Daily Archives: June 17, 2020

There will no extension of the Brexit transition period beyond December 31, 2020, meaning that the European Union and the UK will have to strike a deal in just six months to avoid Britain crashing out of the bloc without one.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on Monday not to extend the transition, which currently preserves much of the UK-EU relationship from before the UK left in January.

This despite the fact that talks have all but stalled between Europe and the UK, both due to failure to agree on key issues - such as fisheries - and the coronavirus pandemic, which has paralysed the UK and Europe since continent-wide lockdown began in March.

Under the agreement of the deal, the UK had until June to extend the transition period. But in a joint statement yesterday, Britain and the EU confirmed that the UK had declined to do so.

The EU and UK supported plans "to intensify the talks in July and to create the most conducive conditions for concluding and ratifying a deal before the end of 2020," leaders said in a statement.

"This should include, if possible, finding an early understanding on the principles underlying any agreement."

Johnson, speaking to the media after the meeting, said that the UK and the EU were not too far apart but also called for an acceleration in the negotiations.

He said he believed a deal could be agreed in July, adding that he didn't want talks to go on until autumn or winter.

Many politicians and business leaders in the UK and Europe have called for the negotiations to be prolonged, especially in the light of the coronavirus pandemic.

New research revealed that more than half of the nearly 2,000 British people surveyed by pollster Ipsos MORI said the UK should request an extension to the transition period so the government could focus on COVID-19.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, regretting the deadlocked state of talks, has repeatedly accused the UK of failing to respect commitments made in the divorce deal.

The EU has insisted that the UK must respect the "level playing field" in future competition and that an agreement on fishing must form part of an overall deal. The EU wants to see rights to fish in UK waters retained under the deal, something the UK rejects.

Rejecting accusations that the EU is being intransigent, Barnier said last week that his mandate from the EU27 countries was "sufficiently flexible to find compromises" with the UK.

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said ahead of the talks on Friday that while "the route towards an agreeable compromise exists", neither side is likely "to commit to finding it until later in the year, when the economic, and political, consequences of the alternative become significantly more tangible."

Georgina Wright, a senior researcher at the Institute for Government, also said that a deal is possible but is unlikely to be reached anytime soon.

"[The] UK wants a deal by the summer (to allow businesses time to prepare), EU can afford to go until 31 October. Both options look ambitious at the moment, she wrote.

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Brexit: UK and EU agree not to extend transition period beyond December 2020 - Euronews

The U.K. reiterated Friday, two weeks before the expiration of a deadline upon which it had to make its intentions clear, that it would not seek an extension of the current extension period that binds the country to the European Union until Dec. 31.

We have informed the EU today that we will not extend the transition period, U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove tweeted. The moment for extension has now passed.

The government separately said that it would delay implementing full-scale border controls for goods entering Great Britain from Europe, originally scheduled to start Jan. 1, until July. Controls will instead be gradually introduced in three phases in January, April and July to take into account the pressures on businesses triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The U.K.s final decision not to request an extension is in line with the consistent position of the prime minister, Boris Johnson, who had Parliament translate his electoral promise into law last year after the December general election.

The U.K. legally left the EU on Jan. 31 but has been since then in a transition period with the same rights and obligations of any member state save for a presence in institutions where decisions are being made.

Before Goves announcement, the Welsh and Scottish first ministers had written to Johnson demanding an extension, which the European Union has said it is open to.

Opinion: No-deal Brexit raises its ugly head again

The EU and U.K. are currently negotiating a treaty on their future relationship, with talks seemingly at a dead end. Major disagreements persist on future access to the U.K.s fishing waters and on the level playing field requested by EU negotiators in areas such as state aid, competition law, and labor and environmental regulations.

The U.K. separately began negotiating a free-trade agreement with the U.S. on May 5.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier wrote in May to indicate that the European Union was open to extending negotiations, but said on Twitter on Friday that the commission took note of U.K.s decision not to extend.

To give every chance to the negotiations, we agreed to intensify talks in the next weeks and months, he added.

Read:Pound slips as lead U.K. negotiator says little progress made in Brexit talks

Fridays announcement increases the likelihood of the transition period ending with a no-deal Brexit, meaning an exit from the European Union without an agreement in place.

By ruling out any extension decision now, the U.K. is basically saying that transition ends this year, Michael Dougan, professor of European law at the University of Liverpool, told MarketWatch.

The chances of reaching a meaningful deal, ready to enter into force by 1 January 2021, appear very slim, i.e. given the fundamental differences between the EU and U.K. positions and bearing in mind the unprecedented nature of the task at hand as well as the time scale available, he said.

Johnson is expected to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders on Monday to discuss the disagreements and try to jump-start Brexit talks.

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Its official: U.K. wont require an extension of Brexit talks, even as negotiations with EU hit gridlock - MarketWatch

Brexit has squeezed the political middle ground in Northern Ireland and pushed more people into their unionist and nationalist trenches.

A post-Brexit opinion poll has found that those in the region deeming themselves neither unionist or nationalist has fallen to 39%. The Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey revealed that this figure was the lowest in 15 years. As late as 2017, 50% surveyed said they were neither.

The poll of 1,200 people taken from September 2019 to February this year also reveals that more Catholics now describe themselves as nationalist since Brexit. Just under 60% of Catholics in Northern Ireland now categorise themselves as nationalist compared with 50% two years ago.

At the same time, the researchers from Queens University Belfasts Ark project found 67% of Protestants now classified themselves as unionist compared with 55% in 2018.

The Brexit effect however has not created any real sense of existential threat to the union among unionists, according to the NILT.

Among unionists, 62% think a united Ireland is unlikely within the next 20 years. Significantly, 37% of nationalists also think there will not be Irish unity within the next two decades.

The report concludes: we are seeing a retrenchment of identity positions in relation to traditional political allegiances.

Brexit has not dramatically affected unionists thinking, even among those who were pro-EU in the 2016 referendum. While there was a slight increase of 7% among unionists who said dont know to the prospect of a united Ireland, Brexit made no difference to the overwhelming majority of those in favour of remaining British.

Yet all three political categories unionist, nationalist and neither appear to continue to support the devolved institutions at Stormont.

Just under 70% of the population still support the Good Friday agreement and power-sharing government. The poll showed that 35% were happy with the agreement and did not want it changed; 33% were positive about the peace accord but wanted minor changes.

The authors of the report found this robust backing for devolution surprising given that for three years the local assembly was deadlocked with the main parties, Sinn Fin and the Democratic Unionists, unable to form a government.

Despite widespread cross-community anger over the three years of deadlock at Stormont, only 10% of those surveyed said they would like to see the UK parliament in London make all the decisions for Northern Ireland.

Among the overall population, only 30% said a united Ireland was likely within the next 20 years, while 46% said Irish unity was unlikely in the same time frame.

Dr Paula Devine, the co-director of Ark from the school of social sciences, education and social work at Queens, said: From this data, we can see that support for the Good Friday/Belfast agreement and the devolved institutions has been maintained among people of all backgrounds.

However, it is striking that 2019 also saw a strengthening of unionist and nationalist identities and growing pressure on the so-called middle ground.

The Ark NILT survey has been running since 1998 and provides an important source of data on how opinions in Northern Ireland have changed over the past 21 years.

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Brexit revives unionist and nationalist divide in Northern Ireland - The Guardian

Both Labour and Conservative strategists will be carefully analysing the views of voters in the Red Wall seats as their votes could determine the result of the next general election. What is absolutely clear - from the EU referendum in 2016, the European Parliament elections in 2019 and the General Election in 2019 - is that Red Wall voters wanted to leave the EU and want to, in line with the Conservative slogan, "Get Brexit Done".

On Friday, Michael Gove formally confirmed that the Government will not extend the transition period - a very welcome move. Meanwhile, Labour's new leader, Sir Keir Starmer,recently set out party policy on the transition period. Labour supports leaving the EU at the end of the year and would not seek any extension to that: "I would seek to ensure that the negotiations were completed as quickly as possible. I've not called for a pause because the Government says it's going to get it done by the end of the year".

A new report - Do Not Delay Brexit: The View from the Red Wall - published by the cross-party Centre for Brexit Policy (CBP), demonstrates that both the Government and the opposition policy of not extending the transition period beyond the end of 2020 is a deeply popular move amongst voters in the Red Wall. Extending the transition, something the Remain campaign continues to push for, would be a calamitous move.

This month, the CBP commissioned a poll of Red Wall seats. This was carried out by Savanta ComRes and found that overall, 51 per cent of Red Wall voters believe that the transition period should either remain as it is or be shortened, in comparison to just 42 per cent who want an extension.

What is most telling is the response when asked whether extending the transition period would make them more or less favourable to the Conservative Party. The results are clear that neither the Conservatives nor Labour would have had anything to gain and everything to lose from an extension.

The other striking element of the polling was the positivity people feel about life outside of the EU. When asked what would be better or worse as a result of an extension of the transition period, voters said everything would be worse off, including the cost of living, level of taxes, price of food, price of non-consumer good, waiting times for social housing, average wage. The only thing they thought would be marginally better was the NHS (by just 1 per cent).

It is not just the Red Wall voters who wanted to stick to the current timetable. A previous poll demonstrated that 44 per cent of the electorate were in favour of ending the transition period at the end of this year or quicker, while only 40 per cent wanted it extended into 2021 or beyond.

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Sticking to our current timetable and not delaying Brexit is the right thing to do - Telegraph.co.uk

The European Union accused the United Kingdom Wednesday of seeking to maintain a relationship with the bloc similar to that of an EU member after Brexit. The EU said they found this idea unacceptable.

"Britain is demanding a lot more from the EU than Canada, Japan or other partners," the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier told a forum in Brussels. "We cannot and we will not allow this cherry picking."

He also said that the UK "cannot have the best of both worlds" and stressed the point that "we will never compromise on our European values or on our economic and trade interests to the benefit of the British economy."

"In many areas it is looking to maintain the benefits of being a member state without the constraints," Barnier said. "It is looking to pick and choose the most attractive elements of the [EU]single market without the obligations."

UK pandemic recession will hit hard

Barnier also expressed bewilderment that the UK remained inflexible despite the predicted economic fallout from coronavirus pandemic.

The UK has seen the most deaths in Europe andone of the longest lockdowns and is expected to see its economy hit harder than most other European countries, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

The forum comes ahead of high-level talks on Friday when the European Parliament will urge the UK to "urgently revise its negotiating position" after months of talks have yielded little consensus.

'No real progress' so far

The UK officially left the EU in January 2020 and is currently in a transition period due to expire at the end of the year. The EU is open to an extension of this period if trade deals cannot be agreed; UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly dismissed the idea of an extension.

Johnson is set to hold a video conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen later in the month to review talks.

Speaking last week, Barnier said he "regrets that, following four round of negotiations, no real progress has been achieved" and accused the UK of "not engaging in detailed on the level playing field."

Key sticking points in negotiations are fisheries and the issue of the land border the UK shares with the EU between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Barnier also said he hoped that the next round of talks could take place face-to-face as Europe re-opens borders closed owing to the coronavirus pandemic. This has yet to be confirmed.

ed/aw (AFP, Reuters)

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It's essentially a choice of a harder or softer Brexit. Harder prioritizes border control over trade. UK firms would pay tariffs to do business in the EU, and vice versa. The softest Brexit would see access to the single market, or at least a customs union, maintained. That would require concessions including the payment of a hefty "divorce bill" to which the UK has provisionally agreed.

Businesses have expressed concern about a "cliff edge" scenario, where Britain leaves the EU with no deal. Even if an agreement is reached at the EU bloc level, the worry is that it could be rejected at the last minute. Each of the 27 remaining countries must ratify the arrangements, and any might reject them. That could mean chaos for businesses and individuals.

If there is no agreement at all, a fully sovereign UK would be free to strike new trade deals and need not make concessions on the rights of EU citizens living in the UK or pay the financial settlement of outstanding liabilities. However, trade would be crippled. UK citizens in other parts of the EU would be at the mercy of host governments. There would also be a hard EU-UK border in Ireland.

The EU and the UK could reach a deal on Britain's exiting the bloc without an agreement on future relations. This scenario would still be a very hard Brexit, but would at least demonstrate a degree of mutual understanding. Trade agreements would be conducted, on an interim basis, on World Trade Organization rules.

Most trade tariffs on exported goods are lifted, except for "sensitive" food items like eggs and poultry. However, exporters would have to show their products are genuinely "made in Britain" so the UK does not become a "back door" for global goods to enter the EU. Services could be hit more. The City of London would lose access to the passporting system its lucrative financial business relies on.

Under the Swiss model, the UK would have single market access for goods and services while retaining most aspects of national sovereignty. Switzerland, unlike other members of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), did not join the European Economic Area (EEA) and was not automatically obliged to adopt freedom of movement. Under a bilateral deal, it agreed to do so but is still dragging its feet.

As part of the European Economic Area, Norway has accepted freedom of movement something that no Brexit-supporting UK government would be likely to do. Norway still has to obey many EU rules and is obliged to make a financial contribution to the bloc while having no voting rights. Some see this as the worst of both worlds.

Turkey is the only major country to have a customs union with the EU, as part of a bilateral agreement. Under such an arrangement, the UK would not be allowed to negotiate trade deals outside the EU, instead having the bloc negotiate on its behalf. Many Brexiteers would be unwilling to accept this. It would, however, help minimize disruption at ports and, crucially, at the Irish border.

Author: Richard Connor

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Brexit: EU accuses UK of trying to maintain economic benefits amid coronavirus recession - DW (English)

A military plane used by the Prime Minister and members of the royal family is being repainted in the colours of the Union flag.

The grey RAF Voyager jet is expected to get a red, white and blue makeover at an airport in Cambridge as part of a pre-planned overhaul.

Boris Johnson has previously questioned why the plane is grey.

As foreign secretary he said would like to have a Brexit plane to help him travel the world and promote the Governments vision of global Britain.

He complained in 2018 that the RAF Voyager jet, which is shared by the Prime Minister, senior Cabinet members and the royal family, never seems to be available.

An RAF source said speculation that such a plane would have an appropriate paint scheme based on the Union flag would not be incorrect.

A spokesman for the Royal Air Force said: An RAF Voyager is currently in Cambridgeshire for pre-planned works.

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Boris Johnson's 'Brexit plane' gets a red, white and blue makeover - ITV News