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Daily Archives: February 27, 2021
Food security, not eating meat, is the real problem in New York City – Duluth News Tribune
Posted: February 27, 2021 at 3:30 am
A news release arrived in my inbox capturing my attention with the subject line of New York City Mayor's Office of Animal Welfare promotes meat reduction. I wish I could show up at their office to investigate myself. Instead, I read the email, read more online and wrote this opinion column. The email and context of it reminded me of The Fleecing of America news segments from Tom Brokaw which captured my attention as a child and teen, examining wasteful government spending.
For me, wasteful spending is trying to "reduce" one sector of agriculture in the most food-rich country in the world rather than addressing true food issues, like feeding hungry people in our communities.
To read more of Katie Pinke's The Pinke Post, click here.
An animal protection group, that I leave unnamed to not give it any undeserved attention, went on in the email to say meat reduction should not just be for New Yorkers but for all Americans. And evidently for all Americans, that includes the publisher of an agriculture media brand, me, to receive the email.
By reducing demand for meat, dairy, and eggs, we can create a shift towards farming practices that are more sustainable and kinder to animals, said the email.
Agriculture cannot stop standing up for all types of food production, in all states and countries says Katie Pinke. (Erin Brown / Grand Vale Creative)
According to Food Bank of New York City research:
I am not a city dweller, but this isn't a city-only problem. If you do your own research, youll find food insecurity dwells in your own backyard, no matter how rural or urban your home is.
We have meal gaps in our rural counties, towns and cities. We have neighbors, unable to put on enough food on the table to feed themselves and their families.
Show empathy. We're proudly a bountiful agricultural nation, yet this email from a city with a "meat reduction" effort shows me our food system remains disconnected and in some areas, broken.
Our food-rich systems cannot be fixed without collaboration and change between the entire food system from the fields and pastures where food is grown and raised to distribution, including through government-funded food programs.
Where is the disconnect, some ask? Rather than attack a specific farming practice or sector of agriculture, why not put our time and resources, including government spending, toward addressing food insecurity, including all types of protein reaching all types of people?
No one in an animal activist or commonly labeled protection group trying to take down a sector of agriculture, this being animal ag, should be given a platform within city government when they have hungry people they aren't feeding. Before "reducing" any food choice, find methods to address food insecurity in your own backyards.
Is it too much to dream and then set out to achieve an agriculture diverse utopia? We need meat, dairy, eggs, fruits and vegetables to reach a variety of eaters and locations.
While my initial reaction to the New York City email was that I hope and pray I never have any reason to live in New York City, or any city for that matter, where a "meat reduction" crusade is funded, I realize I need to do better as an agriculturist. The email serves as a reminder.
Agriculture cannot stop standing up for all types of food production, in all states and countries.
Stand up for the fleecing of America against our farmers and food systems. Use your voice and ability to connect with lawmakers and policymakers and utilize Americas ability to bountifully grow a variety of food rather than stay silent against those trying to take out and remove sectors of agriculture.
Pinke is the publisher and general manager of Agweek. She can be reached at kpinke@agweek.com, or connect with her on Twitter @katpinke.
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Food security, not eating meat, is the real problem in New York City - Duluth News Tribune
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Travis Scott Reveals New Details About Utopia Album, Still Wants to Make Astroworld Festival Happen This Year – XXLMAG.COM
Posted: at 3:30 am
The rumblings and murmurs pertaining to Travis Scott'sUtopia album calmed a bit recently, but in a new interview, La Flame has revealed that he's currently working on the effort, which will have a sound unlike anything he's done before.
During a conversation with film director Robert Rodriguez for the Spring 2021 issue of i-Dmagazine, Travis explained, "I never tell people this, and Im probably going to keep it a secret still, but Im working with some new people and Im just trying to expand the sound. Ive been making beats again, rapping on my own beats, just putting everything together and trying to grow it really. Thats been one of the most fun things about working on this album. Im evolving, collaborating with new people, delivering a whole new sound, a whole new range."
When Rodriguez asked about Travis Scott's approach to following up the success of his 2018album,Astroworld, the "Sicko Mode" rapper remained confident. "Its never about repeating myself, Im just trying to make the next saga each album is like a saga. You know, youre one of my favorite directors. Everything you fucking do man," he said.
The acclaimof Astroworld goes without saying, but the former 2013XXL Freshman doesn't feel any pressure to deliver an album that will be just as good, if not better.
"I dont feel no pressure, except to keep the fans alive," he told the publication. "Theres so much more ground I can cover, and I want to cover it, and I love the challenge of it. I want to make a fucking new sound. I might spend days banging my head against a wall trying to figure it out, but once I do it, its like ultimate ecstasy."
Scott also revealed that he's still hoping to make his extravagant Houston-basedAstroworld Festival happen later this year. Despite the current state of the pandemic, he remained optimistic, saying, "Hopefully we can bring it back at the end of this year. Around November."
While a release date for the album hasn't been shared yet, it's good to know that more music from Travis is on the way.
See the Ways Not to Fumble the Bag According to Travis Scott
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Travis Scott reveals his next album will have a whole new sound – REVOLT TV
Posted: at 3:30 am
Travis Scott offered fans some details about his next album Utopia during a recent interview for i-D Magazine. Speaking with From Dusk Till Dawn and The Mandalorian director Robert Rodriguez, La Flame revealed hes experimenting with a whole new sound for his Astroworld follow-up.
I never tell people this and Im probably going to keep it a secret still, but Im working with some new people and Im just trying to expand the sound, Scott said in the interview. Ive been making beats again, rapping on my own beats [and] just putting everything together and trying to grow it really.
Thats been one of the most fun things about working on this album, he added. Im evolving, collaborating with new people [and] delivering a whole new sound [and] a whole new range.
In terms of the pressure for commercial success following Astroworlds massive 2018 takeover, Scott said he only feels pressured to deliver the very best quality music to his fans.
Theres so much more ground I can cover and I want to cover it, he said. ... I love the challenge of it. I want to make a fucking new sound. I might spend days banging my head against a wall trying to figure it out, but once I do it, its like ultimate ecstasy.
Scott also revealed how raising his 3-year-old-daughter Stormi has changed his process.
Fatherhood influences my job. It has a huge impact. Its a major inspiration, he told i-D. Especially Stormi. Shes always interested; she catches on and learns things so fast.
As far as when fans can expect Utopia, Scott promised the highly anticipated record is coming soon.
The Houston native also spoke to his recent lucrative partnerships and how they connect to his past.
... With Nike those are the shoes I wear; the shoes Ive been wearing since I was a kid, he said. Playstation when it was rough when I was a kid, gaming was an escape. When I was younger and in the studio, sometimes we couldnt really afford to eat, you know? So McDonalds held it down.
... But its about being able to create an experience, even if these are small things, he continued. These collaborations are tools in a way, pieces of everyday life; big brands that allowed us to generate ideas. In 2021 we want to keep evolving, keep generating.
Read his full interview here.
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Travis Scott reveals his next album will have a whole new sound - REVOLT TV
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Five Things We Learned from Travis Scott’s ‘i-D’ Interview – VICE UK
Posted: at 3:30 am
For their new Utopia in Dystopia issue, our friends over at i-D bagged two superstar cover stars, Travis Scott and Naomi Campbell.
You can order that issue right here and read the interviews with said cover stars here and here but to whet your whistle while you wait for your copy to arrive, weve compiled five of the key takeaways from director Robert Rodriguezs chat with Cactus Jack.
Travis has returned to rapping over his own beats, while collaborating with new artists on his upcoming album Utopia, and is determined to create a new sound
I am working with some new people and Im just trying to expand the sound. Ive been making beats again, rapping on my own beats again, just putting everything together.
I want to make a fucking new sound. I might spend days banging my head against a wall trying to figure it out, but once I do it, its like ultimate ecstasy.
Its never about repeating something, Im just trying to make the next saga, each album is like a saga.
And the pandemic hasnt slowed down the creation of the album.
It made me way more productive. You know, youre not doing any shows. You not really doing too much travelling. You in the crib, and I got the studio at home and I have the peace to record all day, you know?
Astroworld festival might be coming back in November for the post-pandemic world.
Hopefully we can bring it back at the end of this year. Around November.
Becoming a father changed his perspective on the importance of his role in society.
Its so crazy, Stormis generation is way different from mine, and shes way different from my younger brother and sister. Kids show you a different outlook on life, how they view things, the type of pressures they have and what makes them happy, what makes them move.
Like, when she watches certain movies or listens to certain songs. Or she watches my concerts on YouTube and she realises shes there, shes ready to see now. I realised my job is way more important than what I thought because of her. More responsibility, you know? Youve got to use that properly.
He wants to evolve as a collaborator in 2021.
You know, its like with Nike those are the shoes I wear, the shoes Ive been wearing since I was a kid. Playstation when it was rough, when I was a kid, gaming was an escape. When I was younger and in the studio, sometimes we couldnt really afford to eat, you know? So McDonalds held it down. That double cheeseburger got us through those moments.
But its about being able to create an experience, even if these are small things. These collaborations are tools in a way, pieces of everyday life, big brands that allowed us to generate ideas. In 2021, we want to keep evolving, keep generating.
Read i-Ds full Travis Scott interview here.
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Yale College honors recipients of Poorvu award for excellence in teaching – Yale News
Posted: at 3:30 am
Yale College Dean Marvin Chun will host a virtual reception on March 2 to honor the recipients of the annual Poorvu Family Fund for Academic Innovation award, created to recognize excellence in teaching. This years recipients are Yale faculty members Jennifer Allen, Aimee Cox, Wendy Gilbert, and Jonas Elbousty.
The award, given to outstanding junior faculty members at Yale who have demonstrated excellence in teaching in undergraduate programs, enables them to dedicate the summer to research essential to their development as scholars and teachers.
Allen is an assistant professor of history who studies late-20th-century European cultural practices. She is currently working on a book manuscript titled Sustainable Utopias: Art, Political Culture, and Historical Practice in Late Twentieth-Century Germany. In it, she charts the history of Germanys relatively recent efforts to revitalize the concept of utopia after the wholesale collapse of Europes violent social engineering projects. In a related research project, Allen traces how Germanys grassroots commemorative practices became a model for international communities as diverse as Moscow and Buenos Aires over the past 30 years. In Yale College, she teaches courses on modern German history, modern European history, the theories and practices of memory, and the history of the Holocaust.
Cox is an associate professor in African American studies and anthropology. Her research and teaching interests lie at the intersection of anthropology, Black studies, and performance studies. Her first monograph, Shapeshifters: Black Girls and the Choreography of Citizenship (Duke 2015), won a 2016 Victor Turner Book Prize in Ethnographic Writing, and honorable mention from the 2016 Gloria E. Anzalda Book Prize, given by the National Womens Studies Association. Her next ethnographic project, Living Past Slow Death, explores the creative protest strategies individuals and communities enact to reclaim Black life in the urban United States specifically in Cincinnati, Ohio; Jackson, Mississippi; and Clarksburg, West Virginia. In Yale College, she has developed and taught new courses including: The Theory and Methods of Performance Ethnography, The Roots and Routes of Black Feminist Theory, and Anthropology of the Young and the Dispossessed.
Elbousty is director of undergraduate studies in the Department of Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations. He previously taught at Al Akhawyeen University, Emory University, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Columbia University. He has taught widely in the areas of North African and Middle Eastern studies, with a special focus on literary narratives. His research interests focus on the theories of world literature and its tie to Eurocentrism, problematics of literary translation, cultural history, the image of the Arab in U.S literary narratives, postcolonial literature, modern Arabic fiction, Maghrebi studies, and the life and works of Mohamed Choukri. Besides his academic responsibilities, he is a literary translator and a short story writer. In Yale College, he teaches courses in elementary to advanced Modern Standard Arabic, The Trilogy of Mosteghanemi, and Mohamed Choukri's Narratives.
Gilbert is an associate professor of molecular biophysics and biochemistry. Her work focuses on regulatory elements in messenger RNA that control the cellular expression of the information stored in the genetic code. In recent years, her work has expanded to include studying the biological functions of chemical RNA modifications. She was recognized with the RNA Societys Early Career Award in 2017 for her paradigm-altering contributions to the field of post-transcriptional gene regulation. She teaches Methods and Logic in Molecular Biology and Advanced Eukaryotic Molecular Biology. Her teaching engages students to evaluate the experimental evidence that forms the basis for understanding biological processes.
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Travis Scott teases that new album has a ‘whole new sound’ – Music News
Posted: at 3:30 am
The hip-hop superstar is set to release his hotly-awaited fourth studio album, which he previously hinted is called 'Utopia', later this year, and he's revealed he's been working with new collaborators on the follow-up to 2018's 'Astroworld' in a bid to evolve his music.
Travis told i-D magazine: I never tell people this, and Im probably going to keep it a secret still, but Im working with some new people and Im just trying to expand the sound.
Ive been making beats again, rapping on my own beats, just putting everything together and trying to grow it really. Thats been one of the most fun things about working on this album. Im evolving, collaborating with new people, delivering a whole new sound, a whole new range.
The 'Highest In The Room' hitmaker relishes the challenge of cultivating a new sound and insists all the "banging my head against a wall" is worth it for the "ultimate ecstasy" he feels in the end.
He continued: Its never about repeating myself, Im just trying to make the next saga each album is like a saga.I dont feel no pressure, except to keep the fans alive. Theres so much more ground I can cover, and I want to cover it, and I love the challenge of it. I want to make a f****** new sound. I might spend days banging my head against a wall trying to figure it out, but once I do it, its like ultimate ecstasy.
The 'SICKO MODE' rapper - who has three-year-old daughter Stormi Webster with Kylie Jenner - also admitted he has never been more productive than amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
He explained: You know, youre not doing any shows. You [are] not really doing too much travelling. You in the crib, and I got the studio at home and I have the peace to record all day, you know? Obviously like, you lose a little bit by not being able to travel and, you know, just see the earth.
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Travis Scott teases that new album has a 'whole new sound' - Music News
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Frieze Has Awarded Artist, Poet, and Chef Precious Okoyomon With Its Closely Watched $30,000 Commission in New York – artnet News
Posted: at 3:30 am
Frieze is giving its annual Artist Award to Precious Okoyomon, a New York-based artist, poet, and chef, who will use the $30,000 budget for anew commission at this years fair in New York, which is being held inscaled-back fashion at the Shed.
Simultaneously playful and critically inquisitive, this singular artist-poets work highlights the inevitability of change, decay, death, and rebirth, said jury chair Jenny Schlenzka, executive artistic director at Performance Space New York, in a statement. By extending poetry into the organic world, Okoyomon reminds us that apocalypse and utopia coexist and always have.
The prize for emerging artists, supported by the Luma Foundation and launched in New York in 2018, has previously recognized rising starsLauren HalseyandKapwani Kiwanga.
Kapwani Kiwanga, Shady installation view at Frieze New York (2018). Photo by Mark Blower courtesy of Frieze New York.
Okoyomon is planning a site-specific performance-activated installation that ties together poetry, sculpture, light, and sound. This piece takes its structure from the story of the tower of Babel, the mythological birthplace of difference, and differentiation, the artist told Artnet News in an email. Footage of the performance will be available online as well.
Okoyomon wrote the proposal for the award in the spring of 2020, just before the onset of the pandemic. The piece, which centered around the collective cooking and eating of a day long meal, was mostly concerned with togetherness, Okoyomon said.After returning to that project this year at a time when, for obvious reasons, realizing it has become impossible, I shifted focus to looking at failures of communication, places where language collapses, breaks down, arrives at impasse, etc.
Precious Okoyomon, installation view of Earthseed at the Museum Fr Moderne Kunst, Frankfurt (2020). Photo by Axel Schneider, courtesy of the artist and Museum Fr Moderne Kunst, Frankfurt; and Quinn Harrelson/Current Projects.
This years award jury members were Ralph Lemon (artistic director of Cross Performance, New York), Vassilis Oikonomopoulos (senior curator at Luma Arles), and Stuart Comer (chief curator of media and performance art at the Museum of Modern Art, New York).
During the run of the fair, Okoyomon will also present a solo show, titled FRAGMENTED BODY PERCEPTIONS AS HIGHER VIBRATION FREQUENCIES TO GOD, at Performance Space New York (March 20May 9, 2021). They will transform the space into a site for grief and mourning, with an installation featuring Kudzu ash, water, algae, moss, and stone.
Precious Okoyomon and Hannah Black, installation view of I NEED HELP at Real Fine Arts, New York (2018). Photo courtesy of the artist.
The artist has previously had exhibitions at the Luma Westbau in Zurich (2018) and the MMK in Frankfurt (2020), and performances at the Serpentine Galleries, London, and the Institute of Contemporary Art, London (both 2019). Their first show, I NEED HELP (2018), was a two-person presentation with Hannah Black at Real Fine Arts, New York.
Okoyomon will present a new commission at the Aspen Art Museum in June, and will release a book, But Did U Die?, with the Serpentine Galleries/Wonder Press later this year.
Frieze New York will be on view at the Shed in Manhattan, 545 West 30th Street, New York, May 59.
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Making little things grow: ‘POSE’ is challenging heteronormative culture, status quo – RU Daily Targum
Posted: at 3:30 am
The legendary Elektra Abundance. Looking like a tall glass of lemonade. Giving us daffodil realness. Giving us sunflower. Sun power! Making the little things grow!
Making the little things grow.
That is exactly what Ryan Murphys new show, POSE," aims to do. The show's cast consists of five transgender women of color (the most of any mainstream television series), and American Horror Story fan-favorites Billy Porter and Evan Peters.
For a majority of people, we've grown up in a Eurocentric world with the support, education and betterment of the white man in mind. Our white teachers teach lessons of white-saviorism, and our curriculum treats Black history as an impediment upon our otherwise spotless antiquity.
The TV programs we watch star white, cisgender people. The God we have come to know in the Christian faith is white and declares that being gay is a sin. These are the truths of our world for a lot of people. But for the Black child, they are living in a world that feels like it doesnt belong to them.
The LGBTQ+ child is made out to be an outsider, and thousands of children grow up with a distorted picture of what being Black or a member of the LGBTQ+ community looks like.
But Murphy dares to challenge these ideas and creates a different world. A realm where people are accepted and celebrated for who they are. A utopia, where age doesnt matter, Black is beautiful and queer culture is created and defined. More importantly, beyond all the glitz, glam, fur and stilettos, it's a safe haven for those who couldn't make themselves smaller to fit in to their predetermined place in society.
Making the little things grow, as they say.
This utopia I speak of is the ballroom culture of the '80s in New York City. The show focuses in on the culture, language, fashion and dance stylings of an underground Black and Latinx subculture that emerged during the time and is rooted in challenging ideas of gender identity.
At the balls, different houses compete for trophies in various competition categories. Historically, houses consisted of mothers," who were members of this inclusive and eccentric community themselves, and children," who were predominantly LGBTQ+ youth that were abandoned by their parents and left to live on the streets of New York City.
The show sheds light on what is otherwise a community that existed in the shadows of the mainstream.
There's Damon (Ryan Jamaal Swain), a shy yet ambitious dancer who winds up on the street after being disowned by his family, Lil Papi (Angel Bismark Curiel), a sketchy drug dealer with a heart of gold who is trying to change his life around despite his living in poverty, Angel (Indya Moore), an aspiring model who faces adversity in a business that refuses her femininity at every step of the way and Ricky (Dylln Burnside), a smooth talker who silently struggles with his health in the face of the AIDS epidemic.
Under the guidance of matron goddess of the balls, Blanca (Mj Rodriguez), and elder queen Pray Tell (Billy Porter), the kids learn the basic rules for survival in their counterculture, how to advocate for their community and how to fight for themselves and their independence in a world that wants to see them dead.
The '80s was a time of cocaine, big hair, loud music and hungry New York City yuppies eager to climb the ranks and stomp necks on Wall Street. But while the rest of the city was becoming young executives, driving around luxurious SUVs and talking about their stock portfolios, in the umbra of gloomy, run-down hospital rooms in the darkest corners of the city under that horrible fluorescent lighting, thousands of people were slowly dying.
Much misinformation about the spread of the virus contributed to the lack of care and resources available. The general publics silence and complacency coupled with former President Ronald Reagans refusal to recognize the epidemic rendered the LGBTQ+ completely powerless.
It was the epidemic no one wanted to cure. It was seen as some twisted version of divine intervention, as if AIDS was heaven-sent to save us from the plague of homosexuality that had befallen our beloved country.
Throughout the show, the characters seem to be constantly running from an inescapable virus that is out to kill them. Pray Tell verbalizes this feeling of loneliness to Blanca: They'll never know that feeling what it's like to love without worrying that you're gonna die, or worse yet, that you're gonna kill somebody. I don't know what's shittier: having that freedom taken away or never having had it to begin with.
One of the most important conversations of the show isn't a conversation at all, making this show all the more unique and culturally significant. Without words, POSE has normalized the relationship between Lil Papi, a cisgender, heterosexual male and Angel, a transgender sex-worker who has suffered a long line of abuse from the men in her life.
At no point does Angel question Papis sexuality, nor does he question Angels womanhood, pressure her to change her body or fetishize her. Their love is unmixed, unalloyed and untouched by the outside world.
What they have is nothing more than a relationship between a man and a woman, and the unquestioning faith and realness in that determination sends a powerful message to heterosexual couples everywhere that transgender women are real women, capable of relationships the same way cisgender couples are.
Aside from having bomb-ass characters, larger-than-life costumes and an engaging storyline, the show exposes the viewer to a lot of drag culture and encourages us to expand or question ideas about gender and sex, how they relate and how they are different.
The show also discusses divisive ideas and trends in the transgender community, like being a passing" transgender woman, which is when a transgender woman can go out into public and be perceived as a cisgender woman because she looks more "traditionally" feminine.
Throughout the show, we watch Angel struggle with her modeling career as people refuse to work with her after finding out she is transgender. We also see characters face discrimination within the LGBTQ+ community itself, which raises intriguing questions about intersections between minorities.
"POSE" recognizes the delicate balance between femininity and masculinity, and how sexuality is a spectrum. It challenges you to engage in conversations about gender and gender roles, and might even inspire you to challenge gender norms yourself.
While it's all of these beautiful, wonderful, prideful things, it has also made me cry more times than I can count.
Making the little things grow.
That's what this show is all about. From where I'm sitting, this show is giant leap forward in the fight towards equality. To see Black culture represented in the mainstream is atypical. But, seeing Black, queer women being acknowledged in popular culture is something else entirely.
For the first time, a show stars an all-Black cast, with the supporting characters being white and straight. Although some may have their critiques, to recognize a culture that's considered so taboo is a daring and remarkable decision on Murphy's part, and I love him even more for it.
Representation in the media is everything, and to be a transgender child growing up, watching this show and for the first time seeing someone who was like them represented in media sends a huge message.
Perhaps it's not Elektra that's making the little things grow. Perhaps its the voices of thousands of people just like the characters of this show who demand to be heard, whose pain demands to be felt, whose stories need to be told.
People like Alexus Braxton, Dustin Parker, Monika Diamond, Nina Pop, Tony McDade and thousands of others whose only crime was loving themselves enough to live freely. People who were punished for liberating themselves from their sexuality. Or perhaps, its the people who move mountains who advocate, who donate, who protect, who create.
We must remember that healing isn't linear, and although we may not be able to change popular culture today or tomorrow, we must continue to make strides towards ending oppression, regardless of small those strides may be.
And the little things will grow: strides will become steps, steps will become leaps. As the LGBTQ+ icon Andy Warhol once said, They say time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.
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The Coronavirus Is Threatening a Comeback. Heres How to Stop It. – The New York Times
Posted: at 3:29 am
Across the United States, and the world, the coronavirus seems to be loosening its stranglehold. The deadly curve of cases, hospitalizations and deaths has yo-yoed before, but never has it plunged so steeply and so fast.
Is this it, then? Is this the beginning of the end? After a year of being pummeled by grim statistics and scolded for wanting human contact, many Americans feel a long-promised deliverance is at hand.
Americans will win against the virus and regain many aspects of their pre-pandemic lives, most scientists now believe. Of the 21 interviewed for this article, all were optimistic that the worst of the pandemic is past. This summer, they said, life may begin to seem normal again.
But of course, theres always a but researchers are also worried that Americans, so close to the finish line, may once again underestimate the virus.
So far, the two vaccines authorized in the United States are spectacularly effective, and after a slow start, the vaccination rollout is picking up momentum. A third vaccine is likely to be authorized shortly, adding to the nations supply.
But it will be many weeks before vaccinations make a dent in the pandemic. And now the virus is shape-shifting faster than expected, evolving into variants that may partly sidestep the immune system.
The latest variant was discovered in New York City only this week, and another worrisome version is spreading at a rapid pace through California. Scientists say a contagious variant first discovered in Britain will become the dominant form of the virus in the United States by the end of March.
The road back to normalcy is potholed with unknowns: how well vaccines prevent further spread of the virus; whether emerging variants remain susceptible enough to the vaccines; and how quickly the world is immunized, so as to halt further evolution of the virus.
But the greatest ambiguity is human behavior. Can Americans desperate for normalcy keep wearing masks and distancing themselves from family and friends? How much longer can communities keep businesses, offices and schools closed?
Covid-19 deaths will most likely never rise quite as precipitously as in the past, and the worst may be behind us. But if Americans let down their guard too soon many states are already lifting restrictions and if the variants spread in the United States as they have elsewhere, another spike in cases may well arrive in the coming weeks.
Scientists call it the fourth wave. The new variants mean were essentially facing a pandemic within a pandemic, said Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
The United States has now recorded 500,000 deaths amid the pandemic, a terrible milestone. As of Wednesday morning, at least 28.3 million people have been infected.
But the rate of new infections has tumbled by 35 percent over the past two weeks, according to a database maintained by The New York Times. Hospitalizations are down 31 percent, and deaths have fallen by 16 percent.
Yet the numbers are still at the horrific highs of November, scientists noted. At least 3,210 people died of Covid-19 on Wednesday alone. And there is no guarantee that these rates will continue to decrease.
Very, very high case numbers are not a good thing, even if the trend is downward, said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston. Taking the first hint of a downward trend as a reason to reopen is how you get to even higher numbers.
In late November, for example, Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island limited social gatherings and some commercial activities in the state. Eight days later, cases began to decline. The trend reversed eight days after the states pause lifted on Dec. 20.
The viruss latest retreat in Rhode Island and most other states, experts said, results from a combination of factors: growing numbers of people with immunity to the virus, either from having been infected or from vaccination; changes in behavior in response to the surges of a few weeks ago; and a dash of seasonality the effect of temperature and humidity on the survival of the virus.
Parts of the country that experienced huge surges in infection, like Montana and Iowa, may be closer to herd immunity than other regions. But patchwork immunity alone cannot explain the declines throughout much of the world.
The vaccines were first rolled out to residents of nursing homes and to the elderly, who are at highest risk of severe illness and death. That may explain some of the current decline in hospitalizations and deaths.
But young people drive the spread of the virus, and most of them have not yet been inoculated. And the bulk of the worlds vaccine supply has been bought up by wealthy nations, which have amassed one billion more doses than needed to immunize their populations.
Vaccination cannot explain why cases are dropping even in countries where few have been immunized. The biggest contributor to the sharp decline in infections is something more mundane, scientists say: behavioral change.
Leaders in the United States and elsewhere stepped up community restrictions after the holiday peaks. But individual choices have also been important, said Lindsay Wiley, an expert in public health law and ethics at American University in Washington.
People voluntarily change their behavior as they see their local hospital get hit hard, as they hear about outbreaks in their area, she said. If thats the reason that things are improving, then thats something that can reverse pretty quickly, too.
The downward curve of infections with the original coronavirus disguises an exponential rise in infections with B.1.1.7, the variant first identified in Britain, according to many researchers.
We really are seeing two epidemic curves, said Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease modeler at the University of Toronto.
The B.1.1.7 variant is thought to be more contagious and more deadly, and it is expected to become the predominant form of the virus in the United States by late March. The number of cases with the variant in the United States has risen from 76 in 12 states as of Jan. 13 to more than 1,800 in 45 states now. Actual infections may be much higher because of inadequate surveillance efforts in the United States.
Buoyed by the shrinking rates over all, however, governors are lifting restrictions across the United States and are under enormous pressure to reopen completely. Should that occur, B.1.1.7 and the other variants are likely to explode.
Feb. 26, 2021, 11:02 p.m. ET
Everybody is tired, and everybody wants things to open up again, Dr. Tuite said. Bending to political pressure right now, when things are really headed in the right direction, is going to end up costing us in the long term.
Another wave may be coming, but it can be minimized.
Looking ahead to late March or April, the majority of scientists interviewed by The Times predicted a fourth wave of infections. But they stressed that it is not an inevitable surge, if government officials and individuals maintain precautions for a few more weeks.
A minority of experts were more sanguine, saying they expected powerful vaccines and an expanding rollout to stop the virus. And a few took the middle road.
Were at that crossroads, where it could go well or it could go badly, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The vaccines have proved to be more effective than anyone could have hoped, so far preventing serious illness and death in nearly all recipients. At present, about 1.4 million Americans are vaccinated each day. More than 45 million Americans have received at least one dose.
A team of researchers at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle tried to calculate the number of vaccinations required per day to avoid a fourth wave. In a model completed before the variants surfaced, the scientists estimated that vaccinating just one million Americans a day would limit the magnitude of the fourth wave.
But the new variants completely changed that, said Dr. Joshua T. Schiffer, an infectious disease specialist who led the study. Its just very challenging scientifically the ground is shifting very, very quickly.
Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, described herself as a little more optimistic than many other researchers. We would be silly to undersell the vaccines, she said, noting that they are effective against the fast-spreading B.1.1.7 variant.
But Dr. Dean worried about the forms of the virus detected in South Africa and Brazil that seem less vulnerable to the vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna. (On Wednesday, Johnson & Johnson reported that its vaccine was relatively effective against the variant found in South Africa.)
About 50 infections with those two variants have been identified in the United States, but that could change. Because of the variants, scientists do not know how many people who were infected and had recovered are now vulnerable to reinfection.
South Africa and Brazil have reported reinfections with the new variants among people who had recovered from infections with the original version of the virus.
That makes it a lot harder to say, If we were to get to this level of vaccinations, wed probably be OK, said Sarah Cobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago.
Yet the biggest unknown is human behavior, experts said. The sharp drop in cases now may lead to complacency about masks and distancing, and to a wholesale lifting of restrictions on indoor dining, sporting events and more. Or not.
The single biggest lesson Ive learned during the pandemic is that epidemiological modeling struggles with prediction, because so much of it depends on human behavioral factors, said Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Taking into account the counterbalancing rises in both vaccinations and variants, along with the high likelihood that people will stop taking precautions, a fourth wave is highly likely this spring, the majority of experts told The Times.
Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, said he was confident that the number of cases will continue to decline, then plateau in about a month. After mid-March, the curve in new cases will swing upward again.
In early to mid-April, were going to start seeing hospitalizations go up, he said. Its just a question of how much.
Now the good news.
Despite the uncertainties, the experts predict that the last surge will subside in the United States sometime in the early summer. If the Biden administration can keep its promise to immunize every American adult by the end of the summer, the variants should be no match for the vaccines.
Combine vaccination with natural immunity and the human tendency to head outdoors as weather warms, and it may not be exactly herd immunity, but maybe its sufficient to prevent any large outbreaks, said Youyang Gu, an independent data scientist, who created some of the most prescient models of the pandemic.
Infections will continue to drop. More important, hospitalizations and deaths will fall to negligible levels enough, hopefully, to reopen the country.
Sometimes people lose vision of the fact that vaccines prevent hospitalization and death, which is really actually what most people care about, said Stefan Baral, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Even as the virus begins its swoon, people may still need to wear masks in public places and maintain social distance, because a significant percent of the population including children will not be immunized.
Assuming that we keep a close eye on things in the summer and dont go crazy, I think that we could look forward to a summer that is looking more normal, but hopefully in a way that is more carefully monitored than last summer, said Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
Imagine: Groups of vaccinated people will be able to get together for barbecues and play dates, without fear of infecting one another. Beaches, parks and playgrounds will be full of mask-free people. Indoor dining will return, along with movie theaters, bowling alleys and shopping malls although they may still require masks.
The virus will still be circulating, but the extent will depend in part on how well vaccines prevent not just illness and death, but also transmission. The data on whether vaccines stop the spread of the disease are encouraging, but immunization is unlikely to block transmission entirely.
Its not zero and its not 100 exactly where that number is will be important, said Shweta Bansal, an infectious disease modeler at Georgetown University. It needs to be pretty darn high for us to be able to get away with vaccinating anything below 100 percent of the population, so thats definitely something were watching.
Over the long term say, a year from now, when all the adults and children in the United States who want a vaccine have received them will this virus finally be behind us?
Every expert interviewed by The Times said no. Even after the vast majority of the American population has been immunized, the virus will continue to pop up in clusters, taking advantage of pockets of vulnerability. Years from now, the coronavirus may be an annoyance, circulating at low levels, causing modest colds.
Many scientists said their greatest worry post-pandemic was that new variants may turn out to be significantly less susceptible to the vaccines. Billions of people worldwide will remain unprotected, and each infection gives the virus new opportunities to mutate.
We wont have useless vaccines. We might have slightly less good vaccines than we have at the moment, said Andrew Read, an evolutionary microbiologist at Penn State University. Thats not the end of the world, because we have really good vaccines right now.
For now, every one of us can help by continuing to be careful for just a few more months, until the curve permanently flattens.
Just hang in there a little bit longer, Dr. Tuite said. Theres a lot of optimism and hope, but I think we need to be prepared for the fact that the next several months are likely to continue to be difficult.
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The Coronavirus Is Threatening a Comeback. Heres How to Stop It. - The New York Times
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Opinion | The Final Push to End the Coronavirus Pandemic in the U.S. – The New York Times
Posted: at 3:29 am
Vaccines have brought the United States tantalizingly close to crushing the coronavirus within its borders. After months of hiccups, some 1.4 million people are now being vaccinated every day, and many more shots are coming through the pipeline. The Food and Drug Administration is soon expected to authorize a third vaccine a single-dose shot made by Johnson & Johnson while Pfizer and Moderna are promising to greatly expand the supply of their shots, to roughly 100 million total doses per month, by early spring.
If those vaccines make their way into arms quickly, the nation could be on its way to a relatively pleasant summer and something approaching normal by autumn. Imagine schools running at full capacity in September and families gathering for Thanksgiving.
But turning that if into a when will require clearing additional hurdles so that everyone who needs to be vaccinated gets vaccinated. This is especially true for racial minorities, who are being disproportionately missed by the vaccination effort.
Theres plenty of disagreement among experts as to why America is still having problems with vaccine uptake. Some officials have suggested that the main cause is that too many people are hesitant to get the vaccine. Others point the finger at overcautious public health officials who they say have undersold the promise of the vaccines. Still others point to long lines at clinics as proof that far more people want the vaccine than can actually get it.
There is probably some truth to all of these hypotheses, and the underlying problems are not new. Vaccine hesitancy had been growing steadily in America long before the current pandemic, so much so that in 2019 the World Health Organization ranked it as one of the leading global health threats. At the same time, poor health care access and other logistical constraints, such as a lack of public transportation and limited internet access, have long impeded public health efforts in low-income communities.
To maximize the number of Americans getting vaccinations, policymakers need to tackle each of these crises with greater urgency than they have so far.
As supply increases, health officials should mount ambitious vaccination campaigns modeled on ones that have worked to curb diseases in other countries. That will mean not relying solely on web portals for scheduling vaccine appointments. It will mean going block by block and door to door, through high-risk communities especially. It will mean setting up employee vaccination sites at schools, grocery stores, transit hubs and meatpacking plants, and community clinics at houses of worship, with local leaders promoting and running them.
The easier you can make it for people to get vaccinated, the more likely your program will be to succeed, said Dr. Walter Orenstein, a former director of the national immunization program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its really that simple.
Outreach efforts cost money. But theyre far less expensive than allowing the pandemic to fester. Congress has appropriated some money to help states with vaccine rollout. It should offer more, and states should put as much of those resources as possible toward vaccination efforts that meet people where they are.
Health officials should also recognize that vaccine hesitancy has many root causes deliberate disinformation campaigns, mistrust of medical authorities in marginalized communities, ill-considered messaging by health officials. The best way to counter that is with campaigns that are locally led, that clearly outline the benefits of vaccination and that frame getting the shot as not just a personal choice but a collective responsibility.
Doctors and scientists can help those pro-vaccine messages stick by minding their own public communications. Its crucial to be transparent about what vaccines will and wont do for society overselling now will only sow more mistrust later.
That said, underselling is its own problem. Its true that these vaccines will not immediately restore the world to total normalcy. But they will eventually allow people to hug their loved ones, to return to their offices and to be protected from dying from or becoming seriously ill with Covid-19. Health officials should be clear about that.
Policymakers at the highest levels of government should press social media companies and e-commerce sites to curb the most aggressive purveyors of vaccine disinformation.
To not only quell this pandemic but to try to prevent the next one, America will need to improve its health system and its public health apparatus, both of which have significant holes. The problem with a lot of the response is that it was predicated on the idea that we have a good system in place for doing adult immunizations across the country, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine. The fact is, we really dont.
In the end, lawmakers and the people who vote them into office will have to address the much broader problems that this pandemic has exposed.
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Opinion | The Final Push to End the Coronavirus Pandemic in the U.S. - The New York Times
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