Daily Archives: November 17, 2021

At the same time, Bruce Cain of Stanford suggested that a Democratic defeat in 2022 could be a potentially favorable development for the partys long term prospects:

It is quite possible that losing in the 2022 midterm is the best path to winning the presidency in 2024. It will put the Republicans in a put up or shut up spot vis--vis problems facing the country, and Biden meanwhile can work the middle without looking over his left shoulder.

Cain took this logic a step further to argue that

In retrospect the worst thing that happened to Biden was the Democrats winning the two seats in Georgia. It raised expectations among some in his party that they could go left legislatively while the political sun was shining when in reality the political math was not there for that kind of policy ambition.

Cain added:

The best hope for the Democrats is that Trump will undermine some Republicans during his vengeance tour and that the weakness of the people who want to run under his banner will create some unexpected wins for the Democrats.

Howard Rosenthal, a political scientist at N.Y.U., added this observation:

Pundits, who have to earn a living, always want to impute causality to election losses. However, the midterm cycle is just normal. Voters tend to balance the president. Over time, they also create divided government at the state level.

A surprising number of those I contacted made the case that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan did more lasting damage to Biden than might have been expected.

The extended wall-to-wall media coverage of the hurried exit from Afghanistan probably served as a catalyst for some folks to update their views on Bidens performance and take into consideration both the foreign and domestic concerns, Ted Brader, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, wrote in an email:

Im skeptical that those events themselves drove the lower assessments; Americans weigh domestic events much heavier than foreign affairs. But the heightened attention and criticism can serve as an attention-getting call to re-evaluate the president: Wait, how well is he doing his job? As political science research has convincingly demonstrated, bipartisan criticism, as we saw with the Afghan withdrawal, in particular, opens the door to weaker support among independents and members of the presidents own party.

Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, wrote me that things touching on competence (Afghanistan, border, congressional inaction) are probably the most important in driving down Bidens ratings, but for the future, it is inflation and the general economy that will matter most, I think.

Herbert Kitschelt, a political scientist at Duke, contended in an email that the problems facing Biden and his Democratic colleagues run deeper than any single issue:

Biden was elected as a moderate to put back some sanity into government through a steady hand and incremental reforms. Instead, a wing of the Democratic Party took the 2020 election in which the Democratic Party lost a surprising number of House seats as a voter mandate to implement a pretty fundamental program of social reform and sociocultural change. While I personally might like a lot of these policy initiatives myself, I also realize that this programmatic ambition is consistent with the wishes of only a minority of core Democratic voters, and certainly not that of the centrist voters who prevented Trump from being re-elected.

The history of midterm elections suggests that substantial House losses for the party of the incumbent president are inevitable, barring such unusual circumstances as public hostility to the Republican-led impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks raising Republican support in 2002 the only two times since that the incumbent party gained seats since World War II.

In 2010, Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, political scientists at Dartmouth, Columbia and the University of Texas at Austin, published Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections, in which they argued that between February and Election Day, the presidential partys vote strength almost always declines. But, they continued,

the degree of decline is unrelated to the publics evaluation of the president. Clearly, during the midterm election year, the electorate shifts away from the presidential party in its vote choice for reasons that have nothing to do with the electorates attitudes toward the president. By default, this is balancing: The electorate votes against the presidential party to give more power to the other party.

In a 1988 paper, The Puzzle of Midterm Loss, Erikson examined every midterm contest since 1902 and explicitly rejected the theory that such contests are a negative referendum on presidential performance. Instead, Erikson wrote,

A presidential penalty explanation fits the data nicely. By this explanation, the midterm electorate penalized the presidents party for being the party in power: Holding constant the presidential year House vote, the presidents party does much worse at midterm than it would if it did not control the presidency.

While substantial midterm losses for the incumbent presidents party are inevitable under most circumstances, that does not mean external developments have no influence on the scope of the outcome.

Kitschelt, quoting James Carville, noted in his email: Its the economy, stupid. And that means inflation, the supply chain troubles and the inability of the Democrats to extend the social safety net in an incremental fashion.

The inflation rate, Dritan Nesho, the director of civic technology and engagement at Microsoft and a co-director of the Harvard-Harris Poll, wrote in an email,

is now outpacing wage growth. As a consequence close to 4 in 10 voters are saying that their personal financial situation is getting worse. This figure is up from the low 20s in May and importantly, majorities of voters are not confident in either the Biden administration keeping inflation at bay (56 percent not confident/44 percent confident) and also of the Federal Reserve (53 percent not confident/47 percent confident).

In addition, Nesho said,

over two-third of voters (68 percent) believe illegal monthly border crossings have increased since Biden took office, 65 percent blame Bidens executive orders for encouraging illegal immigration, and 68 percent want stricter policies to reduce the flow of people across the border.

In January 2021, the month Biden took office, the University of Michigans consumer sentiment index stood at 79. By Nov. 1, the index had fallen to 66.8, the lowest it has been since November 2011. Richard Curtin, director of the consumer sentiment survey, wrote in a commentary accompanying the report: Consumer sentiment fell in early November to its lowest level in a decade due to an escalating inflation rate and the growing belief among consumers that no effective policies have yet been developed to reduce the damage from surging inflation.

Similarly, when Biden took office in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the inflation rate was 1.4 percent; as of October this year, the rate had risen to 6.2 percent.

View post:

Opinion | Democrats Shouldnt Panic. They Should Go Into Shock. - The New York Times

Democratic congressional candidate Rochelle Garza speaks with voters in Brownsville, Texas, in September. Many Latino voters in South Texas turned against Democrats during last year's presidential election and winning them back could prove critical to the party's hopes of retaining control of Congress during next year's midterms. Eric Gay/AP hide caption

Democratic congressional candidate Rochelle Garza speaks with voters in Brownsville, Texas, in September. Many Latino voters in South Texas turned against Democrats during last year's presidential election and winning them back could prove critical to the party's hopes of retaining control of Congress during next year's midterms.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching a new, multimillion-dollar effort to engage and mobilize voters of color ahead of the midterm elections, including investments in local organizing and a seven-figure research and polling effort.

The plan, the details of which were shared first with NPR, includes an initial $30 million investment to hire local community organizers, launch targeted advertising campaigns aimed at nonwhite communities, as well as building voter protection and education programs. The committee is also working to combat disinformation efforts that are specifically focused on voters of color.

The announcement comes as Democrats are preparing to defend their slim congressional majorities in 2022, and as many in the party are still assessing their unexpected losses in significant elections this month. It is an early signal of how national Democrats plan to work to ensure that the racially diverse coalition that elected President Biden and delivered victories in key states across the country that gave Democrats a bare Senate majority shows up again.

"What we have learned from studying the 2020 election is when we invest in communities of color, it pays real dividends," New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview.

The announcement is also an indication that party leaders are aware that the broad, racially diverse coalition of voters that elected Democrats must be engaged consistently, and must not be treated as monolithic groups. While Democrats won the White House last year, they lost ground among nonwhite voters without a college education. Biden's campaign faced criticism over mixed results among varied segments of the Latino electorate, missteps that were blamed for setbacks in critical states like Florida and Texas, where a number of key House races will be decided in 2022.

Democrats are also facing aggressive redistricting by Republicans in some states, as well as souring approval ratings for the president and the Democratic Party.

Georgia Rep. Nikema Williams, a freshman who is leading the committee's efforts around voting rights and voter education, said that "we can't just show up in a community and expect people to listen to us and turn out overnight."

Williams, who is also the chair of the Georgia Democratic Party, said that recent Democratic victories in her state were the result of years of aggressive and consistent work.

"And I had a novel idea, what if we did year-round organizing and continued to bring information to the voters and continued to let voters know how Democrats were delivering for them? That's what we did in Georgia, that's how we won in Georgia, and that's what we're doing with the DCCC," Williams said.

Maloney said that as part of the Building our Base Project, he wants "boots on the ground much earlier, not just showing up at election time, and putting the resources behind it with a culturally competent, diverse team that knows what it's doing."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee itself was the subject of complaints over diversity in its leadership, prior to Maloney's tenure as chairman. The committee says its staff is currently comprised of nearly 50% people of color, and the senior leadership team is 71% people of color. The DCCC also elevated Tasha Cole, the deputy executive director for diversity, equity and inclusion, as a member of the senior leadership team and added Missayr Boker to lead the committee's independent expenditure. Boker is the first Black person and person of color to hold that role.

The committee also plans to target Republican efforts to spread misinformation, as well as to cast all Democratic candidates as far-left. The committee says it will have a particular focus on social media platforms frequently used in communities of color. Voters of color were flooded with disinformation in the days leading up to the November 2020 election, and some Democrats say the party didn't do enough to combat it.

"It's not enough to just wave it away and pretend it doesn't matter. We need to take these lies and distortions seriously," Maloney said. "We need to have a robust effort to counter that disinformation, and we need to do research so we understand exactly how to do that without turning off our most reliable voters."

The Democratic National Campaign Committee is also launching its own voter protection team and increasing its efforts to educate voters. Federal voting rights legislation remains stalled in the Senate, despite repeated attempts by Democrats to pass bills in response to a wave of state-level laws championed by Republicans that restrict ballot access. Democrats and voting rights advocates say those laws have a disproportionate impact on people of color.

"We're making sure that we are doubling down on making sure that people know how to navigate all of these new rules and new laws, and making sure that any roadblocks to the ballot box are 'un-hurdled' by the DCCC," Williams said. "We should not have to out-organize our way out of voter suppression, but we're not giving up."

House Republicans have been taking cues from Democrats in many ways when it comes to candidate recruitment in recent years as they focus on a more diverse slate of recruits. The National Republican Congressional Committee says this year that nearly 90% of its 70 target districts have a female, veteran or minority candidate already filed to run.

It's a strategy the GOP used in 2020 when it was able to significantly narrow Democrats' majority in the House, even as Republicans lost control of the Senate and White House.

Asked about Republican recruiting efforts, Maloney said the House Republican Caucus "is not a diverse group of people that represents the full mosaic of the United States."

"What I can tell you is that we will field a truly diverse group of candidates. And I should point out, that some of our candidates who are running in the toughest districts are people of color, and we know that they have done an extraordinary job of telling their story and bringing voters to their cause."

Maloney ticked off the names of a number of Democratic incumbents of color: Reps. Lucy McBath of Georgia, Antonio Delgado of New York, Jahana Hayes of Connecticut and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.

"They have all done an extraordinary job of winning tough districts that are not diverse. And so we believe, absolutely in our hearts, that our diverse candidates are our true strength, not just in districts that are diverse, but in some of the most competitive districts of the country," he added.

Originally posted here:

House Democrats have a new strategy to engage voters of color in the midterm elections - NPR

News of a federal wiretap didnt hurt Norcross clout. Neither did Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, an ally of public sector unions who hired lawyers to dig deeply into Norcross use of the state's tax incentives. Nor did progressive efforts to disrupt Norcross' power in the region's principal city of Camden or its suburbs.

Instead, the biggest hit to the power of Norcross came this month, when a truck driver who spent $10,000 on his campaign defeated Sweeney. It was one of the biggest political upsets in New Jersey history and the biggest in the nation this year a dark omen for Democrats worried about the 2022 midterms. That night, South Jersey Democrats also lost two of their six state Senate seats and four of their 12 state Assembly seats, accounting for most of the Democratic Partys losses in New Jersey, where Murphy stumbled to a narrow, 3-point reelection victory.

Now, Trenton insiders are looking slack-jawed at the diminishment of South Jersey Democrats dominance. Sweeney, Norcross and their machine fell victim to a blue collar revolt where the partys decades-long cultivation of conservative-leaning voters and adherence to flawed internal polling failed to predict or resist a Republican wave.

The arithmetic is undeniable in the fact that weve lost seats in the southern region, said state Assemblymember John Burzichelli (D-Gloucester), a 19-year incumbent in Sweeneys district who also lost his seat this month. I think that speaks for itself.

In this 2018 file photo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy addresses a gathering in the Assembly chamber of the Statehouse in Trenton, New Jersey. | Mel Evans/AP Photo

The outcome says something important about Democratic chances in the suburbs ahead of next year, when the country will hold 36 governors races on top of congressional elections. The same red wave that handed Sweeney his loss and put Glenn Youngkin in the Virginia governor's mansion did less damage to Democrats in the more white-collar suburbs in the northern half of New Jersey. As the Democrats in South Jersey also sustained losses at the local level, losing several county offices in the region, Democrats in the north flipped one Senate seat and lost just one Assembly seat. Murphy appeared to do better in some of those areas, too.

That suggests the Republican resurgence of 2021 is not a reversal of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats made remarkable strides in suburbs across the country including in New Jersey. Affluent and middle-class suburbs and exurbs that turned from purple to blue three years ago may still be Democratic. Its in more blue-collar communities, places that already backed Donald Trump, where voters who had supported moderate Democrats for years decided to vote Republican this time around.

Here in Trenton, the impact is already being felt: While South Jersey Democrats still compromise a substantial voting bloc in the state Legislature, January will be the first time in 16 years that one of their own does not preside at the top of either the General Assembly or state Senate.

With Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin set to stay in place and state Sen. Nicholas Scutari (D-Union) in line to replace Sweeney, its a political sea change. Sweeney had worked hand-in-hand with Christie to pare down pensions for new public workers and cut health benefits. Together, they took over struggling Atlantic City and overhauled its finances, restructured South Jerseys university system and designed a tax credit system that directed millions to Camden.

Prior the pandemic, Sweeneys relationship with Murphy was strained at the best of times, while the two engaged in open political warfare during the worst times something that almost led to a government shutdown as they fought over Murphys first budget. Scutaris rise to power owes more to the now-larger Democratic delegation in Middlesex County, in Central Jersey, whose priorities will be different than those of South Jersey Democrats.

Weve got to get away from those years when Mr. Norcross and Mr. Christie were an oversized influence, said state Sen. Richard Codey (D-Essex), whom Sweeney ousted as senate president 12 years ago.

How did it happen? In a somber concession announcement Wednesday, Sweeney blamed a red wave. Norcross, in an interview with POLITICO shortly after the election, blamed a national anti-Democratic mood defined by the partys progressive wing. Voters massively rejected that notion, which was largely defined from the top in Washington, then down through New Jersey, he said.

Steve Kush, a Republican consultant who has spent years running unsuccessful legislative candidates against the South Jersey Democratic machine and, in 2003, nearly came to blows with now-congressman Donald Norcross, Georges brother referred back to the man who beat Sweeney: Edward Durr.

Ed Durr said it best. Two words: Phil Murphy, said Kush, who helped Durrs longshot campaign. Kush said he believes that a general disenchantment with the South Jersey Democrats patronage machine may have also played a role. Theres a lot of folks with jobs in the county government who feel they have to be loyal to the machine. None of them will ever say it out loud. But they tell you. Im a Democrat because I have a job, he said.

The Murphy campaign, in a memo meant for public consumption, blamed the national environment for the close result in the governors race, in which Murphy beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about 75,000 votes. The memo credited a smart, aggressive turnout strategy of vote-by-mail and early voting that enabled it to deliver a victory in the face of historic New Jersey voting patterns, strong GOP turnout, and a challenging national environment for the Democratic Party. And progressives who detest the South Jersey Democratic machine celebrated Sweeney's defeat albeit to a conservative who had a history of anti-Muslim social media posts for which he's since apologized.

There is a dent in the machine. Theres an opening a small little hole and if you keep pushing it, the hole keeps getting bigger and bigger, said Ronsha Dickerson, a Camden activist and Norcross critic who said she left the Democratic Party because she lost faith in it but still votes that way.

In this Dec. 10, 2015, photo, Steve Sweeney speaks to a gathering at the Statehouse in Trenton, New Jersey. | Mel Evans/AP Photo

There have been signs of Democratic vulnerabilities in South Jersey for years. Trump, for instance, narrowly won Sweeneys district in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats pains in South Jersey werent felt as acutely further north, though a couple Democratic North Jersey counties Bergen and Passaic, for instance were far closer than expected, with Murphy winning them by a relatively narrow margin.

Ironically, though, it may have been a backlash against Murphy by rural and suburban blue collar South Jersey voters that helped doom Sweeney and the other South Jersey Democrats.

[Murphy] dragged the party so far left and I think the voter perception was [South Jersey Democrats] didnt do enough to stop him, said Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli campaign consultant. Ultimately, I think voters made a decision that, if theyre not going to stand up to him and get in his way, why have him? Theyre going to elect Republicans.

In 2017, Murphy won Gloucester County, Sweeneys home county, by about 13 points. In 2021, he lost it by 10. That result wasnt driven by Murphy getting less votes he got about 2,600 more than he did four years ago but by Ciattarelli getting 22,500 more votes than the last Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kim Guadagno.

Sweeney got only a few hundred less votes accross his district than he did in 2017, according to the latest tally. But Durr got over 11,000 more votes than Sweeneys Republican challenger, Fran Grenier, did four years ago. Thats despite the fact that the New Jersey Education Association, the states largest public sector union, spent over $5 million to boost Greniers candidacy as it feuded with Sweeney over pension contributions.

South Jersey Democrats built their dominance of the region by engaging with Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats, a less blue voting base than up north, without Democratic powerhouses like Essex and Hudson counties. But Democrats have also made inroads in central and northern New Jerseys suburbs. In once-solidly Republican Somerset County a more affluent suburban area of Central Jersey thats home to Ciattarelli as well as former Republican Gov. Christie Whitman Murphy did better than he did in 2017, and Democrats picked up a state Senate seat that had been held by a Republican for decades.

It doesnt bode well for the south, Somerset County Democratic Chair Peg Schaffer said. But we didnt anticipate this, that the Republican vote down there was very significant. Its very conservative down there and we have a progressive governor.

In North Jerseys wealthy Morris County, which used to be one of the biggest Republican vote plurality producers in the state, Ciattarelli netted 21,000 more votes than Murphy less than half of what Christie, a Morris County resident, netted over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009.

Democrats cant count on Cumberland, Salem or Gloucester anymore, said Cook Political Report Editor Dave Wasserman, a New Jersey native, referring to the three counties in Sweeneys district. Their future is in Somerset and Morris Counties.

Were talking about a long-term realignment in voters support for the parties, he said.

But Republicans, having seen Norcross raise millions of dollars to spend against their candidates by hosting a couple fundraisers, arent celebrating their impending doom.

Knowing George Norcorss the way I know George Norcross, what it means is hes going to raise even more money and come at us even harder, Kush said. It means we better hunker down.

See the original post:

How one election left this powerful Democratic organization fighting to survive - POLITICO

We are so sorry! We bumped into a system failure and couldnt take your email this time.

Thank you for signing up!

They've called it a "racist dog whistle" and a "lie."

But those messages haven't helped Democrats tamp down the uproar Republicans are fueling over "critical race theory," now a misused catch-all term for teaching on race and diversity in K-12 schools that's firing up protests at school board meetings around the country.

In Virginia, Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin exploited the term and pledged to "ban" it in classrooms on his first day as governor, even though critical race theory an academic approach to examining racial bias is most often taught in law schools. Republicans plan to lean into the issue in the 2022 election cycle.

Democratic strategists say the party should hit back harder against "divisive" GOP claims while not losing sight of the priority for voters; the economy.

"On a political level it's a real threat that is allowing Republicans to claw back the inroads that Democrats have made in the suburbs over the last couple of election cycles," said Jim Manley, a longtime aide to former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.

Democrats haven't yet pushed back on this issue enough, but the "good news" is the party's response is effective and there's time to make the case before the 2022 elections, said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. They just need to make the case "relentlessly," he said.

"Voters run from the Republicans when Democrats peel back the onion on what these claims really mean," he said. "It's not just that Republicans want a bigger role for parents in education, it's that Republicans are willing to let white supremacists write curricula."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House campaign arm for Democrats, downplayed the threat to the party in congressional races. This fall, they tested responses to false claims about critical race theory in K-12 schools. The messages they say resonate most with battleground voters: Democrats want to teach the truth about US history and honor those who fought to make the country better, Republicans are trying to divide Americans and Democrats want to deliver for American families.

Democrats' message to voters in 2022 will be more compelling than "Republicans' divisive lies," said Chris Taylor, a DCCC spokesman.

"House Democrats safely reopened schools, delivered tax relief in the Child Tax Credit, and we're fighting for universal pre-K and paid family leave," he said in a statement to Insider. "Republicans stand in opposition to American families. Our bet heading into 2022 is that voters will choose progress over division."

The message tracks with a new Washington Post-ABC News poll that found most Americans overall said public schools should teach "a good amount" or more about how the history of racism affects the US today. While most Democrats and independents said schools should teach about the effects of racism, just about 4 in 10 Republicans agreed.

But Manley said the results in Virginia's recent gubernatorial race show that Republicans used critical race theory as a wedge issue to raise broader concerns among suburban voters. To suggest it's just an issue for the GOP base is "kind of like putting your head in the sand," he said.

"We need to figure out how to address this phenomenon without overplaying our hand and or allowing Republicans to, you know, break the education system in this country," Manley said.

A Fox News Voter Analysis survey found 25 percent of Virginia voters polled cited the critical race theory debate as the most important factor in their support for a gubernatorial candidate, and most of those voters went for Youngkin over Democrat Terry McAuliffe.

DCCC chair, Rep. Sean Maloney of New York, told The Washington Post that Democrats have "learned from the lies and distortions of the last election." Democrats will argue that "children need to learn their history all of it without censorship or politics limiting what they can learn," Maloney told columnist Greg Sargent.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said Democrats are on "strong terrain" when they talk about "teaching the truth" about racism in history and they should be more aggressive in their responses.

"Voters are wildly, wildly in favor of it and even half of Republicans think some of this stuff should be taught," she said. "Their strategy is, mobilize their base and distract us, and shame on us if we get distracted."

That's not to say there aren't lessons to be learned from Virginia. Lake said the bigger problem for McAuliffe wasn't about critical race theory, but his "problematic" statement during a debate that parents shouldn't be "telling schools what they should teach." Now, House Republicans are calling for a "parents bill of rights" in education.

Democrats need a better answer about parental involvement, Lake added, and the "irony" is that more Democrats are parents than Republicans. "We ought to be very comfortable with this," she said.

The real issue for voters is whether a candidate is on the side of parents and students or not, Ferguson said. And Democrats have a strong case to make about providing money for schools and blocking "censorship," but they need to lean into it.

"When Democrats talk about how Republican plans would put politicians in charge of classrooms and censor teachers, the swing voters who Republican voters thought they were winning quickly flee," he said.

It's not enough to say that Republicans are lying about critical race theory being taught in classrooms when right-wing media is driving the issue and parents are also hearing about it from other parents at their schools, Ferguson said.

"It can't be dismissed as just a lie," he said. "It needs to be defeated as a way to put politicians in charge of the classroom and white supremacists in charge of the curriculum."

"Culture wars" will be a problem in 2022 races, and "Democrats are always on defense," said former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, a progressive leader. Democrats shouldn't run from the conversation about critical race theory, but they need to quickly pivot to real economic challenges people are facing in their everyday lives.

"If the Democrats would focus most of their time delivering on the promises that they made in 2020, then people couldn't get distracted with all this other nonsense that the Republicans are throwing out there," she said.

Lake said the critical issue for Democrats is the economy and not education.

"I don't minimize the amount that the Republicans are doing to try to energize their base with this issue," Lake said. "But this is not a threat to us. The economy is the much bigger threat than critical race theory."

Insider would like to know how your school district is handling the critical race theory controversy. Please contact Nicole Gaudiano at ngaudiano@insider.com.

Read more here:

Democrats plan an aggressive strategy on critical race theory claims - Business Insider

Democrats and other critics of former President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden sends 2016 climate treaty to Senate for ratification US, China ease restrictions on journalists Americans keep spending MORE celebrated when criminal charges were leveled againstStephen Bannon late last week.

But the political downside of the pursuit of Bannon is becoming clearer by the day.

Theres no guarantee that the underlying purpose of the prosecution to compel Bannon to cooperate with the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection will work.

Bannon may ultimately prefer the risk of a fairly short jail sentence, and the martyrdom it would confer on him from Trump supporters, over testifying.

Even if he were to cooperate, the question then becomes whether the public will learn anything more damning than it already knows about Bannon and his former boss.

After all, Bannon said on his podcast the day before the riot that all hell is going to break loose tomorrow. And Trumps central role in inciting the insurrection was so blatant that he became the first president in American history to be impeached twice.

Above all, the criminal case has given Bannon the biggest platform he has enjoyed in years.

The news that he had been indicted on two counts of contempt of Congresson Friday was the lead story on the websites of The New York Times and other leading news organizations.

Bannons initial court appearance on Monday was another media circus, with network newscasts running footage of Trumps former chief White House strategist lambasting the prosecution and President BidenJoe BidenIdaho state House passes worker vaccine compensation bill Biden sends 2016 climate treaty to Senate for ratification Rubio vows to slow-walk Biden's China, Spain ambassador nominees MORE. Bannon live streamed his comments outside the court on the social network Gettr, a favorite among pro-Trump conservatives.

On Thursday, Bannon will get another bite of the publicity cherry if, as expected, he is formally arraigned.

Bannon revels in it. He loves it, said Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, who compared the former Trump aides zeal for media attention to that of another associate of the former president, Roger StoneRoger Jason StoneThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon DeSantis floats formation of police force to crack down on election crimes Stone says he'll run for Florida governor if DeSantis doesn't do audit MORE.

Bannons ardor for the spotlight is well known throughout Washington including among reporters who find him more personally engaging than his sinister public persona suggests.

He had seemed to be a marginalized figure after Trump disowned him back in early 2018 following the publication of a damaging book by the journalist Michael Wolff. But Bannon ultimately made his way back into Trumps good graces, conferring with him following the then-presidents election loss last year.

Now, in seeking to get details of what exactly was said between Trump and Bannon, the former aides adversaries have restored him to the center of the political stage. From there, he is sure to amplify Trump's fictions about election fraud, among other things.

But does all of that mean that Democrats and Merrick GarlandMerrick GarlandThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Unions sue in bid to represent Connecticut National Guard members Top Senate Democrat calls on attorney general to fire prisons chief MOREs Department of Justice (DOJ) are wrong tohave pressed the case against him?

Not necessarily.

The DOJ would presumably not pursue the case if it was not confident of conviction.Announcing the indictment, Garland said he was honoring a promise to "show the American people by word and deed that the department adheres to the rule of law."

Allowing Trump and Bannon together to thumb their noses at a congressional inquiry into the grave attack on the Capitol was simply unacceptable for most Democrats and many other Trump critics.

Reps. Bennie ThompsonBennie Gordon ThompsonThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Trump allies target Katko over infrastructure vote Meadows 'between a rock and a hard space' with Trump, Jan. 6 panel MORE (D-Miss.) and Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon House to vote Wednesday to censure Gosar, remove him from committees Gosar defends anime Ocasio-Cortez video to GOP MORE (R-Wyo.), the chairman and vice chairwoman of the Jan. 6 committee said in a statement that the indictment should send a clear signal to anyone who thinks they can ignore the Select Committee or try to stonewall our investigation: No one is above the law.

Some prominent Democrats were even more emphatic.

The indictment showed that even the insurrectionist allies of Donald Trump are not above the law and the American justice system is back in business, Rep. Jamie RaskinJamin (Jamie) Ben RaskinThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Subpoenas show Jan. 6 panel's focus on Trump's plans Overnight Energy & Environment Presented by American Clean Power Democrats prepare to grill oil execs MORE (D-Md.) tweeted.

Welcome back to the rule of law, Rep. Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Mo Brooks says he would 'be proud' if staff helped organize Jan. 6 rally GOP ekes out win in return of Congressional Baseball Game MORE (D-Calif.) tweeted as the news of Bannons indictment broke.

But, for Democrats, the problem is that the enemy Bannon and the GOP gets a votetoo.

In Bannons case, that means characteristically pugnacious rhetoric outside the courthouse about how he is taking down the Biden regime and how his criminal prosecution is going to be the misdemeanor from hell for Biden, Garland and others.

More substantively, the door is now open to future use of the same process by Republicans at whatever point they win back control of Congress an outcome that looks odds-on to happen a year from now.

Some Trump loyalists are already salivating at the prospect.

Joe Biden has eviscerated Executive Privilege, Rep. Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Meadows comes under growing Jan. 6 panel spotlight Sunday shows preview: Biden administration confronts inflation spike MORE (R-Ohio) tweeted on Friday.

Referring to key Biden aides, he added, There are a lot of Republicans eager to hear testimony from Ron KlainRon KlainThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Manchin uncertain Biden plan will address inflation Biden aides offer praise for Harris after critical CNN report MORE and Jake SullivanJake SullivanRubio vows to slow-walk Biden's China, Spain ambassador nominees The Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon US, China get chance for cool-down with virtual summit MORE when we take back the House.

HouseRepublican Conference Chairwoman Elise StefanikElise Marie StefanikThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Virginia emerging as ground zero in battle for House majority Republicans look to education as winning issue after Virginia successes MORE (R-N.Y.) complained, also on Twitter, that during former President ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaBriahna Joy Gray: White House is setting Harris up to move past her The Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Biden's decision on Fed chair said to be 'imminent' MOREs time in office, both former Attorney General Eric HolderEric Himpton HolderThe Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon Ben Affleck, Tracee Ellis Ross join anti-gerrymandering fundraiser with Clinton, Holder North Carolina legislature approves new US House map MORE and former IRS official Lois Lerner were held in contempt of Congress and no indictments or arrests were made.

Even some Republicans critical of Trump question whether the precedents currently being set will have bad consequences further down the line.

This is dangerous ground, said Rick Tyler, a GOP strategist who has been strongly critical of Trump for years. Its tit-for-tat. When you have power, you dont use it to govern, you use it to exact revenge from your political enemies.

Others,including Lichtman, counter by saying that Democrats need to show some determination in their pursuit of figuressuch as Bannon.

One of the failings of the Democrats is that they dont have much of a backbone, he said. Republicans are ruthless, they will do whatever it takes.

Democrats are trying to take a page from that playbook now.

But the risks are higher than they might have imagined.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

More:

The Memo: Democrats may rue pursuit of Bannon | TheHill - The Hill