Daily Archives: February 17, 2017

Published: February 16, 2017 | By Nick Hanson-James

Zimbabwe is facing an imminent crisis that will require an international humanitarian response in the near to medium-term future, with appropriate security measures for humanitarian workers. The dire economic situation precipitated, according to economists, by disastrous indigenisation policies that have choked foreign investment, the exhaustion of Foreign Exchange reserves and a collapse in commodity prices, combined with an estimated 80% unemployment rate, the worst drought in 35 years and outbreaks of communicable diseases paint a bleak future for Zimbabweans. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) predicts that 4.4 million Zimbabweans may not have enough food to eat this year. Humanitarian assistance will be the only hope for millions but will involve considerable operational difficulties.

Security

Robert Mugabe, President since 1985, is now 93 and in failing health. With no nominated successor, political jostling and infighting have broken out in his ZANU-PF party ahead of the presidential elections planned for 2018. A familiar pattern of ZANU buying votes with gifts of land and food to the party faithful has started, with a ban on demonstrations in Harare. Of greater concern, the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) is divided; since independence, the ZNA has been the primary agent to maintain order and civil stability. As its grip on power splits, the prospect of escalating civil disturbances and a potential military coup become more likely.

There are signs of change: social media campaigns have highlighted Zimbabweans dissatisfaction with the government, while Church groups have voiced their concerns; NGO contact with such groups is likely to come under scrutiny, so discretion should be exercised. Government crackdowns are underway, and the detention and mistreatment of activists have increased 50% this year. A social media law has been passed that allows the state to seize smartphones, laptops or other devices that allow Zimbabweans to communicate. NGOs in Zimbabwe must be aware that communications may be monitored, and IT equipment may attract attention from the authorities. Informers report any social media activity deemed anti-ZANU to the government. NGOs should make contingency plans for the detention of staff, but should also prepare for a rapid deterioration in national security. NGO workers in Zimbabwe have also reported that South African border guards will now only issue five day stays for travellers from Zimbabwe, rather than official visas, and furthermore, long delays at border crossings are the norm. This should be factored into any plans relating to evacuation by road.

Health

The World Health Organisation (WHO) stated in 1985 that Zimbabwes health system was amongst the best in the developing world. 30 years later, healthcare in Zimbabwe has broken down. Healthcare facilities are running below 30% of their capability, with chronic shortages of drugs and medical staff. The prohibitive price of medicines from private suppliers means that: 64% of Zimbabweans are unable to access healthcare and curable ailments are often fatal. Accessing the cash to pay for drugs is difficult.

Running water is only available in urban areas for one or two days per week; families have taken to storing 20 and 50 litres of uncovered containers of water, increasing the risk of water- and mosquito-borne diseases in towns. Authorities have issued typhoid and cholera alerts. Experts predict that with the arrival of the rainy season this situation will worsen, as drinking water becomes contaminated. In 2008, 100,000 Zimbabweans were affected by an outbreak of cholera with 4,000 recorded deaths; if this reoccurs, the crippled healthcare system will collapse.

Organisations intending to work in Zimbabwe should ensure that they have supplies of medicines at their disposal, as these will be hard to access in-country. These should include analgesics, water purification tablets, antibiotics and rehydration kits. With an estimated 15% HIV infection rate, PEP kits should be kept for use both by international and local staff. Plans for medical evacuation to South Africa should be made for more serious illnesses.

Finance

Withdrawing money from banks involves queuing for several days (people sleep on the streets to save their places), and when banks do hold cash, withdrawals are strictly rationed to US$ 200 per day for organisations and US$ 50 per day for individuals. Informants have reported the theft of forex directly from their organisations accounts by the authorities. To mitigate this, exact amounts of forex to cover specific costs should be made from overseas, and the money transferred to the recipients as quickly as possible. In such economic conditions, organisations have strengthened their standard operating procedures (SOPs) for handling cash, due to the added risks of crime.

With the price of commodities falling in international markets, the government finds itself backed into a corner. ZANU abandoned the Zim$ for the US$ in 2009 to counter the effects of hyperinflation. However, Foreign Exchange reserves have been exhausted paying the salaries of civil servants and the security forces; in July the government was unable to pay employees and a general strike paralysed the country. In November 2016, the government issued Bond Notes to replace the foreign currency in everyday transactions. This has already sparked further demonstrations and social unrest given that the effects of hyperinflation are still fresh in the populations memories. Journalists are already reporting a rise in extra-judicial detentions and the torture of detainees.

Police are now reduced to extorting money from drivers at roadblocks by imposing fines to buy food or to contribute towards the payment of their colleagues salaries. Organisations have advised that to avoid fines being imposed at roadblocks, ensure that vehicles are fully serviced and compliant with traffic regulations (e.g. carrying required equipment). While this may work in some instances, organisations will need to discuss their policy towards corruption and put the relevant SOPs in place.

Fuel and Logistics

The situation is rapidly deteriorating and in February 2016 the government declared a national state of disaster. The cost of food is rising due to the drought while fuel supplies are dwindling and shortages of petrol make transport difficult. NGOs have found that purchasing fuel coupons that guarantee access to reserved supplies is the only way to guarantee to be able to operate. These coupons are also used as an unofficial second currency as foreign exchange bank notes become scarcer. Humanitarians operating in Zimbabwe should be aware of the logistical challenges posed by roadblocks and fuel shortages that make operating in more inaccessible areas such as Matabele Land (where much humanitarian activity is concentrated), much more difficult. Aid workers should be aware of the logistical limitations when working in remote areas and factor this into their planning.

Diaspora

Since 2008, an estimated 5,000 Zimbabweans have left the country each day. There are approximately four million Zimbabweans living abroad, most illegally in surrounding countries where their presence is creating socio-economic pressures on, and tensions with, local communities. The majority work in the informal, low-wage sector. Their financial remittances are low and have had little effect in bolstering Zimbabwes economy while pressuring the economies of its neighbours. Host governments have now started to expel Zimbabwean migrants. If large numbers of migrants return to a country unable to support them, then the stage appears to be set for a humanitarian crisis with the potential to destabilise both Zimbabwe and its neighbours. At the moment, there is no incentive for Zimbabwean diaspora to return to Zimbabwe. However, if forced repatriations increase, then the potential for social instability, combined with the increased pressure on limited resources, may well lead to civil disturbance in many areas of the country. This should be factored into any evacuation or crisis response plans.

Zimbabwes position appears grim. Zimbabwe has become internationally isolated due to its internal and external policies and has burnt its bridges with agencies such as the International Monetary Fund, that could have offered possible lifelines. The humanitarian community should prepare to intervene and operate should Zimbabwes fragile systems finally collapse, in what will be a challenging and difficult environment to operate in.

Sources and Further Reading

Why Zimbabweans are spending the night outside banks, BBC, 9 November 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-37910072

Zimbabwes Government Prepares to Defend Itself, Stratfor, 4 August 2016, https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/zimbabwes-government-prepares-d...

No cash, no cure: Zimbabwes hospitals buckle amid economic crisis, The Guardian, 14 July 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/14/no-cash-no-cure-zimbabwes-...

Zimbabweans Facing Difficulties in Accessing Health Care, Voice of America, 17 May 2016, http://www.voazimbabwe.com/a/zimbabwe-access-to-healthcare/3334353.html

Interviews with key informants

Zimbabwe, MSF, undated, http://www.msf.org/en/where-we-work/zimbabwe

Zimbabwe, SABC, undated, http://www.sabc.co.za/news/tag/Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe, International Rescue Committee, undated, https://www.rescue.org/country/zimbabwe

The Zimbabwean, undated, http://thezimbabwean.co

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Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb

Looming Black Swans Could Hurt 2017 Stock Market Forecast

The current social and political conditions could lead the world economy to disaster. The financial markets have never been more susceptible to disruptive events. Yet the stock market forecast for 2017 has not taken the biggest risk into account.

This is nobodys fault, because no stock market forecast can possibly foresee the biggest risk. Most everybody can make a correct market prediction, even without knowing a thing about a stock, but nobody can predict a black swan event. The very nature of a black swan is to elude everyone, including Nostradamus himself.

The black swan theory, or the theory of black swan events, is a metaphor. Its a term to describe the concept that a heavy-impact event comes as a surprise to the observer. Once that happened, the event is rationalized in retrospect. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the weaknesses of such things as a stock market outlook or a stock market forecast.

High-impact events such as a black swan are not just rare and difficult, if not impossible, to predict. They play a disproportionate role compared to normal expectations in the context of history, science, technology and finance. A black swan event can only be recognized after the fact.

Heres what this means for where the stock market is headed. Geopolitics is key. Thus, it is important to increase the awareness of firms operating in international markets today, even more than in the past.

In 2017, the Venezuelan default and the growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran could be traumatic, leading to a potential collapse of oil prices and another war in the Middle East. Raw materials could be subject to extreme fluctuations in 2017.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the risk of a default in Venezuela may push up oil prices, possibly to unsustainable levels for emerging economies. Further, the situation in Ukraine and Russia is even more difficult to predict now.

During the Barack Obama presidential administration, it was clear that Washington sided with Ukraine, but President Donald Trump wants to improve ties to Moscow. That could encourage the latter to turn the situation back in its favor. Such tensions could boost the prices of industrial metals, given the strong role both countries have in mining.

Barclays Bank PLC has come up with a chart outlining some of the potential black swan events, as summarized below. Note, the threat type is what is affected by the potential black swan event. So, in the case of oil, its price would go up if the U.S. and Iran clash. The black swan in that case would be the spark that leads to the clash.

There is no way to assess the probability of such periodic rare events using scientific methods. By definition, a black swan event has a very low probability of occurring. Iteludes mathematics and statistics. Thus, an airplane crashing into the World Trade Center on September 1, 2001 was a black swan event.

Arguably, the discovery of how to make fire was a black swan, as was the big bang of the Big Bang Theory. In the purely financial context, black swans are rare. The 2007/2008 financial crisis was not a black swan, for example. It was all too predictable to those who had access to the information, or those willing to consider it.

Yet, most investors who work 40 hours a week have little time to check every detail that could affect their portfolios and retirement savings. To themthat is, to most peoplethe 2008 subprime crash certainly had the impact of a black swan. By stretching or altering the definition of black swan, we can analyze them to see where is the stock market headed.

A true black swan will make mincemeat of any stock market prediction. But the more liberally defined black swan event, described above as a heavy-impact event, can be very useful.

It turns out that 2017 will be a year dense with such heavy-impact events.

The first of these foreseeable black swans concerns the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). It took years to negotiate and achieve, but it also took just one signature from Donald Trump to terminate the U.S.s participation. That was no black swan, however. Trump said he would scrap the deal during the election campaign.

The scrapping of the TPP will have consequences; it could spark a cascading chain of high-impact events. Given the global impact of these events, they will affect the stock markets. They can also produce a black swan, but we can only examine and predict events as the conclusion of ongoing processes.

To be clear, the end of the TPP is a hugedeal. Major investment banks like Goldman SachsGroup Inc (NYSE:GS)and the World Economic Forum (WEF)which just met at Davos a few weeks agofeared this. The reason for their worry is that, at the stroke of a pen, Trump has inaugurated a new era of protectionism.

Protectionism will be a major threat to the world economy in 2017. The risk that Trump would ditch the TPP agreement was well known months before the U.S. election. The TPP is such a threat because it compounds the effects of the Brexit which, while not a black swan per se, are unclear. Its not even clear whether the U.K. will go along with it.

The TPP and Brexit are mere reflections of the protectionist trend that should concern all investors. They reflect the fact that populist movements are strengthening. Yet, all the while, the migration crisis continues and the risk that many fear is another series of terrorist attacks. Again, these are not black swans in themselves, but they provide the basis for one.

Meanwhile in Asia, there is another known risk that could produce predictable and unpredictablehence black swanrepercussions. Chinas economy could implode because of unsustainable levels of debt. The Chinese debt bomb could slow Chinas economy and become an obstacle to global economic growth.

The geopolitical realm has within it the seeds of many risks for humanity in 2017. These include terrorist attacks and the inter-state conflicts resulting from the rising problems of regional and global ungovernability. International institutions will need to negotiate and work together to solve geopolitical and economic problems in 2017.

The geopolitical litany of risks with black swan potential is unprecedented in 2017. The closest period like this that comes to mind is World War 1. The worlds superpowers were experiencing a protectionist-fueled suspicion of each other. Meanwhile, rapidly changing technology on one hand and rapidly advancing revolutionary social movements on the other mixed to create economic and political TNT.

The black swan component that nobody could have predicted was a young man in Serbia called Gavrilo Princip. He murdered the archduke Franz Ferdinand, sending the spark that set off the TNT. That event on June 28, 1914 was unpredictable, and its timing and context produced World War 1, the risks of which had become rather obvious in the first decade of the 20th century.

That odd sensation that many investors get every day now reflects a similar scenario today. The next Black Swan event might be that one that sparks World War 3.

In 2016, Russia, South Africa and many other countries have withdrawn from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Meanwhile, China has refused to accept the ICCs verdict on the territories in the South China Sea.

Trump has threatened to terminate the contract with Iran. Even if an agreement is reached over Syria and ISIS is defeated, the sentiment that produced the latter movement and the tensions in Syria remains. It will not simply vaporize.

ISIS might be gone, but its ideology has the advantage that anyone can adopt it. The mixture of dissent and mistrust that is brewing among the world powers has already paralyzed the United Nations (UN).

Meanwhile, the European Union (EU), which was formed after World War 2to act as a guarantee that no such war could break out again, has began to disintegrate.

Among the factors contributing to geopolitical tension is a deficit of trust. Countries accuse each other of interfering in their internal affairs. Look no further than the allegations from the U.S. Democratic Party that Russia interfered in the November presidential election to ensure that Trump would win.

In effect, nobody has proven that Russia was behind the WikiLeaks release of the John Podesta e-mails. But the media, many Americans, and others around the world have blamed Russia, fueling the mistrust among nuclear superpowers. In such an atmosphere, any number of events could turn out to be black swans for the next major international conflict.

Black swan events would only reveal themselves in retrospect after analysis of the one cause that sparked it. That is, if any analysts live to study it. Such black swans may result from the socio-economic risks like mass migration, the critical increase in inequality, and the polarization of society along ethnic, religious and cultural factors that could seriously complicate the situation in 2017.

The results of the U.K. Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidential election have shown that such factors seriously affect the situations in different countries. Then there is an escalating arms race involving the United States, Russia and, now China.

The risk of a black swan in the arms race context could certainly play on the explosive geopolitical context. The current arms race involves military robotics and artificial intelligence (AI). Drones are merely an early generation of the military-technological evolution.

Robot soldiers are no longer the figment of a science-fiction writers imagination. In 2017, we are already bombarded by technological risks. Consider cyberattacks alone. These can take the form of fraud and data theft, defects in software that can cause a failure in the energy sector (nuclear reactor meltdown), transport, communications, etc.

Moreover, the rapid development of new technologies and robotics will make human labor increasingly obsolete. The fact that this coincides with an ever-growing population presents huge risks for unemployment and social instability. Therefore, it is the perfect storm for massive social unrest.

On top of that are otherrisks, such as natural disasters. These are virtually impossible to avoid. For all other risks, we can study processes and developments, trying to make sense of them. At best, we can predict what systems could be affected by a black swan event, although nobody knows what form this will take.

The very unpredictability of black swans is the stuff of intense philosophical debate. The unexpected is what moves the world forward (or backward). The advent of the Internet was a black swan. Designed as a military communications and security tool, nobody could have foreseen the role it has come to play in modern life and business.

Life rarely works exactly as you plan it. We must learn to live with uncertainties and deal with the unexpected. Black swans are reminders that, despite the combination of technological wonders, forecasting tools, and organizational devices, we are not able to defeat nature and chaos.

Therefore, its impossible to have an accurate stock market forecast based on black swans. But we can still analyze and pay attention to the kinds of risks from where black swans might arise, or where they may have an impact.

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Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market Forecast - Lombardi Letter