Daily Archives: February 6, 2017

Bitcoin managed to touch the 5th arc pair of resistance on the 2-hour chart setup. This generated a sell signal.Since then it managed to re-test the arc and was rejected.

The long-term trend is still up. But the short-term trend is likely going to be down. Looking at this bull setup, a reasonable target is the 12 Gann angle at ~ 940. Lets look at a bear setup from the swing high of $1050 (Kraken):I have overlaid the bear setup on top of the bull setup and have labelled the intersection of the 5th arc pair of each setup. There are arrows at each point that stand out as likely targets in the event that a correction gathers force here.

However, while we were issued a sell signal at the touching of the 5th arc at $1050, we have not had another sell signal since then. When/if we see a close below the 1st arc (blue) and/or a close below the 1st square ($1002), we will have another sell signal.

Conversely, when/if price gets through the 5th arc on the bull setup (labelled), we will have a buy signal.

As I continue to believe that a 3rd wave of the correction that began Jan 4th must complete before the next leg of the great rally of 2017 can begin in earnest, I harbor a suspicion that prices will get to the lower end of the range before a buy signal is generated.

However, I am not one to argue with the markets. If price clears the 5th arc pair shown above, and a buy signal is generated sooner rather than later, I will happily give up my bearish thinking

Happy trading!

Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Image from Shutterstock.

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Bitcoin Short-Term Trend Seems to Be Down - CryptoCoinsNews

One factor that's going to help Bitcoin is the fact that government paper looks ever more shaky.

Bitcoin had a great 2016, becoming the worlds top performing currency. However, 2017 so far has been a rollercoaster ride 20% up, then 35% down, then bouncing back. So what does this year hold? Will Bitcoin go through the roof, or hit the floor?

One factor thats going to help Bitcoin is the fact that government paper looks ever more shaky. Demonetisation in India and Venezuela told people their bank notes were effectively worthless making Bitcoin, which doesnt depend on any individual government, look a better bet. Higher inflation could also lead to more people looking at Bitcoin as an alternative, and more businesses taking Bitcoin as a payment method. There are forecasts that Japan will see as many as 20,000 merchants accepting Bitcoin as payment by the end of the year; even a traditional British pub, the White Lion in Norwich, is taking it. Thats all good for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Even traditional banks might become involved in Bitcoin. A former Barclays CEO, Antony Jenkins, has now joined the board of Bitcoin wallet provider Blockchain, so at least one mainstream banker gets it.

Bitcoin seems to do well when theres a lot of macroeconomic and political uncertainty. If all your savings are in dollars, and Trumponomics ends up sending the dollar through the floor, youre going to feel the pinch, unless youve been trading currencies at CMC Markets or have plenty of foreign investments in your portfolio. Look at the other possibility Trumps fiscal policies lead to higher inflation, the dollar soars; that still works in Bitcoins favour as investors all over Europe and Asia will be looking for a secure investment while their currencies plunge. Basically, currency volatility is good news for Bitcoin.

Another factor that could help Bitcoin is a feeling that equity markets are looking overstretched. A sector rotation towards value stocks shows that professional investors are now avoiding stocks trading on high multiples, and any reverse in the economic figures could set off a flash crash. Theres some evidence that nervous investors are looking at Bitcoin as an alternative investment, and that could push the price higher.

Bitcoin could actually become the new gold the one asset thats inversely correlated to the markets. In other words, its the way you hedge your bets when everything else looks gloomy, its the asset you tuck away to see you through the worst. Will money managers begin to advise their clients to look seriously at Bitcoin? The smart ones are probably doing so already, although they may be doing so informally rather than as a structured part of the portfolio.

The only thing that could derail Bitcoin is government intervention. Governments are already making war on cash could they close Bitcoin down? It seems more likely that theyll reach some kind of co-existence with the currency, regulating trading, perhaps, but not outlawing it. In any case, government attempts to censor and filter the Internet have generally not been successful, so theres no reason to think theyll have the technology to be able to close Bitcoin down completely.

In fact, experts suggest some central banks may want to test their own digital fiat currencies in other words trying to beat Bitcoin at its own game. That can only give digital currencies more credibility.

The elephant in the room, though, is the simple fact that when Bitcoin started, a minority of us had access to it. Now it seems pretty much everyone, even in developing countries, has a mobile, and most mobiles are fairly smart. Mobile payment applications are making great strides, particularly in places like Africa where existing financial infrastructure is poor. Couple increased smartphone penetration with the functionality and robustness of blockchain technology, and you have exactly the environment needed to make Bitcoin really take off.

So where could Bitcoin end up in terms of price? At the moment its trading at around $970, but most followers of the currency expect it to get to at least $1,500 this year, well above the previous high of $1,150 that it hit in 2013 before the Mt Gox collapse pushed the market into reverse. Some forecasts are even higher, with one brave analyst suggesting Bitcoin could hit $3,000.

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How High Could Bitcoin Go in 2017? - newsBTC

The world of bitcoin is filled with active developers and others figures who play a prominent role in the future of thetechnology. It is difficult to measure who is the most active developer other than by looking at the commits made on GitHub. A lot has changed over the past seven and a half years, and there are a lot more developments on the horizon, that much is certain.

One of the more colorful figures in the bitcoin ecosystem goes by the nickname Luke-jr. He is not afraid to share some controversial thoughts on the bitcoin ecosystem and what the future should hold. Not all of this opinions are welcomed with open arms, though, yet a good discussion on Reddit can go a long way every now and then. Over the past few years, Luke-jr made over 270 commits to the bitcoin repository, making him an active contributorto the development of this popular cryptocurrency.

Under the theuni username, Cory Fields is quickly becoming an active contributor to the development of bitcoin as of late. He is also working on quite a few other things, including the popular XBMC project. With 485 commits made to Bitcoin since early 2014, Fields is quite the busy bee for sure. His expertise in C, C++, and Shell are put to good use, that much is certain.

The name Pieter Wuille will ring a bell for most cryptocurrency enthusiasts, as he is also the co-founder of Blockstream. Wuille is contributing a lot of his time and effort to bitcoin development since early 2012. In fact, he is one of the oldest bitcoin development contributors to be found today. Although not everyone may agree with all of his ideas related to bitcoin, one can only respect the active work he has put into developing bitcoin and its features so far.

Although Gavin Andresen has a lot less bitcoin development commits than both Corey Fields and Pieter Wuille, he is one of the more public figures in the world of cryptocurrency. Gavin likes to share his opinions with the world in his hopes of sparking new ideas and discussions revolving around bitcoin.

Moreover, Gavin can often be found as a speaker during popular Bitcoin and blockchain events. He has a way of explaining complicated concepts in a way most people can understand, regardless of their tech-savviness. Even though he has only made 485 commits on bitcoin since 2010, he has been a consistent contributor and a valuable addition to the global team of developers.

When it comes to the number of active commits made to bitcoin, no one has put in more time and effort than Wladimir J. van der Laan. With over 1,407 commits since 2011, it is evident he has been a keen supporter of bitcoin as a whole. Additionally, he keeps contributing in a very active manner as time progresses, which is good to see. Although Wladimir is not the most public bitcoin figure by any means, his work does commendrespect.

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Top 5 Bitcoin Developers - The Merkle

Staying up-to-date about all things bitcoin can be quite challenging these days. Different communities exist all over the Internet, each of which aims to provide the latest news and insights to the masses. Cryptocurrency continues to baffle the mind of many people, here are some excellent starting points to become a part of the bitcoin community.

When it comes to using social media for bitcoin news and information, a lot of people tend to overlook Google+. Although Googles social network is far less popular than Facebook or LinkedIn, it has a vibrant bitcoin community. The largest cryptocurrency group on Google+ consists of several thousand members and continues to grow every single day.

It comes as no surprise Facebook is home to many bitcoin enthusiasts as well. Although it is not easy to find the best group, there are quite a few to choose from. Do keep in mind some of these groups may suffer from affiliate-oriented posts every now and then, although moderators do what they can to keep spam to a bare minimum.

One of the any cryptocurrency-related forums in existence today is called Cryptocointalk. Albeit it is less so popular than Bitcointalk, CCT is quite informative and contains quite a few educative threads. Moreover, there is an open discussion related to altcoins, which can be of use to particular cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Their news section is also worth checking out, as it features new content every day.

The go-to place for any bitcoin discussion is Bitcointalk, the infamous messaging board which is home to tens of those of enthusiasts. Ranging from news to technical discussions and mining support to altcoins, it is hard to think of any resource that cant be found there. People interested in spending Bitcoin may want to check out the marketplace section, although one always needs to tread carefully when dealing with unknown people on the internet.

Reddit is the front page of the Internet and has not one, but two major bitcoin communities. On the one hand, there is /r/Bitcoin, where most of the news, technical discussions and political debates can be found. Some discussions are not allowed though, such as talking about altcoins or highly controversial topics.

A result of this strict regulation of the primary bitcoin subreddit caused a second community to be created a few years ago. In the /r/BTC subreddit, there is a lot of talk about Bitcoin Unlimited and blockchain news. Do not be mistaken in thinking there is no strict rule in /r/BTC either, as political debates often turn into heated discussions rather quickly.

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Top 5 Bitcoin Communities - The Merkle

The Dutch government is trying to make it easier to launch a criminal investigation against persons who use bitcoin to launder money from illegal activities, according to Financieele Dagblad, a Dutch newspaper.

Dutch investigators have discovered criminals are shielding activities using bitcoin mixers. A bitcoin mixer is a grab bag with bitcoins of several owners. The bitcoins paid out from the bitcoin mixer cannot be traced back to the original owner.

The FIOD, the investigative arm of the Dutch tax authority, wishes to have the bitcoin mixers recognized as money laundering. By recognizing this activity as money laundering, investigators can take action against a suspect without having to demonstrate a reasonable suspicion of a crime.

Rolf Van Wegberg, of the knowledge institute TNO, which is investigating money laundering through bitcoin, said he researched a handful of bitcoin mixers, with names like Onion Wallet and BitcoinBoost. He said the mixers are reviewed on the darknetby users.

Van Wegberg found that at low-rated mixers, his money was lost. On highly-rated mixers, he received his bitcoins back and was able to convert them into euros and send them to online payment services like PayPal and Western Union.

Laundering costs often exceed 40%, but with the bitcoin mixer, it was only about 15%.

The use of the mixer alone will be sufficient to launch a case against a trader. A criminal can be prosecuted for money laundering more easily than for conducting a criminal transaction in which bitcoins are earned.

Van Wegberg said there can be legitimate reasons for using a mixer. If you are a foreign journalist in Myanmar getting your salary from a foreign medium, the mixerwill hide the fact that the money is coming from a foreign media company.

The FIOD has been able to identify darknetcriminal traffickers and parties that exchange bitcoin for euros.

In one case, a 24-year-old from Amsterdam and a 27-year-old from Utrecht were arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking and money laundering and participating in a criminal enterprise.

A second case concerns four Dutch nationals suspected of swapping bitcoins for euros after obtaining bitcoins from illegal activity. The men fled to Malta in 2015 when banks became suspicious of their activities.

Also read: Report: Netherlands dominates darknet trade

The third case concerns an international investigation of a money laundering gang that used bitcoins. In January 2015, Dutch prosecutors announced the arrest of 10men suspected of using bitcoin to launder up to 20 million euros. It was reported that the suspects were seen as facilitators to drug dealers operating on the Dark Web laundering bitcoins.

Traders from this gang used cashers, parties that exchange bitcoins for euros.

According to the Dutch report, there are approximately 50 so-called cryptomarkets and vendor shops and the Netherlands occupies a crucial position in the European illicit drugs markets.

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Dutch Authorities Look to Deem 'Bitcoin Mixers' as Money Laundering - CryptoCoinsNews