Daily Archives: July 3, 2017

Saturday

Peace Lutheran Church, 1301 Ave. D: Ralph Sappingtons Country/Gospel Liturgy is featured during the 5 p.m. worship service.

United We Stand, Karin, Ryan and Dijana Gunderson in concert at Atonement Lutheran Church, 1290 Sierra Granda Blvd.: At 7 p.m., Heavenly Harp presents United We Stand, a concert by Karin, Dijana and Ryan Gunderson, a mother, daughter and son trio, to encourage people in these tenuous times. The concert features harp, piano, flute and vocals on popular and Christian pieces. For information, call 245-7004, or go to christianharpmusic.com.

Billings Association of Humanists meeting at First Congregational Church, 310 N. 27th St.: Ben Hahns presentation of An Introduction to a Resource Based Economy is at 1 p.m. The term and meaning of resource based economy originated with Jacque Fresco. It is a whole factor socioeconomic system in which all goods and services are available without the use of money, credits, barter or any other system of debt or servitude.

St. Johns Lutheran Ministries, 3940 Rimrock Road: Marcia Muir, staff chaplain, leads worship in the Ocee Johnson Chapel at 7 p.m.

Pilgrim Congregational Church, 409 36th St. S.: After the 9 a.m. coffee fellowship, the Rev. Steve Heppner leads the 10 a.m. worship service, themed God is worshiped for his authority over peace. Also, John Christian, of Billings American Legion Post 4, gives a patriotic Scripture reading, and Sharon Baldwin offers special music.

Peace Lutheran Church, 1301 Ave. D: Ralph Sappingtons Country/Gospel Liturgy is featured, and Paul Freeman gives a musical offering during the 10 a.m. worship service.

East Gate Wesleyan Church, 625 Mattson Lane: The Holy Eucharist is celebrated as the Rev. Kevin Jones, of Grace Anglican Church in Sheridan, Wyoming, leads the 3 p.m. worship service. Fellowship and refreshments follow.

St. Andrew Presbyterian Church, 180 24th St. W.: At the 9:30 a.m. worship service, the Rev. Susan Thomas preaches about transformation, using the texts Isaiah 61:1-3 and Mark 5:1-20, and the Lords Supper is shared with all who wish to partake. Thomas served as a hospital chaplain for many years at Billings Clinic. After the service, refreshments are served in the Garden Room.

Unity of Billings, 9 14th St. W.: At 10 a.m., the Rev. Danielle Egnew, singer/songwriter and interfaith minister, shares her message, "Fear as Our Teacher." Russ White leads the congregational singing of Daniel Namod songs. A potluck takes place after the service. Everyone is invited to share in food and fellowship.

First English Lutheran Church, 1243 N. 31st St.: Christs welcoming of all and the nations birth are celebrated at the 10 a.m. worship service. After the service, Independence Day is celebrated with ice cream bars, and a womens group meeting takes place.

American Lutheran Church worshiping at Moss Mansion, 914 Division St.: An outdoor worship service takes place at 10 a.m. Bring a lawn chair. (No child care is available for this service.)

Construction work at Billings Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, 2032 Central Ave.: Billings Unitarian Universalist Fellowship is under construction. No services are planned until August.

American Lutheran Church, 5 Lewis Ave.: Family vacation Bible school is offered in three sessions July 12, 19 and 26. Each takes place from 5:30-7:30 p.m. and includes a meal, lesson, craft and games for the whole family. RSVP by emailing Rochelle Buyse at rochelle@amluth.org.

The deadline for submitting information for the Faith Guide is noon Tuesday for consideration for publication in the upcoming Saturday edition. The items should be special events open to the public and of interest to readers outside your congregation.

You may mail information to: Faith Guide; Billings Gazette newsroom; P.O. Box 36300; Billings, MT 59107. Items also may be faxed to 657-1208 or emailed to citynews@billingsgazette.com. Be sure to address faxes or emails to the Faith Guide. Or you may drop off your item at The Gazette, 401 N. Broadway; please mark it to the attention of Rachelle Lacy.

Items are used as space is available.

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Faith guide - Billings Gazette

Californias Great Red North is the opposite, a vast, rural, mountainous tract of pine forests with a political ethos that bears more resemblance to Texas than to Los Angeles. Two-thirds of the north is white, the population is shrinking and the region struggles economically, with median household incomes at $45,000, less than half that of San Francisco.

Jim Cook, former supervisor of Siskiyou County, which includes cattle ranches and the majestic slopes of Mount Shasta, calls it the forgotten part of California.

In the same state that is developing self-driving cars, theres the rugged landscape of Trinity County, where a large share of residents heat their homes with wood, plaques commemorate stagecoach routes and the county seat, Weaverville, is an old gold-mining town with a lone blinking stop-and-go traffic light.

The residents of this region argue that their political voice is drowned out in a system that has only one state senator for every million residents.

This sentiment resonates in other traditionally conservative parts of California, including large swaths of the Central Valley, which runs down the state, and it mirrors red and blue tensions felt in areas across the country. But perhaps nowhere else in California is the alienation felt more keenly than in the far north, an arresting panorama of fields filled with wildflowers and depopulated one-street towns that have never recovered from the gold rush.

People up here for a very long time have felt a sense that we dont matter, said James Gallagher, a state assemblyman for the Third District, which is a shorter drive from the forests of Mount Hood in Oregon than from the beaches of San Diego. We run this state like its one size fits all. You cant do that.

Many liberals in California describe themselves as the resistance to Mr. Trump. Residents of the north say they are the resistance to the resistance, politically invisible to the Democratic governor and Legislature. Californias strict regulations on the environment, gun control and hunting impinge on a rural lifestyle, they say, that urban politicians do not understand.

The states stringent air quality and climate change regulations may be appropriate for technology workers, Mr. Gallagher said, but they are onerous for people living in rural areas.

In the rural parts of the state we drive more miles, we drive older cars, our economy is an agriculture- and resource-based economy that relies on tractors and trucks, Mr. Gallagher said. You cant move an 80,000-pound load in an electric truck.

A recently passed gas tax, pushed through by the Democratic majority, will disproportionately hurt rural voters, he said.

Taxation and hunting are two issues northerners are quick to seize upon when criticizing laws they feel are unfairly imposed by the state. But there are also more fundamental issues related to incomes and job opportunities that split California into a two-speed economy.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, unemployment rates hover around 3 percent. In the far north, where many timber mills have shut down in recent years, unemployment is as high as 6 percent in Shasta County and 16.2 percent in Colusa County.

Despite a go-it-alone ethos, residents of the 13 counties in the northern bloc are much more likely to receive government medical assistance than those in the Bay Area. In the north, 31 percent take part in Medi-Cal, the California Medicaid program, while the Bay Area rate is 19 percent, and Californias overall figure 28 percent.

United States Representative Doug LaMalfa, a Republican representing Northern Californias First District, blames regulations that have shut down industries for the economic disparities.

Theyve devastated ag jobs, timber jobs, mining jobs with their environmental regulations, so, yes, we have a harder time sustaining the economy, and therefore theres more people that are in a poorer situation.

Because incomes are significantly lower than the state average and the region is so thinly populated, tax revenue from the far north is a fraction of what urban areas contribute. In 2014, the 13 northern counties had a combined state income tax assessment of $1 billion, compared with $4 billion from San Francisco County.

Resentment toward the rest of California has a long history here there have been numerous efforts to split the state since its founding in 1850. After the presidential election, a proposal to secede from the union, driven by liberals and known as Calexit, gained attention.

Residents here have long backed a different proposal for a separate state, one that would be carved out of Northern California and the southern reaches of Oregon. Flags of the so-called State of Jefferson, which was first proposed in the 19th century, fly on farms and ranches around the region.

Jefferson, named after the president who once envisioned establishing an independent nation in the western section of North America, is more a state of mind than a practicable proposal. Many see it as unrealistic for a region that has plenty of water and timber but perhaps not enough wealth to wean itself away from engines of the California economy.

However, two recent initiatives have channeled the deep feeling of underrepresentation.

In May, a loose coalition of northern activists and residents, including an Indian tribe and the small northern city of Fort Jones, joined forces to file a federal lawsuit arguing that Californias legislative system is unconstitutional because the Legislature has not expanded with the population.

States

Population per House member

States

Population per Senate member

California

489,310

California

978,620

Texas

183,127

Texas

886,100

Florida

168,927

Florida

506,782

New York

131,972

Ohio

351,922

Ohio

117,307

New York

319,287

States

Population per House member

States

Population per Senate member

Wyoming

9,768

South Dakota

24,528

Maine

8,803

Vermont

20,868

North Dakota

8,052

Montana

20,659

Vermont

4,174

Wyoming

19,537

New Hampshire

3,327

North Dakota

16,105

The suit, filed against the California secretary of state, Alex Padilla, who oversees election laws in California, calls for an increase in the membership of the bicameral Legislature, which since 1862 has capped the number of lawmakers at 120.

The lawsuit argues that California now has the least representative system of any state in the nation. Each State Assembly member represents nearly 500,000 people and each state senator twice that.

This arbitrary cap has created an oligarchy, the lawsuit says.

By contrast, each member of the New York State Assembly represents on average 130,000 people; in New Hampshire, its 3,330 people for each representative.

Mark Baird, one of the plaintiffs, says residents of Californias far north feel as though they are being governed by an urbanized elite.

I wake up in the morning and think, What is California going to do to me today? said Mr. Baird, a former airline pilot who owns a ranch about an hours drive from the Oregon border. In a grass valley framed by low-lying hills, Mr. Bairds pastures are filled with his small herd of buffalo and a few pens of horses and donkeys.

Mr. Baird complains of restrictions on the types of guns he can own. Its tyranny by the majority, he said. The majority should never be able to deprive the minority of their inalienable rights.

Scott Wiener, a state senator representing San Francisco, says he has sympathy for the concerns of rural voters but rejects the proposal for a larger legislative body.

When you have a state as big and diverse as California, decisions are made that we dont all agree with, he said.

The second initiative is a proposed amendment to Californias Constitution that would change the method for dividing districts of the Legislatures upper house, the Senate. Instead of being based on population as they are now, Senate seats would be tied to regions, giving a larger voice to rural areas in the same way the federal Senate does.

I am asking the people with power to give up some of their power in order to allow all the voices in the state to have a little bit more strength than they do right now, said Mr. Gallagher, the assemblyman.

Northern Californians point out that the United States House of Representatives and Senate are based on the compromise between population and geography.

What I cant get over is that a court can rule that its not good for the state but it stands up at the federal level, said Mr. LaMalfa, the congressman. We wouldnt have a union if we hadnt come up with that compromise.

Mr. LaMalfa, who lives on a farm, says Californias urban denizens think of the rural areas as their park, and deplores what he describes as trophy legislation to protect animal species.

You have idealists from the cities who say, Wouldnt it be great to reintroduce wolves to rural California? Mr. LaMalfa said. He has a half-serious counterproposal: Lets introduce some wolves into Golden Gate Park and the Santa Monica Pier.

Doris Burke contributed research.

A version of this article appears in print on July 3, 2017, on Page A9 of the New York edition with the headline: The Great Red North of California.

Go here to read the rest:

California's Far North Deplores 'Tyranny' of the Urban Majority - New York Times

April is the cruelest month, so said the famous poet TS Eliot. But one wit remarked that June marks the end of May.

Who would have expected that British Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament in the June election, which was supposed to strengthen her hand in negotiating Brexit with the European Union?

This expectation reversal was as big a shock as Brexit or Trumpism. May may have found her Ides of March in June. In sharp contrast, unlike earlier in the year when everyone was worried about France falling to populist rule under Marine le Pen, a fresh centrist candidate named Macron won, and was rewarded by a handsome legislative majority to carry out his promise to reform France.

In Bangkok this week to refresh memories of 2 July 1997, I was struck by how history seemed to rhyme in 10 year cycles. Next month would mark not only the 20th anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to China, but also the 20th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis, when the baht was devalued.

2007 also marked the 10th anniversary of the US sub-prime crisis, which together with the European debt crisis, caused a decade of low growth for the advanced economies.

Initially, investors hardly noticed the tremors from the subprime crisis. On 19 July 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a record high of 14,000. After an adjustment in August to 13,000, the index dropped below 11,000 on September 15, 2008, following the Lehman failure. It fell to a record twelve-year low of 6,547 on 9 March 2009, recording a 53.2 per cent drop over this period. Similarly, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also crossed the 20,000 milestone on 28 December 2006 and rose to the all-time peak of 31,958 on 18 October 2007.

A year later, it lost 66.6 per cent to a low of 10,676 on 27 October 2008. Ten years later, both indices have once again touched record highs, with the Hang Seng recovering past the 26,000 mark this month, whereas the Dow hit a record peak of 21,528 this week.

Because this rally is essentially tech driven, even the NASDAQ index has surpassed its 2000 tech bubble peak of 5,048 to hit a new peak of 6,305 on 2 June 2017. These market gyrations suggest that another consolidation may be reached sometime soon, except we do not know the exact timing and the trigger.

All we know is the there are many risks out there, including policy uncertainties from whether the Fed would continue to raise interest rates, the sudden re-appearance of inflation and possible geopolitical or natural disaster events.

So far, market worries about Chinas high leverage issues seem to have receded with the stabilisation of US-China relations and better performance at the growth level.

All in all, the markets have priced in so far almost all the Brexit and Trump fears and did not react too much to the recent normalisation of Fed interest rates. The stark reality is that no one knows for sure whether we are in over-priced territory or bubble zone.

The US economy appears to trundle along in reasonable shape, with unemployment numbers reaching new lows. All we do know is asset prices are at record highs, financed by historically high debt and abnormally low interest rates. In this zone of radical uncertainty, we are no longer sure that the GDP indicator reflects the true state of the economy. GDP measures the old resource-based economy well, but does not capture growth in a datadigital economy.

No economy reflects this contradiction more than China, which has shifted from being the largest assembler of the global supply chain towards a consumption and service-driven economy. Both consumption and services crossed 50 per cent of GDP levels, moving closer towards an advanced country pattern where consumption and services account for roughly 60-70 per cent or more of GDP.

If China succeeds in this historic transition, with the old resource-consuming industries, like coal, steel, energy, being phased out, even as the new internet economy trims the inefficiencies in the current Chinese distribution system, then China could break through her middle-income trap. But one recalls that South Korea achieved OECD status in December 1996, only to fall into the Asian financial crisis in 1997/8. Mexico did the same in 1994.

All countries go through growing pains, especially what Austrian economist Schumpeterian called creative destruction.

This transition creates massive winners and also losers. We see this pattern being reflected in the mixture of top Dow Jones index component companies, whereby the leading tech stocks are being priced to win, whereas the old energy, manufacturing and distribution companies are struggling to maintain their market share. Given these radical uncertainties, history is replete with the rise and fall of nations, as well as the rise and fall of companies.

It teaches humility in forcing us to think holistically on the broader trends, whilst sorting out the signals from the noise. Emerging markets in Asia today are facing what is called a middle income trap whereby they need to break through a pain barrier to rise to advanced income status.

Advanced and aging economies countries like Britain and Japan face the opposite, a high income trap where if major policy mistakes are made, a rich country may slide into stagnation and possible lower income levels. Ultimately, demographics and geography determine destiny.

Asia may face many growing pains and a complex operating environment from disruptive technology and excessive competition, including geopolitical rivalry. Western analysts disdain for Asian demagogues is now being haunted by their own demagogues.

Basically, in the midst of these complex transitions through mega-trends, there is also a governance transition. The millennial generation is rapidly taking over in terms of consumption lifestyle, innovation and governance style.

History suggests that it will not be a bloodless transition. Despite all such noise, we should do well to remind ourselves that Asia is still where there is still demographic and technological growth.

Lets see whether the next market adjustment will stall or disrupt that growth trajectory. Happy 10th and 20th anniversaries!

The writer, a former Central banker, is Distinguished Fellow, Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong.

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As we enter a zone of uncertainty... - The Statesman