Daily Archives: January 5, 2021

Dr. Ashish Jha started 2020 thousands of miles from home, taking a sabbatical in Europe from his academic post at Harvard. Then the coronavirus pandemic arrived in the U.S.

Jha, an expert on pandemic preparedness, returned to Massachusetts, and his blunt talk on the unfolding disaster was soon hard to miss on national news and social media.

Jha estimates his office fielded more than 100 media requests a day at its peak. He went from a few hundred Twitter followers pre-pandemic to more than 130,000 by December.

For me, the purpose of doing this was to fill a void and make sure people received credible scientific information, said Jha, who recently became dean of Brown Universitys School of Public Health in Providence, Rhode Island. I thought it would go for a week or two, but the demand never really let up.

In another time, experts like Jha would have enjoyed the quiet esteem, respect and relative obscurity afforded by academia. But for better or worse, the coronavirus pandemic thrust virologists, epidemiologists and other normally low-profile scientists into the pop culture crucible.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a leading member of President Donald Trumps coronavirus task force, has been the unquestionable rock star among them. But a cadre of other scientists also rose to prominence this year. Many developed loyal social media followings and became regulars on the cable news circuit.

For Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a Seattle-based virologist affiliated with Georgetown University in Washington, her newfound notoriety hit home in July when she got into a Twitter debate with billionaire Elon Musk.

Rasmussen, who was then at Columbia University, criticized the Tesla CEOs tweets questioning data on the spread of the virus. Musk, to her surprise, chimed in, challenging her to produce evidence supporting her arguments.

Rasmussen tweeted back a series of graphs and other scientific data, which Musk dismissed as cherry-picked. Twitter users following along slammed Musk for attempting to mansplain the pandemic to a virologist.

Rasmussen, who has seen her Twitter followers explode from around 300 pre-pandemic to more than 180,000, said shed like to avoid unnecessary Twitter beefs, which also included testy exchanges with Dilbert comic strip creator Scott Adams and his fans over the pandemic in recent months.

But as the pandemic has worn on, she has become frustrated with the persistent misinformation from influential leaders and celebrities like Musk and Adams, and her strongly worded tweets show it.

Its exhausting, Rasmussen said. The same arguments keep coming back. Its like battling a hydra. Every time you cut one head off, another one grows back in place.

Laurel Bristow, an infectious disease researcher at Emory University in Atlanta, suggests its an indictment of academia that misinformation and conspiracy theories thrive and that parts of American society remain deeply skeptical of true scientific work.

Experts in these fields have ignored the importance of communication and bringing information to people in a way that is understandable and relatable for so long, Bristow said. You have to put a face to something for people to be able to trust it.

Bristow, 32, whose Instagram username is kinggutterbaby, has gained more than 300,000 followers posting videos answering peoples questions and concerns about COVID-19.

She credits her online popularity to her unfussy approach. She shoots her short videos speaking directly at the camera while sitting in her kitchen.

It also helps, Bristow said, that her Instagram feed is filled with pictures of her posing with cuddly animals, riding motorcycles and other things from her daily life.

Having people see me as a whole person helps remind them scientists are people with families too, and that the best interest of people is really at the heart of what were doing, she said.

Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiology professor at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, said she has sought interviews with conservative media outlets as a way to combat fear and misinformation, especially with the nationwide vaccine rollout underway.

Theres such a divide in society. Id really like to reach the other side and make a difference, said Iwasaki, who was already a notable advocate of women in science and tech fields before the pandemic but has seen her Twitter following swell to more than 90,000 this year.

Like other female scientists, she said that she has encountered frequent misogyny and mansplaining, but that it has only made her more determined to continue speaking up.

I have this platform, and Im going to use it, said Iwasaki. My priority is to get out the correct information, not respond to toxic comments.

Jha, meanwhile, admitted he wasnt prepared for the level of racial animus his pandemic commentary has generated a complaint shared by other scientists of color.

A native of India who has lived in the U.S. since the 1980s, he said much of it is of the go back to your country variety that he simply shrugs off.

But a gut check moment came in November, when Jha began receiving death threats after testifying before Congress and strongly rejecting assertions made by Trump and others that the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine could also protect people against COVID-19.

Jha said the threats were concerning enough that he notified local police, who sent patrols past his familys Boston-area home as a precaution.

Now, as 2021 dawns, he said he is looking forward to being less in the public glare.

When President-elect Joe Biden takes office, Jha said, he expects federal government authorities will take their rightful role as the public face of the nations pandemic response, after being diminished and undermined at critical times this year.

Thats who the American public needs to be hearing from more, he said, referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and experts like Fauci at other federal agencies. Im a poor substitute for whats needed.

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Twitter debates with Elon Musk, death threats after testifying before Congress: These experts in viruses are - MassLive.com

In todays Movie News Rundown: The Tanya Roberts situation; Dr. Fauci tells us when we can maybe go see a movie; that time Elon Musk produced a very funny satire; are you beginning to feel like youve already seen WandaVision?

Tanya Roberts Lives: Rumors of the Beastmaster and AView to a Kill actress death have been greatlyexaggerated. Her rep Mike Pingel told Variety that although her partner, Lance OBrien, originally thought she had died, the hospital called Monday morning to report she was still alive, Variety writes. However, Pingel said that Roberts remains in the ICU in dire condition. I love you, Variety, but maaaaaaybe you should take this article down?

Faucis Theater Prediction: In a talk with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, predicts that theaters and other shuttered businesses could reopen by early fall, if we all, you know, get it together. Hisanswer begins around the 22-minute mark below. A summary and brief transcription follows the video.

Summary: Fauci starts by says the U.S. first needs to speed up the process of vaccinating those who are most in need.Lets say at April, it will be what I call open season. Namely, anybody who wants to get vaccinated can get vaccinated. If we then diligently vaccinate people in April, May, June, July, that we will gradually and noticeably get a degree of protection approaching herd immunity. He clarified that no one knows what will constitute herd immunity yet, but estimated it will be somewhere between 70 and 85 percent of the population. If that happens, he said, we can expect some strong semblance of normality by early fall. Schools, theaters, sports events, restaurants. I believe if we do it correctly, we will be there by the early fall.

Elon Musk, Movie Producer: Last night,watching the terrific 2005 satire Thank You For Smoking, the missus and I noticed that one of the films producers is Elon Musk! And another is Peter Thiel. At that point, both were perhaps best known for making scads of money on PayPal.Say what you will about those guys in 2005 they produced a great movie. The only thing I dont love about the movie is when the reporter (Katie Holmes) who gets inappropriately involved with someone shes covering (Aaron Eckhart) because honestly, that doesnt happen in real life.

WandaVision: Heres a new TV ad for WandaVision, a new TV show made to look like old TV shows. Do you feel like youve seen this already, because of the long buildup and many teasers and trailers and whatever? Me too. But a prediction (and I have no inside information here): All the flashback-through-TV-history stuff weve seen previewed will happen very quickly in the first episode and then the show will get into some cool drama about whereWanda (Elizabeth Olsen) and Vision (Paul Bettany) actually are.

R.I.P. Marjo Bernay: Deadline has a good obituary for Bernay, who once led three Los Angeles-based IATSE locals and served on the board of another. She died Sunday at 79. Marjo also served on the California Film Commission, the Los Angeles Film Development Committee and the Los Angeles County Film Commission, and served as a trustee of the Motion Picture Industry Pension and Health Plans.

Comment of the Day: In response to our list of What Film Festivals Want, Ned Cordery writes: OK, we hear the festivals now for the festivals to hear this film maker. Tell us how many entries you receive and how many are screened for the previous year. Tell us how many entries are requested by the festival to be screened, bypassing the entry process. Detail your screening selection process. Thanks Rob. These are things we get into in our annual list of FilmFestivals Worth the Entry Fee, but well keep digging for moredetail.

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Fauci's Theater Prediction; Elon Musk, Film Producer; WandaVision - MovieMaker Magazine

Our nerds here at the Walter Bradley Center have been discussing the top twelve AI hypes of the year. Our director Robert J. Marks, Eric Holloway and Jonathan Bartlett talk about overyhyped AI ideas (from a year in which we saw major advances, along with inevitable hypes). From AI Dirty Dozen 2020 Part III, heres #4: Elon Musks fully self-driving software is finally going to work:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Tuesday that the test version of the companys Autopilot system will be released in a month or so. While he didnt describe its capabilities, Musk said that once its out, youll see what its like. Its amazing. Its clearly going to work.

Well then, what happened to Musks robotaxi fleet that was supposed to take over the roads in 2020 while their owners slept? Is there a point at which we can talk about that?

Oh, maybe not.

Our story begins at 01:12. Heres a partial transcript. Show Notes and Additional Resources follow, along with a link to the complete transcript.

Robert J. Marks: Number four of the hype list is Elon Musk claiming self-driving cars will be here next year, again. This is clearly hype, isnt it, Jonathan? Tell us whats going on.

Jonathan Bartlett: Bob, have you ever seen the movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray?

Robert J. Marks: Yes, I have. He wakes up to the same environment every day again and again and again. Yes.

Jonathan Bartlett: Yes. And so this is what we have. Elon Musk has been claiming that hes going to have self-driving cars next year since 2016. Now, I have to say, part of me loves Elon Musk and part of me cant stand the guy. And I appreciate his humor. I appreciate the fact that he is more approachable than a lot of the other tech billionaires. But theres also this huckster-ish salesmanship that just really drives me the wrong way. And so hes actually been selling self-driving cars since 2016. People are literally paying him thousands of dollars for this feature that doesnt exist. And he says, Oh yeah, itll be here next year. Next year, I promise.

And he says that your car will actually be worth more. Most people when they buy a car and they drive it off the lot, its worth less as soon as you drive it off the lot. And he says, Oh, our cars are going to be worth more because youre going to be able to make money with them by simply sending when you go to sleep, you can send them out to earn money for you by being a robo taxi, so you dont have to be there. And he makes claims like this, and he makes them every year. And its not surprising that hes making them right now because last year, he did it right before a $2 billion capital raise for his company. And now, hes doing it right before a $5 billion, thats billion with a B, a $5 billion capital raise.

And so he keeps on. In 2016, he said that youre going to be able to summon your car from across the United States. And it would be able to come and get you on its own, finding charging stations on the way. And it wouldnt even need a driver. And he said the only thing that could stop that was if we didnt get regulatory approval. Anyway, he keeps on saying that its going to be next year, next year, next year. Hes saying it again. And anyway, I just wish the media would stop falling for it.

Eric Holloway: Isnt his company supposedly now worth more than Apple?

Jonathan Bartlett: Oh yeah. So, basically, hes got this company so Tesla Motors, its a tiny percentage of the car market, but its basically worth more than the rest of it combined in terms of the value of the stock.

Eric Holloway: Yeah. Who said you cant make money with science fiction?

Note: The actual advances in autonomous vehicles are Level 4 (Waymos level), not Level 5 (Musks level), as Jonathan Bartlett has pointed out. The vehicle drives on supervised roads in controlled environments.

Well, heres the rest of the countdown to date. Read them and think:

5 AI hype: AI could go psychotic due to lack of sleep Well, thats what we can hear from Scientific American, if we believe all we read. It seems to be an effort to make AI seem more human than it really is.

6 in our Top 12 AI hypes A Conversation bot is cool If you really lower your standards. A system that supposedly generates conversationbut have you noticed what is says? Bartlett: you could also ask Who was President in 1600, and it would give you an answer, not recognizing that the United States didnt exist in 1600.

7 AI Can Create Great New Video Games All by Itself! In our 2020 Dirty Dozen AI myths: Its actually just remixing previous games. Eric Holloway describes it as like a bad dream of PACMan. Well, see if it is fun.

8 in our AI Hype Countdown: AI is better than doctors! Sick of paying for health care insurance? Guess what? AI is better ! Or maybe, wait Only 2 of the 81 studies favoring AI used randomized trials. Non-randomized trials mean that researchers might choose data that make their algorithm work.

9: Erica the Robot stars in a film. But really, does she? This is just going to be a fancier Muppets movie, Eric Holloway predicts, with a bit more electronics. Often, making the robot sound like a real person is just an underpaid engineer in the back, running the algorithm a couple of times on new data sets. Also: Jonathan Bartlett wrote in to comment Erica, robot film star, is pretty typical modern-day puppeteering fun, for sure, but not a big breaththrough.

10: Big AI claims fail to work outside lab. A recent article in Scientific American makes clear that grand claims are often not followed up with great achievements. This problem in artificial intelligence research goes back to the 1950s and is based on refusal to grapple with built-in fundamental limits.

11: A lot of AI is as transparent as your fridge A great deal of high tech today is owned by corporations. Lack of transparency means that people trained in computer science are often not in a position to evaluate what the technology is and isnt doing.

12! AI is going to solve all our problems soon! While the AI industry is making real progress, so, inevitably, is hype. For example, machines that work in the lab often flunk real settings.

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#4 Elon Musk: This Time Autopilot Is Going To WORK! - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence

It's not just Elon Musk who is moving to Texas, according to the media. Stories abound of techies, newly liberated from tiny, overpriced coastal apartments by remote work, fleeing to warmer, cheaper cities. If you believe the tech press and your social media feeds, about half of San Francisco is joining Musk in Texas.

But as lovely as Austin may be, is this story that hip, low-tax, high-temperature cities are going to be the big beneficiaries of a post-pandemic migration from traditional tech hubs actually true?

Not according to the Big Technology newsletter from tech reporter Alex Kantrowitz. A few weeks back, Kantrowitz announced he had gotten his hands on some exclusive LinkedIn data that shows the standard media narrative about where techies are heading just isn't correct.

Sorry, Austin

The numbers in question are what LinkedIn calls "inflow/outflow"data, which takeaccount of not just how many techies are moving into a citybut also how many are moving out. Is a particular area experiencing a net gain or loss of talent? This numberwill tell you. And Kantrowitz claims that if you compare this stat in 2020 withpast years, the big winners in the usual media narratives actually aren't.

"Austin, for its part, is not experiencing a pandemic-induced tech worker surge. Last year, Austin was gaining 2.06 tech workers for every one that left; now it's down to 1.84, a drop of 10.78 percent. Though Austin is still gaining tech workers this year, the notion that 2020 was a watershed year for tech workers moving there is a myth,"he writes.

Miami, another much buzzed about destination, is only gaining 3 percent more tech workers this year compared with last.

So who is actually winning the war to attract those fleeing the big cities because of the pandemic? Kantrowitz's newsletter offers all the details, but the short answer is a bunch of cities you probably haven't heard much about, including:

The larger lesson

Kantrowitz's newsletter is worth a read if you're looking for a deep dive into the data and its implications, but the biggest takeaway is probably also the simplest: Take media trend stories with a grain of salt. Predictions made in the midst of crises are notoriously unreliable, and as Kantrowitz and other data-focused commentators have pointed out, when it comes to real estate trendsreality is usually more complex than popular narratives.

Will the pandemic end up changing how we work and therefore the calculus of where we live? Almost certainly. But that doesn't mean the results will be as simple as an instant mass migration from San Francisco to Austin (or any other particular city). It will be a while yet before we see how this all shakes out, but wherever people land it's likely to be more surprising than the headlines you're currently reading.

The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.

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These Are the Cities Techies Are Really Moving To, According to New LinkedIn Data - Inc.

U.S. stocks are falling Monday, as big swings return to Wall Street at the onset of a year where the dominant expectation is for a powerful economic rebound to sweep the world.

The S&P 500 was 1.7% lower in afternoon trading after earlier dropping as much as 2.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell from its record set last week and was down 512 points, or 1.7%, at 30,094. The Nasdaq composite was 1.7% lower, as of 1:39 p.m. Eastern time.

Coronavirus cases keep climbing at frightening rates around the world, threatening to bring more lockdown orders that would punish the economy. The worsening numbers also raise the possibility that Wall Street has been overly optimistic about the big economic recovery it sees coming because of COVID-19 vaccines. Tuesdays upcoming runoff elections to determine which party controls the Senate may also be contributing to the volatility.

Elsewhere in the world, stocks fell in Japan as officials there mull a state of emergency due to surging virus cases. But optimism was more prevalent in other markets, with most European and Asian stock indexes higher. Treasury yields were holding relatively steady after giving up a healthy gain in the morning.

The United Kingdom has been hit particularly hard by a new variant of the coronavirus that appears to be more contagious. On Monday, the United Kingdom became the first nation to start using the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Oxford University and drugmaker AstraZeneca.

In the United States, regulators have already approved two other vaccines. China last week gave the greenlight for its first domestically developed vaccine. Others are also being tested.

The hope in markets had been that vaccines will allow daily life around the world to slowly return to normal. Thats helped spark a recent recovery for stocks of travel-related businesses, smaller companies and other industries left behind for much of the pandemic.

Even though infection rates and hospitalizations are at frightening levels, many investors have been betting that ultralow interest rates provided by the Federal Reserve and financial support for the economy recently approved by Congress can help tide the economy over until vaccinations become more widespread.

Governments might throw less stimulus at their economies than last year, but policy is still at a very loose setting, which supports stock prices and lending, said Kerry Craig of JP Morgan Asset Management in a report.

Investors should look through the bumpier start to the new economic cycle and focus on the improved earnings outlook, Craig said.

Of course, many risks remain for the market, even beyond the threat of economic lockdowns coming in the near term because of the raging pandemic. Prices have climbed enough that critics say stocks may be too expensive, particularly if the big rebound in corporate profits that investors expect to occur later this year doesnt materialize.

Politics is also still a wild card. If Democrats sweep the two runoff races in Georgia, that could lead to higher corporate tax rates, tighter regulations and other changes from Washington that would hinder corporate profits. Democrats already control the House, and President-elect Joe Biden is a Democrat.

But even in a Democratic sweep, markets see some causes for upside, including the potential for more stimulus for the economy. Democrats have been lobbying for $2,000 payments to go to most individuals, for example.

More than 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 were falling Monday. On the losing end of the market were several Big Tech stocks. Apple fell 2.8%, Microsoft dropped 2.7% and Amazon lost 2.2%. Because theyre so massive in size, the movements of Big Tech stocks have much more sway over the S&P 500 than other companies. Those three were the biggest drags on the index.

Airlines, cruise operators, hotel chains and stocks of other companies hit particularly hard by the pandemic also had some of the markets sharpest losses.

Tesla rose 4.2% for one of the biggest gains in the S&P 500 after it said it delivered 499,500 vehicles last year. Thats a 36% jump on the year, though it fell short of CEO Elon Musks goal of 500,000, which was set before the pandemic hit.

In European stock markets, Frances CAC 40 gained 0.7%, and Germanys DAX returned 0.1%. The FTSE 100 in London rose 1.7%.

In Asia, Tokyos Nikkei 225 lost 0.7% after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said a state of emergency was under consideration for the Japanese capital and three surrounding prefectures due to surging virus caseloads.

Suga called on restaurants and bars to close by 8 p.m. and said it would be difficult to restart a travel promotion program that was suspended last month. He said the government would expedite approval of coronavirus vaccines and begin providing injections in February.

South Koreas Kospi rose 2.5%, Hong Kongs Hang Seng gained 0.9% and stocks in Shanghai climbed 0.9%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.91% from 0.89% late Thursday. Earlier in the morning, it had climbed as high as 0.96% in a signal of rising expectations of economic growth and inflation. Markets were closed Friday for New Years Day.

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Stocks fall as trading starts for year of great expectations - Long Island Business News

Automakers have emerged from 2020, a challenging and unprecedented year, and some did so on a high note. Eight months weren't enough for the industry to fully recover from the low point in the spring, but a strong, if somewhat unexpected, recovery began in the summer and continued through December, even as the COVID-19 pandemic has surged across the country.

The U.S. market is now estimated to see sales finish around 14.5 million, a much stronger result than the 13 million range that some analysts forecasted earlier this year. Overall, sales are estimated to be down 14.9 to 15.5 percent, bringing sales to the lowest levels since 2012. The decrease was lessened because retail sales were strong, although fleet sales slowed considerably.

Shutdowns earlier in 2020 were part of the reason sales were down, of course. "This year presented the economy and the auto market with incredible challenges. As we close the year, it is remarkable to see how well the industry performed," Cox Automotive's chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in a note. "Retail vehicle sales will end the year down less than 10 percent despite losing six weeks of the most important time of the year."

General Motors finished the year down 11.8 percent compared to last year after finishing the fourth quarter with a sales growth of 4.8 percent. Pickups, as has been the case for most of the year, were a bright spot for GM; Silverado pickups saw annual sales increase 3.2 percent and Sierra pickups by 8.9 percent. Retail sales for GM were down only 6 percent for the year.

Hyundai sales grew 2.3 percent in December as compared to last year thanks to its popularand recently expandedcrossover lineup, including the Kona, Santa Fe, and Venue. Annual sales for the Korean automaker saw a decrease of 9.7 percent from 2019, a drop which is largely attributable to reduced fleet vehicle sales, as retail sales for Hyundai increased by 1 percent this year.

Toyota saw a strong finish to the year as December sales were up 20.4 percent by volume (that drops to 7.5 percent on a daily selling rate) and by 9.4 percent over the fourth quarter. On a volume basis, Toyota trucks ands SUVs finished the month with 32.1 and 28.5 percent increases, respectively; those divisions have cushioned Toyota's sales decreases elsewhere. Annually, Toyota's total sales sales shrank 11.3 percent.

J.D. Power estimates that trucks and SUVs are set to make up 79.1 percent of new-vehicle retail sales, up from 75 percent a year ago. Strong truck and SUV sales have underscored many of the results seen throughout this year, a continuation of a trend seen in past years.

Mazda, largely thanks to the new CX-30 which went on sale late last year, saw sales grow by 0.2 percent and 18.2 percent in December as compared to last year. Although Mazdas most popular vehicle, the CX-5, had sales contract by 5.9 percent this past year, the automakers largest offering, the CX-9, had a sales increase of 2.2 percent.

Tesla, which only reports globalnot U.S.sales numbers, saw considerable growth in its total deliveries, which came in at just under 500,000CEO Elon Musks goal for the yearat 499,550, an increase of 35.9 percent. The Model 3, Tesla's most popular vehicle, appears to have seen further growth in sales, but Tesla combines Model 3 and Model Y sales numbers so it's difficult to attribute the growth to one vehicle or the other.

GM chief economist Elaine Buckberg said in a statement that the automaker expects the pandemic to continue to put pressure on the auto industry throughout the year, but for that to ease beginning in the spring. "Widening vaccination rates and warmer weather should enable consumers and businesses to return to a more normal range of activities, lifting the job market, consumer sentiment, and auto demand."

Although the better part of a year now separates the industry from the shutdowns in the spring, inventories haven't recovered, largely due to pent-up demand. That has translated to early 2021 still not being an optimal time to buy a car, since dealers aren't pressed to move outgoing model year vehicles off their lots.

"It's certainly not much of a buyer's market right now: Inventory is still in short supply in certain areas, and automakers and dealers aren't faced with the pressure to use big discounts to clear out their lots like they normally do at this time of year," Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of insights, said in a note.

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New Car Sales See Mixed Finish in December after Tumultuous Year - Car and Driver