Daily Archives: May 6, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- Oils rally resumed -- after prices doubled over five days -- amid optimism that output cuts are easing a huge supply glut and demand losses have bottomed.

Futures in New York rose above $25 a barrel after earlier breaking above their 50-day moving average for the first time since January. Russian oil production was down 16% in the first five days of May, Interfax reported, while Plains All American Pipeline LP sees close to 1 million barrels a day of Permian shut-ins in May. Output in North Dakota was down by 450,000 barrels a day, according to state data, though some shale drillers said they may restart output if prices rose above $30 a barrel.

OPEC+ began implementing 9.7 million barrels per day of production curbs on May 1, which along with some early signs of demand recovery has helped to ease fears the world will run out of storage space for crude and fuels. The Trump administration is pivoting to phase two of its virus response in an effort to reopen the nations economy.

While its possible the worst is over for oil markets, most analysts dont see a rebound to pre-virus levels of consumption for at least a year, with some questioning if it will ever happen. The risk of a second wave of infections in the U.S. as states reopen cant be discounted, while deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing may hamper the global economic recovery.

The Russian news suggests a faster full compliance with cuts versus the past, said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. Theres also likely some technical buying from momentum investors.

Winners from last months oil market rout are now starting to emerge. Hedge fund Westbeck Capital Management, which posted its best ever month in April after being short oil prices in the front of the curve, said the bull case for crude is now simply exceptional. Pierre Andurands commodities fund is now up almost 70% this year after further gains in April.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 8.44 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported, according to people familiar with the data. That would be the smallest increase since the week ended March 20, if confirmed by Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday. Supplies at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 2.68 million barrels, the API said.

The markets focus will remain the state of crude oil inventories at Cushing and U.S. production, said BNP Paribas SAs Head of Commodities Strategy Harry Tchilinguirian. Last week, the market took some comfort from the fact that the pace of additions to Cushing storage moderated.

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Oil Resumes Rally With Prices Doubling Over Last Five Days - Yahoo Canada Finance

Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected. On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40.

The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect. Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance. Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90. Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.

We are not suggesting that Natural Gas could rally 90% over the next few weeks, but we are alerting you that a move to $2.40 seems highly likely after our incredible bottom call on April 6, 2020.

This Daily Natural Gas chart highlights the rounded bottom setup that prompted us to make the bottom warning. Skilled traders will see an inverted Head-n-Shoulders pattern where the head consists of a double-bottom pattern near the end of March and into early April. The opportunity to buy into Natural Gas below $1.70 presented a very clear opportunity with little risk.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights the Fibonacci Price Modeling systems projected upside targets. The first target, near $2.40, is an easy target for a first profit level. The next upside target level for-profits should be near the RED LINE, near $2.55. Beyond that, if Natural Gas continues to rally, the next area for skilled traders to pull profits would be the $2.95 level. Any move higher beyond that level would be a gift with a target level near $3.60.

Overall, this has been an excellent trade. We got our members into this trade fairly early and are already pulling profits and trailing stops. It certainly helps to have the modeling systems and seasonal analysis tools we use to find these setups for our members but you can do it too. All it takes is a bit of skill and understanding of how certain markets operate within seasonal trends and setups. Otherwise, if you dont have the time to research every chart we can do it all for you and just send you the trades we are taking.

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As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Dont miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of myActive ETF Swing Trading Newsletterhad our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain.This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of myPassive Long-Term ETF Investing Signalswhich we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris VermeulenChief Market StrategiesFounder of Technical Traders Ltd.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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Natural Gas Breaks $2.00 On Upside Rally and Next Target - Yahoo Finance

ROME (AP) Italians strolled in the park, grabbed take-out cappuccinos and paid their respects to the astonishing number of dead Monday as the European epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic gingerly woke up from the continents first and longest lockdown.

Greece, Portugal and Belgium also eased virus restrictions, while Britain was poised to soon overtake Italy as the country with the most confirmed COVID-19 dead in Europe.

Officially, 4.4 million Italians were allowed to go back to work at construction sites, factories and manufacturing jobs deemed to be at lowest risk for contagion. Traffic ticked up in city centers, commuter and long-distance trains sold out and more people ventured out after restrictions on movement eased for the first time since Italy locked down March 11.

We are being careful, trying not to do too many things, but at least we are finally outside and breathing some fresh air, said Daniele Bianchi as he strolled through Romes Villa Borghese park.

Across the Tiber in Villa Sciarra, Valerio Pileri stood by the stroller as his 2 1/2 year-old grandson scampered in the grass.

He was going around and around again on the terrace with his bike, but its not the same as the villa, Pileri said.

Protective masks were ubiquitous even the Swiss Guards started wearing them at the Vatican and were required on public transport and inside cafes, restaurants and gelato shops that opened for take-out service.

But not all businesses that could reopen did, a sign that some owners decided it wasnt worth it to serve a handful of customers or hadnt managed to implement new social distancing and hygiene standards.

And any newfound sense of freedom was clouded by the first comprehensive reckoning of just how great a toll COVID-19 had taken.

Italys national statistics agency reported Monday that 49% more people died in March than the average over the past five years, with some 25,354 excess deaths registered from Feb. 20-March 31, the height of Italys outbreak.

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Since only 13,700 of those deaths were confirmed positive for the virus, Italys official COVID-19 toll of 29,000 is likely off by more than 10,000. The other deaths likely involved infected people who were never tested or people who died as an indirect result of the pandemic because the hospital system collapsed in the north, ISTAT said.

For the first time in two months, Italians were able to honor some of those dead with funerals, though attendance was limited to 15 people. Cemeteries also reopened for visits, with mourners told to keep their distances from one another.

I feel a bit out of my comfort zone but my daughter is here, and as soon as the cemetery opened I came, said Paola Lazzaro as she visited her daughters grave at Romes Flaminio cemetery.

In Milan, passengers on sold-out south-bound trains had their temperatures taken before they boarded, and commuter Gabriella Fusca said she felt safe making the trip to Rome.

All the distances were respected. Everybody was wearing face masks, she said.

Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala praised the morning commuters, saying access to the metro had to be blocked just a few times and that some buses had to skip stops because they were too full to take on new passengers.

Milanesi behaved in a very diligent way, he said.

Luxury carmaker Ferrari relaunched production Monday, after purchasing 800 blood tests for Ferrari employees and their families to use on a voluntary basis. The company is also developing its own contact tracing system, so workers can determine if they have been in contact with anyone who tested positive.

Italy is also planning to test 150,000 with a pilot antibody test and roll out a mobile contact-tracing application, but both initiatives are behind schedule and missed the start of the country's economic reboot.

In Greece, after 42 days of lockdown, people were no longer required to send an SMS or carry a self-written permit justifying why they were outdoors. Greece has been credited with keeping its number of deaths and critically ill down with its early lockdown, registering just 144 victims and 37 in intensive care.

Some businesses were also allowed to re-open, with hairdressers appearing among the most popular.

Konstantina Harisiadi installed plexiglass barriers at the reception and manicure stations and a sign read Silence is security to discourage chit-chat and limit the potential for virus transmission.

Things are different. Theres no spontaneity - we cant greet each other, speak, laugh. Were entering a new era, she said.

The sentiment was shared in Italy.

The future is a big question mark, said Gianni Berra as he served his first cappuccinos of the day to a take-out only customers in Rome. The normal welcoming bar environment will not be there anymore."

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Elena Becatoros reported from Athens, Greece. AP writers Colleen Barry in Milan and Trisha Thomas, Francesco Sportelli and Paolo Santalucia contributed from Rome.

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Italy eases virus lockdown, and gets first reckoning of toll - Yahoo News

U.S. universities are reeling from the chaos resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, and one deans far-sighted business move might help save his school a lot of money.

In 2017, the Gies College of Business and the Grainger College of Engineering jointly took out a three-year contract with Lloyds of London to insure against a large drop in revenue from Chinese students resulting from specific events such as a trade war, a global pandemic, and visa restrictions.

The business schools dean, Jeff Brown, created the policy with two other university professors, Tim Johnson and Morton Lane. Brown declined to discuss details of the policy when reached by Yahoo Finance.

The coverage placed was innovative and required us to design the product as nothing like it had been done before, Andrew Martin, a broker at Besso, who syndicated the deal through Lloyds, told Yahoo Finance.The foresight of Dean Jeff Brown and the structuring skills of Dr. Morton Lane was a fortuitous combination that resulted in what may prove to be a valuable hedge for the University of Illinois.

The policy provides for up to $61 million in coverage to match revenue from Chinese students in the business school and the engineering school. The two colleges together have been paying $424,000 a year in premiums.The terms would be triggered if the two schools saw a combined revenue decline of at least 18.5% from a loss in Chinese students, according to Lane. (If there is a 50% decline in tuition revenue from Chinese students, the insurance payout would be about $30 million.)

Muslim students wearing hijab scarf on campus of the University of Illinois. (Photo by: Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

The stipulated events have largely occurred: The Trump administration continues to tighten U.S. immigration policy, a global pandemic is underway, and a trade war has been going on since 2018.

Visa restrictions, in particular, will have an unprecedented impact on both current international college students in the US and also incoming college students this fall, Command Education CEO Christopher Rim told Yahoo Finance.

The status of future international students is unclear, as non-critical visa appointments have been suspended since late March, Rim added. This will completely change the landscape of the student body on college campus over the next one to two years.

International students make up 5.5% of the total student population in the U.S., according to a report by the Institute of International Education. Chinese students form the majority of students, followed by Indian, South Korean, and Saudi Arabian students.

The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign campus on Friday, Jan. 31, 2020. (Photo: E. Jason Wambsgans/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

The higher education industry has been in flux even before the coronavirus pandemic, due factors such as reduction in state funding and enrollment declines. And according to one analysis by the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, Illinois public universities have taken a 48% cut in funding since 2000.

And in 2019, the Gies business school shut down its residential MBA programs and pivoted online, responding to weaker demand.

If you were able to get every dean in the U.S. under a lie detector, outside of maybe the top 20 M.B.A. programs, every one of them would admit they were struggling to maintain enrollment andlosing money on the program, Brown told the Wall Street Journal in 2019.

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Chinese students account for a little more than 11% of the total student population at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Brown said in 2018 that the revenue from these students makes up a fifth of the business colleges revenue.

Having worked with Dr. Lane over many years it was not the first time that we had created insurance financial products, said Martin, the insurance broker. Lloyd's underwriters worked with us and we developed a programme that met the client's requirements.

Aarthi is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering consumer finance. Follow her on Twitter@aarthiswami.

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The University of Illinois made a prophetic insurance bet in 2017 - Yahoo Money

In a call with Yahoo Finance on Tuesday afternoon, Beyond Meat founder Ethan Brown sounds like a man ready to get his earnings day over quickly so he could start executing on what may be a defining summer in the 11-year history of his plant-based meat outfit.

Amid a shortage of traditional meat and poultry as the likes of Tyson struggles to keep plants safely open during the coronavirus pandemic, Brown is poised to unleash fury on a meat market in bad need of healthier alternatives...and actual supply. Browns weapons in this meat war? New value packs for supermarkets with more plant-based food in them and competitive pricing on traditional product lines and on offerings at restaurant chains.

All of these efforts should make Beyond Meats offerings cheaper to consumers at long last and drive trial. With that trial, there is a good chance of gaining plant-based food loyalists.

This is the industrys moment, Brown tells Yahoo Finance. Calling the death toll stemming from the coronavirus pandemic heart-wrenching, Brown adds, We need to make sure that we are part of a solution.

Here is how Beyond Meat (BYND) performed versus Wall Street estimates in the first quarter:

Net Sales: $97 million vs. estimates for $88.2 million

Gross Margin: 38.8% vs. estimates for 30.73%

Diluted EPS: 3 cents a share vs. estimates for a loss of 7 cents a share

2020 Guidance: company pulled its full-year guidance (previously called for sales of $490 million to $510 million)

Beyond Meat plans to make a big statement on product pricing this summer in a bid to gain new customers. Here is how Brown explains the actions:

We're still priced at a premium, but we have to become relevant to the consumer cost basis because we can get people to try our products in a way that we may not have otherwise. So we will be be aggressive on pricing this summer. It makes sense. We're not going to reset our long-term margin targets. We are going to use the summer as an opportunity to bring new consumers into our brand, increase the overall consumer base, so you will see us be aggressive in stores with longer discounting than we've done in the past. Deeper with the discounts as well, as well as special promotions with our quick-service restaurant partners. We want to use this opportunity to introduce people to plant-based meat and hopefully get them to stick with it.

How Wall Street reacts to Beyond Meats earnings day will be interesting to watch. The company blew away analyst forecasts yet again (due to strong demand at retailers and restaurants), across the board. It has ample liquidity ($246.7 million in cash to be exact) to fund its growth ambitions. Brown sounded impressed in our interview with the early response to new Beyond Meat products at Starbucks stores in China.

Shares were up almost 5% in after-market trading Tuesday.

The wildcard here is how the Street views more aggressive discounting on Beyond Meats traditionally premium-priced product. While the initial read may be of margin concerns amid price drops, we would suggest that those worried investors revisit the thesis on Beyond Meat. At its core the investment thesis is to get people into plant-based meat in large volumes one way to do that is to price competitively in a period in the world (now) where there are mass shortages in proteins.

Sounds like the investment thesis is still intact right now, no?

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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Beyond Meat earnings beat expectations, founder says it's the plant-based meat 'industry's moment' - Yahoo Finance

Publicly, the Trump administration is pushing for states to let businesses reopen amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Privately, it's forecasting a very disturbing future.

The Trump administration is forecasting the U.S. daily death toll from coronavirus will rise to 3,000 by June 1. That's nearly twice the current toll of 1,750 deaths per day, The New York Times reports via an internal administration document.

This is what CDC thinks the future looks like. https://t.co/5NnljVJqVJhttps://t.co/bQYUD9LUGM pic.twitter.com/xGGm1SZYfF

Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) May 4, 2020

The White House's prediction is based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention modeling, though reported COVID-19 deaths have already far outpaced the CDC's model. The CDC also predicts the U.S. could go from adding about 25,000 new coronavirus cases every day to adding 200,000 or more daily by the end of the month. As some states resume business as usual, those growth rates could further worsen.

More stories from theweek.comTrump is pursuing a herd immunity strategy whether intentionally or notHow George W. Bush exposed Trump's biggest failureTrump doesn't wear mask during tour of Arizona mask production facility

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The Trump administration is privately estimating the daily coronavirus death rate will double in the next month - Yahoo News

New data from the University of Pennsylvania suggests that relaxing lockdowns across U.S. cities and states could have serious consequences for the countrys battle to contain the coronavirus, which has infected over a million people while killing more than 66,000 people.

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus even if states dont reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

Kent Smetters, the PWBMs director, said the decision to reopen states is ultimately a normative judgement that comes down to the statistical value of life.

He explained: Thats not a crude way of saying we put a dollar value on life, but its the idea that people will take risks all the time for economic reward.

That figure far surpasses estimates and models that the White House has cited from the University of Washington, which put the death toll at roughly 73,000 by the start of August.

The U.S. economy is reeling as statewide lockdowns have thrown 30 million Americans out of their jobs, and stoked a furious debate about how long the restrictions can remain in place. Some states, like Georgia, are choosing to partially reopen, allowing businesses like restaurants, hair salons, massage parlors, and more to open again.

However, partially reopening would also cause the death toll to rise, the universitys data found. An additional 45,000 lives would be lost, according to Whartons Budget Model, bringing the U.S.s death toll from COVID-19 to 222,000.

However, the policy of reopening states would provide a much needed economic boost, according to the model.

Almost all net job losses between May 1 and June 30 would be eliminated, the report found.

To date, more than 1.1 million are infected by the virus, and over 65,000 have died.

Keeping stay at home orders in place would result in a growth contraction of 11.6% year over year, the data found, but opening the states would curb some of that decline somewhat, paring back the downturn to 10.1% year over year.

However, Whartons data found that the state lockdowns will result in a more dramatic increase in unemployment, boosting the total of unemployed to nearly 50 million.A partial reopening would partly blunt that impact, but not by much.

In a bright spot for the plan to open states, the PWBM projects that almost all net job losses would be eliminated.

The model aims to quantify the trade-off to the economic benefits of reopening states amid the coronavirus pandemic that has killed nearly 240,000 people worldwide, with some 60,000 deaths in the United States.

The PWBM shows that when it comes to states plans to reopen their economies, not all states are created equal. One states decision could cause more damage than another.

If Colorado were to fully open, for example, the PWBM projected that by the end of June over 10,000 would die from coronavirus. Thats much higher than neighboring Kansas, where roughly 1,300 would lose their lives to COVID-19 under the same scenario.

And when it comes to economies, if Wisconsin stays closed, GDP would decline by 13%, compared to 10.8% in Maine.

You may look at some states and say You know what, theyre not ready to reopen yet, Smetters said.

Kristin Myers is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow heron Twitter.

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Wealthiest Americans raking in billions from coronavirus pandemic: report

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Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model - Yahoo Finance