Daily Archives: June 4, 2021

Study: Patients Receiving Dialysis at Higher Risk of COVID-19 Infection – Pharmacy Times

Posted: June 4, 2021 at 3:47 pm

Patients receiving dialysis are required to receive their treatments in clinics multiple times a week, meaning they were unable to effectively self-isolate.

Patients receiving dialysis treatments for kidney failure faced increased risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a study published in the Clinical Journal of the American Society of NephrologyCJASN. These individuals are required to receive their treatments in clinics multiple times a week, meaning they were unable to effectively self-isolate.1

In order to conduct this study, investigators examined information on 5755 patients who received dialysis in London at 51 different clinics. Between March 2 and May 31, 2020, 17% a total of 990of the studied (17%) patients tested positive for COVID-19, and 465 (8%) were admitted to hospitals with suspected COVID-19. The risk of COVID-19 was higher in patients who were older, had diabetes, lived in local communities with higher COVID-19 rates, and received treatment at dialysis clinics that served a larger number of patients. Conversely, risks were lower for patients who received dialysis in clinics with a higher number of available side rooms and that had mask policies for asymptomatic patients. The researchers found no independent association with sex, ethnicity, or measures of deprivation.1

Taken together, the findings confirm the high rates of symptomatic COVID-19 among patients receiving in-center dialysis and suggest sources of transmission both within dialysis units and patients' home communities, said Ben Caplin, MBChB, PhD, in a press release. The work also suggests that in addition to isolation of confirmed cases, addressing factors that might reduce transmission from patients without suspected or confirmed disease might provide an additional opportunity to further modify the impact of COVID-19 in this population.1

The researchers note that the findings remained consistent when adjusting for community burden of disease, which suggests that COVID-19 disease risk associated with dialysis treatment overwhelms social and demographic factors. They recommend any planning for future waves of disease take account of how these results may be affected by the wider availability of testing patients that are asymptomatic, patients and those providing care using surgical facemasks, and the potential impact of vaccination and/or acquired immunity.2

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The Origin of COVID-19 and Preventing the Next Pandemic – War on the Rocks

Posted: at 3:47 pm

Did COVID-19 originate with bats or scientists? Most experts continue to contend that the most likely origin of SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19) is a natural zoonotic spillover event between an animal reservoir (most likely bats) and humans. But over the last year of the pandemic, another theory has gained momentum: The SARS-CoV-2 virus may have resulted from an accident in a laboratory in China where scientists were working with closely related viruses. In the wake of the World Health Organization-led mission to Wuhan to examine the origins of the pandemic, proponents of the lab-leak theory have charged the investigative team with conflicts of interest, and suggested that the teams efforts failed to rule out the possibility of a lab release. Some have gone on to claim that scientists have maintained a conspiracy of silence about the possibility of a lab release in order to protect their funding or avoid a backlash from their government.

The desire to identify the origins of the novel coronavirus is perfectly understandable. COVID-19 has killed millions of people and upended everyday life. Theres an intuitive sense that finding out how the pandemic began might help to prevent another one from occurring. The Biden administration is redoubling efforts to determine the origins of COVID-19 after the intelligence community indicated that it had insufficient information to make a determination.

However, while answering the question of where the novel coronavirus came from is important, many of the most important policy decisions the United States needs to make to prevent future pandemics do not depend on viral origins. Very little about pandemic response or preparedness for future pandemics turns on the particulars of how this one started. Laboratory biosafety was already an issue before the pandemic, and the origins of this particular virus dont change the need for reform to prevent these rare but potentially catastrophic events. Regardless of how COVID-19 began, U.S. policy priorities should focus on both identifying and preventing the spread of zoonotic pathogens and bolstering safety and security in high-containment laboratories.

Preparing for the Next Pandemic

Whatever the origins of this pandemic, the United States has its work cut out to prepare for the next one. Lets assume, for the sake of argument, that the lab hypothesis is true. Efforts to prepare for natural spillover events do not then become less important. Since the 1940s, roughly 350 emerging infectious diseases have been identified. Of these, nearly three-quarters have zoonotic origins. Our understanding of how such diseases emerge is incomplete, but we know that there are a number of human behaviors that are likely contributing to this pattern: increasing demand for animal protein, factory farming and other agricultural intensification measures, wildlife trade, urbanization, extraction industries, changes in the food supply chain, and pet ownership, as well as increases in temperature, humidity, and other factors related to global climate change. Zoonotic crossover events are not limited to China, or even to Asia. Emerging infectious diseases have appeared all over the world: Zika in Latin America, Ebola virus disease in sub-Saharan Africa, H1N1 in bird reservoirs as disparate as Vietnam or Mexico; and henipaviruses in Australia. Coronaviruses have reservoirs in China, yes, but also in Africa, the Americas, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

If investigators are able to conclusively prove that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in a laboratory conducting research into coronaviruses, humanity will continue to confront the risk that a future spillover will result in another pandemic that is equally or more devastating. Fortunately, there are steps that the scientific community can take to manage this risk, including using predictive surveillance and developing other zoonotic risk-assessment tools. Early detection of such pathogens can help experts to isolate and contain them so that they do not spread widely. We can also promote behavioral change in high-risk populations and fund research into universal vaccines for zoonotic frequent-flyers like coronaviruses.

Lets say the converse is true, however. If evidence is found that satisfies even the most ardent lab-leak proponent that COVID-19 originated in an animal population, does that obviate the need to address laboratory biosafety and biosecurity? Absolutely not. Even as COVID-19 emerged, questions arose about the role of high-containment labs around the world. As the number of these labs increases, the risk of a consequential accident also increases.

Policymakers have debated biological safety in high-containment labs for most of this century. Biosafety, biosecurity, and awareness-raising among life scientists are ongoing topics of discussion at the Biological Weapons Convention. Biosafety is a major focus in the Global Health Security Agenda. The World Health Organization has maintained a guide for the responsible conduct of life sciences research with dual-use potential for more than a decade. In short, biosafety and biosecurity receive significant policymaker attention at the highest levels of international organizations, but that awareness doesnt necessarily translate into national-level action to manage biological risk and ensure protection from accidents. Even the states that have been most vocal in driving discussion of biosafety and biosecurity in international spheres have struggled with their own biorisk management. The United States has had a number of high profile laboratory incidents over the years, involving anthrax, highly pathogenic avian influenza, and smallpox, even as it has continued to develop and expand its high-containment lab capacity already the largest in the world.

Transparency and Biosecurity

Critics might claim that lab releases in the United States can be investigated transparently, while the potential COVID-19 release in China cannot. Indeed, China has put severe restrictions on research into the origins of the virus and prohibited scientists from speaking with journalists. During the World Health Organization-led investigation, members of the team were prevented from accessing patient data and other important research. After Australia pressed for an independent inquiry into the origins of the pandemic, China responded with threats and economic retaliation.

However, opacity surrounding public health is not a problem that is limited to authoritarian societies like China. Globally, biosafety norms are poorly implemented and reviews of biosafety and biosecurity are often conducted in secret. Even in the United States, there is no coordinated approach to laboratory biosafety or reporting laboratory accidents. As a result, public awareness of biosafety incidents often relies on local engagement between towns and specific labs, or comes from journalists filing Freedom of Information requests. The U.S. Government Accountability Office has consistently criticized U.S. biological security and safety for decades, but even recent developments in regulating the funding of potentially high-consequence gain of function research have been criticized as lacking transparency around the makeup of the review board, decision-making procedure, and notification of funded experiments. If this is the case for the United States, it is easy to imagine that other countries with less experience with biosafety and security might see it as politically advantageous to remain mum about incidents or problems. Clearly, more work is needed around the world to make sure that all countries have biorisk management policies and appropriate oversight measures in place, and that theyre open about the problems they encounter and their efforts to solve them.

Global norms and incentives are where the rubber hits the road for pandemic preparedness. Its reasonable in fact, vital to seek new ways to prevent laboratory accidents in the future. The worlds chief solution to this pandemic was the development of vaccines, a process driven by life sciences research, much of which took place in high-containment labs. Consequently, many political leaders may well choose to invest in more high-level biological research in the near future. If the solution to a lab release is more laboratory science, it makes sense to ensure that that science is carried out in a safe and secure manner. There is room for all countries to do better, and the United States should consider revitalizing its approach to promoting biosafety and biosecurity in the wake of the pandemic regardless of its origins.

As a final point, if the lab release hypothesis is true, we really shouldnt be surprised. An analysis in 2016 of gain of function research by Gryphon Scientific operated on the assumption that, eventually, a laboratory release of a potential pandemic pathogen would occur, a small number of those would lead to a local cluster, and a small number of those would seed a global pandemic. In other words, if COVID-19 did result from a lab release in China, it might simply have been bad luck, on top of whatever biosafety lapses China may have had which is all the more reason why, in addition to strengthening laboratory safety and security, the international community should do everything it can to develop appropriate infrastructure to handle a future pandemic.

Looking Ahead

There is one important scenario in which it would be absolutely vital to know the origins of COVID-19 in order to decide what to do next. If, as some scientists and politicians have suggested, the pandemic stemmed from a deliberate attempt to develop a biological warfare agent, this would have serious implications for the Biological Weapons Convention and the broader norm against the use of disease as a weapon. If a state party had violated its commitment to the treaty by developing biological weapons, the international community would need to determine how to hold that government accountable for its non-compliance a process with which states parties to the treaty have struggled in the past. Even treaties that have extensive verification provisions have grappled with what to do when a state party has demonstrably violated a treatys prohibitions. While some might criticize the Biological Weapons Convention for lacking a mechanism to verify compliance, such mechanisms dont solve the knotty political problem of what to do when flagrant violations take place. Moreover, the deliberate use of biological weapons could inspire copycat behavior by others, leading to the weakening of the norm against the use of disease as a weapon. Fortunately, to our knowledge no serious analysis of COVID-19s origins even from those who support a laboratory release hypothesis has concluded that anyone deliberately introduced the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the global population.

While its important to discover the origins of the pandemic, theres a danger in taking these efforts too far. Some have argued that conclusively demonstrating the pandemics origins in a lab release might help nations seeking to encourage China to pay financial reparations for the global economic cost of the virus to make their case. This could be a problematic approach. Not only is there no legal precedent under international law to hold a country liable for a pandemic, but in the long run this might be an unwise road for the United States, given its own history of laboratory accidents and safety lapses. Insisting that China bears responsibility for the pandemic and should be expected to pay compensation to other countries or the families of coronavirus victims could backfire in the future if the United States finds itself attempting to mitigate the consequences from a laboratory accident. Furthermore, legal efforts to blame China could fuel additional xenophobia against Asian-Americans, or even undermine U.S. foreign policy interests.

Meanwhile, the focus on where the virus came from should not divert attention from whats even more important preparing for the next pandemic. Political finger-pointing might make it far more difficult for researchers to collaborate internationally on pandemic preparedness efforts. Experts are already noting the possible implications for the National Institutes of Health and other research institutions of the growing tension between the United States and China, exacerbated by the allegations and skepticism around the viruss origins. This pandemic is far from over, despite the rollout of vaccines in the United States, and new potential pandemic diseases are already testing global health efforts elsewhere in the world. American experts therefore need to keep a laser-like focus on the real enemy: the causative agents of disease.

There will be far more blame to share if the international community becomes so fixated on the circumstances surrounding this unique case that its unable to see the big picture and predict or prepare for the next pandemic. Theres work that can be done in that respect while maintaining agnosticism about the origins of COVID-19. Regardless of the source, we need to be better prepared to respond to the next virus.

Amanda Moodie is a policy fellow at the National Defense Universitys Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD Center) in Washington, D.C. Her policy support at the center focuses on the international legal regimes that regulate the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. She regularly serves as a member of the U.S. delegation to meetings of the states parties of the Biological Weapons Convention.

Nicholas G. Evans is an assistant professor in the Department of Philosophy at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, where he teaches biomedical ethics and security studies. He has been published in the British Medical Journal, Nonproliferation Review, and ELife. His book, The Ethics of Neuroscience and National Security, was released with Routledge in May 2021.

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not an official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

Image: Xinhua (Photo by Fei Maohua)

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Immokalee family loses 4th loved one to COVID-19, have special wish – Wink News

Posted: at 3:47 pm

IMMOKALEE

A heartbroken family in Immokalee is grappling with the loss of a fourth loved one to COVID-19.

Their father fought the virus for weeks and hoped to have a bilateral lung transplant, but Raul Diaz died last Saturday.

The Diaz family is preparing for his funeral, and they want to lay him to rest in style. He never got his dream car, so they hope someone with it can lead his funeral.

Its been a tragedy what weve been through, son Luis Diaz said.

In May, the family grasped onto faith. They cheered when their dad was his own battle with COVID-19 and was taken to Tampa from NCH.

Raul was approved for a bilateral lung transplant because COVID-19 destroyed his own. In order to have the surgery, he needed to get better first.

But now, the family is grieving their fourth loss to COVID-19.

My grandfather passed away. My uncle passed away. My grandmother passed away, and my father passed away Saturday, son Wilfredo Diaz said.

They want to make their dads dream come true even in death.

Theyre hoping someone out there has a 1957 Chevy Bel Air, their dads dream car, to lead the way during his funeral.

My father was my mechanic, my father was my electrician, my father was my plumber, my father was my everything, and when this first started, my car had messed up, and it was very difficult to not be able to reach out to him to come fix something for me, Luis said. I have depended on him my entire life, and it is very hard with what we are going through.

If you happen to own the Rauls dream car, the Diaz family would love to hear from you. They can be reached at (239) 503-0579.

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When a Surgeon Became a Covid-19 Patient: I Had Never Faced the Reality of Death – The New York Times

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Dr. Emond in 2008 had lured Dr. Kato away from the University of Miami, for his rare expertise in intestinal transplants and so-called ex vivo operations for cancer, in which the surgeon cuts out abdominal organs to get at hard-to-reach tumors, and then sews the organs back in. Most important, Dr. Emond saw in Dr. Kato a willingness to push the limits of what could be done surgically to help patients.

He brought his culture of innovation, Dr. Emond said. And his personal capability, his ability to work for long hours, never quitting, never giving up, no matter how difficult the situation, carrying out operations that many would deem impossible.

In his first year at Columbia, Dr. Kato and his team operated successfully on a 7-year-old girl, Heather McNamara, whose family had been told by several other hospitals that her abdominal cancer was inoperable. The surgery, which involved removing six organs and then putting them back in, took 23 hours.

More and more patients from around the country, and around the world, began seeking out Dr. Kato for operations that other hospitals could not or would not perform. He had also begun making trips to Venezuela to perform liver transplants for children and teach the procedure to local surgeons, and he created a foundation to help support the work there as well as in other Latin American countries.

As Dr. Katos colleagues struggled to save him, a waiting list of surgical patients clung to hopes that he would soon be able to save them.

Gradually, Dr. Pereira said, there were signs of recovery.

You come in early in the morning to see him, he said. The hospital hallways are empty and everybodys looking at each other, scared and anxious. You go into the intensive care unit dreading bad news, and the team is giving you a sort of hopeful thumbs-up that maybe hes looking better.

Dr. Kato spent about a month on a ventilator, and a week on ECMO. Like many people with severe Covid, he was tormented by frightening and vivid hallucinations and delusions. In one, he was arrested at the Battle of Waterloo. In another, he had been deliberately infected with anthrax; only a hospital in Antwerp could save him, but he could not get there. He saw the white light that some people describe after near-death experiences. I felt like I died, he said.

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North Dakota saw continuing decline in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations in the last week – INFORUM

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The following are North Dakota's COVID-19 case rates, deaths and hospitalizations during the week of Saturday, May 29 to Friday, June 4.

From May 29 to June 4, North Dakota reported 285 additional positive cases, and active cases declined by 83 during the week.

As of Friday, Burleigh County had at least 80 people known to be infected with the virus the most of North Dakota's 53 counties. Following Burleigh County is Ward County with 54 cases, and Cass County with 43 known cases.

The state's rolling 14-day average positivity rate for its COVID-19 cases sits at 2.96%, the lowest since March.

ACTIVE HOSPITALIZATIONS AS OF JUNE 4: 24

DEATHS, NEWLY REPORTED: 0

TOTAL DEATHS THROUGHOUT PANDEMIC: 1,515

Hospitalizations steadily declined during the week of May 29, with 24 residents hospitalized because of COVID-19 as of Friday. The majority of those currently hospitalized in North Dakota due to COVID-19 are in their 60s and 70s.

Even though the Department of Health reported three additional COVID-19 deaths in the last week, no deaths have been reported in June so far.

FIRST DOSE ADMINISTERED AS OF JUNE 3: 294,624 (49.4% of population)

COMPLETED SERIES (TWO DOSES) AS OF JUNE 3: 275,383 (46.1% of population)

A total of 4,948 shots were administered from May 29 to June 3, the latest data available. The number of North Dakotans seeking vaccinations has stalled, and last month North Dakota sent 70,000 vaccine doses to other states because so few North Dakotans were seeking the shot.

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged parents to vaccinate their teenagers, because nationwide the hospitalization rate among adolescents has increased, according to the Washington Post. In May, the CDC updated its guidance and recommended that everyone 12 and older receive the vaccine. The Pfizer vaccine, after vigorous testing, was approved for adolescents last month.

The Department of Health urges residents to seek more information at http://www.health.nd.gov/covidvaccinelocator.

Readers can reach reporter Michelle Griffith, a Report for America corps member, at mgriffith@forumcomm.com.

As a public service, weve opened this article to everyone regardless of subscription status. If this coverage is important to you, please consider supporting local journalism by clicking on the subscribe button in the upper righthand corner of the homepage.

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How Fear and Covid-19 Tore Apart One New Delhi Neighborhood – The New York Times

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Produced by Lauren Leatherby, Craig Allen, Josh Holder, Allison McCann, Jeffrey Furticella and Andrew Rodriguez.

How fear, neglect and Covid-19 tore apart a single New Delhi neighborhood.

Asha lit up the neighborhood. The 54-year-old woman, who insisted people call her by one name, took care of neighbors when they got sick. She planted trees up and down the block. She was friendly with just about everybody at the local market.

When Covid-19 swept through Ms. Ashas New Delhi suburb, Nangli Vihar, the death toll didnt set any records. The neighborhood is not the poorest, the worst-hit or the most crowded in the city. It could have been any street in New Delhi.

But as the virus ricocheted from house to house, it did more than kill. With hospitals full and the government largely absent, fear began to spread. People shut their doors, shattering many of the relationships that make up a neighborhood.

Now New Delhi is starting to reopen after suffering one of the worlds deadliest outbreaks. We spent a week with the residents of a few close-knit blocks in Nangli Vihar as they begin to emerge from fear and isolation and often after tremendous loss.

Neeraj Kumar lost

his father on May 14.

Ms. Asha lived

on this street.

Birat Devi died

almost a week after

getting vaccinated.

People lined up outside a clinic,

complaining of fever and

Covid-like symptoms.

Someone died here

recently. Neighbors

suspect Covid.

Ajay Pal Singh and his family got Covid

in April after his wife returned from

a visit to a Hindu holy site.

Desperate for an income,

Shanno keeps her shop open

but faces stigma.

On this corner alone, more

than a dozen shops were

shuttered during the lockdown.

Mukesh Diwakar, a blacksmith, has

been out of work for almost two months.

His family sometimes goes hungry.

Ms. Asha lived

on this street.

Neeraj Kumar lost

his father on May 14.

Birat Devi died

almost a week after

getting vaccinated.

People lined up outside a

clinic, complaining of fever

and Covid-like symptoms.

Someone died here

recently. Neighbors

suspect Covid.

Ajay Pal Singh and his family got Covid

in April after his wife returned from

a visit to a Hindu holy site.

Desperate for an income,

Shanno keeps her shop open

but faces stigma.

On this corner alone, more

than a dozen shops were

shuttered during the lockdown.

Mukesh Diwakar, a blacksmith, has

been out of work for almost two months.

His family sometimes goes hungry.

Neeraj Kumar lost

his father on May 14.

Ms. Asha lived

on this street.

Birat Devi died

almost a week after

getting vaccinated.

People lined up outside a

clinic, complaining of fever

and Covid-like symptoms.

Someone died here

recently. Neighbors

suspect Covid.

Ajay Pal Singh and his family got Covid

in April after his wife returned from

a visit to a Hindu holy site.

Desperate for an income,

Shanno keeps her shop open

but faces stigma.

On this corner alone, more than

a dozen shops were shuttered

during the lockdown.

Mukesh Diwakar, a blacksmith, has

been out of work for almost two months.

His family sometimes goes hungry.

Neeraj Kumar lost

his father on May 14.

Ms. Asha lived

on this street.

Birat Devi died

almost a week

after getting

vaccinated.

People lined up outside

a clinic with fever and

Covid-like symptoms.

Someone died here

recently. Neighbors

suspect Covid.

This family got Covid

in April after a

visit to a holy site.

Mukesh Diwakar has

been out of work for

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Small business COVID-19 relief brought over $1B to Tysons area – Tysons Reporter

Posted: at 3:47 pm

A federal relief program that recently ended contributed over $1.1 billion to the Tysons area to help workers.

The money came through the CARES Act, the COVID-19 relief package passed by Congress in 2020 that created the Paycheck Protection Program. In the area, it helped around 1,700 businesses, nonprofits, and sole proprietors with forgivable loans of $150,000 and more.

According to data from the Small Business Administration, which oversaw the program, the Tysons-area businesses and nonprofits that landed the most money in terms of a single award were:

Businesses that received less than $150,000 werent included in the $1.1 billion figure that Tysons Reporter calculated using SBA data. Other businesses may have also received multiple awards but arent part of the list of top awards for an individual loan.

The money was given in the form of forgivable loans. To be forgiven, at least 60% of the money must have gone to payroll.

Details regarding businesses that received the money are available through online databases, such as ProPublica and the SBA. The program ended Monday (May 31).

The Paycheck Protection Program provided over 8.5 million small businesses and nonprofits the lifeline they needed to survive during a once-in-[a]-generation economic crisis, SBA administrator Isabella Casillas Guzman said in a news release on Tuesday (June 1). Ive heard story after story from small business owners across the country about how PPP funds helped them keep the lights on, pay their employees and gave them hope.

The PPP rollout came with some controversy. After reports showed that some loans went to large corporations, hundreds of companies returned the money. The SBA says that 96% of the loans went to businesses with fewer than 20 employees.

Companies that received an initial PPP loan and met other criteria were able to get a second loan. The average amount awarded this year by the program overall was $42,000.

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Tracking COVID-19 in Alaska: 46 cases and no deaths reported Thursday – Anchorage Daily News

Posted: at 3:47 pm

We're making this important information available without a subscription as a public service. But we depend on reader support to do this work. Please consider supporting independent journalism in Alaska, at just $3.69 a week for an online subscription.

Alaskas average daily case counts are now trending down significantly statewide. The state last month went from a high alert level to an intermediate alert level for the first time since September, indicating less spread and fewer cases overall, though a couple regions remain at a high alert level due to higher case rates.

By Thursday, at least 320,315 people about 53% of Alaskans 12 and older had received at least their first dose of vaccine. At least 281,397 people about 46% of eligible Alaskans were considered fully vaccinated, according to the states vaccine monitoring dashboard.

Also by Thursday, there were 20 people with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in hospitals throughout the state, far below a peak in late 2020.

Of the 44 cases reported among Alaska residents Wednesday, there were 10 in Anchorage; seven in Wasilla; seven in Juneau; five in Fairbanks; three in the Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area; two in Tok; one in Chugiak; one in Eagle River; one in Seward; one in Soldotna; one in Nikiski; one in North Pole; one in Delta Junction; one in Palmer; one in Ketchikan; and one in Wrangell.

There was also one nonresident case in Anchorage as well as one in Wasilla.

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NASA Will Return to Venus After More Than 30 years, and May Be on the Search for Extraterrestrial Life – Entrepreneur

Posted: at 3:46 pm

The space agency announced its plans to visit the hottest planet in the solar system.

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June3, 20213 min read

While Elon Musk is focused on colonizing Mars, NASA has another target: Venus. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration announced that it will return to the hottest planet in the solar system. The last mission to Earth's neighbor was in 1994, while the next explorations will take place at the end of this decade.

This past Wednesday, NASA announced that sometime between 2028 and 2030 they will launch two missions that will visit Venus. This would be the first direct exploration of the planet in 34 years.

Related: This German Scientist Predicted That a Person Named 'Elon' Would Take Humanity to Mars

These expeditions are the latest projects in NASA's Discovery Program, a kind of internal incubator for planetary science missions.

A mission will be called VERITAS ('truth' in Latin), which is short for "Venus Emissivity, Radio Science, InSAR, Topography, and Spectroscopy." This spacecraft is planned to orbit the planet to map and study it from above. The main objective will be to understand how Venus evolved to reach surface temperatures of almost 500 degrees Celsiusand an atmosphere so dense that almost no known organism could withstand it.

The other is called DAVINCI +, short for "Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging Plus." This mission will attempt to land on the surface to sample the atmosphere and to understand its chemical composition.

"These two sister missions both aim to understand how Venus became an inferno-like world capable of melting lead at the surface," said Bill Nelson, NASA administrator, at a press conference."They will offer the entire science community a chance to investigate a planet we havent been to in more than 30 years."

Related: This Mexican Will Work With NASA to Discover if We Are Alone in the Universe

During the press conference, NASA did not mention that any of the missions look for traces of alien life. However, the agency previously warned of the possibility of microbial life floating in the atmosphere of Venus. In addition, a controversial finding last year suggested that a gas associated with life may be present there.

The study prompted then-NASA administrator Jim Brindenstine to declare that "it is time to prioritize Venus," as quoted by The New York Times.

Indeed, the missions to Venus took precedence over two other proposals. One of them, called Trident, would fly over Neptune's largest moon. The other, named Io Volcanic Observer, would make 10 flybys of Jupiter's moon Io.

Related: Now You Can Take a Ride on Jeff Bezos's Rocket for $2.8 million

Currently, NASA's Discovery Program includes the Lucy and Psyche missions to explore Trojan asteroids near Jupiter and a metal-rich asteroid orbiting beyond Mars. The two missions it has active today are the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the InSight module on Mars.

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Life in 2050: A Glimpse at Space in the Future – Part II – Interesting Engineering

Posted: at 3:46 pm

Hello, and welcome back to our "Life in 2050" series. In our other installments, we explored how the world of warfare, economics, and life at homecould drastically change by mid-century. In the previous installment, we began to look at how space exploration and commercial space activities would be changing as well.

This includes the commercialization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO), orbital gateway stations, bases on the Moon, asteroid mining, and the industrialization of the Earth-Moon system. However, humanity's future in space reaches far beyond that and could include missions to Mars, the outer solar system, and telescopes observing the earliest moments of the universe.

Exploration will also be mirrored in terms of commercial exploitation and (perhaps) even the creation of settlementson other planets. Between the Moon, Mars, the main asteroid belt, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, there are many tantalizing locations where humans could establish self-sustaining cities that would allow for further expansion and exploration.

We may even find life in our own cosmic backyard and explore the closest stars to our Sun. With any luck, we may also obtain the first definitive evidence that there is life beyond our solar system, and perhaps see that it is looking back at us. All this and more is expected to become a reality by 2050 - or, at least, to be well on its way to becoming a reality.

Mars will be a major focal point for space agencies over the next three decades. In addition to increased robotic exploration, three major space agencies are planning to send astronauts to Mars between the 2030s and 2060s. NASA is expected to lead the way with its "Moon to Mars" program, which will build on Project Artemis, the Lunar Gateway, and other key components.

For instance, NASA will be using the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft to send astronauts back to the Moon starting in 2024. The core of the Gateway - the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) - will also be launched by 2024 using a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Paired with a reusable lunar lander, this orbital habitat will allow for long-duration missions to the lunar surface. Between 2024 and 2028, NASA also intends to add the International Habitation Module (I-HAB), the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT), and possibly more modules to the Gateway.

But the greatest addition will be the Deep-Space Transport (DST), which is to be added to the Gateway by the early 2030s. The design of the DST calls for a reusable spacecraft that relies on Solar-Electric Propulsion (SEP) and has a crew module that can support astronauts for the six to nine-month journey to Mars (or is capable of being paired with the Orion spacecraft).

The DST will fly astronauts from lunar orbit to Mars, where they will rendezvous with a second station - like Lockheed Martin's Mars Base Camp concept. This station will also be paired with a reusable lander that will take the astronauts to and from the surface of Mars. If all goes as planned, NASA will have conducted the first human exploration missions to Mars before the 2030s are over.

Roscosmos and the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) have announced similar plans to send crews to Mars by way of the Moon. While not a lot of details have been forthcoming, Roscosmos has stated that such a mission would likely happen in the 2040-2045 timeframe.

China, meanwhile, emphasizes that it plans to send robotic missions to Mars well into the 2030s, followed by the first crewed missions between 2040 and 2060. Both space agencies conducted training exercises - the Mars500 simulations - between 2007 and 2011 to see how astronauts would contend with the long-term isolation that such missions would entail.

Elon Musk has also been quite vocal about his plans to send humans to Mars during the 2020s. It was for this purpose that he founded SpaceX in 2001 and has been working towards the realization of the Starship super-heavy flight system. Initially, this system was known as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which reflected its ultimate purpose.

Once the Starship is certified for commercial and human spaceflight, Musk plans to conduct regular launches to the Moon and Mars. Previously, Musk indicated that SpaceX was targetted a launch window for 2022, where two Starships would fly to Mars.

This mission would scout for water sources and land cargo, power, mining, and life support systems on the surface for future missions. The first crewed mission would take place by 2024, with two Starships transporting equipment and supplies, a propellant production plant, and a crew to begin work on a base.

Subsequent missions would follow every two years during a period of "opposition," when Earth and Mars are closest to each other, in terms of their orbit around the Sun. As with many past estimates by Musk, these timetables have proven a bit optimistic. However, Musk maintains that Starships could be making regular trips to Mars sometime this decade.

A more recent estimate indicates that the scout mission could take place by 2024 and a crewed mission by 2026. In January 2020, Musk indicated that SpaceX's long-term goal is to build 100 Starships a year for 10 years to create a fleet of 1000. This fleet would then haul 100 megatons of cargo to Mars or 100,000 people every two years.

After 20 years, Musk claims that it would be possible to create a sustainable city on Mars, which he hopes would reach a population of 1 million people by 2050. This city, and other proposed settlements, could lead to the rise of a Martian economy - with its own cryptocurrency ("Marscoin"), a tourism industry, and perhaps a mining industry.

With the necessary infrastructure - such as orbital stations and refueling depots - regular flights to and from Earth would be possible. All of this could eventually lead to the recognition of Mars as a "free planet," with its own representation at the United Nations, or an autonomous government.

While fully-reusable launch vehicles and spaceplanes will revolutionize transportation on Earth (allowing for suborbital intercontinental flights), interplanetary transportation could also be a reality by 2050. This will be facilitated by the rise of fusion rockets by the mid-2030s, which could cut the travel time to Mars down to just 90 days (1/3the time it takes using conventional thrusters).

Nuclear reactors were investigated and testedas a possible means of propulsion throughout the Cold War era. One example of results from this experimentation was the Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (NERVA), developed jointly by NASA and the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). As part of Project Rover, NERVA was one of several concepts tested and validated between 1961 and 1973.

Unfortunately, the program was canceled in 1973 before any flight tests could take place, as part of the shift that began shortly after the end of the Apollo Era. In recent years, with the renewed interest in missions that go beyond LEO, space agencies around the world have taken a fresh look at these devices and are working on their own updated versions.

They also come in various forms, but the most common proposals fall under the general heading of either nuclear-thermal or nuclear-electricpropulsion (NEP/NEC). For the former, a slow-fission reactor is used to heat hydrogen fuel, and the resulting plasma is directed through nozzles to generate thrust.

In the case of the latter, the nuclear reactor generates electricity, which is then used to power an engine - most likely, a Hall-Effect thruster (aka. ion engine). This concept builds on NASA's successful implementation of Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP), which will see considerable use with NASA's proposed missions to Mars.

With a network of "rapid transit" between Earth, the Moon, and Mars, humanity will be able to expand the commercialization and industrialization of the Earth-Moon system to include Mars and its moons (Phobos and Deimos). While it's unlikely that Mars will be a major commercial center by 2050, it's entirely possible that the foundations of this possible future will be established by then.

Beyond Gateways in Earth orbit, settlements on the Moon, and a potential city on Mars, the commercial space industry and non-profit space organizations also have plans to createmassive colonies in space. These plans build on proposals made since the early 20th century, particularly the works of Gerard K. O'Neil, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, Werhner von Braun, and others.

These include the O'Neil Cylinder, a long tube-shaped structure that rotates to simulate gravity for its inhabitants. Similarly, the Von Braun Wheel (aka. Stanford Torus) calls for a pinwheel-shaped station that spins to simulate gravity in one or more rings. Other elaborations on these concepts have been suggested as an alternative to settling on planets.

During the 2017,Planetary Science Vision 2050 Workshop, Ukrainian astrophysicist Valeriy Yakovlev explained why rotating habitats in space were preferable to settling (and terraforming) Mars:

"It is usually associated with the creation of colonies on the surface of Mars and planetary satellites. However, a radical obstacle to this is the unavailability of human beings to live in conditions of the reduced gravity of the Moon and Mars, being in their earthly bodies, at least in the next decades. The hope for [medical developments] will not cancel the physical degradation of the muscles, bones, and the whole organism.

"The rehabilitation in centrifuges is [a] less expedient solution compared with the ship-biosphere where it is possible to provide a substantially constant imitation of the normal gravity and protection from any harmful influences of the space environment. If the path of space exploration is to create a colony on Mars and furthermore the subsequent attempts to terraform the planet, it will lead to the unjustified loss of time and money and increase the known risks of human civilization."

Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon and Blue Origin, has also voiced his preference for building habitats in space rather than colonizing Mars and other bodies. In February of 2019, during a speech before the Yale Club, Bezos referenced O'Neil Cylinders and why he thought they were the way of the future:

"The solar system can support a trillion humans, and then we'd have 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. Think how incredible and dynamic that civilization will be... I don't think we'll live on planets, by the way. I think we'll live in giant O'Neal-style space colonies. Gerard O'Neil, decades ago, came up with this idea."

These facilities would both benefit and aid from the creation of a thriving space construction and asteroid mining industry. By the midway mark of the 21st century, much of our mining and manufacturing could be taking place beyond Earth. By accessing the abundant resources of space, we could reduce the stress on our environment while also ushering in a period of post-scarcity.

A number of missions are scheduled to explore asteroids in the solar system in the next decades too. There's the Lucy probe, which is planned to launch on Oct. 16, 2021, on a twelve-year journey to study seven different asteroids. The first will be located in the main asteroid belt, followed by six of Jupiter's "Trojans" - asteroids that share the planet's orbit around the Sun.

These asteroids are among the oldest objects in the solar system and are composed of material left over from the protoplanetary disk. The mission is therefore named in honor of the hominid skeleton "Lucy" - the remains of the Australopithecus woman found in Ethiopia in 1974 - because the mission will be studying the "fossils of planet formation."

There's also the Psyche mission, which will launch in August of 2022 and arrive around the main belt asteroid of the same name (16 Psyche) by 2026. This metallic asteroid is thought to be the remains of a protoplanet's core that became exposed after a massive collision. The study of this asteroid is therefore expected to reveal information about early planet formation.

In addition, the study of this body could shed light on how planetary magnetic fields operate, which are key to planetary habitability. There has also been considerable discussion about how Psyche could prove to be a very lucrative prospect for asteroid mining, since it contains abundant amounts of iron, nickel, and precious metals, with an estimated value of $10 quintillion USD (that's 101018 dollars),

By 2050, with sufficient infrastructure established between the Earth-Moon system and Mars, asteroid prospectors are likely to begin looking to the main belt. While asteroid mining and industrial operations are not likely to be established in this region until the latter half of the century, it's a safe bet that the commercial space industry will be looking to expand there.

A number of missions are scheduled to take place between the 2030s and 2050 that will search for life in the outer solar system. These missions will focus on "Ocean Worlds," which refers to moons and planetoids in the solar system that are thought to have warm-water oceans beneath their icy surfaces.

Examples include three of Jupiter's Galilean moons, Europa, Ganymede, and possibly Callisto; Saturn's moons Titan, Enceladus, Dione, and possibly Mimas; Neptune's largest moon Triton, and maybe even Pluto. Uranus' moons Titania, Oberon, and Ariel are also thought to be promising in this regard.

Due to the powerful gravity of their parent planets, these moons are thought to experience tidal heating in their interiors. This is suspected to lead to hydrothermal activity, which allows for oceans to exist at their core-mantle boundaries. This same hydrothermal activity could also be providing the necessary energy and chemical elements for basic life forms.

In other cases, such as Uranus' satellites, it is the decay of radioactive elements in their rocky/metallic interiors that could be responsible. Assuming the presence of enough salt and ammonia, all of these moons are thought to be able to maintain surface oceans that could harbor life.

Currently, the majority of astrobiological research here in the solar system is focused on Mars, which is considered the most habitable place beyond Earth and likely once had liquid water flowing on its surface. However, there are many in the scientific community who believe that extraterrestrial life is more likely to be found inside the moons.

At present, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) plan to dispatch robotic missions to explore some of these satellites. First, there's the European Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE), which will launch in June of 2022 and arrive around Jupiter by October of 2029. Once there, it will study Callisto, Ganymede, and Europa, with a focus on Ganymede.

This will be followed by NASA's Europa Clipper, an orbiter scheduled to launch by October 10,2024, and arrive around Europa by April 11, 2030. Once there, the Clipper mission will gather data on the moon's composition and evolution. Other objectives include examining plume activities to learn more about the interior and scouting possible locations for a future lander mission.

Known as the Europa Lander, this proposal calls for a follow-up mission that would launch separately in 2027. It would arrive by the early 2030s and examine Europa's surface ice and its plume activity (and maybe obtain samples), the purpose of which will be to look for biosignatures that came from Europa's interior.

Next up is the Dragonfly mission, a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) drone that will explore Titan for signs of possible life. This vehicle relies on four rotors and is powered by a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) - aka. a nuclear battery. This will allow the Dragonfly to study Titan's surface and atmosphere to learn more about its mysterious environment.

This mission is currently being developed at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL) and will launch in June 2027, arriving at Titan by 2034 (and landing on the surface by 2036). Its objectives include the study of Titan's methane lakes, atmosphere, rich prebiotic surface environment, and organic chemistry (which could be indications of life).

NASA has also entertained the idea of conducting an astrobiology mission to Enceladus that would follow up on the Cassini mission's accomplishments. If realized, the Enceladus Life Finder (ELF) would examine the plumes emanating from the moon's southern polar region to look for biosignatures that would indicate the presence of life inside the moon.

In 2018, NASA signed an agreement with Breakthrough Initiatives (BI) to develop a mission concept known as Breakthrough Enceladus. The mission would launch sometime in the 2020s, arriving around Enceladus about a decade later. Alongside other mission concepts, the moons of Jupiter and Saturn would be a focal point in the search for extraterrestrial life throughout the 2030s.

With any luck, these missions could lead to the discovery of compelling evidence of life beyond Earth. Or they might find enough evidence to suggest that more ambitious missions are needed, such as a deep-sea submarine for Europa, the Titan Mare Explorer (TME), and other concepts that are also being considered. By 2050, we may learn that life can thrive in all kinds of exotic environments.

By 2050, it's also possible that the first interstellar missions will be sent to explore the nearest star systems to our Sun. In all likelihood, the first mission to go would be Breakthrough Starshot, a program established by Breakthrough Initiatives for a gram-scale spacecraft (dubbed the StarChip) that would be towed by a large lightsail.

The smartphone-sized StarChip would be equipped with tiny sensors, a guidance and navigation system, tiny thrusters, and a radio antenna. It would then be accelerated by an Earth-based laser array to 20 percent the speed of light (37,282 mps; 60,000 km/s), allowing it to reach the Alpha Centauri (4.37 light-years away) system in just 20 years.

Astronomers have already confirmed the presence of two exoplanets around the system's trinary (Proxima Centauri), one of which (Proxima b) is considered potentially habitable. A recent study conducted by an international team affiliated with BI found that Alpha Centauri could also have a potentially habitable planet orbiting it (which is yet to be confirmed).

According to statements made in 2016 byBreakthrough Initiatives founder YuriMilner, Starshot could be ready to launch by 2036. This means that the people of Earth would be getting the first images and data from the mission by 2060. This data could include the first up-close look of a habitable planet beyond Earth, and who knows what else?

In November 2021, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will finally be launched into space. This next-generation space observatory will have the highest infrared resolution and sensitivity of any space telescope to date. This will allow it to see farther out into space (and hence, back in time) to some of the earliest events in cosmic history.

In 2022, the ESA will launch Euclid, the successor to the Gaia Observatory - which will obtain data on two billion galaxies across 10 billion light-years of space. This will be used to create a 3D map of the local area of the universe to provide vital clues about the role of dark matter and dark energy in cosmic evolution.

These will be followed by the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope - or Roman Space Telescope (RST) for short - which is scheduled to launch sometime in 2025. With the same sensitivity as Hubble, but over 100 times the surveying power, the RST will identify tens of thousands of exoplanets and investigate many of the same cosmic mysteries as the JWST.

In 2026, the ESA will launch itsPlanetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) observatory. Using a series of small, optically fast, wide-field telescopes, PLATO will search for exoplanets and characterize their atmospheres to determine if they could be habitable. Beyond these missions, there are other next-generation observatories being considered for the 2030s.

These include NASA's Origins Space Telescope (OST), the Habitable Exoplanet Imager (HabEx), which have a proposed launch date of 2035. There's also the Lynx X-ray Surveyor that could launch in 2036, followed by the Large Ultraviolet/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) in 2039. These missions would take over from NASA's Great Observatoriessatellites and build on their accomplishments.

NASA and other space agencies are also working towards the realization ofin-space assembly (ISA) of space telescopes, where individual components will be sent to orbit and assembled there. There's also the concept of observatories made up of swarms of smaller telescope mirrors ("swarm telescopes") that would be capable of assembling themselves autonomously.

Of course, there are also many ground-based observatories that will be operational within the next decade. Examples include the Vera C Rubin Observatory - formerly known as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) - which will gather its first light in 2022/2023. Using a three-mirror 27.5 ft (8.4 m) Simonyi Survey Telescope, this observatory will photograph the entire sky every few nights.

In addition to exploring the mysteries of dark matter and dark energy, Rubin will also take an inventory of objects in the solar system, map out the Milky Way, and monitor supernovae, fast radio bursts (FRBs), gamma-ray bursts, and other "transient events." It will also contribute immensely to the study of interstellar objects (like 'Oumuamua) a rapidly growing field.

Other soon-to-be-operational observatories include the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) and the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) in Chile, which are scheduled to be ready by 2025 and 2029 (respectively). There's also the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) in Hawaii, which is expected to gather its first images by 2027.

These observatories will be equipped with cutting-edge optics, interferometers, coronographs, and adaptive optics. The resulting sensitivity and resolution will allow for direct imaging studies of exoplanets, allowing astronomers to characterize their atmospheres and conclude whether or not they could support life (as we know it).

Before 2050, the ESO is likely to reconsider its plans for the Overwhelmingly Large Telescope (OWL), which will have an aperture measuring ~330 ft (100 m) and sensitivity beyond any existing telescope. In the realm of radio astronomy, existing projects and new arrays will expand the search for life and its origins in the cosmos.

In 2018, the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) began observing the cosmos with its one-hundred, 65 ft (20 m) cylindrical parabolic reflector dishes. In 2020, China's Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST) - the world's largest single-aperture radio telescope - also became fully operational for the first time.

These telescopes will prove instrumental in the coming years and decades as they investigate the cosmic mysteries associated with neutral hydrogen, fast-radio-bursts (FRBs), pulsars, and quasars. They will also be vital to the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) network and the ongoing Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).

Speaking of which, Breakthrough Listen will have finished its survey of the local universe by 2026. However, the analysis of the gathered data (which will be shared with the public in a series of data releases) is likely to last for much longer. What's more, follow-up studies will likely continue well into the 2030s and 2040s wherever Listen finds identifies potential technosignatures.

There are also plans for a successor to the Very Large Array (VLA) in New Mexico. Known as the Next-Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA), it will consist of two-hundred and forty-four, 59 ft (18 m) radio dishes spread over an area of about 5,505 mi (8,860 km), with an additional nineteen, 20 ft (6 m) dishes that make up a short-spacing array at the center.

Similarly, the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) will have completed construction by 2030. This massive radio telescope will be made up of radio telescopes located in Australia and South Africa that will be capable of gathering radio data from a section of the sky that measures 1 square km (~1 million m; 10.76 million ft).

These observatories will pick up where the venerable Arecibo Observatory and VLA left off, conducting research related to the SETI, and investigating cosmic mysteries like star system formation, gravitational waves, black holes, and the distribution of the chemical building blocks of life throughout the cosmos.

Between now and the middle of this century, some very exciting things will (or are expected) to happen in space. Space agencies, partnered with private space consortiums, will create vital infrastructure between Earth and the Moon and extend the reach of human exploration all the way to Mars.

The private space sector will grow to commercialize Low Earth Orbit, the Earth-Moon System, and create the foundations of a lunar (and maybe even Martian) economy. From this foundation, humanity will be able to become a truly "interplanetary species" and will begin planning ventures to the outer Solar System.

Humanity will also return to the Moon after forty years, and not as a single nation. More and more space agencies will place boots on the lunar surface by 2050 and establish bases that will allow them to stay. Mars will follow, with China, Russia, the ESA, and India all putting boots on the Red Planet before the 2050s are over.

Next-generation space telescopes and ground-based observatories will peer farther into space (and back in time) than ever before. Astronomers and cosmologists will update their theories on how galaxies and the large-scale structure of the cosmos evolved, and perhaps discover how life in our universe emerged.

Tens of thousands of new exoplanets for study, the ability to characterize exoplanet environments, the first confirmed habitable planets, and possibly the first evidence of life beyond Earth. While it may be too much to hope for, it's possible that these search efforts will even discover the first evidence of intelligent life beyond Earth.

In fact, you could say that space is where the most exciting changes will be happening in the next three decades.

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Life in 2050: A Glimpse at Space in the Future - Part II - Interesting Engineering

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