Daily Archives: September 1, 2021

The past, present, and future of AI in financial services – Finextra

Posted: September 1, 2021 at 12:24 am

As the use cases for AI in financial services continue to grow and deliver value for organizations and customers alike, Id like to provide some insight on where I think the technology is delivering most value at the moment, and also where I think we are headed. Firstly, though, a little on how far weve come.

Many people dont realize that AI has been around since the 1950s. Models like linear regression, support vector machines, and many more have been used for decades. The application of traditional and novel algorithmic design choices continues to unlock real value in financial services.

Deep learning has also been around for a long time, but use cases only gained traction in the mid-2000s as datasets and computational power expanded enough to showcase its true potential. As financial services use cases evolved, deep learning became a key tool to solving problems we otherwise could not accomplish with more rudimentary machine learning models.

Today, we are seeing a lot of investment in neural network-based models, totaling billions of parameters, and being trained on multi-billion point datasets. Compared to first-generation models, these models are computationally expensive and highly complex. The ability to train models of this size, with increasing ease, shows how far technology has come.

Competition, collaboration and customer experience

The computational hardware and the advent of increasingly powerful GPUs is expanding the boundary for larger neural networks being trained on massive datasets. All of this advancement is paying off for banks, consumers and the fintech ecosystem at large. Creative solutions from third parties, fintechs, and challenger banks are solving tough problems in the financial services sector, which is pushing incumbent banks to challenge the challengers and harness the power of AI in the products and services they offer to their customers. One thing incumbents have over their agile rivals, however, is troves of data, which is the lifeblood of AI. Knowing how to harness this data is perhaps the key challenge incumbents face, which is naturally leading to increased collaboration with fintechs and third-party data specialists.

Customers are greatly benefitting from the current competitive environment on both the corporate and retail banking sides. Personal finance is a great example of the latter, as AI now allows consumers to have a personal assistant for their own finances, democratizing access to advisory services.

While chatbots have existed for a number of years, it is only recent advancements that have enabled more compelling use cases. From traditional rule-based bots to research in deep learning based generative model based bots, we have seen tremendous advancement in chat-bot quality. Neural network-based chatbots, for example, can provide an easy interface for users to get spending advice, understand their balance and spending, and get insight into transaction details.

With the advent of multi-billion parameter knowledge models, finetuned on personal finance data, the performance and usability of chatbots is better than ever, with most capable of delivering detailed account insights. The increase in the move towards digital channels brought about by the pandemic has also created a wealth of data on which models can be trained, further improving personal finance products and services.

These use cases have tangible and immediate benefits for both banks and consumers. Customers no longer have to spend time waiting in line to speak to customer services representatives when they know exactly the information they need and how to access it via automated channels. Meanwhile, banks can improve customer experience and reduce overheads tied to their customer support cost-centers.

Looking to the future

Over the next few years, I believe there will be an increase in data-sharing between banks and fintechs. The data banks hold is sensitive and highly safeguarded, but improvements in federated learning and synthetic data generation methods will allow partnerships between those developing models, and those holding the data, to flourish.

The next area is natural language processing (NLP). As mentioned above, there have been huge advances in massive billion parameter neural network-based architectures trained on multi-billion point datasets. From these, there are countless possibilities for transfer learning and knowledge distillation on more specific tasks. One only needs to look at the incredible use cases enabled by GPT-3 to understand the potential of such models.

Another area where I believe data and AI will create opportunities is in providing access to credit through leveraging alternative data. Using such data, banks can begin to provide services to the credit invisible, unlocking financial support for those without traditional credit histories, providing a fairer environment for consumers to gain access to capital.

In a similar vein, an area that I believe will see significant investment is algorithmic fairness and the push for elimination of algorithmic bias in predictive and decision-making models. Increasingly, banks will be required to understand and explain how and why decision-making models arrive at certain outcomes, particularly if they negatively affect certain groups or individuals.

AI can often be maligned by those who believe every advancement will move us closer to the decimation of the job market or even a more outlandish science fiction scenario. But AI is increasingly being used for good across industries, from healthcare and environmental modeling to financial services. Data is the most effective asset we have in the fight against inefficiency, inequality and injustice and AI is the means by which we will unlock its true potential.

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The past, present, and future of AI in financial services - Finextra

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Illinois Tech Research Wants AI to ID Online Extremists – Government Technology

Posted: at 12:23 am

Before Patrick Crusius killed 23 people in a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, in 2019, he posted a manifesto of white nationalist and anti-immigrant rhetoric on 8chan, an Internet message board. Before John Earnest shot up a synagogue outside San Diego, he posted an anti-Semitic open letter on 8chan and tried to livestream the attack on Facebook. Before Brenton Tarrant killed 51 people in Christchurch, New Zealand, he shared a 74-page manifesto about the white genocide conspiracy theory on Twitter and 8chan before livestreaming one of his crimes on Facebook.

Typical of domestic terrorists and violent extremists today, each of these culprits was active on social media, leaving online records of words and thoughts related to their crimes. Now building upon military tactics to locate terror threats online, researchers at the Illinois Institute of Technology think machine learning and artificial intelligence could turn these social media posts into breadcrumb trails for governments and investigators to identify anonymous accounts.

In a paper co-authored by assistant professors from Illinois Tech and the University of Nebraska, graduate students Andreas Vassilakos and Jose Luis Castanon Remy combined Maltego software, an application in the digital forensics platform Kali Linux, with a process used by the military called open source intelligence (OSINT). With Maltego, they compiled various social media posts on Twitter, 4chan and Reddit and did a link analysis to find the same entity appearing in more than one place for instance connecting a Twitter feed to a name in online court documents.

One problem with the manual process: Its highly time-consuming, and there are already too few people doing those jobs. There are 464,420 job openings nationwide in the cybersecurity field, public and private sector combined, according to cyberseek.org. Dawson said his research team is in the process of coding the AI and machine learning to automate some of the work of scraping and link analysis, and he mentioned domestic terrorism and gang activity as possible use cases.

What were trying to do is find a way to make this fully open source and available to anyone who wants to do it, namely state and federal government, and have it automated. If we have a domestic terrorism event, lets create an intelligence profile of this event. This profile can be created from tweets and stuff like that, so weve created the process, and now were continuing to use AI and machine learning to further automate this, he said. You could take this technology and identify who these people are and go to these entities even before something happens.

In order to mitigate the problem, you have to automate a lot of these tasks, he said.

Andrew Westrope is managing editor of the Center for Digital Education. Before that, he was a staff writer for Government Technology, and previously was a reporter and editor at community newspapers. He has a bachelors degree in physiology from Michigan State University and lives in Northern California.

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Illinois Tech Research Wants AI to ID Online Extremists - Government Technology

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AI identifies heart failure patients best suited to beta-blocker treatment – Health Europa

Posted: at 12:23 am

Researchers from the University of Birmingham have used a series of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to identify the heart failure patients most likely to benefit from treatment with beta-blockers.

The findings from the study have been published in The Lancet.

Beta-blockers work predominantly by slowing down the heart, which they do by blocking the action of hormones like adrenaline. Although they are commonly used to treat conditions such as angina, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation (AF), beta-blockers are not suitable for everyone. For example, beta-blockers are not recommended for patients with low blood pressure, metabolic acidosis, or lung disease.

Aiming to integrate AI techniques to improve the care of cardiovascular patients, researchers looked at data involving 15,669 patients with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (low function of the hearts main pumping chamber), 12,823 of which were in normal heart rhythm and 2,837 of which had atrial fibrillation- a heart rhythm condition commonly associated with heart failure that leads to worse outcomes.The research was led by the cardAIc group, a multi-disciplinary team of clinical and data scientists at the University of Birmingham and the University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust.

Using AI techniques to deeply investigate the clinical trial data, the team found that this approach could determine different underlying health conditions for each patient, as well as the interactions of these conditions, to isolate response to beta-blocker therapy.This worked in patients with normal heart rhythm, where doctors would normally expect beta-blockers to reduce the risk of death, as well as in patients with AF where previous work has found a lack of effectiveness. In normal heart rhythm, a cluster of patients (who had a combination of older age, less severe symptoms, and lower heart rate than average) was identified with reduced benefit from beta-blockers.Conversely, in patients with AF, the research found a cluster of younger patients with lower rates of prior heart attack but similar heart function to the average AF patient who had a substantial reduction in death with beta-blockers (from 15% to 9%).

The study used data collated and harmonised by the Beta-blockers in Heart Failure Collaborative Group, a global consortium dedicated to enhancing treatment for patients with heart failure. The research used individual patient data from nine landmark trials in heart failure that randomly assigned patients to either beta-blockers or a placebo. The average age of study participants was 65 years, and 24% were women. The AI-based approach combined neural network-based variational autoencoders and hierarchical clustering within an objective framework, and with detailed assessment of robustness and validation across all the trials.

The researchers say that these AI approaches could go further than this research into a specific treatment, with the potential to be applied to a range of other cardiovascular conditions and more.

Corresponding author Georgios Gkoutos, Professor of Clinical Bioinformatics at the University of Birmingham, Associate Director of Health Data Research Midlands, and co-lead for the cardAIc group, said: Although tested in our research in trials of beta-blockers, these novel AI approaches have clear potential across the spectrum of therapies in heart failure, and across other cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular conditions.

Corresponding author Dipak Kotecha, Professor andConsultant in Cardiology at the University of Birmingham, international lead for the Beta-blockers in Heart Failure Collaborative Group, and co-lead for the cardAIc group, added: Development of these new AI approaches is vital to improving the care we can give to our patients; in the future this could lead to personalised treatment for each individual patient, taking account of their particular health circumstances to improve their well-being.

First Author Dr Andreas Karwath, Rutherford Research Fellow at the University of Birmingham and member of the cardAIc group, added: We hope these important research findings will be used to shape healthcare policy and improve treatment and outcomes for patients with heart failure.

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How The United States Army Is Leveraging AI: Interview With Kristin Saling, Chief Analytics Officer & Acting Dir., Army People Analytics – Forbes

Posted: at 12:23 am

The modern warfighter needs to rely on various technologies and increasingly advanced systems to help provide advantages over capable adversaries and competitors. The US Department of Defense (DoD) understands this all too well and must therefore integrate Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning more effectively across their operations to maintain advantages.

Kristin Saling, Chief Analytics Officer & Acting Dir., Army People Analytics

To remain competitive, the US Army has created the Army Talent Management Task Force to address the current and future needs of the war fighter. In particular, the Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Team shapes the creation and implementation of a holistic Officer/NCO/Civilian Talent Management System. This system has transformed the Army's efforts to acquire, develop, employ, and retain human capital through a hyper-enabled data-rich environment and enables the Army to dominate across the spectrum of conflict as a part of the Joint Force. LTC Kristin Saling is an integral part of getting the Army AI ready and shared her insights with us for this article. She will also be presenting at an upcoming AI in Government event where she will discuss where the US Army currently stands on its data collection and AI efforts, some of the challenges they face, and a roadmap for where the DoD and Army is headed.

What are some innovative ways youre leveraging data and AI to benefit the Army Talent Management Task Force?

LTC Kristin Saling: We are leveraging AI in a number of different ways. But one of the things were doing that most people dont think about is leveraging AI in order to leverage AI and by that I mean were using optical character recognition and natural language processing to read tons and tons of paper documents and process their contents into data we can use to fuel our algorithms. Were also reading in and batching tons of occupational survey information to develop robust job competency models we can use to make recommendations in our marketplace.

On the other end, were leveraging machine learning models to predict attrition and performance for targeted retention incentives. We have partnered with the Institute for Defense Analysis to field the Retention Prediction Model Army (RPM-A) which generates an individual prediction vector for retention for every single Active Army member. Were developing the Performance Prediction Model Army (PPM-A) as a companion model to use a number of different factors, from performance to skills crosswalked with market demand, to identify the individuals the Army most wants to keep. These models used in tandem and informed by a number of retention incentive randomized controlled trials will provide a powerful toolkit for Army leaders to provide the most likely to succeed incentive menus to the personnel likely to attrition that the Army most wants to keep.

How are you leveraging automation at all to help on your journey to AI?

LTC Kristin Saling: We are looking at ways to employ Robotic Process Automation throughout the people enterprise. RPA is an unsung hero when it comes to personnel processes and talent management, especially in a distributed environment. We can automate a huge portion of task tracking, onboarding, leave scheduling, and so forth, but Im particularly looking at it in terms of data management. Were migrating a huge portion of our personnel data from 187 different disparate systems into a smaller number of data warehouses and enterprise systems, and this is the perfect opportunity to use RPA to ensure that we have data compatibility and model ready datasets.

How do you identify which problem area(s) to start with for your automation and cognitive technology projects?

LTC Kristin Saling: We do a lot of process mapping and data mapping before we start digging into a project. We need to understand all the different parts of the system that our changes are going to effect. And we revisit this frequently as we develop an automation solution. Sometimes the way were developing the solution renders different parts of the system obsolete and we need to make sure were bypassing them appropriately with the right data architecture. Sometimes there are some additional things we need to build because of where the information generated by the new automation needs to be fed. Its just important for us to remember that nothing we build truly stands alone, that its all part of a larger system.

What are some of the unique opportunities the public sector has when it comes to data and AI?

LTC Kristin Saling: The biggest opportunities I think we have (in the Army at least) are that we have extremely unique and interesting problem sets and applications, and we also have an extremely large and innovative workforce. While we have a number of challenges, we also have a lot of really talented people joining our workforce who were drawn here by the variety of applications we have to solve and some of the unique data sets we have to work with.

What are some use cases you can share where you successfully have applied AI?

LTC Kristin Saling: Successfully applying AI is a tricky question. Weve created successful AI models, but applying them becomes extremely difficult when you consider the ethics of taking actions on the information were generating. The first I can cite is the STARRS program Studies to Assess Readiness and Resilience in Service members. Its an AI model in development that identifies personnel at the highest risk for harmful behaviors, particularly suicide. Taking that information and applying it in an ethical way that enables commanders and experts to enact successful interventions is extremely difficult. We have a team of scientific experts working on this problem.

Can you share some of the challenges when it comes to AI and ML in the public sector?

LTC Kristin Saling: The availability of good data is a challenge. We have a lot of data, but not all of it is good data. We also have a lot of restrictions on our ability to use data, from the Privacy Act of 1974, the Paperwork Reduction Act, and all of the policies and directives derived from those. Without an appropriate System of Record Notice (SORN) that states how the data was collected and how it is to be used, we cant collect data, and that SORN significantly limits how that data can be used. The best AI models cant make better decisions on bad data than we can they can just make bad decisions faster. We really have to get at our data problem.

How do analytics, automation, and AI work together at your agency?

LTC Kristin Saling: We see all of these things as solutions in our data and analytics toolkit to improve processes. Everything starts with good data first and foremost, and automation, when inserted in the right places in the process, helps us get to good data. We treat AI as the top end of the progression of analytics descriptive analytics help us see ourselves, diagnostic analytics help us see what has happened over time and potentially why, predictive analytics help us see what is likely to happen, prescriptive analytics recommend a course of action using the prediction, and if you add one more step in decision autonomy, enabling the machine to make the decision instead of just recommending a course of action, you have narrow artificial intelligence. Weve been most successful when weve looked at our data, our analytics, our people, our decision processes, and the environment these operate in as a total system than when weve tried to develop solutions piecemeal.

How are you navigating privacy, trust, and security concerns around the use of AI?

LTC Kristin Saling: Our privacy office, human research protection program, and cyber protection programs do a lot to mitigate some concerns about the use of AI. However, there are still a lot of concerns about the ethical use of AI. To a large portion of the population, its a black box entity or black magic at best, Skynet in the making at worst. The best way for us to combat this is education. Were sending many of our leaders to executive courses on analytics and artificial intelligence, and developing a holistic training program for the Army on data and analytics literacy. I firmly believe when our leaders better understand how artificial intelligence works and walk through appropriate use cases, they will be able to make better decisions about how to ethically employ AI, better trust how we employ it, and ensure that we are preserving privacy and data/cyber security.

What are you doing to develop an AI ready workforce?

LTC Kristin Saling: Our Army AI Integration Center (AI2C - formerly the Army AI Task Force) has established an education program called AI Scholars, where about 40 students a year, both military and civilian, will take part in graduate degree programs at Carnegie Mellon and eventually at other institutions in advanced data science and data engineering, followed by a tour at the AI2C applying their skills to developing AI solutions. Our HQDA G-8 has sponsored over 50 Army leaders through executive courses in AI at Carnegie Mellon, and ASA(ALT) has sponsored still more through executive courses at the University of Virginia. Our FA49 Operations Research and Systems Analysis career specialty and FA26 Network Science and Data Engineering career specialty have sponsored officers through graduate level AI programs. Through all of this education and its application to a host of innovative problem sets, the Army has created a significant AI workforce and is continually working to improve how we employ this workforce.

What AI technologies are you most looking forward to in the coming years?

LTC Kristin Saling: Im a complexity scientist by background, and Im fascinated about the applications of this field in autonomous systems and particularly swarm, and the host of things well be able to do with these applications. Thats my futurist side speaking. My practical side is just looking forward to simple automation being widely adopted. If we can just modernize our Army leave system from its current antiquated process, I will count that as a success.

LTC Kristin Saling has a lot to say on this subject. If youd like to engage with her directly she will be presenting at an upcoming AI in Government event where she will discuss where the US Army currently stands on its data collection and AI efforts, some of the challenges they face, and a roadmap for where the DoD and Army is headed.

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AI Startup Begins Offering Artificial Intelligence Consulting Services To Help Companies Hurt By The Pandemic Recover – The Free Press Tampa

Posted: at 12:23 am

Our Artificial Intelligence Consulting Services Can Help Businesses Breakthrough The Pandemics Barriers.

AI Exosphere, an AI Startup, begins offering artificial intelligence consulting services to help companies hurt by the pandemic recover.

Sal Peer, CEO of AI Exosphere.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA, USA, August 31, 2021 /EINPresswire.com/ AI Exosphere, an AI Startup, begins offering artificial intelligence consulting services to help companies hurt by the pandemic recover. Formed by Sal Peer and Alex Athey, a pair of dedicated professionals with a vision to free the entrepreneur, resolve enterprise-level problems, and empower the everyday Joe.

Our team is dedicated to increasing inclusion, accessibility, and scalability through AI innovations. Experienced in helping small business owners automate time-consuming tasks through AI and machine learning practices. Therefore, WE FEEL CONFIDENT WE CAN HELP SAVE OUR SMALL BUSINESSES.

From NLP solutions to full server deployment of cloud-based applications, our team is ready to help our customers build the future.

Our team's expertise lies in Python full stack server development. Applying our expertise in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement machine learning, neural networks, and deep learning, we build intelligent systems that make the best decisions with little to no human help.

We build real-time speech recognition and conversational AI applications that drive user experience and increase engagement. Some of our current projects feature bleeding-edge tech AI operations by GPT-3 and GPT-J.

We also offer server development. Cloud and server development is essential for artificial intelligence operations. Our trained IT professionals can help design and deploy customizable server environments for any AI task your business could need.

"My goal with our consulting service division is to increase access to bleeding-edge tools for our small business community and find AI automation that can address the current situation," said Sal Peer, CEO of AI Exosphere.

We know for sure that artificial intelligence has many possibilities to transform your business. The use cases below are just a few examples of how our AI consulting and development services drive business efficiency and improve the bottom line.

-Automation Development-Facial Recognition-Image Data Labeling-Activity Recognition

We tailor our artificial intelligence solutions to our customer's particular needs using our knowledge of industry-specific business processes and challenges. So whether we can help to automate back-office operations, boost customer experience, improve security, or launch a genuinely innovative software product, our AI developers are up for the challenge.

About AI ExosphereAt AI Exosphere, our focus is on Project Hail (HailyAI), an AI voice business assistant who can take complex digital actions and act in a sales and customer support role.

Sal PeerAI Exosphere LLC+1 888-578-2485email us hereVisit us on social media:TwitterLinkedIn

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Astronauts’ photos from the space station reveal the highs and lows of watching Earth from above in 2021 so far – Yahoo News

Posted: at 12:22 am

The thin blue line of Earth's atmosphere appears on the horizon beyond the Red Sea and the Nile River in Africa, February 3, 2021. NASA

Astronauts on the International Space Station enjoy mesmerizing views of Earth. They orbit the planet every 90 minutes, so they see lots of sunrises, nighttime city lights, blue ocean water, and colorful landscapes.

The best photos taken from the space station in 2021 so far, which follow below, showcase bright auroras, hypnotizing crop patterns, and stunning mountain ranges. Some astronauts try to find their birthplaces on the globe, while others scope out National Parks to visit someday.

But as the climate crisis intensifies, the crew can also see devastating wildfires burning, as well as hurricanes like Ida and drought in the western US. The astronauts say this extreme weather is "sad" and "worrying."

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Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) drink in stunning views every day.

From more than 250 miles above the Earth, they can see city lights, mountain ranges, major storms, and melting glaciers.

Since the space station orbits Earth every 90 minutes, astronauts see 16 sunrises and sunsets per day.

There are currently seven people on the station.

Some of them - including European Space Agency astronaut Thomas Pesquet and NASA astronaut Megan McArthur - regularly post stunning photos on social media.

Agricultural areas can make beautiful patterns, like these farms in the desert. It's not easy to pin down exact locations from space, but Pesquet said this was somewhere in Africa.

In some places, like Bolivia, those pretty patterns - and the crops growing within them - come at the expense of clearing tropical forests.

When spaceships launch towards the station, carrying astronauts or supplies, those aboard the ISS often watch the rocket streaking towards them.

Astronauts don't always know what they're looking at.

But sometimes they spot something distinct and dramatic, like a volcano spewing gas.

Occasionally, they even spy their homelands - like this picture Pesquet snapped of his birthplace in Normandy, France.

Story continues

"How can something so beautiful be tolerated by human eyes?" NASA astronaut Mike Massimino told the Washington Post, referring to his feelings the first time he saw Earth from above.

Source: The Washington Post

But lately, some of the sights from the ISS have been more concerning.

"We've been very saddened to see fires over huge sections of the Earth, not just the United States," McArthur told Insider on a recent call from the space station.

Plumes of smoke billow from wildfires in Northern California, August 4, 2021. NASA/Megan McArthur

Other consequences of climate change are easily visible from the ISS, too. "We can see all of those effects from up here," McArthur said.

Pesquet photographed Hurricane Ida just hours before it struck Louisiana as a Category 4 storm.

"It's worrying to see these weather phenomena becoming stronger and more frequent from our vantage point," Pesquet said on Twitter.

Lately the astronauts can even see dwindling reservoirs along the Colorado River, which is in its first-ever official water shortage.

On the bright side, though, astronauts caught a stunning view of the southern aurora earlier this month.

"I wasn't surprised by the auroras, but I was kind of bowled over by how breathtaking they really were, and how mesmerizing it was to see it with my own eyes," McArthur said.

McArthur has also been scoping out US National Parks to visit with her husband - astronaut Bob Behnken - and their son once she's back on the ground.

Passing over the US, she can see several National Parks in just a few minutes.

"The other thing that we can see, of course, is the very thin lens of atmosphere," McArthur said.

"That is what protects our Earth and everything on it," she added. "We see how fragile that is, and we know how important it is."

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Space Bubbles: Experiment on International Space Station aims to improve cancer detection – ND Newswire

Posted: at 12:22 am

Tengfei Luohad certain hypotheses about what would happen during his scientific experiment, conducted in June aboard the International Space Station, to form water vapor bubbles in an environment without gravity.

His goal was to engineer material surfaces to make bigger bubbles that adhere to the surface rather than grow buoyant and detach like they do on Earth. He ended up getting both less and more than he expected in his first beyond-this-world experience.

What I found interesting is that the bubbles did detach, Luo said of the near real-time videos beamed back from space. They did grow bigger than what we saw on Earth. Theres no gravity there, which means were probably seeing the physics we would like to see. There is a competition between other factors that led them to detach.

Against expectations, Luo said, the bubbles grew slowly but suddenly detached at once while still at different sizes.

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Covid-19: Here’s why Jacinda Ardern’s British critics are wrong – Stuff.co.nz

Posted: at 12:21 am

OPINION: British columnist Matthew Lesh, writing in The Telegraph , claimed Jacinda Ardern was trapped in her "arrogant Zero Covid policy.

Unfortunately the claim is devoid of accuracy and demonstrates an absence of proper research, which is ironic given the writer is the head of research of the Adam Smith Institute.

Rosa Woods/Stuff

University of Otago Professor of Public Health Michael Baker was part of the group which advised the Government on coronavirus.

To throw back at him his offensive opening sentence, there is no poetic justice in his article for the honest intellectual Smith was.

Lesh does acknowledge that New Zealands economic growth has been high and mortality low during the pandemic, but he downplays the significance as if it is only a 2020 phenomenon.

READ MORE:* We need a vaccination target to avoid lockdowns, and we need it now* ScoMo is right. We can't stay hidden forever* Covid-19: Cases among essential workers could spell end of elimination strategy

First, through its elimination strategy, New Zealand has one of the lowest Covid-19 mortality rates in the world 5 deaths per million.

Compare this with the United Kingdoms 1,961 deaths per million (20 August). If we had followed the UKs more laissez faire approach we could have had over 10,000 deaths instead of 26. New Zealands last Covid-19 death was in February 2021.

Second, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development has ranked New Zealand the best performing member country for its Covid-19 response including economic performance.

Supplied

Ian Powell, former executive director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS).

And thirdly, New Zealands elimination strategy has given us amongst the highest levels of freedom from lockdowns in the OECD over the last 18 months, based on the Oxford Stringency Index and Economist Magazines Normalcy Index.

Lesh is misleading in his description of New Zealand following a zero Covid strategy. In fact, our elimination strategy in its focus on community transmission is more practical than this. It recognises that we might not keep the virus out of the country all the time but, if we get an outbreak, we will stamp it out quickly in order to protect the public.

That is why New Zealand went into a national lockdown as soon as we detected the beginning of our first Delta variant Covid-19 outbreak on August 17.

Genomic testing showed the virus was introduced from New South Wales by an infected traveller who arrived on August 7. The virus had not been circulating for a few weeks in New Zealand.

Lesh is wrong to claim that Australia has seen rising daily cases despite continued harsh lockdowns. Through quick strong lockdowns Delta variant outbreaks have been largely eliminated in the states of Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia along with Northern Territory (Tasmania has managed to keep it out completely).

Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

SNSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian speaks during a Covid-19 update and press conference on July 26.

Cases are rising, dangerously so, in New South Wales but, despite the protestations of its Premier to the contrary, it is because of the slow response and very loose lockdown enabling the virus to continue to spread. Harsh lockdowns have worked in Australia; loose ones havent.

Using our low vaccination rate for alleging that Prime Minister Ardern has little serious interest in protecting New Zealanders is dishonest. Our vaccination rates are dictated by vaccine supply which has been hard to control. As a small economy in the OECD we have less negotiating leverage than much bigger economies and countries such as the UK that are vaccine producers.

In fact, we are comparable with the much bigger economy of Australia and by the end of this year every adult New Zealander is scheduled to have the opportunity to be fully vaccinated.

Further, the very quick national lockdown currently underway is hardly the behaviour of a Prime Minister who has little serious interest in protecting New Zealanders.

Lesh claims that New Zealands vaccination centres were closed down because of the lockdown. This is disingenuous. Recognising that our workforce capacity would be over-stretched the government suspended vaccination for one day to allow essential testing centres to get up and running. Now we have both vaccinations and testing for Delta surging concurrently.

Once the population is fully vaccinated by late 2021, and we know more about the implications of various policy options, New Zealand will be well placed to make an informed choice about continuing with an elimination strategy or switching to a looser suppression approach if that appears optimal. Until then, we hope the country can continue to keep its options open.

When Adam Smith advocated his invisible hand in market economies we dont believe he envisaged that objectivity and empirical evidence would be thrown out the window as a consequence in the way Lesh has done.

Ian Powell, former Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, and Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington,

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Has Jacinda Ardern’s New Zealand got its Covid-19 response all wrong? – The National

Posted: at 12:21 am

Latest analysis: Covid Delta surge in vaccinated societies shows masks are here to stay

As the Delta coronavirus variant causes thousands or tens of thousands of cases a day in countries ranging from Israel to Japan and the US, another nation is dealing with an outbreak of a very different scale.

New Zealand is in a strict lockdown introduced initially because of a single coronavirus case detected last week an uncompromising response that reflects the countrys elimination strategy for Covid-19.

There have been 63 new cases of Covid-19 recorded in the community in the past 24 hours, taking the total number of active cases to 210, the highest figure since April 2020, as the web of contacts linked to the first person to test positive expands.

If the elimination strategy requires regular lockdowns to control outbreaks, then it may not be sustainable in the long term

Prof Nick Wilson, University of Otago, New Zealand

Thanks to intensive contact tracing, testing and isolation, experts believe the country will, however, be able to stamp out this current outbreak, even if doing so takes several weeks.

The elimination strategy of the government led by Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, contrasts with the suppression or mitigation approach used by many other countries, which is based on vaccination and more limited lockdowns. New Zealand has fully vaccinated about 23 per cent of its population, the lowest of the OECD group of developed countries.

Australia and Singapore have also adopted the elimination approach to Covid-19, and plan to continue until high vaccination rates enable a move to a policy of suppression living with the virus. But will New Zealand follow a similar strategy?

Elimination has downsides, including a significant effect on New Zealands international tourism industry.

Even New Zealanders have found it difficult to return to their home country because of the strict border controls imposed to keep the country Covid-free.

But there have been significant upsides, not least the lowest mortality rate in the 38-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with only 26 deaths recorded.

This is a tiny fraction of the number seen in many nations and is extremely low even after taking into account the countrys modest population of about five million.

At home, New Zealanders have typically enjoyed more freedom than their counterparts in other developed countries since the coronavirus emerged. Concerts and sports matches have taken place without the need for social distancing or masks.

The countrys economy also recovered faster than that of most OECD nations, although continued lockdowns could cause a reversal in economic fortunes.

A study published in May found that after disruption during the lockdown early last year, vital hospital services in the country, particularly cancer treatment, had not been heavily affected by the pandemic, helped by the fact hospitals were not overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases.

Opinions on whether New Zealand can maintain its strategy is divided. Some experts outside the country think that, in the long term, elimination is unrealistic.

Prof Eskild Petersen, an infectious diseases specialist at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, suggests that his countrys experience indicates that, with high vaccination rates about 70 per cent of Denmarks population is fully vaccinated it is possible to live with the virus.

"In Denmark we have about 1,000 cases per day. The schools are open. Theres no longer a mask mandate in public spaces. People get infected, but hospitalisations remain low, he said.

"The strategy of New Zealand a nationwide lockdown is very, very expensive compared with our strategy, where we have immunised as many people as possible as fast as possible.

The relative benefits of an elimination strategy will decline, according to David Taylor, professor emeritus of pharmaceutical and public health policy at University College London.

In time, if the world is going to normalise and it will we will probably get better vaccines produced and better drugs. At that stage, the advantages of trying to run an isolation policy fade away, he said.

A woman ensures she is well protected during lockdown in Wellington on Wednesday. Getty Images

While New Zealand has indicated that it could begin to open up to the world next year, it has not said that it will abandon its elimination strategy.

Travellers entering the country will be treated according to the risk level of the country they are coming from, with some having to undergo managed isolation and quarantine.

This scheme, in which those arriving have to isolate in particular hotels on arrival, has been key to preventing the coronavirus from entering New Zealand.

Experts in the country said it is not clear how the coronavirus will affect health in societies over the long term.

It may become an endemic virus with a low-level impact, or it could impose a significant continuing disease burden.

Until the outcome becomes clear, they argue, it may be sensible to maintain elimination, a strategy popular with New Zealanders, according to reports.

Covid-19 testing in Wellington, as level four lockdown continues across New Zealand. Getty Images

When more people in New Zealand are vaccinated currently only about one in five residents are fully jabbed it may be possible to continue with elimination even when easing up on border controls next year, suggested Prof Nick Wilson, of the department of public health at the University of Otago in New Zealand.

It will mean that outbreaks arising from imported cases become more feasible to control, he said. Travellers to New Zealand will also need to be vaccinated, so that will help.

"But if the elimination strategy requires regular lockdowns to control outbreaks, then it may not be sustainable in the long term, given that the public acceptance of lockdowns will decline, as it is starting to in places like New South Wales in Australia.

As well as preventing illness and death from Covid-19, the elimination strategy stops health services from becoming overburdened during coronavirus outbreaks, Prof Wilson said.

When hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, treatment for serious conditions such as cancer or heart disease can be affected.

Prof Wilson cites modelling, which indicates that, even with high vaccination coverage, New Zealands health system could become overloaded.

"Many other measures for Covid-19 control are likely to persist in 2022, for example extensive community testing, extensive wastewater testing and mask use requirements on buses, he said.

As it vaccinates, New Zealand is continuing with austere control measures and giving itself time to decide on a long-term approach.

After all, as Ms Ardern has noted, once elimination is abandoned, there is no going back.

Updated: August 25th 2021, 1:48 PM

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Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

The Details

Kabir Singh

Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series

Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga

Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa

Rating: 2.5/5

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Covid-19: Jacinda Ardern and the last lockdown – Stuff.co.nz

Posted: at 12:21 am

OPINION: Labours bet the house this time. It could be politically disastrous for Government if it cant eliminate Delta and we end up like New South Wales, spending months in a state of perma-lockdown until enough of the population is vaccinated.

One of the things that has become very clear during this lockdown is that we are in the last gasp of the current elimination strategy.

The dual practical and political purpose of this particular lockdown is to buy enough time to get the vaccine rollout done, before getting on with trying to reintegrate with the world and get back to life with a variation of normal.

That new life will regrettably but quite possibly require masks, certain limits of public gatherings, and general public health measures for some years.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern bet the house on the latest lockdown, says Luke Malpass.

READ MORE:* Covid-19: Don't be fooled, Israel was vulnerable to Delta, says data modeller* Covid-19 NZ: Explaining why level 2 could be the new normal in the age of Delta* Covid-19: Speed, size of cluster puts alert level system on notice* Covid-19 NZ: How viable is New Zealands coronavirus elimination plan in the time of Delta?

Delta is a game-changer. It is a hackneyed phrase: the prime minister has said it, Australias Scott Morrison and NSWs Gladys Berejiklian have said it. It is a well-accepted fact. But it has been a game-changer in more than one way.

Obviously it has had a big effect on the lockdown strategy. Its fast spread is the reason for going into lockdown less than eight hours after the first case was discovered and announced.

When it comes to keeping Delta out, the view is that there are no proportionate responses. The Government is chucking the kitchen sink at it.

Thats one way it changes the game. The other and this has been reflected in the arc of changing language used by Ardern over the week is that elimination of Delta, even in the medium term, is not going to be a sustainable strategy. The transmission is too quick; it will be too hard to keep out. Fortress NZ, kept safe from Covid at the bottom of the world with our big blue moat and our closed border, isnt going to be able to rely on those any more.

Since March this year, Ardern has used the language of a barricade versus individual armour to describe our Covid response and vaccine rollout: 2020 was the year of the barricade the closed border and 2021 was to be the year of the vaccine, which would provide each of us with individual armour against the virus.

The move to individual armour theoretically meant being able to dismantle the barricade.

But what if the barricade cannot be relied upon to work? It was no coincidence that Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins explicitly warned only the week before Delta was discovered that we should all prepare for a short, sharp level 4 lockdown if it did arrive. The Governments health officials had formed the view that, with NSW on our doorstep, it was almost certain to arrive.

Sir David Skeggs group, which was advising the Government on reconnecting with the world, also had the view that Deltas arrival was inevitable in the next few months. As it turned out, by the time Skegg got up and gave his speech on the reopening plan two Thursdays ago, Covid was already back in the community.

So elimination is highly unlikely to be sustainable. There were as many cases within a week of discovering this outbreak as there were in almost the entire month at the start of last year when Covid first arrived. Director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield has summed up this difference in the most straightforward way it might as well be a different virus.

For the Government, this will have fast-forwarded the messaging around what had looked like a slow and steady plan to reopen without scaring too many voters. And if it does manage to stamp out Delta which is looking positive but far from a slam dunk the political task ahead could potentially be made even tougher.

The most difficult thing politically about reopening was always going to be the rhetorical reverse-ferret that will be required. For 18 months, everything Ardern and Labour have done has revolved around keeping Covid out. We were told it was crucial for the economy, the health system and saving lives. And it was.

Now that will have to drastically change as we reopen and accept that Delta will arrive and that, even if we wanted to, tackling it with lockdowns would simply end up costing far more than it was worth.

Skeggs group has said that New Zealand should retain its elimination strategy for now, because it can easily be jettisoned if no longer needed. But once lost, its lost forever. Once the country starts to open up again early next year which the Government, rightly, is determined to go ahead with elimination will remain the policy. But it is completely unclear how this will work.

In no small measure, the Government has successfully used fear as a big motivating factor for people over the past 18 months. Now fear could work against it. As with a lot of things in this world, the Government cant fix Covid, and will essentially have to level with the public about this fact.

Ardern said as much on Thursday: No-one wants to use lockdowns forever, and I can tell you now that is not our intention, because we have new tools for managing Covid and we will use them. But for now, while we vaccinate, elimination is the goal.

But this all turns on the vaccine rollout working and getting through basically everyone who wants a jab by the end of the year. Thats precisely the reason Ardern has turned the top of the 1pm update into a misleading advertorial about the vaccine programme, in which she or the minister fronting produces a huge headline figure of the number of New Zealanders who have either booked or had at least one vaccination. Its a nonsense number.

Being booked and being vaccinated are not the same thing. Trying to pretend that the rollout is quicker than it is by blowing up a concocted headline number does no-one any favours and hurts the Governments credibility.

But it does speak to the political vulnerability of the Government. Elimination is still the strategy, and it needs to hold until the population gets vaccinated. The lockdown has given the vaccine programme a real shot in the arm, but the high rate of 85,000-plus vaccines a day isnt sustainable, because of a lack of vaccine it will have to slow by a quarter or a third. The big delivery of vaccine some four million-odd doses wont arrive until October.

All of that means this is the last-gasp lockdown. Delta is going to be here, it is going to have to be managed, but lockdowns wont be how it is done. They are too tough, too costly and, ultimately, compliance is unlikely to remain as high in the future.

Elimination via lockdowns was arguably the best strategy. But in a world of Delta, the economic juice wont be worth the squeeze. Now the Government has to remind Kiwis that it cant save every life, and also realign its messaging around the fact that health outcomes are never the only consideration in policy-making.

This lockdown may drag on, and there may still be others before the end of the vaccine programme, but it is now clear that its time in the Covid toolkit is coming to an end.

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