole (the rock from which this sample was taken) again.
Which brings me to next steps in our pebble mitigation strategy: were sending up commands to the rover later today, ordering it to do two rotation tests of the bit carousel. These tests (the first, a small rotation; the second, larger) will execute this weekend. Our expectations are that these rotations and any subsequent pebble movement will help guide our team, providing them the necessary information on how to proceed. Still, to be thorough, we are also commanding the rover to take a second set of under-chassis images, just in case one or more pebbles happen to pop free.
We expect the data and imagery from these two rotation tests to be sent to Earth by next Tuesday, Jan. 18. From there, well analyze and further refine our plans. If I had to ballpark it, I would estimate well be at our current location another week or so or even more if we decide to re-sample Issole.
So there you have it. The Perseverance team is exploring every facet of the issue to ensure that we not only get rid of this rocky debris but also prevent a similar reoccurrence during future sampling. Essentially, we are leaving no rock unturned in the pursuit of these four pebbles.
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‘Alien base on Mars that NASA doesn’t want you to know,’ UFO expert claims – Daily Star
Posted: at 8:56 am
A UFO researcher claims to have found a 25km wide alien base on the surface of Mars which he claims NASA is hiding from the public.
The self-proclaimed expert, Scott C. Waring, is known for his outlandish theories about alien life and UFOs which he documents on his blog, UFO Sightings Daily.
But while his site has gone down, Waring has taken to Twitter to share his latest conspiracy theory with several grey images highlighting a rectangular shaped object on the surface of the red planet.
Explaining the sighting, Waring tweeted: "Found a 25km Base on Mars. 25km according to the ruler on the map. Location to the right of Sulci Gordii.
"NASA doesn't want you to know about it. UFO Sighting News...site is down so I will just post what I find here."
During his explanation, he said that the base is located near Sulci Gordii which are subparallel furrows and ridges in the rocks of the red planet which would offer a plausible explanation for the shape he spotted.
However, this isn't the first sighting the so-called expert has made on Mars as last year. He claimed to spot an alien's face carved in rocks on the planet's surface.
He believes the carving similar to the US's presidents' faces etched into Mount Rushmore could to be up to 10,00 years old which could be evidence that life previously inhabited the red planet.
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He said: "I found an ancient alien face carved into the top side of the mountain. It shows the side profile of an almost human-like alien species.
"The face is built along the hill in a way that closely resembles the American Mount Rushmore and the carved US presidents on it. From the wear and tear of the surface, I think that this is over 100,000 years old!
"This face gives us some idea of what the aliens looked like on Mars long ago. They clearly were intelligent since they carved this face in the side of the mountain. Undeniable proof that intelligent life once roamed the surface of Mars."
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Games Bring Space Exploration Home. But They Omit the Full Risks – WIRED
Posted: at 8:56 am
Imagine hurtling past asteroids on a cutting-edge spacecraft, calculating the speed boost youll get by whipping past a massive planet, navigating space radiation hazards, and developing plausible and speculative technologies for rocket propulsion and for sifting for valuable resources. Its not just NASA scientists who study such things; with the latest board games, everyone can.
Board games have advanced quite a bit since the Settlers of Catan came on the scene a quarter century ago. Games with space themes, in particular, have proliferated in recent years, and while a few of the new generation of games do resemble classic ones, sort of like Risk or Monopoly in space, many others are completely different. A candidate for the most complex game is surely High Frontier, which released its fourth edition in 2020 and has more expansions, or modules, to come. It encourages people to play as space agencies like NASA or Roscosmos (or companies like SpaceX) while designing quick and agile or loaded rockets that bring crews to distant worlds, where one needs to extract water for fuel and mine minerals for building yet more rocket components.
Other board games include Leaving Earth, about space agencies competing during the early space race, SpaceCorp: 2025-2300 AD, about companies exploring the inner and outer solar system and then establishing interstellar colonies, and Gaia Project, where factions of different species compete to terraform neighboring planets to their liking.
In Terraforming Mars, players acting as corporationssome environmentally conscious ones and some notrace to bring the world back to life. They work toward generating a greenhouse gas effect to warm up the planet, they improve conditions for plants to grow, they raise the oxygen level in the air, they make surface water flow once again, and they even build cities for settlers. If one day humans attempt to transform Mars into a human-friendly place, where a stroll outside without a spacesuit wouldnt mean certain death, the technologies they use could be similar to those envisioned in this game.
These impressively advanced games, most of which were released over the past five years, really do bring the future of space exploration to the coffee table. But in doing so, they sidestep controversial ethical questions.
Now that real-world space exploration beyond our atmosphere is finally happening, one can picture how all this could play out in real life. The long-term visions of space agencies and space billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos all involve astronauts visiting, if not settling and building on, other worlds. Humans will likely return to the moon within five years or so, thanks to NASAs Artemis program and to Chinese missions and companies like Blue Origin, Moon Express, and Astrobotic. Using those lunar outposts as way stations en route to deep space, theyll set foot on Mars within the next two decades. Mining for water and building materials will likely come in our lifetimes too, while traveling to asteroids and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn could take decades longer, as theyre complicated by the vast distances from our home world and by the need for non-solar power so far away from the sun.
Some space games today include such technical and logistical complications, and they evoke the very real tensions between international rivalries and international cooperation in space. But they dont engage with broader questions, even as experts have begun debating: Is terraforming a good idea? Whose decision is it to make, and who should take responsibility for the risks involved? On Earth, ideas of transforming our climate and atmosphere to combat climate change, called geoengineering, remain contentious (although they one day might become necessary). But terraforming is even more complex, and theres a big chance it might not work. And as the Gaia Project game shows, terraforming means different things for different species, and it cant be simultaneously livable for aliens with opposite needs. Most planets cant be turned into an ice world and a hothouse at the same time.
People have also begun discussing the perils of space mining and the challenges of doing it sustainably and without defacing the surfaces of other worlds. But who decides that they can take space resources only for themselves? And since those resources dont replenish themselves, how sustainable can it be?
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Learn quantum computing: a field guide – IBM Quantum
Posted: at 8:54 am
Quantum theory is a revolutionary advancement in physics and chemistrythat emerged in the early twentieth century. It is an elegantmathematical theory able to explain the counterintuitive behavior ofsubatomic particles, most notably the phenomenon of entanglement. Inthe late twentieth century it was discovered that quantum theory appliesnot only to atoms and molecules, but to bits and logic operations in acomputer. This realization has brought about a revolution in thescience and technology of information processing, making possible kindsof computing and communication hitherto unknown in the Information Age.
Our everyday computers perform calculations and process information using thestandard (or classical) model ofcomputation, which dates back toTuring and vonNeumann. In thismodel, all information is reducible to bits, which can take the valuesof either 0 or 1. Additionally, all processing can be performed via simple logicgates (AND, OR, NOT, XOR, XNOR)acting on one or two bits at a time, or be entirely described by NAND (or NOR).At any point in its computation, aclassical computers state is entirely determined by the states of allits bits, so that a computer with n bits can exist in one of2^n possible states, ranging from 00...0 to11...1 .
The power of the quantum computer, meanwhile, lies in its much richerrepertoire of states. A quantum computer also has bits but instead of0 and 1, its quantum bits, or qubits, can represent a 0, 1, or linearcombination of both, which is a property known as superposition.This on its own is no special thing, since a computer whose bits can beintermediate between 0 and 1 is just an analog computer, scarcely morepowerful than an ordinary digital computer. However, a quantum computertakes advantage of a special kind of superposition that allows forexponentially many logical states at once, all the states from|00...0rangle to |11...1rangle . This is a powerfulfeat, and no classical computer can achieve it.
The vast majority of quantum superpositions, and the ones most useful for quantumcomputation, are entangled. Entangled states are states of the whole computerthat do not correspond to any assignment of digital or analog states ofthe individual qubits. A quantum computer is therefore significantly more powerfulthan any one classical computer whether it be deterministic,probabilistic, or analog.
While todays quantum processors are modest in size, their complexity growscontinuously. We believe this is the right time to build and engage a communityof new quantum learners, spark further interest in those who are curious,and foster a quantum intuition in the greater community.By making quantum concepts more widely understood even on a generallevel we can more deeply explore all the possibilities quantumcomputing offers, and more rapidly bring its exciting power to a worldwhose perspective is limited by classical physics.
With this in mind, we created the IBM Quantum Composer to provide the hands-onopportunity to experiment with operations on a real quantum computingprocessor. This field guide contains a series of topicsto accompany your journey as you create your own experiments, run them insimulation, and execute them on real quantum processorsavailable via IBM Cloud.
If quantum physics sounds challenging to you, you are not alone. But ifyou think the difficulty lies in hard math, think again. Quantum conceptscan, for the most part, be described by undergraduate-level linear algebra,so if you have ever taken a linear algebra course, the math will seem familiar.
The true challenge of quantum physics is internalizing ideas that arecounterintuitive to our day-to-day experiences in the physical world,which of course are constrained by classical physics. To comprehendthe quantum world, you must build a new intuition for a set of simple butvery different (and often surprising) laws.
The counterintuitive principles of quantum physics are:
1.A physical system in a definite state can still behaverandomly.
2.Two systems that are too far apart to influence each other cannevertheless behave in ways that, though individually random,are somehow strongly correlated.
Unfortunately, there is no single simple physicalprinciple from which these conclusions follow and we must guard againstattempting to describe quantum concepts in classical terms!The best we can do is to distill quantum mechanics down to a fewabstract-sounding mathematical laws, from which all the observed behaviorof quantum particles (and qubits in a quantum computer) can be deduced andpredicted.
Keep those two counterintuitive ideas in the back of your mind, let goof your beliefs about how the physical world works, and begin exploringthe quantum world!
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Quantum Computing: Technologies and Global Markets to 2026 – GlobeNewswire
Posted: at 8:54 am
New York, Jan. 17, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Reportlinker.com announces the release of the report "Quantum Computing: Technologies and Global Markets to 2026" - https://www.reportlinker.com/p05480379/?utm_source=GNW
Revenue forecasts for this period are segmented based on offering, deployment, technology, application, end-user industry and region.
The report also focuses on the major trends and challenges that affect the market and the competitive landscape.It explains the current market trends and provides detailed profiles of the major players and the strategies they adopt to enhance their market presence.
The report estimates the size of the global quantum computing market in 2020 and provides projections of the expected market size through 2026.
Report Includes:- 59 data tables and 54 additional tables- An updated review of the global markets for commercial quantum computing technologies- Analyses of the global market trends, with data from 2020 to 2021, estimates for 2022 and 2024, along with projections of compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) through 2026- Evaluation and forecast the global quantum computing market size in dollar value terms, and corresponding market share analysis by offering, technology, deployment, application, end-user industry and region- Identification of the quantum computing technologies and products with the greatest commercial potential- Technology assessment of the key drivers and constraints that will shape the market for quantum computing over the next ten years- Understanding of the upcoming market opportunities and areas of focus to forecast the market into various segments and sub-segments- Highlights of COVID-19 implications on the progress of this market- Identification of the companies best positioned to meet this demand because of their proprietary technologies, strategic alliances or other advantages- Review of the key patent grants and new technologies in the quantum computing sector- Insight into the recent industry strategies, such as M&A deals, joint ventures, collaborations, and license agreements currently focused on commercial quantum computing products and service- Company profiles of the key industry players, including Alphabet Inc., Cambridge Quantum Computing, Honeywell International Inc., International Business Machines (IBM) Corp., Microsoft Corp. and Toshiba Corp.
Summary:Quantumcomputing is the gateway to the future.It can revolutionize computation bymaking certain types of classically stubborn problems solvable.
Currently, no quantumcomputer ismature enough to performcalculations that traditional computers cannot, but great progress has beenmade in the last fewyears.Several large and small start-ups are using non-error-corrected quantumcomputersmade up of dozens of qubits, some ofwhich are even publicly accessible via the cloud.
Quantumcomputing helps scientists accelerate their discoveries in related areas, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence.
The global quantumcomputingmarketwas estimated atREDACTED in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of REDACTED from2021 to 2026. Early adoption of quantumcomputers in the banking and financial industries, increased investment in quantumcomputing technology, and the rise of numerous strategicpartnerships and collaborations are the main drivers behind the market growth.
The trend towards strategicapproaches such as partnerships and collaborations are expected to continue.As quantumcomputer vendorsmove to quantumdevelopment, the consumer industrieswill seek to adopt current and newquantumtechnologies to gain a competitive advantage.
The technological hurdles in implementation of the quantumsystems, aswell as lack of quantumskills, can limit market growth. However, increasing adoption of quantumtechnology in healthcare, increasing demand for computing power and the introduction of cloud-based quantumcomputing services are expected to open up newmarket opportunities during the forecast period.
Between 2021 and 2026, many companieswith optimization problemsmay adopt a hybrid approach where some of the problems are handled by classical computing and the rest by quantumcomputers. The demand for quantumcomputers is expected to growfrommultiple end-user industries, from finance to pharmaceuticals, automobiles to aerospace.Many industries, such as banks, are now using cloud-based quantumservices.
There is no doubt that quantumcomputerswill be expensivemachines to develop andwill be operated by a small numberof key players.Companies like Google and IBM plan to double the performance of quantumcomputers each year.
In addition, a small but important cohort of promising start-ups is steadily increasing the numberof qubits a computer can process. This creates an immersive opportunity for the global quantumcomputingmarket growth in the coming years.
This report has divided the global quantumcomputingmarket based on offering, technology, deployment, application, end-user industry and region.Based on offering, the market is segmented into systemsand services.
The servicesmemory segment held the largestmarket share, and it is expected to register the highest CAGR, at REDACTED, during the forecast period. The services segment includes quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) and consulting services.Read the full report: https://www.reportlinker.com/p05480379/?utm_source=GNW
About ReportlinkerReportLinker is an award-winning market research solution. Reportlinker finds and organizes the latest industry data so you get all the market research you need - instantly, in one place.
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Innovative New Algorithms Advance the Computing Power of Early-Stage Quantum Computers – SciTechDaily
Posted: at 8:54 am
A group of scientists at the U.S. Department of Energys Ames Laboratory has developed computational quantum algorithms that are capable of efficient and highly accurate simulations of static and dynamic properties of quantum systems. The algorithms are valuable tools to gain greater insight into the physics and chemistry of complex materials, and they are specifically designed to work on existing and near-future quantum computers.
Scientist Yong-Xin Yao and his research partners at Ames Lab use the power of advanced computers to speed discovery in condensed matter physics, modeling incredibly complex quantum mechanics and how they change over ultra-fast timescales. Current high performance computers can model the properties of very simple, small quantum systems, but larger or more complex systems rapidly expand the number of calculations a computer must perform to arrive at an accurate model, slowing the pace not only of computation, but also discovery.
This is a real challenge given the current early-stage of existing quantum computing capabilities, said Yao, but it is also a very promising opportunity, since these calculations overwhelm classical computer systems, or take far too long to provide timely answers.
The new algorithms tap into the capabilities of existing quantum computer capabilities by adaptively generating and then tailoring the number and variety of educated guesses the computer needs to make in order to accurately describe the lowest-energy state and evolving quantum mechanics of a system. The algorithms are scalable, making them able to model even larger systems accurately with existing current noisy (fragile and prone to error) quantum computers, and their near-future iterations.
Accurately modeling spin and molecular systems is only the first part of the goal, said Yao, In application, we see this being used to solve complex materials science problems. With the capabilities of these two algorithms, we can guide experimentalists in their efforts to control materials properties like magnetism, superconductivity, chemical reactions, and photo-energy conversion.
Our long-term goal is to reach quantum advantage for materials to utilize quantum computing to achieve capabilities that cannot be achieved on any supercomputer today, said Ames Laboratory Scientist Peter Orth.
This topic is further discussed in two papers: (1)Adaptive Variational Quantum Dynamics Simulation, authored by Y.-X. Yao, N. Gomes, F. Zhang, C.-Z. Wang, K.-M. Ho, T. Iadecola, and P. P. Orth; and published in PRX Quantum; (2) Adaptive Variational Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution Approach for Ground State Preparation, authored by N. Gomes, A. Mukherjee, F. Zhang, T. Iadecola, C.-Z. Wang, K.-M. Ho, P. P. Orth, Y.-X. Yao; accepted in Advanced Quantum Technologies.
Ames Laboratory is a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science National Laboratory operated by Iowa State University. Ames Laboratory creates innovative materials, technologies and energy solutions. We use our expertise, unique capabilities and interdisciplinary collaborations to solve global problems.
Ames Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy. The Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States, and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time.
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