Monthly Archives: June 2021

WHEN EDWIN POOTS was chosen as leader of Northern Irelands largest political party on May 14th, he described politics as a rough-and-tumble game. Defending his role in ousting his predecessor, Arlene Foster, as party leader and Northern Irelands first ministerthat is, joint leader of its devolved assembly in Stormonthe said: I would assume that at some stage it may well happen to me. After he had spent just 21 days in the post, it did.

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The proximate reason was a row over the status of the Irish language. Mr Poots needed support from Sinn Fein, the main Irish-nationalist party, to ratify his choice of first minister. An Irish-language bill disliked by his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was the price. On June 17th the government in Westminster said it would legislate on the issue if Stormont refused to do soa promise accepted by Sinn Fein, and by Mr Poots, who feared an election drubbing for the DUP if the devolved government collapsed. But not by his party: hours later just 15% of DUP legislators voted for the deal. His position untenable, Mr Poots stepped down that night.

But the deeper reason for Mr Pootss resignation is the hard Brexit that the DUP made possible. After Theresa May failed to get her Brexit deal through in 2019, the party backed Boris Johnson to replace her, attracted by his vision of a United Kingdom set adrift from the European Union. That miscalculation is now tearing it, and Unionism, apart.

The deal signed by Mr Johnson took Great Britain out of both the single market and the customs union, but avoided a hard border on the island of Ireland by, in effect, leaving Northern Ireland in both. That meant a new customs border in the Irish sea. Before Brexit, Mr Johnson had vowed never to accept such an arrangement. The broken promises have left Unionists feeling betrayed. They had seen in Mr Poots, a creationist from the DUPs hardline wing, someone who would stop the compromises and concessions, says David Campbell, the chairman of the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC), a (legal) umbrella group for illegal paramilitary organisations.

The row comes at the point in the year when it is most likely to inflame tensions. July 12th is Unionisms biggest festival, celebrating the victory in 1690 of William of Orange, a Dutch Protestant, over his rival for the English throne, the Catholic King James. The Reverend Mervyn Gibson, Grand Secretary of the Orange Order, which promotes loyalty to the United Kingdom, says the Order will look at what action well take after the 12th. Options include protests, breaking off relations with the Irish government and seeking to bring down the devolved executive.

This year, the centenary of Irelands partition, should have been a gala one for Unionists, who have managed to stave off all calls for reunification. The most recent results of a long-running survey, Northern Ireland Life and Times, published on June 10th, found that just 30% of people said they would vote for Irish unity tomorrow. But it also found that Protestant support for the power-sharing that re-established the parliament in Stormont in 2007 had fallen from 72% that year to 58% now.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the relatively moderate Westminster MP expected to become both the DUPs leader and the first minister, will struggle to reimpose party discipline. A snap election for the devolved assembly is a distinct possibility, and would probably see Sinn Fein emerge as the largest party. Doug Beattie, the leader of the less hardline Ulster Unionist Party, has said that if Stormont cannot be restored after an election, devolution will be over for good. But power-sharing is probably the only way that Northern Ireland can survive within the United Kingdom in the long term.

Even staunch Unionists are struggling to keep the faith. We are the unwanted children of the Union, says Wallace Thompson, one of the founders of the DUP in 1971. Unionism is in a dark place, and the old shibboleths and No Surrender slogans simply dont cut it any more.

For more coverage of matters relating to Brexit, visit our Brexit hub

A version of this article was published online on June 21st 2021

This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "A Unionist Pootsch"

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After Brexit, devolution in Northern Ireland is in a parlous state - The Economist

Will the EU necessarily welcome all British tourists back to its beaches?

The UK eased travel to several holiday destinations this week, but will they welcome British tourists? And when are vaccination passports being introduced? Plus we reflect on five years since the Brexit referendum and how it has reshaped the country, its economy and the political parties.Presented by Sebastian Payne, with George Parker, Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe, Robert Shrimsley and special guest Anand Menon. Produced by Howie Shannon. The sound engineer was Sean McGarrity.

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Travel woes and Brexit five years on - Financial Times

Lord David Frost said the City of London needs to get on and do its own thing after Brexit as he suggested equivalence might be unlikely. The Brexit minister also told a House of Lords committee last month that Brussels will continue to take decisions on equivalence that are in their interest. UK financial firms lost their wide ranging access to EU markets when the Brexit transition period came to an end on December 31 and now have to navigate a patchwork of regulations from member states.

The only way the City of London can regain its pre-Brexit access to the EU is if Brussels unilaterally grants regulatory equivalence.

However, the bloc believes the UK is destined to diverge from its financial services regulations and has withheld the designation.

John Garvey, global head of financial services at PwC, told the Telegraph that although he doesnt expect a deal imminently, there will come a point when Brussels realises an agreement is in its own interests.

In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, Italian MEP Antonio Maria Rinaldi accused the EU of trying to punish the City of London because of Brexit.

However, he insisted Brussels will eventually fail, as the City will come out stronger thanks to Britain's withdrawal from the bloc.

He explained: "The City will be even more powerful thanks to Brexit and for a very simple reason: the markets there are much faster and smarter.

"The EU can put up whatever imposition it wants but in the end it is the competition of the markets that will triumph.

"And since the tradition of the City is superior to any other place, it will remain the main European financial centre."

He added: "I wouldn't worry that much... they said five years ago that Brexit was going to be an apocalypse.

"I think it has been a godsend, instead."

Despite admitting that the trade deal struck with the EU on Christmas Eve failed to meet his ambitions on financial services, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has always dismissed the warnings European financial hubs could steal away the City of London's supremacy.

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In 2018, Mr Johnson was hailing London's financial sector during a speech at the UK-Africa Investment Summit when he took the swipe at German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The Prime Minister said: "One Tube stop away and youll be in Canary Wharf where, along with its older siblings in the City, trillions of pounds in capital are being raised for every venture you can think of, from French construction to African telecoms to American cancer-curing drugs.

"It may give you some idea of the scale of the financial services in London when I say Canary Wharf alone is a bigger banking centre than the whole of Frankfurt.

"We have the tech, tech of all kinds and we have, by far, the biggest tech sector anywhere in this hemisphere."

Earlier this year, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak hailed the potential for a "Big Bang 2.0" in the City of London after Brexit as he hinted that the Government is ready to slash red tape.

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The Chancellor raised the prospect of a Margaret Thatcher-style surge for the City.

He stressed that while equivalence and other elements were important, his main focus would be to make sure the Square Mile "remains the most dynamic place to do financial services anywhere in the world".

In an interview with City AM, Mr Sunak said "there are many things in the deal that are good for financial services".

He cited the free flow of data, business travel, and agreements on legal and professional services - as well as suggesting a deal on regulation will be done soon.

Mr Sunak told the publication: "There is strong language on future regulatory cooperation, and putting in place a Memorandum of Understanding in reasonably short order to have that structured regulatory dialogue.

"And there's a forum for future equivalence decisions as well. That's a positive.

"But regardless of all that, I think it's important that we get on and make sure that the City of London remains the most dynamic place to do financial services anywhere in the world."

Referring to Brexit enthusiasts who claim that the City can now enjoy another Nineties' style leap forward, Mr Sunak said they "make a really, really good point", adding that people were free to "call it Big Bang 2.0 or whatever".

He added: "If you look at the history of the City stretching even further back than that, it has always constantly innovated, adapted and evolved to changing circumstances and thrived and prospered as a result. And I think it will continue to do that."

Mr Sunak said the Treasury would "play a role in that, and all the businesses and the people involved will help us do that".

However, the Chancellor also played down the need for fundamental change in the City, pointing to its natural advantages and the "culture and creativity of our people".

He noted: "Regulation is important, of course, as is timezone, as is language. All of those things are important."

Read more:

EU's Brexit punishment rubbished by Italian MEP: 'City of London will come out stronger!' - Daily Express

Watch live as Rishi Sunak faces MPs' questions in parliament

Official figures released today show the benefit to the UK economy of a new proposed trade deal with Asian countries is small compared to the losses expected from Brexit.

The Government launched negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Monday, which Boris Johnson said would open up unparalleled opportunities.

Figures released today by the Department for International Trade (DfT) forecast a boost to UK GDP of 1.8bn in 15 years time from the partnership, compared to the 4 per cent long-term hit to GDP forecast by the governments independent Office for Budget Responsibility as a result of Brexit.

It comes as Mr Johnson has today been warned that the EU could slow down exports or shut off the flow of important business data in the event of a trade war.

If the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol worsened then Brussels has a number of levers that could cause significant economic consequences for the UK, said Jonathan Portes, of the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank.

The prime ministers former aide Dominic Cummings ordered senior civil servants to ignore protocol by immediately sending a 530,000 grant to a data research project, leaked emails show.

In messages seen by the Guardian, the BBC and Source Material, the political strategist urged them to transfer the funds to Our World in Data, a not-for-profit organisation. The move had the backing of health secretary Matt Hancock, it has been reported.

Writing to senior officials about the transfer, Mr Cummings wrote: No procurement, no lawyers, no meetings, no delay please just send immediately.

This comes after Mr Cummings told a Commons committee last month that the procurement system is completely unfit for its purposes in Whitehall.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 19:55

Sir David Attenborough has accused the government of making short-sighted political and financial attacks against British television channels.

The famous naturalists intervention comes as ministers are reportedly preparing to privatise Channel 4.

The 95-year-old television presenter announced his support for the British Broadcasting Challenge campaign, which has warned against the move.

In a letter to culture secretary Oliver Downden, the group said it is calling for an open and transparent debate on the future of public service broadcasting.

On Tuesday, Alex Mahon, Channel 4s chief executive, said government should not do anything irreversible which could possibly damage some of those things that we do for the sector.

She added that the broadcaster is financially in a really strong position, explaining that the government should only act to make Channel 4 stronger.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 19:30

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald will meet her DUP counterpart next week.

The TD for Dublin Central tweeted that she had already spoken with the newly-elected DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson.

We will meet early next week. There is much work to be done. Powersharing must deliver for all our people, she said.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 19:08

Labour has called on the Conservatives to return 900,000 in donations received from a former CEO of a company under investigation for alleged bribery, corruption and money-laundering.

Ayman Asfari, who ran the oil firm Petrofact for almost two decades, and his wife Sawsan gave almost 1 million to the party between 2009 and 2017.

The final donation was given on 4 May 2017, a matter of days before the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) started its investigation.

In response, Anneliese Dodds, the chair of the Labour Party, said: The Conservatives must explain why they accepted so much cash from Ayman Asfari a man described by the scandal-hit Petrofac as the personification of many of its achievements.

The public will also be wondering why senior Tory ministers including a sitting prime minister then lobbied on behalf of this company, which is now under investigation for bribery and corruption.

This is about the company that the Conservatives are keeping and where theyre getting their money from. They should do the right thing and hand back that cash.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 18:25

There was a 13 per cent rise in the number of households affected by thebenefit capfrom November to February, official figures show.

A leading charity has blamed the spike on people losing their jobs or working hours during the pandemic.

The ChildPoverty Action Group (CPAG) estimates that scrapping the cap would lift 100,000childrenout of deep poverty, with its chief executive calling the policy an unjust punishment on families.

Our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin reports:

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 18:00

Some Conservative MPs are concerned that their partys annual conference will be cancelled, as tickets have yet to go on sale.

William Wragg, the Tory MP for Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester, is among those who fear the event will not take place in Manchester as planned from 3 to 6 October.

Addressing the speaker, he said: How might we be reassured that the conference recess will be used for its intended purpose rather than simply as a means to keep backbenchers away from this House asking awkward questions?

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 17:34

Northern Irelands first minister Paul Givan has echoed the newly-elected DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donalds words by criticising the protocol.

Speaking at Stormont, Mr Givan said this part of the Brexit deal is not working and needs to go because of the disruption it is causing.

Stormont has a job to do on the bread and butter issues, but absolutely the Northern Ireland protocol creates instability because of the way it has violated the workings of the internal United Kingdom market, he said.

Mr Givan, who has only been in the role for a matter of days, added that he expects Sir Jeffrey to replace him as first minister, following the MPs appointment as the head of the DUP.

The Sinn Fein politician Conor Murphy accused the DUP of creating its own problems with the protocol arrangements. They wouldnt have been necessary if it hadnt been for the new leader of the DUP and his party colleagues pushing the hardest possible Brexit with the Tory party, that is why the protocol was necessary, to try and undo some of that damage, he said.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 17:15

The Scottish government has rejected a demand from Manchester for compensation, after Holyrood introduced a travel ban affecting the north-west of England at short notice.

Deputy first minister John Swinney said compensation was not appropriate.

Speaking in Holyrood on Tuesday, Mr Swinney said: Travel to the north west of England has previously been prohibited last year, before local levels regulations were introduced and no compensation was offered.

We are all responsible for putting in place, in our respective parts of the United Kingdom, the financial support to arrangements for business and thats exactly what the government will continue to do here in Scotland.

Mr Burnham has accused the Scottish government of being hypocritical, claiming it acted without consulting him, something Holyrood complains about in its treatment from Westminster.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 16:53

No part of Scotland will see further lockdown easing next week, Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed.

Instead, the target is for the whole country to be moved to the lowest lockdown level by 19 July. This would represent a significant step back to normality, the first minister said.

We want to move beyond Level 0 as quickly as it is prudent to do so, she added, saying that 9 August was a provisional date for the removal of all remaining legal restrictions.

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 16:33

A cross-party group of MPs have failed in a bid to launch a legal challenge against the government for its alleged failure to investigate potential Russian interference in British elections.

Mr Justice Swift refused to allow a full hearing, saying: The claimants concerns exist at the level of politics, not as a matter of law.

Our home affairs correspondent Lizzie Dearden has the story:

Rory Sullivan22 June 2021 16:13

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Brexit news live: Pacific trade deal worth tiny fraction of UKs EU losses as Johnson warned over exports - The Independent

Scotland has right to choose different future.

The harm done to Scotlands economy, trade, population, education and governance by Brexit is becoming increasingly clear, a new paper finds.

External Affairs Secretary Angus Robertson said once the public health crisis is over, Scotland should exercise the right to choose its own future away from the damage and dislocation of Brexit.

A new summary of analysis, published to mark the EU Referendum just over five years ago, shows UK trade levels have fallen considerably since Brexit, with decreases in trade with the EU larger than the declines seen in non-EU trade.

The UK Government pressed ahead with Brexit, declining to extend the transition period and despite the Covid-19 pandemic, and overall UK trade levels have fallen from 266.4 billion in the first four months of 2018 to 237.6 billion in the equivalent period in 2021.

A third of all manufacturing businesses in Scotland have faced increased costs due to red tape, and nearly half have faced increased transportation costs.

As predicted by Scottish Government modelling, severe and visible impacts are disproportionately concentrated on the food and drink sector, particularly seafood, meat and dairy, as well as beverages and textiles.

Brexit has also affected Scotlands workforce, with initial evidence suggesting a decline in EU nationals working in Scotland, with potentially negative consequences for the hospitality, agricultural and meat processing sectors.

Scottish universities have seen substantial declines in numbers of students and research grants - the UK Governments decision to withdraw from the Erasmus Plus exchange programme ends our participation in a scheme that has helped transform the lives of thousands of students, schoolchildren, teachers adult learners and young people.

In addition, the paper finds the actions of the UK Government followingEU Exit is doing real and lasting damage to agreed and well established governance arrangements, undermining the Scottish Parliament.

External Affairs Secretary Angus Robertson said:

Five years ago Scotland did not vote for Brexit. As this review makes it clear: Scotland is now enduring an ever-lengthening catalogue of harms, inflicted on this country against its wishes.

This document makes for stark reading for anyone in Scotland concerned about this countrys future welfare.

From trade and business to education, to the futures and livelihoods of our fellow European citizens, from our farmers, our security, and devolution itself - all have been negatively impacted.

Its also increasingly apparent the trade deals being struck by the UK Government are simply not compensating for the loss of EU markets for Scottish businesses.

The response to the Covid-19 pandemic remains paramount, but it is clear Brexit means Scotland has to consider its future path when the public health crisis is over.

Then the people of this country can choose a future trapped in the damaging turmoil of the UK Governments escalating hard Brexit - or as an independent country free to join its friends and partners in Europe.

Background

The Scottish Governments new summary of Brexit analysis can be read online.

The Scottish Government has this week called for the UK Government to clear the backlog of applications to the EU Settlement Scheme: UK Government must clear EU Settlement backlog - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

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Damaging legacy of Brexit - gov.scot - Scottish Government News

And with a row about the cost continuing to simmer, senior Royals are unlikely to use the vessel, announced last month, for family trips either. A source close to the royal household said neither Prince of Wales nor the Duke of Cambridge cared much for what Downing Street is calling a national flagship to replace the Royal Yacht Britannia, scrapped in 1997.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is understood to be refusing the foot the bill for the project, and the Ministry of Defence and the departments of business and trade also likewise reluctant.

The inter-departmental wrangling has made Charles and William even less keen to be involved.

The insider told The Sunday Times: No one wants this vessel at the palace.

Charles doesnt want it. William has no interest in it. He has no interest in naval things at all.

All this controversy has just put them off even more.

The source added: Will they go on board to promote trade if theyre in the area? Of course.

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They explained: People in the MoD are asking No 10, What do you want us to scrap to pay for it?

Theyre threatening to cut another surface vessel or some F-35 jets.

Boris is furious about the whole thing. He loves the plan.

Mr Johnson wants to use to ship to promote trade deals and more generally, his ambitious global Britain vision.

Other political sources claim Mr Johnson has been told on a number of occasions the plan is a disaster in the making.

Unveiling his plans last year, the Prime Minister said: "This new national flagship will be the first vessel of its kind in the world, reflecting the UK's burgeoning status as a great, independent maritime trading nation.

"Every aspect of the ship, from its build to the businesses it showcases on board, will represent and promote the best of British - a clear and powerful symbol of our commitment to be an active player on the world stage."

However, the Sunday Times claimed Queen Elizabeth is opposed to any idea of naming the ship after husband Prince Philip, who died in April at the age of 99.

One senior Royal source suggested it was considered to be too grand" a symbol to be used by the monarchy in the modern age.

It is not something we have asked for.

A separate Palace source added: "It is a government decision.

Buckingham Palace has not been involved in the decision, but we respect it."

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Prince Charles and Prince William not interested in Boris 200million Brexit flagship - Express

The report found that the speed and magnitude of the relocation of European equities trading to Amsterdam have exceeded expectations, by already tripling in volume in the first months of 2021.

Brexit has returned the trading in European equities and derivatives to Amsterdam, according to research conducted by De Argumentenfabriek and commissioned by the Capital Amsterdam Foundation.

The United Kingdoms withdrawal from the European Union on 31 December 2020, however, has not yet resulted in a major relocation of people and jobs from London to the Netherlands.

The outflow from London to the EU is expected to continue as there is little chance that the EU will grant equivalent access rights to financial companies based in the UK anytime soon.

Asset managers and banks have mostly relocated their activities from London to Dublin, Frankfurt Paris, and Luxembourg, but hardly to Amsterdam.

Strict Dutch remuneration rules have probably played a role in this, but the Dutch capital markets will benefit from further European integration and harmonization.

The report found that the speed and magnitude of the relocation of European equities trading to Amsterdam have exceeded expectations, by already tripling in volume in the first months of 2021.

In the run-up to Brexit, many financial companies have set up a minimum viable presence in the EU as a fall-back option in the event of a hard Brexit in the realm of financial services.

The hardest possible Brexit as expected in the 2019 report has indeed materialized. After Brexit, companies have started to expand this presence, De Argumentenfabriek stated.

The Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA) estimates that around 1,000 new jobs have been created so far by financial firms that relocated their operations to Amsterdam since Britain left the EU. The number of jobs is expected to continue to grow.

The UK is expected to gradually move away from the EU in terms of regulation to protect and grow their non-EU related activities. This creates the risk that there will also be competition within the EU in the field of regulation, because individual Member States expand European regulations (gold plating) or weaken them (lead plating).

The Dutch capital markets benefit from a level playing field within the EU, so the Dutch government will have to focus on further integration and harmonization of European financial regulations. Before Brexit, the Netherlands collaborated a lot with the UK in this area; now that it has fallen away as a partner, new allies will have to be sought to defend these interests.

Read more:

'Brexit' returned European equities and derivatives to Amsterdam, study finds - FinanceFeeds

THE Republic's port inspections have rejected fewer than one per cent of animal food products, plants and live animals imported from Britain since Brexit.

Since the new border controls on imports came in on January 1, Department of Agriculture inspectors have processed 24,481 consignments, 97 per cent at Dublin Port.

According to The Irish Times 27,918 checks were carried out in the 24-week period to June 20 and just 175 consignments (0.7 per cent) were rejected.

Of those rejected 90 were products of plant origin, 63 were products of animal origin and 16 did not comply with EU rules on pesticides.

Most of the rejections were of imports not accompanied by the required health certificate and in most cases the product was destroyed.

The department told the paper the rejected products were usually `just part of a load being carried by a heavy goods vehicle'.

The sanitary and phytosanitary checks are carried out the EU-designated border control posts at Dublin Port, Dublin Airport, Rosslare Europort and Shannon Airport of products of food and plant origin as well as live animals arriving from Britain.

No consignments of live animal imports were rejected.

Hazel Sheridan, head of the department's import control division, said inspectors are focusing on documentary checks, although live animal imports and 60-70 per cent of plant products are subject to identity checks.

She said these physical checks will become the focus "in the latter part of the year".

"It was pretty bumpy in the early days, but we are definitely on a much smoother road now. We have been impressed by how quickly businesses have adapted," she told the paper, describing it as "the most significant change since the EU single market was created".

"It was always going to be a very big shock to the trading system. It has been a real testament to everybody how quickly businesses have adapted and just how agile and adaptive businesses, hauliers and operators in the supply chain are in Ireland and the UK."

However, Ms Sheridan said traders should prepare for the "next shock" from October 1 when Britain begins applying border controls to exports from Ireland.

Businesses are expected to stockpile and "front-load products" ahead of that deadline.

"One of the key messages for businesses is to do things as early as you possibly can," Ms Sheridan said.

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Republic's Brexit inspections reject just 0.7 per cent of UK imports - The Irish News