Daily Archives: October 24, 2021

Updated at 11:50 a.m. ET on October 21, 2021.

A pair of realities: This week, Colin Powell, the former secretary of state whose service under President George W. Bush is most prominently associated with the American invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, died at 84 due to complications from COVID-19, despite having been fully vaccinated. And: There are conditions under which any generally healthy person would most likely have a seizure.

These facts, as strange as they seem in juxtaposition, are relatedneither describes events at all out of the ordinary, and yet both arrive as a kind of shock, with the sense that something must be amiss. They share this: Theyre matters of probability, and probability is a fact of life in medicine, and a chaos agent in discourse.

Powells passing sparked a fresh round of social-media venom from vaccine critics, with the generals death serving as ammunition for their claims. The onslaught of told-you-sos sent news networks scrambling to invite experts to explain why the death of a single vaccinated person did not prove the overall worthlessness of the COVID-19 vaccines.

Kori Schake: What working for Colin Powell taught me

In Powells case, there is plenty of evidence to point to: The man was 84 years old, having lived, in other words, a very long life and having arrived at the highest risk category for death from COVID-19. Over time, bodies simply break downour defenses become frail, our organs fragileand no amount of medical intervention, no matter how heroic or generally efficacious, can forestall the end we all eventually meet. Nor was Powell in sterling health by the time he became infected with COVID-19. According to Powells family, he was in treatment for multiple myeloma, a cancer that affects white blood cells. These cells play a crucial role in protecting the body from infection; without them, even the most effective vaccines cannot perform their role. (A vaccine, after all, is more or less a highly skilled agent training your immune system to fight invaders; it doesnt matter if the vaccine expertly whips immune cells into shape if, when the time comes, they simply dont fight.)

To which the vaccine skeptic will likely say: Blah, blah, blah. Thats all just a long-winded way of saying vaccines dont work. If you get your shots and you still die of COVID-19, that means the vaccine didnt work. Case closed.

That this implicitly misstates the promise of vaccines is perfectly understandable. This is where a healthy persons hypothetical seizureand my real onescomes in.

If you are fortunate, you will live the majority of your life without ever having to think too much about medical decision making. (In fact, this is my hope for you, whoever you are: that you enjoy good health, and that if and when you do fall ill, your medical problems are straightforward, well researched, and easily treatable.) If you, like me, are a little less lucky, then you will become familiar with the way medical decision making actually works: probabilistically.

When I was 14, I was diagnosed with epilepsy. What this broad blanket term for dozens of syndromes means is that a person has unprovoked seizures, in my case both grand mal seizuresthat is, the convulsive ones most commonly associated with the wordand myoclonic jerks, which are short, repeated, electric-shock-like contractions of specific muscle groups, typically in my hands, arms, and shoulders. This array of symptoms is categorized as Janz syndrome. For me, the disorder will be lifelong. It has no known cure.

When you are diagnosed with epilepsy, one of the things you learn is that a seizure is a burst of sudden, uncoordinated electrical activity in the brain that can be prompted by all kinds of disruptionseven in perfectly healthy, non-epileptic people. An ordinary person without any neurological abnormalities whatsoever may have a seizure if, for instance, they sustain a serious head injury, develop a significantly high fever, go into shock, suffer blood loss, or use particular prescription or illicit drugs. All of those factors lower what neurologists refer to as a persons seizure threshold, the barrier between the average brain and a full-on electrical meltdown. For most people, the threshold is relatively high, and lowering it such that their likelihood of having a seizure comes to match, say, mine takes quite a disruption. Thats not the case for me. My seizure threshold is naturally quite low: It simply doesnt take much to scramble the grid in my part of town. That doesnt mean Im constantly having seizures, or that anytime I run into a factor that could trigger a seizure, I will have a seizure; it just means my odds of having a seizure are higher than the average gamblers.

Thinking in terms of odds helps patients with illnesses like mine consider treatments. Through one lens, no epilepsy medication worksat the end of the day, youre still epileptic, and your life is still circumscribed by limitations that do not apply to the lives of others. But that implicitly misstates the purpose of treatment: Epilepsy medications arent intended to cure epilepsy, or to guarantee that an epileptic never again has another seizure. Theyre meant to lower the odds that, on any given day, in any given situation, an epileptic person will have a seizure. Or to put it another way: They raise your seizure threshold to something closer to a non-epileptic persons.

Read: Why some doctors purposely misdiagnose patients

A windy day in an apple orchard with my kids is a roulette wheel, red and black. By natures accounting, my wheel is two-thirds black, and I can bet only on red. With anticonvulsant medication, I can reshuffle the pockets to 5050; with a good adjunctive therapy, I can cut the black down to a quarter of the game or less, and mostly forget that Im even placing a bet, though I always am.

And so it goes for medicine in general. In order to live, we need to forget that were placing bets, though we always are. So many of our treatments are so efficacious and well established that their benefits are never really called into question, and we take for granted that they simply work, when the reality is that they mostly work, most of the time, for most people.

The COVID-19 vaccines are no different. Elderly people living in states with higher vaccination rates during the Delta surge were more likely to survive than elderly people living in states with lower vaccination rates; unvaccinated Americans are 11 times more likely to die from infection with the Delta variant than vaccinated Americans; fully vaccinated Americans 65 and older are 94 percent less likely to be hospitalized than their unvaccinated counterparts, per a CDC assessment published in the spring. In any of those categories, there are undoubtedly outliers; there always are. But medicine isnt about playing the outliers. Its about playing the odds.

This story has been updated to clarify the mechanism by which vaccines produce immunity.

Link:

My Daily Life Is a Game of Roulette - The Atlantic

Iceland has a new spicy treat shoppers are keen to try with some saying it would make the perfect Christmas day game.

The frozen food supermarket has launched its Scarily Spicy 12 Jalapeno Roulette Wheel, with its packaging asking customers dare to spin?

The Iceland wheel is filled with nine breaded jalapeno and cheese bites and three extra hot breaded jalapeno, red chilli and cheese bites. Each item looks the same, so you only know which one you've got when you take a bite. The packet comes with a Very Hot warning and is priced at 3.

READ MORE: Martin Lewis' 'last chance' warning to anyone with a Tesco Clubcard

A picture of the Iceland Jalapeno Roulette Wheel was shared on Facebook page Snack News & Reviews earlier this month. The post racked up 530 comments with many people excited to try it.

Lily Chapman said: This just makes my mouth water for some reason. I would probably cry.

Kelli Linton tagged a friend and said: please play it with your dad! But only when Im there to watch xxx.

David Lucas told a pal: bit of you this.

Jason Elliott said: I will eat it all get me one please.

Many others tagged friends and suggested they try it.

Joe Deakin said: get these be a right laugh.

Jack Johnson asked friends: Christmas day game?

Craig Snailham said: lets give these a go!

And Shannon Chisholm added: we'll have these for next movie night!!

You can buy Iceland's Scarily Spicy 12 Jalapeno Roulette Wheel.

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Iceland's new 'roulette wheel' so spicy shoppers say they will 'probably cry' - Liverpool Echo

Like many destructive conflicts, Warsaws war with Brussels was never supposed to happen.

A former Polish diplomat who followed rule of law issues said that when the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was presenting its first judicial reforms after winning power in 2015: The aim wasnt to get into a fight with the European Commission.

Rather, the partys battle to almost immediately exert control over the judicial system was a domestic political initiative with its roots in PiSs previous and brief 2005-2007 stint in government. Party leader Jarosaw Kaczyski blamed the courts for undermining his radical political program with pettifogging separation of powers ideas that undermined what he saw as his partys democratic right to rule thanks to winning elections a concept he called legal impossibilism.

In its 2015 election program, PiS claimed that courts were politicized, corrupt, ineffective and dominated by communist-era judges and called for deep reforms to the justice system.

Without a deep reform of the courts, fixing the country is very difficult, as this is the last barricade, the last level of decision-making in many different cases, Kaczyski said in a 2018 interview.

Subordinating the courts is the key to having the state apparatus that wouldnt undermine PiS politics, said Anna Wjcik, co-founder of the Wiktor Osiatski Archive, which monitors the rule of law in Poland.

But the target was domestic control, not unleashing a continental war.

The problem for PiS was that, as a member of the European Union, Polands courts are part of a pan-European justice system, and the changes it was making quickly came to the attention of Brussels.

One of the first was the political capture of the Constitutional Tribunal, a top court thats meant to decide on the compliance of the law with the constitution. Rather than waiting for sequential retirements of existing judges, PiS and President Andrzej Duda illegally refused to seat three judges elected to the tribunal and replaced them with three seen as closer to the ruling party. That sparked a conflict with the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Europe, a non-EU body.

Its that court, now led by Julia Przybska, a close ally and personal friend of Kaczyski, that issued a bombshell ruling that the Polish constitution has primacy over some parts of the EU Treaties, setting off the current clash with the EU. Thats something that was fiercely debated when the European Parliament grilled Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki earlier this week, and which will be up for discussion by EU leaders during their summit on Thursday and Friday.

Critics say that over the last six years, PiS and its political allies have also taken over the public prosecutors office, exerted growing authority over ordinary courts, taken control of the body thats supposed to nominate judges, and set up a new disciplinary body in the Supreme Courtthat the Court of Justice of the EU ruled is not compatible with EU law.

Despite the growing clamor of protests from EU institutions, the Polish government pressed forward. It had the example of Hungary, its close ally, where the EU had failed to stop the countrys slide into an authoritarian semi-democracy under the rule of Prime Minister Viktor Orbn.

For all these years, PiS has seen that it can get away with anything. There might be problems, but eventually it is able to push through the majority of things, said Piotr Buras, the head of the European Council of Foreign Relations in Poland, a think tank.

Orbn had what he called his peacock dance, where he would beguile his European partners and then offer mainly symbolic retreats on rule of law and democracy issues.

EU institutions were largely toothless, as for a long time Brussels wasnt able to do much about Polands rule-of-law problems; it had the worlds steepest decline in democratic standards over the last decade, according to a report by V-Dem of the University of Gothenburg.

The Commission did open an Article 7 procedure in 2017, something that theoretically allows for an EU country to lose its voting rights for a serious breach of the blocs principles. But a mutual defense pact between Warsaw and Budapest means it will never get the unanimity it needs to be approved.

The Article 7 procedure didnt impress the PiS government because its only a procedure of political dialogue and this one can last forever, said Wjcik, adding that the Warsaw government was similarly unmoved by the Commission opening four infringement procedures against Poland.

The government in Warsaw also talked a good game, explaining over and over again at different fora that its judiciary reforms were essential, copied solutions in other countries and that it wasnt breaking EU rules.

Analysts point out that one of the main reasons Kaczyski appointed Morawiecki, an English-speaking former international banker, as prime minister was to navigate the shoals of rule of law issues with Brussels.

Together with his top aide, Europe Minister Konrad Szymaski, they attended Council meetings aiming to defang the increasing alarm from other EU countries.

But now the Polish government faces trouble.

The EU Court of Justice is ramping up its rulings against Poland, which could carry the sting of steep fines. Other European justice systems are starting to question things like Polish arrest warrants out of concern that people wont have access to a fair trial.

The final catalyst was the Constitutional Tribunals ruling on the precedence of Polish over EU law.

Now the EU has woken up, and Brussels finally has a weapon the 36 billion in pandemic grants and loans that Poland needs to recover from the pandemic, and that PiS needs to help it win the next election set for 2023.

Patryk Jaki, an MEP who helped formulate the judicial system reforms, said he didnt expect that the rule-of-law conflict would escalate to such a degree.

At first Kaczyski didnt fear Brussels reaction because he had no reason to, said Wjcik. Now big money is at stake.

But for Kaczyski the calculation is as much about power as it is about cash. If he retreats in the face of EU pressure, he undermines the narrative that hes the unrelenting defender of Polands national interest, opening himself to an attack on the political right from his coalition partner Zbigniew Ziobro, the powerful justice minister who helped push through the reforms and who has staked out a strongly Euroskeptic position.

On the left, Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and European Council president, and now leader of the main opposition party, is waiting to pounce.

Thats why both Kaczyski and Morawiecki are insisting that judicial system reforms will continue even if Warsaw is saying that it will give some ground by eliminating the Supreme Courts disciplinary chamber, albeit at an unspecified time.

In a tough speech to the European Parliament this week, Morawiecki fiercely defended the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal, saying Poland would not allow EU courts to interfere in national judiciary systems.

No sovereign state can agree to such an interpretation. To accept it would mean that the Union ceased to be a union of free, equal and sovereign countries, he said.

That means a fight that began thanks to Kaczyskis domestic political concerns is unlikely to end anytime soon despite it now engulfing the EU.

I think this discussion wont be over tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, a senior Polish diplomat said.

For now, both sides are digging in.

The only good ending for this in line with the rule-of-law is for the EU institutions to back off from its illegal usurpation, said Polish Deputy Justice Minister Sebastian Kaleta, a member of Ziobros United Poland party

The space for dialogue is narrowing, Commission Vice President Vra Jourov, who is responsible for the rule-of-law portfolio, said earlier this week, adding: There must always be space for dialogue, but dialogue where we respect each others voices and where the willingness to have dialogue is not taken as a weakness by some.

That leaves very little room for compromise.

This conflict can still be calmed down, said a senior Polish official. Were still talking about [mutual concessions], on both sides there are people who want an agreement but there are fewer and fewer of them, they added.

Asked about how the crisis could end, another senior Polish official said: Endgame looks like theyve stopped playing poker and started to play Russian roulette.

Lili Bayer and Maria Wilczek contributed reporting.

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Polands Russian roulette with the EU - POLITICO Europe

Friday, 22 October 2021, 7:51 amPress Release: Domino's Pizza

Dominos has gone over to the dark side this Halloween,taking a slice of the spice by releasing its very ownHalloween Pizza Roulette. The new Halloween Pizza Roulettewill be available from this Monday (25 October).

Forone week only, brave customers can take the Pizza Roulettechallenge and treat themselves to Dominos ReaperChilli Sauce for free* on any pizza on the menu.

Thetrick? Were not going to tell you which slice itshiding on!

Pizza Roulette isnt a new concept,but its one that we know Kiwis love. Thats why,this Halloween, were launching our very own PizzaRoulette and were turning up the heat by using thehottest chilli in the world, the Carolina Reaper ChilliPepper, Dominos NZ General Manager Cameron Toomeysaid.

Surprisingly fruity and sweet, the CarolinaReaper Chilli Pepper tops out on the Scoville Scale at ablazing 2.2 million. Thats why, when you selectDominos Pizza Roulette, your pizza comes with a warninglabel!

We know New Zealand is a nation full ofthrill seekers, so why not celebrate Halloween in thehottest way possible? Choosing your next slice becomes awhole new experience when you dont know which one ispossessed with heat. Its sure to give your tastebuds anexperience theyll never forget!

Well besaying RIP to Pizza Roulette on 31 October 2021, sogather your friends (or your enemies), and take thechallenge if you dare!

If youd rather enjoy atreat this Halloween, then download the Dominos Appand enjoy one of seven sweet as deals which will beshared daily from Monday 25 October 2021. No tricks, justtreats.

Dont get ghosted this Halloween getDominos!

*Dominos Pizza Roulette is availablefrom 25 31 October 2021, or until sold out. Customerscan choose any pizza on a classic base from the menu and oneof the slices will come possessed with Reaper ChilliSauce. A themed warning label will be adhered to thebox.

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What The Hell? Domino's Launches Pizza Roulette Just In Time For Halloween | Scoop News - Scoop.co.nz

A cinematographer has become the latest person to die in an accident on a Hollywood film set - with movie production companies likely to review their safety measures in the wake of the tragedy.

Halyna Hutchins, 42, was killed when actor Alec Baldwin discharged a prop firearm on the set of the western movie Rust.

Here we take a look at the safety measures that are in place on US film sets, and some of the high profile deaths that have sent shockwaves through the industry in the past.

What safety measures are in place when guns are used on US film sets?

When firearms are used for a scene there will always be an armourer, a safety officer and a stunt co-ordinator on set, two filmmakers have told The Conversation.

Christopher Gist and Sarah Mayberry, who recently finished filming the psychological thriller Darklands, used real weapons but fired blanks when they wanted to recreate a gunshot.

Blanks are made up of wads of paper, plastic, felt or cotton. However, they can still cause a lot of injury when fired at close range or handled incorrectly.

The filmmakers said they fired blanks in a "very controlled situation, working with a very experienced crew".

Mr Gist and Ms Mayberry said guns, whether fake or replica, are supplied by an armourer.

They wrote: "All of the protocols surrounding gun use are well established. Everything on set around a gun must be treated with an abundance of caution... all cast and crew are briefed multiple times about safety. The police are always notified, as are any neighbours adjacent to the filming location."

The filmmakers highlighted how gunshots can also be recreated using visual effects - with this being a much safer method than firing real bullets or blanks.

What other safety measures need to be taken into account?

Films have a safety officer who will consider elements such as trip hazards and road safety when locations are chosen for a production, Mr Gist and Ms Mayberry said.

When production crews want to film on public land, the local authority will ask for a risk assessment - this can detail where people will park, where toilets will be located, and where equipment will be. It will also consider potential problems, such as what will happen if a particular stunt goes wrong.

The No Film School, a worldwide community of filmmakers and video producers, advises its members to be "fire marshal-compliant" by identifying escape routes from buildings in case there is ever a fire on set.

They also advise filmmakers to "locate and separate circuits" to avoid potential dangers due to blowing a fuse.

The No Film School also advises simple things - such as organising cables and wires so people don't trip over.

What other fatal accidents have there been?

In one of the most high profile deaths, Brandon Lee, son of the iconic martial-arts star Bruce Lee, died while filming a shooting scene for the movie The Crow in 1993.

A blank round fired from a gun had propelled a dummy cartridge from the same weapon. Lee died after it struck him in the abdomen with the same force as if it were a live round.

Shannon Lee, the tragic actor's sister, tweeted after the death of Hutchins to say "no-one should ever be killed by a gun on a film set".

Lee, who now runs an official Twitter account for her brother, wrote in a post: "Our hearts go out to the family of Halyna Hutchins and to Joel Souza and all involved in the incident on 'Rust.'

"No one should ever be killed by a gun on a film set. Period."

In 1984, actor Jon-Erik Hexum was pretending to play Russian roulette with a .44 Magnum on the set of the television series Cover Up when he shot himself in the head with a prop gun blank and died. He had apparently been unaware of the potential danger beforehand.

Outside of gun-related incidents, three actors - two of them children - were killed on the set of Twilight Zone: The Movie when special effects explosions caused a helicopter to crash in 1982.

In 1985, stunt pilot Art Scholl died during the filming of Top Gun. Scholl was performing an aerial stunt when he lost control of the plane and crashed into the Pacific Ocean. He and the plane were never recovered.

In August 2017, stuntwoman Joi Harris was killed on the set of Deadpool 2 in a motorcycle accident.

Read more:

What safety measures are in place on US film sets and what other deaths have there been? - Sky News

Introducing the CHL TV Game of the Week presented by Kubota, which brings a weeklyfree game to CHL TV throughout the 2021-22 regular season. The action starts Tuesday as the Spokane Chiefs visit the Seattle Thunderbirds with puck drop set for 7:05 p.m. Pacific.

To get you ready, here are three reasons why this Pacific Northwest showdown is must-see TV:

In all, the showdown between the Chiefs and Thunderbirds offers a look toward the future with six participants already owned by NHL clubs including four with Seattle and two with Spokane. For the Thunderbirds, that group is headlined by Dallas Stars draftee Conner Roulette, a budding playmaker who despite his lagging size brings plenty of offensive prowess as evidenced by last season when he closed out the abbreviated campaign with 12 points through 11 appearances before later joining Team Canada at the U18s. Returning for 2021-22, Roulette is back where he left off, already with five points to his name through as many games this season. Still, he isnt going it alone with the Thunderbirds as the club also deploys NHL up-and-comers in fellow forward Matthew Rempe (New York Rangers) as well as blue-liner and second-year captain Tyrel Bauer (Winnipeg Jets).

For Spokane, the group of future NHLers is headlined by captain Jack Finley who after being limited to a lone contest a year ago due to injury is ready to rebound and lead his squad. Originally chosen by the Chiefs with the sixth pick in the 2017 WHL Draft, the Tampa Bay Lightning prospect approached point-per-game production as a sophomore in 2019-20 as he posted 19 goals and 38 assists through 61 appearances, while the early signs are he will continue to be an offensive catalyst this year as through his teams first six games he has picked up two goals and four assists. Meanwhile, joining Finley at the forward ranks is 20-year-old centre Bear Hughes, a Washington Capitals selection who brings strength down the middle mixed with a desirable offensive skill set. In 2019-20, Hughes finished seventh in team scoring as he registered 47 points in 61 games, while this season currently sees him leading the squad with eight points through six contests.

Beyond those players already drafted, the matchup features at least three players who are drawing attention from talent evaluators. For the Chiefs, that includes 2003-born goaltender Mason Beaupit, a hulking presence between the pipes who through four outings this season has impressed in coming up with a 1-1-1-0 showing coupled with a 2.45 goals-against average and .914 save percentage. A fourth-round selection by Spokane in the 2018 WHL Draft, Beaupit made 13 total appearances with the club prior to 2021-22 but is expected to take on a greater role this year. Across the ice, the Thunderbirds have a pair of players in right-wing Alessandro Segafredo and defenceman Kevin Korchinski who are earning more looks from the scouting community. A first-round pick from the 2021 CHL Import Draft, the Italian-born Segafredo comes to Seattle after being a top performer in the Swiss junior circuit, while with the Thunderbirds he has been a quick study to the North American game, already with four points through five showings. Meanwhile, Korchinski is a modern, puck-moving rearguard with the ability to push the pace from the back end. Chosen 10th overall by Seattle in the 2019 WHL Draft, Korchinski saw 23 appearances last season in which he collected 10 points, while the new campaign will continue to see him round out the offensive side of his game.

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CHL TV Game of the Week presented by Kubota | 3 Reasons to Watch Chiefs vs. Thunderbirds CHL - Canadian Hockey League