Daily Archives: November 25, 2021

Dr. Eoin Drea is senior research officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.

It remains remarkable that for such a seismic event, Brexit continues to be most noticeable by its absence in the formulation of future European Union strategy. From the Conference on the Future of Europe to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyens state of the union address, Brexit, Britain and the future of the Anglo-EU relationship struggle to elicit a single reference or positive soundbite.

This in itself is a remarkable achievement given Britains unique role in the EU landscape. A European economic giant and a 47-year veteran of (mostly positive) EU policymaking is now deemed less relevant than Brussels unspecified vision for connected Global Gateway.

It is almost as if as in many a Parisians dreams Britain never really existed at all.

Alas, as the first anniversary of Brexit approaches, its clear that the EU has learned every wrong lesson from the divorce. Riled by the deliberately provocative actions of successive British governments since 2016, the EU has been unable to separate the U.K.s bark from its bite and the danger this poses is swiftly growing.

Consider how the EUs current approach to discussing Britain is based entirely on a strategy of moving past Brexit.

This is an approach that has been strengthened by the pandemic, which has allowed the EU to subsume Brexit within a broader reimagining of a more relevant, more assertive, more global union.

Europe, in its own mind, has bigger fish to fry.

But while moving past Brexit may make the EU feel better about being jilted by one of its biggest members, it is a woefully short-sighted approach to understanding Brexits potential consequences for its own long-term development.

Another weakness in the EUs approach to understanding Brexit is that it has obsessively focused on Brexiteer misrepresentations of Europe.

This its not me, its you approach has constructed a narrative that views Brexit as a wholly disfigured British issue. Feeding into lazy tropes of British detachment, this blueprint has trapped the EU in easy tales of British exceptionalism.

No real attempt has been made to place the U.K.s engagement in Europe in the specific context of the European integration process. Brexit was never just a wholly British affair. It was also shaped by the strategic choices made in Brussels over several decades.

The final EU miscalculation when it comes to Britain may be its most damaging. Brussels is continuing to underestimate the U.Ks strategic importance and refusing to acknowledge or even contemplate the political risks of an even mildly successful Britain.

The EUs focus on the grinding technical details of protecting the single market due to Britains annoying but highly effective diversionary focus on Northern Ireland has resulted in Brussels misjudging the medium-term risks of Britain as a strategic competitor.

But that risk is real.

The coming years will bring a stabilization of Britains internal politics and a refocusing of the countrys economic priorities in areas where it has existing strengths. Finance, education, security and defense, Fintech and AI are just some of those areas that could lead to a stable, and relatively dynamic, economic framework for the country.

And for all the talk of the economic costs of Brexit and COVID-19, Britains economic outlook in terms of public debt, economic growth and unemployment remain considerably better than most other major European economies, with the exception of Germany.

Britain isnt Italy, no matter how much the EU might wish it so.

Britains return to growth will be complemented by London doubling down on its strategic partnerships with the United States and the other English-speaking economies of the Anglosphere.

Although completely derided in the EU, Britains relationship with the U.S. remains the underpinning of its post-EU identity. This is a relationship whose strategic importance has been masked by Brusselss perceptions of British weakness.

For Westminster, it is irrelevant whether Britain is viewed as Washingtons most important partner Londons preferred choice or as a vassal of the U.S., in the words of Clment Beaune, Frances minister of state for European affairs.

Even subjugation brings the benefits of proximity, relevance and inclusion in Washingtons wider geopolitical strategies. These are benefits lacking in other EU member countries relationships with the Anglosphere, as evidenced by the recent controversy over Australian submarines and the AUKUS defense pact.

Its clear that the EU needs to adopt a new strategy toward Britain. All the hard talk in Schuman coffee shops in Brussels of punishing or going hard on Britain if the Northern Ireland Protocols Article 16 is invoked is ridiculous. Europe missed its chance to impose its economic power on Westminster during the Brexit negotiations.

What recent British actions have really shown is that beyond the political theatrics, Prime Minister Boris Johnsons plan is simply to keep the Brexit fires burning at home through a constant feed of mutual Anglo-EU antagonism. An EU overreaction to British goading is the ultimate aim.

So, rather than succumbing to every little British provocation, Europe needs to take the long view and claim the high ground. Brussels should shrug off British threats with a smile, talk the language of strategic partnership through gritted teeth and understand that Brexit doesnt start and end with the Irish border and angry French fishermen.

Theres a much bigger game at play.

Because Britain wont always be a political disaster. Soon it will be a serious economic threat.

See the original post here:

Europe has learned nothing from Brexit - POLITICO.eu

British Border Force staff lead a migrant mother with her child on her back into Dover harbour, in Dover, Britain, June 6, 2021. REUTERS/Paul Childs

Register

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Net immigration to Britain fell by almost 90% last year to its lowest level since 1993 due to the impact of COVID-19 and Brexit, official figures showed on Thursday.

The Office for National Statistics released a first provisional estimate showing that 34,000 more people moved to Britain last year than emigrated, down from 271,000 in 2019.

"Immigration was much lower in 2020 than in previous years, likely caused by a combination of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit," the ONS said.

Register

Concern about unrestricted immigration from the European Union - which exceeded 200,000 on a net basis in 2015 - was a major feature of 2016's Brexit referendum. More recently, businesses have complained of labour shortages due to a lack of immigrants.

Britain left the European Union at the end of January 2020 - although EU citizens kept the right to move to Britain until the end of the year - but COVID caused foreign travel to grind to a halt from late March 2020.

The pandemic also severely hampered the ONS's ability to collect migration data as it stopped its traditional practice of surveying passengers at airports and ports.

The provisional data is based on experimental statistical modelling and is likely to be revised, with plausible estimates for 2020 ranging from net immigration of 125,000 to net emigration of 58,000, the ONS said.

Looking at non-British EU nationals alone, there was a net emigration of around 94,000, the ONS estimated.

Unlike most European countries, Britain does not have a system of identity cards or compulsory registration for residents that would make it easy to check migration flows.

"Although there is no evidence of an exodus from the UK in 2020, global travel restrictions meant the movement of people was limited, with all data sources suggesting migration fell to the lowest level seen for many years," ONS statistician Jay Lindop said.

Register

Reporting by David Milliken; editing by Guy Faulconbridge

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

View post:

Immigration to UK slumped in 2020 due to COVID and Brexit - Reuters

The UK is in the dark about new post-Brexit biometric border checks threatening chaos for holidaymakers visiting the EU, the government has admitted.

Transport chiefs have raised the alarm over long queues when the entry/exit system (EES) requiring data to be collected at the border for all non-EU arrivals is introduced next year.

Quizzed by worried MPs, the Cabinet Office acknowledged it did not know how the checks will be implemented as the number of cross-Channel tourists is expected to bounce back after Covid.

Asked what it would mean for car or coach passengers, Emma Churchill, the director general of the border delivery group, said the French government had yet to disclose its plans.

So I cant tell you exactly how the French intend to implement the entry and exit system, she told the Commons public accounts committee.

The hope was that the checks could be brought in without starting to cause those queues backing up, Ms Churchill added.

Meg Hillier, the committee chair, called it a big concern, while a Conservative, Richard Holden, urged the government to work to avoid disruption.

Whats really worrying me is you have got potential Covid checks and biometric passport checks will come in at some point, he told a panel of Whitehall top civil servants.

The checks are expected be particularly difficult at the juxtaposed controls with France which are on the UK side of the Channel but will be introduced across the 26-nation Schengen Area.

Unlike the looming Etias visa-waiver program similar to the ESTA required for travel to the US they cannot be carried out in advance, at the booking stage.

The entry/exit system was developed while the UK was an EU member, but will now have implications for travellers from this country because of Brexit.

The inquiry asking four government departments about the impact of Brexit border measures saw all express confidence that the imposition of import controls, from January, will go smoothly.

Jim Harra, the chief executive of Revenue and Customs, admitted the significant costs businesses must pay to trade with the EU despite the Leave campaign repeatedly insisting Brexit would cut red tape.

Theres no doubt that its part of the cost of leaving a customs union, that you have to bear that burden, he said, insisting the government had been transparent about that.

Asked about small firms, struggling to pay hefty custom agent fees, Mr Harra replied: Can I say that, in 3 years time, a small business will find it easy to self-serve customs I think that will be challenging.

Alex Chisholm, permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office, argued it is too early to disentangle the effects of Covid and Brexit on trade despite the National Audit Office concluding leaving the EU swiped 17bn from exports in just three months.

Here is the original post:

Brexit: UK in the dark about risk of queues from new EU border checks, government admits - The Independent

The new German government has fired a warning shot at Boris Johnson to expect retaliation if he breaks the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland.

The warning came as Mr Johnson restated his readiness to suspend the deal by invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, in a phone call with Irish counterpart Micheal Martin.

A three-way German coalition agreement installing Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats as Angela Merkels replacement backs countermeasures if the UK fails to abide by its obligations.

It commits Berlin to a common European policy towards the United Kingdom and to seek close bilateral cooperation within this framework.

But it adds: We insist on full compliance with the agreements that have been concluded, in particular with regard to the Northern Ireland Protocol and the Good Friday Agreement.

In the event of non-compliance with the agreed standards and procedures, we are committed to the consistent application of all agreed measures and countermeasures.

The strong stance comes after the UK backed away from an early suspension of Article 16 of the Protocol apparently because a weakened Johnson is not ready for a damaging trade war with the EU.

Brussels hailed a welcome change of tone in ongoing talks, as both sides agreed to focus on medicines and customs red tape, not the flashpoint issue of the role of the European Court of Justice.

However, the Brexit minister David Frost has insisted the triggering of Article 16 remains on the table if talks run into the sand rejecting an EU compromise move to reduce Irish Sea border checks.

In a further sign of cross-Channel tensions, the French foreign minister launched a fierce attack on Mr Johnson, amid the separate clash over post-Brexit fishing rights.

The prime minister is a populist who uses all elements at his disposal to blame others for problems he faces internally, Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

The comments came as Lord Frost addressed the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, repeating his threat to trigger Article 16 if necessary but saying he was hopeful that would not prove necessary.

Berlins coalition government the first ever reached between three parties brings together the Social Democrats, the Greens and the right-wing Free Democrats.

It pledged to make the climate emergency its top priority, by phasing out coal power by 2030 and expanding renewable sources to cover 80 per cent of all energy needs by the decades end.

Mr Scholz appealed to Germans to get vaccinated, announcing a seven-point plan to tackle the very serious Covid situation hinting at the introduction of vaccine passes.

And Amsterdam may soon have a rival as the European capital of cannabis, with plans to legalise recreational use of the drug and sales from licensed shops.

This will control the quality, prevent the circulation of contaminated substances and ensure the protection of minors, the coalition contract states.

In a call with Mr Martin, the prime minister today said that he would be left with no choice but to activate Article 16 if talks between Lord Frost and European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic fail to deliver a rebalanced and sustainable outcome soon.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: The prime minister raised his ongoing concern about the substantial distance between the UK and EU positions when it comes to resolving the issues with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The Protocol was rightly keeping North-South trade open but its implementation was damaging the much larger East-West dimension.We could not allow a situation to develop in which the government was unable to provide economic support to Northern Ireland in the same way it could in the rest of the UK.

Ultimately Northern Irelands place in the UK internal market was crucial to its long-term prosperity and could not be damaged.

The implementation of the Protocol was now colliding with economic and political realities and significant change was necessary. The Court of Justice (CJEU) was part of this fundamental imbalance because disputes were decided in the court of one party.

The rest is here:

Brexit: German government warns Boris Johnson of retaliation for breach of Northern Ireland deal - The Independent