Daily Archives: January 11, 2022

By John Ruch

A truism of the Buckhead cityhood debate is that its unique, this spectacle of a huge community trying to secede from a major U.S. city. Thing is, thats not true.

Up in Alaska, a community called Eagle River is leading several others in a secession quest to unanchor themselves from Anchorage. The movement has instructive similarities with Buckhead City, from conservative politics to a mutual consultant. And it goes by Eaglexit, a Brexit-inspired name that situates these municipal efforts in a bigger context of secession sentiments like the National Divorce and right-wing populism that the establishment repeatedly ignores or misunderstands at its peril.

Majority white and concentrated with fabulous wealth as a legacy of Jim Crow segregation, and annexed in 1952 partly for racist fears of a Black-run Atlanta, Buckhead has always been different from other neighborhoods. An irony for some cityhood opponents is how their handling of modern differences has fueled the secession sentiment: the touting of local exceptionalism including even the creation of a neighborhood flag and aloof, back-room policy-making. Buckhead has a communal exasperation with City Hall and big business that pretty easily shifts into an identity fraught with grievance and opposition. Even if cityhood dies this year, attitudes along that spectrum arent changing anytime soon. As it is, the Buckhead City Committee (BCC) is hammering the goal-post-moving idea that nothing the new mayor says or does can be better than cityhood.

I heard similar sentiments when I spoke to Sean Murphy, the chair of Eaglexit.

Anchorage elected a conservative mayor after a string of liberals, Murphy noted as a win last year for Eaglexits political base. But, he added, the quest to sever any political ties with the city continues because we are different culturally, socioeconomically.

Another similarity with Buckhead City is the rhetorical metaphor of dissolving a marriage the Great Divorce, as one prominent Eaglexit supporter calls it. The same metaphor is deployed in the National Divorce, a Civil War-esque notion of the U.S.s red and blue states separating into distinct countries. That idea recently got social media promotion from U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a far-right conspiracy theorist who last year supported Buckhead cityhood in a tweet that pictured her side-by-side with BCC Chairman and CEO Bill White.

Eaglexit and Buckhead City also share a consultant Oliver Porter, the architect of the City of Sandy Springs initial method of outsourcing almost all government services following its 2005 incorporation in north Fulton County.

He basically gave us the foundation that this is a political process, Murphy said of Porter. He wanted to really let it be known, even if youre just trying to educate people at this time and gain support, this is a really political process and you really want to play that from the start.

Of course, Eaglexit has many differences from the Buckhead movement, from politics to sheer scale. (The secession area covers over 1,000 square miles of the sprawling city.) But its unique story also has local lessons for how legally messy the process can get and how enduring cityhood sentiment can remain.

The Eagle River area actually won its municipalization battle briefly over 45 years ago before quickly being ruled unconstitutional by the Alaska Supreme Court. According to Eaglexit, the idea came about after requests for better policing. In 1974, voters approved the creation of a new Chugiak-Eagle River Borough a regional government akin to a Georgia county. Lawsuits ensued and the borough was killed even though its government had formed. In 1976, backers tried to reincorporate as another form of borough but were denied by a state commission on several grounds, including constitutional issues, its status as an integral part of the city, and lack of natural boundaries or a sufficient tax base.

Nearly 30 years later, in 2004, the cityhood idea revived with calls for more local control of taxes and schools. But a feasibility study was unkind. It said that leaving Anchorage would mean higher taxes or cuts in services and schools in some areas though some backers said the price would be worth paying. As with Buckhead City, bond debt and City contracts were concerns. Eaglexit says the movement lost momentum after the studys talk of how divorce proceedings would be long, tedious and potentially divisive.

Another 15 years and the idea returned in 2019 as Eaglexit. The new version overlaps with Assembly District 2, Anchorages version of a city council or county commission district, and has a positive feasibility study in its pocket. Similar to Buckhead City, the movement also had an initial chair who was a state Republican Party operative known for inflammatory political tweets. Somewhat controversially, Eaglexit has partnered with a Texas nonprofit called the Justice Foundation, a small-government advocacy group particularly known for anti-abortion work, as a fiscal agent.

Eaglexit is working on further study and is in an educational phase. Some of its motives were expressed in an online survey. One question asked whether respondents wanted more local control of decisions regarding taxation, schools, land use and public safety. Another asked if they agreed that Assembly District 2 has a different identity, and different values than Anchorage does.

Anchorage Assembly has nine members that are totally liberal Marxists and two who are not, and those two represent us, Murphy said. And the flip side of that is there are conservatives in Anchorage who dont want to lose our vote.

Another political challenge, Murphy said, is the demand for more details in the break-up plan. There are people, they want all the answers before they can jump, and thats hard to overcome, he said.

Buckhead City is facing the same challenge, and it remains to be seen whether the legislature or governor or voters, if it comes to that, will be convinced. If not, thats unlikely to be the end. Like its northern counterpart, Buckhead cityhood is an old idea, last seen in a big public meeting in 2008, now re-emerging from dormancy.

Previous failure is one reason the current Buckhead City momentum has caught Atlantas movers and shakers by surprise. But its striking how theyve also simply misread its political chances, much the way the establishment in 2016 underestimated Donald Trump (whose family, it happens, is friendly with White, the BCC leader).

Early attention to the BCCs pitch zoomed in on details of crime stats and municipal finances, missing that the appeal is really about more conservative political and cultural reactions to how a city handles those subjects, with its local support coming mostly from Republican residents. The overlooked larger dynamic was the state Republican Partys chance to mess with Blue Atlanta.

Opponents are now engaged with the state-level political battle, but this isnt just about parties. The populist aspect is still being overlooked and the cityhood notion wouldnt be going anywhere without it.

Buckhead separatism isnt hard to conceive when, if were honest, its often talked about as quasi-separate already, sometimes by locals living in a bubble and sometimes by fellow Atlantans who treat it like an embarrassing uncle from north Fulton. Its been that way for years, but this is a time when self-determination and anti-elitism is the hot trend across the political spectrum. Part of the establishment surprise about Buckhead cityhood is that politicians and tycoons didnt simply gather behind closed doors and strangle it in its crib like theyve done with other disfavored ideas via the Atlanta Way. It may just be working slower, but the Atlanta Way took a beating from candidates this year in an election where voters clearly wanted to sweep out old-school figures and have more citizen input in government.

The notion of financially elite Buckhead being populist may seem counterintuitive, but long before the BCC came along, locals have agitated about remote and unresponsive government. Some of its cranky or partisan, but its true that Atlanta really did cook up some zoning changes in secretive and confusing ways and really did have a mayor stupendously absent in the wake of shocking crimes. A bigger question is what kind of populism appeals, as the cityhood brand is showing its capacity for taking dark turns with Whites recent social media posts about race and racism. Meanwhile, Mayor Andre Dickens is trying his own personal touch with support from local grassroots anti-cityhood groups.

Its remarkable enough that even the immediate future of the cityhood legislation is hard to predict as it goes before the General Assembly in a session that began this week. Or that if it doesnt pass in 2022, its not hard to predict its return in a lot less than 45 or 20 or 15 years from now.

See the article here:

Alaska and Buckhead cityhood movements show similar ties to right-wing populism - SaportaReport

Sir, I feel compelled to respond to Neil Cronin and Niall Gintys (separate) defences of centrist democracy, apparently under threat in Ireland from populist forces similar to those unleashed in the US on January 6th, 2021 (Letters, January 8th).

Neither correspondent chose to name the source of this supposed threat, perhaps to maintain the delicious frisson of fear which keeps centrists cosy in their beds at night.

We may safely infer, however, that their comments were directed towards Sinn Fin (after all, next to the more excitable cohort of the partys supporters, it is only militant centrists who view Sinn Fin as a material threat to the status quo).

This concept of populism deserves closer scrutiny. The term has no fixed meaning, but is most commonly deployed (in Ireland, at least) to lampoon policies which privilege the public interest over the demands of the wealth-hoarding classes.

It is, of course, entirely a coincidence that the sober, realistic, pragmatic path advocated by opponents of populism is always the one which further enriches the rich.

Indeed, this caricatured populism the promise of goodies which cannot be delivered in the real world could more aptly be applied to the establishments handling of the ongoing pandemic. How else to account for its insistence that no amount of death or disease can, or should, interfere with the consumption patterns of Fine Gaels and Fianna Fils voter base?

How else to describe its belief that schools, pubs and restaurants exist in a magical bubble wherein the laws of epidemiology do not apply? How else to define its habitual and divisive haranguing of (always unionised) workforces as privileged elites whenever their interests conflict with those of the State and its corporate clients?

Theirs is neither a productive nor a popular form of populism, but it is (alas!) the closest thing to such a phenomenon which currently exists in our politically impoverished State. Yours, etc,

TURLOUGH

KELLY,

Ringsend,

Dublin 4.

Link:

Populism and politics - The Irish Times

Investors and policymakers alike will have to come to grips with a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon as the post-financial-crisis, pre-pandemic New Normal decade of subpar-but-stable growth, below-target inflation, subdued volatility, and juicy asset returns is rapidly fading in the rear-view mirror.

What lies ahead is a more uncertain and uneven growth and inflation environment with plenty of pitfalls for policymakers. Amid disruption, division, and divergence, overall capital market returns will likely be lower and more volatile. But active investors capable of navigating the difficult terrain should find good alpha opportunities.

Read Spotlight

Initial conditions

As such, this year's secular thesis further develops the themes we highlighted in our 2020 Secular Outlook - Escalating Disruption. PIMCO argued then that the pandemic would serve as a catalyst for accelerating and amplifying four important secular disruptors: the China-U.S. rivalry, populism, technology, and climate change.

Developments over the past year have reinforced those expectations. China-U.S. tensions have not only continued but intensified under the Biden administration. Populism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, further fuelled by politically charged divisions over lockdowns and vaccines.

Digitalization and automation have been turbocharged by the pandemic. Extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world have also inflicted severe human and economic losses and contributed to major gyrations in energy markets. In our forum discussions we concluded that each of these secular disruptors will remain active in the foreseeable future.

Another important initial condition for the secular outlook is the sharp further increase in public and private sector debt caused by the pandemic recession and the policy responses. To be sure, with borrowing costs at or close to record lows, record high debt levels are not an immediate concern. However, higher leverage implies heightened vulnerability of public and private sector balance sheets to negative growth shocks and to positive interest rate shocks, thus increasing the risk of destabilizing runs on sovereign and private borrowers.

Moreover, elevated debt levels and highly financialized economies as measured by wealth-to-income ratios will likely constrain central banks' ability to push interest rates aggressively higher without causing severe economic pain - a financial market dominance theme.

To learn more about the key risk facing income investors and how the PIMCO team approach mitigtating these while building more resiliant income click on the button below.

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This post was funded by PIMCO

For investment professionals only.PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. PIMCO Europe Ltd services are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority's Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication.

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Partner Insight: Which disruptive themes might drive the post-pandemic economy? - Investment Week

An incisive account of Erdoans Turkey showing how its troubling transformation may be short-lived

Since coming to power in 2002 Recep Tayyip Erdoan has overseen a radical transformation of Turkey. Once a pillar of the Western alliance, the country has embarked on a militaristic foreign policy, intervening in regional flashpoints from Nagorno-Karabakh to Libya. And its democracy, sustained by the aspiration to join the European Union, has given way to one-man rule.Dimitar Bechev traces the political trajectory of Erdoans populist regime, from the era of reform and prosperity in the 2000s to the effects of the war in neighboring Syria. In a tale of missed opportunities, Bechev explores how Turkey parted ways with the United States and Europe, embraced Putins Russia and other revisionist powers, and replaced a frail democratic regime with an authoritarian one. Despite this, he argues that Turkeys democratic instincts are resilient, its economic ties to Europe are as strong as ever, and Erdoan will fail to achieve a fully autocratic regime.

A sweeping attempt to capture the last 20 years of Turkey, Bechev skilfully traces the radical transformation of Turkeys domestic and foreign policies under Recep Tayyip Erdoan. An outstanding book from one of the best.Gnl Tol, Middle East Institute

A compelling narrative, rich in anecdotes, quotes, and carefully chosen empirical examples, enlivens an in-depth historical analysis of Turkeys evolution from the 1970s until today. Bechev charts Turkeys modernization, the rise of Islamist populism, its geopolitical shift from the periphery of the West to its bid for regional hegemony, as well as the weaknesses of the competitive authoritarian regime that its President Erdoan has crafted.Rosa Balfour, Director of Carnegie Europe

Bechev analyzes the two decades that witnessed the evolution of President Erdoan from a seemingly EU-friendly Muslim democrat to a strongman. He masterfully portrays how the shifts in AKPs foreign policy were intertwined with rising authoritarian practices in Turkey.Professor Aye Kadolu, Sabanci University

Read this article:

Turkey Under Erdoan: How a Country Turned from Democracy and the West - Carnegie Europe

With his politics that is decidedly leftist and populist, even if Arvind Kejriwal cannot break into leading the Opposition in 2024, he could be very well positioned by 2029

The latest opinion poll on the forthcoming Assembly elections almost gives Punjab to AAP outright. At 53-57 seats expected to be won by it, it is just short of a majority in the 117 seat Punjab Assembly. This is up from the 20 it opened its account with in the 2017 elections. These present indications are higher than another poll conducted a few weeks ago.

If these poll predictions turn out to be true, and the AAPs good showing in the recently held municipal elections in Chandigarh suggest that they are, it is a momentous shift in Punjab politics.

It means the people there are fed up with the binary of the Akali Dal and Congress that has dominated its politics for decades, ever since the state was formed. It wants to give the AAP a chance to tackle its many woes. It does not want the elderly, do-nothing, Amarinder Singh in another configuration. It rejects the noisy, Pakistan/Khalistan loving Navjot Sidhu, and the sudden emergence of Christian-Sikh Charanjit Singh Channi. It wont countenance the corrupt Badals yet again.

The AAP, according to the same poll, is expected to open its account in Uttarakhand and Goa as well. This stands in contrast with the efforts of Mamata Banerjee, a wannabe leader of the Oppositiongathbandhan,with or without Congress. The TMC, mighty electorally in West Bengal, where it defeated the BJP in a straight contest, making it an apparent giant killer, was trounced in neighbouring, largely Bengali-speaking Tripura. From all accounts, it is likely to do badly in Goa too. If the TMC remains confined to West Bengal electorally, can it properly aspire to a national role?

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Also Read

How Arvind Kejriwal's AAP seeks to make inroads into Punjab ahead of Assembly polls

Why Arvind Kejriwal is in Punjab and who will be AAP CM face in the 2022 Assembly election

How Kejriwals gravy train is going places via Ayodhya, and why others are joining him too

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So will these results, if they are borne out on election day, position Arvind Kejriwal as a dark horse prime ministerial candidate at the head of the Opposition alliance under formation?

The problem with Congress is that its leadership is unacceptable to many in the Opposition, despite its position in power, with its own chief minister in Rajasthan, Punjab and Chhattisgarh. This looks like it will be reduced to two. The Congress also supports the state governments in Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, but with small potatoes.

Still, no Opposition alliance, as of now, can do without the Congress numbers if it keeps over 40 MPs after the general election of 2024. Even if it is reduced further, the arithmetic demands its inclusion. But Rahul Gandhi is not acceptable to many, even as the mother-son duo in Congress are unwilling to cede the leadership of both the party and the Opposition to anyone else.

Arvind Kejriwal is relatively young, IIT educated, an excellent orator in both Hindi and English. He has held a government job in the Income Taxs CBDT. And done considerable social work in his early activist career. He has won the Magsaysay Award. He has worked with Mother Teresa. He is already a two-term chief minister of Delhi with a thumping, absolute majority on both occasions.

Kejriwal has worked hard with his fellow party strategists to widen the AAP footprint, and now looks on the verge of succeeding, with a big-prize border state. Kejriwals desire to have control of a full-state under the Indian Constitution is about to be realised.

His politics is decidedly leftist and populist, but it resonates with a large section of the poor voting public, migrant labour, the largely powerless, the shirtless in an Eva Peronesque way. He also has quite a few adherents amongst the elite. Even if Kejriwal cannot break into leading the Opposition in 2024, he could be very well positioned by 2029.

India is largely in love with socialism. It does nothing for the economy, as Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal well know, but it keeps their cadres happy to receive regular handouts. Years of 2 percent GDP growth or less, plus double-digit inflation have not cured the Indian public of it.

Both West Bengal and the half-state of Delhi have precarious financials. Punjab is equally bad, but it is likely to wreck its finances further if the AAP takes over. It is a style of government that wilfully keeps the voter happy on borrowed money and by diverting funds from any other heads of account. A fair amount of corruption and slush money is also par for the course. Development is reduced to future promises and IOUs.

The Congress, in power for decades earlier, has bred this corruption, subsidy, freebie, loan-waiver culture into the political DNA of India, by always positioning this nation as a poor country. Foundation stones may be laid in profusion but projects were rarely completed.

The GDP growth and modernisation that the BJP has pushed is largely incomprehensible to Indias teeming millions. The IMF and World Bank might like our fiscal responsibility, as do foreign investors, but the vast public finds all this remote from its reality. And this includes quite a few in the middle class.

What it does understand is Hindutva and Hindu pride. It is this that has taken the BJP to the pole position and is likely to keep it there through 2024 and 2029. That is, as long as it remembers what works with its voting public fed up with minority appeasement. It wants a Hindu Rashtra as soon as possible.

But the rise of the AAP cannot be ignored. The public loves its style of apparent concern for the poorest. The BJP, like the Congress before it, must give away even larger tranches of money to please the electorate. And yes, have a two-tier system aimed at the have-nots and the haves.

The public at the bottom of the pyramid does not think it has the capacity to self-propel itself out of its poverty, even with government help. It has too many bullying local bosses. It possibly does not aspire to a better life that involves much hard work and uncertainty at the end of it.

The teach a man to fish logic that Prime Minister Narendra Modi believes in, has its counterpart in getting something just for existing. A significant section of the Indian public is not convinced about the concept of being given opportunities under various government programmes supported by government incentives and infrastructure. This model may have worked in Gujarat, but does not stand a chance in West Bengal and those who want to copy its electoral success and mass popularity.

The Indian way is to assimilate all influences into itself to strengthen its core. The best way to beat the AAP which has a long march ahead before it attains central power, is to outdo it at its own game. The BJP that rules in most of the states and at the Centre has immense resources to work with. If it puts a lot of it to work for Hindus, the AAP and TMC model of minority appeasement-cum-populism can be stemmed and confined.

The writer is a Delhi-based commentator on political and economic affairs. The views expressed are personal.

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Link:

How Arvind Kejriwal has best chance to emerge on national scene and challenge BJP - Firstpost