Daily Archives: May 14, 2020

David Tyack was professor of education and history in the Graduate School of Education at Stanford University between 1969-2000. He died in 2016. Author of scores of books and articles, his One Best System (1974) has become a classic history of urban schooling. He and Larry Cuban wrote Tinkering toward Utopia (1995). This commentary appeared in Education Week June 23, 1999.

At a time when a pandemic has upended daily life including the closing of nearly all schools since mid-March 2020, school reform talk has accelerated to hyper-drive for altering existing practices and upending traditional ways of schooling well beyond health and safety measures. I thought that Tyacks points in this commentary made over two decades ago, might be useful to consider during this momentous crisis.

The word conservationist has an honorable ring when citizens struggle to preserve wild nature or fine old buildings. When people work to preserve what is good in education, however, they are often dismissed as traditionalists or stand-patters. When real estate developers propose paving over wetlands, environmental activists protest. But when educational innovators want to transform educational practice, few ask what might be lost in the process. Government requires environmental-impact statements for construction projects, but not student- and teacher-impact reports for educational reforms. Who will be there to defend endangered species of good schools, or good educational programs, from the relentless, if zig-zag, march of educational progress?

Believers in progress through educational reform often want to reinvent schooling. The dead hand of the past has created problems for rational planners to solve in the future. Inspired by the progress syndrome, innovators often exaggerate defects to motivate by alarm, try to wipe the educational slate clean, and then propose a short time frame for their favorite projects, hoping to see results before the next election or job opportunity or grant proposal.

The word progress pops up everywhere, even in the rhetoric of conservatives who want to blame schools for economic problems. During the Reagan administration, the official American report on education for UNESCO was called Progress of Education in the United States, while the major tool for measuring achievement bears the name of the National Assessment of Educational Progress.

The ideology of progress through change obscures what a conservationist strategy illuminates: It is at least as important to conserve the good as to invent the new. It is easy to become so obsessed with what is not workingthe cacophony of bad schoolsthat one forgets what makes many schools sing. Good schools are hard to create and nurture, for they require healthy relationships of trust, challenge, and respect, qualities that take time to grow. When teachers, students, parents, and administrators create such learning communities, a conservationist strategy seeks to preserve what makes them work, to sabotage ignorant efforts to fix what aint broke, and to share knowledge about how to grow more such places.

As Ive talked with diverse people across the country, Ive asked them what was their most positive experience in school. They may have forgotten whatever fad was sweeping education or the teenage culture, but they remembered key relationships, especially with teachers. They spoke, often with great warmth, about teachers who challenged them to use their minds to the full, who kindled enthusiasm for a subject, who honed their skills on the playing field with relentless goodwill, who were there to support them in times of stress or sadness, and who knew and cared for them as individuals.

When teachers were asked what were their greatest satisfactions in their own work, almost nine in 10 said helping students to learn and grow as social beings. Its a sign of a school worth conserving when the best memories of its former students and the best rewards of its teachers are well-aligned. Such schools have grown not just in favored and prosperous places, but also in economically deprived but culturally strong communities, as Vanessa Siddle-Walker has shown in her studies of Southern black schools.

Conservationist does not simply mean conservative (though it can mean that). Conservationists in education would probably span as wide a political spectrum as those in the ecology movement, who range from radical members of Greenpeace to genteel Republicans active in the Audubon Society. Conservationism is an attitude, a habit of mind, not a political orthodoxy. It analyzes as well as advocates. It seeks to moderate the pendulum swings of policy that decree that schools should be larger (or smaller), that more (or fewer) courses should be elective, or that governance should be more (or less) centralized.

Many different sorts of people could take part in preserving what they find valuable in education. Intrinsic in the work of school board members, for example, is the duty to be trustees of the past as well as planners of the future. Teachers, parents, students, and administrators know first-hand what works in their schools and what they believe should be preserved, though endangered from time to time by fiscal retrenchment or a change in policy climate.

The conservationist cannot look only backwards, for preservation involves planning for the future as well. The work of the educational conservationist, like that of the defender of wild animals, is a challenging one. It takes resources and smarts and political savvy to preserve Mongolian Gazelles or good schools.

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Reform as Conserving What Is Good in Schooling (David Tyack) - stopthefud

If anyone had a dividend on the overuse of the term exit strategy they would surely be cashing in by this point but thankfully conversations are now shifting towards the new place we are entering and to building back better.

A turning point was on March 23 when Nicola Sturgeon announced her lockdown exit plans and talked about a new normal.

Today, along with third sector pioneers in Dundee, I will meet the deputy governor of the Bank of England to turn our attention to life after lockdown.

As an optimist, I am attracted to the language of possibility; the potential to do things better and the belief that our collective tomorrow can be brighter.

Despite the current potential for mental deterioration due to our national isolation, author Matt Haig last week wrote: Can we stop pretending our former world of long working hours, stressful commutes, hectic crowds, infinite choice, mass consumerism and 24/7 everything was a mental health utopia?

So, what might this new normal be?

In these difficult times, one positive thing has been the re-emergence of the emphasis on the family and our elderly.

To date, the Western Isles in the north-west corner of Scotland is the only area to have gone four weeks without any new cases and no deaths due to Covid-19.

While the virus has raged through care homes, the people of Harris and Lewis are often known for taking elderly family members in and caring for them in their old age.

They remind us there is another way of doing things.

Another interesting aspect of life is home-schooling.

While the initial parental buzz quickly wore off, one man told me last week he is enjoying saving 500 per month in nursery fees.

For families with more than one child and fewer devices, however, access to online resources has made education a luxury for some and prioritises the digitally-literate.

On the other hand, it has given my wife a qualified teacher the opportunity to give focused attention to areas in the education of my own children.

Last week, my family were moved by the news my young sister-in-law a nurse in Glasgow had contracted Covid-19 having been required to share personal protective equipment with other nurses, all of whom also contracted the virus.

Despite living less than a mile from the testing centre at Glasgow Airport, it was fully booked.

She had to embark on a four-hour trip to the testing centre in Edinburgh.

I hope our new normal rediscovers the vital social fabric of the family.

I hope it enables parents to maintain an input in the education of our children.

And, crucially, I deeply hope we start to adequately value beyond weekly applause our lowest-paid NHS staff by offering a meaningful pay rise and adequate protection to deliver the service they do in a way that preserves their welfare.

We can, and must, do better.

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EWAN GURR: 'New opportunities will be presented by new normal' - Evening Telegraph

Con base en lo logrado buscaremos emprender una transformacin pacfica y ordenada, s, pero no por ello menos profunda que la Independencia, la Reforma y la Revolucin; no hemos hecho todo este esfuerzo para meros cambios cosmticos, por encimita, y mucho menos para quedarnos con ms de lo mismo" -Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador. June 28th, 2018

In his closing speech during the 2018 Mexican presidential election, when his victory was all but certain, Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador (known by his initials as AMLO) promised that his government would embark on the Fourth Transformation of Mexico. The previous three arguably being the War of Independence from Spain (1810-1821), the conservative-liberal civil War of Reform (1857-1861), and the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920). Almost two years have passed since then, and the Fourth Transformation moniker has proved to be partially fitting but for the wrong reasons. As president, AMLO has shown less interest in governing the country than in transforming it. These are not one and the same thing. If the goal of governing is to respond to social demands, the goal of transforming is to find a place in history.

Politicians actively engaged in governing their countries must contend with the most basic of economic principles: that we live in a world of scarcity. This means they need to balance their populist electoral promises with limited budgetary resources. One way to do this is by prioritizing social demands according to their level of urgency and electoral profitability. AMLO is no exception in this regard. In his first eighteen months in office he has already reallocated vast amounts of public monies to infrastructure projects a new oil refinery in his home state of Tabasco and welfare programs to benefit and expand his political clientele for example Jvenes Construyendo el Futuro, a conditional cash transfer program for unemployed youth. What sets AMLO apart from other politicians is that his infrastructure and welfare projects are not to be seen simply for what they are: limited government responses to social demands. Instead, they ought to be interpreted as signs that his Fourth Transformation is moving forward.

Transforming a country is a more benign task for politicians than governing because it releases them from the iron law of scarcity. In time of transformation, politicians put themselves in a time and place where everything needs to be redone and thus resources suddenly abound. This brings to mind Chiles slogan during its recovery in the aftermath of the 1960 Valdivia earthquake: Because we have nothing, we will do everything. Mexico at the moment is also reeling from an earthquake, of the electoral kind. In 2018 the party system in place since 1991 collapsed, sending shockwaves across the nation. Keenly aware of this situation, AMLO is sparing no expense to establish a new political order: during his first year in office he spent half the government savings accumulated over the past 20 years in the Fondo de Estabilizacin de los Ingresos Presupuestarios.

Because AMLO is concerned with transforming the country rather than governing it, some of his policy decisions may seem bizarre from afar. Take for example the cancellation in 2018 of the new and partially built Mexico City Texcoco International Airport. Commonly referred to in the press simply as Texcoco, this was at the time the largest infrastructure project in Latin America, and the signature project of former president Enrique Pea Nieto (2012-2018). Notwithstanding the public support for completing the project, AMLO decided to cancel the whole thing one month before taking office based on a dubious referendum in which less than one percent of the electorate participated. By doing so, his incoming government assumed all investment losses and took on a massive debt that uses airport taxes as collateral to pay it down. For the next 20 years, travellers coming and going into Mexico City will pay for an airport that will never be completed. It is now commonly accepted that this decision derailed the economic prospects of AMLOs government by bringing investors confidence in the country to historic lows.

Financially catastrophic as it was, AMLO has pitched the cancellation of Texcoco as palpable proof that the transformation of the country is underway. An epic victory against his nemeses: neoliberalism and corruption. Perhaps epic, but given the massive scale and cost of Texcoco, also pyrrhic and quixotic. But then again, in time of transformation what matters is the here and now, and to make things different regardless of the outcome. Together we will make history was AMLOs campaign slogan, and he is delivering. In his Fourth Transformation, different is good and signals history in the making.

The transformation that AMLO is selling is an utopia: a place never to be found but which is worth fighting for. In so doing we find redemption. Like their more senior relative, Revolutions, transformations are open-ended processes that can go on indefinitely, bringing us closer and closer to a new society that neither we nor our children will ever see. Many are eagerly taking part in it, others simply jumped on the bandwagon. However, sooner or later scarcity will show its head again. Time is ticking for the Fourth Transformation. To buy himself more time, AMLO is pushing for an mid-term on his presidency in the hopes of keeping alive the momentum of his 2018 electoral victory. Regardless, eventually the country will wake up to some shocking news: the transformation that AMLO promised is marching victorious, and what better proof of this than the trail of destruction it left behind, and the ruin of the nations infrastructure and finances.

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AMLO: a will to transform, not to govern - Open Democracy

With readers turning to their home viewing options more than ever, this daily feature provides one new movie each day worth checking out on a majorstreamingplatform.

To fill the void left by the absence of this yearsCannesFilm Festival, for the next two weeks, this column will be dedicated to films that premiered at the festival over the course of seven decades.

When Andrea Arnolds American Honey world premiered May 15, 2016 at the Cannes Film Festival, buzz for the coming-of-age drama was so strong that IndieWire named the film an instant frontrunner to win the Palme dOr. (Alas, it won the Jury Prize). Rave reactions for Sasha Lanes acting debut poured in at such an overwhelming rate that it became common knowledge among cinephiles that an instant star had been born. IndieWires Eric Kohn called Lanes performance a star-making turn, while Variety hailed the actress as a magnetizing newcomer and The Hollywood Reporter called her a luminous new talent.

As it turns out, a star was not born at Cannes. Four years after American Honey rocked the Croissete, Sasha Lane is still waiting for her Hollywood breakthrough. American Honey is all the proof she needs that it still needs to happen.

The movie, now streaming on Netflix, stars Lane as an aimless Oklahoma teenager named Star who finds purpose in life after befriending a group of drifters and traveling across the midwest with them. Star falls in love with a bad boy (Shia LaBeouf) and makes an enemy of the groups leader (Riley Keough), all while discovering her own sense of identity. One of Arnolds key sequences in the film is when Star first discovers the reckless teenagers who will soon become her makeshift family. Star is at a local Kmart when the teens breakout in a ruckus while dancing to Rihannas We Found Love. The way Star gazes upon the teens, most notably LaBeoufs Jake, is not unlike the way moviegoers gaze upon Lane in her acting debut: It starts with intrigue and ends up as an overpowering seductive force.

Arnold and cinematographer Robbie Ryan film the bulk of American Honey in close-ups of Lanes face, a recurring image made more focused because of the movies 4:3 aspect ratio. For long stretches of the films 163-minute running time, the camera lingers on Star for minutes on end as she observes her surroundings or listens to music in the backseat of a van. Its a testament to Lane that American Honey never lags, and only gets richer and more involving the more the camera studies her face. Its a performance so rich in vulnerability and clear in telegraphing the awakening of her identity that it feels like a special effect. Whether its the dangerous allure Star feels while wooing rich businessman into giving her money or the torment raging inside of her as Jake meddles with her heart, Lane makes every emotion feel present, urgent, and spontaneously alive.

Lanes performance is such a towering accomplishment that her career should have launched overnight. The actress deserves to be a star, or at least have a shot at a major Hollywood star turn. Lane hasnt surfaced in a major role since American Honey, which says more about the current Hollywood landscape than anything else. There remains a serious shortage of studio projects centered on women of color as the leads, and Lane isnt alone here: Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) and Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk) are among the other actresses of color who dominated buzz at festivals and are still waiting for their big Hollywood moment.

American Honey

By comparison, Jennifer Lawrence leveraged her Winters Bone festival breakout into Hollywood stardom with X-Men and The Hunger Games. Timothe Chalamet went from Call Me By Your Name Sundance breakthrough to landing the lead in Dune after a string of prestige dramas like Beautiful Boy and The King. Both Lawrence and Chalamet landed their studio leading roles within two years of their festival breakouts. Lane is still waiting for hers four years after American Honey. Sure, Lane didnt land the Oscar recognition that Lawrence or Chalamet did with their crossover turns, but she wasnt MIA from awards season, either. Lane earned nominations from the Indie Spirit Awards, the Gotham Awards, and the British Indie Film Awards for her work in American Honey (and thats saying nothing of the uphill battle actors of color face in being nominated by the Academy).

Instead of booking major studio productions, Lane followed American Honey with supporting roles in low-profile Sundance premieres Hearts Beat Loud and The Miseducation of Cameron Post, which won the Grand Jury Prize but fizzled in theaters. The actress would go on to land a supporting role in Lionsgates 2019 Hellboy reboot, but as IndieWires Eric Kohn observed in his review: She ought to lead an action vehicle of her own rather than getting relegated to a thankless part in someone elses entourage.

Fortunately, Lanes star turn could be arriving in the future without any help from a major Hollywood studio movie. The actress has two high profile television gigs in the pipeline: Shes playing the lead in Amazons Utopia, a series from Gone Girl scribe Gillian Flynn that was once set for HBO and David Fincher, and shes reportedly landed a supporting role in Loki on Disney+. These projects could bring Lane one step closer to her studio lead debut, but her astonishing work in American Honey shouldve been enough to seal the deal.

American Honey is currently streaming on Netflix.

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Stream of the Day: Four Years After American Honey, Its Time to Make Sasha Lane a Hollywood Star - IndieWire

GalleriesNow is the worlds leading gallery guide, with everything you need to know about great art wherever you are Our selection of five great exhibitions recorded in VR for you to make a virtual visit online.

International Center of Photography Tyler Mitchell: I Can Make You Feel Good

This exhibition inaugurates the ICPs new integrated center at Essex Crossing in New York with works that visualize a Black utopia, contrasting with representations and experiences of reality while offering a powerful and hopeful counter-narrative. link

Massimo De Carlo Wang Yuyang: The Moon Landing ProjectGalerie Eva PresenhuberTodd-White Art Photography. Courtesy Massimo De Carlo

A new series of large-scale canvases filled with luminescent primary colours which investigate the depths and significance of the earths only permanent natural satellite. link

Serpentine Gallery Formafantasma: Cambio

Photo: George Darrell

As part of the Italian design duos ongoing investigation into the extraction, production, and distribution of wood products, this exhibition looks into the role that design can play in translating emerging environmental awareness into informed, collaborative responses. link

Yancey Richardson Gallery Guanyu Xu: Temporarily Censored Home

Beijing-born and Chicago-based artist Guanyu Xu secretly creates photographic installations throughout his childhood home in order to queer his parents domestic space, transforming it into a scene of revelation, protest and reclamation. link

From the VRchives Galerie Eva Presenhuber Doug Aitken

Doug Aitken. Courtesy Galerie Eva Presenhuber. Photo by Stefan Altenburger Photography

Shown for the first time, this immersive new body of work from Aitken takes the viewer into a different world, one that explores ideas and takes you places that language cannot fully articulate. link

GalleriesNow is the worlds leading gallery guide - everything you need to know about great exhibitions, wherever you are.

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5 great exhibitions with 360 virtual visits - selected by GalleriesNow - FAD magazine

"On TV And Video" is a column exploring opportunities and challenges in advanced TV and video.

Todays column is written byJames Moore, chief revenue officer at Simpli.fi.

The introduction of connected TV (CTV) and streaming platforms has enriched consumers lives and pushed content to new heights, but on the back end, it has created a land of confusion within some brands and the advertising agencies that support them.

Both broadcast and digital teams have a stake in the game, but executives are in some cases wrestling to determine which team digital or broadcast will ultimately own CTV within the agency. The two teams individually bring unique advantages to the table, yet many are struggling as digital teams try to adapt to be more like broadcast teams, and broadcast teams attempt to translate digital to make it more comparable to the broadcast world that is their point of reference.

So, the question remains, who within the advertising agency owns the media budgets for video ads shown on web-enabled streaming or on-demand programming? The answer is not black and white.

As TV is the single largest form of traditional media with the most eyeballs demanding the most dollars, advertising agencies have historically divided consumer reach into two buckets: digital and non-digital audiences. Once these two specialties have been clearly separated, each can focus on their specific tasks, which include unique workflow, vendors, terminology, planning, pricing, attribution, reporting and more.

Drilling down further into whos actually doing the work, todays advertising sales reps who have historically sold to digital investment teams are now also calling on linear investment teams, while sales reps who historically sold linear TV are now also calling on digital investment teams. The digital sales reps are being met with historical TV-specific workflows, planning, pricing, reporting requirements, etc. and reporting back to their companies that they must evolve faster to fit more easily into a TV buyers world using GRPs, broadcast calendars and trafficking systems. At the same time, traditional TV sales reps are being met with digital specific workflows, planning, pricing, attribution and reporting requirements.

While the growth in digital video via other devices and streaming services has been spectacular, according to Nielsens Total Audience Report in February, viewing on traditional TV networks still represents approximately 80% of total viewing. Hence, the bulk of TV and video budgets are managed by the TV buyers at agencies.

Sales reps are still learning from each other. Digital sales reps wish they could do what linear TV reps can do, and vice versa.

The changes and the convergence of teams wont stop anytime soon. Over the next few years, we can expect other developments thanks to the rise in CTV, some of which will complicate the gaps between digital and broadcast teams.

The need for agencies and their processes to continue their migration from GRP planning to audience planning. In the past, TV buyers would curate buys across inventory as a proxy to reach their target demographic. Today, more marketers are curating the audience demographics and allowing technology to reach and serve impressions to consumers wherever and whenever they view content.

The ability to effectively and more precisely reach consumers and control frequency across multiple devices and creative types. Silo planning across creative types and devices should become a thing of the past if buyers embrace household-identity graphs. This means reach and frequency is not merely a TV metric, and advertising served on the TV can and should be part of a coordinated and measured effort across previously disconnected channels.

The definition of premium continues its migration from placement to performance. The history of digital advertising has proven that the right ad unit, to the right user who takes a measurable action, defines what is and is not premium. As TV attribution improves to better measure in-store incremental foot traffic and online incremental conversions, shows with higher viewership counts traditionally sold at higher CPMs will come under significant scrutiny, as ROI in its simplest form is dollars spent divided by measurable outcome.

The ability for both campaign budgets and impressions to be optimized via AI across devices and creative types. We are speeding into a world with more devices, more creative types, more targeting data and better attribution. As the number of variable factors increase per campaign, the variations of optimization and decisions multiply by the thousands, and the pressure to make the right decisions faster is a trend that isnt going away. Mastering automation and embracing AI and the use of multivariate combinatorial bidding models is key.

Vendor and department consolidation due to the need for omnichannel workflow and trafficking technology. Ultimately the consumer experience for every form of creative crosses screens, and silo-based buying and measurement methodologies create problems for marketers. Having a unified view into an audience and the ability to control and measure touchpoints and results is a utopia that the industry continues trying to solve.

Connected TV has truly changed the advertising industry in the past few years, but as weve learned, it will only continue to evolve, and agencies need to be prepared to meet the demand for this changing landscape. Digital buyers will see more TV buying personnel engaged in their planning and execution of digital campaigns. Digital CTV technologies will find their way into integrated relationships with legacy TV software applications common across the TV buyer landscape.

Getting this right as every screen becomes digital and interconnected will require nearly every individual in the media-buying supply chain to evolve in some way.

Follow Simpli.fi (@simpli_fi)) and AdExchanger (@adexchanger) on Twitter.

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Impending Challenges In Advanced TV Could Complicate The Digital And Broadcast Team Divide - AdExchanger

How Is COVID-19 Affecting the Global Economic Order? Scenarios for the Global Monetary System

Supply chains collapse, companies are facing bankruptcy, and mass unemployment ensues. Covid-19 has triggered a global financial crisis and is forcing states to develop rescue packages on a scale not seen before. In addition, the crisis has called into question the US dollars hegemony and could redefine the global monetary system. A team of researchers from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) has developed four scenarios that show how political decisions will shape the post-Corona world.

Scientific scenarios have become an important tool for political decision-makers as they tackle the Covid-19 pandemic. Models of the Corona Crisis developed by researchers, and predicting shocking infection and death rates, have persuaded governments around the world to adopt strict lockdown measures and reduce economic activities to a minimum. The magnitude of this decision is now becoming increasingly apparent. The measures adopted have triggered a global economic and financial crisis that is affecting both industrialized and even more so developing nations, jeopardizing efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Governments tackling this crisis face unprecedented challenges. Their task is made all the more difficult by the dearth of economic scenarios and models that could support decision-making in this situation.

In a collaboration between the IASS, Harvard University and Boston University, a team of researchers led by Steffen Murau, Joe Rini and Armin Haas has developed an innovative political-economic methodology to study the impact of global economic and financial crises precipitated by events such as the Covid-19 pandemic on the global monetary and financial systems. Their findings were recently published in the Journal of Institutional Economics.

Supply chains collapse, companies are facing bankruptcy, and mass unemployment ensues. Covid-19 has triggered a global financial crisis and is forcing states to develop rescue packages on a scale not seen before. A team of researchers looked into the future of the international financial system. Armin Haas explains.

At the outset of their study, the researchers examined the dynamics underpinning the development of the global monetary and financial system in recent decades. The team identified two trends that are of central importance in this context: First, while the US dollar is the centerpiece of the global financial system, a substantial share of this currency is now created by private financial institutions outside the USA, and thus outside the control of the United States central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed). This happens, for example, when banks outside the United States create deposits by issuing loans in US dollars to finance trade within global supply chains. The researchers refer to this as offshore dollar creation. Second, shadow banks have become systemically relevant entities and are creating novel forms of credit instruments that researchers now refer to as shadow money.

In the case of complex and privatized structures such as the offshore dollar-based monetary and financial system, crises are key drivers of change. It is in these moments that political decision-makers lay the groundwork for future developments. The global financial crisis of 2007 2009, which escalated following the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, was one such moment. That crisis began in the shadow banking system and was essentially a bank run on offshore dollars and shadow money. The massive loss of confidence driving that crisis could only be mitigated through the introduction of an institutional innovation: a new form of cooperation between the central banks of the G7 countries so-called swap lines through which central banks outside the USA could borrow US dollars from the Federal Reserve to support domestic banks.

In todays global dollar system, the Federal Reserves US dollar swap lines are the ultimate safety net, explains Steffen Murau, who has researched this issue first at the IASS and then at Harvard University and Boston University. The European Central Bank is the Federal Reserves most important partner in this area. In times of crisis, the ECB can borrow US dollars from the Fed and then pass them on as loans to euro zone banks. The crucial issue for the future of the global US dollar system is how robust this safety net will prove to be.

The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered a new global crisis, the scale of which we still cannot foresee, says Armin Haas, who leads the research team at the IASS. How political decision-makers respond to this crisis is crucial for the future development of the global economic order. Covid-19 is also a crisis of the global monetary and financial system based on offshore dollars.

This aspect has been the focus of research at the IASS since 2017: In our research project, we studied scenarios both with and without systemic crises and developed four alternative scenarios, explains Haas. The scenarios explore possible developments over the next two decades and, in light of the unfolding Covid-19 pandemic, are already proving to be highly relevant for policymakers.

The researchers explore four possible development pathways in their analysis. The first two presuppose that the financial system continues to evolve resolving crises with the instruments of the existing system, much as occurred in 2008. The other two explore possible developments resulting from a collapse of the system that the Fed failed to prevent.

The analyses explore the following four scenarios:

In the business as usual scenario (1), US dollar hegemony persists, with the USA maintaining its role as the central stabilizing factor in the financial system. In this scenario, Trumpism and its policy of America First prove to be passing fads. The Eurozone, meanwhile, remains mired in a backlog of much-needed reforms and China fails to establish itself as a rival financial centre.

The current Covid-19 crisis is putting extreme pressure on the global privatized US dollar system. But the Federal Reserves interventions in March and April have stabilized the system for the time being, allowing it to continue along its current development path. In doing so, the Federal Reserve is acting as the de facto global central bank, says Steffen Murau. The eurozone, on the other hand, is in troubled waters. Once again, the issue of Eurobonds is putting the EU to the test and revealing the gulf between reality and European aspirations to strengthen the euros international role.

In contrast, the second scenario sees the establishment of competing monetary blocs, with the EU and China emerging as two significant rivals to the USA. In this scenario the latter no longer stands as the guarantor of global stability, while the Eurozone successfully overcomes its deficits and China succeeds in internationalizing its currency, the renminbi. These developments result in the further regionalism of world trade and the financial system.

The pandemic is exposing the failings of Americas welfare state. The collapse of the US economy could weaken the geopolitical position of the United States in the medium term. China, on the other hand, has a head-start when it comes to overcoming the effects of the pandemic and could use this to its advantage in the trade war opened by Trump, Murau explains.

In the third (revolutionary) scenario the Federal Reserve proves unable to withstand the global crisis and the global US dollar system implodes in a series of defaults and bankruptcies of leading private financial institutions. However, the scenario assumes that the G20 succeeds in creating an alternative global monetary system at the height of the crisis; a system built not around a single national currency, but around an international organization. In this scenario, the international monetary hierarchy has shifted, with national currency areas now operating alongside each other. In the EU, the Member States reintroduce their former currencies, but retain the euro as a regional supranational unit of account. Offshore credit money creation is completely abolished. While shadow banks continue to operate in some states, elsewhere governments push for tougher regulation aimed at eliminating shadow money.

The Federal Reserves rescue efforts run counter to the policies of the Trump Administration, which has probably not yet grasped the scope of these interventions. The question is whether the Fed can maintain this level of commitment in the medium term, especially in the event of Trumps re-election. It is not impossible that a chain of circumstances could take the Feds swap network to breaking point an event that would be comparable to the Bank of Englands cancellation of the gold standard in 1931, says Armin Haas. Naturally, theres a touch of liberal utopia to our third scenario. However, proposals for this kind of system have been around in various forms for at least 150 years.

In the fourth scenario, following the collapse of the existing system based on private offshore dollar creation, efforts by the G20 to establish an alternative monetary and financial system founder and eventually fail. Instead, international monetary anarchy reigns. As a consequence, the international payments system grows increasingly unreliable, international value chains break down and barter arrangements become commonplace in international trade. The result: a hard-hitting global depression that compels states to experiment with different institutional arrangements in order to tackle the challenges. These experiments lay the foundations for the development of a new system at some point in the future.

This is the only scenario in which crypto-currencies are of more than marginal importance, says Joe Rini, who has previously worked in the fintech sector. In our view, the strong path dependency of the global dollar system makes it unlikely that crypto will emerge as a genuine alternative unless, of course, the current system implodes. Crypto currencies have been largely ignored in the context of the Covid-19 Crisis and have failed to profit from it so far. But this could quickly change in the event of an uncontrolled systemic collapse.

Our scenarios are not intended to be exact predictions of the future, nor are they normative assessments or institutional blueprints, explains Armin Haas. What they do is extrapolate existing trends and create a space of possibility in which we can explore the development of the international monetary system along different development pathways through to 2040.

The ideas presented in these scenarios are already being discussed in expert circles. What we have done is to link these ideas to political and economic development pathways and to highlight the central role of shadow banks and offshore money creation, says Haas. These scenarios emphasize the decisive role of the US Federal Reserve as the creditor of last resort for the global dollar system and its ability to tackle the crisis.

The development of scenarios to explore the future of the international monetary and financial system dovetails with the mission of the IASS to analyze and support global transformations towards sustainability. Exploring the implications of different scenarios for the ecological transformation of our societies is integral to our research program. After all, financing for transitions towards sustainability will either be provided through the global financial system or they will not take place, says Armin Haas. Efforts to create a sustainable and climate-friendly global economy cannot succeed in the absence of a functioning global monetary and finance system.

Reference: The evolution of the Offshore US-Dollar System: past, present and four possible futures by Steffen Murau, Joe Rini and Armin Haas, 6 May 2020, Journal of Institutional Economics.DOI: 10.1017/S1744137420000168

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COVID-19 Has Triggered a Global Financial Crisis and Called Into Question the US Dollars Hegemony Whats Next - SciTechDaily