Daily Archives: September 26, 2021

I was introduced to the game of poker at age 21 by my boss in my first job. It was love at first hand, and the passing of time has not dimmed it.

Little did I know at that time, that 20 years later I would be using the same set of probabilistic deduction skills for a living.

Is there any correlation between poker skills and investing success or are such claims hearsay?

There is an interesting SSRN paper written by Yan Lu, Sandra Mortal and Sugata Ray titled Hedge fund Holdem

I do not know if the paper is accurate in its assumptions or not, but what I do know is that both the fields derive heavily from probability, game theory and psychology.

In other words, if you are good at calculating probability, chances are, other things being constant, you would do well in both fields.

In this blog, I will try and share the distinctive similarities, both on upside and down I observed in both fields.

Disposition effect and sunk-cost fallacy

One of the main reasons most people lose money in poker is because they overestimate the strength of their hand without considering probability. Let us say you got a Pocket Rocket (pair of aces). Technically, if you are playing just one opponent, you have great odds (81 percent chance of winning the hand).

But if there are more number of players on table, those odds would reduce. Somebody with a pair of a much lower card may still beat you easily if he or she is able to make three of a kind

A rookie mistake that people do is that they go overboard in the initial rounds of betting and stretch themselves too thin.

This is where the second bias (sunk cost fallacy) kicks in, once you have committed 20-30 percent of your bankroll on this sure thing. It is difficult to bail out even when you know you dont have a winning hand. Stock market is no different. After burning the mid night oil for three months and doing various channel checks, you conclude that you are onto a sure thing. Once you have bet a big portion and stock tanks, the sunk cost fallacy doesnt allow you to bail out and you hold on to a loser.

This disposition works in the opposite direction too. Once you have got a good hand, you should try not to show your excitement. If you over bet and your opponent senses that you have a strong hand, he will simply fold his cards and deny you the chance of making a killing.

Bayes' theorem

If you are a statistics student, you must have heard of Bayes theorem. The reason I am boring you with this technical stuff is that it is relevant in both fields.

The theorem expresses how a degree of belief, expressed as a probability, should rationally change to account for the availability of related evidence.

In simple words, it is calculation of changing probability with addition of new evidence.

Let us say you are solving a murder case of a lady. Preliminary evidence suggests that it is a case of attempted burglary gone awry. Later you learn that the deceased was insured for Rs 5 crore just a year ago and her husband owes money to people.

How the new information changes the probability of this being an open and shut case of burglary and accidental death is Bayesian probability.

Stock market is a live beast, it is an unfolding story. Every new piece of information adds to your understanding of a company and therefore Bayesian probability is at play. Poker is a game where the dealer deals you two cards that tell you your initial odds. He then lays three cards (Flop). This is new information that turns the probability on its head.

After more betting, he shows another card (Turn) again changing the probability matrix upside down.

As if this is not enough after further round of betting he unveils a final card (River) which opens up a Pandoras box of psychological warfare (bluff, deception, body language etc).

Self-discipline and strategy

Another amazing similarity between poker and trading is that majority of participants are just gamblers and adrenaline junkies and therefore handful of them (1-2 percent) with self-discipline and patience account for all the winnings. This is a winner takes all field or as Nasim Taleb would say, EXTREMISTAN.

There is a famous saying in poker: If after 30 minutes into a poker tournament, you dont know who the patsie (sucker) is, it is probably you.

The same holds true for traders with no strategy, no trading journal to record what they are doing. They all end up losing a packet.

Both poker and trading are games of patience; if your urge to seek adrenaline overpowers your resolve and self-discipline, it is game over

Know thyself

Both poker and trading allows its players to be flexible. There are many ways to skin the cat. In trading you can be successful by being an options writer, a trend follower, or a mean reversion trader. The strategy has to suit your personality. Similarly, poker world has scalpers, who would play any hand (regardless of its strength), mathematicians who would calculate each and every probability (Chris Ferguson) or a Gus Hansen (my favourite) who plays more on psychology and game awareness.

In both fields, success lies in realising who you are and then playing to your strengths. A trend follower doing mean reversion trades will mess it up and similarly, Gus Hansen playing by maths would be a disaster. Something like Sehwag trying to play like Dravid or the other way round.

Embrace losses.

Both in poker and trading, you have to learn to embrace losses. You should be aware that this is not a high win-rate game. Just like a trend following trader, on average a poker player would lose 70 percent of his hands and still can end up at top of the table. The entire game is to make sure that losses are small and winnings are windfalls.

Lady luck

I once had a full house and bet everything when there was just one opponent left in the game. I knew that the probability of my opponent having a better hand was negligible. And yet I lost, because he had four of a kind.

In stock markets too, luck plays a big role (especially in your early years). A bad streak can end the career of otherwise skilful traders. Watch the Brad Pitt movie Money ball to see what happened to Billy Beane despite all his at figuring out probabilities.

There are a lot of nuances and sub topics within this broad subject. I am sure I have missed many other vantage points. Poker and investing have many more similarities as both derive their success from a potent combination of psychology, probability and a dash of luck.

(Manish Dhawan is cofounder of Mysticwealth, a SEBI registered investment advisory providing model portfolios in momentum and value investing.)

Originally posted here:

Game theory: What playing poker taught Manish Dhawan about investing - CNBCTV18

Virtue Poker, a decentralized poker platform on Ethereum, has launched the Binance Mysterybox collection ahead of their Celebrity Charity Poker set for September 26 to drive the adoption of NFTs and help the exchange onboard more users.

As per a statement on September 16, participants of the Celebrity Charity Poker will include A-listers in the world of poker and blockchain influencers like Justin Sunthe creator of the Tron blockchain, Hall of Fame (HOF) player, Phil Ivey, Sandeep Nailwalthe co-founder of the interoperable and scalable Ethereum sidechain, Polygon, ConsenSys founder, Joe Lubin, and others.

The Binance Mysterybox collection will present a card in a 52-card deck set out as NFTs.

Part of the mystery box will be the Ace of Spades that Phil digitally signs and comes with a prize of $5k.

Out of this, collectors who hold the winning handcomprising two mystery boxes in every knockout during the Celebrity Event stand to win anywhere between $2.5k and $25k top prize.

Participants would be free to trade their boxes to increase their chances of winning as they assemble the best hands in the secondary market.

Virtue Poker limits participants to collect up to 50 completed hands or 100 mystery boxes, storing them in Binance to be eligible for rewards.

The $2.5k prize can be won by a single or multiple participants holding the winning hand in each knockout.

In cases where there are multiple hands, the prize will be split equally to all winners.

However, only one winner holding the championship knockout hand can win the $25k top prize even if there will be multiple holders of the championship knockout hand.

When this pans out, the team will randomly pick a winner.

Besides, there will be a $10,000 Freeroll tournament accessible to holders of two mystery boxes.

At the same time, Virtue Poker has also partnered with RARA NFT to increase the prizes to the mystery drop and event.

To amplify their chances of winning rewards, participants can acquire RARA tokens as poker chips via Binance.

RARA NFT will announce the official address of their wallet from September 23 to 25.

Users who deposit their poker chips stand to participate in the game. Virtue Poker has said the total RARA tokens sent to the official wallet would be the prize pool.

Like before, holders of all winning hands will win the prize pool. If there is more than one hand, the one who had transferred the most RARA will emerge as the winner.

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Virtue Poker Launches the Binance Mysterybox Collection ahead of Celebrity Charity Poker featuring Justin Sun, Sandeep Nailwal, and Joe Lubin |...

September 25, 2021PokerNews Staff

In 2019, 27 amateurs and 27 of the worlds best pros competed in the biggest buy-in event in history. Now, the Triton Million - A Helping Hand for Charity poker tournament is being released as a 10-episode series on Triton Poker's YouTube Channel.

A total of 54 players stumped up the seven-figure entry fee with 50,000 of each buy-in going to benefit 15 different charities. As a result, this saw 2.7 million going to a plethora of good causes as well as generating a staggering 54 million ($73,993,800) pound prize pool.

Here's a look at five of either the biggest or most interesting hands from the first episode, which can be viewed in full below.

The event couldnt have gone any worse for Tom Dwan, and here he is losing his first big pot of the day against Vivek Rajkumar.

With the blinds at 1,500/3,000/3,000, Dwan opened to 8,000 from the button holding . Rajkumar three-bet to 35,000 with from the small blind, and Elton Tsang four-bet to 100,000 from the big blind holding . Both Dwan and Rajkumar called.

An all-action flop of hit the middle of the table, and all three players checked. The on the turn handed Rajkumar the flush, and he bet 210,000 into the 303,000 pot. Despite holding the nut flush draw, Tsang got out of the way, but Dwan came along for the ride with his top pair, top kicker.

The landed on the river to give Dwan two-pair, but he folded after Rajkumar bet 350,000.

If you ever wondered what would happen if you saw aces versus kings in a 1m buy-in event - youre about to find out.

With the blinds at 1,500/3,000/3,000, Aaron Zhang opened up to 8,000 from first position holding , Paul Phua three-bet to 26,000 from the hijack holding the , Zhang four-bet to 95,000, and Phua called.

The flop fell , and Phua called a 100,000 Zhang c-bet.

With 397,500 in the pot and the on the turn, Zhang slowed down with a check and called when Phua bet 180,000.

The ended the action on the river, and both players checked it down with the meaty pot going the way of Zhang, who would end the episode as the chip leader.

With three final table appearances in seven-figure buy-in events on his resume, Rick Salomon planned an extended stay in London.

It didnt work out that way.

Salomon got it in on a flop of , holding for all the draws in the world, and Andrew Pantling played the role of the vanquisher with for the top set. The draws stayed in the deck, and Salomon became the first player eliminated from the event in the first level.

With blinds at 1,500/3,000/3,000, Dwan limped into the action from the cutoff with 648,000 and . Tsang called from the small blind with 722,000 and , and that brought Timothy Adams into the action from the big blind holding .

Dwan flopped two pair when hit the baize, and he was the first to bet, making it 4,000 to play. Tsang check-raised to 10,000 with the flush draw, Adams folded and Dwan paid to see fourth-street.

Tsang hit his flush on the turn when the landed, and Dwan called a 16,000 Tsang bet. The final card was the to give Dwan a two-pair hand, but the 37,500 bet from Tsang was enough to see Dwans hand enter the muck.

In the build-up to the event, Timofey Kuznetsov waxed lyrical about the good old days when he used to rail the legend that is Dwan. The Russian ended the first episode with his scalp.

Dwan made it 9,000 to play from early position and , Adams called with from the button, Igor Kurganov also called with a pair of deuces from the small blind before Kuznetsov squeezed out a raise from the big blind, making it 52,500 to play with . Only Dwan called.

The flop was a fiery one with the handing Kuznetsov top pair and Dwan the flush draw. Kuznetsov bet 40,000, and Dwan raised to 132,000 (leaving 250,000 behind), and then called when Kuznetsov put him all-in.

Dwan had nine outs to save his tournament life.

Neither the nor the were part of the rescue package, and Dwan became the first professional to leave the tournament, also in the first level.

Coverage of the 1,050 Triton Million Charity event continues at - million.triton-series.com.

*Images courtesy of Triton Poker/Joe Giron

See original here:

Five Big Hands from Episode #1 of the 1050000 Triton Million Charity Event - PokerNews.com

September 23, 2021Jon Sofen

No arrests have been made following Mike Matusow's 2021 WSOP stake package release, but the Markup Police is on the prowl, so stay vigilant.

All kidding aside, Matusow is charging what some consider markup that is too high. His 13-event You Stake package calls for 1.3-1.5 markup (depending on the event), or a 30%-50% spike the buy-ins. So, if you want $1,000 worth of his action, you'd pay $1,300 to cover the markup at 1.3.

Poker player Andrew Barber was one of the first to call out those who charge investors high markup.

Phil Hellmuth was quick to defend his good friend. He claims Matusow won 30 of 31 cash game sessions he personally staked "The Mouth" from 2015 to 2019. The 15-time WSOP bracelet winner is no slouch to receiving heavy criticizing for charging rake that many considered high.

Prior to the start of 2018 World Series of Poker, he released a package calling for 1.8 markup, about as high as you'll see any pro charge.

Earlier this week, he told Barber on Twitter that he's made his You Stake customers over $200,000, and he believes Matusow has also turned a profit for his investors.

Tony Dunst didn't hold back when he discovered Matusow's staking request. The World Poker Tour commentator tweeted in reference to Matusow playing $10k's: "I could retire on selling Mike at even money in those things."

Dunst put his money where his mouth is and placed a wager with Max Silver at even money on Matusow losing in those events.

"You're a nice guy and I've always liked you Mike, I just don't think you're beating high stakes anymore. Nothing personal," Dunst tweeted.

Matusow didn't appreciate the critical comments from the WPT announcer. So, he fired back.

Doug Polk had a different opinion on the markup issue than most others. He isn't focused on if Matusow is a profitable buy at 1.3 or if high markup is scummy. Instead, he's encouraging potential investors to be wise with their money.

"If the product your after is too expensive then don't buy the product! Incredible how humans complain constantly about freedom. If the product is being sold at too high of a price it'll fail, if its succeeding then it isn't too high," Tom Southwick (@TomSouthwick11) tweeted.

"But Doug, what about people who don't know any better and just trust someones 'word' because of who they are. People automatically just respect that word even though it is wrong a lot of the time," Mark LaPiana (@HeyItsMark275) said in response to Polk's tweet.

Excerpt from:

The Muck: Markup Police at it Again Ahead of 2021 WSOP - PokerNews.com

Italy is one of the countries where the game of poker is still booming, despite the difficult years of financial and economic crisis in the world. And the reason is simple: Italians love to play.

Poker in Italy is recognised as a game of skill and Italians are good at playing poker. The first gambling set-up to come in Italy was in the city of Venice in 1638. Baccarat and bingo were first played and invented in Italy. It happened just before the start of the 16th century.

The way to play real money poker games across the country is land-based casinos and online casinos. The biggest and most famous is Casin Municipale di Sanremo which hosted numerous major tournaments, including the European Poker Tour. The Casino di Sanremo has nearly 500 slot machines and a limited number of table games, including poker, blackjack, roulette, both French and American, and Baccarat. There are several poker tournaments that the casino hosts manually. The Casino Sanremo also offers electronic games including video poker, jackpot slots, keno, and electronic roulette.

The other venues featuring local poker rooms in Italy are Casino di Campione and Casino di Venezia. Italy is also famous for its sports betting centres, Milan being the city where there are a large number of betting places.

According to Italian criminal law, gambling is illegal, irrespective of whether the game is organised in a public place or a private club. However, there's a difference between games of luck and games where the outcome depends on the player's skill. Sports betting, lotteries, and some other activities fall into the category of legal and regulated gambling activities.

In Europe, many countries decided to introduce new laws to regulate the poker and gambling area. The sector is currently legal in the Italy and is governed by the governments gambling commission. The gambling sector in Italy is regulated by the Agenzia Dogane e Monopolio di Stato (AAMS), a regular body entity created to set the gambling laws and rules in Italy.

In 2006, Italy changed its gambling laws to be less restrictive in which the games involving skills are no longer illegal and the games of pure luck have also become absolutely controlled.

Italy was the first country to successfully establish poker tax revenues. The country began to control online gambling within the country in 2007, when the Finance Act 2007 was created to legitimize all skill-based card games, including poker. This game regulation legalized the various variants of poker, including not only Texas Hold'em, the famous type of poker, but many other games like video poker or games based on the same rules that were previously prohibited and that depend entirely on pure luck.

Four years later, Italian laws began to allow Italians to play online poker for real money. These new rules also extended to other games including sports betting. With this regulation, the tax regime related to the poker game is based on profits only rather than turnover. The lottery legalized games must pay a flat rate of 20%. The operators who organize sports and horse betting, skill games, and lotteries, must pay a tax of 3% of total tournament buy-ins sold.

The Agenzia Dogane e Monopolio di Stato (AAMS) is responsible to set the gambling laws and rules in Italy. They are responsible for setting licence fees and defining the taxation area of the players and operators must pay. In addition, the regulator body has the right to block and fine any gambling operator that does not follow the laws imposed. The punishment for breaking the law ranges from fines to imprisonment.

AAMS issue licences to any firm that is in the European Economic Area, the servers of online gambling activities providers can be located anywhere.

Non AAMS Casinos are those casinos holding licences from other countries authorities like Maltese (Malta Gaming Authority), UK (Gambling Commission), Swedish (Swedish Gambling Authority) ones. They are still reliable and safe to play.

The rise of Italian players playing poker game in online casinos is impressive. The gambling area has recorded one of its highest growth rates comparing other sectors. However, many Italians gambling players are not happy with the Italian gambling laws and decided to opt-in at international casinos sites that hold other types of licenses.

According to Non-aams.com, the popularity of casinos licensed outside of Italy is growing rapidly due to increased rewards for customers and lack of limits and restrictions.

The fact is the feature where they surely overpower Italian operators burdened with high taxes is bonuses. Non AAMS casinos bonuses are more aggressive they usually have better bonus promotions and offer more free spins to the players.

Disclaimer: Play responsibly. Players must be over 18. For help visit https://www.gamcare.org.uk.

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Poker evolution in Italy: Laws and AMMS - Times of Malta