Daily Archives: November 6, 2020

Bitcoins price keeps climbing amid election uncertainty. Wasabi Wallet will offer automatic, privacy-preserving CoinJoins in its coming upgrade. A major Russian power provider is entering into a bitcoin mining joint venture.

Top shelf

$1B BTC forfeitureThe U.S. government is suing for the forfeiture of thousands of bitcoins, totaling more than $1 billion, that it seized on Tuesday. These bitcoins are said by the U.S. Department of Justice to be connected with the Silk Road marketplace. The address holding the bitcoins has been dormant since 2015, when the coins were transferred to now defunct crypto exchange BTC-e. According to Bloomberg, authorities seized the funds from an unknown hacker who had gained access to the address. The BTC are now likely to be auctioned, reintroducing them to the market supply. Near equivalent amounts of bitcoin gold, bitcoin sv and bitcoin cash were also recovered from the address.

Fat-fingeredReddit user ProudBitcoiner accidentally paid 23.5172 ETH (approximately $9,400) fee on a $120 transaction, the person disclosed in a post. The costly mistake occurred while manually entering a Gas Price while executing a swap on the DeFi liquidity protocol Uniswap rather than a Gas Limit. Mining pool Ethermine processed the transaction and collected the windfall fee, which was way higher than the current average of 0.0022 ETH ($1.07), though ProudBitcoiner has contacted the miner for assistance in potentially recovering the fee.

Mining co-ventureOne of the largest aluminum and power producers in the world will begin crypto mining through a joint venture with BitRiver, which already owns the largest mining venue in Russia and is looking to expand. En+, whose largest shareholder is Russian billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska, owns four major hydropower plants in Siberia that produce about 7% of the countrys electricity. The joint venture (an 80/20 split between En+ and BitRiver) will offer 10 megawatts of power for miners to host ASICs, with the potential to expand to 40 megawatts. En+ was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2018, though these prohibitions have since been lifted.

Exchange expansionCoinbase is hiring in Japan, with renewed plans to launch. While the U.S.-based exchange has not received a mandatory operating license from Japans Financial Services Agency (FSA), in March it became a second-class member of the Japan Virtual Currency Exchange Association, a self-regulatory organization approved by the regulator. IT, data, finance and accounting, legal, marketing and communications, customer experience, and international expansion roles are currently open. CoinDesks Sebastian Sinclair reports Coinbase has had plans to expand into Japan since 2016.

Privacy preservationWasabi Wallet is looking to overhaul its privacy-focused bitcoin software wallet with user-centric design and privacy improvements including automatic, default CoinJoins. (A CoinJoin is a method of mixing BTC transactions from multiple users to better conceal identities). Separately, Blockstream engineers will roll out improvements to bitcoin multi-signature transactions, with privacy benefits. The MuSig2 design builds on previous multi-signature schemes a way to authorize transactions using more than one private key while reducing the technical complexity and amount of communication between parties to operate.

Quick bites

Market intel

Bitcoins stimulusBitcoin crossed $15,000, the first time since January 2018. The cryptocurrency is now up 7.8% over the past 24 hours and over 108% on a year-to-date basis, with little sign of slowing. CoinDesks Omkar Godbole notes this recent rally is represents a ~40% climb in the last four weeks alone. Buoyed by an imminent sense of monetary stimulus, indeterminate of who wins the U.S. presidential election, analysts predict this rise to continue. We may not know what a post-election [fiscal] stimulus may look like, but investors continue to believe that the [Federal Reserve] will keep printing money at a pace that favors bitcoins finite supply, John Kramer, a trader at crypto liquidity provider GSR, told CoinDesk.

At stake

Anyones betPrediction markets are still buzzing with activity amid the uncertainty of the current U.S. presidential election process. Yesterday, decentralized predictions platform Polymarket became the fourth-highest fee-generating blockchain project, according to Cryptofees, only behind Bitcoin, Ethereum and DeFi protocol Uniswap.

Currently, perhaps obviously, the largest pool on Polymarket is Will Trump win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?, with nearly $8.8 million in trading volume. While predictions flipped in President Donald Trumps favor on the first night of ballot counting, most bettors now see former Vice President Joseph Biden as favored to win.

I think us being top 4 of fee-generating blockchain apps, literally anything blockchain-related, is insanity, Shayne Coplan, Polymarket CEO, told CoinDesks Sebastian Sinclair. Just in this election cycle alone, we have seen our volume surpass $10 million which is a lot higher than we expected in such a short time frame.

Of course, prediction markets are not the only way for people to take bets out on election results. Its likely most markets are, in some way, processing the current moment of anxiety and uncertainty.

For instance, trading in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures during the U.S. election has spiked 75% above the 2020 average. The CME is routinely one of the largest, and most institutionally-driven crypto options exchanges. Average daily open positions, which allow traders the option to buy bitcoin between a specified period, was up 20% in just the first two days in November compared to October.

Making sense of bitcoins current three-year high, Bill Noble, chief technical analyst at Token Metrics, said that no matter the electoral outcome, monetary stimulus is to be expected. This strengthens one of bitcoins core narratives (the things people believe about the oldest cryptocurrency) as a hedge against inflation.

If there is social disorder because of a Trump win, the Fed prints. If the election result is a blue wave and taxes rise, the dollar falls because the Fed prints more, and more and more, Noble said.

Going back to predictions markets: Anthony Sassano wrote, Ive long thought that one of the major reasons prediction markets hadnt taken off yet was due to little to no interesting markets being available to bet on.

Thats not to say predictions markets are any better or worse than traditional ways of measuring risk. Cami Russos The Defiant publication said Ethereum prediction markets are the best or worst answer to uncertainty, while Decrypt found FTXs platform largely mirrors FiveThirtyEights model.

With election headlines currently dominating the discourse, the stakes are high and the bets are on.

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Blockchain Bites: Bitcoin at $15K, $1B Silk Road Bust - CoinDesk

The crypto economy has jumped over the $400 billion mark and is now hovering around $414 billion at the time of publication. The largest crypto asset in terms of market cap, bitcoin has climbed over 9% during the last 24 hours steadily marching toward the $15k zone.

What do you think about bitcoin nearing the $15k price zone on Thursday? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Bitcoin Wisdom,

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Bitcoin Price Spikes Over 9% as the Crypto Asset's Value Nears $15K | Market Updates - Bitcoin News

The hunt for a hedge is on.

With the Federal Reserve keeping its benchmark interest rate near zero on Thursday and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon as a final presidential election outcome draws near, there's a lot for investors to consider when buying into certain asset classes, one trader said.

"You still have the S&P 500 trading under recent highs. The 10-year yield, more or less, has been sideways," JC O'Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday.

"I'm actually looking at another asset class that I think will work tremendously well within this current environment, and that's bitcoin," he said. "What I like about bitcoin is it's actually breaking out."

Cryptocurrencies tend to act well going into and coming out of elections on the whole, but bitcoin's technicals are particularly strong this time around, O'Hara said.

"When we looked at a chart of bitcoin, we could see a very strong technical setup here that we believe is setting up for further upside," he said.

"It's already breaking above the 2019 highs and from a technical perspective, there's really not resistance until we have to go all the way back to December 2017," O'Hara said. "So, in order to get to that level, we're seeing another 20% higher for bitcoin. So, I think that's the play here in the weeks to come."

Quint Tatro, chief investment officer of Joule Financial, said his post-Fed trades were all about "gold, gold and gold."

"There's no question that gold is ripe for further upside here," Tatro said in the same "Trading Nation" interview. "Ultimately, this is the area you want to be in to further capture that upside."

Gold's recent rally may have just as much to do with the market expecting the Fed to remain accommodative even if inflation reaches its target as it does with investors hedging around the election results, Tatro added.

The "easiest way to play [gold] for investors at home" is via the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) or mining stocks such as Agnico Eagle Mines or Barrick Gold, he said.

"These are great plays and, again, I think that there's further upside to play off of this inflation trade," he said.

Tatro did, however, see advantages to O'Hara's bitcoin call.

"I think if this theme works based on what we're talking about, gold will do exceptionally well and then the momentum horse will be bitcoin, there's no question about it," said Tatro, who owns some bitcoin in a Coinbase account.

The biggest risk for investors when it comes to the bitcoin trade is "liquidity," the CIO said.

"I can't buy it for clients. I can't yet justify that going into managed accounts or retirement portfolios," he said. "I mean, it's massively liquid. I'm not saying that there's no liquidity. But it's one of those asset classes where you wake up and the next day it could be down 20 or 30% and I just can't accept that risk for clients here."

Gold reached 1 month highs on Thursday as the dollar weakened. Bitcoin prices climbed nearly 8%, according to CoinMetrics.

Disclosure: Joule Financial and Tatro own shares of Agnico Eagle Mines. Tatro personally owns bitcoin.

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Buy bitcoin to play low interest rates and a friendly Fed, says trader who predicts 20% upside - CNBC

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $15,000 on Nov. 5 as excitement over the United States election spilled over from macro markets.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView showed BTC/USD tackle the $15,000 barrier repeatedly throughout the day, finally breaking it to post press-time highs of $15,200.

The move seals a hectic day for Bitcoin, which just 24 hours ago traded below $14,000. The last time that BTC/USD saw $15,000 was in early January 2018.

Reacting, many well-known Bitcoin figures noted that it was high time for the largest cryptocurrency to make a decisive move. Macro investor Dan Tapeiro in particular praised the price models of quant analyst PlanB.

Now enterring what is called the moment of realization for Bitcoin, he tweeted.

As Cointelegraph reported, some expected $15,000 to pose major resistance that would temporarily quash Bitcoins $1,000-plus daily gains.

Others argued that technically, there was very little standing in the way of new all-time highs once Bitcoin overturned resistance at $14,000 and then $14,500.

I have seen this show before, PlanB added, referencing the bull runs of 2013 and 2017.

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Bitcoin price hits $15K as daily gains top 9% and Trump Vs. Biden goes on - Cointelegraph

The Iranian government has adopted bitcoin for international trade as the countrys economic crisis deepens, with rising Covid-19 cases, depreciating rial, and intensifying sanctions imposed by the U.S. government.

Iran is undergoing a severe economic crisis as Covid-19 cases surge in the country. The Iranian health ministry says that the number of daily Covid-19 infections has more than quadrupled in less than two months. In addition, an increasing number of sanctions have been placed on Iran by the U.S. government, while the local fiat currency, the rial, continues to dramatically fall.

Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a hyperinflation expert, described the situation in Iran as a classic death spiral. He detailed on Wednesday:

Since 1/1/20, the rial depreciated 54.23% against the USD in the free market & Inflation rose from 21.89%/yr to 158.31%/yr by my measure.

While Iran has long been pro-bitcoin, having regulated the crypto industry since August 2019, the country made a major move last week to take cryptocurrency adoption to the next level. IRNA publication reported that the Iranian cabinet amended cryptocurrency legislation based on a joint proposal by the CBI and the Iranian Ministry of Energy to enable the central bank to use cryptocurrency to pay for imports. This could also help the central bank evade restrictions imposed by the U.S. government.

While the government is still working out the details of how this will be done, the publication reported that licensed bitcoin miners in the country will have to sell their coins directly to the central bank. Iran Daily described:

The Iranian government amended its regulations on cryptocurrencies to allow them to be exclusively used for funding imports at a time of increased pressure on the countrys normal use of hard currencies.

Based on the laws, cryptocurrencies legally mined in Iran will only be exchangeable when they are used to finance imports from other countries, the news outlet continued. The miners are supposed to supply the original cryptocurrency directly and within the authorized limit to the channels introduced by the CBI. Furthermore, the legal cap for the amount of cryptocurrency for each miner would be determined by the level of the subsidized energy used for mining and based on instructions published by the Ministry of Energy.

What do you think about the Iranian government using bitcoin? Let us know in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Iran Adopts Bitcoin for International Trade Amid Heavy Sanctions, Falling Rial, Soaring Inflation | Regulation - Bitcoin News

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back substantially since its yearly high at $14,149 a few days ago. Yet, there are five signs that the real rally is only just starting.

Rising HODLing activity, record-high fundamentals, low retail interest, higher time frame breakout and technical indicators suggest that a bigger bull run may be brewing.

Bitcoin has dropped over 6% from its local peak at over $14,000, a level it hasnt tested since 2017.

But on the weekly and monthly time frames, it recorded a clear breakout. It saw its weekly and monthly candles close above $13,000 for the first time in nearly three years.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the monthly chart shows Bitcoin is far above key moving averages. Technically, that means the momentum is still intact, but a healthy pullback could be beneficial.

During the peak of a bull run, Google Trends activity for the keyword Bitcoin skyrockets as retail demand floods in. When market sentiment becomes euphoric, whales tend to take profit, causing the market to decline.

In the past several months, despite the strong rally of Bitcoin, Google Trends activity has been low. This indicates that not a lot of retail investors are searching about the dominant cryptocurrency on Google.

Additionally, according to data from The Tie, the monthly tweet volume of Bitcoin in October only rose 7.8%. The lack of retail interest despite the price being at multiyear highs indicates BTC might be in an early bull market phase.

According to the Mayer Multiple, historical Bitcoin price cycles show the current BTC rally is not overheated.

The Mayer Multiple analyzes the price of Bitcoin based on its 200-day moving average, which evaluates its long-term price trend. If the multiple is above 2.4, it indicates that the rally is likely overheated. In 2017, when BTC hit $20,000, as an example, the multiple rose to around 3.8.

Currently, as of Nov. 2, the Mayer Multiple is hovering at around 1.27. This shows the rally is not overheated or overcrowded, despite BTCs uptrend from $3,600 to $13,350 since March.

During autumn, the northern areas of China undergo the rainy season. Major mining hubs that rely on hydropower can gain access to cheaper electricity, which allows them to mine Bitcoin more efficiently.

When the rainy season came to an end, there was a mass exodus of miners in the Northern area of China. Consequently, the hash rate of Bitcoin fell steeply in a short period.

Yet the 30-day average hash rate over the past year shows that the Bitcoin hash rate is still near its record high. Currently, it is hovering at roughly 132 million terahashes per second. In January, the hash rate was well below 100 million TH/s, by comparison.

Based on HODL waves, which evaluate the trend of long-time Bitcoin holders, more investors are increasingly holding BTC for longer periods.

HODLing activity has increased since March when the price of BTC briefly dropped below $3,600. Since then, investors have been steadily accumulating BTC.

The increasing holding of BTC put together with strong fundamentals, a favorable high time frame technical structure and positive technical indicators have strengthened the overall market sentiment that may eventually trigger an even bigger rally for Bitcoin.

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5 signs that the real Bitcoin rally may only be just beginning - Cointelegraph

getty

Ive been talking about bitcoin on its way to $14,000 for some time and now that day has come. To me it is a haven play and gold would be rising a lot if it wasnt for the fact that demand for jewellery has collapsed because of the moribund state of the global economy. Gold will follow in time because folks are buying gold in coin and bar form like crazy but that demand has to rise a lot to suck up the demand losses of the trinket industry.

There are enough problems in the world to stoke bitcoin because as I consistently maintain, if you want to stash cash away from difficultiesinflation, to governmental, to social unrest, to local difficulties the list is a long onethen bitcoin is the easiest and best way to do it if you are techno savvy.

Yet it doesnt take all these emerging problems that plague the world. The trail of history ended by Fukuyama has been kickstarted back into life but this chaos is not necessary for Bitcoin to rise and rise, it is only the catalyst.

Traders see the world through an acute model of they did that, so this follows whereas investors see the world through a chronic vision of tectonic forces grinding away to produce an inevitable outcome. It is tectonic forces driving bitcoin with the acute news driving the volatility that market players love, but ultimately the randomness of noise is washed out by the moving average of the passage of time.

Here is the chart. Its a classic breakout and a classic parabolic move:

The Bitcoin chart - a classic breakout

Now bear in mind I havent been a strong bear on bitcoin all these years without acquiring a decent amount so please feel free to moderate my opinion on the basis I am talking my book.

The following chart is what grabs my attention:

The Bitcoin chart is similar now to the last rise

Self similarity, self affinity is an interesting area of study and Ive written on it for 20 years and its made me money, so I look at this chart and drool. There are many mathematical reasons why patterns repeat at different scales, and work by my old friend the late great Benoit Mandelbrot is worth a deep dive for anyone who takes their technical analysis seriously. In a nutshell you can say that long-term processes, even ones driven by large amounts of randomness from moment to moment, create fractals that repeat their forms due to the configurations of the forces at work. Put simply, if you bash a sheet of iron with a hammer over and over at random you will get a fascinating pattern which looks similar all over its surface. Clouds, coastlines, plants, rocks, stock markets all demonstrate this effect and right now if bitcoin is under the same influence then we are in great shape.

To me $17,000 is close and the top of this move could be very high. You can scale the move yourself if this pattern was to play out to the full. The thing to remember is 2017s $20,000 went back to $3,000, so $40,000 could just as easily go back to $5,000.

In any event we are in for a wild ride and we can be assured of that for years to come.

Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors websiteADVFN.comand author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners andTrading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginners Guide.

Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards in 2018.

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Is Bitcoin On A Moonshot To Its All Time High? - Forbes

Influential investor Raoul Pal says the best trade he's ever found is bitcoin (BTC-USD), which he's described as "a call option on the future" and "the world's most pristine reserve asset."

In a recent interview on Yahoo Finance, Pal said that the central banks move toward digital currencies is "literally the biggest story" in his career.

Investors like Pal dont want to compete against central banks, but aim to create a digital world," Pal said, underscoring that despite big reservations, policymakers dont appear to want to ban crypto completely.

They understand the technology is out of the bottle. The genie is out of the bottle, the investor said. There's nothing you can do about it. It's not going away."

Despite the cryptocurrencys notorious head-spinning volatility and growing association with scams, Pal declared flatly that bitcoin and crypto is here to stay. Last week, PayPal (PYPL) launched its own service to buy, sell and hold digital currency.

Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds, asset managers, and sovereign wealth funds.

He's also the founder of Real Vision Television, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews where he recently shared a 35-minute video detailing his crypto thesis.

Pal has stated repeatedly that bitcoin's price could get to $1 million, becoming a $10 trillion asset class, and possibly surpassing the gold market. In the last year, bitcoin's price has surged more than 47% to last trade near $13,801. Last month, the digital currency jumped more than 28%.

With a market cap of around $240 billion, bitcoin is approximately the size of a "large, mid-cap S&P [500 Index] stock," Pal pointed out. As it moves to $500 billion or $1 trillion, "suddenly it's a real asset class and sucks in more money." One of the drivers will be the "wall of institutional money" coming.

Story continues

"It becomes a Soros-style reflexive loop where we've got the macro story backing it up, said Pal referring to George Soros, the speculative investor once credited with breaking the Bank of England in a bet against the British pound.

We've got the flow of funds backing it up, then we've got the move, which the central banks are driving. It's literally the biggest story I've seen," Pal said.

What it means is more printing of currency. That's not just the U.S. It's basically every single country on earth is doing the same thing. Raoul Pal, investor

According to Pal, the macro story supporting his thesis is that the economy is about to enter a "despair" phase, which is part of his view that recessions unfold in three distinct phases that culminates in a prolonged period of insolvency.

Growth, he said, is likely to remain negative for longer than people expect, and that's going to mean that kind of corporate cash flows, household cashflows are quite impaired, and there's going to be a rise of insolvencies, bankruptcies, and that kind of thing.

Against a backdrop of what Pal calls a "dead patch," the lacking fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and Europe, economic data rolling over in Europe, and a rise in coronavirus cases, the "only answer we have is either more monetary or more fiscal stimulus."

The monetary side's challenge is moving to negative rates; on the fiscal side, it means governments will have to launch large fiscal programs that the central bank will try and monetize in order to cap bond yields.

"What it means is more printing of currency. That's not just the U.S. It's basically every single country on earth is doing the same thing, Pal speculated

And that's driving down the relative value of fiat currency overall It's not just a dollar story, or a euro story or a pound story. It's the whole lot. And, that's driving higher gold, but particularly crypto, he added.

As for the central banks moving toward digital currencies, one of the potential drawbacks of a scenario where depositors have a direct relationship with a central bank could be the loss of certain freedoms.

"That creates a whole bunch of other issues in terms of what control do they have over you if your direct banking relationship is with a central bank? he asked. Sure, they can give you fiscal stimulus directly, but they can also tax you, or give you negative interest rates, or ...they can give you a negative or me a positive one," Pal explained.

"We don't know what world that is. Bitcoin gives us an option out of that," he added.

To be sure, Pal argued that a future where central banks issue digital currencies makes bitcoin a "legitimate part of the system." What it does is revolutionize the global financial system by creating the "internet of money" where the various systems will connect and speak with each other, like Apples iOS and Google Android.

"That connection of all the systems is coming and the central bank currency route is going to be the platform by which they can all connect in terms of ease of use, and on-ramps/off-ramps into our normal lives."

In Pal's view, bitcoin "plays a role as the world's most pristine reserve asset" for individuals, corporations, pension funds.

"It's an incredible asset. It's the only one with a limited supply with growing demand. It's an extraordinary thing," he said.

Julia La Roche is a correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

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Investor on why bitcoin is 'literally the biggest story I've seen,' may hit $1M and top gold's market cap - Yahoo Finance