Daily Archives: January 11, 2022

EERA DeepWind Conference 2022

TRONDHEIM, Norway, Jan. 11 (Korea Bizwire) Offshore wind power will be a key solution for Europe to reach its climate targets, and EERA, SINTEF and NTNU are showcasing the best and latest research and innovation in the field at theEERA DeepWind conference.

Skyrocketing energy prices in Europe and the pressing need to expand renewable energy to solve the climate crisis are making offshore wind more relevant than ever. Offshore wind has the potential to meet our energy needs many times over, says conference chair John Olav Tande, Chief Scientist SINTEF, and we must work quickly to make use of its potential.

The conference this year will be opened by Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy Marte Mjs Persen.Keynote speakersinclude among many others Manager of Offshore Wind Technology at Equinor, Hanne Wigum; professor at the North China Electric Power Universitys Renewable Energy School, Yongqian Liu; and Senior Policy Officer at the European Commission, Matthijs Soede.

DeepWind features top experts and leaders in the fields of offshore wind policy, technology and research. Topics addressed this year are:

For the second year in a row, the conference will be held online due to the ongoing pandemic. This provides a unique opportunity for people around the world who are interested in offshore wind power to participate and get up-to-date with the latest and best research and innovation in the field.

Anyone wishing to participate canregister nowto join us online 19-21 January!

The conference is organised by the European Energy Research Alliance (EERA), Norwegian research institute SINTEF, and Norwegian University of Science and Technology NTNU.

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About SINTEF

SINTEF is one of Europes largest independent research organizations. SINTEF is a broad, multidisciplinary research organisation with international top-level expertise in the fields of technology, the natural sciences,medicineand the social sciences. We conduct contract R&D as a partner for the private and public sectors, and we are one of the largest contract research institutions in Europe.https://www.sintef.com/

Formedia accreditation,more informationorinterviewsplease contact:

Edwin Shankar, +47 415 23 012,edwin.shankar@leidar.com

This content was issued through thepress release distribution service at Newswire.com.

Source: SINTEF via GLOBE NEWSWIRE

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Global Offshore Wind Conference Showcases Best and Latest Research - The Korea Bizwire

Highlights

Chairman likens offshore potential to Vaca Muerta shale play

Argentina could replicate Brazil's offshore boom

Most oil production will be for export as country already in surplus

Argentina's state-backed energy company YPF expects its first offshore project in years to produce up to 200,000 b/d, helping to increase exports, chairman Pablo Gonzalez said.

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"Argentina has enormous potential in its offshore basin," he said in comments shared by a company source Jan. 10.

Gonzalez said CAN 100, the first project the company is developing offshore in years, "has the potential to generate 200,000 barrels of oil per day, a production similar to that currently produced by all of YPF."

YPF produces about 253,000 b/d of crude, according to data from the Argentina Oil and Gas Institute, an industry group.

Gonzalez said the offshore resources "could equal those in Vaca Muerta," referring to the country's huge shale play in northern Patagonia that is driving a recovery in Argentina's overall oil production and boosting exports. Argentina's oil production rose 15.3% to 546,672 b/d in November from 473,946 b/d in the year-earlier month, according to latest data from the Energy Secretariat.

YPF, the country's biggest oil and natural gas producer, is beginning to explore CAN 100 after farming in Norway's Equinor in 2019 and subsequently Shell. The companies, which are also exploring other blocks in the North Argentina Basin off the coast of Buenos Aires province on the maritime border with Uruguay, gained environmental approval for CAN 100 and other blocks at the end of December 2021.

The companies plan to invest a total of $6 billion in developing CAN 100, Gonzalez said.

He said this could put Argentina in the offshore league with Brazil, which has been developing its offshore acreage for years and is becoming a leading global supplier.

"The countries that bet on offshore development achieved a very positive impact on the economy of their countries, without affecting the environment," Gonzalez said. "The case of Brazil serves as an example of how this path of reconciling economic development and environmental sustainability was achieved."

Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras is seeking to boost its oil production by about 100,000 b/d each year to reach 2.6 million b/d in 2026, with the country's offshore subsalt fields to account for 79% of its production, according to company data.

Gonzalez said Argentina could replicate this growth in its offshore acreage, much of which is unexplored.

"We have the opportunity to do it now," he said. "In the framework of energy transitions, we can place Argentina at the center of countries' strategies to decarbonize their economies with a much more efficient oil and gas production from an environmental point of view."

Any offshore production likely will be for export, given that Argentina is already running a surplus on its mostly onshore output coupled with some offshore crude output in the far south. This combined is more than the average domestic consumption of 450,000 b/d to 510,000 b/d.

The development of Argentina's offshore acreage "could generate a profound change in the country, transforming it into an energy exporting country to the world," Gonzalez said.

CAN 100 is one of the first projects to get underway since a 2019 offshore licensing round attracted a total $720 million in exploration investment by a host of companies including YPF, Equinor and Shell, as well as ExxonMobil, France's TotalEnergies and UK-based BP.

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Argentina's YPF expects new offshore project to produce up to 200000 b/d oil - S&P Global

The Chinese national flag flies at half-mast at the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), as China holds a national mourning for those who died of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), on the Qingming tomb-sweeping festival in Beijing, China April 4, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

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SHANGHAI, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Investment inflows into Chinese government bonds (CGBs) pushed offshore holdings of the instruments to record highs in 2021, but at a slower pace as diverging monetary policy between China and the United States ate away at Chinese bonds' yield premiums.

CGB holdings by offshore investors stood at a record 2.45 trillion yuan ($384.51 billion) at the end of December, according to data released Monday evening by China Central Depository and Clearing Co (CCDC), the main depository institution for China's interbank bond market.

That was up 30.7% from a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations of the data, slower than a 43.7% increase logged in 2020.

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Holdings of quasi-sovereign bonds issued by China's policy banks rose 1% on the month to a record 1.08 trillion yuan. That was up 18% from a year earlier, compared with an 84.4% jump in 2020.

The slower rise reflected a narrowing spread between Chinese and U.S. yields, with the 10-year yield gap falling nearly 100 basis points to 124.52 basis points by the end of December. The drop nearly reversed the move in 2020, when foreign holdings of CGBs rose at their fastest annual pace on record.

Standard Chartered analysts Becky Liu and Jeffrey Zhang said that they expect Chinese rates to continue to fall in the first quarter of 2022 on more policy easing, slow growth and weak issuance, but that they could rise on higher supply and stabilising growth in subsequent quarters.

"(The year) 2022 will see a rare divergence of monetary policy between China and most DM economies ... We see a risk of more material monetary policy easing in H1, including more broad-based reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, in addition to targeted measures through re-lending and re-discounting facilities," they said in a note.

Nevertheless, "foreign inflows may rise steadily to CNY700-800bn, on relatively high carry and likely better return," they said.

Additional interbank market holdings data from Shanghai Clearing House was not yet available on Tuesday.

($1 = 6.3718 Chinese yuan)

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Reporting by Andrew GalbraithEditing by Shri Navaratnam

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Offshore investments in Chinese govt bonds slowed in 2021 on diverging policy - Reuters

Star of the South, Australias first offshore wind project, has posted three job vacancies looking for Head of Approvals, Senior Land Advisor, and Compliance Officer.

The projects Head of Approvals will manage the approvals team, strategy and project budget for this area. Senior Land Advisor will work with landholders and other stakeholders during the land assembly process for the project, while Compliance Officer will take ownership of compliance activities and work across multiple internal teams to drive compliance monitoring, reporting and project coordination.

Located off Gippslands south coast, in the Bass Strait, Star of the South is planned to comprise up to 200 turbines and to connect to the grid in the Latrobe Valley.

If built to its full capacity, the project would generate up to 2.2 GW of clean energy, providing around 20 per cent of Victorias energy needs.

Investigations at sea commenced in 2019 when two floating LiDARs and a wave buoy weredeployedat the project site, after the project was granted an Exploration Licence from the Commonwealth Government. The project is in the feasibility phase with environmental assessments currently underway to support planning and approvals.

If Star of the South is approved and proceeds to construction, the project could start construction as early as 2025 with full power toward the end of the decade.

The project is jointly owned by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners and Australian Founders Terry Kallis, Andy Evans and Peter Sgardelis.

Originally posted here:

Australia's First Offshore Wind Project Starts Recruiting - Offshore WIND

Norwegian offshore installation contractor Havfram has appointed Emilie Reeve to lead Havframs offshore wind farm development division, Havkraft.

Havfram, formerly known as Ocean Installer, in 2020 committed to a transition from being purely an oil and gas services firm to also becoming an offshore wind company.

"Appointing Emilie Reeve to lead the offshore wind farm development activity is another step towards achieving the transition," the company said Monday.

"In her new role Emilie will lead Havframs new offshore wind farm development division, Havkraft, with the aim of becoming a leading offshore wind farm developer. Havframs expansion into offshore wind farm development, through Havkraft, complements its existing business in offshore wind EPC and installation services, providing a complete offering across the full offshore wind lifecycle. Havframs offshore wind development division will be led from the companys new London location, adding another site to its global presence," Havfram said.

"I am very excited about this key appointment for our company, further strengthening our team and demonstrating our commitment to the ongoing global transition from oil and gas to renewable energy, says Odd Strmsnes, CEO in Havfram. Emilies capabilities and experience across the offshore wind sector are of great relevance to our wind development ambitions, where she will lead our continued expansion and ambitious growth plans.

Havfram says that Reeve brings with her a wealth of experience in the global offshore wind market, having advised various government ministries, offshore wind developers and development banks on how to enter, develop and accelerate existing and emerging offshore wind markets, notably, UK Round 4 and Japan Round 1.

Previously holding roles as Manager of offshore renewable energy for the Carbon Trust and the Board of Directors of the US National Offshore Wind Research & Development Consortium, Emilie joins Havfram from her most recent role as Director & EMEA Business Development Lead & Strategy Lead at the Renewables Consulting Group.

"From a position as a globally recognized offshore subsea installation company, Havfram is already making headway in the offshore wind industry. I am excited to join the ambitious Havfram team and am committed to growing Havframs offshore wind development capabilities, and delivering on its ambitions to become a leading player in the offshore wind market says Emilie Reeve.

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Havfram Appoints Offshore Wind Development Head - Offshore Engineer

Offshore staff

HVIK, Norway The Korean Energy Agency has appointed DNV to provide type certification services for the South Korean wind energy sector.

This will allow manufacturers worldwide to achieve certification for their wind turbines in the sector, in line with South Korean standards and the international certification scheme IEC.

According to the Global Wind Energy Council, the country is targeting 9.2 GW of wind power by 2025 and 16 GW by 2030, of which 12 GW will be offshore wind.

Recently the government revealed plans to build what could be the worlds largest offshore wind power plant, with a power output of 8.2 GW.

Brice Le Gallo, Regional Director for Asia Pacific at DNV, said:As wind parks will increasingly be erected offshore, in greater water depths, harsh climates and remote locations, we observe that wind farm developers are also increasingly insisting on certification as a key risk mitigation measure in the technical due diligence process.

Currently DNV has over 300 specialists in five cities in South Korea providing assurance, classification and risk management services to customers for the energy, oil and gas, offshore and maritime and other industries.

01/10/2022

Read more:

DNV cleared to certify offshore Korea wind turbines - Offshore Oil and Gas Magazine

Moscow has sent troops to over a dozen countries with varying reasons since Vladimir Putin came to power just before the turn of the millennium.

Russias troop deployment to Kazakhstan after a series of violent protests that threatened the rule of Kazakh President Qasym Zhomart Tokayev has put a spotlight on Moscows military interventions around the globe.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, a Russian-led military bloc, announced last week that Russian paratroopers have been deployed to Kazakhstan as part of a "peacekeeping force" that includes troops from four other former Soviet republics.

The forces totalled around 2,500 people, the secretariat of the bloc said, adding that the deployment comes in response to an appeal from President Tokayev to help stabilise the Central Asian country in the wake of terror attacks and mass protests sparked by a fuel price rise.

In recent years, the Russian Armed Forces have repeatedly participated in conflicts in the territories of both the former Soviet republics and in far-abroad countries, including Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Mali, Madagascar, Venezuela and Egypt.

Here we take a closer look at the five main military interventions undertaken by Russia.

Ukraine

The Euromaidan protest movement began in the Ukrainian capital Kiev in late 2013 after the government suspended the signing of an association agreement with the European Union.

The protests' scope soon widened and led to the Revolution of Dignity, also known as the Maidan revolution, that culminated in the ousting of elected president Viktor Yanukovych, and the overthrow the Ukrainian government.

In early February in 2014, masked Russian troops without insignia took over the Supreme Council of Crimea and captured strategic sites across the peninsula. A pro-Russian government came in power and it conducted the Crimean status referendum, declaring Crimea's independence on 16 March 2014.

Moscow has annexed Crimea and Kiev forces are locked in conflict with separatists supported by Russia in the east of Ukraine. The fighting there has cost some 13,000 lives so far.

The move that hasn't been recognised by most of the world's nations and that triggered Western sanctions against Moscow.

Russia currently has about 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials, amid Western fears that Moscow is preparing to invade Ukraine.

Syria

In March 2011, the Syrian regime faced an unprecedented challenge to its authority when pro-democracy protests erupted throughout the country.

Protesters demanded an end to the authoritarian practices of the Assad regime. But, the regime used violence to suppress demonstrations.

Opposition groups began to form in 2011, and by 2012 the conflict had expanded into a full-fledged civil war.

Russias military intervention in Syria began in September 2015 after a request by the regime for military aid against rebel groups.

Moscow deployed troops and military equipment to an air base near Latakia. Since then it has carried out air strikes targeting opposition groups.

The Russian government announced its troops would be deployed to Syria permanently at the end of December 2017.

Russia's entry into the Syrian conflict changed the political equation in the country with its direct intervention in support of Bashar al Assad. It facilitated his regimes takeover of most of the Syrian territory.

It is estimated that there are 4,000 to 5,000 Russian troops in Syria.

Azerbaijan

Relations between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory, and seven adjacent regions.

New clashes erupted on September 27, 2020 after the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces.

During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages from the nearly three-decade-long occupation.

According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, despite the November 10 deal ending the conflict, the Armenian army killed several Azerbaijani soldiers.

As part of the peace agreement brokered by the Kremlin, Russia has deployed a peacekeeping force to parts of Nagorno-Karabakh for an initial five years. This force comprised around 2,000-3,000 troops, a military presence in Karabakh is something the Kremlin has wanted since the early 1990s.

Georgia

Russias military presence in Georgia dates back to the final years of the Soviet Union, when resentments between Georgians and the Abkhazians and South Ossetians escalated into open violence.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared their independence from Georgia in early 1990s. Russia had a leading role in the precarious ceasefire with the breakaway regions in 1992, which legitimised the Russian troops presence there.

The tensions turned to a brief war between Russia and Georgia in 2008.

Georgia attempted to recapture South Ossetia. Russia replied pouring troops in, ousting Georgian forces from South Ossetia and breakaway Abkhazia. Moscow recognises both as independent states. And there are now between 6,000 to 10,000 Russian troops in both regions.

Libya

Libya has been mired in conflict since the 2011 Arab uprisings and the subsequent overthrow of leader Muammar Gaddafi, leaving the country with two main rival governments.

The Government of National Accord (GNA), is based in Tripoli and was formed as part of a UN-brokered process laid out in the 2015 Libyan Political Process.

The Tobruk-based House of Representatives was formed after 2014 elections and is led by the warlord of the self-styled Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar.

Russia has been engaging in Libyan politics by supporting Haftar, supplying him with mercenaries and weaponry.

Russia's largest military contractor Wagner Group has been sending mercenaries to help Haftars forces in Benghazi. Wegner is also supporting the LNA with tanks, artillery, drones, and ammunition.

Russian support to Haftar is not only restricted to Wagner, there are hundreds of other mercenaries in eastern Libya taking part in LNAs operations.

More than 7,000 Russian Wagner mercenaries are still operating in Libya, according to Khalid al Mishri, the head of the countrys High Council of State.

Source: TRT World

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Russias five major offshore military deployments in Putin era - TRT World

For several years, efforts to establish offshore aquaculture in US waters has been stalled in Congress. But the new campaign manager for the offshore advocacy effort known as Stronger America Through Seafood (SATS) believes there is ample opportunity to move the needle at the federal level this year.

In November, the fisheries and aquaculture arm of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) identified nine areas in the Gulf of Mexico and 10 areas in the Southern California Bight that may be suitable for offshore aquaculture.

The so-called "Aquaculture Opportunity Areas" are part of former President Trump's executive order designed to streamline fisheries regulations and further the development of offshore aquaculture.

"It's the most comprehensive collection of data that has ever existed in the history of NOAA," Brenholt said of that particular work on offshore aquaculture.

The introduction of the Advancing the Quality and Understanding of American Aquaculture (AQUAA) Act in both the US House and Senate ahead of 2022 has also positioned that bill to make potential legislative gains, she added.

"The circumstances are all right for us to move the ball forward," she said.

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Brenholt told IntraFish her goal this year with SATS is to engage with more environmental organizations about creating an offshore aquaculture industry in the United States.

SATS has been having ongoing conversations over the years, specifically with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) as well as the Nature Conservancy and Monterey Bay Aquarium, she said.

"Where do we all agree on aquaculture? What science do we have? It's been those types of conversations we want to continue into 2022," she said.

Brenholt for several years has been in the background working on campaigns for SATS, serving as its policy consultant since 2017. Last year she took over the campaign from longtime seafood lobbyist Margaret Henderson.

Continued here:

Is 2022 the year US offshore aquaculture finally gains traction? - IntraFish

Offshore wind power needs energy storage and power regulation, and Ocean Grazer has invented an offshore energy storage system that will sit at the bottom of the sea and manage the flow of electricity through the power grid. The Dutch startup showcased their new product, Ocean Battery, at CES in Las Vegas last week.

UnderstandSolar is a free service that links you to top-rated solar installers in your region for personalized solar estimates. Tesla now offers price matching, so its important to shop for the best quotes.Click here to learn more and get your quotes. *ad.

Ocean Grazer, a spin-off of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, asserts that Ocean Battery is almost maintenance-free and even enhances marine life.

Ocean Battery is an energy storage system that is installed in the seabed and paired with offshore wind farms. It does not require rare earth materials and uses clean water as the energy carrier.

The Ocean Battery allows utilities to transform offshore wind farms into dispatchable power generators using hydro dam technology. It can reduce local peak loads in the network and match supply and demand.

Ocean Grazer explains how it works:

Ocean Battery is based on hydro dam technology that can be deployed at the source ofpower generation. Excess wind power is routed toward the Ocean Battery that pumps waterfrom its underground reservoirs into the flexible bladders installed at the seabed. Wheneverthere is a demand for power, water is routed through hydro turbines to generate electricityback into the underground reservoirs.

Check it out in this video:

Ocean Grazer claims that Ocean Battery has an efficiency of around 80% and that it should be able to run unlimited cycles for more than 20 years. The company, which announced on January 6 that it has closed a deal with an angel investor,will deploy an onshore Ocean Battery in the Netherlands by 2023 and aims to have an offshore system in place by 2025.

This is very new. Its also clever. So will it be widely rolled out and adopted? We dont yet know, but we hope it is.

We also dont scoff at new inventions wed rather discover and learn about them. People laughed at Thomas Edison and his lightbulb.

Clean energy needs as much innovation as it can get, and well keep an eye on Ocean Grazers development.

Read more: The worlds largest wind farm will power up before end of 2021

Photo: Ocean Grazer

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Will this ocean battery buried in the seabed be an offshore wind game changer? - Electrek.co

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A guest post by Bob Meltz

I'll start with a brief overview of some northern offshore GOM production statistics, and then review what I see as the current state of Wilcox exploration and development projects and finish by discussing Wilcox production data. All production statistics are from BSEE/BOEM.

Cumulative production from the federal waters of the offshore Northern Gulf of Mexico (OCS) through 2020 is 22.7 BB (billion barrels) oil and 190 tcf gas. The first production was in 1947. Production from deepwater (defined by BOEM as water depths > 1000') is 9.6 BB oil and 22.9 tcf gas. The first deepwater production was in 1979 from Shell's Cognac platform in 1025' of water.

The current annual peak in offshore oil production was in 2019. The average production was 1.9 mmbopd. 2020 production averaged about 1.64 mmbopd. So far from 2021 through October average oil production has been about 1.67. With the near term queue of Miocene projects set to come online in 2022 (Mad Dog 2, King's Quay, and Vito), and the queue of Wilcox projects set to come online in 2024-2025 (Anchor, Whale, and perhaps North Platte), I believe we will see another peak in production in 2 to 6 years, and this could even exceed the 2019 peak.

The Wilcox, sometimes also called the Lower Tertiary, was thought by many to be the future hope for the offshore Gulf of Mexico, providing long-term production for years. As the shelf and flex trends played out, and as the deepwater Miocene fields started playing out, the Wilcox was going to pick up the slack and keep offshore production going.

I co-authored a paper with several Chevron colleagues in 2005 that led to some of this initial enthusiasm. Here is a link to that paper.

View PDF (searchanddiscovery.com)

The article indicates potential from the play of 3 to 15 billion barrels of recoverable oil. The high-end estimate of 15 billion barrels of recoverable oil generated a lot of industry buzz at the time, but I'm glad we also included the low estimate of 3 billion barrels. As you will see later, I currently believe the ultimate recovery from Wilcox will be closer to that low estimate.

The oil industry has faced many challenges in pursuing Wilcox. Some include the technical challenges of drilling and completing these wells. In many cases, they are drilled through thick salt canopies onto total depths exceeding 30,000'. They are some of the deepest wells in the world, and often the top of the reservoirs are encountered below 25,000'. The deepest well in the GOM was a Wilcox test drilled by Chevron in 2013 to 35,935' TVD_SS. Usually, the Wilcox reservoirs are quite thick, often over 1000' of gross reservoir thickness and over 500' of net oil pay. Successfully drilling and completing these wells is not for the faint of heart.

So, after 20 or so years of exploration and 11 years of production, how has Wilcox been performing?

First I'll discuss the exploration story of the Wilcox.

Below is a simplified stratigraphic column showing the primary producing intervals of the offshore Gulf of Mexico.

Figure 1 - Simplified stratigraphic column for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Historically, the Wilcox has been a prolific gas-producing interval onshore Texas and Louisiana. It wasn't thought to be prospective in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico until the BAHA #2 well was drilled in 2001 in the outboard-of-salt portion of the Perdido Fold Belt. This well, classified as a dry hole, demonstrated both a working petroleum system (it did encounter 15' of oil pay) and, surprisingly, thick Wilcox sands. This was followed in Perdido Fold Belt by the Trident discovery in 2001, and the Great White discovery in 2002.

Meanwhile, the initial test of the Wilcox section in the deepwater Central GOM was made by BHP at Cascade (2002). Interestingly, this well was not initially intended as a Wilcox test, but when the shallower Miocene section came in wet and very poorly developed, they deepened the well to test the Wilcox. The significance of this well is that it demonstrated both a working petroleum system in this portion of the GOM (the well was an oil discovery), and the existence of Wilcox sands over 200 miles east of those being found in the Perdido wells. That started to open up the potential for the Wilcox over the entire deepwater GOM. Subsequent discoveries included Chevron's Jack and St. Malo.

A very good recent assessment of Wilcox exploration results can be found on pages 82-86 in the following BOEM document.

Deepwater-Gulf-of-Mexico-Report-2019.pdf (boem.gov)

BOEM sites 21 discoveries out of 72 exploration tests, for a commercial success rate of 29%. 24 of the wells found non-commercial oil. (If the lease in which the well is drilled is still held by the operator, it is considered a commercial success. If the lease has been dropped, it is considered a non-commercial success. Of course, in both cases, at least some oil has to be encountered.)

The maps below from this document show the distribution of Wilcox exploration wells in the deepwater GOM. Producing assets are highlighted in green, and discoveries in red. (At least 3 discoveries are not included on the map or their statistics: 2 in the Perdido Fold Belt area to the west of Figure 2 to be briefly discussed later - Leopard, a few blocks south of the word Brontosaurus and Blacktip North, just north of Blacktip; and Constellation, a producing asset in Fig. 3. -a bit north of Turtle Lake.)

Figure 2 - West half of Figure 61 on page 86 of BOEM document referenced above, showing the distribution of Wilcox exploration wells in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Lease blocks are 33 miles. The underlying map is a rendering of bathymetry.

Figure 3 - East half of Figure 61 on page 86 of BOEM document referenced above, showing the distribution of Wilcox exploration wells in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

One of the biggest challenges presented by Wilcox is how to handle discovery. After drilling an exploration well where you have encountered oil, it isn't always apparent that you've drilled a commercial discovery. Most of these Wilcox wells are subsalt where seismic data can be difficult to interpret, and your ability to determine how extensive an oil accumulation is can be quite challenging. As a result, no final Wilcox development decisions are made based on the results of the first exploration well (unless you decide to walk away from the project). An appraisal is a very big deal, and sometimes appraisal well results are disappointing, and the operator decides to not pursue development, and drop the leases. This results in a non-commercial oil well.

If the appraisal results are successful, and this could include multiple appraisal wells, the operator will often have enough confidence that they will be able to produce economic volumes of oil and will sanction the project, sometimes called FID or Final Investment Decision. The development may involve the fabrication of a new facility, a commitment to drill additional development wells, and installation of all of the subsea facilities to bring the oil and gas to market (it's different if you decide on an FPSO where the oil is stored on the facility, and then offloaded to a tanker). Project costs can vary from as little as a few hundreds of millions of dollars (for a small well tieback to an existing facility) to multiple billion-dollar projects.

Recently, the Perdido Fold Belt area (located on the west half of Figure 2) has been a focus of exploration. A number of significant discoveries have been made by Shell and partners in the subsalt to a mostly subsalt portion of the Perdido Fold Belt in the Alaminos Canyon protraction area. These include Whale (2018), Black Tip (2019), Leopard (2021), and Black Tip North (2021).

The lease map below, Figure 4, courtesy of Shell with a few of my edits, shows the locations of these recent discoveries. It also shows the location of the Perdido host production facility. Note the proximity to the U.S. / Mexico international boundary. At one time there were rumblings that the Mexican government was convinced Shell would be draining oil reserves that extended into Mexican waters. This is definitely not the case. These are bright spot-associated reservoirs that are very well imaged on seismic, and the bright spots clearly stay in US waters, and abundant well control confirms this.

Below is a link to a 2007 article about this.

As Deepwater Drilling Booms, Mexico's Oil Could Leak to U.S. | Rigzone

The Perdido fold belt extends south into Mexican waters. The trend has been moderately explored in Mexican waters with BHP's Trion discovery being the most significant and one that is very likely to be developed. The Trion discovery was made in 2012 and the first oil is expected in 2026 and non-op partner Pemex's estimate of the gross estimated recoverable resource is 485 mmboe.

Figure 4 - Lease map of the Perdido Fold Belt area showing key Shell leases and recent discoveries. The map is courtesy of Shell with a few edits. The underlying map is a rendering of bathymetry.

Next, the production side: The first Wilcox production occurred in 2010 when Shell brought the Perdido project online, (see the location of Perdido Host in Fig 4). At the time it came online, it was producing from the deepest water in the world, with the Perdido host facility in 7835' of water. The main producing reservoirs at Great White are at about 17,000', about 9000' below the mud line. The Great White Wilcox is unusual in that it has quite favorable rock properties because it is fairly shallow - porosities in the low 20% range, and permeabilities in the 100 mD range or so. This differentiates it from the other producing fields where the Wilcox is deeper, porosities are in the 10-20% range and permeabilities are in the 10s of mDs. It is also outboard of salt and, consequently, doesn't suffer from the seismic data quality issues seen in the subsalt areas.

Soon after, in 2012, Petrobras brought on Cascade and Chinook in Walker Ridge. They are located in the eastern portion of Figure 3 above. These fields are producing to a centrally located FPSO, the first of its kind in the GOM.

There are currently 9 fields producing from the Wilcox. The chart below shows annual production from these fields through 2020 compared to total GOM oil production. To date, peak Wilcox production was 304 kbopd in 2019. This was 16% of total GOM production in 2019. Total GOM production was down slightly in 2020 because of Covid, while the Wilcox contribution increased to 17%.

Figure 5 - Annual Gulf of Mexico oil production with Wilcox breakout

Cumulative Wilcox production through 2020 is 614 mmbo, with the per field breakout in table 1. BOEM's latest reserve updates are through 2019, so I just subtracted each field's 2020 production from BOEM's 2019 reserves to get an estimate of remaining reserves at the end of 2020.

(I've included a column showing cumulative gas production for these fields through 2020. With the exception of Great White, these are all low GOR oils.)

Table 1 - Key information on the current Gulf of Mexico deepwater fields producing from the Wilcox.

Chinook stands out as having negative reserves at the end of 2020, meaning Murphy (the current operator) produced more oil in 2020 than BOEM's reserves were at the end of 2019, and it has produced more than 2 mmbo through 9 months in 2021. So you can at least change that -4 to a +2.

Then it starts getting to be a question of what the most likely total recovery will be from these fields, or, how much additional recovery will these fields achieve beyond the sum of current cumulative production and my estimate of BOEM's reserves at the end of 2020. I'm going to go with an estimate of 1.6 +/- .3 BBO as the EUR range for these fields. That captures the current cum plus reserves of 1.3 BBO (614 + 677 = 1.291 =~ 1.3 BBO) on the downside and allows for a fair bit of upside. 2 things that I can see leading to that upside are further developments at Great White and Buckskin and there certainly could be others.

Buckskin is an interesting case study. Chevron (CVX) and partners drilled the discovery in 2008 and followed it up with some appraisal drilling. After not seeing a clear path to economic development, LLOG acquired Chevron's interest, drilled and completed 2 development wells, and brought the project online as a tieback to Anadarko's nearby Lucius platform in 2019. Buckskin is in the southwest portion of Figure 3.

The queue for near-term future developments is quite attractive. They are shown below in Table 2. These are all projects that have either FIDed or where the operator has shown a very strong commitment to FID. Note that 3 of them will be 20 k projects - meaning the drilling and production equipment needs to be able to handle the ultra-high pressures (up to 20,000 psi) associated with these Wilcox reservoirs.

Table 2 - Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Wilcox projects that have been FIDed, or are very likely to FID within the next year or so.

The Shenandoah development has a somewhat similar history to Buckskin. Anadarko and others drilled numerous wells at Shenandoah and nearby prospects, with the first discovery drilled in 2009, but were never able to come up with a path to economic development. The project languished, but Beacon has come in and is planning a phased development approach. Shenandoah and offsets, Yucatan, Coronado, and Monument, are in the central part of Figure 3.

There also are a number of projects that are likely to be developed but have not been FIDed and are, therefore, a little further out in the future. They include 3 of the recent Shell discoveries in the Perdido Fold Belt area - Blacktip and Blacktip North and Leopard. Another project is a potential co-development of Leon and Moccasin (Leon is in the southeast portion of Figure 3 and Moccasin is to its east. The Moccasin label is cut off by the edge of the map.)

It's harder to put a reserve range on these because of a lack of information from operators, but, when that's the case, I find that the best practice is to make the range-wide. So, I'm going to put the range from .7 +/- .4 BBO.

What about undiscovered prospects? It's my view that exploration for the Wilcox is fairly mature in the GOM, so I put this range at .5 BBO +/- .5 BBO. (A high side estimate of only 1 BBO may be too conservative?) The chart below, Figure 6, from the BOEM report referenced earlier, shows how the number Wilcox exploration wells have been steadily decreasing over the last 8 years or so. This, to me, speaks to the overall maturity of the basin. Some, though, may disagree and say this is related to low oil prices.

Figure 6 - Number of deepwater Wilcox (Lower Tertiary) exploration wells since 1996. From BOEM document referenced above. No wells were drilled in 2010 because of the BP oil spill.

One source of prospects could be for operators to revisit some of the remaining discoveries that have been made but don't appear to be on a path to development. A good example here is the Guadalupe-Tiber area in the middle of Figure 2. I could see this area getting revisited in a similar way that Beacon is moving ahead in the Shenandoah area.

Table 3 below is my EUR ranges for all of these projects, broken out by status, in mmbo.

Table 3 - EUR ranges for Wilcox projects of varying status in the GOM.

So, after 20 years of exploration, and 11 years of production, my EUR range for the Wilcox is between 2.6 and 5.5 BBO, with a most likely EUR of about 4 BBO, pretty close to our low-end estimate of 3 BBO from 2005.

You might ask how did we ever get to that upside estimate of 15 billion barrels of recoverable oil? At that time, only 13 exploration wells had been drilled, and 9 were classified as discoveries, and about 12 BBO of original oil in place had been discovered. That results in a discovery rate of 9/13 = 69%. If you assume a similar success rate for future Wilcox wells and assume a total of 65 prospects, that results in 45 discoveries. If you also assume a similar OOIP per future discovery as existing discoveries, the total OOIP goes to 60 BBO. (I'm just multiplying things by 5.) Then, if you assume 25% recovery, you get 15 BBO. The biggest "miss" here is the recovery factor. Because of the low perm nature of most of the Wilcox reservoirs, 25% recovery is very unlikely. 10-15% recoveries are probably closer to what operators are going to achieve. Great White is an exception to this because the main reservoir is shallower than others and has better rock properties. In fact, a fairly successful waterflood is being done in this reservoir and the expected recovery factor could be 40-50% of OOIP.

Another "miss" is around the number of discoveries that have ended up being non-commercial, and unlikely to get developed.

Interestingly and in conclusion, using the BOEM data mentioned earlier plus the 3 additional discoveries that I mentioned, you get 75 total exploration wells, 24 discoveries, and 24 wells with non-commercial oil. 48 out of 75 wells found oil, resulting in a discovery rate of 64%, not too far from the early discovery rate of 69%. The commercial discovery rate, though, is 24/75 = 32%. As mentioned earlier, it is these wells that end up being non-commercial discoveries that can become real appraisal challenges. (Actually, even some of the commercial discoveries end up being appraisal challenges, but I will leave it there.)

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Update On The Wilcox In The Offshore Northern Gulf Of Mexico - Seeking Alpha