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Daily Archives: July 27, 2021
What is the liberal response to the migrant crisis? – The New European
Posted: July 27, 2021 at 1:16 pm
Hand-wringing about the plight of migrants crossing the Channel and Mediterranean by boat -and angry words about their treatment - will only go so far. What would liberal progressives actually like to see done?
Much of the world is on fire: Syria remains in the throes of a years-long civil war, Ethiopia is close to embarking on one, just months after its prime minister was awarded a Nobel prize, Afghanistan faces a new Taliban era, and famine, persecution and civil strife force millions of people across the globe to seek sanctuary elsewhere.
Many of those people entirely understandably look to the relative peace and stability of Europe and the UK for refuge. And despite the huge obstacles in their way the safe routes here have all been blocked are prepared to make the dangerous journey to our shores.
In both the UK and Europe, a fixation with the daily arrival of boats, across the Channel and the Med, excites the anger of many and the compassion of others. Neither response seems to be proving particularly helpful in finding a solution.
The reaction of many European countries has been to turn to populists and to try to further close their borders. That is the response of home secretary Priti Patel and the Conservative government of which she is part, too.
Despite us being on the western fringe of the European continent and getting just a trickle of asylum seekers relative to other countries, our government has been keen to use some of the worlds most vulnerable as an easy source of political credit, vowing to make it even harder to seek respite in the UK, despite asylum being a fundamental right recognised in international law.
Patel might be offering nothing in the way of insight or in compassion but all too often the liberal response to the issue of refugees is no better, warmer words aside.
It is easy to say we dont want asylum seekers drowning off our shores, or living in squalid and unsafe conditions in detention centres, and certainly that people should not be shipped to Australian-style prison islands.
But when it comes to saying what we actually want to happen, those of us of a socially democratic persuasion often have less to say and thats because the issue itself is often quite a difficult one. What is it we actually think we should do for the worlds refugees?
One thing we should stop doing is pretending that every refugee crisis in the world is the direct fault of the UK it is neither a true argument nor a politically winning one.
The UK clearly holds some responsibility for the rise of ISIS across Iraq and Syria, and should recognise that. Similarly, we have a broader colonial legacy that has done a lot of harm across much of the world. But equating that with the UK being the cause of the worlds miseries itself removes the agency from the people of the affected countries: when Bashar al-Assad murders his own civilians, he is the person who should be held accountable for that. We should not act as if those of us in liberal democracies are the only people on the planet with agency.
Leaving that point aside, we are left to the practicalities: in a world where millions of people are displaced by persecution, war, natural disasters or famines, what do we do? One step is to make sure we join up our thinking on different border crossings the UK does not exist in isolation versus the rest of the world.
Countries on the eastern and southern borders of the EU have closed many of the relatively safe (land-based) border crossings used by those who would seek asylum. The result is desperate people trying to cross the Mediterranean landing them in the same countries battling to keep them out.
Part of those border countries antagonism to refugees is the unwillingness of the EU to fully commit to fairly sharing the burden of hosting refugees. In theory. people accepted as legitimate asylum seekers should be distributed across EU nations, and there is financial support available to arrival countries from those further away.
In practice, such measures always come a day late and a dollar short, meaning that anti-asylum politicians all too often are propelled to political power in the affected countries. The result is a vicious cycle: the inflow of refugees becomes visible because people have to highlight the death and danger it involves.That keeps the issue high up the news agenda, which leads to calls for political action, and so on and so forth. Even if the current tactics cut the number of asylum seekers by 80%, their increased visibility produces a toxic political mix.
This Mediterranean crisis fuels, in turn, the crossings of the Channel with few options in Europe and hostile political environments in so many countries, the UK becomes an incredibly attractive option for those with the resources to reach it, not least because many more people speak English than other European languages, and want that head start towards integration.
As we, like the EU, have closed off most safe and legitimate routes to claiming asylum, boats become the option of last resort. And once again, the harsh approach fails on its own terms keeping the crossings in the headlines, with all the divisiveness that entails, while helping almost no-one.
The current approach fails on its own terms. Going harsher would do the same it would simply incentivise media coverage of the issue, both from right wing papers highlighting that even these new draconian measures got missed and people slipped through, and from activists trying to expose what would, from experience, surely be grim and dangerous conditions, if asylum seekers were kept offshore somewhere, for instance.
Some of us might think the right thing to do is to just drop restrictions or quotas altogether, and say that anyone found to be a genuine refugee always a tricky thing to define, but lets park that for today would be welcome to seek asylum in the UK. This would certainly feel morally admirable, but it may not prove either politically or practically sustainable.
The main problem is that the world is so chaotic and dangerous now that there are huge number of people seeking asylum almost all of them living in poorer countries. UN statistics suggest there are more than 25 million refugees around the world, alongside a further 50 million people displaced within their own country.
More than 80% of those people are in developing world countries richer nations do far, far less than their fair share here. Turkey alone, for example, has more than 3.6 million refugees despite having a population only slightly higher than the UKs.
A wave of several hundred thousand skilled immigrants from eastern Europe in the 2000s prompted a political backlash that created the Brexit movement. An influx of millions of refugees would risk political consequences even more dire assuming it ever got approved as a proposal in the first place. And that's not even to consider the damage it could do to countries suddenly denuded of much of their populations.
A sincere effort to do more as a good global citizen while also making asylum a smaller political issue would have to be a compromise. People do not spend thousands of pounds often all the money they have in the world and risk the lives of their children for fun or out of spite. They do it because they have no other choices. Giving people safer and better choices is the way to end the Mediterranean and Channel boat crises.
The government repeatedly says it wants people to take legitimate routes to seek asylum in the UK essentially asking people in camps in Turkey or elsewhere to apply for UK entry from there. This would be a safer and fairer option, if only it were a real one: an unfairness of entry by boat is that it is an option only open to relatively rich, middle-class asylum seekers. Poorer families cant even afford it.
The issue with the legitimate channels is people know their odds of success are astronomically low, because we take so few people from them. Instead of a trickle of a few thousand people, we should take hundreds of thousands. If we manage to make the terms fair, and let people work as they come, that could be increased over time if there was a lack of political backlash.
We pride ourselves often undeservedly on being a nation that believes in fair play, and yet as it stands we have set up a game for refugees where it is impossible to win without cheating, and then we condemn the cheaters who actually get here. Un-rigging the rules of the game might just be able to please everyone.
Finally, we have to remember to stand for what we believe, and to have and try to win the argument. If we have politicians that believe in the moral and ethical case for asylum, they should make that case, rather than dodging the issue or trying to deflect it.
Part of why we have ended up with a hostile environment is that almost no politicians challenged it. If we want to be a global Britain, and a good global citizen, we should help our neighbours when they are in need. We can hope otherwise, but one day we might need that help in turn, too we dont want to be forced to hope that other people are kinder than we managed to be.
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What is the liberal response to the migrant crisis? - The New European
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Can You Be Addicted to Travel? – Atlas Obscura
Posted: at 1:15 pm
Thirty-some-odd years ago, Don Parrish decided to visit all 50 U.S. states. Completing that feat only stoked his appetite for more, so he set out to apply the same concept on a global basis, visiting every region of every country. He says hes a homebody despite the fact that he has since visited all 32 Chinese provinces, 28 states in India, 83 Russian oblasts, 27 regions of France, 16 German Lnder, and so on. (And these political subdivisions arent static, so when a new region is created, Parrish goes back to check it off his list. Oh no, South Sudan is now a country? Gotta go back!)
Parrish is recognized as one of the worlds most traveled persons by all of the leading country-collecting clubs, including Most Traveled People (MTP) and Nomad Mania. His goal is to go everywhere on the planet, and hes been closing in on completing the MTP travel list in recent years. Most of the places left on his to-do list are obscure, remote islands with no regular ferry service, or spots that governments have declared off-limits to travelers.
Parrish is a trim, robust man in his 70s with neatly parted gray hair, pale blue eyes, and a bushy lumberjack beard. Hes a retired telecommunications engineer who looks like hes ready to go back to work at any moment. He wears a Fitbit device to track how many steps he walks each day and keeps a favorite pen tucked in his shirt pocket. His travel obsession started in the summer of 1965 when, as a college student from Texas, he worked as an unskilled laborer in a metal factory in Hanau, West Germany, as part of an exchange program. This formative experience gave him a taste for travel that has only intensified over the years. Travel, he believes, is a pursuit of knowledge, and each trip leads to the next one.
For hyper-organized Parrish, travel isnt just a pastime or a hobby. He prepares laminated itineraries for each journey, detailing his itinerary and goals for the trip. And he has recently begun to record and document every passport stamp he has accrued so he knows exactly when he entered and exited every country he has traveled to over the years. He calls this a personal travel archaeology project, and says the point isnt to prove that hes the most traveled person but rather just for his own record-keeping.
I like to be able to look back and see that on July 7, 1996, on trip number 54 [he also assigns each of his trips a number], I was in a particular place, he explained.
I met Parrish for the first time in a small park near his home in Downers Grove, a suburb of Chicago. He arrived early and had a black briefcase with some of his laminated trip itineraries and books detailing all his passport stamps. We had a lot to talk about but had a hard time agreeing on how to proceed. Parrish is a methodical, analytical thinker and he quickly grew frustrated when I would interrupt one of his stories to ask a question.
Well get to that, hed say.
Parrish travels with his own pillow and has no souvenirs in his homehe doesnt like to waste money, and the place isnt big enough.
Some people spend their money on nice clothes and fancy cars, he said. I spend my money on travel.
The only evidence of his travels inside his home is a map of the world in a hallway. But, no, there are no pins to indicate where hes been.
There would be pins everywhere, he explained.
Most pleasure trips are for a finite period of time to specific destinations. The journey is supposed to provide a solutionit could be anything from satisfying curiosity about a place or needing a break from routine to seeing a specific sight, finding a partner, or any other purpose.
But for those inflicted with intensive wanderlust, these trips provide a powerful sense of momentum. Visit Thailand and youll meet travelers who swear that Laos is more authentic. Go to Laos and others will insist that you havent seen a thing until youve been to Cambodia. The next thing you know, youve quit your job and are living out of a suitcase.
Once youre hooked on travel, you can never really feel sated because its not really a small world after all. Its immense, and pursuing the bits you havent seen can evolve into an obsession.
The word wanderlust comes from the German verb wanderto hike. Wanderlust is literally a desire to hike, but Daniel Garrison Brinton, a surgeon who spent a year traveling after medical school in the 1850s, hit on the deeper meaning of the term in his 1902 book with the not-so-sexy title The Basis of Social Relations. He described wanderlust as an inexplicable force, fraught with consequences to world-history. This wanderlust arises as an emotional epidemic, not by a process of reasoning, he wrote.
Maurice Farber, a longtime professor of psychology at the University of Connecticut who died in 2009, neatly summarized how compulsive travel can become a hamster wheel, where we keep moving without understanding why, in his oft-cited paper, Some Hypotheses on the Psychology of Travel, half a century later, in 1954.
Travel is, for some, a genuine compulsive symptom in the sense that it reflects persistent and powerful unconscious strivings, he wrote.
Indeed, travel is as addictive as sugar, cigarettes, or any drug. Good trips, bad trips, mediocre tripsin some ways, it hardly matters when you just need your next fix. And wanderlust can indeed be an emotional epidemic, as Garrison Brinton suggested more than a century ago. I avoid using the term travel bug because a bug is a minor affliction that disappears quickly. No, wanderlust is indeed more like an epidemicsomething powerful that isnt easy to shake or disregard. A force of nature.
We know a lot about compulsive and neurotic behaviorshoarding, phobias, and addictions to gambling, drugs, sex, porn, and foodbut very little has been written about compulsive wandering. Many travelers freely admit that they are addicted to travel, but these admissions are made in a light-hearted context: Almost no one thinks of travel as a potentially serious problem becauselets face itfor most of us, travel is fun.
Can travel be a bona fide addiction? You wont find travel addicts convulsing on the floor in a cold sweat, and there are no 12-step programs, halfway houses, or methadone clinics for the afflicted. But compulsive travelers can become dependent on travel to achieve a high they cant find anywhere else. And that dependence makes it difficult to come home.
Anyoneeven the president of the United States of Americacan feel a little lost at the end of a long journey. After two terms, Ulysses S. Grant left the White House on uncertain financial footing, but, rather than try to cash in on his notoriety, he elected to indulge his wanderlust, taking a two-year-and-four-month-long journey around the world.
Biographer Ron Chernow said that Grant displayed inexhaustible curiosity about the daily habits of ordinary people, seeking out obscure nooks of cities where he could watch them incognito. His wife, Julia Grant, devoted a third of her memoir to describing the trip.
They traveled with their sons for part of the journey and were nomads during this time, with no fixed abode. As they sailed back to San Francisco from Japan in September 1879, Grant, according to Chernow, returned home with some trepidation, even a creeping sense of dread, unsure of how he would make a living or even where he would live.
Writing to his friend and former secretary of state, Elihu Washburne, Grant said, I have no home but must establish one after I get back. I do not know where.
Grant later told reporters that he had been homesick a year into his journey but had gotten used to the vagabonding lifestyle and rather liked it: A year and a half ago, I was thoroughly homesick, but the variation of scene and the kindness which I have met with have almost done away with that feeling.
The Grants ended up living nomadically for four years. The former president thought he couldnt afford to live in a city but he found Galena, Illinois, where he grew up, too depressing. They landed on their feet, on East Sixty-Sixth Street in New York, across from Central Park, thanks to a $100,000 gift from wealthy benefactors. Sadly, health problems prevented him from repeating his world tour and he died of throat cancer in 1885.
The natural inclination for the obsessed traveler is to exterminate that post-travel depression by planning a new trip. The problem is that few of us have the luxury of traveling wherever and whenever we damn well feel like it. Work and family commitments, not to mention limited finances, can keep us grounded. And even if you try to structure a career path to accommodate a travel addiction, there are obstacles to overcome.
Ruth Engs, a professor of public health at Indiana University, told me that any activity or behavior can turn into an addiction. Some activities [like travel] are positive addictions but they can disrupt personal, family, work, financial stability, and other life commitments and can be considered an addictive behavior, she says.
Joseph Troiani, a professor of psychology at Adler University, echoed that assertion, telling me that travel can turn into a compulsive behavior for people who are looking to escape reality or use it as an avoidance strategy.
It can be a way to delay or completely avoid doing things we dont want to do, he says. Its easy to get hooked on travel because it stimulates the pleasure centers in the brain.
Even if theres general agreement that just about any behavior can turn into an addiction, I wanted to find a therapist accustomed to treating much nastier addictionsdrugs, sex, porn, gamblingto see if they would take a self-diagnosed travel addiction seriously.
I found Pete Pennington, a psychotherapist with a masters degree in clinical mental health counseling, specializing in gambling and other addictions, on the website of the magazine Psychology Today. A fit guy with fine, straw-colored hair whom I took to be around my age45Pennington ushered me inside a fluorescently lit office adorned with a bike, an aquarium, and a dry-erase board still filled with notes from his previous client, a gambling addict who was smiling as she exited the building.
I just finished a really intense session, so Im a little wiped out, Pennington said, taking a photo of his notes from the dry-erase board.
I felt a bit uneasy introducing the topic of travel addiction after he had just treated someone with what most would consider a much more serious and dangerous condition. I was like the guy waiting in line at the police station to flag a jaywalker behind someone reporting a murder. But Pennington set me at ease by establishing early on that he too was a traveler. In 2009, he left his job as a wilderness therapist to take a 10-month trip to India, Nepal, Southeast Asia, and a host of other places. But although he enjoyed the trip, travel never evolved into an addiction.
He loved some of the places he visited (Thailand) but was ambivalent or down on others (Egypt). Coming home wasnt an ordeal. There is no such thing as a positive addiction, he said, disagreeing with what Id heard from Ruth Engs. An addiction is when the negative consequences of a behavior outweigh the positive ones.
Pennington said that travel helped him bring the same sense of curiosity he had while in an exotic place back home. When I was sitting in traffic in Kathmandu, I never felt bored because there was always something interesting to look at, he said. I try to be the same way here in Bend [Oregon, where hes based]. I look around. I try to be observant rather than spacing out.
I told Pennington a bit about my life as a traveler and about some of the fellow travel addicts Ive met. But he was undecided on the question of whether travel could be a legitimate addiction. In more than 10 years of treating clients, hed worked with bipolar types, depressives, hoarders, people with eating and anxiety disorders, and those with addictions to gambling, sex, porn, alcohol, and drugs. But he had never treated anyone with a travel addiction.
Travel is a complex experience, he said, stroking a few days of beard growth on his chin. People are usually addicted to really simple things. Im not saying travel addiction doesnt exist but I just dont know. My instinct is that its not the travel thats someones problem but rather some other underlying issue in their life thats troubling them.
Since Pennington specializes in gambling addiction, I asked him if most of the gamblers he treats acknowledge their addiction.
Most of them dont because addictions disrupt our perception of reality, he said. I show them all the statistics about how people who gamble or play the lottery dont win but it means nothing to them. Theyre all convinced that theyll win if they keep playing.
Pennington might not see it, but I see parallels between gambling and compulsive traveling. Both pursuits can turn into costly obsessions that can impact careers, relationships, and pocketbooks. And while the gambler thinks if he just keeps rolling the dice, eventually hell strike it big, at least some travelers believe that if they keep moving, theyll find Shangri-la, enlightenment, or the person who will change their life.
Wanderlust starts with curiosity. Not everyone needs to travel to satisfy curiosity. I had an uncle who was a very learned guy with a high degree of intellectual curiosity. But he was able to satisfy his curiosity by reading books rather than going on trips. Is curiosity an inherited trait? If not, what is its underlying cause?
George Loewenstein, a professor of economics and psychology at Carnegie Mellon University, published what is still probably the definitive review and reinterpretation of the psychology of curiosity in 1994. Lowenstein called curiosity a critical motive that influences behavior in both positive and negative ways at all stages of the life cycle.
Researchers have established a strong link between curiosity and exploratory behavior, and Loewenstein calls curiosity a natural human tendency to make sense of the world.
Curiosity has been a major impetus behind scientific discovery and has served to inspire and stimulate creative types throughout history. But on the downside, it is also associated with behavior disorders one can find as search categories on porn sites, such as voyeurism, and has been blamed for risky behaviors such as drug and alcohol use, early sexual experimentation, and certain types of crime such as arson.
Loewenstein calls curiosity a form of cognitively induced deprivation that results from the perception of a gap in ones knowledge. The more knowledge one gains in a field, the more the curious person will focus on what they dont know. Curiosity increases with knowledge and as people focus on one area, they can become obsessed with it and realize their shortcomings. The more you travel, the more aware you are of the gaps on your travel resume, particularly if you dwell in the company of the worlds elite competitive travelers. The quest for mastery and completion, i.e., finishing the travel lists, is a powerful one that can be hard to set aside.
In our modern context, curiosity is viewed as almost universally positive. But it hasnt always been this way. In Greek mythology, Pandora, the first woman created by the gods, succumbed to her curiosity, opening a box (probably a jar) that released all the evils of humanity. Eve ate the forbidden fruit from the tree of knowledge, and in the book of Genesis, Lots wife was so curious that she couldnt resist turning around to look at the city of Sodom. The poor womanshe wasnt named in the bible, other than Lots wifewas turned into a pillar of salt.
Stephen Greenblatt, a Pulitzer Prizewinning author and professor of the humanities at Harvard, noted in The New York Times Review of Books in 1998 that for centuries, Stoic philosophers and Christian theologians struggled to subdue curiosity as one of the most disruptive, intractable and potentially vicious human traits.
In the 12th century, a French abbot, St. Bernard of Clairvaux, wrote that curiosity was the first step of pride the beginning of all sin. He detailed 12 steps up the mountain of pride, and another 12 down in his work The Steps of Humility and Pride. Curiosity, he asserted, can be healthy, but it can also be sinful when we take it too far, prying into matters that are not our concern.
Apparently some still believe this. Monsignor Charles Pope, a pastor in the Archdiocese of Washington, D.C., concluded in a 2013 piece on the 12 steps that the mountain of pride begins in the mind with a lack of sobriety rooted in sinful curiosity and frivolous preoccupation.
St. Augustine referred to curiosity as an ocular lust. Cicero thought that the story of Odysseusthe hero of Homers epic poem The Odyssey, who spent 10 years making his way home after the Trojan Warwas a parable about curiosity. Some 2,000 years ago he remarked, It was the passion for learning that kept men rooted to the Sirens rocky shores. And the 19th-century German philosopher Ludwig Feuerbach viewed curiosity as invoking painful feelings of deprivation if not satisfied.
Loewenstein echoed this concern, observing that, Despite its transience, curiosity can exert a powerful motivational force. Like sexual attraction, curiosity often produces impulsive behavior and attempts at self control. People who are curious not only desire information but desire it immediately and even seek it out against their better judgment.
Researchers dont agree on why we do this but they have identified multiple types of curiosity. One type, referred to as diversive curiosity, which is a kind of general stimulation seeking, is probably most closely related to novelty-seeking and exploratory behavior, but it can also be a garden-variety response to boredom. In 1972, the influential psychologist Jerome Kagan identified four basic human motivesthe first, the motive to resolve uncertainty, is synonymous with curiosity. (The others are sensory motives, anger and hostility, and the motive for mastery.)
Loewenstein argued that the key to understanding curiosity seeking lies in recognizing that the process of satisfying curiosity is itself pleasurable. And the process of satiating ones curiosity can indeed be enormously gratifying. But Loewenstein also acknowledged that while the satisfaction one obtains from satisfying curiosity will undoubtedly occasionally exceed ones expectations, he believes that those instances are outnumbered by occasions where the result is disappointing.
For Parrish and other top extreme travelers, travel disappointments often entail failurenot getting to impossibly difficult-to-reach locations, such as Bouvet Island, a kind of holy grail destination for elite country collectors, in the South Atlantic Ocean. Bouvet is a 19-square-mile dependency of Norway, 90 percent covered in glaciers and about a thousand miles away from the nearest populated land masstiny Tristan da Cunha, population 262.
Parrish and others tried to visit twice, in 2014 and 2015. Their ship got close enough to see it, but the seas were too violent to attempt a landingso it didnt count. Its been 15 years since anyone has successfully landed on Bouvet. Failure is not unusual, Parrish said. People fail trying to get to places like this. Here is my test for top travelers, tell me all the places youve failed to get to. The people who have the longest lists, those are the top travelers.
When I first met Parrish in 2014, he had just 36 places left to visit on MTPs list, out of what was then a list of 874. By the end of 2018, he had just 22 left. (Um, theyre now up to 995.) Mind you, whittling this list down from that stage, even modestly, is hard work, as it contains off-limits places and superbly, singularly hard-to-reach destinations, such as the Chesterfield Islands in the middle of the Pacific, Marie Byrd Land in the Antarctic, and more.
I corresponded with Parrish in February 2019 while he was in Mexico, where he planned to visit 20 UNESCO World Heritage sites in two weeks. He had some annoying news to share: Charles Veley, the founder of MTP and the last man to visit Bouvet, had expanded the MTP list to include 19 new places as a Christmas gift. Parrish only had four of them already. And so, after five years of arduous travel, his MTP target list had grown from 36 places to 37 (and now it is at 99). The good news, he said, was that two once forbidden islandsNicobar (in the Bay of Bengal) and Paracel (in the South China Sea)were opening up. And so, there was always somewhere to go.
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Scientists Claim That More and More Schizophrenia Cases Are Linked to Marijuana – Futurism
Posted: at 1:15 pm
An alarming new research study found a strong and growing correlation between smoking lots of weed and mental illness.
A team of scientists pored over health records of nearly 7.2 million people in Denmark and identified a link between cannabis use disorder defined as a heavy reliance on weed to the point of neglecting other aspects of their lives and the neurological condition schizophrenia, according to research published last week in the journal JAMA Psychiatry. While there are limitations to studies of this sort, its an alarming revelation that hints that weed may not be the comparatively safe drug many assume it to be, at least at heavy rates of consumption.
The sort of retroactive research that the scientists conducted cant actually determine a causal link between smoking weed and developing schizophrenia. There are plenty of other factors that could be at play, such as an unrelated increase in being able to diagnose schizophrenia, for example.
But the researchers told CNN that they do believe theres some degree of causation. They cited trends like the increase in cannabis use in Denmark, weed getting more potent over the years, and other studies suggesting that weed interacts with schizophrenia risk factors to argue that theres a real danger to smoking weed.
I think it is highly important to use both our study and other studies to highlight and emphasize that cannabis use is not harmless, study author Carsten Hjorthj from the Copenhagen Research Center for Mental Health told CNN.
Of course, our findings will have to be replicated elsewhere before firm conclusions can be drawn, Hjorthj continued. But I do feel fairly confident that we will see similar patterns in places where problematic use of cannabis has increased, or where the potency of cannabis has increased, since many studies suggest that high-potency cannabis is probably the driver of the association with schizophrenia.
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Scientists Claim That More and More Schizophrenia Cases Are Linked to Marijuana - Futurism
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Researcher Stands by Prediction of 2040 Civilization Collapse – Futurism
Posted: at 1:15 pm
But, she adds, nothing is inevitable.Right on Track
Earlier this month, sustainability researcher Gaya Herrington made headlines when sheexamined claims from a 1972 MIT study predicting the end of civilization and found that were indeed on track for a collapse around the year 2040.
Now, shes standing by her grim forecast. The moral of the story, Herrington told The Guardian, is that business as usual an approach thats worsened global climate change and largely failed to mitigate the resulting weather disasters will likely lead to economic and societal collapse.
However, she also feels its not too late to clean up our act.
Were totally capable of making huge changes, Herrington told the Guardian, and weve seen with the pandemic, but we have to act now if were to avoid costs much greater than were seeing.
The specific problems that the MIT scientists feared decades ago are a bit different than those facing us today. They were worried about a combination of resource scarcity and overpopulation, but as Herrington explained to the Guardian, the MIT researchers accurately guessed that resource scarcity would be solved through more innovative resource extraction technology.Unfortunately, that led to even more severe pollution.
The MIT scientists said we needed to act now to achieve a smooth transition and avoid costs, Herrington told the Guardian. That didnt happen, so were seeing the impact of climate change.
Herrington stands by her finding that the original 1972 prediction of civilization collapse seems to be on track. But, she added, nothing is set in stone, and theres still time to right the ship and work to build a more sustainable society.
The key finding of my study is that we still have a choice to align with a scenario that does not end in collapse, Herrington told the Guardian. With innovation in business, along with new developments by governments and civil society, continuing to update the model provides another perspective on the challenges and opportunities we have to create a more sustainable world.
READ MORE: Yep, its bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction [The Guardian]
More on the 1972 prediction: MIT Prediction of Civilization Collapse Appears To Be on Track
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Air Force Research Lab Says Force Fields Are "on the Horizon" – Futurism
Posted: at 1:15 pm
They called it a "missile defense umbrella," which sounds way less cool.Shields Up!
The Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) seems to be working on bringing a staple of science fiction weaponry the force field into reality.
The announcement arrived as part of a new AFRL report on the future of directed energy weapons you know, lasers and stuff and how they might be used by the military in the coming decades. The report concedes that developing a missile defense force field will take substantial technological development, but it also opines that directed energy weaponry has reached a tipping point of practicality, with a press release sent to The Drive claiming that the concept of a [directed energy] weapon creating a localized force field may be just on the horizon.
Unfortunately, when the AFRL talks about force fields, it doesnt quite mean the laser-like bubbles that the Gungans used against the Trade Federation in Star Wars: The Phantom Menace.
Rather, the military describes a force field as an umbrella formed by various directed energy weapons currently mounted on vehicles but eventually orbiting in space that zap down any missiles entering a certain radius.
By 2060 a sufficiently large fleet or constellation of high-altitude [directed energy weapon] systems could provide a missile defense umbrella, as part of a layered defense system, if such concepts prove affordable and necessary, the report reads.
By 2060 we can predict that [directed energy] systems will become more effective, and this idea of a force field includes methods to destroy other threats too, AFRL Directed Energy Deputy Chief Scientist Jermey Murray-Krezan said in the release. Eventually there may be potential to achieve the penultimate goal of a Nuclear or ballistic missile umbrella. Its fun to think about what that might be in 2060, but we dont want to speculate too much.
READ MORE: Air Force Directed Energy Report Argues Defensive Force Fields May Be Just On The Horizon [The Drive]
More on lasers: US Army Testing Machine Gun-Style Laser Weapon That Vaporizes Targets
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Universal basic income – Pros and cons – Economics Help
Posted: at 1:14 pm
A citizens income, basic wage or Universal basic Income (UBI) is a concept of paying everyone in society a universal benefit regardless of income and circumstances.
The main advantage is that ensures a minimum standard of income for everyone without any costs and bureaucracy of means-tested benefits. Also, it avoids the disincentive to work that can occur with means-tested benefits. In times of crisis, a UBI can also provide a social safety net with minimum admin costs.
The disadvantage is that is an expensive undertaking to pay everyone in society a universal benefit and there is a concern it may encourage some to live on benefits without contributing anything useful to society.
A citizens income or universal basic income would primarily be paid for out of general taxation, though in some models it could involve redistributing profits from publicly owned industries.
Under the proposals of Citizens Trust income, benefits should be distributed according to age.0-24 year olds would receive 56.25 per week, 25-64 year olds would receive 71 per week and those 65 and over would receive 142.70 per week.
The citizens income would replace all benefits except disability and housing benefit. The total cost for 2012/13 would be 276n close to the existing annual welfare budget.
It would replace child benefit, income support, JSA, NI and state pensions. It also estimates savings of 10bn from administration of pensions and tax credits.
The interesting thing about a citizens income is that it gains support from both the left and right. The left supports its aim to create a more egalitarian society. There is support from the right who dislike the disincentives and bureaucracy of means tested benefits.
From a personal view, I like it because my lodger is on a zero-hour contract he often doesnt have money to pay rent, but he is not eligible for any benefits. A citizens income would be good to provide a minimum income guarantee.
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How long are people going to live in the future? – World Economic Forum
Posted: at 1:13 pm
Benjamin Franklin had already turned 70 by the time he signed the US Declaration of Independence in 1776, when the average man wasn't expected to live to see 34. The inventor and statesman's remarkable longevity he died at the age of 84 has been attributed to avoiding alcohol and avidly swimming.
Global life expectancy at birth has now topped 70 years for men, and 75 years for women. And the population living to 100 and older is predicted to grow to nearly 3.7 million by 2050, from just 95,000 in 1990. According to a study published earlier this year, the biological hard limit on our longevity barring disease and disaster is as high as 150 years.
The progress made on extending lifespans thanks to vaccines and other breakthroughs has created complications, like difficulty funding retirement for growing elderly populations in some places. But its also inspired people to imagine a future where they pursue multiple careers and effectively combine several lives into one.
At certain points our prospects for longer lives havent looked great; US life expectancy saw its biggest decline last year since at least World War II, as COVID-19 was added to ongoing problems like drug overdoses. France, too, suffered a drop in life expectancy in 2020.
But there are clear indications more of us are headed the way of Jeanne Calment, the French woman who may have reached the age of 122 before dying in 1997.
Questions have been raised about Calments true longevity, but researchers from France and Switzerland say she was the oldest human being. Regardless, her official biography has captured the fancy of those who like the idea of being able to sip Port wine and eat more than two pounds of chocolate per week well past the century mark.
Clearly, the attractiveness of a longer life hinges on its quality.
The researcher Aubrey de Grey argues that the cellular decay behind ageing will be defeated. He's popularized the term Methuselarity to describe the point after which people with access to the right therapies will no longer suffer from age-related health problems, and human longevity will reach escape velocity (de Grey said recently that chances are decent this will occur by 2036).
Ray Kurzweil, an inventor and futurist, has likened the human genome to outdated software, and described ageing as a solvable engineering problem. Eventually we could extend our longevity indefinitely, Kurzweil has said, and relatively soon it may be possible to start adding one additional year to our lifespan every year.
There are potential economic benefits if people become able to live longer while staying healthier. A study published earlier this month used data from the US to suggest that effectively slowing the typical ageing process could create $38 trillion in value in a year of added life expectancy.
However, its unclear how evenly the tools needed for living longer and healthier lives would be distributed. Disparities in terms of healthcare and longevity, even within relatively wealthy countries, have become stark.
The OECD, a group of economically advanced countries, has reported that in 25 of its member states people with the highest level of education can expect to live about six years longer than those with the lowest level of education at age 30, for example.
The potential for effective anti-ageing innovation to worsen inequality in the future has stirred debate some say the advantages the affluent already have in acquiring everything from youth-preserving serums to face cream provide a glimpse of the issues to come.
For more context, here are links to further reading from the World Economic Forum's Strategic Intelligence platform:
On the Strategic Intelligence platform, you can find feeds of expert analysis related to Ageing and Longevity, Global Health, and hundreds of additional topics. Youll need to register to view.
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John Letzing, Digital Editor, Strategic Intelligence, World Economic Forum
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
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The XX Factor: What’s the Key to Female Longevity? – Technology Networks
Posted: at 1:13 pm
Dena Dubals interest in sex differences in aging started early. Growing up in rural India, she was surrounded by great-grandmothers, great-aunts and others who far outlived the men in the family. Her family wasnt unusual. Across the world, women typically outlive men by approximately five years and experience slower rates of age-related cognitive decline.
Now, as a neuroscientist at the University of California, San Francisco, Dubal is starting to uncover why those differences occur. In videos of aging mice wandering through a maze, she points out how some animals appear confused, meandering much like people trying to find their cars in a parking garage. Others take quicker, more focused routes through the maze, as if they remember exactly where they left their vehicle. Dubal recently discovered that the difference between these animals stems, in part, from a protein made by a gene on the X chromosome. Over the last several years, her research has homed in on sex chromosomes as a vital contributor to how our brains age.
Two X chromosomes lead to female hormones and features, while an X and Y lead to male traits. These differences affect glucose metabolism, cellular energy production and much more, according to Dubal, an investigator with the Simons Collaboration on Plasticity and the Aging Brain. Sex chromosomes and gonadal hormones alter fundamental biology in ways that we are just beginning to understand, she says. The X chromosome is 5 percent of our genome, and it has the largest density of brain-related genes compared to any individual autosome. I dont think its coincidence that variations or human mutations in these different X factors affect brain function.
Understanding these differences will be important for developing new treatments. In 2003, the National Institute on Aging (NIA) launched a program to help assess drugs or dietary interventions that could safely extend the life span of mice and eventually humans. This Intervention Testing Program supports studies of approximately 10 to 15 treatments each year, and researchers test interventions in both male and female animals. In 2015, researchers reviewed 14 interventions that had been tested over the previous decade. They found that only five appeared to actually extend life span and four of those worked differently in male and female animals. That suggests theres a fundamental difference in the way we age, said Brnice Benayoun, a biologist at the University of Southern California, in a 2020 podcast.
Dubal and Benayoun are now probing the mechanisms underlying these observations, examining how steroid hormones and sex chromosomes alter the trajectory of cognitive decline with age in different sexes.* Their studies, part of an SCPAB project on sex differences in aging, will help reveal why women are on average more resilient to cognitive decline, memory loss and other brain functions that erode as we grow old. Identifying these factors could inspire interventions that benefit everyone improving not just a persons life span but their quality of life as they age. The things that help us live longer also tend to be the things that help us live better, Dubal says.
Seeking clues as to why a 70-year-old woman is likely to appear far more youthful than a man of the same age, Steve Horvath, a geneticist at the University of California, Los Angeles, and his colleagues looked for changes in DNA methylation, also known as epigenetic markers, that control gene expression. They examined blood, brain, lung, liver and other tissues across the human life span and found many sex-associated differences. Samples from older adults showed signs of demethylation, particularly at enhancers and regulatory elements in the genome, which control when a particular gene produces protein and how much. Men typically appeared older and showed more signs of such loss compared to women of the same age. The contrast was most pronounced in liver and blood, and to a lesser extent in brain tissues.
Methylation hints at the cellular mechanisms underlying female cognitive resilience as well as their longer life spans, Horvath says. Its a very consistent finding that women age more slowly than men in several different organs, so on some level methylation reflects that mortality advantage, he says. It could easily be part of the explanation for cognitive resilience but I would never say it explains it all.
In 2019, another clue emerged from studies of how the brain consumes glucose. Manu Goyal, a neuroradiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, found that younger brains use a mix of two cellular pathways, oxidative and non-oxidative metabolism, to break glucose down and fuel their activity. Some older brains shift mostly to oxidative. When Goyal and his colleagues imaged glucose metabolism in the brains of 205 cognitively normal adults aged 20 to 82, they found that female brains on average appeared younger than those of age-matched males by approximately three years.
Surprisingly, mice with two X chromosomes whether they bore ovaries or testes lived longer than their XY littermates. Dubal and her colleagues were the first to note this effect of the X chromosome on life span in a 2018 study. The XX mice also performed better on tests of memory and spatial learning, such as finding their way to a platform through a water maze. If estrogen were the only factor responsible for longevity, then all mice with ovaries should show these advantages, Dubal says. But only XX mice did, whether they had ovaries or testes.
Typically, cells with two X chromosomes silence one set of X-linked genes by epigenetic mechanisms such as methylation, to avoid a double dose of X-linked proteins. In principle, a silenced X should be inactive. But at least 15 percent of X-linked genes in humans escape this silencing. Theres really a handful of factors that escape X inactivation in the brains of both humans and mice, Dubal says.
In a study published in August 2020, the team homed in on four such genes that are expressed in the brain and appear to slip past their epigenetic off-switches, resulting in increased levels of these proteins in XX cells. Some have been linked to intellectual disability and autism.
At a lab meeting, Dubal and her team took a vote on which of the four theyd pursue; the winner was a gene named lysine demethylase 6a, or KDM6A. Not much was known about it, she says. People with mutations in this gene have syndromes that involve intellectual disability and it seemed to be important to how brain cells connect at the synapse in mice. That was enough of a clue for us to wonder whether this was involved in cognitive aging and neurodegenerative diseases.
The KDM6A protein unspools DNA from histones, opening it up to be transcribed and controlling the expression of many other genes. In a series of experiments, Dubal and her team discovered that XX cells, which have higher levels of KDM6A, were more resistant to neurotoxins than XY cells. Decreasing KDM6A levels in XX cells made them more vulnerable to toxins, including -amyloid, a misfolded peptide linked to Alzheimers disease. Boosting levels of the KDM6A protein in XY cells made them more resilient to these exposures and improved XY animals spatial memory, enabling them to remember the location of a platform hidden within a maze and move swiftly toward it much like finding ones car in a garage.
Dubals team has also analyzed databases of genetic variants in Alzheimers disease and found an association between the presence of a genetic variant that increases levels of KDM6A in the brain and lower levels of cognitive decline. Such data could eventually lead to new interventions to prevent age-related loss in brain function and not just in women. If we can unravel what makes one sex more resilient or vulnerable than the other in a specific measure, Dubal says, that could mean novel therapies that could protect both sexes.
In a study published in Nature Aging in July, Benayoun and her colleagues studied how immune cells known as neutrophils changed with age in male and female mice. They found that an animals sex was a strong predictor of immune responses. Neutrophil activity followed sex-specific trajectories as animals aged: Cells from male mice showed higher levels of inflammatory proteins that can damage surrounding tissues, while those from female animals increased the production of extracellular structures correlated with autoimmune disease. These findings suggest that sex differences can become amplified with aging, at least for neutrophils, Benayoun said in a press release.
Benayoun is now developing a mouse model to understand how testosterone and estrogen regulate these processes. Their model allows researchers to externally reverse an adult animals gonads. They can reprogram an ovary-bearing mouse, born with two X chromosomes, to convert the ovaries into testes and produce levels of testosterone that are nearly identical to those of their XY-chromosome-bearing littermates. The model will allow them to answer questions such as how a lifelong exposure to testosterone affects neuro-inflammation or microglia in two animals with identical genetic backgrounds. Its going to help us identify whats beneficial or not in terms of these hormones which are known to modify brain physiology, she says.
To understand how sex hormones shape brain function over a lifetime, Benayoun has turned to the African killifish, a brightly colored tropical fish thats the shortest-lived vertebrate scientists can breed in labs. Killifish life spans range from 3 to 6 months, because they evolved in seasonal ponds of rainwater that dry up for half a year. Their live fast, die young lifestyle makes them ideal subjects for studying aging. They age five to six times faster than a mouse and almost 10 times as fast as zebra fish, Benayoun says. Its so powerful because we can recapitulate most of what we expect from human aging, including cognitive decline, in that short amount of time.
Her team studies two strains of the fish one that evolved in regions with a longer dry season, and another from a region with longer monsoons that allow the strain to live 30 to 40 percent longer than the other. Killifish sex is determined by X and Y chromosomes, so Benayoun aims to use single-cell RNA sequencing and other analyses to seek out sex differences in males and females in both the long-lived and short-lived strains. Theres not a lot of work in the species yet, she says. But we have every reason to believe they will have sex differences like any other vertebrate species.
*Note: Their projects and this story focus on the biological classification of worms, mice and humans as male and female. They do not capture gender, a persons innate sense of identity as male, female, a combination, or a different gender.
Reference:Lu RJ, Taylor S, Contrepois K, et al. Multi-omic profiling of primary mouse neutrophils predicts a pattern of sex- and age-related functional regulation. Nat Aging. 2021:1-19. doi:10.1038/s43587-021-00086-8
This article has been republished from the following materials. Note: material may have been edited for length and content. For further information, please contact the cited source.
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Environmental scientist warns that pollution is causing penises to shrink – Euronews
Posted: at 1:13 pm
Pollution is causing human penises to shrink, according to one scientist.
A leading epidemiologist and environmental expert has published a book that examines the link between industrial chemicals and penile length.
Dr Shanna Swan's book, Count Down, argues that our modern world is altering humans' reproductive development and threatening the future of our species.
The book outlines how pollution is leading to higher rates of erectile dysfunction, fertility decline, and growing numbers of babies born with small penises. Though the headline fact about shrinkage may sound like a laughing matter, the research paints a bleak portrait of humanity's longevity and ability to survive.
"In some parts of the world, the average twenty-something today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35," Dr Swan writes, dubbing the situation a "global existential crisis" in the book.
Chemicals in our environment and unhealthy lifestyle practices in our modern world are disrupting our hormonal balance, causing various degrees of reproductive havoc."
According to the book, humans meet three of the five possible criteria used to define whether or not a species is endangered. "Only one needs to be met," writes Dr Swan, "the current state of affairs for humans meets at least three."
According to Dr Swan's research, this disruption is caused by phthalates, chemicals used in plastic manufacturing, which can impact how the hormone endocrine is produced.
This group of chemicals is used to help increase the flexibility of a substance. They can be found in toys, food packaging, detergents, cosmetics, and many more products. But Dr Swan believes that these substances are radically harming human development.
"Babies are now entering the world already contaminated with chemicals because of the substances they absorb in the womb," she says. Much of Dr Swan's recent work has focused on the effects of phthalates, initially looking at phthalate syndrome in rats.
In 2000, however, there was a breakthrough in the field, and it became possible to measure low doses of phthalates in humans.
Since then Dr Swan has authored papers on how these chemicals can pass between parents and their offspring, the impact on female sexual desire, and - most recently - on penile length.
One of her most famous studies examined the intersection between sperm count and pollution in 2017, in ground-breaking research which looked at men's fertility over the last four decades. After studying 185 studies involving almost 45,000 healthy men, Dr Swan and her team concluded that sperm counts among men in Western countries had dropped by 59 per cent between 1973 and 2011.
But there is some good news. Since the creation of the European Environment Agency, European citizens are exposed to 41 per cent less particulate pollution than we were two decades ago. It's believed that these regulations have gifted Europeans an extra nine months of life expectancy, on average.
A demand for change from citizens and subsequent strong policies have helped to clear the air in parts of Europe before, and can continue to do so to ensure that high pollution today does not need to be tomorrows fate," says Michael Greenstone, director of the Energy Politics Institute at the University of Chicago.
So if pollution reduction measures can be properly implemented, there is still hope for the future and humanity's fertility.
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Australians are living longer but what does it take to reach 100 years old? – ABC News
Posted: at 1:13 pm
At age 96, Patricia Segal lives alone in an airy Sydney apartment with views of the sea. Time spent with her feels uplifting, invigorating, and when you ask for her secret Segal doesnt hesitate: her positive and curious attitude is the key to her longevity, she says.
And although scientists don't understand exactly why, research suggests she is correct.
As COVID-19 continues to expose the vulnerability of Australias elderly and an inquiry laid bare abuse in aged care homes Segal projects a dramatically different image of what it can mean to reach very old age.
She does not appear as a woman eyeballing 100. Segal looks years younger. Stylishly and carefully dressed, with her hair kept dark brown and cropped close, she radiates calm, upbeat confidence.
ABC News: Catherine Taylor
Our conversation roves across politics and sociology. The novel shes currently reading rests on her coffee table shes regular a member of two local libraries. Her apartment is decorated with original artwork the fruits of a painting hobby that she first took up aged 90-something.
"I just thought Id try it. I walked into the art class one day, everybody said 'hi!, everybody was smiling. The teacher was fantastic and it's just wonderful," she explains. "Sometimes when I look at the paintings I think 'did I really do that?'"
Researchers say Australians are entering an era in which remaining vital well into your 90s will be not just possible, but common. And your 80s may well deliver some of the best years of your life.
The average lifespan of an Australian woman is now about 85, packing on 25 additional years in a century, meaning one in two women will reach this age or beyond.
That's an ageDexter Kruger, Australia's oldest personbefore hepassed away this weekaged 111, reached with ease. Research suggests he's not alone:Centenarians are now Australia's fastest-growing demographic.
ABC News: Phoebe Hosier
Between 2000 and 2020 the numbers of Australians aged over 85 grew by 110 per cent, compared with national population growth of 35 per cent. A baby girl born today has an almost 40 per cent chance of reaching 100.
Life expectancy for men is increasing along a similar upwards curve, just behind the long-lived women.
Professor Perminder Sachdev, a neuropsychiatrist at the University of NSW, is leading the Sydney Centenarian Studythat is hunting for environmental and genetic determinants of successful ageing.He wants to know how the brain ages, and has enrolled around 450 study participants ranging in age from 95 into theirearly 100s.
Although the lifespan of Australians is increasing Sachdev says up to 50 per cent of people will suffer some kind of cognitive decline including dementia or Alzheimer's disease once they near 100.
It is a reality that concerns Segal, who says she does not want to reach a century if she is no longer in control. "Old people can get pretty useless," she says. "I've got a wonderful family but I don't want them to have to worry about me. I'm very, very lucky. I've had a wonderful life. I haven't missed anything."
ABC News: Catherine Taylor
Solving the riddle of what it takes to not just live longer, but do it with verve and enthusiasm and without mental impairment, is what Sachdev's team hopes to unravel.
There's no one pathway to a healthy long life, Sachdev says. It is a puzzle that is still being completed.
Increasing lifespans have paralleled improvements in healthcare, nutrition and education, as well as rising quality of life for most Australians that helps to ensure things like stable housing, another longevity indicator. Lifestyle improvements have also been significant particularly a successful campaign to reduce smoking. Even playing tennis has been pinged in one studyfor its associationwith greater longevity than other sports.
"All we have [to work with]are lifestyle factors," Sachdev says, and "we realise that these factors impact from birth. Ideally one wants a lifetime of good effort."
But researchers like Sachdev, and Professor Henry Brodaty who collaborates with him on the centenarian study, note growing evidence that successful ageing includes less tangible and more mysterious influences.
Segal's comment about her attitude to life was spot on. An optimistic personality, strong social connections and what the Japanese call "ikigai", a reason for being, are all core attributes of long lifers.
"We found people who are 100-plus and they are still volunteering in committees and other areas, engaged socially and with their great grandchildren, Sachdev says. It is this kind of physical and mental activity we tend to see repeated in different [ageing] studies around the world."
Quality education in childhood, and lifelong learning, is also key. Precisely how it impacts longevity and brain health is not fully understood.
Sachdev hypothesises that education may raise the likelihood of making sensible lifestyle choices, or offer socioeconomic benefits, like access to higher-paying job that puts a better standard of housing andhealthcare within reach andin turn predisposes these people to healthier bodies in old age.
He also argues that there are indications education builds "better cognitive reserves during the developmental period and you set yourself up for a lifetime of more complex cognitive activity".
"All the data points to the fact that if there is one thing we should do (to maximise healthy aging)it is improve the quality of education," he says. "Because people who had better education preserved their brains."
The lifestyle ingredients of longevity are so routinely effective as to feel almost predictive of long life. Could there be a "recipe"for successful ageing?
Regions around the world known as "blue zones" where the populations have unusually high numbers of centenarians offer clues.
The islands of Sardinia in Italy, Ikaria in Greece and Okinawa in Japan as well as Costa Rica's Nicoya Peninsula and California's community of Seventh Day Adventists in Loma Linda make up five zones where residents outlive the rest of the world.
Researchers have also distilled nine traits of these communities that are credited with underpinning each community's health.
They include:
Blue zones are less pronounced in Australia and pockets of longer-lived citizens tend to be linked to socioeconomic advantage. The ACT and Sydney's affluentsuburbs of Mosman, Hunters Hill as well as the Hills District,emerge as areas where residents have a slightly higher than average life expectancy.
In the Northern Territory, however, life expectancy is concerningly below the national average. Yet NT has also shown the greatest percentage growth in over 85s in Australia, suggesting disadvantage is slowing.
Longevity zones in Australia are also linked to retirement communities, Henry Brodaty notes, where higher concentrations of older people in turn creates a greater probability of encountering the 95-plus cohort. This is a quirk of internal migration rather than a true, blue zone.
In Segals case, as we talk, it's astounding how consistently her natural choices throughout life offer a real-world masterclass in hitting those longevity KPIs: never a smoker, a light and occasional drinker, Segal remains close to her two children, four grandchildren and 10 great grandchildren.
She's been active throughout life, a regular at the tennis club, and now walks everywhere ("I'm considering getting a walking stick not for stability but because it allows me walk even faster"). And she eats small, healthy meals that she cooks herself ("I've never cared about food").
And what about her self-acknowledged positive attitude to life?
One of the difficulties of living into very old age is that lifelong friends pass away, become ill or do not maintain the same attitude to living, Segal says. Her husband died four years ago at age 95, and Segal is matter-of-fact as she explains that loneliness can be one of the hazards of a long life.
Unwilling to slow down and give up her social nature, Segal enlisted her granddaughters to match her up with the grandmothers of their friends so she could expand and rebuild her friendship group as she aged.
"I've been lucky, I've made new friends," she says with trademark pragmatism. "I like to go out at least twice a week. I probably go out more than that but as long as I'm out twice a week I'm quite happy on other days to stay home and just read or write."
Even COVID lockdown hasn't slowed her down. Segal continues to swap books and the library and keep in touch with friends and family.
Segal also acknowledges how fate has worked in her favour. She fled Berlin with her Jewish family just before World War II, escaping the horrors that were to unfold in Europe. She grew up in a loving home and had a very happy marriage without financial pressure.
It's impossible to talk about longevity without considering the genetic lottery. Our DNA can protect or betray us no matter what healthy lifestyle choices we make.
Sachdev points out that genetics is an important part of the long-life puzzle, particularly for those who reach extreme old age, 100-plus, in great health. Hitting a century is where genes start to have real impact, and the limits of medical science begin to be felt, he says.
"The genetic factors are polygenic," says Sachdev, meaning that many genes are involved in predisposing someone to a long lifespan. Just how to manipulate these genes to deliver the same genetic advantage to everyone has not been solved.
"You notice that many people who reach 100 or above have been able to avoid illness altogether," he says.
"They have not developed the chronic illnesses that affect most of us, things like hypertension, diabetes or arthritis. Alternatively, if they do develop these problems, then they develop them at a later age, say their 80s or 90s rather than the 60s and 70s."
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When you look at global blue zones on a map two fascinating facts emerge: many are islands, and all lie in regions where the weather is warm and sunny for a good part of the year.
The warm weather may well encourage people to leave their homes and congregate in groups, building the social connections and optimism that are traits of those who age well.
These blue zone communities are also somewhat cut off from the outside islands, or peninsulas or closed religious communities: it is possible that generations of good genes were distilled within these groups and go some way to explaining why residents have such long lives.
In Segal's case it's debatable how much her genetics has influenced how well she has aged. Her father died at 72 and although her mother lived to 92, she was unwell from her late 80s but this would still have been beyond the life expectancy for women at that time.
Jim Hennington's job is to take one of life's biggest mysteries how long we might live and spin it into the kind of mathematical data that is so reliable hes willing to bet literally millions of dollars on it as part of his work in superannuation.
Hennington, a fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, says the data on human lifespan is remarkably predictable.
He points to a steady increase in average lifespan over decades and the smooth, comforting curves they produce when graphed mathematically. While the length of an individual life will always be unknown, he says, across a population the patterns are undeniable.
Those patterns hide even more interesting statistics, Herrington says, that influencing superannuation policy.
While the average life expectancy of an Australian woman is now 85, in reality, if an Aussie woman hits 65 in good health and with quality housing and lifestyle, she has as much chance of reaching 100 as dying before 86, Herrington says.
Reuters: Jean-Paul Pelissier
The remarkable lives of people like French woman Jeanne Calment, who lived to 122 and was assessed as cognitively sharp at age 121,raise hopes that years of healthy, active life can be further extended.
Sachdev believes that evidence humans can routinely survive to 110, 120 or even 150, is "not really that strong".
But surviving into your 90s, and staying mentally sharp and physically active, and more and more of us hitting the big 1-0-0, is a very real possibility, he says.
And as Patricia Segal knows, that's something to feel optimistic about.
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Australians are living longer but what does it take to reach 100 years old? - ABC News
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