Daily Archives: February 26, 2017

Finland is urging Europe to increase NATO contributions and focus more on security as the continent grapples with political turmoil from all sides, including from within.

Once the U.K. has quit the European Union, the 27 nations left behind need to double down on the blocs founding principle and give the remaining 444 million citizens what they most crave: security,Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said in an interview at his seaside residence in Helsinki on Friday. The 68-year-old is head of state of the nation that shares the EUs longest border with Russia, a country with which Finland has regular contact for security and practical reasons.

Sauli Niinisto on Friday, Feb. 24.

Photographer: Roni Rekomaa/Bloomberg

The discussion dealing with security is one of those elements where we have the possibility to ensure European citizens that Brussels can take care of your security and that would be a huge message these days, Niinisto said.

The comments come as a spate of elections threatens to deepen the EUs biggest existential crisis in its 60-year history.The bloc is also being challenged in the east by Russia and in the west by a new U.S. administration that has predicted its disintegration, just over four years after it won the Nobel Peace Prize.

As it struggles to regain the legitimacy it lost in the eyes of many of its citizens following the debt crisis, the EU now faces a populist swell that threatens to undo many of the blocs founding principles.

Niinisto said a shift away from the center in French politics in connection with elections starting in April wouldnt be a minor issue. He also stated his belief that National Front candidate Marine Le Pen wont win the presidency on May 7. She has said she wants to take the euro zones second-biggest economy out of the single currency bloc.

Niinisto warns that, after a generation of peace, theres a risk the EU has grown too complacent to the security risks it faces. Terrorist attacks in the heart of the EU -- in Paris, Brussels and Berlin -- underscore the need for safeguards.

In Europe we have been living in very peaceful decades and during that time very many countries have actually a bit forgotten the security details and policy, he said. Now its coming back.

He also says that decades of U.S. demands, reiterated by the new administration, that European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization foot their share of the security bill are understandable.

If theres an agreement, surely it should be fulfilled, he said.

Finland, which has stayed out of NATO largely due to its proximity to Russia, is building closer military ties with neighboring Sweden, which is also militarily non-aligned.

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Germany, Europes biggest economy, is working toward raising its military budget to reach NATOs target of 2 percent of gross domestic product, Chancellor Angela Merkel said this month. If Germany and France alone were to meet that target by 2024, it could add more than $40 billion to their defense spending, almost two-thirds the amount Russia spends. But European nations have so far refused to consolidate their defense industries or procurement, meaning the euros they do spend dont have as much clout as each dollar spent by the U.S. or every ruble spent by Russia.

Im sure that individuals, families around Europe, feel a bit unsafe, Niinisto said. My thinking is that maybe the main task that the union has is to make sure for everybody that they can live in peace, that they can work in peace, that they can develop their society in peace.

Niinisto said he is in contact with Moscow, Berlin and Washington -- though is put off by self-declared peace mediators not appointed to such roles. Finlands contacts with Russia are maybe a bit more frequent, thats because were close to Russia, he said. Its one of the main pillars of our security policy to keep up the dialogue.

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Facing Russia and Terrorism, a NATO Outsider Urges EU to Step Up ... - Bloomberg

Forbes

3 Changes NATO Must Make To Remain A True Alliance Forbes US Secretary of Defense James Mattis met with defense ministers from other NATO member countries in Brussels on Feb. 15. He had a message to deliver from the Trump White House. The meeting was closed, but some of Mattis's comments were released ... NATO Revamped: Why the Alliance Needs to ChangeThe National Interest Online Only 5 of 28 NATO member countries meet their defense spending requirementsAmeriForce Publishing, Inc. all 4 news articles »

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3 Changes NATO Must Make To Remain A True Alliance - Forbes

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Secretary James Mattis, at a joint press conference on Feb. 15 with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, stated: America will meet its responsibilities, but if your nations do not want to see America moderate its commitment to the alliance, each of your capitals needs to show its support for our common defense. This statement is significant, not only for its content but for its context.

In just the last week, it was reported that a Russian intelligence collection ship was operating off the east coast of the United States; Russia had deployed a new missile system to NATOs borders that may violate the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty; and Russian military aircraft had conducted high-speed passes over U.S. Navy ships operating in the Black Sea.

While an intelligence ship operating near the coast and aircraft buzzing U.S. Navy ships are not necessarily new, particularly in recent years, the deployment of a new missile system that violates a long-standing treaty is certainly something new, and further reveals Vladimir Putins strategic intentions to undermine the West and its institutions.

Within this context, it was reassuring to many at home, and certainly to our allies in Europe, that during appearances at the Munich Security Conference and the NATO ministerial respectively, Mattis and Vice President Pence reaffirmed the United Statess commitment to NATO, and also made it clear that Russia would be held accountable for its actions.

Mattis went a bit further in noting that any cooperation would be contingent on Russia first taking positive steps to meet its obligations. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in his first face-to-face meeting with Lavrov, insisted that Russia live up to the terms of the Minsk agreement and limit its involvement in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

Given the assertions about potential divisions in the Trump administration, could these statements from Mattis and Tillerson reveal some kind of good cop, bad cop routine, with the president playing the good cop in an otherwise hard-line administration?

Or is it, as our European allies worry, just a symptom of a dysfunctional administration?

Only time will tell. But what is needed now is not good cop, bad cop. What is needed is clarity of purpose and resolve.

If Winston Churchill were with us today, he may have reiterated one of his well-known statements from the WWI period: It is no use saying, 'We are doing our best.' You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary. Churchills point is as insightful today as it was in his time.

Sen. John McCainJohn McCainFather of slain Navy SEAL wants investigation A stronger NATO for a safer world Drug importation won't save dollars or lives MORE (R-Ariz.) clearly took on that mantle of leadership and resolve in his speech at the Munich conference, closely echoing Churchills words: The unprecedented period of security and prosperity that we have enjoyed for the past seven decades did not happen by accident. It happened not only because of the appeal of our values, but because we backed them with our power and persevered in their defense. Our predecessors did not believe in the end of history or that it bends, inevitably, toward justice. That is up to us. That requires our persistent, painstaking effort.

Given the level of effort that the United States has put into reinvigorating its involvement in European security, it is understandable that the president and the American people expect our allies to meet their treaty requirements. This is nothing new; the last three administrations have pushed our NATO allies to step up their funding for defense. However, the events of today require a renewed and unambiguous call for NATO member countries to meet their obligations.

From our time on Capitol Hill and in various other meetings and conferences, we have met with U.S. and allied military commanders. There is a clear commitment among the uniformed services of our alliance partners to increase joint training and improve our force structure in Europe. What is needed now is a political commitment to providing the resources required to enable that cooperation.

The Obama administration took some small steps in that direction, though Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the commander of U.S. Army Forces in Europe, must be given a great deal of credit. He seized the initiative and pushed for more forward deployed U.S. equipment and personnel in Europe. Hodges's leadership is commendable, but the full commitment to the alliance, the security of Europe, and Western interests cannot rest with one generals ingenuity and sheer will.

Nor can any of this be protected with only a portion of the NATO alliance meeting their full commitment. In the words of the NATO secretary-general: The challenges we face are the most complex and demanding in a generation. Neither Europe nor North America can tackle them alone. A strong NATO is good for Europe, a strong Europe is good for North America.

The events of today require a renewed and unambiguous call for NATO member countries to meet their obligations. However, building the public awareness and the political will to meet those obligations is unlikely to be accomplished solely through the holding of joint press conferences on the margins of a ministerial meetings or international conferences. The leaders of NATO, European thought leaders, influencers and activists must commit to visiting the member states who are not currently meeting the funding threshold and taking the case to the people.

This outreach should be accompanied by a media campaign that takes advantage of the various social networks to bring a new generation of supports to the NATO cause. The message must be clear and unequivocal: The threats of the past are re-emerging, the threat of terrorism grows with each passing day, and we need to be more, not less, involved in the conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East so that we can meet the threat of terrorism before it reaches the shores of Europe or North America. No one country, no matter how powerful, can protect us.

We, in the West, must heed the words of Churchill, in another time and McCain, in our time and be in this together.

Joseph Whited is the former Intelligence Lead for the House Armed Services Committee. He spent over 18 years serving in the intelligence community.

Alex Gallo is senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and served as a professional staff member on the House Armed Services Committee.

The views of contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.

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A stronger NATO for a safer world - The Hill (blog)

An Alternative to NATO Expansion That Won't Antagonize Russia Wall Street Journal (subscription) Lost in the brouhaha over whether President Trump and his team are too friendly toward Russian President Vladimir Putin is a more important question. If the Trump administration is serious about its worthy goal of improving U.S. relations with Russia ... and more »

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An Alternative to NATO Expansion That Won't Antagonize Russia - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

Zoran Zaev, leader of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), greets supporters in front of the government building after parliamentary elections in Skopje on December 11, 2016 | Robert Atanasovski/AFP via Getty Images

The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia said it has secured a coalition.

By David M. Herszenhorn

2/27/17, 2:09 AM CET

The European Commission and NATO urged the president of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Gjorge Ivanov, Sunday to abide by the countrys constitution and allow the formation of an opposition-led government, as the tiny Balkan country faced a crucial test of democratic norms.

Ivanovs party, VMRO-DPMNE, has controlled the government since 2006 and has largely dominated the countrys politics since 1990. But while thecenter-right VMRO-DPMNE finished first in parliamentary elections in December, winning51 seats, it failed to form a government, which requires a coalition of at least 61 MPs.

TheSocial Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), which finished second in the elections with 49 seats, says it has secured a coalition and is demanding a mandate from Ivanov to form a government and install the partysleader, Zoran Zaev, as prime minister.

Zaev said he had clinched the needed votes byforging a deal withthe countrys largest Albanian party, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), and smaller Albanian parties.

After nearly 11 years of living under a regime, we have the chance to form a new democratic government of Macedonia, Zaev said in a statement, according to the Macedonian Information Agency, the official news service. Ivanvov has said he would give a mandate to form a government to a coalition with 61 votes, provided it would not violate the unitary character of Macedonia.

Zaevs deal apparently includes support for a law that would give Albanian status as an official language, a move that could give Ivanov a basis for trying to block the new government.

In what appeared to be a last-ditch power play, Nikola Gruevski, the leader of VMRO-DPMNE, issued a statement late Sunday night offering to back a Zaev-led government, but only if Zaev abandoned the language law and other proposals Gruevski insisted would splinter the country along ethnic lines.

If Zaev insists so badly to be prime minister, we will let him implement his program so long as he doesnt attack the state and national interests, Gruevski said, according to the MIA news service.

In an angry statement that bordered on a rant, Gruevski offered to be arrested, imprisoned, harassed, if needed to protect the country, and alleged that foreign meddlers including an unnamed foreign ambassador and George Soros, the billionaire civil-society activist, were trying to weaken Macedonia and have Zaev enthroned as prime minister.

In a statement on Sunday, Johannes Hahn, the European commissioner for neighborhood policy and enlargement negotiations, urgedIvanov to allow the formation of the SDSM-led government.

As enough signatures of MPs have been collected, Hahn said, We now expect the president to give the mandate to form the next government to the candidate from the parties which have the majority in the assembly, in line with the constitution.

In a pointed warning, Hahn continued, Change in democratic societies is natural and should be embraced, whenit is a result of credible elections. Accepting and respecting the election result and the right of leaders to try to form a government is a sign of a mature democracy. Obstructing and undermining such efforts has no place in a democratic process.

He added, We call on all relevant actors, including the president and the parliament, to act fully in line with the constitutions letter and spirit and in a responsible manner, to enable a swift formation of a government that will address overdue reforms.

In astatement, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that the December parliamentary elections were well-administered and also called for Ivanov to let the process move forward.

Following one attempt to form a government, it has been announced that, in line with the requirement specified by the president, enough MPs signatures have now been collected, Stoltenberg said. I look to the authorities in Skopje to fulfill the next step in the democratic process. I call on all parties to exercise restraint in statements and actions, and take decisions for the benefit of all citizens.

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EU, NATO urge Macedonian leader to allow new government - POLITICO.eu

At the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union had so many hundreds of deadly submarines at sea that Western war planners willing to try almost any possible countermeasure, however goofy sounding.

Some seemingly crazy ideas proved actually worthwhile, such as the underwater Sound Surveillance Systema vast chain of seafloor microphones that patiently listened for Soviet subs and remains in use today.

Other less elegant anti-submarine tools survive only as anecdotes. In his book Hunter Killers, naval writer Iain Ballantyne recalls one of the zanier ideasair-dropped floppy-magnets meant to foul up Soviet undersea boats, making them noisier and easier to detect.

From the late 1940s on, captured German technology boosted Soviet postwar submarine design. Soviet shipyards delivered subs good enoughand numerous enoughto pose a huge danger to Western shipping.

By the time of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the USSR controlled the largest submarine force in the worldsome 300 diesel-electric submarines and a handful of nuclear-propelled models. NATO navies couldnt keep up. We simply do not have enough forces, Vice Adm. R.M. Smeeton stated.

NATO war planners feared only nuclear escalation could check the Soviet submarine wolf packsthat is, atomic strikes on sub bases along the Russian coast.

But the nuclear solution was worse than the problem. We can take steps to make sure the enemy is fully aware of where his course of action is leading him without nuclear weapons, Smeeton said, but we cannot go to war that way.

Desperate planners sought ways of making Soviet subs easier to hunt. Any technology that could speed up an undersea search was worth considering. A submarines best defense is of course stealth, remaining quiet and undetected in the ocean deep, Ballantyne notes. Something that could rob the Soviets of that cloak of silence must have seemed irresistible and, at least initially, a stroke of genius.

A Canadian scientist figured some kind of sticky undersea noisemaker would make a Soviet sub more detectable. He designed a simple hinged cluster of magnets that could attach to a submarines metal hull.

Movement would cause the flopping magnets to bang against the hull like a loose screen door, giving away the subs location to anyone listening. The simple devices would take time and effort to remove, thus also impairing the Soviet undersea fleets readiness.

At least that was the idea.

GodawfulRacket:

In late 1962, the British Admiralty dispatched the A-class diesel submarine HMS Auriga to Nova Scotia for joint anti-submarine training with the Canadian navy. The British were helping Canada establish a submarine force, s0 Royal Navy subs routinely exercised with Canadian vessels.

Auriga had just returned to the submarine base at Faslane, Scotland after a combat patrol as part of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Other subs of the joint Canadian-British Submarine Squadron Six at Halifax had seen action during the Crisis.

The 1945-vintage Auriga spent much of her time in Nova Scotia simulating Soviet diesel subs during hazardous under-ice ASW practice with U.S. and Canadian forces. During a typical three-week exercise, Auriga would be subject to the attentions of surface vessels, aircraft and other subs, including the U.S. Navys new nuke boats.

During one open-ocean exercise, Auriga was given the floppy-magnet treatment. A Canadian patrol plane flew over Aurigas submerged position and dropped a full load of the widgets into the sea.

As weird as it sounded, the magnet concept proved a resounding success. Enough magnets fell on or near Aurigas hull to stick and flop. Banging and clanking with a godawful racket, the magnets gave sonar operators tracking the sub a field day. Then the trouble started.

As Auriga surfaced at the end of the exercise, the magnets made their way into holes and slots in the subs outer hull designed to let water flow. They basically slid down the hull, Ballantyne says of the magnets, and remained firmly fixed inside the casing, on top of the ballast tanks, in various nooks and crannies.

The floppy-magnets couldnt be removed at sea. In fact, they couldnt be removed at all until the submarine dry-docked back in Halifax weeks later.

In the meantime, one of Her Majesty's submarines was about as stealthy as a mariachi band. No fighting, no training, no nothing until all those floppy little magnets were dug out of her skin at a cost of time, money and frustration.

The magnets worked on the Soviets with the same maddening results. The crews of several Foxtrots were driven bonkers by the noise and returned to port rather than complete their cruises.

Now, the Soviet navy could afford to furlough a sub or two, but NATO could not. Anti-submarine crews couldnt practice with floppy-magnets attached to their exercise targets.

The floppy-magnets worked exactly as intended, but they were simply too messy to train with to be practical on a large scale. It seems NATO deployed them only a few times.

The submarine-fouling floppy-magnet turned out to be, well, a flop.

This first appeared in WarIsBoring here.

Image: Creative Commons.

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NATO's Crazy Plan to Find Russian Submarines Was a Total 'Flop' - The National Interest Online (blog)