Daily Archives: September 22, 2021

Apple Faces Pressure Over Workplace Woes And Insufficient Wokeness – The Federalist

Posted: September 22, 2021 at 2:57 am

More than 500 current and former Apple employees have reportedly submitted troubling accounts of verbal abuse, sexual harassment, retaliation, and discrimination in the workplace to an employee-activist group called #AppleToo in the last month.

Apples reputation for privacy and secrecy within the workplace has led to concerns being allegedly dismissed, causing two company employees, Cher Scarlett and Janneke Parrish, to create a website where Apple workers can post their stories of harassment and discrimination online. According to the website, the goal is deprogramming the code of silence at Apple.

Facing increased pressure and unrest, Apple finally addressed employee concerns over pay equity and the companys stance on Texass new pro-life law on Friday. But when Apple CEO Tim Cook spoke in the all-company meeting on Sept. 17, he reportedly took just two questions though there were more from the activist employees.

When we find any gaps at all, which sometimes we do, we close them, Apples Head of HR, Deirdre OBrien, insisted in response to mounting pressure about pay.

Woke employees also wanted to know what Cook and Apple are doing to protect employees from the new pro-life law in Texas that bans abortion after a babys heartbeat can be detected. Cook said the company is looking into whether its possible to jump in the legal fight against the law and assured Texas employees that Apples medical insurance would help cover them if they want to travel to another state for an abortion.

Leftist employees were unsatisfied with Cooks answers, however, in keeping with the trend of activists pushing for corporate wokeness. Parrish, one of those activist employees who runs #AppleToo, told the Times she was unimpressed and that the question she submitted about what concrete steps Apple had taken to ensure that pay gaps were resolved and that more women and people of color were being promoted to leadership roles went unanswered.

We are and have always been deeply committed to creating and maintaining a positive and inclusive workplace, Apple told the Times. But in Silicon Valley, woke corporations can never be woke enough.

Reagan Reese is an intern at The Federalist and a student at Hillsdale College studying rhetoric and public address and journalism. She plays on the varsity softball team and you can follow her on Twitter @reaganreese_.

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How Did We Lose Afghanistan? Our Leaders Were Never Willing To Win – The Federalist

Posted: at 2:57 am

We failed to take several steps required to win an armed conflict: identifying an achievable end-state, defining the resources we are willing to expend, and considering the lengths we are willing to go to.

With the defeat in Afghanistan coming at the end of a long line of self-inflicted catastrophes, America appears to be waking up to the notion that our foreign policy is disconnected from reality. As we watch our allies in the Northern Alliance flee the Panjshir valley and head into the mountains for a last-stand struggle against the Taliban an enemy we spent thousands of lives and trillions of dollars fighting its time for some much needed introspection.

Those of us who served in Americas continuous stream of counterterrorism adventures and nation-building interventions have long been suspect of U.S. foreign policy. While busy with the daily dirty work of warfighting and dying, we could see the disconnect between the situation on the ground and the focus groupdriven rhetoric of the generals and foreign policy establishment back home. It was like there were two worlds. Ours was noisy, bloody, and chaotic, encompassing a very real battle between good and evil. Theirs was diverse, inclusive, and superficially rational composed almost entirely of PowerPoint fantasies reinforced by government stenographers posing as journalists.

What began as a robust response to the deadly terrorist attacks on 9/11 was quickly redirected and emasculated by a ruling elite with their own agendas none of which included the safety, sovereignty, or national security of our beloved America. At some point, the smart people in Washington D.C. decided that our Islamic extremist enemies were actually oppressed BIPOCs suffering under colonizing American commandos, and we were ordered to stop brutalizing them. This epiphany was unanimously recognized by our ruling elites through their lens of magical thinking, as Thaddeus McCotter described our foreign policy establishments disconnected reality in a superb essay.

Yet the war machine could not be stopped. There was too much money to be made, laundered among the donor class of the military-industrial complex and nongovernmental organizations, and subsequently funneled into political donations for the uniparty. The war, the elites decided, just needed to be nicer, more diverse, and less lethal.

Americans now need to ask the key question: How, exactly, did we lose an armed conflict to a 7th-century religious cult?

We failed to take several steps required to win an armed conflict: identifying an achievable end-state, defining the resources we are willing to expend, and considering the lengths we are willing to go to.

First, before committing to armed conflict, a nation must identify an achievable and specific end-state. It must decide what success would look like. This kind of decision-making is done at the national level, by the president and his national security advisor, in consultation with the Cabinet-level national security principals and, in some situations, Congress.

Next, as a nation, we need to establish what type and amount of resources we are willing to expend in pursuit of this end-state. These resources need to be roughly defined in terms of personnel, equipment, money, casualties, political capital, and reputation. If we dont know what our end-state looks like, and if we do not have sufficient resources to achieve that end-state, then embarking on armed conflict is futile.

Additionally, what are we willing to do to achieve our desired end-state? In World War II, we wanted to defeat the Axis powers and destroy their ability to conduct war. To achieve this, we were willing to do things like drop nuclear weapons on the Japanese civilian population and firebomb the German city of Dresden. A more recent example of will, or rather the lack thereof, was the Battle of Mogadishu, which is depicted in the movie Black Hawk Down. The U.S. mission to capture and kill Somali Militia leader Mohamed Farrah Aidid was cancelled by President Clinton after an October 1993 raid resulted in the deaths of 19 American servicemen and 315 Somali militiamen. The Clinton administration was mortified by the casualty counts as well as the optics of wounding an additional 812 people. Clinton decided the United States no longer had the will to capture or kill Aidid.

Will is not just what we are willing to do to our enemy, it is also what we are willing to do to ourselves. As we have seen already in America, our extended war resulted in drastically diminished civil liberties, an increasingly corrupt national security apparatus that has turned inward on ordinary Americans, and a veteran suicide rate of more than 20 men and women per day a heavy price for any republic.

Time is also a factor. For a nation to succeed in armed conflict, it must have the support of its population. Protracted warfare not only increases the financial cost to the nation but also wears down the population and diminishes its support. The longer an armed conflict continues, the more difficult it is to maintain the will to do what is necessary to achieve victory. Thus, Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu stated in the Art of War, There is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare.

We did not define these above elements in the war in Afghanistan. We failed to identify a realistic end-state. Our will faltered as we vacillated between making Afghanistan a punitive expedition versus a nation-building exercise. Surprisingly, we were willing to commit an almost unlimited amount of resources to the effort, and time only became a consideration as we reached the point of absurdity at 20 years.

Was Afghanistan winnable? Of course it was. Winning is always a choice, but you go to war with the leadership you have, not the leadership you wish you had. Simply put, our leaders decided that winning wasnt their priority.

Instead of defining and holding to an achievable end-state that supported the interests of the American people, someone decided that, following the punitive removal of Mullah Omars Taliban in 2002, Afghanistan could function as a giant ATM. A war-based revenue stream that could provide a continuous flow of money to Washington, D.C.s donor class, which consists of the military-industrial complex, the intelligence community, and the NGO industry.

Sadly, in the end, even though countless ordinary Americans gave their all in Afghanistan, winning and returning home victorious was never in the cards.

Now, after 20 years of war, we have come full circle. We are left with a new and stronger Islamic emirate led by designated terrorists aligned with al-Qaida, the same mortal enemy that attacked us on Sept 11, 2001. Our foreign policy establishment is enraptured in their magical thinking that somehow America will partner with a Taliban government.

Our foreign policy elites think that by dumping truckloads of cash onto their new jihadist partners, they can make diversity and inclusion new Taliban virtues. In their minds, if they can just convince the world to look the other way during the coming genocide, theyll succeed in bringing some murderous savages into the fold of the international diplomatic community.

In southwest Asia, respect and honor are often more important than money. Our bungled departure from Kabul certainly did not win us any respect. We did not have to so willingly bend the knee to our enemies on the way out. We did not have to leave our citizens behind while simultaneously evacuating tens of thousands of unvetted Afghans. We did not need to abandon the National Resistance Front, our former comrades-in-arms, fighting in the mountains of Panjshir, Parwan, and Baghlan. We shouldnt have left that way. It was dishonorable and will come at a cost.

But what to do with Afghanistan next? For now, we are prisoners of the magical group-think of a failed foreign policy establishment, but soon its fantasies will collide with reality. Soon we will have to deal with the jihadist nature of the new Islamic emirate and its benefactors in Pakistan and China. Soon someone will have to figure out a way to contain the Islamic emirate before it becomes a problem again.

It will have to be done without parachuting pallets of taxpayer dollars to shady warlords or committing U.S. forces back into Afghanistan. The corrupt Afghan benefactors of Western cash-based diplomacy have all fled to Dubai with hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars.

However, not everyone in Afghanistans military and leadership has surrendered. The former vice president, now acting president of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh, and Panjshiri leader Ahmad Massoud (son of the late Panjshiri commander Ahmad Shah Massoud) are still in Afghanistan, fighting for their freedom. With them are whats left of the Afghan special forces, commandos from Afghanistans National Directorate of Security, and Panjshiri fighters. Right now, the Taliban, with the help of the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI), are working hard to hunt down and eliminate the last of this resistance.

The Taliban fears the National Resistance Front because they know that the only credible threat to their consolidation of jihadist power comes from the Panjshir. Here is a pro tip from a greybeard Afghanistan vet: If your enemy fears something, its best to give them as much of that thing as you can muster. Perhaps, instead of allowing the Pakistani ISI to exterminate the only Afghans willing to fight for their freedom, we should find a way to support the NRF as both an ally and a regional counterbalance to a dangerous and rising Islamic caliphate. Perhaps we can learn from our previous mistakes and this time, consider what we are willing to do to reach an end-state that serves the actual security interests of the American people.

Max Morton is a retired USMC lieutenant colonel and former CIA paramilitary operations officer. He is a veteran of multiple armed conflicts, revolutions, and contingency operations.

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Scientists May Have Discovered the Cause of Alzheimer’s Disease – Futurism

Posted: at 2:57 am

Image by Getty / Futurism

For years, scientists have been studying how the buildup of toxic molecules in the brain might cause or contribute to Alzheimers disease. But much more difficult has been figuring out what sets off the process that makes those molecules begin to accumulate in the first place.

Now, a team of researchers from Curtin University say that leakage of a toxic compound called beta-amyloid from the bloodstream might be the root problem, according to a mouse study published last week in the journal PLOS Biology. While its not yet clear whether the same process happens in humans, the discovery could give scientists a new way to track or monitor the onset of Alzheimers disease and, perhaps, help them develop new treatments to prevent it.

While we previously knew that the hallmark feature of people living with Alzheimers disease was the progressive accumulation of toxic protein deposits within the brain called beta-amyloid, researchers did not know where the amyloid originated from, or why it deposited in the brain, lead study author and Curtin researcher John Mamo said in a press release.

More specifically, the team found that beta-amyloid, a compound that builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimers thats been long associated with the onset of dementia, is formed outside of the brain, then gets shuttled throughout the bloodstream by lipoproteins.

In the new study, the scientists discovered that those lipoproteins tend to leak, allowing the toxic compounds to reach the brain and start to accumulate. The mice that had higher levels of amyloid production also showed a greater degree of inflammation in the brain, hinting at a link between the compound and the onset of neurodegenerative disease.

This blood-to-brain pathway is significant because if we can manage the levels in blood of lipoprotein-amyloid and prevent their leakage into the brain, this opens up potential new treatments to prevent Alzheimers disease and slow memory loss, Mamo added.

It would take confirming that the same link exists in humans before anyone can talk about new Alzheimers treatments. But Mamo suggests in the press release that specific drugs or even changes to ones diet could reduce the amount of amyloid in the bloodstream, potentially helping to prevent or at least delay Alzheimers and thats big news in the fight against a particularly horrible disease.

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Futuristic BMW electric car is a combination of i8 and i Vision Circular – BMWBLOG

Posted: at 2:57 am

BMW has a long history of showing off incredibly cool concept cars and then never putting them into production. Remember the killer Hommage Concepts (3.0 CSL, M1, and 328) or the awesome Vision M NEXT? Yea, none of those even sniffed production. However, there was one BMW concept car that actually did head to production looking surprisingly true to its original concept form the BMW EfficientDynamics Concept, which became the BMW i8.

This new render combines the BMW i8 with the brands latest concept car (that will also not become a production car), the BMW i Vision Circular, and what you get is a concept that looks surprisingly similar to the original EfficientDynamics concept.

The BMW i Vision Circular was a shocking car when it was first debuted just a couple of weeks ago. It showed off styling so odd it made the i3 look like a 3 Series diesel and it brought with it an interior that looked more like a Phillip K. Dick acid trip than anything else. While it was designed with some genuinely clever and forward thinking ideas, its actual styling left a lot of BMW enthusiasts wanting for something better looking. Turns out, combining its ideas with the BMW i8 does the trick.

While this render looks a lot like the BMW EfficientDynamics concept, its front end is from the BMW i Vision Circular. For example, it features the latter cars combined grille/headlight combination. Rather than having two separate things; kidney grilles and headlights; it actually just blends them into one unit. While it looks bizarre on the i Vision Circular, it actually works on this.

The best part of the BMW i Vision Circular was its impressive sustainability, thanks to its extreme use of either recycled or recyclable materials. Tons of second-life materials were used in the i Vision Circular and any material that wasnt second-life could be recycled into second-life material in the future, making it an incredibly sustainable car. However, its quirky looks detract from that message.

If BMW had wrapped all of that sustainable goodness into a package that looked as cool as this, many more BMW enthusiasts would be on board with the future.

[Rendering by @superrenderscars]

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The Story of the Pierce-Arrow Silver Arrow, America’s First Futuristic Concept Car – autoevolution

Posted: at 2:57 am

The Great Depression hit the United States in 1929. By 1933, one in four Americans was unemployed and former millionaires were counting pennies. With no government-sponsored work relief available, it was all doom and gloom. And the automakers weren't doing any better either.

Production had dropped rather dramatically in just a few years. In 1929, Americans had bought more than four million cars. In 1932, this figure had dropped to only a million. While Ford had to slash yearly production from more than 1.5 million to only 300,000, premium carmakers like Peerless and Marmon disappeared altogether. And many more companies declared bankruptcy by the end of the 1930s.

Pierce-Arrow was one of the luxury firms that refused to give up. Established in 1901, the Buffalo-based company had become a status symbol in just a couple of decades. Favored by Hollywood stars and tycoons, Pierce-Arrow automobiles were also popular among royal families the world over. But things started to go south in the late 1920s.

Acquired by Studebaker in 1928, Pierce-Arrow started to leak money as the Great Depression hit. But unlike most of its rivals, it refused to develop and offer a lower-priced car. The Buffalo-based firm went in a completely different direction and opted to build its most opulent vehicle yet, the Silver Arrow.

Conceived at a time when Piece-Arrow was losing millions, the Silver Arrow was penned by Phil Wright, who was still in his 20s, and immediately approved by Harley Earl. With fully integrated fenders and headlamps mounted high with the line flowing up and back past the doors, the Silver Arrow resembled no other car from the company. And no other car available at the time, for that matter.

The car also featured a few groundbreaking aero features, such as flush-fitting rear fender skirts, recessed door handles (common on modern cars), and a sharp sloping rear section. The cabin was flanked by a V-shaped windscreen in the front and a slit-like window in the rear. The latter was pretty useless in terms of visibility, but it added to the car's futuristic, Batmobile-like styling.

Pierce-Arrow's out-of-the-box thinking continued with the placement of the spare wheels. Most cars of the era had spares mounted on the rear (attached to the trunk box) or placed on the front fenders, which were individual units, separated from the body. The Silver Arrow had them hidden in lockers in the impressively long front fenders. These could be opened by remote controls in the dash.

Speaking of which, thanks to a 462-cubic-inch (7.6-liter) V12 engine rated at 175 horsepower, the Silver Arrow was fast enough to turn that speedo to 115 mph (185 kph). Despite a curb weight of 5,700 pounds (2,585 kg)!

Pierce-Arrow rushed to have five examples of the Silver Arrow ready for the 1933 New York Auto Show. But with a price tag of $10,000, about 25% more than the most expensive Cadillac of the era (the equivalent of more than $200,000 in 2021), it essentially remained a show car.

It could very well be America's first-ever concept vehicle, a feat usually assigned to the Buick Y-Job design study of 1938.

Three of the five original Silver Arrow cars have soldiered on to this day and they're among the most expensive American classics. They don't come up at auction often, but when they do, they change hands for more than $2 million. It's not only the most sensational car designed in the early 1930s, it's also America's first futuristic concept vehicle.

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NEOM – a futuristic city that promises surreal is coming up in Saudi – Happytrips

Posted: at 2:57 am

A futuristic city in Saudi Arabias Tabuk Province is a promising destination for sustainability, and technology. Called NEOM, meaning new future, it is a forward-thinking city that is supposedly nothing like the world has ever seen before. It is being called a revolution in urban living, with an immense potential for tourism. The city is going to be completely powered by renewable energy sources.

The city is a promising step towards the future of our world. It promises to leave behind all the trepidations of urban living we currently face. So yes, a city that is planned, without traffic, waste, or pollution. NEOM further promises a place that is going to allow easy access to essential resources and amenities to its residents. It is being reported that the city is going to be in the shape of a long thin line, and it will be a space for both human and nature to co-exist. It will do-away with the idea of suburban cities we have today, which encroaches into the natural world.

A smart city by all means, NEOM is going to take the term even more seriously than any other city has done previously. It is going to be technologically driven, which means that everything from traffic to live data for hazardous situations will be monitored. So, with the power of technology, a road accident could be avoided.

With efficiency as the key motivator, the city is going to redefine what it means to be living in an urban space.

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Neurocracy: futuristic murder-mystery fiction as told through Wikipedia – The Guardian

Posted: at 2:57 am

On first click, Omnipedia feels like the shadow-sister of Wikipedia: empty white space with the occasional image, marked up by slim black text and iconic blue hyperlinks. But we are on a different internet now. This fictional encyclopedia is essentially the narrator of Neurocracy, which is part game, part murder-mystery novella and part postmodern exploration of how we take in stories and information. It is a labyrinth of text the reader, or player, navigates a 2049 version of our world by clicking hyperlinks. Having done some exploring, I believe its best to go in totally blind, though I will say that the central mystery concerns the death of the man who launched Omnipedia in the wake of Wikipedia, a character named Xu Shaoyong.

We click through from one fictional entry to the next, learning gradually that this future world is full of threats, from the presence of a civilisation-upending disease to binaural implants that track and enhance our experiences online, all the way down to dating shows that end in shocking loss of life. It feels unnervingly close to the internet as we know it, but with subtle differences that amount to clever environmental storytelling. For example, the GDPR cookie-tracking pop-up thats now the doorman at the gate of every website includes both familiar text about data and consent, and a note about our montages being tracked our emotional state, as tracked by an algorithm.

The storytelling style is rather like a Choose Your Own Adventure book, but it rejects linearity in favour of allowing the reader-player to intuit themselves through the web of information. The online rabbit-hole becomes a literary device. Theres even an option, as there is on Wikipedia, to start on a random page. This is ambitious and confident writing there is a sureness here that the machine of this mystery works so well that you can walk into the maze from any angle, and still find what you are looking for.

Omnipedia is an unreliable narrator we are encouraged to look at the edit logs of each wiki page, to see what information is new and what has been deleted. This feature of Wikipedia, programmed into the encyclopedia for transparency, is used here as a postmodern storytelling tool, and it provides a strange kind of tension. Revealing what is new information and old information on the search for the truth behind Shaoyongs death injects drama into the static, familiar space of a website.

New material has been added to Neurocracy every week, and its storytelling method is compelling. For me, the best way to engage is with a notebook, marking down my findings but there is a thriving Discord community sleuthing away too. What is more powerful than the murder mystery, however, is the depiction of a world that feels uncannily close to our reality. There is a sense in each entry that what we see there could be just around the corner. This is what excellent science fiction does: it holds up a mirror to culture as it is, and shows us what is just creeping up behind us.

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The View From Inspiration4’s Toilet Is Absolutely Incredible – Futurism

Posted: at 2:57 am

We officially found the toilet with the best view.Number One Throne

SpaceXs historic Inspiration4 mission launched like clockwork last night, kicking off the first-ever all-tourist spaceflight.

And, as promised, the views out of the massive cupola,which is a huge glass dome replacing the Crew Dragon spacecrafts port normally used to dock to the International Space Station, are breathtaking.

A video uploaded by SpaceX to Twitter shows the Earth slowly rotating hundreds of miles below an incredible sight, especially considering the dome is right abovethe small spacecrafts only toilet.

Its literally a hundred-million dollar view. In other words, the view while the crew is doing number two is truly number one.

SpaceX was able to remove the protective cover around the dome roughly twenty minutes into the flight, around the time Crew Dragon was gaining altitude to insert itself into a stable orbit.

While the crew will makes a doo with an incredible view, they will fortunately have a curtain shielding them from their compatriots.

Its not a ton of privacy, billionaire funder and mission commander Jared Isaacman told Insider in July. But you do have this kind of privacy curtain that cuts across the top of the spacecraft, so you can kind of separate yourself from everyone else.

And that also happens to be where the glass cupola is, he added. So, you know, when people do inevitably have to use the bathroom, theyre going to have one hell of a view.

READ MORE: SpaceX Crew Dragon cupola provides awe-inspiring view of the Earth from space [CNET]

More on the launch: SpaceXs Inspiration4 Already Blasted Past Jeff Bezos Highest Point

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Doctors Intrigued by Man Who Jizzed Out of Butthole – Futurism

Posted: at 2:57 am

Scientists were puzzled by a bizarre case stdy: a 33-year-old male with a history of illicit drug use whod been experiencing a substantial amount of sperm passage from his rectum with ejaculation for the past two years, according to study titled A Curious Case of Rectal Ejaculation,published last month in the Cureus Journal of Medical Science.

In crude terms, the unfortunate patient was jizzing out of his butt.

The man had experienced five days of testicular pain, doctors said, noting a substantial amount of urine and sperm coming from his rectum.

A CT scan of the mans pelvis later revealed he was experiencing a chronic case of rectourethral fistula, an extremely rare condition in which theres a new anatomical connection between the urethra and rectum.

These cases are usually caused by other conditions such as prostate cancer, rectal cancer, surgery, or severe trauma. The researchers note that a large number of cases have occurred during times of war.

In this case, the unusual passage caused sperm to make its way out of the rectum rather than its usual exit, the urethra.

The cause wasnt immediately clear. The man denied having undergone abdominal surgeries, rectal manipulation and penetration, or rectal trauma, according to the study.

But, as it later turned out, the patient did spend three weeks in a comatose state thanks to a combination of cocaine and phencyclidine (better known as PCP, or angel dust) use two years before becoming symptomatic. The Foley catheter, a flexible tube used to drain urine in hospitalized patients, may have caused significant trauma at the time, the researchers suggest.

The team was fortunately able to seal the hole. They also used a catheter inserted above the pubic region to temporarily allow the man to relieve himself.

In the end, the patient made an almost perfect recovery.

So whats the takeaway? For one thing, stay away from illicit drugs so you dont end up in a comatose state.

And for health care practitioners, the case also highlights the importance of provider mindfulness when utilizing seemingly benign therapies such as Foley catheters, according to the researchers.

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Flying cars are coming to LA. But will they solve traffic? | Greater LA – KCRW

Posted: at 2:57 am

Did you know The Future may be only a few short years away? Did you know that you might soon see actual flying cars in the skies over Los Angeles? And that the city has a goal to have tens of thousands of them zipping around?

In December, Mayor Eric Garcettis office announced the creation of an Urban Air Mobility Partnership, a new public-private merger with Hyundai to get low-noise, electric aircraft flying in our local airspace by 2023. The partnership says it will be working through safety and infrastructure issues, including figuring out the logistics for a vertiport where these things can take off and land.

A dreamy Hyundai promo features near-future travel in LA and San Francisco, with special attention to how bad car traffic is and how you can rise above it. Video byCES 2020 Hyundai/YouTube.

Garcetti is very bullish on flying cars, though its not clear whether the citys dedication to urban air mobility (UAM) will change when and if he decamps to India.

In late April, Garcetti spoke at a House Subcommittee hearing on aerospace innovation, where he made the sales pitch for LA as a leader in advanced aerial mobility (AAM). Its been a hub for the aerospace industry for more than half a century, so flying cars extend that destiny.

For this technology, the sky is literally the limit. And it has the potential to reduce emissions, to connect communities, and to grow our economies, he said. We need to make sure that AAM doesnt create flyover highways accessible only to those with the economic means without creating more sprawl. We know that well in Los Angeles, where traffic is among the worst in our country, and our air quality has been too, even though weve made huge strides.

This futurist optimism is not held by everyone.

We have this technical term in transportation that I'm going to use. So if you need a definition, just let me know it: This sounds to me like bullshit.

Thats UCLA urban planning professor Michael Manville gently pointing out that the transportation industry is full of promises and timelines self- driving cars, electric vehicles, high-speed rail.

It's just the beauty of technology that doesn't exist yet. You can say anything about it, right? It's, Oh, yeah, it's gonna be affordable, and we're gonna have this many vehicles in seven years, he said. Give me a break. It just doesn't work that way.

Will flying cars arrive on time? Will they deliver the clean, equitable future weve been promised by sci-fi? Or is it all just the 20th century transportation mistakes all over again, but just a little higher up?

Busy skies ahead

You might be surprised to know just how big this industry is.

There are dozens of companies around the world trying to break into this space with their own version of the flying car. Some look like big quadcopter drones, some look like Cessnas with a bunch of extra propellers. There are electric take-off-and-landing (e-VTOL) vehicles. Some are designed to be piloted, some autonomous.

There are big companies like Airbus and Boeing, and little companies youve never heard of with names like Joby and Wisk and Lilium. Los Angeles is partnering with both Hyundai and a startup named Archer.

The industry sees this ramping up over a decade or more, even if the mayors office touts flyers by 2023. In the early years, itll be expensive to fly, but the goal is to bring the price-per-ride down so that people fly regularly as a rideshare. The idea of people owning their own flying car is not a significant part of the business model. Within the city, its like Lyft. But some startups are also looking to serve as regional connectors, flying from Silverlake to Palm Springs, for example.

The citys UAM blueprint is based on a report called the Principles of the Urban Sky, which LA put together with the World Economic Forum. It estimates, among other things, that well have 23,000 vehicles in the air by the year 2030, and that a ride will be about $30 a pop.

Billions and billions of dollars are flowing into this industry, from hedge funds and people like Google founder Larry Page. So, there are a lot of people who really want to see flying cars in our near future. And not just air taxis. There are all kinds of other proposed applications for these things: regional or rural flights, transporting cargo, hovering ambulances or troop carriers. Even racing.

This is an industry estimated to be worth $1.5 to $3 trillion by 2040.

UAM companies and boosters say flying cars can reduce traffic, provide affordable mobility for everybody, and create a less polluted environment.

The UAM industry also says the vehicles will be much quieter than helicopters, but potential noise complaints are just one of the hurdles theyre dealing with. Theres also safety related to a bunch of aircraft flying over dense urban areas. Airspace belongs to the FAA, so there are struggles, or more charitably, intense conversations, over whether the city, the state, or Washington will decide how these things will use the skies.

Will they solve traffic?

While the technocrats envision a total redesign of city infrastructure, airspace, and transportation to make way for UAM, for the LA driver, it all boils down to one question: Will flying cars actually make traffic go away?

Susan Shaheen is a mobility expert at Berkeley whos studied autonomous vehicles, carsharing, and the environment. She and many others think that highways in the sky will behave like highways on the ground: The notion that if you create more capacity, it'll just fill up, and we've seen that with highway building.

Its induced demand in the skies: If everyones flying around and the highways open up a little, people will just move back to cars because theyre cheaper and now theres not traffic slowdowns, which then creates congestion.

Hyundais Pam Cohn says we shouldnt think of flying cars solving the problems of traffic alone.

UAM has been called the ultimate congestion buster, as have autonomous ground vehicles, as have micro-mobility, she says. And from our perspective, the answer is actually that all of them need to come together in order to beat congestion.

This makes sense, but its also breakfast-cereal logic. You know how commercials for Lucky Charms say part of a balanced breakfast? Meaning its healthy if you also eat a grapefruit? Thats what the UAM industry is saying: Flying cars are part of a balanced transportation breakfast, along with public transit and bikes and regular cars. But whether the flying car is good or bad for transportation whether its a grapefruit or a bowl of brightly colored sugary crap that remains to be seen.

Hyundais vision of multimodal transportation includes flying cars, self-driving living rooms, and a vertiport where youll have a selection of transportation options and, probably, an overpriced latte. Credit: CES 2020 Hyundai/YouTube.

I think in the future, there's an opportunity for us to really rethink how we shape cities and how we develop cities. And I think that that might be where you get to the congestion reduction, says Dan Dalton, vice president of Global Partnerships at a Bay Area UAM startup called Wisk.

But in the near term, I think it's more about how do we impact individuals individually, versus trying to restructure entire traffic flows?

In other words, urban air mobility is good if you need to get across town quickly, or if you want to avoid rush-hour, or if youve got to get to the bar for happy hour.

There is so much money invested in a flying car future that its hard to imagine it not coming to pass in some way. Not even here and already too big to fail. If creating highways in the skies is the goal, whats actually good for us earth-dwellers may take a back seat.

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Flying cars are coming to LA. But will they solve traffic? | Greater LA - KCRW

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