Daily Archives: March 26, 2021

Qualifying for Municipal Elections in Mississippi opened Monday and runs through February 5th.

The Mississippi Republican Party expanded its reach into cities and towns during the 2017 cycle, seating more Republicans in City Halls across the state than ever before. This was largely due to targeted outreach in communities where voters routinely supported Republicans in state and national elections by a greater margin, making voting for Republicans on the local level a natural fit.

Mississippi Democrats are against the wall in many areas, having lost even more local officials through party switching since the 2017 cycle at the municipal, county and state levels. Democrats have lost once firmly held seats at the local level, even in locales where the demographics would indicate a different outcome on the surface.

For example: George Flaggs in Vicksburg dropped the Democrat label in 2018, declaring himself as an Independent after serving 25 years in the Mississippi Legislature as a Democrat, saying then that it was in order that I may build better relationships to prosperity for the people of Vicksburg and Mississippi. He is running for re-election.

Hattiesburg saw its mayoral seat change from Democrat to Independent in 2017 with Toby Barkers win. Barker, who served in the Legislature as a Republican, defeated incumbent Johnny DuPree to shift the dynamic within the Hub City government. Barker is expected to seek re-election.

Longtime Ocean Springs Mayor Connie Moran lost her re-election bid in 2017 to a political newcomer in Republican Shea Dobson. Now, the Coast city where Republicans were never truly competitive in the mayoral race will have a crowded Republican Primary to see who will lead the community for the next four years. Dobson will face State Rep. Jeff Guice and Melanie Allen, with others who may throw their name in the hat.

No Democrat names of substance have yet emerged in these areas that would indicate the possibility of flipping the mayoral seats or boards in these municipalities.

It appears the trend away from the Democratic Party may continue in this 2021 cycle as Democrats are once again seeing some of its up and comers decide to forego the party label on the first day of municipal qualifying.

The Daily Journal reported Monday that Oxford Mayor Robin Tannehill will seek re-election as an Independent, dropping her Democratic Party affiliation.

I have thought and prayed a lot about this decision to run as an independent, and I feel like its where my heart is, Tannehill was quoted as saying by the Daily Journal. I think its where our community is. Our community is a community that works to make Oxford, Mississippi, the best not the Democrats the best or the Republicans the best.

Oxford, Starkville and Tupelo are three of the largest cities in North Mississippi, as the Daily Journal notes, and all three have had Democrat mayors in recent years. However, Taylor Vance writes, the decision by Tannehill in Oxford to run as an independent and Jason Shelton in Tupelo not to run at all deals a blow against Democrat hopes of holding all three offices.

In Tupelo, Shelton, once viewed as a contender for statewide office, announced in the fall of 2020 that he would not seek re-election. Since then, at least two Republicans have announced that they will vie for the mayoral seat Tupelo Councilman Markel Whittington and Lee County Supervisor Todd Jordan. It will be a challenge for Democrats to hold this seat.

A bit South down Highway 45, outspoken Meridian City Councilman and formerly active Democrat Weston Lindemann said Monday that he would qualify as an Independent and run for Mayor of the Queen City. According to the Meridian Star, Democrat Mayor Percy Bland has qualified for re-election. Lindemann and Bland have routinely butted heads over the last four years, with Lindemann frequently taking issue with how Blands administration has operated the police department and questioning the hiring practices within City Hall.

One bright spot for Democrats other than the City of Jackson, where the left will certainly maintain their control, may be in Starkville. Mayor Lynn Spruill has announced for intention to seek re-election, but has not said whether she will run again as a Democrat, although that is expected.

The state Democratic Party has expressed their intent to be competitive in local races in the 2021 cycle, hoping to compete and win despite recent losses both at the ballot box and through party switching. However, that effort, at least based on the latest reports, appears to be largely based on race. That focus has thus far been a losing proposition for Democrats in Mississippi.

Still, Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Tyree Irving recently told Politico that one of his first goals is to oust Greenwoods incumbent Independent mayor, Carolyn McAdams.

<>

Politico couched Irvings comments in this way: More than 73 percent of the population of Greenwood, Irvings hometown and the site of Emmitt Tills death, is Black. McAdams is white. McAdams was first elected in 2009, beating incumbent Sheriel Perkins, Greenwoods first Black mayor. Shes been reelected repeatedly as an independent.

Irving wants to replace McAdams with a progressive Democrat.

###

Municipal Primary Elections in Mississippi are set for April 6th, with the Municipal General Elections scheduled for June 8th.

If you are considering a run for a municipal office in your city or town, the Mississippi Secretary of States office has published a Candidate Qualifying Guide here and the Mississippi Ethics Commission has distributed a flyer here outlining what candidates need to know to remain compliant.

Continue reading here:

As municipal qualifying begins, Democrats in Mississippi ...

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference in Los Angeles, Calif. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

SACRAMENTO Gov. Gavin Newsom's camp has one message for Democrats considering a California recall bid: Don't even think about it.

The mere hint of a candidacy draws immediate condemnation from Newsom attack dog Sean Clegg, while other Newsom surrogates are making clear publicly and privately that any Democratic challenger will become persona non grata in the party.

Minutes after POLITICO reported Tuesday that former Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer was surveying voters on his recall chances, Clegg tweeted that Steyer doesnt want to be the cynical, vulture-investing billionaire who bet against Democratic unity so Trump Republicans can take CA."

After former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called for California schools to reopen immediately amid talk of a potential candidacy, Clegg last week fired off a clear rebuke: My old friend Antonio will embarrass himself and forever poison his legacy if he runs, he wrote.

Thats how you lose," Clegg, a strategist for Newsom, said in an interview. We need to hold our base."

It is all but certain that California will have its second gubernatorial recall ever, likely this fall, based on an official state signature tally released last week. The state's unique recall system lends itself to a delicate intraparty dance. California asks two questions: first, do you want to recall Newsom, and second, who should replace him if the recall is successful? The rules don't allow Newsom to appear on that replacement list of contenders who would take his job.

As the prospect of a Villaraigosa candidacy gained steam in recent weeks, other Newsom allies tried to blunt that momentum. Former Assembly Speaker Fabian Nez declined to share his private conversations with Villaraigosa and stressed that he does not speak for the former mayor, but Nez predicted that at the end of the day, all of the Democratic establishment and Democratic activists are going to be on the side of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

We cant make the same mistake twice, Nez said, invoking the ill-fated entry of Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the 2003 recall won by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. I dont see Democrats repeating that exercise again.

If Democrats play their cards wrong and Newsom is recalled without a leading Democrat on the ballot as an option, a high-name ID Republican could take the top job with a quarter of the vote in one of the nations bluest states.

The only time I worry about a Republican [not] winning this seat is if one credible Democrat gets in, said Anne Dunsmore, who runs one of the recall committees that are on the verge of qualifying the election.

One Democratic lawmaker said this week that California's two-question approach needs an overhaul. "The crazy thing about our system is that many more people can vote to keep the incumbent in office than the person who ends up replacing the incumbent," said Sen. Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica).

The topic of a Democrat potentially getting into the race is the prevailing obsession among elected officials, donors and political consultants in California. There are two schools of thought. In one view, not running a backup candidate would be an unforgivable oversight that could allow a Republican to waltz into office with a plurality of the vote. In the other, a Democrats entry would signal weakness and disunity when Newsom needs his allies more than ever potentially ensuring the second question is necessary.

The dance around the recall forces California Democrats to balance two elemental political motivations: self-preservation and opportunism. Any ambitious Democrat who runs and fails would topple off the career ladder into political oblivion. No one has forgotten the implosion of Bustamante after he jumped into the 2003 race. But the recall also offers a tantalizing chance to leapfrog into the governors office.

For now, Democrats have projected unity behind Newsom. At event after event, Democrats seen as potential contenders have pledged their fealty to the governor and lambasted the recall as a partisan distraction.

The governors team has also sought to squelch a challenge from the left, reaching out to progressive California Democrat Rep. Ro Khanna to enlist the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and rolling out an endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). They're trying to signal that Newsom may have sometimes fallen short, but he is far superior to a Republican.

I made the case [to Sanders] that he really needed to weigh in, that this is a Republican attempt to take over California, Khanna said in an interview. I understand there may be some progressive disappointment in [progressive] goals not being achieved yet, such as single-payer, but this is the time we really need to unify against the recall.

Newsom remains in a relatively strong position, with an approval rating hovering around 50 percent far better than Gov. Gray Davis had before he was ousted by voters. Democrats contemplating a run are likely to wait and see where Newsom stands closer to a likely fall candidate filing deadline.

If Im wondering, Am I going to go sailing in 90 days? Im going to wait 89 days and see what the weather is, said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant who worked for Schwarzenegger.

If Newsom cant muster a majority to fend off being recalled, a Democrat would enjoy powerful advantages on the second question of whom to replace the governor. California remains an overwhelmingly Democratic state.

The larger risk-benefit calculus could favor the entry of a Democrat who doesnt currently hold public office and thus has less to lose. Political observers are closely watching Villaraigosa, who lost to Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Villaraigosa, a public affairs partner at Mercury, has name recognition and could activate a political support network in Los Angeles, a power base that would counterbalance Newsoms Bay Area roots.

The former mayor has been coy about his intentions, criticizing the recall without explicitly ruling out a run. But he has been an outspoken critic of continued school closures, a major liability for Newsom. Education policy was a dividing line in the 2018 primary, with charter allies spending millions to boost Villaraigosa and unions rallying to Newsoms defense.

Steyer also looms. The Democratic former presidential candidate has a long history of wading into California politics, no office to lose but considerable personal wealth to fund a campaign.

And there's always a nuclear option.

If polls suggest Newsom is in serious trouble as the recall draws closer, the governor could resign from office. That would allow Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis to take over the job and short-circuit the recall tied to Newsom while undoubtedly raising the hackles of Republicans.

"In September, he could be doing great and well proceed," said Democratic political strategist Christine Pelosi, daughter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "But if hes really underwater, it may be that no Democrat could win. Then, he should step down as governor and Eleni Kounalakis should be the governor, and they should cancel the election. In that case, the Democratic Party would retain the governorship."

View post:

Newsom swats away Democratic challengers. Will his party live to regret it? - POLITICO

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks took office in January after the Iowa State Board of Canvassers certified her victory over Democratic candidate Rita Hart. She won by six votes after a full recount. Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images hide caption

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks took office in January after the Iowa State Board of Canvassers certified her victory over Democratic candidate Rita Hart. She won by six votes after a full recount.

The House Administration Committee is reviewing a challenge brought by defeated Iowa Democrat Rita Hart against freshman Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won the race by just six votes.

Attorneys for the two candidates submitted initial legal briefs to the panel on Monday. In a terse 23-page brief, Miller-Meeks' counsel broadly denied Hart's claims and said the burden was on Hart to prove that a state-certified election should be overturned.

"We don't have to prove anything at this point, and that's something I think is important to emphasize: The congresswoman has a certificate of election, and that demonstrates that she is the winner of the race under Iowa law," Alan Ostergren, an attorney representing Miller-Meeks in the complaint, told reporters on Monday.

Hart's team alleges that there are 22 ballots that should have been counted in the election and that if they had, she would have won by nine votes. Hart's campaign has cited examples including five absentee ballots cast in her favor that were not counted because they were not properly sealed. However, the race was certified by the Iowa State Board of Canvassers with bipartisan support after a full recount.

Rita Hart filed in late December to challenge the results under the Federal Contested Elections Act. Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images hide caption

In a more detailed 71-page brief, Hart's attorney, Marc Elias, argues that ballots should not have been throw out if the error was the result of election administrators or "circumstances outside the voter's control."

"Contestant Hart initiated this contested election case to vindicate the promise of our democratic system: that the representatives who serve us have been selected by the votes of their constituents, not the errors and caprices of election administrators," the brief states.

"It is the committee's constitutional duty to investigate all of these claims," said Chairwoman Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., at a March 10 committee meeting. "Today none of us can state with confidence who actually won this election." The Constitution gives both the House and Senate authority to decide how to seat its members, and the Federal Contested Elections Act grants the authority to review House elections to the House Administration Committee.

While it is not unusual for defeated candidates in close races to petition the House to review their election, the House has almost never sided in favor of a petitioner. Since 1933, 110 campaigns have requested that the panel review an election, according to a committee aide. In all but three cases, those petitions were rejected, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. In one case, the House agreed to seat no one and left the seat vacant.

"Our committee should not be moving forward with overturning our colleague's state-certified election. [Miller-Meeks] is a sitting member of Congress with all of the same rights and privileges as each and every one of us," said Rep. Rodney Davis of Illinois, the top Republican on the committee, at the March 10 meeting. Republicans have noted that Hart's campaign opted not to challenge the election results in Iowa court, but rather through a partisan House process with a Democratic advantage.

There are growing political tensions around this particular challenge in the House, where relationships between Democrats and Republicans have deteriorated since the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, the day of the certification of the Electoral College vote results. On that day, 139 House Republicans voted to object to state-certified results in Arizona and Pennsylvania after extremists ransacked the Capitol. Now, Democrats are in control of a process to decide whether to overturn a certified election result.

Democrats maintain that there is nothing unethical about reviewing an election with a historically close margin in an established legal process. "It should not be surprising that any candidate in these circumstances would choose to exercise their rights under the law to contest the results," said Peter Whippy, a Democratic spokesman for the House Administration Committee.

However, with a narrow 219-211 current majority, some Democrats are aware that the review could be cast as a power grab to pad their margin in the House. "Losing a House election by six votes is painful for Democrats. But overturning it in the House would be even more painful for America. Just because a majority can, does not mean a majority should," tweeted Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, a centrist Democrat.

There is no timeline for wrapping up the election review, although Lofgren has said she would like to resolve the matter this spring. The committee could vote to dismiss the case or make a recommendation to overturn the election result, which would require a majority vote of the full House to take effect.

Attorneys for the two sides have until March 29 to submit follow-up briefs.

Continue reading here:

Defeated Iowa Democrat Asking House To Overturn Election - NPR

Florida Republicans bested Democrats in the blocking and tackling of running campaigns last year, leading to victories up and down the ballot for the GOP. Now the states top Democrat is bringing in outside help to prevent a repeat in 2022.

Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and the National Democratic Training Committee are announcing a new initiative to train local county Democratic leaders in organization and strategizing. The goal is to strengthen the Democrats closest to the voters and activists on the ground.

Organizing has historically been the Democratic Partys strong suit and after Floridas 2020 election results, its clear that an initiative to strengthen party efforts from the ground up, prioritizing the local level, will be crucial for future success, Fried, the states only statewide Democrat, said in a statement.

The training will take place over four sessions that will begin in April.

This series is the latest effort by Fried to help the party rebuild from the ground up. Fried recently announced the hiring of Abigayil Yisrael as engagement and outreach director for her political committee. Yisrael is coming off the successful campaign of Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, in which Democrats flipped the southern state blue to take control of the Senate.

This refocus on the ground will be a familiar tune to local county parties, who for years have heard such promises from state Democratic Party leaders only to watch them abandon those efforts as elections approach.

After widespread losses in 2018, Florida Democrats spent months assessing what went wrong and concluded that they needed to give more resources to local Democratic parties and engage with their activists all year, not just election season.

By the time the 2020 election rolled around, there was a steady drumbeat of angst and frustration from local Democratic leaders, who said they were being stepped on by national Democrats. Many sounded the alarm that Joe Bidens campaign wasnt doing enough to engage with Black and Latino Floridians and that these outside strategists didnt understand the intricacies of operating in such a large, diverse state.

The National Democratic Training Committee partners with labor unions, trade groups, state parties and progressive organizations. Its Florida series will focus on training local precinct committee people, membership recruitment and building a successful organization.

When our local party infrastructure is organized, we get more people involved, recruit more candidates and ultimately win more races. We are thrilled to be teaming up with Commissioner Fried to train Democratic leaders across the state, said Kelly Dietrich, founder and CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee.

Originally posted here:

Florida Democrats lost the ground game in 2020. Training is on the way. - Tampa Bay Times

Democrats running to replace the late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, believe they can flip the seat in an unpredictable off-year special election. But Democrats at large are not as sure or willing to say it out loud.

That is becoming clear as campaigning ramps up for the May 1 contest, when 23 candidates including 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats will be on the ballot in Texas 6th Congressional District. With so many contenders, the race is likely to go to a mid-summer runoff, and Democrats involved hope they can secure a second-round spot on their way to turning the district blue.

While Democrats have cause for optimism the district has rapidly trended blue in recent presidential election results some are urging caution. They are mindful of a few factors, not the least of which is a 2020 election cycle in which high Democratic expectations culminated in deep disappointment throughout the ballot.

Were not counting our chickens before they hatch and were gonna work to earn every vote, said Abhi Rahman, a Texas Democratic strategist who previously worked for the state party. This is not a bellwether. This is the first of many battles that will eventually lead to Texas turning blue.

With just under a month until early voting begins, national Democrats are showing few outward signs that they are ready to engage in the race, even as candidates and their supporters press the case that the district is flippable. They point out that Trump carried the district by only 3 percentage points in November after winning it by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney carried the district by 17 points in 2012.

It absolutely is a competitive race, said Stephen Daniel, the 2020 Democratic nominee for the seat, who opted against running in the special election. He added he thinks that national Democrats need to get involved because I think the more resources you have to get out there and help you reach these voters can only help.

On the flip side, Wright, who died in February weeks after testing positive for the coronavirus, won the seat when it was open in 2018 by 8 points and by 9 points in 2020. Both times the seat was a target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, though the designation came late in the cycle and the group did not spend significant money in either election.

And while Trump carried the district by only 3 points in November, every other statewide Republican candidate, including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, won it by more comfortable margins ranging from 6 to 8 points.

Whether to engage could be an especially difficult decision for the DCCC, which made a show of going on offense in Texas last cycle, opening an office in Austin early on and building a target list that grew to include 10 Republican-held districts, including Wrights. They ended up flipping none of them.

Asked for comment for this story, a DCCC spokesperson pointed to comments that the committees chairman, Sean Patrick Maloney, made to The Washington Post in mid-February. Asked if the DCCC would compete in the special election, Maloney said the committee was looking at it but that Democratic members were currently focused on helping constituents recover from the deadly winter storm that had just battered the state at the time.

Democrats make up 10 candidates in the 23-way race. The more prominent Democratic candidates include Jana Lynne Sanchez, the partys 2018 nominee for the seat; Lydia Bean, the Democratic challenger last year to state Rep. Matt Krause, R-Fort Worth; and Shawn Lassiter, an education nonprofit leader from Fort Worth.

EMILYs List, the powerful national group that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, is in touch with the Democratic women running in the special election and watching the race closely but currently has no plans to endorse, spokesperson Kristen Hernandez said. The organization backed Sanchez when she was the nominee in 2018 but is often more cautious about taking sides when multiple Democratic women are running in a primary or special election.

It is still somewhat early relative to the special election timeline the filing deadline was March 3 but at least two Republican contenders are already running TV ads, and some Democrats worry they could get locked out of the runoff if the national party does not start paying closer attention.

Lassiter, in a statement for this story, said Democrats cannot sit on the sidelines and watch the failed leadership of the Republicans be a disservice to our communities.

Texas' 6th is eager to elect someone who represents our growing diversity and who has the political courage to serve the people, Lassiter said. With the right candidate and with Democratic investment, we can flip this district and win.

Lassiter is one of at least two Black Democrats running, one other being Mansfield pastor Patrick Moses. Twenty-seven percent of 2020 Democratic primary voters in the district were African American, according to the Lassiter campaign's analysis. Thirty-three percent were Black in the lower-turnout 2018 primary.

Lassiter is not the only candidate contemplating a potential all-GOP runoff. A recent polling memo provided to another Democratic campaign warned that a Democratic lockout is a real danger.

Kelly Blackburn, chairwoman of the Ellis County Democratic Party, said she thinks some people will start coalescing toward or one or two [Democratic candidates] by April, but well see. As for investment in the race by national Democrats, she said she would welcome it, and Im sure the candidates would as well.

If we really wanna fight for it, I think we need more money and big money, Blackburn said.

The Republican side is headlined by veteran GOP activist Susan Wright, Ron Wrights widow. Some of her most serious-looking GOP competitors include state Rep. Jake Ellzey of Waxahachie and Brian Harrison, the former chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under President Donald Trump; and Sery Kim, another former Trump administration official. One wild card is Dan Rodimer, the former professional wrestler who ran for Congress last year in Nevada and scrambled to file last-minute for the Texas special election.

Some of the Democrats are already finding convenient foils in the GOP field. Bean has repeatedly called out Rodimer on social media and sent fundraising emails targeting Harrison at length, deriding him as Bootlicker Brian. (He has taken encouragement from the attacks.)

For now, though, the Democrats may have to focus on differences among themselves if they want to advance to an anticipated runoff against a Republican.

During one of their first major forums last week, the Democratic field was largely harmonious. Sanchez and Bean leaned heavily on their previous campaign experience to argue they were best positioned to turn out Democrats for the special election. Sanchez also brought up a sore subject for Democrats last election cycle.

I think we saw from 2020, where down-ballot was extremely disappointing, despite all of our efforts, that what was missing was the door-knocking, and you cant substitute TV for door-knocking so its very important to me that we continue that, Sanchez said, adding that she had already hired two field staffers and her campaign is going to be door-knocking every day and I will be out there as well.

You may remember that just four months ago, I ran for the Texas House here in Tarrant County and we had one of the strongest field programs in the whole state of Texas, said Bean, who also touts that she raised over $1 million in her November challenge to Krause, who won by 9 points.

Bean got one of the first major endorsements among Democratic candidates last week, unveiling the support of the Tarrant County AFL-CIO. Sanchez, meanwhile, launched with $100,000 raised and a list of 10 endorsements from across the district, and she has led the Democratic field in the two private surveys of the race that have surfaced so far, though large shares of respondents were undecided in each.

National Republicans are dismissive of Democratic ambitions in the district. In a statement for this story, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Torunn Sinclair, said Democrats should be talking less about their laughable prospects in Texas 6th Congressional District and spending more time fixing the border crisis theyve created.

Still, some of the GOP candidates are not discounting how competitive it could be for Democrats, if only because it reinforces their campaign strategies. After Ellzey launched his campaign, he emailed supporters that he was running because he heard from people in the district that they dont want liberals taking away our voice in Congress.

I think the Democrats could flip this seat, Harrison said in an interview, putting an emphasis on could.

Theyre gonna throw everything at it, and thats why the Republicans absolutely have to rally for the strongest possible candidate in the field, Harrison added, pitching himself as the only contender with deep roots in the district, small-business experience here and a track record of going to Washington and making change.

Link:

Democrats have mixed outlooks for Texas Congressional District 6 election - The Texas Tribune

Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoMike PompeoWill diplomacy work with Iran? Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China will Biden back them up? Why is the Biden administration more interested in confrontation than cooperation? MORE blastedDemocrats over their efforts to pass an election reform bill during his visit to Iowa on Friday, which came amid speculation abouta possible presidential run in 2024.

Pompeo made his remarks at the Westside Conservative Club in Iowa, Fox News reported. Headdressed the criticism ofH.R.1, the election reform and campaign finance bill that the Democratic-led House passedearlier in March along party lines.

Watch what the Democrats are doing. This is a raw power grab," Pompeo said, according to Fox News.

Democrats have made election reform a priority amid GOP-controlled legislatures seeking to impose more restrictive voting rules. The Biden administration is also supported the measure.

But Republicans have railed against the bill, arguing that it allows for ballot harvesting.

The Democrats' efforts to enact the new voting legislation comes as Republicans across the country pass their own voting overhauls. Georgia Gov. Brian KempBrian KempThe Hill's Morning Report - Biden shifts on filibuster Liberals think Biden just made getting rid of the filibuster easier Warnock visits Georgia state Rep. Cannon at jail after arrest: 'She did not deserve this' MORE (R)signed a bill into lawon Thursday restricting the use of ballot drop boxes and requiring photo ID for absentee ballots. The law has already been met with a legal challenge.

Pompeo called that bill a good one," according to Fox News.

His visit also came as Democrat Rita Hart is challenging the results of her House race against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who won by an ultra-slim margin.

"You all are living the part where theyre going to try and steal the seat from an Iowa congresswoman," Pompeo told the crowd in reference to the election challenge, Fox News reported. "Dont let it happen. Dont let it happen. This is outrageous."

PompeosIowa visit hasfueled more speculation that he will seek the GOP nomination for president, given that the state holds the first caucus.

In addressing the speculation, Pompeo said he was going to Iowa to help Republicans prevail in the 2022 midterms, Fox News reported. He also jokingly said, Im headed down to Alabama, which I think will provide cover for coming to Iowa."

Pompeo didnt rule out a possible bid in an interview with Sean HannitySean Patrick HannityLara Trump 'absolutely' considering Senate run Biden sees himself as a two-term president Worst person in America contest? MOREearlier this month.

Im always up for a good fight, Pompeo told Hannity. I care deeply about America. You and I have been a part of the conservative movement for an awfully long time now. I aim to keep at it.

C-SPAN is expected to air Pompeos Iowa speechon Friday, in what Axios reported was the beginning of the networks 2024 coverage.

Here is the original post:

Pompeo in Iowa slams Democrats over 'raw power grab' | TheHill - The Hill

Congressional Democrats are introducing legislation to transfer $1bn in funding from a controversial new intercontinental ballistic missile to the development of a universal Covid vaccine.

The Investing in Cures Before Missiles (ICBM) Act, introduced in the House and Senate on Friday, would stop funding on the proposed new missile, known as the ground-based strategic deterrent (GBSD) which is projected to cost a total of $264bn over its projected lifespan, and discontinue spending on a linked warhead modification program.

Instead, the life of the existing US intercontinental ballistic missile, the Minuteman III, would be extended until 2050, and an independent study commissioned on how best to do that.

The United States should invest in a vaccine of mass prevention before another new land-based weapon of mass destruction, Senator Edward Markey of Massachusetts, co-author of the bill, said.

The ICBM Act makes clear that we can begin to phase out the cold-war nuclear posture that risks accidental nuclear war while still deterring adversaries and assuring allies, and redirect those savings to the clear and present dangers presented by coronaviruses and other emerging and infectious diseases.

Arms control experts say static intercontinental ballistic missiles, of which the US has 400 in silos across the northern midwest, are inherently destabilizing and dangerous, because a president would have just a few minutes to launch them on the basis of early warning signals of an impending enemy attack, or risk losing them to a pre-emptive strike. They point to a history of near-launches based on defective data, and the risk of cyber-attacks distorting early warning systems.

With all of the global challenges we face, the last thing we should be doing is giving billions to defense contractors to build missiles we dont need to keep as a strong nuclear deterrence, Ro Khanna, Democratic congressman from California and the bills co-author in the House, said.

In September 2020, Northrop Grumman was awarded an uncontested bid for the $13.3bn engineering, manufacturing and development phase of GBSD, after its only rival for the vast contract, Boeing, pulled out of the race complaining of a rigged competition.

The Biden administrations intentions on the GBSDs future are unclear, but an early signal may come in its first defence budget expected in the next few weeks.

The new ICBM bill would transfer of $1bn in funding for the GBSD to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Niaid) for development work on a universal coronavirus vaccine. It would also divert money from the program to modify the W87-1 nuclear warhead to fit the GBSD, and dedicate it to research and preparations to combat future bio-threats. And it would launch an independent study to explore viable technical solutions to extend the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to 2050.

When Khanna tried to introduce a similar bill last July it was killed in the House armed services committee by a decisive bipartisan vote of 44-12. A proposed Minuteman extension study was also voted down.

Rarely is a congressional study controversial. This just shows how afraid Northrop Grumman is about the results of the independent study, Khanna told the Guardian. They lobbied to kill a simple study, to see if the Minuteman III could be extended.

The congressman said he was optimistic the new administration would support the bill.

This will remain an uphill battle. Northrop Grumman is lobbying hard against this bill, Khanna said. Given we have Democratic majorities in both chambers and a Democrat in the White House, we think our chances are better, particularly by putting pressure on the administration to pause GBSD and consider extending Minuteman III.

Jessica Sleight, the program director at Global Zero, a disarmament advocacy group, said: The US nuclear arsenal far exceeds any plausible mission requirements put forth by the Pentagon. Even in the best of times, $264bn for new nuclear missiles is money we cant spare for weapons we dont need. In the middle of a devastating pandemic, its irresponsible.

Excerpt from:

Democrats call for $1bn shift from weapons of mass destruction to 'vaccine of mass prevention' - The Guardian

A majority of Americans, about 55 percent, approve of President Bidens job performance so far, whereas about 39 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good numbers for a president in this polarized era. And for Democrats to keep control of the U.S. House and Senate next November, Biden will probably need to keep his approval ratings in this vicinity. Thats unlikely, but possible, because of some broader shifts happening in American politics.

Why should we focus on presidential approval ratings when we are thinking about next years midterms? For two reasons. First of all, we dont yet have a lot of other data to rely on. In most House and Senate races, its not even clear who the (non-incumbent) candidates will be. Most pollsters arent yet asking respondents the so-called generic ballot question If the next election were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate? And while generic ballot polling has historically provided a reliably rough preview of eventual midterm results, rough is the key word here. FiveThirtyEights average of pre-2020 generic ballot polls suggested that Democrats would have a sizable advantage in last years House races (a popular vote margin of around +7 percentage points, about 50 to 43), but the final results were more narrow (about +3 points, 51 to 48).

Second and more importantly, presidential approval ratings in recent years have been a decent indicator of what will happen in the midterms. In the last four (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018), the incumbent presidents disapproval rating was higher than his approval, and in all four cases, the presidents party lost a sizable bloc of House seats. (The Senate results arent quite as tied to presidential approval.) The last time the presidents party gained House seats in a midterm election was in 2002, when George W. Bush had sky-high ratings in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. So, when we talk about the pattern that the presidents party nearly always loses congressional seats in the midterms, part of what seems to be happening is that the American electorate becomes somewhat disillusioned with a president after electing or reelecting him (or wants to check his power) and then backs the opposite partys congressional candidates.

Relationship between presidential approval ratings and results for the presidents party in House midterm elections

Presidential approval and disapproval ratings come from FiveThirtyEights approval ratings tracker for the day before the midterm election for each year cited.

Sources: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; The American Presidency Project

And presidential approval ratings are becoming even more predictive as American politics are increasingly partisan and president-centered. The Obama and Trump presidencies suggest that the overwhelming majority of voters lean toward either the Democrats or the Republicans and approve of presidents from their own party and disapprove of presidents from the opposite party.

And those mostly partisan approval numbers translate to mostly partisan voting: More and more, voters cast ballots for candidates from the same party in both presidential and congressional elections. So, in November 2018, then-President Trump had a 42 percent approval rating, compared with a 53 percent disapproval rating. Democrats won about 53 percent of the national U.S. House vote, overwhelmingly from people who disapproved of Trump. Republicans slightly outpaced Trumps approval and won 45 percent of the House vote, mostly from people who approved of the president.

On Election Day in 2020, 45 percent of Americans approved of Trump, compared with 53 percent who disapproved. Biden won about 51 percent of the popular vote, as did House Democrats (so just slightly below Trumps disapproval). Trump won nearly 47 percent, similar to House Republicans (48 percent) and again just slightly above his approval rating. So, in both 2018 and 2020, presidential approval/disapproval tracked closely with the House popular vote. And because congressional and presidential voting are now both so tied to partisanship, we have a record-low number of House districts 16 where the member isnt from the same party that the district backed for president.

Of course, theres no guarantee that the close link between presidential approval ratings and House results will continue. Perhaps Trump made American politics particularly centered around him, so some voters in next years elections will approve of Bidens job performance but still back GOP congressional candidates. One big danger for Democrats in the 2022 midterms is the potential of differential turnout Republicans voting at higher levels than Democrats, with conservative voters more motivated to vote against congressional Democrats aligned with Biden than liberals are to essentially maintain the status quo. This happened in 2018, when people who had voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted at slightly higher rates than those who had backed Trump in 2016. So its possible that Bidens approval rating is 55 percent among American adults on election day 2022 but is several percentage points lower among people who actually vote.

And even if presidential approval ratings remain closely linked to the overall House vote and Biden maintains a rating in the mid-50s, that doesnt guarantee Democrats will win the House. Weve had a few elections in a row now where polls, on balance, slightly overstated support for Democratic candidates and politicians and understated support for GOP ones. That doesnt mean the same thing will happen again in the midterms, but its easy to imagine the eventual electorate in 2022 will be a little more Republican-leaning than Bidens approval rating suggests. And Democrats have very little margin for error. Republicans have a built-in head start in House races right now not only because of GOP gerrymandering but because Democratic-leaning voters disproportionately live in urban areas while Republicans are more spread out into exurban, suburban and rural districts. So a 50-50 popular vote margin would almost certainly give the GOP control of the House.

Moreover, Republicans have much more control over the redistricting process than Democrats, so they could draw lines even more favorable to them before next years elections. Republicans in many states are also trying to limit the ability of liberal-leaning Americans to vote or have their votes counted. So its possible that even, say, a 52 percent to 47 percent Democratic advantage in the aggregate popular vote in House races would translate to a Republican-controlled House.

Put simply: If Biden could maintain an approval rating in the mid-50s, it would be a huge help to Democrats in particular, House candidates in swing districts and Democratic Senate candidates in competitive states such as Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And if Biden could push his approval rating into the high 50s, its hard to imagine Democrats losing the House or the Senate.

How likely is it for Biden to maintain or improve his current approval?

Its hard to say. History would suggest that Biden is likely to be less popular in November 2022 than he is today, but were not sure how much of that history applies.

The pre-Trump pattern in presidential approval had typically been that a new president entered office with relatively high ratings (at or above 55 percent) and then those numbers gradually declined during his first two years. But that pattern may be over. Trump never had much of a honeymoon: He began at around 46 percent approval, and his ratings remained fairly stable throughout his presidency. Biden started off at around 53 percent higher than his immediate predecessor but not as high as other recent presidents. (Another interesting point: Bidens approval rating is nearly the inverse of his predecessors: Trumps approval was mostly in the low 40s, and his disapproval was mostly in the mid-50s; Bidens approval is in the mid-50s, and his disapproval in the high 30s.)

Its plausible that no matter what Biden does, his approval ratings will dip in the run-up to the midterms, as pre-Trump presidents did, because voters tend to sour some on the incumbent. Alternatively, its plausible that we are in a new normal of American politics, with a large GOP bloc, a slightly larger Democratic bloc that includes the majority of Americans and voters who are really locked into their party, so nothing really shifts those fundamental dynamics. That would explain why Bidens approval rating is basically the same as Trumps disapproval rating was, and why Bidens disapproval is so close to Trumps approval.

And finally, its plausible that what actually happens in Bidens presidency day-to-day matters. The president and his team are trying to implement a strategy that they think will keep his popularity up: improve the economy and deal with COVID-19 effectively, sell those successes to American voters and tone down the partisan divide in Washington. Republicans have a strategy too: keep up partisan tensions in Washington; attack Biden on policy matters like immigration, where he is unlikely to have clear successes; and highlight issues that are likely to divide voters based on competing racial and cultural attitudes, such as the controversy over the discontinuation of some Dr. Seuss books because of racist imagery.

Of course real-life events will affect Bidens approval ratings, you might say. Sure, but thats been true only marginally of late. Economic conditions are less correlated to presidential approval than in the past. And, as I noted earlier, none of the incredible things that happened in Trumps presidency (the Mueller report, Trumps 2019 impeachment, the COVID-19 outbreak) shifted his approval ratings much until the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, which did cause a notable dip.

So watch Bidens approval rating closely. Its likely to be an indication of how well Democrats will do in next years elections. But its also likely to be an indication of how American politics today work more broadly. Is America locked in an intractable partisan uncivil war, where Team Blue represents a slight but clear majority and every election is super-close? Or maybe neither Team Blue nor Team Red has a majority and instead both are at about 45 percent, with a fairly large and meaningful bloc of people who either swing between the parties (often against the presidents party) or dont vote at all during midterm elections (mostly from the presidents party)? Or can the president and his actions meaningfully shift the political dynamics and create a 55-45 or 57-43 electorate if he is viewed as effective, or alternatively, a 43-57 electorate if he is viewed as particularly ineffective? We shall see over the next 19-plus months.

Originally posted here:

Why Democrats In Congress Need Bidens Approval Rating To Stay Where It Is - FiveThirtyEight