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Daily Archives: November 7, 2021
‘Just Put Me In Charge,’ Rudy Giuliani Told Donald Trump. ‘They Stole This Thing’ – Newsweek
Posted: November 7, 2021 at 12:09 pm
In this daily series, Newsweek explores the steps that led to the January 6 Capitol Riot.
As the numbers moved towards Joe Biden on November 6, Donald Trump went on a Twitter rampage. His tweets, and those of this closest advisors, fed the belief that the election had been stolen and that Trump was truly the winner.
During the day, Trump met with campaign officials and lawyers whom he had charged with looking into election results. Trump brought in Rudy Giuliani on a call. "They stole this thing," the former NYC mayor told Trump. "If you just put me in charge" we could fix it, Giuliani said.
Sidney Powell, a lawyer for the campaign and the former attorney for Michael Flynn, claimed on Fox Business a "likelihood that 3 percent of the total vote was changed in the pre-election, voting ballots there were collected digitally."
At 9:00 a.m., Trump tweeted: "STOP THE COUNT!" following up an hour later with "ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED."
Donald Trump Jr. urged "total war" over the election results, tweeting: "The best thing for America's future is for Donald Trump to go to total war over this election to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long."
Via Twitter, Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) called on Arizona Governor Doug Ducey to "investigate the accuracy and reliability of the Dominion ballot software and its impact on our general election." That tweet helped spark a social media wildfire, drawing intense interest from accounts that regularly circulated QAnon-related content.
In Detroit, Michigan, more than 200 protesters, including militia movement members, gather to demonstrate. In Youngtown, Ohio, Trump supporters targeted a local news station for a protest. More protests took place in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Kelly O'Brien posted, "DO NOT GIVE UP THE GOOD FIGHT! Elections will not be stolen in this country. Not My Country. What it took to accomplish THE MIRACLE known as THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is amazing. Fight for this. Fight for your freedom. Fight for future generations. It's up to you. DO NOT GIVE UP! We will win this. Truth always prevails." The Pennsylvania woman would later go on to lead protests on January 6 and was arrested for entering the Capitol.
The COVID-19 pandemic made no concession to the political turmoil, and Washington D.C. was a district caught in the middle. Mayor Muriel Bowser issued Mayor's Order 2020-110, which modified the requirements for visitors coming into Washington DC and District residents returning to DC from any state or country that was not considered "low-risk." The new requirements required visitors and residents to use testing, in conjunction with other strategies for stopping the spread of COVID-19, to understand their potential exposure.
Meanwhile, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who had frequently appeared at public events without a mask, had been diagnosed with COVID-19, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters on November 6. It was not immediately clear when or how he had been infected.
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'Just Put Me In Charge,' Rudy Giuliani Told Donald Trump. 'They Stole This Thing' - Newsweek
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In Trumpland parallel reality, election was stolen and racism was long ago – The Guardian
Posted: at 12:09 pm
Its a gray afternoon, promising rain and with temperatures in the 50s, people have taken their jackets out of the closet.
The streets of downtown Monroe, Georgia, a town of about 14,000 residents 45 miles due east of Atlanta, are quiet for a Saturday. Its the county seat of Walton county and a monument honoring Confederate veterans stands tall outside the county courthouse. The soldier carved from granite looks across Broad Street to the towns police station and is flanked to the south by the Walton Tribunes office and a district office for representative Jody Hice.
Hice, a Republican and former pastor and talkshow host, has announced his candidacy for Georgias next secretary of state and is one of three candidates for statewide offices in next years national elections who have received Donald Trumps endorsement. Unsurprisingly, 74% of Walton countys residents voted for Trump last November.
And, although Monroe had the opportunity on 2 November to vote for Democrat Emilio Kelly as the towns first Black mayor in its 200 years of history, residents three days before election day wanted to talk about what one man called the disastrous state of affairs they see in the US. (Kelly would go on to lose.)
A year on from an election Trump lost, they believe theyre living in a country where Joe Biden was not legitimately elected, the government is paying people not to work and the state is contaminating childrens minds in public schools, while violating the rights of parents by insisting on teaching about racism that happened a long time ago. Some are pretty sure Covid was created in a lab, that natural immunity works fine and that vaccines could make you sicker.
The situation is so dire that the current administration has possibly damaged our country permanently, said Patrick Graham, owner of the Tribune and author of a recent editorial titled, Yall Biden Folks Proud Yet?
None of the Trump supporters picking up pizza or visiting candle and antique stores downtown believed the presidential vote tallies announced a year ago were accurate. They pointed to the allegations made prominent in Trumps failed lawsuits across the country and in Georgia.
With everyone screaming, Lets Go Brandon, theres no way in the world he had 81m votes, said Mark Kramer, a 68-year-old retiree who moved from nearby Lawrenceville a year ago.
A couple of blocks south, Mike, a 53-year-old, self-described good ol country boy who didnt want his last name known, had stopped at a gas station before heading home to watch the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. He believes the 2020 election was fixed.
Im not a conspiracy person but the more thought I put into it not in the state of Georgia, I dont believe it happened, he said, referring to Biden winning the popular vote.
I dont want to go so far as to say it was stolen, but ballots were trashed and a lot of things went wrong including here in Georgia, said Holland, a 54-year-old legal assistant at an Atlanta corporate law firm who was walking her dog Henry in the late afternoon drizzle.
About half the people the Guardian spoke to in Monroe had been vaccinated, a figure in line with Georgia as a whole, consistently in the bottom of national rankings for vaccination rates. Graham, the Tribune editor, expressed concern over the government forcing an experimental chemical into peoples bodies to keep them employed If we keep going in this direction, its going to erode our freedoms.
I dont care for masks or vaccines, said Jason Mealer, a 38-year-old McDonalds employee. We had Ebola here and that was deadly. Why do something about it now? I say, just live your life.
Retiree Mark Kramer said theres no ingredients you can read in Covid vaccines, and that they are poison theyll cause you more disease than anything else. No one in his family had been vaccinated, he added, pointing to a restaurant nearby where they were waiting for him. Kramer didnt want his picture taken; his son-in-law standing nearby explained their objections: You have BLM, antifa you have no idea what they might do if a photograph were to appear online.
The personal impacts of global or macroeconomic forces were also on peoples minds in downtown Monroe, without much interest in the global or macro sides of the equation. High gas prices, bottled supply chains, short staffing consensus was, they are all due to the current administration.
I went to Ihop and their schedule had changed to 7am to 4pm due to staff shortages, said Holland. People in my own town are staying at home instead of working, she said. Biden is paying people to stay home.
The notion that radical changes have taken place in how students from kindergarten through grade 12 are taught about race and racism in US history tagged as CRT or critical race theory is not absent among Trump supporters in Monroe, where most Black and white residents live in separate parts of town to this day. CRT is an academic discipline that examines the ways in which racism operates in US laws and society. It is not taught in Georgia schools.
I dont agree with whats being taught in schools, said Holland. Parents should have a say, and teaching kids that white people are racist is the wrong thing. Its almost like they want to recreate history, she said.
Bringing in CRT is not what teaching is all about, she said. Preparing for college, for the real world, is what its about. Not about race, or anything else.
But race and racism is woven into Monroes history.
A few miles from where Holland spoke, in 1946, a mob of several dozen white people shot and lynched two Black couples, by Moores Ford Bridge, which crosses the Appalachee River.
The gruesome act of violence led a 17-year-old Martin Luther King Jr to write a letter to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and President Harry Truman ordered the FBI to investigate. No one was found guilty. In an ongoing lawsuit, the 11th circuit US court of appeals ruled in March of last year that grand jury records from the case must remain sealed, keeping all of us from potentially learning what happened that day, and who was responsible.
The Moores Ford lynching persists not just in the courts, and the memories of many; only two months ago, Monroes current mayor, John Howard, presented a statement to the towns city council publicly acknowledging it for the first time. One Black city council member refused to sign the statement, calling it a political stunt aimed at currying favor among the towns Black voters in Howards bid for re-election.
Should schools in Monroe teach children about the lynching at Moores Ford? If so, how? That sort of history though it was ghastly should be taught, said Jeff Blackstone, a 58-year-old who owns a company that installs hotel TV systems. But we have all learned from our mistakes. Although there are still some outliers who go back to the horrid ways of previous years, that should not be tolerated. And I dont agree with what the government is trying to do with our lives like CRT trying to teach us societal views.
I think we need to move beyond Black, white and brown, Blackstone said. I hire and fire people and dont judge by their color, but what they can do to help me.
James Trae Welborn III, associate professor of history at Georgia College & State University, says racism and its expression has changed over time.
Racism now takes seemingly benign forms talk of personal liberties, colorblindness The idea is that racism is people running around in white hoods, burning white crosses. So you say, I wouldnt do that, and anything that falls short of that isnt racism.
Welborn also pointed to the idea that racism happened a long time ago, the shared urgency among Trump supporters to deny and marginalize the issue of race and racism, in favor of the beacon of liberty and freedom narrative in American history. A civil war historian, Welborn sees parallels between the views and rhetoric of Trump supporters and those of the Confederacy. Theres even similar language the threats of violence: Come to the Capitol and give em what for, he said.
Meanwhile, in the present, many Trump supporters in Georgia are following Garland Favorito and his organization, VoterGA, which has two lawsuits in state courts tied to last years elections. Favoritos organization is 15 years old and works on election integrity a term which was then used in public discourse in reference to issues such as how to employ audit methods that could truly verify elections results, and now is mostly used to underline any supposed evidence that Trump won. Until last year, VoterGA was primarily supported by progressive Democrats. Now, Favorito receives social media followers, and donations, from thousands of Trump supporters, in Georgia and elsewhere.
As for last years election, he said, the truth is, nobody knows who won. The secretary of state [in Georgia] can tell you he knows, but he has no idea. This is because, he said, allegations of ballot stuffing have not been satisfactorily investigated by the state and a forensic analysis of election system servers in the states 159 counties has not been performed. The problem is that nobody wants to get to the truth.
Asked about the process followed in Arizona, where a group called Cyber Ninjas took months to review election materials from the states largest county and still concluded that Joe Biden won Favorito said that the groups work was never really completed, because the state didnt supply them with everything they sought to examine. This means we will never know who won in Arizona, he said.
Asked if it concerns him that many of the Trump supporters supporting his work in Georgia are the same people who hold positions such as the vaccine being poison, he said, No, it doesnt concern me to speak truth Trump supporters have just as much a right to say Trump won as the secretary of state says Biden won, because we dont know the truth.
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In Trumpland parallel reality, election was stolen and racism was long ago - The Guardian
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Donald Trump baselessly suggests ‘nutjob’ Alec Baldwin may have had ‘something to do with’ the shooting of ‘Rust’ crew members – Yahoo News
Posted: at 12:09 pm
Former President Donald Trump baselessly claimed that actor Alec Baldwin could have purposefully shot crew members Brandon Bell/Reuters (L), Mark Sagliocco/Getty Images (R)
Alec Baldwin fired a prop gun on a movie set, killing cinematographer Halyna Hutchin and injuring another.
Trump said that he thought Baldwin was a "troubled guy" and a "nutjob."
Trump said; "Who would take a gun and point it at a cinematographer and pull the trigger and she's dead?"
Former President Donald Trump baselessly claimed that Alec Baldwin might have purposefully shot crew members on the set of the movie "Rust."
The firing of a prop gun by Baldwin on set led to the death of the director of photography, Halyna Hutchins, and injured the director, Joel Souza.
"He's a troubled guy. There's something wrong with him. I've watched him for years. He gets into fistfights with reporters," Donald Trump told conservative radio host Chris Stigall in a podcast on Thursday.
"He's a cuckoo-bird, he's a nutjob. And usually, when there's somebody like that, you know, in my opinion, he had something to do with it."
Alec Baldwin has described the event as a "tragic accident." In the police affidavit, Baldwin said that he was told that the gun was not loaded.
Trump added that he thought Baldwin had behaved irresponsibly by pointing the gun at a crewmember, whether it was loaded or not.
"But if nothing else, how do you take a gun and just, whether it's loaded or not loaded, how do you take a gun, point it at somebody that's not even in the movie and just point it at this person and pull the trigger and now she's dead?" he said.
Trump said on the podcast that if he had been handed a gun, he would first discharge it into the air to make sure it wasn't loaded.
He added that Hutchins was a crewmember and not an actress, which he said made it odd that the gun was aimed at her.
"It's weird," Trump said. "Who would take a gun and point it at a cinematographer and pull the trigger, and she's dead?"
Investigators have been looking into how live ammunition ended up in the gun, and Trump suggested that Baldwin might have loaded the gun that killed Hutchins.
Story continues
"As bad as it may have been kept, meaning you know the people that take care of the equipment and the guns and everything else But even if it was loaded, and that's a weird thing- maybe he loaded it," he said.
Alec Baldwin portrayed President Donald Trump on "SNL." NBC / Getty Images
The former president went on to say that he thought Baldwin's impersonation of him on Saturday Night Live over the years was "terrible."
"There's something wrong with him. He's a sick guy. I mean, I've seen him for years because he did. I thought a poor job of imitating me," Trump said.
Donald Trump Jr. has also mocked the actor over the incident, selling shirts that say "guns don't kill people, Alec Baldwin kills people."
The investigation into Hutchins' death is ongoing. No one has been charged.
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The Conservative Backlash to Progress – The Atlantic
Posted: at 12:09 pm
Although the United States was born of a revolution, one common view maintains that the Constitution tamed our rebellious impulse and launched a distinctly nonrevolutionary political experiment. But throughout American history, an important strand of conservatism has repeatedly championed rebellionsor what are better understood as counterrevolutions.
They emerge like clockwork: Each time political minorities advocate for and achieve greater equality, conservatives rebel, trying to force a reinstatement of the status quo.
The term counterrevolution is significant not only because conservatives have regularly employed it, but also because it highlights their own agency, something they often seek to conceal. In order to portray their actions as defensive rather than aggressive, conservatives tend to depict themselves as acted upon and besieged. As William F. Buckley wrote in the National Reviews mission statement in 1955, conservatism stands athwart history, yelling Stop. Here the agent is history; conservatives are merely making a reply. But such rhetorical gestures discount what any close look at these movements makes clear: Conservatives have done much more than yell. They have fought against equality vigorously, often violently.
David Frum: The conservative cult of victimhood
Three historical momentsthe revolt against postCivil War Reconstruction, the mid-century fight against civil rights, and the modern Tea Party and Trump movementsstand out as perfect examples of the counterrevolutionary dynamic. They share certain broad themes: a hostility to racial equality, the invocation of apocalyptic rhetoricthat America is under siege, as President Donald Trump told the crowd on January 6 prior to the Capitol insurrectionand a deep distrust of democracy.
During Reconstruction, conservatives denounced its proponents as dangerous revolutionaries, often comparing them to notorious figures from the French Revolution. We do not know of two men who have come up prominently before the world in revolutionary times more alike than Marat and Thaddeus Stevens, The New York Herald said in 1866. One Nashville newspaper contended in 1868 that the Radical Republicans in Congress aim to abolish the constitution, to destroy public liberty, and to concentrate the power of the country in the hands of usurpers embodying the very essence of despotism that shocked the world and subjected France to the reign of terror under Jacobin rule.
The reign of terror that the Nashville newspaper decried was in fact the emergence of multiracial democracy. Many conservatives were entirely frank about this, such as the one featured in Mississippis The Meriden Daily Republican who wrote, The two races cannot and will not rule jointly and coequally One or the other must become subordinate. This is the history of all such experiments everywhere.
Outlawing racial discrimination, in this view, was grounds for regime change, even violence. Take, for example, an editorial statement of Missouris aptly named The Lexington Weekly Caucasian from 1872. It began with two demands, State Sovereignty! White Supremacy! and threatened ANOTHER REBELLION if they were not acceded to. Revolution must be met by CounterRevolutionForce by ForceViolence by Violenceand Usurpation should be Overthrown, if needs be, by the Bayonet! Calling white supremacy a counterrevolution could justify nearly anything, bloodshed included.
The counterrevolutionary politics of this era proved to be extremely effective, as much of the racial progress achieved during Reconstruction was wiped out or even reversed in subsequent decades. By the mid-20th century, the conservative backlash had reinforced white supremacy through Jim Crow laws and intense voter suppression. W. E. B. Du Bois famously called this the counter-revolution of property. Black citizens in Indianola, Mississippi, for example, constituted a majority of the local countys population but only 0.03 percent of its registered voters. Du Bois reflected on this state of affairs, writing, The slave went free; stood a brief moment in the sun; then moved back again toward slavery.
When the civil-rights movement mobilized against this oppression and inequality, conservatives began to fear that what some were calling the Second Reconstruction might be as dangerous for them as the first. Barry Goldwater, in many ways the prototypical modern conservative, was among them. In a letter he wrote while running for president in 1963, Goldwater called the civil-rights movement a revolution and said that he was very apprehensive about how far it will go.
So conservatives responded with yet another counterrevolution, one intended to maintain carefully constructed racial, economic, and social hierarchies. As the Black historian Lerone Bennett Jr. wrote in Ebony magazine in 1966, the counter-revolutionary campaign of terror against Reconstruction was merely the first white backlash; the United States was living through the second.
The guiding principles of this backlash had been laid out 10 years earlier in the Southern Manifesto of 1956. Signed by more than 100 congressmen, the manifesto responded to the Brown v. Board decision mandating school desegregation by issuing a bold defense of the Jim Crow status quo and pledging to fight the revolutionary changes in our public school systems. As schools became battlegrounds, conservatives, especially those in the South, dug in their heels.
From the October 2020 issue: The new Reconstruction
For many right-wingers, the historical memory of Reconstruction-era radicalism combined with Cold War anxieties. To them, civil-rights activism was the work not only of revolutionaries but of communists. As the Oklahoma minister Billy James Hargis warned in one newspaper column, The communists have been urging their followers to bring pressure upon the federal government, to force Reconstruction days upon the Southern states again. In a 1965 essay titled Two Revolutions at Once, Robert Welch, the leader of the far-right John Birch Society, derided the push for civil rights as a Negro Revolutionary Movement driven by communist saboteurs rather than oppressed Black citizens.
As was the case during Reconstruction, this counterrevolutionary rhetoric enabled violenceviolence against leaders like Martin Luther King Jr., violence against activists like the Freedom Riders, violence on college campuses, violence at the hands of the Ku Klux Klan, violence at the hands of the police. But conservatives frequently accused activists of inciting it. Following the Selma march, a piece in American Opinion, the Birch Societys flagship magazine, claimed, The violence in Selma doesnt have to do with voting rights at all it has to do with Communist Revolution, with Communists intentionally setting the stage for race war. A menacing enemy within justified a violent illiberalism.
As politicians debated the proposed Civil Rights Act, the fury of white southerners increased. If dictatorial planners insist upon ignoring and trampling majority rights in efforts to favor minority groups, they may in time provoke a White Revolution, Tom Ethridge wrote in The Clarion-Ledger in Jackson, Mississippi. This so-called white revolution was, in fact, a counterrevolution designed to shore up the racial caste system.
When that caste system showed signs of decay some four decades later, a similar backlash came about. Shortly after the election of Americas first Black president, the Tea Party exploded into the public consciousness. Its members adopted the iconography and language of the American Revolution, styling themselves patriots and attending rallies clad in knee breeches and tricornered hats. Despite this getup, the Tea Party was not a revolution but a counterrevolutiona defense of privilege and hierarchy rather than a call for egalitarianism.
Racial resentment played a crucial role in Tea Party ideology. Birther conspiracies flourished within the movement, whose adherents viewed President Barack Obama more as a fifth-column threat than a legitimate political opponent. Tea Partiers claimed that some people were getting too many handouts or werent working hard enough to earn their keep; typically those people were illegal immigrants or other minority groups that were referred to using coded language. As recounted by Theda Skocpol and Vanessa Williamson in The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism, one Virginia Tea Partier asserted that a plantation mentality prevented some people from getting off the dole, a racist argument that reflected the counterrevolutions Reconstruction-era origins. The solution, according to the movement, was to dramatically reduce the governmentat least the parts of it that benefited the wrong people. This had the added advantage of divesting power from leaders who couldnt be trusted. As one Tea Partier put it to Skocpol and Williamson, The people I was looking for back when I was a cop are now running the government.
Despite the fact that the Tea Party received heavy funding from right-wing plutocrats, the movement had a populist panache. The counterrevolution had gone mainstream, and all of the aggrievement, mistrust, and racial resentments that had festered within conservatism for generations laid the foundation for the rise of Donald Trump.
Although Trump is often described as unprecedented or norm-breaking, his rhetoric has deep roots in the conservative movements counterrevolutionary tradition. He warned us that America was beset by enemies, an often-racialized group of others who were amassing power too quickly and using it to threaten the American way of life. Obama was a Kenyan-born Muslim imposing radical views on the United States. Immigrants were invading and taking our jobs. The media were the enemy of the people, and Democrats were treasonous and un-American. Washington, the home of illegitimate majorities, was a swamp that needed draining.
Beyond adopting the rhetoric of counterrevolution, Trump also embraced its most dangerous element: a call for political violence. On January 6, he stood before thousands of supporters and proclaimed, We fight like hell. And if you dont fight like hell, youre not going to have a country anymore. Just a few beats later, Trump declared, Were going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue And were going to the Capitol, and were going to try and give. He stopped short of issuing a direct instruction, but his assembled supporters understood the assignment, storming the U.S. Capitol in an effort to overturn the election. That the Capitol siege failedas did subsequent efforts to overturn the election through courts and auditsdoes not diminish the dangers presented by the counterrevolutionary impulse in todays conservatism.
Adam Serwer: The Capitol riot was an attack on multiracial democracy
It was not long before the GOP followed Trumps lead. Dan Patrick, the lieutenant governor of Texas, promoted the white supremacist great replacement theory on Laura Ingrahams show. The revolution has begun, Patrick said, arguing that, by allowing more migrants into the U.S., the Democrats were trying to take over our country without firing a shot. And now, at Trumps behest, the state of Texas is auditing the 2020 votes in the states four largest counties, all of which are Democratic strongholds. The audit ploy may have failed in Arizona, but the counterrevolution continues.
If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism, David Frum, a Never Trump conservative, wrote in The Atlantic. They will reject democracy. But Frums warning about the dead end of Trumpism ignored the illiberalism and minoritarian inclinations baked into the conservative pie. The reality is that the counterrevolutionary mindset is a feature, not a glitch, of modern conservatism, one that offers authoritarian solutions to democracys right-wing discontents.
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AI Helping to Refine Intelligence Analysis – GovernmentCIO Media & Research
Posted: at 12:08 pm
Artificial intelligence and machine learning capacities are allowing analysts to produce quicker, more streamlined assessments.
Americas national security organizations have begun applying AI to more quickly and effectively produce intelligence assessments.
Speaking at the GovernmentCIO Media & Research AI: National Security virtual event, Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) Research Directorate Mark Segal discussed how these new capacities are assisting intelligence analysts in better processing and sorting large quantities of often complex and disparate information.
In outlining the NSAs research priorities, Segal noted that both AI and machine-learning capacities already showed promise for better organizing the large pools of variable data their analysts sort through in producing regular assessments.
One of the challenges that we have found AI to be particularly useful for is looking through the sheer amount of data that's created every day on this planet. Our analysts are looking at some of this data trying to understand it, and understand what its implications are for national security. The amount of data that we have to sort is going up pretty dramatically, but the number of people that we have who are actually looking at this data is pretty constant. So we're constantly looking for tools and technologies to help our analysts more effectively go through huge piles of data, Segal said.
This application of AI to analysis has the potential to expedite the delivery of actionable intelligence to policymakers as well, who are able to more quickly and conclusively come to decisions based on a more effective sorting of available information.
We analyze information and then provide that analysis to policymakers. For example, lets say we're looking at a large pile of documents and trying to understand what the intentions of another country are by looking through that data quickly. We want to zoom in immediately on the most important parts of that data, and have our skilled analysts say, We think this entity is doing a specific thing, and then leave that to the policymakers to determine how we might respond, Segal said.
Segal cautioned that agency technologists need to start with a realistic understanding of AI and machine learning to make most effective use of these new capacities, and to see them in terms of how they can concretely refine internal processes and advance their organizations key aims.
One of the biggest risks about AI right now is that there's this huge amount of hype surrounding it AI is a tool just like any other tool. And the way that you use a tool is to figure out where it would be effective, and where it would actually help solve a problem in our research organization. One of the things that we try to do is actually look at the technology in order to apply it to real problems and analyze the results in a scientifically rigorous manner, Segal said.
Segal also cautioned agencies to avoid creating undue biases within their algorithms, as these built-in flaws would ultimately distort the resulting analysis in ways that are either ineffective or potentially dangerous if they go uncorrected.
A lot of machine-learning algorithms are trained on data, and one of the challenges that can emerge there is that if the data is biased, its going to affect the output," Segal said. "For example, with facial-recognition software, if the training data only has people that have a certain hair type, or a certain skin color, or certain facial features, it will not work in practice because when you encounter other data that you've not seen before, the algorithm will behave in unpredictable ways."
One of the most promising applications NSA researchers have begun exploring is automated data sorting, using AI to sift through large quantities of documents and identify relevant information far more quickly than a human worker would be able to.
Imagine you've got a very large pile of documents, and in some of these documents there are really important things you want analysts to look at while some of the other documents are completely irrelevant. So one of the ways that we've used AI and machine learning in particular is we can have a trained human look at a subset of these documents and train a model to say which ones are really important and which ones are less important. Once you've trained a model and have enough data that you train the model successfully, you can go through a much larger collection of documents much more quickly than a human being could do it, Segal said.
Another concrete use case that aligns AI with operational efficiency is using tailored algorithms to convert speech to text.
If you can do that, you can make that text searchable, which once again makes the analyst more productive. So instead of listening to thousands of hours of audio to hear one relevant audio clip, you put in a few keywords and scan all this processed text, Segal said.
Segal emphasized that no matter how advanced these capacities become, national security institutions should continue evaluating AI for both potential biases, as well as through the central criteria as to whether or not these new uses are conducive to their longstanding mission.
I think the main way that we do that is when we try these experiments, pilot studies and different techniques, we have a way of quantitatively measuring its effectiveness. When it proves to be effective, we refine the techniques. And when it proves not to be effective, we take a step back and think about why it failed, Segal said.
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Political instability & prospects of civil war in Afghanistan to figure high on Nov 10 NSA meet in New Del – Economic Times
Posted: at 12:08 pm
Measures to address cross-border terror threat & presence of terror groups, spread of extremism & radical ideas from Afghanistan and political instability leading to economic troubles in Afghanistan will dominate the first meeting of regional national security advisers convened by India on November 10.
Besides growing threat from terror groups, a number of Afghanistan's neighbours in Central Asia and Russia are worried over political instability and economic woes within the Taliban-controlled country and they fear civil war and its spill over impact in the region, ET has learnt.
The lack of cohesiveness in the Taliban ranks that could contribute to intra-Afghan conflict has been a matter of concern for Afghanistans neighbours in Central Asia as well as Russia. Terror groups may take advantage of this situation to use Afghanistan as a haven.
The Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan will be chaired by NSA Ajit DovalTwo earlier meetings in this format have been held in Iran in September 2018 and December 2019. The third meeting in India could not be held earlier due to the pandemic.
While NSAs of Russia (Gen Nikolay Patrushev), Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will attend the meet (for first time all Central Asian states & not just Afghanistans immediate neighbours are part of dialogue), Iran will be represented by its NSA Ali Shamkhani. It is not yet clear if China will attend the meeting physically or attend it virtually. Pakistans NSA has ruled out his participation.
Neither India nor Russia is in haste to provide official recognition to the Taliban even if they maintain contacts with the group. India has been categorical on its demand that the Afghan territory should not be used for third-country-sponsored cross-border terror. Tajikistan has been steadfast in its demand for an inclusive regime in Kabul. Iran has suggested polls to determine the next government in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that Russia regretted that the terrorist and drug threat continues to come from Afghanistan after the Taliban returned to power.
"I can confirm that the terrorist and drug threats coming from Afghanistans territory, as well as the general situation in these areas in that country, are still a pressing problem for us. I can state with regret that the situation has not changed after the Taliban came to power," she said, adding that terror attacks staged by the Islamic State in Afghan cities were an example of that. Narcotics smuggling will also be on the agenda of the November 10 meet.
Zakharova also referred to the threat of increasing migration from Afghanistan. "Envoys of terrorist organisations, criminal elements, militants and so on may infiltrate into neighbouring countries under the guise of refugees," she said.
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Populism’s Exploitation of Insecurity: A Look at France …
Posted: at 12:07 pm
Populism Beyond Fear? Frances right-wing Marine Le Pen and left-wing Jean-Luc Mlenchon
But thinking about the relationship between populism, insecurity, and emotions in this one-dimensional way is insufficient. This line of reasoning often relies on incorrect assumptions.
We tend to equate populist commentary on security, with discourses around crime or law and order. This is arguably an oversimplification. The risk is that despite acknowledging that insecurities and grievances play a role in the success of different right-wing populisms we overlook how the populist left also engages in this kind of discourse.
We also tend to think of populism as a negative phenomenon, exploiting peoples deepest fears and clouding rational thinking. On the contrary and just like any other political phenomenon populism can elicit an array of emotional reaction which including positive ones.
I examined speeches by Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mlenchon during the last French Presidential election campaign in 2017. Le Pen is the leader of Rassemblement National (formerly Front National), a prototypical example of a European populist radical right party. Mlenchon is the founder and leader of La France Insoumise, a prototypical example of a populist radical left party.
Le Pen and Mlenchon both conceive of insecurity through notions of danger, uncertainty, anxiety, and the need to protect the people from various harms. Crucially, however, their ideology informs their identification of sources of insecurity. For Le Pen, ideas of physical violence such as crime and terrorism, or cultural threats such as multiculturalism and immigration are most salient. For Mlenchon it is climate change, international securit,y and neoliberalism that are the threats. The two leaders overlap in identifying the European Union as an accelerator, or the actor, ultimately responsible for this exploding insecurity.
The latent emotional fabric of contemporary French populisms insecurity discourse can be mapped through implicit emotional appeals. Both Le Pens and Mlenchons insecurity narratives weave a story of insecurity, centered on the necessity that some threats should be feared and some enemies deserve anger and hostility while some in-groups should make us proud as we hope for solutions.
Through appeals to fear, anger, pride, and hope, Le Pen and Mlenchon perform emotional governance to guide and regulate public emotions on issues. Fear appeals appear at the start of Le Pens and Mlenchons narratives, setting the stage for a source of insecurity. The two then immediately shift attention to the unfair character of this danger and the dismissive, negligent, or even irresponsible behavior of the elites in power. These themes elicit anger and provide an interpretation of insecurity as the intentional product of the malevolent elites.
The narration of an unfair insecure existence is juxtaposed with positive, celebratory remarks praising the people. By highlighting the peoples positive traits and worth, both Le Pen and Mlenchon try to elicit pride in their audiences, re-energizing them in a call to avoid resignation.
Finally, these actors seize the insecure present by proposing actions to address insecurity in the future. In emotional terms, this grounds insecurity narratives in appeals to hope. After telling their audience what is wrong with society and who is responsible for generating pervasive insecurity, Le Pen and Mlenchon offer a positive outlook through reassurance of security attainment (for Mlenchon) and restoration (for Le Pen).
Contemporary insecurity is a complex phenomenon that is not always immediately intelligible. Identifying the emotional content of populist insecurity communication is vital. It helps us understand how populists can shape peoples understanding by focusing on specific interpretative cues. It also allows us to explore how populists address and respond to the wide range of insecurities linked to that appeal.
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Populism Is Not Good for the Planet – The Wire Science
Posted: at 12:07 pm
Photo: rob walsh/Unsplash
Humanity is running an unprecedented experiment with Earths atmosphere. The last time atmospheric carbon levels were as high as they are now was in the Pliocene epoch, three to five million years ago. Back then, rhinos lived in North America. Crocodiles and alligators lived in Europe. Trees grew in the Arctic. Ocean levels were 75 feet higher. To put it into context, a 75-foot increase in sea levels puts many of the worlds major cities underwater, including London, Miami, Tokyo, Manila, New York, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Jakarta, Dhaka and Shanghai.
In the past 500 million years, the planet has experienced five mass extinction events, each of which wiped out most of the species on the planet. Only one was caused by an asteroid, with the other four being driven by greenhouse gases. Studying the carbon cycle changes that led to these extinction events, geophysicist Daniel Rothman concludes that the threshold for a sixth extinction event is when more than 310 gigatonnes of carbon are added to the oceans. On a business-as-usual trajectory, human carbon emissions are currently on track to add 500 gigatonnes by 2100.
Extreme meteorological events are bumping up against the limits of existing weather scales. Following record-breaking heat in 2013, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology added two new colors to its temperature maps, raising the top temperature from 50 C to 54 C. After Hurricane Harvey, the US National Weather Service added two new shades of purple to its rainfall maps, raising the upper limit from 15 to 30 inches. Meteorologist Jeff Masters proposes that the existing five-category hurricane scale be expanded by including a category six hurricane what he described as a black swan storm.
In Glasgow, countries are confronting the reality that their announced measures will not come close to meeting the Paris climate targets. According to an assessment by the nongovernmental organisation Climate Action Tracker, only a handful of nations have implemented climate policies that are consistent with 2 C of warming, while a few (such as the European Union) would come close. Most countries policies, the body says, are insufficient, highly insufficient or critically insufficient.
There is a strong economic case for climate action. Once installed, wind and solar provide energy at almost zero marginal cost. Averting dangerous climate change avoids the costly impact of heatwaves that cause premature deaths and restrict outdoor work, hurricanes and wildfires that take lives and damage property, destruction of coastal property and reduced agricultural yields.
If these benefits sound good, they should appear doubly attractive when the prospect of averting a global catastrophe is added to the picture. If future lives matter as much as ours, it is callous not to reduce carbon emissions. The case for decisive action is strengthened still further by recognising that much of the problem has been created relatively recently. As journalist David Wallace-Wells has observed, The majority of the burning has come since the premiere of Seinfeld.
Climate change is not solely a problem bequeathed to us by our ancestors. Many of those responsible for the carbon emissions that are causing the planet to warm are still alive today.
Yet focusing on catastrophic risk in climate change and other areas is hampered by the growth of populist politics. Not every populist is a climate denier, but virtually all climate deniers are populists. One analysis of the 21 largest right-wing populist parties in Europe found that one-third were outright climate deniers, while many others were hostile to climate action. Right-wing populists make up 15% of the European Parliament, but their votes account for around half of all those voting against climate and energy resolutions.
A recent study in the UK identified voters who held populist beliefs about politics. These populist voters were significantly less likely to agree that global warming is caused by human action and less likely to support measures to protect the environment.
Populism is on the rise. From 1990 to 2018, the number of countries with populist leaders increased from four to 20. The best known was President Donald Trump, who once claimed that climate change is a hoax, and asserted that global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive. In the current Congress, 52% of House Republicans and 60% of Senate Republicans are climate deniers.
In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has loosened controls over land clearing in the Amazon. This has led farmers to accelerate deforestation by logging and burning. In mid-2019, satellite analysis of major fires in the Amazon showed that an area the size of Yellowstone National Park had been burned. At this pace, this additional deforestation could push the Amazon rainforest towards a tipping point.
Populists view politics as a contest between a pure mass of people and a vile elite. Right-wing populists often include scientists in their characterisation of the elite. This has led to a spate of clashes between populist leaders and scientists. Dutch far-right leader Thierry Baudet rails against climate change hysteria. Allies of Hungarys leader Viktor Orbn included scientists on a list of people it brands as mercenaries of billionaire philanthropist George Soros.
By throwing petrol on the political flames, populism makes cooperation harder. Californias 2006 cap-and-trade emissions reduction program was passed by a Democratic legislature and signed into law by Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Yet today, two-fifths of Republican voters and Democratic voters think their political opponents are evil, and one-sixth regard them as animals. Thats hardly conducive to encouraging representatives to reach across the aisle.
How, then, do we overcome populism? It requires addressing the key economic grievances that have led many voters to turn in desperation to extremists. That means creating renewables jobs in communities whose employment base currently relies on fossil fuels. It involves building a more equitable education system, and updating democratic institutions to make them more democratic. Defusing populist rage takes empathy, not disdain.
Combating populism will not be easy, but it must be done. Our world depends on it.
Andrew Leigh is the author of Whats the Worst That Could Happen? Existential Risk and Extreme Politics, and a member of the Australian Parliament. This article was first published by MIT Press Reader and has been republished here with permission.
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What New Jersey Truck Driver Edward Durr’s Win Reveals About Populism – The Atlantic
Posted: at 12:07 pm
I go on this great republican principle, James Madison said in 1788, that the people will have virtue and intelligence to select men of virtue and wisdom. Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation.
The notion that a virtuous people will select virtuous representatives to exercise their judgment is at the core of the American experiment. Populismthe notion that the people are always right by virtue of being numerous and ordinaryis utterly antithetical to our national idea. The Founders hoped that America would be led by people of moral and intellectual excellence; they built anti-majoritarian firebreaks into the Constitution precisely to avert sudden and intemperate movements.
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Countries that fall to populism inevitably pay the price of misrule. Populism is an excellent vehicle for motivating an angry population, but its a lousy path to better government. Turkey is the most recent nation to learn this lesson the hard way. Since 2016, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan has purged tens of thousands of civil servants (including judges) from the government. The result, as the Turkish writer Semra Alkan recently noted, is that the Turkish state has fired its way into disaster, with Turkey in free fall in every aspectincluding its economy and its foreign policybecause of a government of incompetent lackeys.
Which brings me to New Jersey.
I genuinely have no idea if now-defeated New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney should have lost his seat. He may well deserve to join the ranks of those such as Eric Cantor and Joe Crowley, members of Congress who thought they were invulnerable until a groundswell against them in their primaries proved otherwise.
But I am not moved by the narratives surrounding the candidate who bested him, a truck driver named Edward Durr. Im absolutely nobody. Im just a simple guy. It was the people, it was a repudiation of the policies that have been forced down their throats, he told reporters on Thursday. Durr says he ran because he was upset about being unable to obtain a concealed-carry permit for a weapon in New Jersey.
The plucky ordinary fellow taking down the mossy old Trenton pol has been catnip for many of my former comrades on the right, including many I greatly respect. But they seem to be acting on the belief that the local voter is always right and the long-serving politician is always wrong.
Tom Nichols: This Republican Party is not worth saving
Or, at least, that the local voter is always right if the challenger is a Republican. This is not a narrative, I should add, that any conservatives seem willing (as far as I know) to apply to upstarts such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Few Republicans applauded the temerity and grit of a young state legislator named Barack Obama, whom they argued was just a pushy gate-jumper.
Inexperienced people who will carry forward your agenda are good; inexperienced people who will oppose you are merely inexperienced and arrogant.
I find this kind of populist celebration of inexperience particularly painful, because I know that local action can be powerful. Some 40 years ago, my working-class city in western Massachusetts was in the grip of its postindustrial slide. Our small neighborhood was tucked up against the polluted banks of the Connecticut River, shining with oil and dead fish, and our view of the water was marred by paper factories on the opposite shore dumping chemicals day and night. Property values, never particularly high, suffered; tidy three-deckers were abandoned and then repopulated by a rough crowd, including drug dealers.
My parents were trying to run a struggling restaurant during the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and the short walk from our house to the business took us right past a small drug market. Cars pulled up and sales were made in plain sight. My mother tried to get the city to do something, but there were only so many police, and the landlords of the building seemed immune to zoning or health infractions.
My mother ran for local alderman on the single-issue platform of getting drugs out of the neighborhood. She wasnt trying to run the city, or become the governor, or solve the Soviet-American arms race. She just wanted the drugs gone.
Yascha Mounk: You cant win elections by telling voters their concerns are imaginary
She won. In a year, working with other city officials, she had helped bring a police substation to the area and demanded better enforcement of city ordinances against the landlords. The market was driven from the neighborhood.
But my mother also learned something about governing. In particular, she learned that she was not very good at it. City budgets were complicated; her knowledge of other neighborhoods in the city was limited; she didnt have the experience to do the million small things that constituents demanded. She was trying to run a business with my father at the same time, and she could not juggle the many hours in the day that both jobs required.
After one term, she was defeated by the same machine politician she had unseated. In her honest moments later, she admitted she probably shouldnt have run for reelection, but the race had a kind of grudge-match feel to it, and she let herself be talked into one more campaign, despite having already achieved the one thing she wanted to accomplish. I was no fan of the man who beat her, but he did know how to get potholes filled, and my mother did not.
I sincerely hope this truck driver turns out to be a good legislator. The early signs are not encouraging. His tweets and posts suggest that he might not be the virtuous and patriotic underdog his supporters believe him to be. In December 2019, for example, he tweeted, Mohammad was a pedophile! Islam is a false religion! Only fools follow muslim teachings! It is a cult of hate! His Twitter account is now deactivated. (In a statement issued to several media outlets yesterday, he wrote, Im a passionate guy and I sometimes say things in the heat of the moment. If I said things in the past that hurt anybodys feelings, I sincerely apologize. I support everybodys right to worship in any manner they choose and to worship the God of their choice.)
People who air grievances tend to carry more than a few of them, and so it seems in this instance. I love the David and Goliath stories of politics, but only if David isnt also a Philistinein which case, the contest is a draw no matter who wins.
To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, Madison said in his 1788 address, is a chimerical idea. If there be sufficient virtue and intelligence in the community, it will be exercised in the selection of these men. Conservatives hammer the gong of a republic, not a democracy when it suits them. If America abandons Madisons warning, we might still be a democracy, but we will no longer be a republic. We should think hard about that distinction before drinking too much of the populist moonshine.
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What New Jersey Truck Driver Edward Durr's Win Reveals About Populism - The Atlantic
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How Populism Imperils the Planet – The MIT Press Reader
Posted: at 12:07 pm
By throwing petrol on the political flames, populism makes cooperation on climate change nearly impossible.
Humanity is running an unprecedented experiment with the earths atmosphere. The last time atmospheric carbon levels were as high as they are now was in the Pliocene epoch, three to five million years ago. Back then, rhinos lived in North America. Crocodiles and alligators lived in Europe. Trees grew in the Arctic. Ocean levels were 75 feet higher. To put it into context, a 75-foot increase in sea levels puts many of the worlds major cities underwater, including London, Miami, Tokyo, Manila, New York, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Jakarta, Dhaka, and Shanghai.
In the past 500 million years, the planet has experienced five mass extinction events, each of which wiped out most of the species on the planet. Only one was caused by an asteroid, with the other four being driven by greenhouse gases. Studying the carbon cycle changes that led to these extinction events, geophysicist Daniel Rothman concludes that the threshold for a sixth extinction event is when more than 310 gigatons of carbon are added to the oceans. On a business-as-usual trajectory, human carbon emissions are currently on track to add 500 gigatons by 2100.
Extreme meteorological events are bumping up against the limits of existing weather scales. Following record-breaking heat in 2013, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology added two new colors to its temperature maps, raising the top temperature from 122F (50C) to 129F (54C). After Hurricane Harvey, the U.S. National Weather Service added two new shades of purple to its rainfall maps, raising the upper limit from 15 to 30 inches. Meteorologist Jeff Masters proposes that the existing five-category hurricane scale be expanded by including a category six hurricane what he described as a black swan storm.
Not every populist is a climate denier, but virtually all climate deniers are populists.
This week in Glasgow, countries are confronting the reality that their announced measures will not come close to meeting the Paris climate targets. According to an assessment by the nongovernmental organization Climate Action Tracker, only a handful of nations have implemented climate policies that are consistent with 2C of warming, while a few (such as the European Union) would come close. Most countries policies, the body says, are insufficient, highly insufficient, or critically insufficient.
There is a strong economic case for climate action. Once installed, wind and solar provide energy at almost zero marginal cost. Averting dangerous climate change avoids the costly impact of heatwaves that cause premature deaths and restrict outdoor work, hurricanes and wildfires that take lives and damage property, destruction of coastal property, and reduced agricultural yields.
If these benefits sound good, they should appear doubly attractive when the prospect of averting a global catastrophe is added to the picture. If future lives matter as much as ours, it is callous not to reduce carbon emissions. The case for decisive action is strengthened still further by recognizing that much of the problem has been created relatively recently. As journalist David Wallace-Wells has observed, The majority of the burning has come since the premiere of Seinfeld. Climate change is not solely a problem bequeathed to us by our ancestors. Many of those responsible for the carbon emissions that are causing the planet to warm are still alive today.
Yet focusing on catastrophic risk in climate change and other areas is hampered by the growth of populist politics. Not every populist is a climate denier, but virtually all climate deniers are populists. One analysis of the 21 largest right-wing populist parties in Europe found that one-third were outright climate deniers, while many others were hostile to climate action. Right-wing populists make up 15 percent of the European Parliament, but their votes account for around half of all those voting against climate and energy resolutions. A recent study in the United Kingdom identified voters who held populist beliefs about politics. These populist voters were significantly less likely to agree that global warming is caused by human action and less likely to support measures to protect the environment.
Populism is on the rise. From 1990 to 2018, the number of countries with populist leaders increased from four to 20. The best known was President Donald Trump, who once claimed that climate change is a hoax, and asserted that global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive. In the current Congress, 52 percent of House Republicans and 60 percent of Senate Republicans are climate deniers. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro has loosened controls over land clearing in the Amazon. This has led farmers to accelerate deforestation by logging and burning. In mid-2019, satellite analysis of major fires in the Amazon showed that an area the size of Yellowstone National Park had been burned. At this pace, this additional deforestation could push the Amazon rainforest toward a tipping point.
Populists view politics as a contest between a pure mass of people and a vile elite. Right-wing populists often include scientists in their characterization of the elite. This has led to a spate of clashes between populist leaders and scientists. Dutch far-right leader Thierry Baudet rails against climate change hysteria. Allies of Hungarys leader Viktor Orbn included scientists on a list of people it brands as mercenaries of billionaire philanthropist George Soros.
Defusing populist rage takes empathy, not disdain.
By throwing petrol on the political flames, populism makes cooperation harder. Californias 2006 cap-and-trade emissions reduction program was passed by a Democratic legislature and signed into law by Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Yet today, two-fifths of Republican voters and Democratic voters think their political opponents are evil, and one-sixth regard them as animals. Thats hardly conducive to encouraging representatives to reach across the aisle.
How, then, do we overcome populism? It requires addressing the key economic grievances that have led many voters to turn in desperation to extremists. That means creating renewables jobs in communities whose employment base currently relies on fossil fuels. It involves building a more equitable education system, and updating democratic institutions to make them more democratic. Defusing populist rage takes empathy, not disdain.
Combating populism will not be easy, but it must be done. Our world depends on it.
Andrew Leigh is the author of Whats the Worst That Could Happen? Existential Risk and Extreme Politics and a member of the Australian Parliament.
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