Today we got another reminder that volatility is working both ways.

Bitcoin has fabulous times since entering the new decade. However, when we see such a parabolic move to the upside, we can expect volatile moves to the other side, as well.

Just yesterday, we mentioned Bitcoin price reaching its first major test the 200-days moving average line (marked light green on the following chart). Many analysts see this tough resistance as the barrier between Bear and Bull markets.

Today, Bitcoin surpassed the crucial moving average line (roughly around $9060). However, shortly after recording a daily high (and year to date) at $9188 (Bitstamp), we received a MEGA dump.

Besides, on the 4-hour chart, we can clearly see Bitcoin reaching the top area of the marked ascending channel.

Bitcoin lost over $700, plunging to the $8400 old resistance level. As of writing these lines, Bitcoin had recovered a bit, trading above the $8600 resistance level.

So far, there is no reason to panic, in my opinion. Its OK not to overcome the significant MA-200 at the first chance.

Another thing to keep in mind is the CME Futures Friday low at $8720. This means that as of now, there will be a positive price gap.

Following the drop, the total market cap had reached $250 billion at the top before losing over $13 billion in less than 60 minutes.

Total Market Cap: $237.5 billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $157.5 billion

BTC Dominance Index: 66.4%

*Data by CoinGecko

Support/Resistance levels: Bitcoin is now trying to keep above the $8600 resistance turned support level. If the last breaks, then the $8300 $8400 strong support area will be the next level, along with the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%.

Further below lies the $8000 area, along with the 100-days moving average line (marked by white). This also contains the bottom trend-line of the ascending channel.

From above, $8730 will be the first level of resistance Bitcoin will face (38.2% Fib level). The next major resistance is $8900, along with the Golden Fib of %61.8.

Further above is $9000, along with the most significant resistance at the current price area the 200-days moving average line.

The RSI Indicator: The RSI that was hovering at its highest levels since June had plunged together with the price. It will be interesting to see if the RSI can hold the mini-ascending trend-line.

A bearish sign might be coming on behalf of the Stochastic RSI oscillator, as it made a bearish cross-over and about to enter the neutral territory, which can ignite a further correction.

Trading volume: We need to keep in mind that the vast move is taking place during the weekend when its easier to shift the markets.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency chartsby TradingView.Technical analysis tools byCoinigy.

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Bitcoin Just Plunged $700 Upon Reaching The MA-200: Healthy Correction or Reason To Panic? Price Analysis & Overview - CryptoPotato

Bitcoin price (BTC) closed the week at $8,180 representing an 11% gain for the week after struggling to break the resistance at $7,600 for most of November and December. The price is down around 1% on Monday but the bulls have retained the $8K handle.

Total market cap excluding Bitcoin was up 12.5% last week meaning that altcoins are starting to gain some market share from Bitcoin, which is impressive given BTCs impressive week and counter to the general downtrend that has been in place since summer.

Cryptocurrency market 24-hour view. Source:Coin360

After an impressive week of gains, Bitcoin is now trading above the 50,100 and 200 weekly moving averages while staying above $8,000 on Monday, which is one of the larger areas of volume from 2019.

The bulls started the week on a positive note having broken the 7-week resistance of $7,600 and retaining the $8K level early through the week. Maintaining above $8,000 and printing higher lows will be an important task to demonstrate that the bulls have the strength to reclaim the higher trading range between $7.5K and $9.5K.

BTC USD Weekly chart. Source: Tradingview

The weekly Bollinger Bands show Bitcoin hard up against the 20-week moving average. Losing this level in September was definitive in confirming the downtrend in recent months and breaking it back in March 2019 defined the following uptrend.

In both of the previous two occasions, it did little to act as resistance but it did act as initial resistance last week. Clearly, this will be important to watch in the coming weeks.

BTC USD Weekly chart. Source: Tradingview

The spot volume for BTC/USD has been in decline since the climactic selloff in June 2019. It is notable that the most significant weeks of volume have all been supporting a move higher. The moving average convergence divergence indicator, or MACD, has been showing divergence on its histogram since October but requires a bullish signal cross to confirm it.

Given where the MACD is, this would most likely coincide with it crossing its zero line, which would add confluence to it being bullish. Until this occurs, however, this remains an unconfirmed signal.

BTC USD Weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The daily Bitcoin chart shows that BTC has broken both the 50 and 100-day moving averages relatively quickly over the past two weeks.

The 100-day moving average is now acting as support after Bitcoin was held up around the mid-$8,000s, which is the middle of the previous trading range that Bitcoin held through October.

BTC USD 1 Day Chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price is currently consolidating above resistance and the most significant volume node on the visible profile visible range, or VPVR. If Bitcoin can complete bullish consolidation above $8,000, a measured move to the upside would take the price of Bitcoin to the top of the previous range at $9,500 and possibly as high as the next high volume node of $10,100.

The MACD has remained crossed bullish, trending above zero so the outlook remains positive for the bulls who need to show strength turning previous weekly resistance into support.

BTC USD 1 Day Chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that consolidation is occurring around the $8,000 level. There is a hint of a general descending diagonal resistance in price but selloffs have been met by buying interest so far resulting in a sideways action.

Should the price of Bitcoin break down at this point, it seems likely that there would be a response around the 61.8% level of the bounce last week, which would potentially lead to a higher low between $7,800-$7,900.

Failure to find support here would lead to Bitcoin painting an Inverted Adam and Eve topping pattern, which would put downward pressure on previous support, suggesting that demand may need to be retested back at $7,000.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Looking at the CME futures, the price gap created over the weekend was filled quickly on Monday. One thing to note is the volume on the futures contract was largest during the most recent bounce backtesting the mid $7,000s. Volume overall is in decline through this period of consolidation and looks likely to be reaching a pivotal point within the next 24 hours.

The premium has now settled to around $50 above the spot price, having been as high as $180 at the highs last week, meaning the market has returned to a more modest state of contango, which is a healthier outlook.

The BitMEX funding rate is also above zero, which generally has an inverse relationship with price as a leading indicator. Despite this, it is by no means near the overheated levels seen at market tops.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The picture is fairly clear for Bitcoin. Previous horizontal resistance has been broken and the bulls need to turn this now into support. There is a debate about whether Bitcoin has broken out of its diagonal resistance so this will remain a key point of contention, which many are looking towards as a sign of a definitive change in trend.

Breaking above key moving averages, supported by a local trend change in volume, paints a positive picture. But failure to capitalize on the early 2020 gains could see the bears reclaim control and take Bitcoin to new lows.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin Holding $8K as Support but What Will it Take to Break $10K? - Cointelegraph

Crypto analyst Josh Rager is calling out a myriad of predictions that say Bitcoin could hit anywhere from $100,000 to $1 million in a new bull cycle.

In an update for his 62,000 followers on Twitter, the popular analyst is outlining what he says is a much more realistic target.

Unpopular Opinion: The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think.

Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M. Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle. In my opinion, next high hits $75k to $85k.

Just a word of caution for some of you who wait until $100k to $1M Bitcoin to take profits. Dont let greed get the best of you this time. When you see Bitcoin all over media and everyone outside crypto Twitter talking about crypto, its likely the top in, whether thats $50k, $75k, or $100k.

If Bitcoin can break $10,350, Rager says its game on for a new long-term rally.

Prices to Watch: $9400s Held as support for June-Sept range, significant area to break

$10,350s Point of control, highest volume traded at this price point from May to December

Breaking $10,350s, In my opinion, will confirm next big uptrend with 5-digit BTC for months to come.

Rager is also outlining the lowest he thinks BTC could drop in the weeks and months ahead. He expects $6,400 to act as a floor and highlights $10,000 as a critical line of support in a new bull phase.

Fixed range volume profile shows the importance of point of control (POC) for a major range to act as support. 2018 POC held as support at $6,400s. In my opinion, we should see the 2019 POC act as support at $10,100. Price should stay above $10,100 on its way to new all-time high.

More:
Bitcoin (BTC) Pop to $1 Million Not Happening This Cycle, Heres Where It Will Land According to Analyst Josh Rager - The Daily Hodl

Whale activity is picking up steam as a big week in the crypto markets comes to a close.

In a 12-hour span, an anonymous crypto whale moved 16,001 Bitcoin (BTC), worth $140.6 million, from the crypto exchange OKEx to an unknown wallet.

While its possible that the whale is OKEx itself moving funds on behalf of its customers, the exchange has not announced plans to move mass funds. The transfers come a day after Bitfinex reportedly moved 123,447 Bitcoin worth $1.1 billion between two of its wallets.

Heres a look at all of the large OKEx transfers in the last day.

Meanwhile, traders are also following a lone crypto whale who moved 27,000,000 XRP worth $6.3 million from the crypto exchange Bithumb to an unknown wallet.

27,000,000 #XRP (6,320,422 USD) transferred from #Bithumb to unknown wallet

Tx: https://t.co/cTFFpOSJ3e

Whale Alert (@whale_alert) January 17, 2020

Both Ethereum and XRP whale activity has been limited over the past week.

Regarding the second and third largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, the most talked-about transfer was a movement of 100,000,000 XRP from Ripple. The payments startup, which owns more than half of all XRP in existence, moved the trove of XRP, which is worth $21.8 million, out of an escrow wallet on Tuesday.

The transfer frees up funds for Ripple to sell to institutions over-the-counter and on crypto exchanges. In recent months, Ripple has reduced the amount of XRP its selling. In the third quarter of 2019, the company reported selling XRP totaling $66 million, down from $251 million in the second quarter.

Ripples fourth quarter report is expected this month.

Read more here:
$140,600,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) Exits Cryptocurrency Exchange As Whale Moves $6,320,422 in XRP - The Daily Hodl

Over the past few hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has started to show signs of a bullish trend. As of the time of writing this, the leading cryptocurrency has reached $8,290 the highest price the BTC has traded at since the local top at $8,450 put in on January the 7th from the $8,050 daily low put in on Monday.

While this 3% jump is far from a stable uptrend, analysts are convinced that the crypto markets short-term rally isnt done yet.

Full-time trader Cold Blooded Shiller noted that this latest move has allowed Bitcoin to decisively break out of a pennant chart pattern. This breakout suggests BTC will rally 6% in the coming days towards $8,750 in a best-case scenario.

Joe McCann, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst and Cloud and AI specialist at Microsoft, noted in his Telegram channel that the 10-day moving average and 100-day moving average have just seen their first bull crossover since September.

McCann did note that he has some worries about the BitMEX funding rate, which implies too much optimism in the crypto market, but noted that the crossover an a triangle pattern that has formed suggests a move to $8,800 in the coming week.

It isnt only the short-term outlook for BTC that is looking strong; key indicators on a weekly basis have started to favor bulls.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Murad Mahmudov, CIO of Bitcoin fund Adaptive Capital, recently shared a textbook chart that applies to any financial market which shows what trends in an assets volume, open interest, and price mean for assets.

The chart shows that the most optimistic scenario for any market is if the assets price, volume, and open interest for its futures market rise in tandem, suggesting strength, bullish price action, and an overall trend of prices rising.

And what do you know! Bitcoin, over the past few weeks, has seen its price, volume, and open interest increase all at once, showing effectively no signs of weakness

On the technical side of things, the Lucid Stop and Reversal indicator, which tracks entries for Bitcoin and other assets, just printed its first buy signal since March 2019.

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Why Analysts Are Bullish After Bitcoin Just Rallied to $8,300 - newsBTC

Getty

A new report (PDF) from Bitwise and ETF Trends has looked into how financial advisors think about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Notably, the report indicates that roughly 9% of independent registered investment advisors (RIA) currently allocate a percentage of client funds to crypto assets. According to the report, the rate of crypto investment among independent RIAs is higher than the rates found with financial planners, wirehouse representatives, and broker dealers due to the relative lack of restrictions independent RIAs face in terms of the types of investments theyre able to make on behalf of their clients.

While overall allocation among financial advisors is still low at around 6%, the report indicates a potential doubling or more for this sort of activity in 2020 based on survey responses.

A variety of reasons for potentially adding Bitcoin exposure to client portfolios are provided in the survey, but the fact that the cryptocurrency is largely uncorrelated with other asset classes is the most highly-cited factor for financial advisors.

According to the report from Bitwise and ETF Trends, 54% of financial advisors view Bitcoins lack of correlation to other asset classes as a reason to add the crypto asset (or one of its competitors) to client portfolios.

That finding aligns with Bitwises qualitative view of how the primary narrative surrounding the investment aspects of crypto evolved in 2019, the report adds. From our perspective, 2019 saw a significant uptick amongst both the mainstream media and traditional Wall Street analysts in discussing crypto as a safe haven asset and a new form of digital gold. That messaging appears to have resonated with the financial advisor community.

To Bitwises point, data from the second half of 2019 appears to show that Bitcoins role as a digital gold is going from theory to reality. Additionally, one industry executive pointed to this increasing view of Bitcoin as a digital gold when making a $50,000 Bitcoin price prediction for 2020.

That said, only 9% of financial advisors surveyed in the report view inflation hedging as a reason to add crypto assets to a portfolio. The report states that part of the reason for this seemingly low positive response rate could be due to a lack of concern regarding inflation today.

Notably, the percentage of financial advisors who said they would choose commodities as the area from which to pull capital for a potential crypto asset investment doubled from the 2019 version of the same survey, which could be viewed as another indication of growing sentiment around Bitcoin as a digital gold.

In addition to the potential for returns uncorrelated with other assets, 30% of financial advisors said the high potential returns found in the crypto market made exposure to this asset class attractive for client portfolios. Additionally, 26% of financial advisors view client demand as a reason for Bitcoins attractiveness, with another 23% enjoying the fact that its simply something new to offer their clients.

Of course, there are still a number of issues with allocating client funds to the crypto market, which is why the vast majority of financial advisors still do not feel comfortable with this proposition.

In terms of specific road blocks in making a crypto asset investment with client funds, financial advisors included in the survey pointed to these issues:

According to the report, the high degree of concern around regulation could be related to the level of scrutiny Facebooks Libra project received from regulators and lawmakers after it was announced. Of course, there are key differences with how Libra and Bitcoin work at a fundamental level.

Additionally, the first 40 Act-approved Bitcoin fund was recently announced, which has led ETF Trends CEO Tom Lydon to claim there is a 60% chance for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in 2020.

Link:
Heres Why Some Financial Advisors Are Adding Bitcoin To Client Portfolios - Forbes

Bitcoin price (BTC) increased over 10% over the past week, so it didnt take long for the usual crypto Twitter suspects to start screaming that they are all bullish now. Even I saw some bullish momentum as outlined in last week's analysis, but have we seen the bottom yet? Or is there more downside to come before we resume a bull trend?

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Working backward through various time frames, a look at the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) shows it crossed bearishly on Dec. 1 and the first red candle on the histogram was printed.

Bitcoin has never seen a single candle before changing the bias on the MACD in its entire history. As its one of the most widely used indicators for momentum trading, this indicates that there is bound to be a longer downward period than most traders would like to admit.

However, one positive that is worth taking note of is that the last bullish phase was the shortest the MACD has seen on Bitcoin, just 6 months of green before flipping red. As such, speculating on how much longer we could expect a bear market for is difficult.

If these phases are getting smaller and smaller the optimist in me suggests 4 months before we see a true bottom and reversal, which would put the pivot around April 1, 2020.

BTC USD BB monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Using a combination of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator and the monthly volume for Bitcoin, its impossible to ignore how much volume has dropped off over the last 2 years. This can be interpreted in many ways. Some may view breakouts in these conditions as very short term pumps, as theres no real interest in the asset, or some may see it as a time to be greedy when others are fearful and start accumulating.

Im off the view, that theres no interest in Bitcoin, therefore the price movements were witnessing are short term pumps as whales continue to offload their bags as they wait for the bottom.

The moving average (MA) of the BB shows $7,100 as critical support for Bitcoin. Should the price fall below $7,100 and this price level flips to resistance, we can then expect the price of Bitcoin to slowly make its way towards the support of the BB which is currently $2,500-$3,200 depending on your BB settings.

I see the bottom BB support at $3,200. However, I dont believe we will get this low. The support on the BB is gradually getting higher by the month. If it continues at this trajectory, the support could be as high as $3,800 by April 1, 2020.

This to me is a plausible target date for the bottom since the upcoming halving is expected in May, and Im not the only person that shares this view. Twitter user @22loops called the 2019 bottom with astonishing accuracy last year, and hes at again with his new year's tweet that puts Bitcoin price at around $3,797.

BTCUSD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Moving over to the weekly BB, we can see where Bitcoin faltered last week. It was rejected precisely at the MA of $8,462 leaving the digital asset in the lower part of the Bollinger Bands.

Therefore, until Bitcoin flips the MA to support, theres no real reason to be bullish just yet.

The support here shows $6,330 as the last stronghold for Bitcoin before beginning to accept the likelihood of a sub-$4,000 Bitcoin price. However, should Bitcoin find itself on another run, breaking past the $10,000 barrier doesnt seem to be where the issue is, but slightly higher around $10,500 seems to be where wed expect to see BTC struggle.

Currently, both of these scenarios are too early to call, but with that being said, the weekly MACD is definitely giving a reason for the bulls to be excited.

BTCUSD weekly RSI chart. Source: TradingView

Whilst Im a big fan of following the weekly MACD as a very reliable indicator for Bitcoin, there is one element that I cant overlook in its current setup. If the Bitcoin price continues to stay in its current range for another 2-3 weeks, the MACD line is set to cross bullish.

However, the positioning around the zero line doesnt look too hot. If we take a look at the last 2 bullish crosses, they occurred at - 472 and -899 with the latter being the cross that had more momentum.

The cross at -472 resulted in some bullish momentum, but shortly after, the Bitcoin price fell again, and it crossed into a bear trend. What is concerning here, is that should Bitcoin cross bullish on the weekly MACD, its likely to occur somewhere around -200 below the zero line. But what does that mean for the next bullish move?

History tells us, that perhaps its too early to be screaming Bitcoin bull run from the rooftops just yet, and this is further echoed by the rather weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which is currently only showing a reading of 46.53 on the weekly timeframe.

The daily charts, however, are starting to tell a story of what to expect when you combine all 4 indicators mentioned in this analysis.

BTCUSD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Above is what I see as a short setup. The Bitcoin price is at the top of the BB. The RSI is overbought, and the volume is declining, however, volume is typically thinner at the weekends.

The last thing Id look at is for the MACD to cross down. At present, the MACD is still strong and is yet to show signs of crossing down.

If theres a decline in the price, the MACD will start to cross down, and from here Id be looking at the BB MA as my target price which is $7,400; and this target I feel is realistic due to the gap left on the CME chart.

BTCUSD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The CME is showing a gap at $7,685. Whilst this is a very tight gap that some may argue nearly closed last week, the fact remains it is there on the charts for all to see.

Closing this gap would most certainly force the daily MACD to cross bearish, and potentially end the bullish momentum for the price of Bitcoin.

If the CME gap fills, and Bitcoin continues to fall from $7,865, then the levels of support to watch would be $7,400. If this level fails to hold, the monthly MA on the Bollinger Bands shows that $7,100 is the price to defend.

If both these levels hold, the last chance saloon for Bitcoin is $6,800 before the hodler doomsday scenarios start playing out, and from here Id be looking for another MACD bear to bull cycle before being bullish again.

Not much has changed since last week. The daily and weekly MACD are both bullish and should Bitcoin continue on this path the key resistance that must be broken remains at $8,500.

Breaking this level would change the path of Bitcoin massively, opening up much larger leaps in price towards $10,500-$11,000 levels. That being said, 2-3 weeks of flat price action is equally bullish for Bitcoin in the medium term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

See the article here:
Bitcoin Price $4K by April? One Big Reason to Not Be Bullish Just Yet - Cointelegraph

Over the past two days, we saw Bitcoin reaching the $9000 zone, quickly getting rejected, and now Bitcoin is once again a touch away from 2020 high.

Two bullish signs to keep an eye on is the fact that Bitcoin corrected accurately into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which is considered a healthy correction of a rising trend. The second fact is the fact that the coin is forming an ascending channel (marked on the following 4-hour chart).

On the other hand, this channel can easily breakdown, and things can change quickly.

The $9000 resistance area contains the significant 200-days moving average line, currently hovering around $9050 (marked by a green line on the following daily chart). By no doubt, this is the first significant test of the new decade.

By many analysts, a must-have condition for a bull market is the asset being traded above that line. Bitcoin will have to show strength and decide soon how it interacts with the primary resistance line.

If we put aside the false breakout during November, when we saw the substantial daily 42% surge, the last time Bitcoin was trading above the MA-200 took place during late September 2019.

Total Market Cap: $244.0 billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $161.5 billion

BTC Dominance Index: 66.2%

*Data by CoinGecko

Support/Resistance levels: As of writing these lines, Bitcoin is finding support on the lower line of the ascending channel (marked on the 4-hour chart). This is the first level of support, along with $8800. Further below lies $8570 $8600 (the 38.2% Fib level). Down below is $8400 (61.8% Fib level).

From above, the next major resistance level, as mentioned, is the $9000 price area along with the MA-200. In case of a breakout, then Bitcoin is likely to surge quickly to $9300 $9400. Further above lies $9600 and $9800.

The RSI Indicator: The RSI is building a bullish triangle formation, which can fuel a possible breakout of the $9000 area. This is the highest level of the momentum indicator since June (when Bitcoin spiked to $13,880).

Trading volume: Since Tuesday, the volume had been decreased, however, the trading volume is still high compared to the monthly average.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency chartsby TradingView.Technical analysis tools byCoinigy.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: This Is The First Major Test Of 2020 In The Road To $10,000 BTC - CryptoPotato